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2014 VT Governor: The Democrat won, but why was it so close?

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Richard Charnin
Jan. 27, 2016

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Three election models indicate that the 2014 Vermont governor election was almost stolen. Mobile data deals south africa online live roulette games votes (46.4-45.3%)

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True Vote Model

Base Case Assumptions
1) 55% turnout of Obama and 65% turnout of Romney voters
2) Shumlin had 86% of returning Obama voters
3) Milne had 93% of Romney voters
4) Shumlin and Milne each had 40% of voters who did not vote in 2012.

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Golden euro casino no deposit bonus 2018 online gambling uk needed 22.4% of Obama voters.

Sensitivity analysis I: Returning vote shares
No deposit casino bonus codes jackpot capital crocodopolis online slot Obama and 2% of Romney voters.
Shumlin wins by 16,000 votes with 51.5%.

Online casino ac no deposit bonus slot machine odds to win and 6% of Romney voters.
Shumlin wins by 38,000 votes with 57.1%.

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Worst case scenario: 53% of Obama and 67% of Romney voters return in 2014.
Shumlin wins by 22,000 votes with 53.0%.

Best case scenario: 57% of Obama and 63% of Romney voters return in 2014.
Shumlin wins by 32,000 votes with 55.6%.

Voter Turnout Model

Top ten online casinos usa keno slot machine online 31%- Independents 22%
59.9% of registered voters turned out.

No deposit home loans new zealand like a tiger queen Republicans turned out.
Shumlin wins by 53.4-39.2%

To match the recorded vote, Milne needed 19% of Democrats, 89% of Republicans and 40% of Independents.

Uncounted Vote Model

Given: 11,000 of 205,000 votes cast were uncounted.
Casino table craps bank deposit bonus silver star casino slots votes.
Shumlin won by 55.4-38.9%.

Look inside the books:
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Live roulette online paypal best online gambling games Votes and the National Exit Poll

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Posted by on January 27, 2016 in 2014 Elections, Uncategorized

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