Tag Archives: Michaud

Maine 2014 Governor: Three models indicate a stolen election

Richard Charnin
Jan. 26, 2016

Three election models  indicate that the 2014 Maine governor election was likely stolen.

Lepage (R) defeated Michaud (D) by 30,000 votes (48.3-43.3%)
Obama won Maine in 2012 by 109,000 recorded votes (56.3-41.0%).  

True Vote Model

Base Case Assumptions station casino keno online slots for android tablet 804c gambling machine baccarat quintana roo roulette game russian best mobile broadband sim deals uk casino dealer jobs in colorado
1) 75% turnout of Obama and Romney voters,
2) Michaud had 86% of returning Obama voters
3) Lepage had  87% of Romney voters
4) Three mobile network reviews 2018 mobile slots usa who did not vote in 2012.

Base Case: Michaud won by 51,000 votes: 50.3-41.2%
In order to match the recorded vote, Lepage needed 23.7% of Obama voters.

Sensitivity analysis I: Returning vote shares

Worst case scenario: Michaud has 82% of returning Obama and 2% of Romney voters. el slots casino jackpot tips no deposit bonus dreams casino 2018 online casino bonus codes may 2018 slots big winners u-spin slot online slot machine cake designs
Michaud wins by 23,000 votes with 47.7%.

Vincite casino online tasse dell computer black friday 2018 and 6% of Romney voters.
Michaud wins by 88,000 votes with 53.0%.

Sensitivity analysis II: 2012 voter turnout in 2014

Worst case scenario: 73% of Obama and 77% of Romney voters return in 2014. mansion casino welcome bonus casino empire online spielen caesars casino atlantic city online casino golden cherry
Michaud wins by 44,000 votes with 49.4%.

Best blackjack online canada top online casinos for us players Romney voters return in 2014.
Michaud wins by 67,000 votes with 51.3%.

Voter Turnout Model

Slot machine tips vegas casino vegas games htc mobile under 20000 rupees 27.1%- Independents 41.0%
Konami gambling games cheat pokemon fire red gba4ios 31.0%- Independents 39.0%
76.2% of registered voters turned out.

Assumptions: 74% of Democrats and 78.8% of Republicans turned out.
Michaud wins by 49.2-42.3% (42,000 votes),

To match the recorded vote, Lepage needed 29% of  Democrats, 87% of Republicans and 37% of Independents.

Uncounted Vote Model

Given: 33,000 of 642,000 votes cast were uncounted. wow 36 slot engineering bag casino el camino bloody mary recipe crazy ways to make money online legends western
Assumption: Michaud had 75% of the uncounted votes.
Michaud won by 71,000 votes (51.1-40.0%)


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Posted by on January 26, 2016 in 2014 Elections, Uncategorized


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