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Jan. 25, 2016
An analysis of three election models indicates that the 2014 Michigan governor election may have been stolen.
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True Vote Model
Given: Obama won Michigan in 2012 by 450,000 recorded votes (54.1-44.6%).
This is conservative; he likely did better.
Base Case Assumptions
1) 60% turnout of Obama and Romney voters,
2) Schauer had 91% of returning Obama voters
3) Snyder had 91% of Romney voters
4) Schauer and Snyder each had 48% of voters who did not vote in 2012.
Base Case True Vote: Schauer won by 223,000 votes: 52.4-45.3%
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Sensitivity analysis I: Returning vote shares
Worse case scenario: Schauer has 87% of returning Obama and 5% of Romney voters.
Schauer wins by 52,000 votes with 49.7%.
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Schauer wins by 393,000 votes with 55.1%.
Sensitivity analysis II: 2012 voter turnout in 2014
Slots zeus myth heiwa slot machine value of Romney voters return in 2014.
Schauer wins by 145,000 votes with 51.2%.
Best case scenario: 62% of Obama and 58% of Romney voters return in 2014.
Schauer wins by 300,000 votes with 53.7%.
Voter Turnout Model
Times tables made easy casino bus trips toledo ohio recorded vote, Snyder needed 9.6% of Democrats, 91% of Republicans and a whopping 64% of Independents.
Actual Party registration: Democrats 44%- Republicans 37%- Independents 19% live casino shows online roulette real money paypal
Given: 60.8% of registered voters turned out.
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Schauer wins by 50.4-47.4% (94,000 votes)
Uncounted Vote Model
Given: 278 thousand of 3.416 million votes cast were uncounted.
Assumption: Schauer had 75% of the uncounted votes.
Schauer won by 368,000 votes (54.3-43.5%)
Jan BenDor writes:
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