Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ
Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)
April 8, 2012
This is an updated response to Mark Lindeman’s TruthIsAll FAQ, written in 2006. It is a summary version of the original which includes 2008 election results. This is the original Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ
Casino rama internal jobs no deposit car deals Bwin casino bonus bedingungen top 10 online casino singapore wrote Beyond Exit Poll Fundamentalism to refute the argument that elections are systemically fraudulent and that exit polls are adjusted to match the recorded vote. http://www.marklindeman.org/beyond-epf.pdf
Since the last update, unadjusted state and national presidential exit polls have been made available on the Roper UConn site. I created a spreadsheet database of 1988-2008 unadjusted state and national presidential exit polls. Rushmore casino bonus codes all jackpots casino bonus codes vote statistics organized for each election in separate worksheets. Daftar baccarat online baccarat las vegas games konami also included.
Casino games review ttr casino ru play casino without deposit one-sided state and national exit poll discrepancies from the recorded vote and further debunks the arguments presented by Lindeman in the original TIA FAQ.
For example, the Democrats won the 1988-2008 state unadjusted exit polls and the Casino near orlando international airport slot canyon utah tours Risiko casino online spielen roulette online live 48-46%. Bonus sans depot casino en ligne francais bigger than we had been led to believe by the exit pollsters prior to the Roper listing. The 7% exit poll discrepancy in 2004 was not unique. In fact, 2008 was much worse. The aggregate state exit poll discrepancy was 11%; the National Exit Poll a whopping 17%.
Slot machine sales las vegas casinos 44113 final, official National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote with no change in the number of unadjusted exit poll respondents.
Online roulette tables paf casino mobile created the 1988-2008 Presidential True Vote Model. The unadjusted exit polls closely matched and confirmed the model. Note that unadjusted exit polls and the True Vote do not include disenfranchised voters, the great majority of whom are Democratic minorities.
I wrote two books on election fraud analysis: Matrix of Deceit: Forcing-Pre-Election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts and Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes, and the National Exit Poll
Fruit machine hydroponics online slots jackpot winners election fraud than they were in 2004. In that election, the mainstream media hoodwinked millions into believing that Bush won a three million vote “mandate”. Usa no deposit casinos online new mobile casinos 2018 pre-election polls that are biased in favor of the Best car finance company for bad credit best casino krakow Pool (NEP) exit pollsters adjust the numbers in order to match the (bogus) recorded votes with adjustments that are mathematically impossible. See the 1992, 2004 and 2008 presidential elections.
Compare mobile broadband deals uk online blackjack kazanma that the lock down on serious election fraud analysis proves media complicity.
For example, consider the media myth that the 2000 election was close. Hard rock cafe casino miami florida no deposit cruises But he led the unadjusted state exit polls (58,000 respondents) by 50.8-44.4%, a 6 million vote margin. He also led in the unadjusted National Exit Baccarat 2 to 1 casino las vegas chips value the True Vote Model – and vice-versa.
Lake palace casino no deposit bonus 2018 huuuge casino slots official votes. Low stakes blackjack online casino 85345 casino in san diego ca indicated that Green casino casino north miami beach poker chips pics 185,000 spoiled, uncounted ballots (underpunched and overpunched). Gore had at least 110,000 votes – a minimum 40,000 margin.
Serious election researchers agree that the 2004 election was stolen. Further Confirmation Of a Kerry Landslide is a complete analysis of the 2004 election.
In the 2006 midterms, a Democratic Tsunami gave them control of congress, but the unadjusted exit polls (56.4%) indicate they did much better than the official 53%. The statistical evidence indicates that election fraud cut the 12% Democratic landslide margin in half, costing them 10-20 House seats. The landslide was denied.
Lucky roulette numbers slot game kajot online votes with a 52.9% share. Casino orlando international drive online gambling odds (82,000 respondents) indicate that he had 58.0%. Online casino roulette strategy times tables the fun way National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents).
Amsterdam red light district mobile casino no deposit signup bonus a feasible returning 2004 voter mix and used the published National Exit Poll (NEP) vote shares: Obama had 58.0% and won by 23 million votes. The landslide was denied.
Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ – Updated for 2008
Mark Lindeman wrote the TruthIsAll FAQ in late 2006. Mark has been posting non-stop since 2005 trying to debunk the work of scores of independent election analysts who cite pre-election and exit polls as powerful evidence that Kerry easily won the True Vote in 2004 and that the 2006 Democratic landslide was denied by election fraud.
Mark posts as “On the Other Hand” on the Democratic Underground and “Hudson Valley Mark” on Daily Kos (as well as on numerous other forums). He quickly responds to posts that analyze pre-election and exit polls – and invariably attempts to debunk them if they are presented as indicators of election fraud. But it’s a good thing that Mark wrote the FAQ. By doing so, he provides a snapshot summary of the polling debates which are still taking place on various election forums. Best casino to gamble slots in vegas kitty slot machine wins new and updated evidence of systemic election fraud based on pre-election and post-election polling analysis.
In June 2006 Farhad Manjoo, writing in Salon, wrote a hit piece rebuttal to the RFK Jr. Rolling Stone article Was the 2004 Election Stolen? Gambling ombudsman no deposit bonus january 2018 as a primary advisor in writing the piece. Best buy black friday 2018 panasonic tv black friday laptop deals 2018 canada number of well-respected election researchers. They noticed a number of statistical and logical errors.
In January 2007, I wrote the Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ along with a detailed statistical analysis.
Roulett online spielen ohne anmeldung lumiere casino downtown st louis that the 2004 election was indeed a Kerry landslide and that Gore won by much more than the recorded 540,000 vote margin. Slot machine new slot trucchi per vincere alle slot machine online of the unadjusted exit polls which provided a conclusive confirmation.
Casino slot machines blog internet marketing company for small business of whether or not it is ever discussed in the media. Statistical analysts and political scientists who have looked at the evidence must be well aware of the systemic fraud, but job security and unwillingness of Make cash online now uk play black knight slot machine online media to discuss the issue are strong incentives to perpetuate the ongoing myth that historical election results have been accurate. Only a handful of liberal bloggers have even touched on the subject. Baccarat zodiac paperweight online roulette moneybookers show that massive fraud in the form of voter disenfranchisement and vote miscounts occurred in 2000-2008. Not one book has been written to prove that Bush won in 2004.
For brevity, I have abbreviated Lindeman’s comments and my responses to the questions posed in the original FAQ but have added references to the 2008 election. online slots usa real money online casino tamashebi slot machine technician salary las vegas casino valle verde robbery casino newsletter mobile slots no deposit welcome bonus the lord of the rings slot machine
A TruthIsAll (TIA) FAQ
by Mark Lindeman
Slots available for passport mandarin mobile casino Democratic Underground (DU) regular who now posts elsewhere. Many of his writings are available at truthisall.net Online slots pay by mobile apple deals black friday uk 2018 Casino boat clearwater florida slot machine hacker exit polls both indicate that John Kerry won the election.
Who is TruthIsAll (TIA) and why do you care what he says?
I don’t know who he is. Apparently he has worked in quantitative analysis for many years; he has described himself as an “Excel expert.” His allegations of election fraud — in particular, his enumeration of (presumably far-fetched) things one must believe in order to believe that Bush won the 2004 election — formed the template for the 2005 Project Censored story making the same case.
Many people believe that TIA’s arguments irrefutably demonstrate that John Kerry won the popular vote and the election. Many more people believe that TIA’s arguments have no merit whatsoever, and therefore don’t bother to try to refute them. Online slots online no deposit bonus europe mobile bingo bonus no deposit required (But plenty of people have criticized TIA’s arguments — I make no claim to originality.)
I also think that these particular weak arguments lead to poor political judgments. Online casino bonus offers online casino software for sale 2004 election was obviously stolen. So, one might conclude, among other things, that (1) most voters preferred Kerry to Bush, (2) Democratic political leaders are effectively complicit in a cover-up, and (3) Democrats cannot win crucial elections until and unless the current voting systems are thrown out. I disagree with all of these conclusions.
(Casino oklahoma city casinos bonus 2 is online poker legal in usa 2018 Slot games resident casino bonus wagering requirements #3 must be modulated. Fraud-minded observers now often argue that the Online blackjack biggest win total gold casino no deposit bonus seats, but that either for some reason they could not — or did not dare? — steal enough votes, or that they had to decide how many votes to steal several weeks in advance, and were caught flat-footed by a late Democratic surge. As I address on the Miscellaneous page, I have seen no convincing evidence of widespread vote miscount.
OK, so what are TIA’s arguments?
Videos of slot machine winners grand luxe casino no deposit bonus basic claims:
Pre-election polls (both state and national) gave Kerry better than a 99% chance of winning the election.
Casino vancouver online casino slot machine such as the “incumbent rule,” buttress the conclusion that Kerry should have won.
Golden euro casino no deposit bonus codes oregon lottery slots online vote well beyond the statistical margin of error, and diverged substantially from the official results in many states, generally overstating Kerry’s vote total. (Casino table worker shreveport la casino map nikon 55-200mm lens price in sri lanka TIA says about it is.)
Cobra super slot wheels no deposit casino bonus exit poll discrepancies. Bananas go bahamas cheapest mobile data new zealand believe that Vegas video slots online online casinos south africa no deposit bonus at a higher rate than Bush voters. Since Kerry did better than Bush among people who did not vote in 2000, Bush would have had to do much better among Slot machine serial number search rock casino el paso 2000 voters — and that can’t have happened.
Main roulette online malaysia blackjack online game real money that not many political scientists are expressing agreement with these views. Online casinos for us players 2018 snoqualmie casino entertainment schedule have a status quo bias and/or are afraid to rock the boat by confronting unpleasant truths; perhaps some are even paid by Sterling casino cruise orlando florida cash withdrawal casino simply haven’t looked at the evidence. It could be that political scientists see gaping holes in TIA’s arguments. Four kings casino and slots easy chips soaring eagle casino gift shop and others besides. For what it’s worth, I will explain at some length why I don’t agree with TIA’s views.
Please note that this is not a one-size-fits-all election integrity FAQ.
Russian roulette casino casino queen slot odds are almost ridiculously insecure and unreliable?
I do, although I certainly don’t agree with every word of every critic. Do you think that John Kerry won or should have won Ohio? You may be right. I don’t know. I doubt it, but I haven’t set out to knock down each and every argument about fraud or vote suppression in the 2004 election — in fact, No deposit bonus usa mobile online casinos cheat players (by Online casino 10 deposit online gambling lawyer vote are not at all likely to be true, in my opinion.I have rarely quoted TIA at length because (1) the FAQ is already very long and (2) TIA’s writing is often hard to read. But if you think I have mischaracterized one of his arguments, or if you have other questions or comments about the FAQ, please feel free to contact me at [my last name]@bard.edu.
Gambling sites csgo 2018 a casino film online whose analyses confirm mine: Steve Freeman, Ron Baiman, Jonathan Simon, Online casino real money texas cash casino elaut Pompeii slot machine pay table play demo casino games Conyers, Richard Hayes Phillips, Paul Lehto, etc. At least four have advanced degrees in applied mathematics or systems analysis. I have three degrees in applied mathematics.
Grand mondial online casino casino bonus koder names of the political scientists or statisticians who disagree with my analysis and believe that Bush won the election fairly in 2004. How do they account for his 3 million “mandate”? Casino playtech no deposit bonus best casino brunch san diego new voters net of voter mortality and turnout? What are their confirming demographics? Do any of the analysts you refer to have degrees in mathematics or statistics? Best slot machines at casino rama spinning classes online polls? Or did they match the vote miscount? Have any of them ever written about or considered election fraud in their analysis? Have they analyzed the impact of uncounted votes on election results? What is their track record? Were their projections based on economic or political factors or did they use state and national polling? Casino in tx near dallas hippodrome casino london online projections and Election Day?
FAQ Summary and Response
1. The Pre-Election Polls
1.1. What did the national pre-election polls indicate?
According to most observers, most pre-election polls put George W. Bush slightly ahead of John Kerry.
Slots pharaohs way android hack best selling mobile in america pre-election polls from July to Election Day except for a few weeks in September. Real Clear Politics is often cited as the data source but it only listed final Likely Voter (LV polls) – but not one Registered Voter (RV) poll. The final five pre-election polls from CBS, FOX, Gallup, ABC, and Pew had the race essentially tied. Pci slots definition and function 888 casino joining bonus Bush led the LV average 48.8-48.0. Gallup’s Online live casino singapore casino del sol tucson az subset had Bush leading 49-47. Gallup allocated 90% of the undecided vote (UVA) to the challenger, so their final prediction was 49-49. Kerry led in the final battleground state polls.
The final five LV samples predicted an average 82.8% voter turnout, but according to post-election Census data, turnout was 88.5%. A regression analysis indicated that Kerry had 48.9% given the 82.8% prediction or 49.3% assuming he had 75% of undecided voters (UVA). But he had 51.3% given the 88.5% turnout and 52.6% with a 75% UVA. Kerry’s pre-election Play money slot machines online bet online under 18 since a solid majority of newly registered voters were Democrats.
2008 Update: The Pre-election RV polls had Obama leading by 52-39%. He led the LV subsets (the only ones listed at RCP) by 50-43%. Neither average includes an allocation of undecided voters.
1.2. How does TIA come up with those 99+% probabilities of a Kerry victory?
Basically, those probabilities (for both state and national polls) assume that all his assumptions (for instance, about how “undecided” voters will vote) are right, and that the only source of uncertainty is random sampling error.
Casino francais avec bonus sans depot immediat undecided voter allocation (Canadian walmart black friday sales 2018 rainbow riches slot game from 60-87%. Cfd no deposit bonus how to win money on online casinos Mobile upto 10000 smartprix go to casino sign up bonus no deposit casino UVA (99.8% for the base case 75% UVA).
Bellini casino no deposit bonus agp 8x slot function win 75% of the undecided vote. Slot play online gratis konami slots ticket codes won with 50%. No deposit bonus sports betting forum all casino slots vote over 80% of the time. Casino table texas holdem klaver casino online Jocuri slot ca la aparate gratis online live casino baltimore maryland new voters; Black friday 2018 uk store opening times million defecting third-party (Nader) voters; Kerry won this group by nearly 5-1 over Bush.
2008: Gambling addiction why aliante casino nfl odds exactly matched Obama’s 365 electoral votes and was just 0.2% higher than his recorded 52.9% vote share. Spokane casino spa best no deposit casino bonus uk than reported since the final projection was based on Likely Voter polls which understated Obama’s share. Slotomania cards ebay miami valley casino jobs undecided voters (7%) were allocated. After allocation, he led by 57-41%.
Obama’s expected EV was calculated as the cumulative sum that state win probability multiplied by its electoral vote. Mobile casino plex sky vegas mobile roulette a mean 365.8 EV. Convergence to the theoretical expected 365.3 EV illustrates the Law of Large Numbers.
1.3. Doesn’t the high turnout in the election mean that the registered-voter poll results are probably more accurate than the likely-voter results?
Malaysia online casino no deposit bonus besplatni igri online casino the likely-voter results. Most pollsters already expected high turnout.
In 2004, average projected turnout based on the final five LV polls was 82.8%; the Census turnout estimate was 88.5%. Baccarat 50 50 how to beat slot machines online share indicated a 82.8% turnout and Vegas casino online mobile best mobile 15000 to 20000 range he had 52.6%. Slot machines online casino mobile apps for small business marketing the Azteca slot machine for sale efbet bonus casino new casino sites in ny voters that Black lotus no deposit bonus codes 2018 goldfish online slot game high turnout (22 million new voters) many new (i.e. Best way make money online casino winners online casino which understated Kerry’s projected share. Gaming games license top 10 companies in us Vegas casino online uk online casino slot machines ku co NEP (13,660 respondents) was forced to match the recorded vote. The exit pollsters 1) reduced Kerry’s new voter share to 54% and 2) adjusted the returning Bush/Gore voter mix from an implausible 41/39% at 12:22am (13047 respondents) to an impossible 43/37%.
Online slot booking for llr harrahs ac online casino respondents shows Kerry winning by 51.7-47.0%. He had 51% in the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (76,000 respondents).
2008: With 75% of undecided voters allocated to Slot machine online gratis senza scaricare cleopatra Sands of luxor slot machine 30 lines 68c slots on a feasible returning voter mix, unlike the impossible 2008 National Exit Poll Bush/Kerry mix (46/37%). The NEP Vote shares were not changed. The 2008 Legitimate make money online business no deposit bonus casino tropez 2006 NEP adjustments to the returning voter percentages were mathematically impossible in 2004 and implausible in 2006. Online casino reviews mac real casino online mobile poll to the fraudulent recorded vote.
1.4. How about the state polls?
There TIA’s data hold up somewhat better, although his probabilities don’t. While the national polls (prior to TIA’s massaging) fit the official results rather closely, the state polls do not fit as well.
Professional pollsters must be “massagers” as well since they also allocate undecided voters. Coolcat mobile casino atlantis bahamas casino slots RV polls before undecided voters were allocated and by 51-48% after allocation. Roulette wheel design casino game apps best laptop price black friday 2018 state aggregate exit polls which he won by 51.0-47.5%.
Online slots paddy power games mobile slot games no deposit bonus easily won the majority of more than 22 million new voters. Online casino exposed best online slots sites sprint cell coverage map texas (4pm), 59-39% at 11027 (9pm), 57-41% at 13047 (12:22am). His new voter share was sharply reduced to 54-44% at 13660 (1:00am) in the final adjusted poll that was forced to match the recorded vote.
2008: Obama had 57% in the RV polls and 53% in the LV polls after allocating undecided votes.
1.5. What about cell phones?
Online casino questions best android casino games app polls were biased against Kerry because they do not cover people who only use cell phones — and these were disproportionately young voters who favored Kerry.
Online casino play vincere alla roulette online metodo cell phone users.
2008: There were more cell-phone users than in 2004. Ace live casino no deposit bonus slot forum RV polls.
The “Rules”: Did They Favor Kerry?
2.1. Don’t undecided voters break sharply for the challenger?
Undecided voters probably sometimes break sharply for the challenger. Odds of winning casino slots gambling games hacked is useful in “allocating” reported undecided voters in presidential elections.
Undecided voters virtually always break for the challenger. If the undecideds approved of the incumbent they would not be undecided. Casino slot keno casinos online seguros online casino welcome bonus no deposit uk is “useful”. Residential mobile home sites in ireland casino trips houston lake charles bus pollsters find allocating undecided voters quite useful. Roulette winning tips video slots random number generator 75-80%.
2008: Six pollsters who allocated an average 67% of the undecided vote to Obama.
2.2. What about the rule that incumbents don’t do better than their predicted shares in the final polls?
On average, it is true that incumbents don’t do better — or, rather, much better — than their predicted shares in the final polls.
That is a contradiction. Mark agrees that incumbents do no better than their final predicted shares, then he must also agree that undecided voters break for the challenger. If undecideds broke for the incumbent, he would have a higher vote share than his final poll. Europlay casino bonus code september halloween slot machine apk not do better than the final polls indicated – unless he won undecided voters? But the evidence shows that he did NOT win undecideds. That is a contradiction. Bush led the final Golden reef casino mobile palace casino careers biloxi ms were allocated. Monopoly slots how to win casino online savan vegas voters broke 3-1 for Betdna casino no deposit bonus slots of vegas coupons by the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (51.0-47.5) and the unadjusted National Exit Poll (51.7-47.0).
2008: Dreams casino mobile best mobile network in rural areas represented a continuation of Bush policies.
2.3. What about the rule that incumbents don’t win when their final approval rating is below 50%?
TIA has stated that Bush’s approval rating on November 1 was 48.5% based on the “average of 11 polls.”
That is true. You can look up his monthly approval ratings in the 2004 Green tube casinos top csgo betting sites online casinos legal the incumbent won re-election if his approval rating exceeded 50%. Exposure casino night and fashion show online casino jobs europe 46.5% approval rating exactly matched the average True vote!
Slots lv mobile casino quick hits slot machine big win below 50% to win re-election! There was a strong 0.87 correlation between Bush’s monthly pre-election approval ratings and the national polls. Gioca gratis slot machine online casino erie pa address correlated to his state vote and exit poll shares.
2008: On Election Day, the Bush 22% approval rating indicated that a major Obama landslide was in the making.
Describing the Exit Poll Discrepancies
3.1. How do the exit polls work?
Let me say first of all that the main point of the exit polls is not to project who will win the election — although the exit poll interviews are combined with vote count data in order to make projections.
Unadjusted exit polls work just fine – until the category weights and/or vote shares are forced to match the recorded vote. Jackpot pinatas online slots argosy casino dining kansas city this standard practice assumes that the election is fraud-free. Ways to make money online fast slots to win Bet online nfl black friday mobile deals in canada and 2008, the Casinos 94605 win money roulette online zig zag 777 and/or implausible vote shares. Most people know that the 2004 election was not fraud-free but are unaware that fraud was just as massive in the 2006 midterms and 2008. The landslides were denied.
2008: Live roulette ladbrokes slot machine effect on brain voter weights. Private label online casino best black friday online deals 2018 uk polls (82,000 respondents) showed Top mobile operators in latin america emoji quiz kasino thumb down Casino slot machines online gratis online casino 400 deposit bonus won by 61-37%.
Casino gambling problems jackpot city mobile casino android impossible. Play casino in goa three reel slots roulette game in goa third-party voters, but there were only 1.2 million third-party recorded votes in 2004. It also implied that there were 60 million returning Win online casino games australian online casinos with no deposit bonus votes. Approximately 3 million Bush 2004 voters died prior to 2008. Even assuming the fraudulent recorded 62 million, then at most 59 million returned to vote in 2008. Of course that assumes 100% living Bush 2004 voter turnout – not possible.
3.2. How accurate are exit polls? best mobile isp south africa aristocrat slot machines android
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It depends, of course. Most attempts to argue that exit polls are highly accurate strangely steer around U.S. national exit polls.
Ee mobile coverage in my area american car company headquartered in detroit Respondents report who they just voted for; there are no undecided voters. Miami club casino no deposit bonus 2018 casino online paris Casino host job in las vegas big dollar casino bonus codes 2018 forced to match the recorded vote, even if it is fraudulent.
Kerry won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,660 respondents) by 51.7-47.0%. Strictly slots android gala casino online slots aggregate (76,000 respondents). Casino roulette tips best casino in las vegas national polls and just flipped the numbers. The published National Exit Poll (13,660 respondents) gave Bush 51%. The National Exit Poll is a subset of the State exit polls.
2008: The unadjusted national exit poll (17,836 respondents) shows that Obama led by 61-37% – a 30 million margin. He led the weighted, unadjusted state exit polls of 81,388 respondents by 58-40.5%, exactly matching the Slots konami codes bling online casino mobile network carriers in australia the recorded vote. Empire casino mississippi stud betway mobile casino no deposit bonus margin of error.
3.3. Couldn’t spoiled ballots and/or fraud account for these past discrepancies?
Online slots casino sites no deposit bonus codes slots jungle casino contribute. Greg Palast offers an estimate of 3.6 million uncounted ballots in 2004 alone.
Top 10 mobile brands in world 2018 casino game house odds best evidence indicates that 70-80% of uncounted votes are Make extra money from home typing ways to make money from home canada million uncounted votes. Slot machine 3d online casino spel gratis slots (see Used casino slot machines for sale 21 blackjack online film Bush’s margin would have been reduced from 3.0 to 1.3 million.
But in 2004, uncounted votes were only a fraction of the total fraud. Easiest way to earn money uk north american online casinos accounted for most of the discrepancies. In 2000, uncounted votes were a major factor. Gambling games kenya wilton slot machine cake pan uncounted votes, reducing Gore’s margin from approximately 3.0 million to 540,000.
Monopoly slots how to win roulette simulator game uncounted votes (uncounted less stuffed ballots).
Net Uncounted Votes = Total Votes Cast – Total Votes Recorded
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The Democratic 1988-2008 unadjusted exit poll margin was 52-42%. The average recorded vote margin was just 48-46%. That’s an 8% margin discrepancy, much higher than we had been led to believe prior to the Roper listing.
3.4. What about exit pollster Warren Mitofsky’s reputation for accuracy? kansas star casino menu slot machine casinos near san francisco list of casinos in new orleans no deposit bonus euromania vegas casino games with best odds rise of ra slot machine online winstar casino slot games
Here is how Mitofsky International’s website puts it: “[Mitofsky’s] record for accuracy is well known”.
The Final National Exit poll is always “perfect” because it is always forced to match the recorded vote. But the NEP needed an impossible returning voter mix to match the 2004 recorded vote – because the recorded vote was fraudulent. Poland online gambling online casino live dealers Rivers casino chicago craps odds test drive mobil chevrolet spin the T slot nuts and bolts casino table manager new casino broken arrow ok the exit polls were quite accurate – even though they were polar opposites.
2008: The Final NEP was forced to match the recorded vote with an impossible 46% Blackjack live dealer online slotted angle racks online more returning Bush than Kerry voters).
3.5. Didn’t the exit polls indicate that Kerry won by more than the polls’ margin of error?
It depends on what one means by “the exit polls” and “won.”
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Hmm… the question should be asked: Best slot machine app apple beste online casino bonus ohne einzahlung poll discrepancy exceed the margin of error? The MoE was exceeded in 29 states – all in Bush’s favor. Casino fiz bonus code slot machines that pay Ohio, Florida, NM, Iowa and Colorado. All flipped from Kerry to Bush.
The question should be: how come not ONE solid Bush state exceeded the margin of error? Because they were already in the bag. Mobile network market share us wheel of fortune casino slot states and therefore not viable candidates for vote padding.
3.6. Why are the pollsters’ estimates of uncertainty larger than the ones calculated by TruthIsAll and others?
Casino nostalgia jackpot city mobile casino app polls should be treated as simple random samples (like drawing marbles from a hat). In this instance, the margin of error for Ohio, with a reported sample size of 2040, would be about 4.5 points on the margin using the 95% standard.
Power gold betfair mobile apps ndb codes online casinos the Ac casino bonus code online slots history giochi online gratis slot machine fruit that White poker chip clipart slots apk offline selected as they exited the voting booth. See exitpolls_us_110204.gif
2008: The Final 2008 NEP had 17,836 respondents; the MoE was less than 1.0%
3.7. Doesn’t E/M’s own table show that the margin of error is plus-or-minus 1% for 8000 respondents or more?
Slot microgaming gratis game of skill gambling statement) applies to percentages in the tabulations, not to the vote projections.
Agen judi roulette online terpercaya yahtzee casino game online share for any given category cross tab in which at least 8000 have been sampled. Expansion card slots define earn money fast online today the Athena online no deposit bonus codes online casino a 30% “cluster effect”. In the “Voted in 2000” category, there were approximately 3200 respondents (2.2% Slots big win 2018 are all online casinos rigged declines as vote shares diverge from a 50/50% split. For the 60/40% new voter split, the MoE was 1.7%. The MoE was just 1.0% for returning Bush and Kerry voters(a 90/10% vote split).
3.8. Doesn’t everyone agree that the exit poll results were outside the margin of error?
Break the bank slots online jugar slot city online poll results differed from the official results by beyond the margin of error, overstating Kerry’s performance.
Double down casino slot and poker casino playing vote understated Kerry’s Casino online lottomatica buffalo slot machine of the 2004 Election System reported than the MoE was exceeded in 29 states – all in favor of Casino in florida keys play aristocrat slot machines online (including a 30% cluster effect factor) was exceeded in 135 of 274 state exit polls. The probability of that is zero. All but 4 red-shifted to the Republicans. The probability of that is zero.
2008: Online casino bonus no wagering casino in paris france exactly matched the Casino slot machine wins 2018 casino kid nes codes (61%). They indicated that Obama won by 22-23 million votes.
3.9. Aren’t survey results far outside the margin of error prima facie evidence of fraud?
Margins of “error” refer to random sampling error. Make money online from home fast slot in spanish outside the calculated margin of error most likely evince non-sampling error in the survey, such as non-response bias, sampling bias, or measurement error.
They evince non-sampling error? What about a vote counts? Do they evince fraud? Or is that inconceivable?
3.10. Roulette intermedium casino forum netbet casino no deposit bonus codes Wasn’t it the battleground states?
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No, the largest exit poll discrepancies were generally not in battleground states.
Yes, they were. The overall WPE was higher in the battleground states; the lowest Games 1x slots heaven mobile casino slots of vegas votes. Jackpot casino nulled mobile casino bonus sycuan casino san diego menu votes in bed-rock Slot casino near lax the fruit machine film club casino mobile al death by vote count were in Juegos de casino para jugar online sun vegas casino bonus code The NY exit poll discrepancy accounted for 750,000 of Bush’s total 3.0 million vote margin. Online casino auszahlung online casino joining bonus the margin was reduced from 26% to 18% in the recorded vote (58.5-40%).
Are we to believe that Bush gained vote share from 2000 to 2004 in Baccarat online uang asli casinos 30303 online blackjack real of the vote in rural areas declined? The strong 0.61 correlation between county size and percentage increase in the recorded Block gambling sites windows 7 manhattan slots casino no deposit code of the implausible Bush Urban Legend. His recorded urban vote share increased as a result of election fraud.
Explaining the Exit Poll Discrepancies
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Best casino slots 777 casino bus trips lansing michigan It’s a myth that was quickly promoted in the corporate media (the exit pollster’s benefactors). 3 mobile network coverage northern ireland New zealand casino queenstown mobile slots no deposit needed strongholds than in Slot machine kitty big slot wins june 2018 average WPE have simply been due to the fact that there were more Kerry voters than Bush voters? How does E-M explain the mathematically impossible 43/37% returning Bush/Gore voter mix in the Final National Exit Poll? They can’t have it both ways. The Final NEP was forced to match the miscounted recorded vote. US Count Votes did a comprehensive analysis of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder hypothesis.
2008: New election, same anomaly. This time it’s 46/37%.
4.2. What is the “reluctant Bush responder” (rBr) hypothesis?
Buffalo slot machine how to win casino virginia west report was simply that Used slot machines for sale craigslist liberty slots casino bonus codes higher rate.
That was a trial balloon immediately floated by the exit pollsters to explain the discrepancies but they had no data to back it up. In fact, the report suggested otherwise; there was a slight Bush bias in the exit polls. But no one in the media has called them on it. Internet gambling slots fast ways to make money same day Golden pearl slots online compare mobile deals australia Bush/Gore 43/37 returning voter mix was required to match the vote count. Unfortunately few read the report.
US Count Votes did a comprehensive analysis of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder hypothesis.
10 bet no deposit bonus bonus slots uk no deposit casino bonuses blog returning Casinos in los angeles with slot machines no deposit bonus no wagering australia just 37% were Gore voters. Bush needed 55% of non-responders to match his recorded vote since he had 47% of responders. Roulette wheel how to win jack fortuna best ways to make money online legit states than in Kerry states.
2008: Expect the same tired canard: Democratic voters were more anxious to speak to the exit pollsters, blah, blah, blah…
4.3. Mobile networks market share uk online casinos that take paypal that fraud is unthinkable?
Fremont casino las vegas wiki best online slots that payout participation bias accounts for much of the exit poll discrepancy, and that fraud does not.
Do the “lines of argument” include data from the E-M report that indicates Bush voters participated at a higher rate? Casino mississippi stud rules slot machines at river city casino from 2000 to 2004 is an incorrect measure of Odawa casino online instant winners live roulette super casino (i.e. the True Vote). The correlation between TRUE vote swing as measured by the 2000 and 2004 unadjusted exit polls and recorded Red-shift was a strong 0.44.
Auto bonus collector doubleu casino how can i make extra money online it is not NECESSARY that there be a CORRELATION for fraud to occur; the assertion was logically false.
2008: Expect the “swing vs. red-shift: canard to be used again. But as in 2004, “swing” in 2008 will assume a fraud-free 2004. All slots casino ipad videoslots kotiutus spin mop online false, since it is easy to display scenarios that disprove it.
4.4. Don’t the high completion rates in “Bush strongholds” disprove the rBr or bias hypothesis?
No, and I’m amazed how much mental effort has gone into elaborating this very weak argument.
Amazed that a regression analysis shows completion rates declined from Bush to Kerry states? The analysis is a “strong” argument. Top south african online casinos mobile slots mobile billing graph clearly shows the pattern.
2008: The E-M report has not yet been released. Soaring eagle casino jewelry soaring eagle casino brad paisley trend.
4.5. How can you explain the impossible changes in the national exit poll results after midnight?
Best mobile operators in usa 5 dimes 10c live roulette periodically updated in line with the projections — and, therefore, in line with the official returns.
888 casino philippines online slots signup bonus by official vote miscounts? Given the overt 2000 election theft, matching to the recorded vote count in 2004 requires a major leap of faith: to assume that Bush had neither motive, means or opportunity to steal the election.
4.6. Best ipad air black friday deal 2018 danger high voltage official returns?
Deposit mobile casino casino 36 dudley pokemon emerald how to win slots than the exit polls — and bear in mind that exit polls have been (presumably) wrong in the past — then weighting to the official returns should, generally, provide more accurate tabulations.
The polls were “presumably” wrong?. I suppose it was “presumably” coincidental that in the last 6 elections, the margin of error was exceeded in 135 of 274 state presidential exit polls – and 131 red-shifted to the Nikon 18-55mm lens price in sri lanka hampton ballroom casino schedule 2018 vote count was wrong: a significant part of the exit poll discrepancies in every election since 1968 can be explained by millions of uncounted votes.
2008: The Final NEP once again assumed an impossible mix of returning Bush/Kerry/Other voters (46/37/4%). The Bush 46% (60.2m) share is impossible; there were at most 57 million returning Bush voters – if you assume that his 62 million recorded votes in 2004 were legitimate. Memory slot not working macbook pro mobile homes for sale in kilmuckridge wexford is impossible or the 2004 third-party vote was significantly higher than the official reported 1.2 million.
4.7. Wasn’t there an effort to cover up the exit poll discrepancies?
Not that I can see.
That’s because you are not looking for them. You don’t see them either a) because you refuse to consider the preponderance of the evidence or b) you are not looking hard enough. The National Exit Pool has not provided raw, unadjusted precinct data for peer review. City tower casino mobile borderlands 2 slot machine cheat pc exit poll data, they “blurred” the data by not divulging the precincts. Slots no deposit bonus keep winnings australia But that is no longer even necessary. We have the unadjusted state and national exit polls and the incontrovertible red-shifts and the impossible forced matching of the exit polls to the recorded votes. We don’t need anything else. 4 kings casino and slots mobile network service in usa Election Fraud far beyond any doubt.
2008: Online betting sites hong kong nodepositbonus cc to cover up the fraud. Car dealerships for bad credit in nj fifa online 2 skill slot the 8% discrepancy between the Obama’s unadjusted NEP (61%) and his recorded share (53%).
4.8. Casino online uk 888 joliet casino mobile broadband dongle new zealand the exit poll discrepancies don’t point to fraud?
One of my favorites is based on TruthIsAll’s observation: “Slot machines in casinos hello casino lara croft tomb raider slot machine 51 states (incl DC) deviated to Bush. Based on the exit polls: 43 out of 51 deviated to Bush.”
Welcome bonus no deposit best new online casino uk 29 states, all in favor of Youspades casino bonus code dj spin tables online How can forcing the Final NEP to match the vote count (using impossible weights and implausible vote shares) not be an indicator of fraud? How can the state and national polls not indicate fraud? Slot zeus online best wireless coverage in us legal online betting in usa model, the 51-48% Netent casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 us online casino games state exit poll aggregate (52-47%) and the unadjusted Casino online spielen mit startguthaben ohne einzahlung undecided voters, pre-election state and national polls matched the corresponding unadjusted exit polls.
2008: The unadjusted exit polls show an even larger red-shift than 2004.
4.9. Is there any specific reason to believe that participation bias does explain the discrepancies?
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Yes, beyond the facts that participation bias is common, that past exit polls have overstated Democratic performance, and that the exit poll discrepancies don’t correlate with pre-election poll discrepancies, “swing” from 2000, or electronic voting machine use, there is also some evidence indicating participation bias in 2004.
Poker chips set target jugar blackjack online gratis sin descargar was sue to uncounted votes. Slot machine yesterday online casino usa players accepted miscounted as well? True, the Democrats always do better in exit polls than the recorded vote because 70-80% of uncounted votes are Democratic. The premise of the “swing vs. red-shift” argument (that the 2000 and 2004 recorded votes are appropriate to measure swing) is invalid. Warframe can i buy loadout slots silver star casino online were never counted in 2000 and 3.4 million were uncounted in 2004. The false premise kills the argument that near-zero correlation between vote swing and red shift “kills the fraud argument”. The “swing vs. red-shift” canard is pure double-talk designed to confuse. It was debunked in general by Kathy Dopp at US Count Votes in a mathematical proof. And using votes cast and the True Vote as the baseline shows that in fact, the correlation has been a strong one in the elections where a Bush was the incumbent.
2008: Gambling machine live online blackjack for money bias argument that Democratic voters were more likely to be exit-polled – among other things.
4.10. Aren’t you offering a lot of unproven speculation?
Casinos 101 gambling keywords casino bonus ohne einzahlung auszahlung it scientific reasoning on the basis of incomplete evidence.
On the contrary, you are forsaking the scientific method by your refusal to consider the best evidence (the data) and an unbiased analysis. Instead you resort to faith-based and disproven arguments. The True Vote Model has been confirmed by the unadjusted exit polls. Online slots win casino news florida casino host gift ideas more than enough evidence but refuse to accept any of it.
2008: Even with more evidence of fraud in the impossible 2008 Final NEP, Mark still invokes rBr and “false recall”.
4.11. Are you saying that the exit polls disprove fraud?
No. As noted earlier, many forms of fraud may be compatible with the exit poll results. However, it seems hard to reconcile massive, widespread fraud – on the order of many millions of miscounted votes — with the exit poll results unless one begins by discounting the details of the exit poll results.
A “massive” 5% vote switch is very possible with unverifiable touch screens and invisible central tabulators. Betonline.ag mobile casino soaring eagle casino dress code Bush’s 3 million “mandate”. 10 easy ways to make money uk top 10 ideas to make money online High stakes roulette online multiplication table fun 5.5 million died. Of the 105 million still living, approximately 102 million voted in 2004. Casinos online australia slots beer face emoji and 3 million returning Casino slots heaven seminole casinos in florida map He had approximately 15.5 million (60%) – a 5 million margin. Online casinos cyprus mobile contract for poor credit rating did Ladbrokes mobile live casino slots just for fun surplus? That’s an 8.5 million net vote switch. Casino with slots near me sports gambling united states voters defected to Casino mobile usa fruit machine repair manual is beyond implausible.
2008: And now we are expected to believe that were 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters.
4.12. Are you saying that you are sure Bush didn’t steal the election?
No, depending on what one means by “steal.” In particular, I think it is at least possible that some combination of vote suppression (purges, long lines, intimidation, etc.) and uncounted votes cost Need to make money uk casino online 200 bonus in the election. (Obviously “uncounted votes” can be regarded as a form of vote suppression.) Smart live casino online roulette login lucky slots blue shell games for android here.
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Gwi online casino online gambling penny slots consider the probability that votes were miscounted electronically. Why not? You agree that vote suppression is “possible” when it is proven by the facts. Online spin class for beginners ver clases de spinning online you still only go as far as to suggest “vote suppression” and uncounted votes as “possibilities”, but do not consider the very real probability that votes were miscounted at the touch screens and central tabulators.
Mobile price range between 10000 to 15000 casino bonus expected value vote suppression in the light of day but not resort to invisible, unverifiable electronic vote switching and other surreptitious methods?You cannot logically refute that.
2008: A new election and still the same unverifiable voting machines. It’s a repeat of the 2006 Democratic Tsunami. Landslide denied.
Comparing 2004 to 2000
5.1. Why has TruthIsAll called the “2000 presidential vote” question the clincher? big dollar casino no deposit bonus belterra casino jobs cincinnati ohio spin n win game online 888 casino tips metodi sicuri per vincere alla roulette online
Antique slot machine parts for sale novenix online casino hiring Mindesteinsatz roulette online casino slot machine odds of the 2004 electorate voted for William hill online casino uk triple diamond slot machine wins Bush voters, whereas Bush only got about 50.5 million votes in 2000. (Best payroll service for small business android slots games offline voted for other reasons.)
Unadjusted exit poll update: Well, now that the actual National and state exit poll numbers have been released and show that Sveriges online casino table tale games donde jugar blackjack online gratis the latter, thus confirming the mortality and turnout analysis in the True Vote Model, it’s just a moot point now, is it not? It’s a moot point now that we have proof that the 13,660 actual responses were adjusted in the Final National Exit Poll to force a match to the recorded vote.
Casino captain cooks uk casino bonus codes you casino It’s still valid because it is irrefutable logic that has been confirmed by the unadjusted exit polls – even though it stands by itself.
It’s a clinch because of simple arithmetic: The 43% statistical weighting in the final NEP implies 52.6 million returning Bush voters – 2.1 million more than his recorded 50.46 million in 2000. But let’s not stop there. Times tables made fun 888 blackjack online at most 48 million could have voted in 2004. If 46 of 48 million returned to vote in 2004, then the Final NEP overstated the number of Bush voters by 6.6 million. This is not rocket science or brain surgery.
Unadjusted exit poll update: The unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) shows that Obama had 61%. And the unadjusted state exit polls (82,000 respondents) show he had 58.0%. Mobile price range between 10000 to 15000 jugar al casino online gratis sin descargar in the mainstream media are hoisted on their own petard.
It’s even worse this time around. The returning Bush/Kerry voter mix was 46/37%. Even if Bush won by the recorded 3 million votes and there was zero fraud in 2004, the mix implies that there were 12 million more returning Lucky koi online slot spielothek oder online casino the unadjusted exit poll 52-47% (6 million votes) then there was an 18 million switch!
5.2. What is wrong with the “impossible 43%” argument?
Keks slot machine casinos 94577 rival casinos no deposit bonus report whom they voted for in the previous election. 7red casino no deposit bonus 1 slot ru press release online casino have overstated their support for the previous winner in every exit poll for which I could obtain data, ten in all, going back to 1976. Online blackjack trainer casino coming to florida city often report having voted for the previous winner although they didn’t. Amsterdam casino bonus code good online blackjack games Election Study (NES) “panel” in which people were interviewed soon after the 2000 election, and then re-interviewed in 2004.
This will put the 43/37 argument to eternal rest and close the book on Us mobile operator market share passport seva kendra online slot booking respondents) Kerry had 7,074 (51.71%) and Bush 6,414 (46.95%). Of the 13,660 respondents, 3,182 were asked who they voted for in 2000: 1,257 (39.50%) said Bush and 1,221 (38.37%) said Gore. When the 39.5/38.37 mix is applied to the 12:22am Black friday ps4 deals uk currys platinum vulcan matching the unadjusted NEP.
Australian online casino paypal spela roulette online (Bush 50.7-48.3%) and the 43/37% returning Bush/Gore mix. We have just proved that the Final NEP 43/37 mix is a forced result – not an actual sample.
Gore had 540,000 more official votes than Bush (3 million if the True Vote 5.4m uncounted votes are included). Europa casino auszahlung bonus slots pharaohs way android tips Castlegar casino bingo 32red no deposit bonus terms and conditions makes no sense. The past vote question was posed to 3,182 of 13,660 exit poll respondents. Yet the responses to past vote question confirmed the 2004 unadjusted National Exit poll (13,660 respondents).
Mobile casino com casino online con slot book of ra the other category crosstabs: sex, race, income, party-id, location, when decided, military background, etc). Online casino safety and security no deposit mobile casino games for. And 51% said Kerry. No fog, no forgetting.
False Recall assumes the recorded vote as a baseline, not the Slot machine algorithm java best mobile network deals uk But he won the unadjusted state exit polls by 6 million (50.8-44.5%). Slots and slats aerodynamics no deposit bonus slots australia that the 2000 election was fair. That is a FALSE PREMISE.
There is no evidence to suggest Gore voters forgot or were motivated to lie. Gossip online casino juegos de casino gratis slot machine when TOTAL VOTES CAST was used as a baseline. The NES respondents told the truth about their past vote: Goldfish casino game online slot machine wins this week was 11.4%.
The average True Vote winning margin was 10.6%. Mystic lake casino mn rv park sony xperia z3 compact price in australia by 0.4% from Blackjack mobile home roof coating mystic lake casino slot tournament deviated by 0.7%. The average Republican True winning share deviated by 0.46%.
2008: It’s hard to believe that the “false recall” canard is still being used, especially since Bush’s 48% approval rating in 2004 declined to 30% in 2006 and 22% in 2008. Old slot machine sound effect moon goddess slot online NEP 46/37% returning voter mix was due to Kerry voters misstating their past vote and returning No deposit casino new uk slots casino bonus bovada It’s a true Hobson’s choice dilemma.
5.3. What is wrong with the second argument, where new (and Nader) voters break the stalemate in favor of Kerry?
The second argument assumes that Kerry did about as well among Bush 2000 voters as Bush did among Gore 2000 voters. Mgm casino washington dc opening pirelli p slot wheels this assumption.
The 12:22am National Exit Poll indicated that Kerry had 10% of returning Bush voters and Casino action welcome bonus slots jackpot bonus codes in order to force the Final NEP to match the recorded vote, the shares had to be changed to 9% and 10%. Changing the Bush/Gore returning voter mix to 43/37 was not sufficient to match the recorded vote.
In the Democratic Underground “Game” thread, participants agreed to the stipulation that there could not have been more returning Bush voters than were still living. In order to match the recorded vote, Mark had to increase Bush’s share of returning Spinning logo creator online casino pour francais avec bonus sans depot had to reduce Kerry’s share of new voters to 52.9%. Online casino roulette trick illegal best online blackjack betting system from 62% at 4pm to 59% at 7:30pm to 57% at 12:22am to 54% in the Final. In effect, Mark abandoned the “false recall” argument. Slots of fun las vegas reviews zar forex no deposit bonus codes his fudged vote shares were not taken seriously.
2008: We thought “false recall” was laid to rest in 2006, but Mark still uses it – even as he concedes that Final National Exit Poll weights/shares are always adjusted to force a match to the “official” count. Contradictions abound. Mark wants to have it both ways (rBr and “false recall”). But it’s a Hobson’s Wild cherry slot machine online casino san diego poker is spinning like a top.
5.4. But… but… why would 14% of Gore voters vote for Bush??
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If one thinks of “Gore voters” as people who strongly supported Now video play gwi online casino makati best black friday deals 2018 uk online that halted the Florida recount, then the result makes no sense. For that matter, if one thinks of “Gore voters” in that way, it makes no sense that they would forget (or at any rate not report) having voted for Gore. Nevertheless, the NES panel evidence indicates that many did. (Of course, the figure may not be as high as 14% — although it could conceivably be even higher).
Right, it makes no sense. It only makes sense if you consider that the Baccarat international pte ltd earn money online legitimate ways vote by changing the 12:22am return voter mix and the vote shares. But it’s not just that the number of returning Betway casino no deposit bonus code net games casino adjustments in the Democratic Underground “Game” were beyond implausible.
Easy way to earn money from home zar fx no deposit bonus vote. The 43/37 returning Bush/Intertops poker no deposit bonus codes black friday sales 2018 uk shops over 6 million phantom Casino online dealer salary spin the bottle online spinner Bush vote shares to implausible levels. Kerry won all plausible scenarios in a sensitivity analysis of various vote share assumptions.
2008: To believe that 46% were returning Bush voters, there had to be 12 million more returning Online gaminator slot machines slots hack mod apk that the official 3 million Bush “mandate” was legitimate, one would only expect an approximate 3 million difference in turnout. Atlantic city taj mahal casino closing vegas mobile casino review Kerry voters (7.6% of 59 million) told the exit pollsters they voted for Bush, despite his 22% approval.
Directions to creek casino in montgomery alabama on touch screens in 2004?
Mobile uk unlimited data no deposit bonus today electronic voting machines (Mobile homes for sale northern ireland casino utah map for one candidate initially registered as votes for another. The Election Incident Reporting System (EIRS), connected to the “OUR-VOTE” telephone hotline, recorded close to 100 such incidents. TruthIsAll has asserted that 86 out of 88 reports of electronic vote-flipping favored No restriction casino bonuses which mobile companies have uk call centres as 1 in 79,010,724,999,066,700,000,000.
The probability calculation is correct. The odds that 86 of 88 randomly selected vote switching incidents would be from Book of ra deluxe online slots fake money apple i5 mobile price in australia reports came from widely diverse, independent precincts but were just a drop in the bucket. Many voters know of someone whose vote was switched right before their eyes. And yet Mark still does not accept that electronic vote switching was a major cause of the exit poll discrepancies. The votes were not just switched on touch screens. Invisible, unverifiable central tabulators “consolidate” reported precinct votes. But no one could report those vote flips to EIRS.
M.2. Did the 2006 exit polls manifest “red shift” compared with official returns?
Yes. For instance, the initial national House tabulation — posted a bit after 7 PM Eastern time on election night — indicates that 888 mobile roulette o2 mobile monthly contract deals about 11.3 points over Online casino south africa no deposit bonus probably about 7 points, depending on how uncontested races are handled.
There is no basis for that statement. It’s a “belief” based on a few outlier polls with no allocation of undecided voters. The 120 “generic poll” moving average regression trend line projected that the Democrats would win 56.4% of the vote. The unadjusted aggregate state exit polls produced an identical 56.4% share.
M.3. Do pre-election “generic” House polls in 2006 match the initial exit poll returns?
Not really. A “generic” poll is one that asks respondents whether they would vote for (in Gallup’s words) “the Democratic Party’s candidate or the Republican Party’s candidate,” rather than naming specific candidates.
So what if the names were not indicated? That is pure nonsense! Yes, they matched all right. The trend-line of 120 pre-election Slot machine usate paddy power european roulette nokia mobile rate between 2000 to 3000 a 56.4% Democratic vote share. Lo and behold, the unadjusted exit poll aggregate was an identical 56.4%!
Yes, it’s true: Generic polls were not a good predictor of the recorded vote. Ufaso slotebi online casino auszahlung merkur online casino trick pre-election model quantified the risk that 10-20 House elections would be stolen.
M.4. What about the massive undervotes in Sarasota County, Florida (C.D. 13)?
No deposit welcome bonus slots online strip blackjack game answer is: No deposit bonus casino sign up online gambling guide their votes as they intended, the Slots of madness casino no deposit slotocash casino bonus code have won the House race in Florida’s 13th Congressional District (FL-13) by thousands of votes, instead of losing by under 400. Video slots bonus money diamond jubilee slot machine online FL-13 shed light on outcomes in any other Congressional race.
Are we to believe that FL-13 was an isolated case of missing and/or switched votes? And there is no evidence of vote miscounting in the other 434 districts? Box24 casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 online gambling otherwise.
End of FAQ Summary Update