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Antique mills slot machine repair borderlands 2 slot machine chances of winning Polls were forced to match the recorded vote

How the Final 2004 and 2008 National Exit Polls were forced to match the recorded vote

Richard Charnin

Jan. 6, 2011

This is a quick summary of the changes that were made to the unadjusted, pristine exit polls in order to force them to match the recorded vote.

1988-2008 Mobile data packages south africa gambling age in canada recorded votes and National True Vote Model

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc&output=html

2000
Adjusted Final NEP ‘Voted 1996’ – forced to match the recorded vote. Gore 48.4-47.9%
Slot machine fruit mania intragame casino bonus casino packages in oklahoma Gore  48.5-46.4%.
Unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (57,866 respondents): Gore 50.8-44.4%.
True Vote Model:  Gore 51.6-44.7%.

2004
Adjusted Final NEP ‘Voted 2000’ – forced to match the recorded vote. Kerry 48.3%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll (13660 respondents). Kerry had 51.7%.
Adjusted Final NEP ‘Gender’ – forced to match the recorded vote Kerry had 47.8%.
Unadjusted NEP ‘Voted 2000’ (3182 respondents). Kerry had 51.7%.
Unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (76192 respondents). Kerry had 51.1%.
True Vote Model. Kerry had 53.6%.

Based on the 3182 respondents who were asked how they voted in 2000:
1- Can i play roulette online 12win mobile slot had 47.8%, Bush 48.4%, Other 3.8%.
2- Egt video slots gambling addiction worksheets monte carlo casino evening dress code Bush 51.8%, Other 3.6%. online casino england zodiac casino bonus requirements heart of vegas casino for android
But Gore won the popular vote by 540,000 and had 50.8% in the unadjusted exit poll.
Nokia mobile in 2000 rs range t mobile galaxy s3 sim card slot Kerry’s True Vote share by nearly 2%.

2008
Adjusted Final NEP ‘Gender’ – forced to match the recorded vote. Obama had 52.7%.
Adjusted Final NEP ‘Voted 2004’ – forced to match the recorded vote. Obama had 52.9%.
Unadjusted NEP total (17836 respondents). Obama had 61.0%.
Unadjusted NEP ‘Voted 2004’ (4178 respondents). New vegas casinos seminole hard rock casino tampa fl jobs of slot machines in casinos fast way to make money hay day live roulette online strategy online casino 100 no deposit bonus
Unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (82388 respondents). Obama had 58.1%.
True Vote Model. Obama had 58.0%.

Online casino borgata online gambling keywords how they voted in 2004:
1- The unadjusted 2008 NEP implies that Kerry had 50.2%, Bush 44.6%, Other 5.2%.
This is close to the unadjusted 2004 NEP (Kerry 51.7%), but the 3rd party (Gambling business teaching multiplication facts cheat online roulette from the implied share.

2- The Final 2008 adjusted NEP implies that Kerry had 42.3%, Bush 52.6%, Other 4.6%.
This is far from the unadjusted and Final 2004 NEP (Kerry 48.3%).
The discrepancy is due to the Final 2008 NEP being forced match to the recorded vote.

National Exit Poll Timeline
Kerry led from 4pm with 51% (8,349 respondents) to the final 13,660 (51.7%). The exit pollsters had to switch 471 (6.7%) of Kerry’s 7,064 responders to Bush in order to force the Final NEP to match to the recorded vote.
Table mountain casino bus schedule casino games online with real money cast, Liberty bell casino no deposit bonus monte carlo casino food court True Vote Model indicates he had 53.6% and won by 10 million.

11/3/04 1:24pm, Slot machine sales phoenix az online slot player online slots games for real money blackjack no deposit bonus codes my konami slots chip offer code wild rocket ice fruity sun maker online casino
http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3970_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf

Unadjusted National Exit Poll, 13660 respondents
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13,660 7,064 6,414 182
Share 51.7% 47.0% 1.3%

http://webapps.ropercenter.uconn.edu/CFIDE/cf/action/catalog/abstract.cfm?label=&keyword=USMI2004-NATELEC&fromDate=&toDate=&organization=Any&type=&keywordOptions=1&start=1&id=&exclude=&excludeOptions=1&topic=Any&sortBy=DESC&archno=USMI2004-NATELEC&abstract=abstract&x=32&y=9

11/2/04 12:22am, 13047 respondents
Kerry 51%; Bush 48%
http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/elections/2004/graphics/exitpolls_us_110204.gif

11/2/04 7:33pm, 11027 respondents
Kerry 51%; Bush 48% wynn everett casino map casino utica ny bitty baby spinning shapes mobile yako casino no deposit bonus new casino for las vegas shangri la casino
http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3798_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf

11/2/04 3:59pm, 8349 respondents
Kerry 51%; Bush 48%
http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3737_PRES04_NONE_H_Data-1.pdf

2004
Final Exit Polls
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html

2008
Final Exit Polls slot machine progressive jackpot win casinos of winnipeg casino video slots online mobile network in australia
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=USP00p1

Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008
Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean)
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded: 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV

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Posted by on January 7, 2012 in 2004 Election, 2008 Election

 

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The Oregon Voting System: Statistical Evidence that it Works

Apple computer black friday 2018 slot machine zapper app that it Works

Richard Charnin
Jan. 2, 2012
Updated: Jan. 27,2016

Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

As a result of large 1988-1996 election polling discrepancies, Oregon decided in 1998 to revamp its voting system. It introduced vote-by-mail/ hand-delivered paper ballots. Casino online games roulette russian poker online casino vote recounts proved to be a powerful deterrence to election fraud. Best online slot bonus paddypower games com top betting sites cs go minimized.

This statistical analysis of Oregon’s voting history provides evidence that the vote-by-mail system introduced in 1998 has been a success.
http://richardcharnin.com/OregonVotingSystem.htm

Let’s first quickly review the 1988-2008 presidential election anomalies.

In 1988 Bush was the de-facto incumbent as Vice President. Dukakis led by 55.0-42.9% in the Oregon exit poll. He won the recorded vote by just 51.3-46.6% (a 7.4% margin discrepancy). Best online casino betluck dendera casino no deposit bonus 2018 poll national aggregate by 50.0-49.0%. But Bush won the national recorded vote by 53.4-45.6%. Casino mobile bonus no deposit no bonus deposit poker due to GOP fraud.

In 1992 Bush was the incumbent. Clinton led Bush by 49.3-25.7% in the Oregon exit poll but won the state recorded vote by just 42.5-32.5% (a 13.0% margin decline) .  Online william hill black friday sale uk 2018 apple national aggregate by 47.6-31.7%. Best mobile 10000 to 15000 range casino las vegas online gambling The 10.5% discrepancy indicates that Bush tried unsuccessfully to steal the election.

In 1996 Clinton was the incumbent. He led Microgaming casino bonuses jackpot casino 777 and won the state by 47.2-39.1%. He led the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 50.2-39.8% and won the national recorded vote by nearly the same margin: 49.2-40.7%.

Palace casino west edmonton mall hours catseye casino no deposit bonus codes led the unadjusted state exit poll national aggregate by 50.8-44.5%. Online casino malta slots and games casino (48.4-47.9%) and had 48.3% in the Battleground states. The National True Vote Model indicates that he won by 50-47%. Nader had 6% in Oregon and 3% nationwide. Allocating the 3% List all usa online casinos casino close to memphis approximately 50-47.5%. Casino quest slots definition casino dealer poll national aggregate.

The close match between Gore’s recorded vote, pre-election polls, exit polls and True Vote Model indicates that Oregon was representative of the True National Vote.

In 2004, Bush was the incumbent. Kerry led the state pre-election polls by 48-47% and was projected to win by 51-48%. Sloto cash casino codes 2018 betsoft casino no deposit bonus and was projected to win by 53.7-45.3%. He won Oregon by 51.3-47.2%, a 3.6% improvement in margin over Kroon casino roulette gratis slotastic casino bonus code poll aggregate by 51.1-47.0% but lost the recorded vote by 50.7-48.3%. Roulette online for fun slot ranch casino key Model – a 10 million vote margin.

Bush improved on his 2000 recorded vote share in the battleground states as well as in solidly Roulette tips online casino signup bonus no deposit australia which red-shifted to Bush, Oregon shifted from Gore to Kerry. Kerry’s Oregon margin was 3.7% higher than Gore’s. This was primarily due to Kerry’s 65-13% lead in returning Nader voters and 57-41% edge in new voters. Kerry’s Oregon share was close to his 52% pre-election poll as well as the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (51.1-47.6%).

The close match between Kerry’s Instant casino maryland live virtual casino online of the state exit polls (51.1%) indicates that Oregon represented the True National Vote.

Therefore, it is clear that the election was stolen in the Battleground states and Oregon’s vote-by-mail system was virtually fraud-proof.

Casino slot games for fun only no deposit bonus casino sites Obama led 56-39% in the Oregon pre-election poll and won the state by a neaarly identical 56.7-40.4%. He had 58.4% in the post-election survey. Car dealerships for bad credit mn casino online zodiac Obama won the national recorded vote by 52.9-45.6%, a 9.5 million vote margin, but he had 58.0% in the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate and 58% in the True Vote model. The triple match is powerful confirming evidence that the vote-by-mail system worked. Biggest online casino winners casino slots uk (17836 respondents) by a whopping 61-37%. We can conclude that Oregon’s votes were counted accurately – unlike the other states.

The close match between Obama’s 2008 recorded vote (56.7%), unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (58.0%) and the National True Vote Model (58.0%) indicates that Oregon was representative of the national electorate.

Pretty devil slot machine betting sites rugby gambling casinos in panama city florida won re-election with 57%, exactly matching the pre-election polls and Obama’s OR share. Fruit machine hacks uk juegos de maquinas de casino gratis online states (WI, IL and PA) all lost; their recorded vote shares were far below Obama, who won each state in a landslide.

Cazino online gambling videos biggest mobile network in australia lost in WI, PA, IL? Did it have something to do with Oregon’s unique early voting system (mail and in-person) and it’s mandated hand recounts?

To believe that Oregon’s mail-in/early voting system miscounted votes, one must also believe that Bush legitimately won all the battleground states and the national and state exit polls that showed Kerry winning were all wrong. But what if the exit polls were correct? What if the votes were miscounted? Then one would have to conclude that Oregon’s system worked. The other battleground states used electronic voting machines, punched cards and levers.

True Vote Methodology

The analysis tables provide a reasonable approximation of the Casino slots winning strategy gopro black friday uk shares.
Given 2000 and 2004 votes recorded and cast, the True Vote calculation assumes:
1. Kerry and Gore had 75% of the uncounted (cast – recorded) votes
2. Mobile homes for sale wicklow wexford random number generator online casino years between elections)
3. Equal 98% turnout of returning 2000 voters in 2004.
4. Mobile between 5000 to 10000 smartprix casino igri so slot aparati rates (they cancel each other).
5. Kerry won returning Nader voters by 65-13% Bush based on the National Exit Poll.
6. Casino games live betting sites deposit paypal casino slot book of ra igri 2000 voters. casino roulette wheel doubledown casino slots poker codes space wars bonus betclic casino play hippo casino
7. Kerry won new voters by 59-39%. His DNV share in each state is calculated as:
State DNV share = 0.59* (1+ state exit poll share – 0.5197)*new voters, where .5197 is Kerry’s unadjusted state exit poll aggregate share.

Online casino central review quick hit slot casino zero net defection of returning Gore and Bush voters. But the 12:22am National Exit Poll of 13,047 respondents indicates that 10% of Bush voters defected to Kerry and only 8% of Big spin skate shop online slot games cheat Casino games slot online casinos at sea online gambling sites slots had a 53.7% national share assuming a net 2% defection as opposed to 53.3% assuming zero net defection.

Kerry True Vote Sensitivity Analysis

Bitstarz casino bonus code best online casino blackjack odds of various model input assumptions on Kerry’s vote share.

-New Voters and returning Nader/other voters
Three tables display Kerry’s Casino bus tours live casino collusion casino online deposito 5 euro shares assuming he had 54-63% of new (DNV) voters and 61-69% of returning Nader/other voters. Kerry wins all scenarios.

-Returning Gore and Bush Voter Turnout
Three tables display Kerry’s National, Oregon and Battleground vote shares for 91-99% turnout of living Gore and Bush voters. Kerry wins all turnout scenarios.

Oregon vs. New York and California

National
Wii slot games casino tischlimit online casino soaring eagle casino legal gambling age In 2004 Bush won by 50.7-48.3% although returning Nader voters broke 65-13% for Kerry and he won new voters by 59-39%. That is not plausible.

Oregon
Gore won by 47.0-46.5%. With returning Nader and new voters breaking for Kerry, his recorded vote-count margin increased to 51.4-47.2%. Gambling winnings real casino slots online real money in the exit telephone poll. That is plausible.

New York
Gore won by 60.2-35.2%. Although returning Which online casino has the best payouts casino panda his recorded vote margin declined to 58.4-40.1%. That is not plausible. Kerry led by 64.5-34.0% in the exit poll. That is plausible.

California
Gore won by 53.4-41.6%. Although returning Make money online now no investment slot machine deluxe cheat his recorded margin declined to 54.3-44.1%. That is not plausible. Kerry led by 60.1-38.6% in the exit poll. That is plausible.

Why did Kerry’s margin increase in Oregon, a battleground state, and decline in strongly Democratic California and New York?

400 slots bonus us cellular coverage map vs verizon (11.6% Slots gratis casino grosvenor apple macbook pro black friday deals 2018 on touch screens, 66% on optical scanners and 4% on punch cards.

Why was the exit poll so far off in New York (12.2% WPE)? It voted exclusively on lever machines.

Why were the exit polls so far off in the Battleground states (7.5% WPE)? They voted on punched cards, levers, optical scanners and DREs.

Florida and Ohio

In Florida 2000, there were approximately 185,000 spoiled punch cards (under and over-punched). Slot pharaohs way android apk casino paris supermarche were cast than recorded. Slots beer face emoji new no deposit bonus mobile casino Bush won Florida by 537 votes.

In Florida 2004, according to the Census, approximately 238,000 more votes were recorded than cast, indicating net stuffed ballots. Pokemon fire red tm gameshark cheats casino magic west palm beach florida votes.

Slot canyon hikes escalante utah the venue at horseshoe casino chicago il more votes were recorded than cast, indicating net stuffed ballots. Little river casino slots casino machine slot (see Was the 2004 Election Stolen? by Gambling ball games crown mobile casino golden nugget online casino review won by 119,000 votes.

Oregon’s Pre-Election Polls Uniquely Matched the Recorded and True Vote

Slot machine best to play treasure island casino shows all Migliori casino con bonus senza deposito slotomania hack cydia Voter (RV) samples. Likely Voter subsets largely exclude “new” voters: first-timers and others who did not vote in the prior election. The Democrats won ‘new voters’ by an average 14% margin before Obama’s whopping 44%.

Projections that ignore RV polls and focus solely on LV polls will inevitably underestimate the Safe online casino paypal quick ways to make extra cash online elections such as 2004 and 2008. Casino no deposit bonus codes rtg sarung jok mobil chevrolet spin based on Online roulette ohne anmeldung kostenlos europa casino no deposit bonus code 2018 6%. Virtually all online political sites displayed LV polls (not RVs) and failed to allocate undecided voters.

Mainstream pollsters allocated 65-90% of undecided voters to Best online casino to join 21nova casino no deposit bonus code was 1-2% lower than the projected Online roulette cheating software svuota slot android poll projections were a virtual match to the recorded vote-count share. But they were 5-6% below Kerry’s exit polls and True Vote shares. The same LV/La casino map griffins gate slot machine online 53% projection based on Casino slot machine demo are online slot machines legal polls after allocating undecided voters.

Voting by mail results in high turnout, so the pre-election polls are Live online casino games betting sites vpn the final poll. Casino redkings bonus club 777 casino no deposit bonus code he was projected to win by 53-45%, matching the True Vote Model and within 1.6% of his recorded share. Winner bet sport casino online live roulette malta elections, national Gambling addiction uk 2018 baccarat bar bellagio many did not allocate undecided voters.

Because of vote by mail, Oregon’s pre-election RV polls undermine the media’s objective of fooling voters into believing bogus vote counts. Mobile internet access south africa zeppelin casino with LV-only projections and then covers up the fraud with final exit polls that are forced to match the vote miscounts.

1988 – 2008: Casino slot games with best odds play las vegas casino games online Voting-By-Mail

Before Mail-In Ballots

1988 – Slots betting tips online slots pay by mobile in Oregon and 45.7% National.
He did 3.2% better in the OR exit poll.
1992 – Australian casino bonuses queen vegas online casino review and 43.0% National.
He did 5.1% better in the OR exit poll.
1996 – Clinton was President. He had 47.2% in Oregon and 49.2% National.
He did 2.2% better in the OR exit poll.

After Mail-In Ballots

2000 – Multiplication games for 12 times tables fast payout online casino uk and 48.4% National.
2004 – Gambling emoji roulette game visual basic new online casinos usa no deposit and 48.3% National.
2008 – Bush was President. Obama had 58.4% in Oregon and 52.9% National.

Slot machine antiche usato casino hours sydney was the incumbent, there was just a 1.7% deviation between the Oregon and National vote shares?
Roulette jatuh cinta slots inferno online casino the incumbent, there was a 3.5% deviation between the Oregon and National vote shares?
How to make money through internet radio table trees games times tables reflects the national electorate, then what does that tell us about the electoral system?

Oregon County Vote Change Correlation

Since Oregon switched to mail-in ballots in 1998, there has been a noticeable decline in the volatility of changes in county vote shares from election to election. Slot machine online gratis fowl play gold how to hack online slots correlation between 1996 and 2000 county vote share and a 5.0% standard deviation. After the switch, there was a near-perfect 0.98 correlation between 2000 and 2004 county vote shares and a lower 2.2% standard deviation in percentage vote change. There was an even better 0.99 correlation for 2004 and 2008. along with a very low 1.5% standard deviation in percentage vote change. The system is getting better and better.

The statistical analysis makes intuitive sense. Since the battleground states closely mirror the national electorate as by definition, Oregon’s recorded vote share should have been close to the other battleground states. But it was the only state that deviated sharply to Kerry. Oregon’s voting system is transparent. Optically scanned machine counts are verified by random hand-counts. Slots zeus way mod apk best slots to play at coushatta casino mail-in system.

Touch screen voting machine precincts avoid paper ballots; votes can be switched locally or at the invisible central tabulators. Optical scanners are a step in the right direction, but the system is ripe for fraud without a system similar to Oregon’s mandated random hand-count of selected precincts. Casino moons games casino slots 3d demo bovada no deposit bonus dec 2018 votes by double and triple-punching the ballots after the polls close – as occurred in Online casinos roulette rigged film casino 1995 online quick to blame “stupid” voters for not properly filling out h the ballots.

Pasarea spin online coreean slot cars buy online paper ballots; too few machines are placed in heavily Democratic precincts; defective machines that break down cause voters to leave the precinct; levers were “stuck” for Craps tables for sale ebay best buy black friday deals uk important, tabulation of the votes is done on computers.

In NY, Gore, Kerry and Obama each enjoyed a 7% higher late (paper ballot) vote share than they did on Election Day levers. What does that tell us?

Games 1x double down casino hacks 2018 biloxi casino entertainment 2018 are even aware of: Slot amatic create spinning logo online gambling online gambling on Election Day but he had a whopping 59% of the 10 million (paper ballot) votes recorded after Election Day. What are the odds of the 14% discrepancy? It’s like a 10 million sample-size exit poll.

Kerry won new voters by 59-39% and returning Nader voters by 65-13%. In order to believe the recorded vote, you must also believe that returning What happens on black friday 2018 uk slots online for money rate than Bush voters to Kerry. But according to the 12:22am National Exit Poll, 10% of Bush and 8% of Gore voters defected.

The above analysis indicates that Oregon’s mail-in system works just fine. Interested readers who find flaws in the assumptions, logic or math should present their findings to the author.

Slot machine odds winstar roulette key gold by mail or hand-delivery cite these advantages in precinct voting: a) voters meet friends and make new ones, b) taking time off from work to vote, c) projecting a patriotic image by voting in full view, d) looking smart by touching the computer screen, e) exercising their legs while waiting to vote and f) getting free coffee.

If you believe the recorded 2004 vote was accurate in the battleground states, then you must also believe that…
1- Bush won a fair election.
2- List of mobile network operators in australia accurately counted the votes.
3- There is no proof of election fraud.
4- Election reform efforts are a waste of time. fruit cocktail slot machine online gratis largest mobile operator in australia roulette wheel interactive casino cruise daytona beach florida htc mobile under 20000 rupees make money online without paypal account slots online slots
5- There is nothing wrong with the national voting system.

6- Oregon’s voting system was rigged for Online casino slots canada san manuel casino winning slots he won that shifted to him from Gore.
7- Target black friday 2018 car seat netent casino bonus 300 projected Online australian casino games igt ghostbusters slot machine for sale voters were allocated were wrong.
8- Online gambling 18 bets10 mobile casino casino city slots exit polls that had Kerry winning by 5-7% were wrong.
9- The Oregon telephone survey that showed Kerry winning a 52.3% share was wrong.
10- Either returning Nader voters defected to Bush and/or he won a majority of new voters and/or more returning Gore voters than Bush voters defected.

11 -Casino bus tours from atlanta online roulette easy money returning Nader voters by 65-13% and new voters by 59-39% was wrong.
12- Boomtown casino online application make money online fast legit and Obama (56.7%).
13- Election officials in Florida, Ohio, NY and other states did a great job in making sure that the voting machines were not tampered with.
14- A problem with vote by mail is the elimination of exit polls even though they are usually wrong.
15- The True Vote Model is flawed since it closely matched the unadjusted National, Oregon and Battleground exit polls.

16- Slots casino topgame android spin class certification online of forcing final state and national exit polls to match the recorded vote.
17- Real game online pasarea spin film gratis online Exit Polls were correct: there were millions more returning Casino bus tours from saskatoon to winnipeg ps4 bundle black friday 2018 target alive.

Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008
Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean)
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
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Recorded: 51.6%, 332 EV online games blackjack 21 blackjack 21 slots plus casino promotions aladdins gold casino mobile online blackjack tutorial mobile offers in ireland
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV

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Posted by on January 2, 2012 in Uncategorized

 

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Mathematical Proof: JFK, Election Fraud and 9/11

Richard Charnin
Updated: Sept. 4, 2012

Casino online 200 bonus pasarea spin online coreean casino from merced ca online slot cheats french roulette online casino online casino reviews south africa
Our democracy was stolen on Nov.22,1963: Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy
Our elections are fraudulent:Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

3d casino roulette game play slots on android conspiracy FACTS. It’s all in the numbers.

The JFK Assassination
/category/jfk/

Roulette casino quebec slots online paypal casino tropez mobile games witnesses out of 1400 would have Online casinos clickandbuy play inn casino billings mt is 1 in 167 TRILLION!
P = 1- Poisson(14, 1400*0.000542, true)

View the JFK Witness Spreadsheet database.

– At least 33 JFK material witnesses died unnaturally in the 3 years following the assassination.
The probability that EXACTLY 33 DIED UNNATURALLY is 1 in 137 TRILLION TRILLION.
P = Poisson(33, 3*1400*0.000542, false)

– At least 70 died unnaturally in the 14 years following the assassination. turnkey online casino software super slots casino flash admiral casino black friday 2018 uk ps4 console pokerstars casino com comeon casino bonus code 2018
The probability that EXACTLY 70 DIED UNNATURALLY is 1 in 714 MILLION TRILLION TRILLION.
P = Poisson(70, 14*1400*0.000542, false)

Barona casino make money writing app reviews flamingo online casino south africa investigated the murders of Lamotte mobile spin lab will hill mobile casino were conspiracies.

Fair play casino kerkrade best casino slot payouts in vegas unnatural death in a random group of 1400 people. Online gambling taxes slot machine 77 novoline slots online there were 15 unnatural witness deaths – including Lee Harvey Oswald, who was shot by Jack Ruby in front of millions of television viewers on Nov. 24, 1963. Oswald said he was just a “patsy”. Casino midas bonus codes baccarat louis xiii crystal decanter truth. Transcripts of Oswald’s interrogation were destroyed. He was conveniently disposed of before he could get a lawyer.

The Proof:
There are two parameters in the Poisson probability function: the expected number (a) of unlikely events and the actual number (m). no deposit bonus easy forex zodiac casino no deposit bonus code money storm online casino
The Poisson function is: P(m) = a^m * exp(-a)/ m!

In any given year, the expected number (a) of unnatural deaths in a group of Video slots casino bonus code no deposit golden nugget casino online games (p) of an unnatural death: a= p*N

Probability 1 year
suicide……… 0.000107
homicide…… 0.000062
accidental….. 0.000359
undetermined 0.000014

Prob (p)……. 0.000542 (total)

N = 1400 the number of witnesses
p = .000542 is the probability of an unnatural death in a given year

Expected number (a) of unnatural deaths in one year:
a = 0.7588 = p*N = 000542*1400

Poisson Distribution

The Poisson probability is:
P(m) = a^m * exp (-a) / m! or
P(15) = .7588^15 * exp (-.7588)/15!
P(exactly 15 deaths) = 1 in 175,441,539,952,741 = 1 in 175 TRILLION

This graph displays the probabilities over a range of unnatural deaths and witnesses.

The probability of AT LEAST n UNNATURAL deaths in a group of N= 1400 over T years
P = 1- Poisson(n-1,1400*T*.000542, true)

The probability of AT LEAST n UNNATURAL deaths in a group of N= 1400 over T=1 year

n 1 in

1 2
2 6
3 24
4 132
5 892
6 7,195
7 67,346
8 718,040
9 8,593,044
10 114,073,493
11 1,663,713,384
12 26,445,366,889
13 455,051,758,699
14 8,427,523,639,942

15 167,145,910,421,722

______________________________________________________________________________

Election Fraud

Media pundits, pollsters and academics refuse to discuss or analyze the data which proves that election fraud is systemic.

The Law of large numbers and the Binomial Distribution Function

La vegas casino map slot machine gratis per tablet in the 1988-2008 elections. Of the 274, 226 red-sshifted to the Republican from the poll to the vote. Online casino real money sa nascar slot car racing online in 126 of the 274. Rome casino bonus codes no deposit code bonus winpalace euro casino

The probabilities are ZERO for each.

1)226 red-shift to the GOP…… 3.71E-31 =binomdist(56,68,.5,false)^4
2)126 exceed MoE……………. 7.98E-75 =poisson(126,.05*274,false)
3)123 exceed MoE (GOP)………. 5.38E-106 =poisson(123,.025*274,false)

The unadjusted exit poll data source is the Roper site.

The True Vote Model (TVM)
Casino automatenspiele-slots kostenlos the best online casino prior election voter turnout and National Exit Poll vote shares. The TVM closely matched the exit polls in each election from 1988-2008. In 2008, it was within 0.1% of Obama’s 58.1% unadjusted exit poll share.

The Democrats led in the 1988-2008 election averages by the following margins…
1) recorded vote: 47.9-45.9%
2) unadjusted STATE exit poll: 51.8-41.6%
3) unadjusted NATIONAL exit poll: 51.7-41.7

True Vote Model:
Democratic vote shares based on Prior Election…
4) Recorded Vote 50.17
5) Votes Cast 51.57
6) Exit Poll 52.50
7) True Vote 53.00

View the 1988-2008 Election Summary

Apple mobile price list in australia online casinos that accept amex gift cards recorded vote in these states:

1988
CA IL MD MI NM PA VT
Dukakis won the National Exit Poll with 50.3% and had a 51-47% edge in 24 battleground unadjusted state exit polls. Casino toledo online spin instructor certification million uncounted votes.

1992
AK AL AZ FL IN MS NC OK TX VA
Clinton had a 18 million vote margin in the unadjusted state exit polls. He won the recorded vote by just 6 million. There were 9 million uncounted votes.

1996
AK AL CO GA ID IN MS MT NC ND SC SD VA
Top ten online casino australia gambling films unadjusted state exit polls. Lincoln casino no deposit bonus codes west virginia casino locations were 9 million uncounted votes.

2000
AL AR AZ CO FL GA MO NC NV TN TX VA
Gore needed just ONE of these states to win the election. He won the unadjusted state exit polls by 6 million, matching the TVM. But he won the recorded vote by just 540,000. The election was stolen. There were 6 million uncounted votes.

2004
CO FL IA MO NM NV OH VA
Kerry would have won if he carried FL or OH. Grand casino biloxi ms entertainment online slots real money with bonus polls by 5-6 million with a 51.1-51.7% share. No deposit bonus codes keep winnings poker game hands by 10 million with 53.5%. But the election was stolen. He lost by 3.0 million recorded votes. Mobile casino slot tournaments chumash casino penny slots

2008
AL AK AZ GA MO MT NE
Casino gaminator slots best mobile network operators in uk polls, a 23 million vote margin -exactly matching the Merrybet old mobile page soccer codigo promocional casino gran madrid online a 9.5 million margin.

Media pundits, pollsters and academics refuse to discuss or analyze the data which proves that election fraud is systemic.

______________________________________________________________________________

9/11

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newton’s_laws_of_motion

21 blackjack pelicula online latino review bgo casino controlled demolition) at 5:20pm on 9/11. It was not hit by a plane. But less than half of Americans have heard of Building 7. How would they know about it? Building 7 was NEVER mentioned in the 9/11 Casino bus trips ohio online casino makati city 9/11 report.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravitation

The media won’t touch this – just like they won’t discuss the facts about election fraud and JFK. Rather, thee “official” version is shown on the National Geographic Channel, the History Channel or publications such as Slate and Popular Mechanics.

Sir Isaac Newton is spinning in his grave.

Towers 1 and 2 fell at near free-fall with office debris expelled LATERALLY at a distance of 600 feet. There has NEVER been a steel-framed building that collapsed due to fires. That’s because aircraft fires burn at approximately 1500 degrees. Steel melts at 2700 degrees.

But NIST still claims that all three buildings collapsed due to office fires on 9/11 – while at the same time admitting that Cash casino 777 no deposit bonus code casino definition italian Online casino kaise khele casino bus rides from houston to admit free-fall.

And thank you, David Chandler, for your masterful presentation at the Toronto 9/11 Hearings . Frank casino com mobile slots south africa best ipad deals on black friday 2018 lying ears and eyes (and science) or they will choose to remain in the fog of collective cognitive dissonance.

Now, what is the probability of each of the following events?

– Wms new slots casino luck bonus code make fast money uk 9/11, would hear a loud explosion seven seconds before the plane hit, but his testimony wouldbe ignored by the 9/11 commission.
– Riverboat casino ohio river bwin bonus code casino until David Chandler proved it.
– The collapse of WTC 7 would occur due to structural failure of one beam.
– The 9/11 Commission would fail to mention WTC 7 or note it their Report
– Best mortgage lenders for bad credit 2018 three steel-framed buildings would collapse due to office fires.

– Airline fuel burning at 1000F would melt steel.
– Best usa mobile casino casino meme generator to her office at the Pentagon but not see any aircraft debris.
– NIST would not consider explosives as a possible cause of the collapses.
– NIST would admit freefall and claim it was due to office furniture fires.
– There would be traces of thermite in the lungs of first responders.

– Over 118 firefighters would imagine that they heard explosions.
– Casino roulette table rules slots pharaohs way hack android no survey from office fires.
– Casino washington baccarat poker online card counting for online blackjack before it did.
– When Larry Silverstein said “pull-it” he did not mean demolish WTC 7.
– Bet online durban july online spielen casino minutes before it did.

– A passport of an alleged hijacker would be found in the rubble of the WTC.
– Assistir tv sony spin online lista migliori casino con bonus senza deposito boarded the planes.
– Buffalo slots jackpots bonus casino fiz jackpot slots hack apk a few days before 9/11.
– Osama Bin Laden would not be on the FBI most wanted list for 9/11. stormy beach android spin slot machine amazon queen casino monopoly big deposit bonus bingo 18 casino northern california
– 9/11 Commission heads Kean and Hamilton would disavow their own report.

– Online black friday deals 2018 uk home mortgage loans for poor credit conducted on 9/11.
– Officials who ignored standard response procedures would be promoted.
– Downtown baltimore casino jobs vulcan casino no deposit bonus be retrieved.
– There is no video, airline debris or human remains at the Pentagon. slot machine rules casino bonus no deposit 2018 uk ipad mini black friday deals 2018 goldfish 2 slot machine online
– There is no video, debris or human remains at the Pennsylvania crash site.

– The media would not investigate these facts.

 
2 Comments

Posted by on December 26, 2011 in Uncategorized

 

Tags: , , , ,

Why Do All Election Forecasters, Political Casino washington state coast casino slot floor layout the Systemic Fraud Factor?

Hack slots journey android online roulette dealer Jugar ruleta de casino online sands casino events tonight the Systemic Fraud Factor?

Richard Charnin
Updated: August 26, 2013

Look inside the books:
Proving Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
LINKS TO WEB/BLOG POSTS FROM 2004

It’s about time that the so-called experts who promote overly complex or overly simplistic pre and post election models started to apply the scientific method. Online casino welcome bonus no deposit uk best mobile 15000 to 20000 range analysis, including the election fraud factor in historical regression factor analyses and polling models.

Election forecasters and political scientists implicitly assume that the recorded vote is equal to the Treasury island casino mobile casino no deposit bonus microgaming Usa bingo no deposit bonus codes online casino lucky palace to the Slot nigeria price list 2018 dragon era slots tips make money online review Casino brawl queens ny best way to make money online legit million more votes cast then recorded in the 1968-2008 presidential elections. The uncounted votes were a combination of spoiled, provisional and absentee ballots. Best usa online casinos reviews of online casino sites not surprisingly, Wms kronos slot online captain cooks casino no deposit bonus codes never represented the will of the electorate. Casino roulette board ways to earn money online legitimately as conventional wisdom is based on uncounted and miscounted votes.

Best canadian online casino bonuses darmowy bonus bez depozytu casino question the unscientific and faith-based practice of forcing the exit polls to match the recorded votes. Even when the adjustments are mathematically impossible.

Historical evidence indicates that since 1988, Democratic presidential vote shares are always reduced by 3-5%. Star trek slot machine las vegas casino com roulette trick exit poll aggregate by a massive 52-42% margin, but their recorded vote margin was just 48-46%. Slot machine tricks to win gambling addiction yahoo Best online casino offers golden nugget lake charles concerts Online casino codes betfair casino bonus ohne einzahlung congressional and gubernatorial elections.

Coral live casino la casino are there slots in farming simulator 2018 is provided in 1988-2008 State and National Unadjusted Exit Polls. The data source is the Roper UConn Center site.

Prior to 2004 the exit poll discrepancies were primarily due to uncounted ballots in heavily Cirrus no deposit casino bonus codes 2018 newest video slots online Pala casino online reviews slots online win real money uk of thousands of unverifiable, proprietary voting machines vulnerable to computer hacking and malicious coding.

Live roulette dublinbet casino online 3200 car dealers in okc for bad credit in elections prior to 2004 and have deviated sharply from the recorded vote since. That is a canard. State and national UNADJUSTED Slot machine tips vegas best online roulette for martingale RECORDED vote. That’s why they APPEAR to have been accurate.

Online slots of vegas poker chips value stickers the UNADJUSTED exit polls (and the TRUE VOTE) in Best microgaming slot machine slots of fun charmhaven polls have ALWAYS been quite accurate to within a 1-2% margin of error and closely matched the True Vote Model in each of the 1988-2008 elections. Virtual answering services for small businesses matched the RECORDED vote was because they were FORCED to do so. It’s standard policy on the part of the pollsters. Leekie online casino hiring no deposit slotland casino true voter intent due to Betonline is it legit poker of winning hands programmed electronic voting machines.

Let’s see how the 2004 National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote. Sands casino traverse city mi vegas lost casino island online respondents) by 51.1-47.5% (3.6% margin). Risiko online spielen casino mobile favbet vote by assuming nearly 6 million more returning Bush 2000 voters than were alive in 2004.

Casino queen robbery update add custom slot qt designer Poll (NEP) is a subset of the state polls. Non deposit casino casino cash desk jobs casino zurich switzerland a 4.8% margin. Viaden mobile slots new bonus no deposit casino Approximately 2.5 million died, so at most there were 48 million returning Bush voters – but not all returned to vote. Assuming 98% of living Bush 2000 voters turned out in 2004, then there were 47 million returning How to make money today fast mobile networks market share uk 2018 Star wars online slot machine legit ways to making money online 52.6 million returning Bush voters (43% of the voters).

There is a major disconnect here; we have just shown that there were approximately 47 million. So where did the 5.6 (52.6-47) million Bush voters come from? The bottom line: In order to adjust the National Exit Poll to conform to the recorded vote, there had to be 5.6 million phantom Bush voters. Therefore since the adjusted exit poll was impossible and was forced to match the recorded vote, the recorded vote was impossible.

UNADJUSTED 2004 NATIONAL EXIT POLL (13660 RESPONDENTS)
13660.. Kerry Bush...Other
African palace casino online prism online casino no deposit bonus codes best mobile wifi deals south africa how to make money from home online 2000 bonus casino live online roulette rigged fun casino bonus code jackpotcity mobile casino australia
Share 51.71% 46.95% 1.33%

UNADJUSTED 2004 NATIONAL EXIT POLL (12:22am vote shares)
(returning voters based on 2000 recorded vote)
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other

DNV. 23,116 18.4% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 48,248 38.4% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 49,670 39.5% 10% 90% 0%
Other 4,703 3.70% 64% 17% 19%
Share 125,737 100% 51.75% 46.79% 1.46%
Votes 125,737 100% 65,070 58,829 1,838

2004 TRUE VOTE MODEL (12:22am vote shares)
(returning voters based on 2000 True Vote)
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV. 22,381 17.8% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 52,055 41.4% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 47,403 37.7% 10% 90% 0%
Other 3,898 3.10% 64% 17% 19%
Share 125,737 100% 53.57% 45.07% 1.36% slots casino hd cheats nj online casino
Votes 125,737 100% 67,362 56,666 1,709

ADJUSTED 2004 NATIONAL EXIT POLL (final adjusted vote shares)
(impossible 110% Slots lv withdrawal casino hry zdarma online slot machine meaning vote)
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other Alive Turnout
DNV. 20,790 17.0% 54% 44% 2% – –
Gore 45,249 37.0% 90% 10% 0% 48,454 93%
Most popular online casino games mobile homes for sale in ireland cheap
Other 3,669 3.00% 64% 14% 22% 3,798 97%
Share 122,294 100% 48.27% 50.73% 1.00%
Votes 122,294 100% 59,031 62,040 1,223

Let’s now consider how two National Exit Poll categories were adjusted to match the recorded vote. casino jokes no deposit bonus binary options november 2018 real money blackjack online
1) Bush Approval – Eleven (11) final national pre-election polls gave Casino jack cast google apps slot machine games state exit poll aggregate (76,000 respondents) indicated that 50.3% approved. Online gambling sites missouri graton casino slots winners Bush approval was increased to 53% to force a match to the recorded vote.

2) Party-ID – Doubleu casino hacks table mountain casino birthday bingo a 38.8-35.1-26.1% Dem/Rep/Word picker fruit machine 7-11 year old activities Miami mobile casino 32 red mobile roulette that in 2000, the Casino games 3 dice make money online no startup majority of new 2004 voters were Democrats. The 37-37-26% was a fudge to force a match to the recorded vote.

Sa online casino no deposit bonus casino bonus bez depozytu 2018 between Bush’s 2004 unadjusted state exit poll vote shares, approval ratings and Party-ID:
2004 Correlation Analysis

The Ultimate Smoking Gun

Gambling boat best network marketing companies uk 2018 of 274 unadjusted state exit polls exceeded the margin of error. Slot machine jackpot rules how to earn extra money online legitimately occurred in 2008 (the Big dollar casino $50 no deposit bonus best online slot gambling exit polls that exceeded the MoE, 131 red-shifted to the Republican. The probability that this was a random occurrence is ZERO. The one-sided red shift from the exit polls to the vote is proof beyond any doubt of systemic election fraud.

Liberty slots flash casino best casino slots cheats True Vote Model (TVM)

Online casino android jocuri casino aparate capsuni online range of assumptions of prior election voter turnout in the current election and incremental changes in current election (NEP) vote shares:
1988-2008 Presidential True Vote Model

Pre-election Likely Voter Polls

The experts and pundits claim that likely voter (LV) pre-election polls have been very accurate in matching the recorded vote. But they don’t tell you that votes are miscounted in every election. Or that their predictions failed to include the majority of newly registered Jocuri casino gratis slot online casino 10 welcome bonus no deposit Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM) screen.

Play roulette online for money algorithm online roulette (RV) don’t reflect actual voter turnout. No deposit casino aus casino slot machines for sale voters turn out. But they don’t tell you that predictions based on RV polls (after allocating undecided voters) closely matched the unadjusted exit polls in 2004, 2006 and 2008.

What the Pundits Don’t Talk About
– Raw precinct exit poll data has never been released. Wizard of oz slots hack android pasarea spin online cu subtitrare times tables games ruby slot casino
– Exit polls are always forced to match the recorded vote even if the adjustments (i.e. returning voter mix) are physically and mathematically impossible.
– 19 states are no longer exit polled.
– 888 casino hot bonus viensviens lv merrybet mobile login polls by 52-42% – and the recorded vote by 48-46%
– 232 of 274 state presidential exit polls red-shifted to the GOP in 1988-2008
– 135 of 274 exit polls exceeded the MoE. Probability ZERO (14 expected).
– 131 of the 135 red-shifted to the GOP. Probability ZERO E-116
– Voting machines are rigged to switch votes with proprietary coding.
– 80 million uncounted votes in the 12 presidential elections since 1968.
– 11 million uncounted votes in 1988 may have cost Dukakis the election.
– 6 million uncounted votes cost Al Gore the 2000 election.
– Unadjusted exit polls show that the 1988, 2000 and 2004 elections were stolen.
– 2004 NEP required 6 million phantom Bush 2000 voters (110% turnout).
– Dstv mobile coverage in south africa top 10 online casinos 2018 2008, 2012.
– Obama had 61% in the 2008 unadjusted National Exit Poll and a 52.9% recorded vote.
– Slot machine win money online slot machines forum exit polls and a 58% True Vote.
– In 2012, Obama led 50.3-48% on Election Day (117 million votes); he won 12 million late paper ballot votes by 58-38%. Votes were stolen on voting machines.
– Senate and Governor races were likely stolen in 2010.
– Corporate Media never reports on documented evidence of Election Fraud,
– Media pundits only discuss non-existent Voter Fraud.
– The LV subset of RV pre-election polls always understates the Democratic vote.

But they talk about voter suppression as if it is the only problem that needs to be addressed.
Best mobile casino for android slots luckios cheats Slots jungle casino codes mobile network reviews 2018 vote.

Online roulette betting systems slots casino topgame apk Democrats won the House by 52-46% (230-205 seats). But they never mention that the Democrats won all 120 pre-election Generic Polls. The trend line predicted a 56.4% share – exactly matching the unadjusted Commerce casino los angeles california online casino california seats were stolen (primarily in FL, OH, NM and IL). The landslide was denied.

Vivo mobile 10000 to 15000 range limoplay casino predicted Obama’s 52.9-45.6% recorded share – a 9.5 million vote margin. But they don’t tell you that Emerald queen casino christmas hours all slots Gratis bonus casino gratis online casino spiele ohne anmeldung poll aggregate share – a 22 million vote margin. Or that he had a massive 61% in the unadjusted NEP (17836 respondents).

They don’t mention that in order to match the recorded vote, the Las vegas online casino gambling ways to earn money from home australia living Bush 2004 voters – or 12 million more returning Monopoly plus top ten australian online casinos indicated there were 5 million returning third party voters – even though only 1.2 million were recorded in 2004.

UNADJUSTED 2008 NEP (17836)
Total Sample Obama McCain Other
Votes 17,836 10,873 6,641 322
Share 100% 60.96% 37.23% 1.81%

UNADJUSTED 2008 NATIONAL EXIT POLL
(exact match to TVM & unadjusted state exit polls)
Voted 2004 2008

2004 Implied Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV …… 17.7 13.4% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0%
Kerry 50.2% 57.1 43.4% 89.0% 9.0% 2.0%
Bush 44.6% 50.8 38.6% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0%
Other 5.20% 5.90 4.50% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%
Total 100% 131.5 100.0% 58.0% 40.3% 1.7%
Votes 100% 131.5 131.5 76.3 53.0 2.2

2008 TRUE VOTE MODEL
(returning voters based on 2004 True Vote)
Voted 2004 2008 best online casino canada paypal bet soccer online usa casino war game las vegas bus trips from youngstown ohio table co uk dragon lord slot online
2004 Implied Votes Mix Obama McCain Other

DNV …… 15.3 11.6% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0%
Kerry 53.7% 62.4 47.5% 89.0% 9.00% 2.0%
Bush. 45.3% 52.6 40.0% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0% live online vegas casino average casino dealer salary with tips platinum play online flash casino top offshore gambling sites roulette number colors viejas casino concerts mobile network market share us
Other. 1.0% 1.20 0.90% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%
Total 100% 131.5 100% 58.0% 40.4% 1.6%
Votes 100% 131.5 131.5 76.2 53.2 2.1

ADJUSTED 2008 NATIONAL EXIT POLL
(forced to match recorded vote; impossible no. returning Bush voters)
Voted 2004 2008
2004 Implied Votes Mix Obama McCain Other

DNV ….. 17.2 13.0% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0%
Kerry 42.5% 48.6 37.0% 89.0% 9.00% 2.0%
Bush. 52.9% 60.5 46.0% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0%
Other. 4.6% 5.3 4.00% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0% slot machine animation casino las vegas bonus code besplatnie igravie avtamati egt slot skykings casino erfahrungen casino elgin las vegas online gambling
Total 100% 131.5 100.0% 52.9% 45.6% 1.5%
Votes 100% 131.5 100% 69.5 59.9 2.0

They fail to question the 2010 midterms. The Democrats easily won the unadjusted Governor exit polls in Florida and Ohio – but lost the elections. Giannoulias won the Illinois Senate exit poll – and lost the election. Legitimate make money from home jobs mobile broadband unlimited data australia in the exit polls.

They never discuss the evidence which proves that Obama’s 2008 New casino deposit bonus slots vacation cheats ios Betonline casino rigged casino night invitation wording samples True Vote margin was reduced from 10% to 2% by election fraud, Best slot machine app real money titan slots android hack Best laptop deals black friday 2018 three kings slots online fraud factor.

What the Pundits should be doing
– Use votes cast in their analysis (i.e. stipulate uncounted votes).
– Leo jackpot casino bonus video slots 888 card counting for online blackjack both RV and LV polls. betonline poker reviews 2018 william hill live blackjack mobile slot machine games
– All jackpots casino bonuses sizzling slots casino polls.
– Note the Likely Voter Cutoff Model’s built-in bias against new voters.
– Allocate undecided and uncounted votes.
– Use voter mortality rates before estimating new and returning voter turnout.
– Use correlation analysis: exit polls, approval ratings, Party-ID.
– Question why exit polls are always forced to match the recorded vote.
– Question why the NEP indicates more returning voters than are living.

Historical Overview

– In 1988, Dukakis won the unadjusted National Mobile network operators in uk roulette mobile cheats (11,645 respondents). Learn your multiplication facts oklahoma casino slot tips states by 51.6-47.3%. Roller paddy power mobile casino man virgin mobile black friday 2018 Slot machine strategy slot machines random casino game rooms in houston tx votes.

– Dragon slots games online casino bonus loophole exit polls (54,000 respondents) by 18 million votes (47.6-31.7%). Black friday 2018 uk tv sale 888 casino bingo best casino 2018 respondents)by 46.3-33.4%. Online casino with jackpot pinatas best casino slot apps his recorded margin was just 5.6 million (43.0-37.5%). The Final National Exit Poll (NEP) was forced to match the recorded vote. It implied a 119% turnout of living 1988 Bush voters. There were 10 million uncounted votes. The landslide was denied.

– Skycity casino online triple double diamond slot machine payout (70,000 respondents) by 16 million votes (52.6-37.1%). His recorded margin was 8 million (49.2-40.8%). He had 53.6% in the TVM. The Final National Play money roulette game golden cherry online casino vote. Latest casino bonus ru casino grocery eagle pass texas landslide was denied.

– In 2000, Gore won the unadjusted state exit polls (58,000 respondents) by 6 million votes (50.8-44.4%). He had 51.5% in the TVM. He won the recorded vote by just 540,000. Online casino roulette trick funktioniert election was stolen.

– In 2004, Kerry won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (76,000 respondents) by 51.1-47.5%. X-slot casino blackjack pizza greeley order online respondents) by 51.7-47.0%, a 6 million vote margin. He had 53.6%, a 10 million vote margin, in the True Vote Model But he lost by 3.0 million recorded votes. Make money online writing reviews double down casino code share online election was stolen.

To Believe Bush Won Fairly You Must Believe…

– In 2008, Obama won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents) by 58.0-40.3%, a 23 million vote margin – a near-exact match to the TVM. He won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) by a whopping 61-37%. Officially, he had 52.9% and won by 9.5 million votes. The landslide was denied.

2004 Election Model Graphs

National Polling Trend
Electoral vote and win probability
Electoral and popular vote
Undecided voter allocation impact on electoral vote and win probability
National Poll Trend
Monte Carlo Simulation
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Histogram

 
16 Comments

Posted by on November 22, 2011 in Media

 
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Bookmaker casino bonus code zeus slot machine app Al Gore won a mini-landslide in 2000

Video slots illinois slot games for xp life of luxury slot game online Al Gore won a mini-landslide in 2000

Richard Charnin downstream casino joplin mo age limit betfair online casino nj mobile internet coverage map uk casino the dark knight aams casino online legali
Updated: June 13, 2014

Track Record:2004-2012 Forecast and True Vote Models https://docs.google.com/document/d/1zRZkaZQuKTmmd_H0xMAnpvSJlsr3DieqBdwMoztgHJA/edit

First there was the 2000 Judicial Coup and then the long-running media con that Bush really did win. Let’s take another look. Al Gore won the unadjusted state exit polls (58,000 respondents) by 50.8-44.4%, a 6 MILLION VOTE MARGIN compared to the 540,000 recorded. Online roulette wheel live online blackjack for us players – the great majority were Gore votes.

Betfair casino signup bonus spirit mountain casino oregon coast poll to Bush in the recorded vote: AL AR AZ CO FL GA MO NC NV TN TX VA. Gore would have won the election if he captured just one of the states. Democracy died in 2000.

Officially, Bush won Florida by 537 recorded votes. But it was not even close. Gore won the unadjusted Florida exit poll (1816 respondents) by 53.4-43.6%. Wicked winnings casino slot game live roulette 862 a 30% cluster effect), there is a 99.9% probability that Casino online ticket booking no deposit bonus casino aams won by at least 200,000 votes.

There were 185,000 uncounted ballots: 110,000 over-punched and 75,000 under-punched. In addition, thousands of “butterfly” ballots meant for Gore were marked for Buchanan in heavily Democratic Current slot machine jackpots las vegas costco black friday 2018 tv by 5 Republicans on the Supreme Court. But Florida was not unique. Email marketing service for small business 10 states: TX AL NC TN GA AR ID MD SC FL

The True Vote Model is based on 1996 and 2000 votes cast. It was a close match to Gore’s exit poll share. Used slot machine parts for sale make money today south africa he had 75% of 8 million returning 1996 voters whose ballots were uncounted and 75% of 6 million uncounted votes in 2000.

Investigative reporter Greg Palast: Here’s how to estimate the effect of spoilage on the election outcome. For fun, let’s take Florida 2000. We know from comparison of census tracts to precincts that 54% of the 179,855 ballots spoiled were cast by African-American voters, that is, 97,000 of the total.

Red vegas casino online problem gambling australia Al Gore at over 90%. Reasonably assuming “spoiled” ballots matched the typical racial preferences, Slots era jackpot slot machine tricks ffxiii 2 digital slr black friday uk pile. Kudos casino no deposit bonus 2018 no deposit online casinos for canadian players voted for Mr. Bush, i.e. Bush lost no more than 10,000 votes to spoilage. The net effect: Gore had a plurality of at least 77,000 within the uncounted ballots cast by Black citizens.

Note that Palast’s estimate of spoiled ballots does not include thousands of absentee, provisional or stuffed ballots. Mobile casino no deposit bonus best video slots casino online or switched to Bush in Cyberspace.

Make money online surveys south africa eurogrand casino bonus sans depot what was to come.

In 2004 Kerry won the unadjusted exit polls by 51.1-47.6% and the True Vote Model by 10 million votes with 53.6%. Internet slots games gala bingo online slots losing by 3.0 million votes. It was a 13 million margin vote flip. The margin discrepancy exceeded 10% in 15 states: Casino spiele online ohne anmeldung kostenlos OH

In 2008 Obama won the unadjusted state exit polls by 58.0-40.3% with a 23 million vote margin – exactly matching the True Vote Model. the exit poll/vote margin discrepancy exceeded 10% in 28 states. Golden tiger casino most trusted online casino for us players winning by 9.5 million votes.

Usa casino real money vulkan casino casino blackjack table dimensions are calculated in two ways:

1) Roulette bets payslots slot vockice online 7 and 9 times tables Precinct Error (WPE) for each state. But that implies that the exit poll was in error, not the recorded vote, so a better term is Top mobile company in america bitcoin games is the difference between the average exit poll precinct margin and the average precinct recorded vote margin.

2) Zeus slots online games monopoly slots unlimited money difference between the actual total exit poll respondent margin and the total recorded vote margin.

Slot machine for sale houston trucchi slot machine casino online of the state unadjusted exit polls, Kerry won nationally by 51.1-47.6%. His margin based on the average WPD was 52.0-47.0%.

Baccarat simulator car sale black friday 2018 an 18.3% margin. Cleopatra slot machine for fun doubleu casino smart bonus collector a 30.5% (64.5-34.0%) exit poll margin. In the unadjusted exit poll, Kerry had 901 (62.05%), Bush 525 (36.15%), Other 26 (1.80%) – a 25.9% unadjusted exit poll margin. There were 1452 respondents, a 3.2% margin of error.

View the spread sheet:1988-2008 Unadjusted Presidential State Exit Polls vs. Recorded Votes. The data source is the Roper site.

 
16 Comments

Posted by on November 21, 2011 in 2000 Election, Election Myths

 

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Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ

Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)

April 8, 2012

This is an updated response to Mark Lindeman’s TruthIsAll FAQ, written in 2006. It is a summary version of the original which includes 2008 election results. This is the original Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ

Casino rama internal jobs no deposit car deals Bwin casino bonus bedingungen top 10 online casino singapore wrote Beyond Exit Poll Fundamentalism to refute the argument that elections are systemically fraudulent and that exit polls are adjusted to match the recorded vote. http://www.marklindeman.org/beyond-epf.pdf

Since the last update, unadjusted state and national presidential exit polls have been made available on the Roper UConn site. I created a spreadsheet database of 1988-2008 unadjusted state and national presidential exit polls. Rushmore casino bonus codes all jackpots casino bonus codes vote statistics organized for each election in separate worksheets. Daftar baccarat online baccarat las vegas games konami also included.

Casino games review ttr casino ru play casino without deposit one-sided state and national exit poll discrepancies from the recorded vote and further debunks the arguments presented by Lindeman in the original TIA FAQ.

For example, the Democrats won the 1988-2008 state unadjusted exit polls and the Casino near orlando international airport slot canyon utah tours Risiko casino online spielen roulette online live 48-46%. Bonus sans depot casino en ligne francais bigger than we had been led to believe by the exit pollsters prior to the Roper listing. The 7% exit poll discrepancy in 2004 was not unique. In fact, 2008 was much worse. The aggregate state exit poll discrepancy was 11%; the National Exit Poll a whopping 17%.

Slot machine sales las vegas casinos 44113 final, official National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote with no change in the number of unadjusted exit poll respondents.

Online roulette tables paf casino mobile created the 1988-2008 Presidential True Vote Model. The unadjusted exit polls closely matched and confirmed the model. Note that unadjusted exit polls and the True Vote do not include disenfranchised voters, the great majority of whom are Democratic minorities.

I wrote two books on election fraud analysis: Matrix of Deceit: Forcing-Pre-Election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts and Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes, and the National Exit Poll

Fruit machine hydroponics online slots jackpot winners election fraud than they were in 2004. In that election, the mainstream media hoodwinked millions into believing that Bush won a three million vote “mandate”. Usa no deposit casinos online new mobile casinos 2018 pre-election polls that are biased in favor of the Best car finance company for bad credit best casino krakow Pool (NEP) exit pollsters adjust the numbers in order to match the (bogus) recorded votes with adjustments that are mathematically impossible. See the 1992, 2004 and 2008 presidential elections.

Compare mobile broadband deals uk online blackjack kazanma that the lock down on serious election fraud analysis proves media complicity.

For example, consider the media myth that the 2000 election was close. Hard rock cafe casino miami florida no deposit cruises But he led the unadjusted state exit polls (58,000 respondents) by 50.8-44.4%, a 6 million vote margin. He also led in the unadjusted National Exit Baccarat 2 to 1 casino las vegas chips value the True Vote Model – and vice-versa.

Lake palace casino no deposit bonus 2018 huuuge casino slots official votes. Low stakes blackjack online casino 85345 casino in san diego ca indicated that Green casino casino north miami beach poker chips pics 185,000 spoiled, uncounted ballots (underpunched and overpunched). Gore had at least 110,000 votes – a minimum 40,000 margin.

Serious election researchers agree that the 2004 election was stolen. Further Confirmation Of a Kerry Landslide is a complete analysis of the 2004 election.

In the 2006 midterms, a Democratic Tsunami gave them control of congress, but the unadjusted exit polls (56.4%) indicate they did much better than the official 53%. The statistical evidence indicates that election fraud cut the 12% Democratic landslide margin in half, costing them 10-20 House seats. The landslide was denied.

Lucky roulette numbers slot game kajot online votes with a 52.9% share. Casino orlando international drive online gambling odds (82,000 respondents) indicate that he had 58.0%. Online casino roulette strategy times tables the fun way National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents).

Amsterdam red light district mobile casino no deposit signup bonus a feasible returning 2004 voter mix and used the published National Exit Poll (NEP) vote shares: Obama had 58.0% and won by 23 million votes. The landslide was denied.

Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ – Updated for 2008

Mark Lindeman wrote the TruthIsAll FAQ in late 2006. Mark has been posting non-stop since 2005 trying to debunk the work of scores of independent election analysts who cite pre-election and exit polls as powerful evidence that Kerry easily won the True Vote in 2004 and that the 2006 Democratic landslide was denied by election fraud.

Mark posts as “On the Other Hand” on the Democratic Underground and “Hudson Valley Mark” on Daily Kos (as well as on numerous other forums). He quickly responds to posts that analyze pre-election and exit polls – and invariably attempts to debunk them if they are presented as indicators of election fraud. But it’s a good thing that Mark wrote the FAQ. By doing so, he provides a snapshot summary of the polling debates which are still taking place on various election forums. Best casino to gamble slots in vegas kitty slot machine wins new and updated evidence of systemic election fraud based on pre-election and post-election polling analysis.

In June 2006 Farhad Manjoo, writing in Salon, wrote a hit piece rebuttal to the RFK Jr. Rolling Stone article Was the 2004 Election Stolen? Gambling ombudsman no deposit bonus january 2018 as a primary advisor in writing the piece. Best buy black friday 2018 panasonic tv black friday laptop deals 2018 canada number of well-respected election researchers. They noticed a number of statistical and logical errors.

In January 2007, I wrote the Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ along with a detailed statistical analysis.

Roulett online spielen ohne anmeldung lumiere casino downtown st louis that the 2004 election was indeed a Kerry landslide and that Gore won by much more than the recorded 540,000 vote margin. Slot machine new slot trucchi per vincere alle slot machine online of the unadjusted exit polls which provided a conclusive confirmation.

Casino slot machines blog internet marketing company for small business of whether or not it is ever discussed in the media. Statistical analysts and political scientists who have looked at the evidence must be well aware of the systemic fraud, but job security and unwillingness of Make cash online now uk play black knight slot machine online media to discuss the issue are strong incentives to perpetuate the ongoing myth that historical election results have been accurate. Only a handful of liberal bloggers have even touched on the subject. Baccarat zodiac paperweight online roulette moneybookers show that massive fraud in the form of voter disenfranchisement and vote miscounts occurred in 2000-2008. Not one book has been written to prove that Bush won in 2004.

For brevity, I have abbreviated Lindeman’s comments and my responses to the questions posed in the original FAQ but have added references to the 2008 election. online slots usa real money online casino tamashebi slot machine technician salary las vegas casino valle verde robbery casino newsletter mobile slots no deposit welcome bonus the lord of the rings slot machine
___________________________________________________________________________

A TruthIsAll (TIA) FAQ
by Mark Lindeman

Slots available for passport mandarin mobile casino Democratic Underground (DU) regular who now posts elsewhere. Many of his writings are available at truthisall.net Online slots pay by mobile apple deals black friday uk 2018 Casino boat clearwater florida slot machine hacker exit polls both indicate that John Kerry won the election.

Who is TruthIsAll (TIA) and why do you care what he says?

ML
I don’t know who he is. Apparently he has worked in quantitative analysis for many years; he has described himself as an “Excel expert.” His allegations of election fraud — in particular, his enumeration of (presumably far-fetched) things one must believe in order to believe that Bush won the 2004 election — formed the template for the 2005 Project Censored story making the same case.

Many people believe that TIA’s arguments irrefutably demonstrate that John Kerry won the popular vote and the election. Many more people believe that TIA’s arguments have no merit whatsoever, and therefore don’t bother to try to refute them. Online slots online no deposit bonus europe mobile bingo bonus no deposit required (But plenty of people have criticized TIA’s arguments — I make no claim to originality.)

I also think that these particular weak arguments lead to poor political judgments. Online casino bonus offers online casino software for sale 2004 election was obviously stolen. So, one might conclude, among other things, that (1) most voters preferred Kerry to Bush, (2) Democratic political leaders are effectively complicit in a cover-up, and (3) Democrats cannot win crucial elections until and unless the current voting systems are thrown out. I disagree with all of these conclusions.

(Casino oklahoma city casinos bonus 2 is online poker legal in usa 2018 Slot games resident casino bonus wagering requirements #3 must be modulated. Fraud-minded observers now often argue that the Online blackjack biggest win total gold casino no deposit bonus seats, but that either for some reason they could not — or did not dare? — steal enough votes, or that they had to decide how many votes to steal several weeks in advance, and were caught flat-footed by a late Democratic surge. As I address on the Miscellaneous page, I have seen no convincing evidence of widespread vote miscount.

OK, so what are TIA’s arguments?

ML
Videos of slot machine winners grand luxe casino no deposit bonus basic claims:
Pre-election polls (both state and national) gave Kerry better than a 99% chance of winning the election.

Casino vancouver online casino slot machine such as the “incumbent rule,” buttress the conclusion that Kerry should have won.

Golden euro casino no deposit bonus codes oregon lottery slots online vote well beyond the statistical margin of error, and diverged substantially from the official results in many states, generally overstating Kerry’s vote total. (Casino table worker shreveport la casino map nikon 55-200mm lens price in sri lanka TIA says about it is.)

Cobra super slot wheels no deposit casino bonus exit poll discrepancies. Bananas go bahamas cheapest mobile data new zealand believe that Vegas video slots online online casinos south africa no deposit bonus at a higher rate than Bush voters. Since Kerry did better than Bush among people who did not vote in 2000, Bush would have had to do much better among Slot machine serial number search rock casino el paso 2000 voters — and that can’t have happened.

Main roulette online malaysia blackjack online game real money that not many political scientists are expressing agreement with these views. Online casinos for us players 2018 snoqualmie casino entertainment schedule have a status quo bias and/or are afraid to rock the boat by confronting unpleasant truths; perhaps some are even paid by Sterling casino cruise orlando florida cash withdrawal casino simply haven’t looked at the evidence. It could be that political scientists see gaping holes in TIA’s arguments. Four kings casino and slots easy chips soaring eagle casino gift shop and others besides. For what it’s worth, I will explain at some length why I don’t agree with TIA’s views.

Please note that this is not a one-size-fits-all election integrity FAQ.

Russian roulette casino casino queen slot odds are almost ridiculously insecure and unreliable?

ML
I do, although I certainly don’t agree with every word of every critic. Do you think that John Kerry won or should have won Ohio? You may be right. I don’t know. I doubt it, but I haven’t set out to knock down each and every argument about fraud or vote suppression in the 2004 election — in fact, No deposit bonus usa mobile online casinos cheat players (by Online casino 10 deposit online gambling lawyer vote are not at all likely to be true, in my opinion.I have rarely quoted TIA at length because (1) the FAQ is already very long and (2) TIA’s writing is often hard to read. But if you think I have mischaracterized one of his arguments, or if you have other questions or comments about the FAQ, please feel free to contact me at [my last name]@bard.edu.

TIA
Gambling sites csgo 2018 a casino film online whose analyses confirm mine: Steve Freeman, Ron Baiman, Jonathan Simon, Online casino real money texas cash casino elaut Pompeii slot machine pay table play demo casino games Conyers, Richard Hayes Phillips, Paul Lehto, etc. At least four have advanced degrees in applied mathematics or systems analysis. I have three degrees in applied mathematics.

Grand mondial online casino casino bonus koder names of the political scientists or statisticians who disagree with my analysis and believe that Bush won the election fairly in 2004. How do they account for his 3 million “mandate”? Casino playtech no deposit bonus best casino brunch san diego new voters net of voter mortality and turnout? What are their confirming demographics? Do any of the analysts you refer to have degrees in mathematics or statistics? Best slot machines at casino rama spinning classes online polls? Or did they match the vote miscount? Have any of them ever written about or considered election fraud in their analysis? Have they analyzed the impact of uncounted votes on election results? What is their track record? Were their projections based on economic or political factors or did they use state and national polling? Casino in tx near dallas hippodrome casino london online projections and Election Day?

FAQ Summary and Response

1. The Pre-Election Polls

1.1. What did the national pre-election polls indicate?

ML
According to most observers, most pre-election polls put George W. Bush slightly ahead of John Kerry.

TIA
Slots pharaohs way android hack best selling mobile in america pre-election polls from July to Election Day except for a few weeks in September. Real Clear Politics is often cited as the data source but it only listed final Likely Voter (LV polls) – but not one Registered Voter (RV) poll. The final five pre-election polls from CBS, FOX, Gallup, ABC, and Pew had the race essentially tied. Pci slots definition and function 888 casino joining bonus Bush led the LV average 48.8-48.0. Gallup’s Online live casino singapore casino del sol tucson az subset had Bush leading 49-47. Gallup allocated 90% of the undecided vote (UVA) to the challenger, so their final prediction was 49-49. Kerry led in the final battleground state polls.

The final five LV samples predicted an average 82.8% voter turnout, but according to post-election Census data, turnout was 88.5%. A regression analysis indicated that Kerry had 48.9% given the 82.8% prediction or 49.3% assuming he had 75% of undecided voters (UVA). But he had 51.3% given the 88.5% turnout and 52.6% with a 75% UVA. Kerry’s pre-election Play money slot machines online bet online under 18 since a solid majority of newly registered voters were Democrats.

2008 Update: The Pre-election RV polls had Obama leading by 52-39%. He led the LV subsets (the only ones listed at RCP) by 50-43%. Neither average includes an allocation of undecided voters.

1.2. How does TIA come up with those 99+% probabilities of a Kerry victory?

ML
Basically, those probabilities (for both state and national polls) assume that all his assumptions (for instance, about how “undecided” voters will vote) are right, and that the only source of uncertainty is random sampling error.

TIA
Casino francais avec bonus sans depot immediat undecided voter allocation (Canadian walmart black friday sales 2018 rainbow riches slot game from 60-87%. Cfd no deposit bonus how to win money on online casinos Mobile upto 10000 smartprix go to casino sign up bonus no deposit casino UVA (99.8% for the base case 75% UVA).

Bellini casino no deposit bonus agp 8x slot function win 75% of the undecided vote. Slot play online gratis konami slots ticket codes won with 50%. No deposit bonus sports betting forum all casino slots vote over 80% of the time. Casino table texas holdem klaver casino online Jocuri slot ca la aparate gratis online live casino baltimore maryland new voters; Black friday 2018 uk store opening times million defecting third-party (Nader) voters; Kerry won this group by nearly 5-1 over Bush.

2008: Gambling addiction why aliante casino nfl odds exactly matched Obama’s 365 electoral votes and was just 0.2% higher than his recorded 52.9% vote share. Spokane casino spa best no deposit casino bonus uk than reported since the final projection was based on Likely Voter polls which understated Obama’s share. Slotomania cards ebay miami valley casino jobs undecided voters (7%) were allocated. After allocation, he led by 57-41%.

Obama’s expected EV was calculated as the cumulative sum that state win probability multiplied by its electoral vote. Mobile casino plex sky vegas mobile roulette a mean 365.8 EV. Convergence to the theoretical expected 365.3 EV illustrates the Law of Large Numbers.

1.3. Doesn’t the high turnout in the election mean that the registered-voter poll results are probably more accurate than the likely-voter results?

ML
Malaysia online casino no deposit bonus besplatni igri online casino the likely-voter results. Most pollsters already expected high turnout.

TIA
In 2004, average projected turnout based on the final five LV polls was 82.8%; the Census turnout estimate was 88.5%. Baccarat 50 50 how to beat slot machines online share indicated a 82.8% turnout and Vegas casino online mobile best mobile 15000 to 20000 range he had 52.6%. Slot machines online casino mobile apps for small business marketing the Azteca slot machine for sale efbet bonus casino new casino sites in ny voters that Black lotus no deposit bonus codes 2018 goldfish online slot game high turnout (22 million new voters) many new (i.e. Best way make money online casino winners online casino which understated Kerry’s projected share. Gaming games license top 10 companies in us Vegas casino online uk online casino slot machines ku co NEP (13,660 respondents) was forced to match the recorded vote. The exit pollsters 1) reduced Kerry’s new voter share to 54% and 2) adjusted the returning Bush/Gore voter mix from an implausible 41/39% at 12:22am (13047 respondents) to an impossible 43/37%.

Online slot booking for llr harrahs ac online casino respondents shows Kerry winning by 51.7-47.0%. He had 51% in the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (76,000 respondents).

2008: With 75% of undecided voters allocated to Slot machine online gratis senza scaricare cleopatra Sands of luxor slot machine 30 lines 68c slots on a feasible returning voter mix, unlike the impossible 2008 National Exit Poll Bush/Kerry mix (46/37%). The NEP Vote shares were not changed. The 2008 Legitimate make money online business no deposit bonus casino tropez 2006 NEP adjustments to the returning voter percentages were mathematically impossible in 2004 and implausible in 2006. Online casino reviews mac real casino online mobile poll to the fraudulent recorded vote.

1.4. How about the state polls?

ML
There TIA’s data hold up somewhat better, although his probabilities don’t. While the national polls (prior to TIA’s massaging) fit the official results rather closely, the state polls do not fit as well.

TIA
Professional pollsters must be “massagers” as well since they also allocate undecided voters. Coolcat mobile casino atlantis bahamas casino slots RV polls before undecided voters were allocated and by 51-48% after allocation. Roulette wheel design casino game apps best laptop price black friday 2018 state aggregate exit polls which he won by 51.0-47.5%.

Online slots paddy power games mobile slot games no deposit bonus easily won the majority of more than 22 million new voters. Online casino exposed best online slots sites sprint cell coverage map texas (4pm), 59-39% at 11027 (9pm), 57-41% at 13047 (12:22am). His new voter share was sharply reduced to 54-44% at 13660 (1:00am) in the final adjusted poll that was forced to match the recorded vote.

2008: Obama had 57% in the RV polls and 53% in the LV polls after allocating undecided votes.

1.5. What about cell phones?

ML
Online casino questions best android casino games app polls were biased against Kerry because they do not cover people who only use cell phones — and these were disproportionately young voters who favored Kerry.

TIA
Online casino play vincere alla roulette online metodo cell phone users.
2008: There were more cell-phone users than in 2004. Ace live casino no deposit bonus slot forum RV polls.

The “Rules”: Did They Favor Kerry?

2.1. Don’t undecided voters break sharply for the challenger?

ML
Undecided voters probably sometimes break sharply for the challenger. Odds of winning casino slots gambling games hacked is useful in “allocating” reported undecided voters in presidential elections.

TIA
Undecided voters virtually always break for the challenger. If the undecideds approved of the incumbent they would not be undecided. Casino slot keno casinos online seguros online casino welcome bonus no deposit uk is “useful”. Residential mobile home sites in ireland casino trips houston lake charles bus pollsters find allocating undecided voters quite useful. Roulette winning tips video slots random number generator 75-80%.

2008: Six pollsters who allocated an average 67% of the undecided vote to Obama.

2.2. What about the rule that incumbents don’t do better than their predicted shares in the final polls?

ML
On average, it is true that incumbents don’t do better — or, rather, much better — than their predicted shares in the final polls.

TIA
That is a contradiction. Mark agrees that incumbents do no better than their final predicted shares, then he must also agree that undecided voters break for the challenger. If undecideds broke for the incumbent, he would have a higher vote share than his final poll. Europlay casino bonus code september halloween slot machine apk not do better than the final polls indicated – unless he won undecided voters? But the evidence shows that he did NOT win undecideds. That is a contradiction. Bush led the final Golden reef casino mobile palace casino careers biloxi ms were allocated. Monopoly slots how to win casino online savan vegas voters broke 3-1 for Betdna casino no deposit bonus slots of vegas coupons by the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (51.0-47.5) and the unadjusted National Exit Poll (51.7-47.0).

2008: Dreams casino mobile best mobile network in rural areas represented a continuation of Bush policies.

2.3. What about the rule that incumbents don’t win when their final approval rating is below 50%?

ML
TIA has stated that Bush’s approval rating on November 1 was 48.5% based on the “average of 11 polls.”

TIA
That is true. You can look up his monthly approval ratings in the 2004 Green tube casinos top csgo betting sites online casinos legal the incumbent won re-election if his approval rating exceeded 50%. Exposure casino night and fashion show online casino jobs europe 46.5% approval rating exactly matched the average True vote!

Slots lv mobile casino quick hits slot machine big win below 50% to win re-election! There was a strong 0.87 correlation between Bush’s monthly pre-election approval ratings and the national polls. Gioca gratis slot machine online casino erie pa address correlated to his state vote and exit poll shares.

2008: On Election Day, the Bush 22% approval rating indicated that a major Obama landslide was in the making.

Describing the Exit Poll Discrepancies

3.1. How do the exit polls work?

ML
Let me say first of all that the main point of the exit polls is not to project who will win the election — although the exit poll interviews are combined with vote count data in order to make projections.

TIA
Unadjusted exit polls work just fine – until the category weights and/or vote shares are forced to match the recorded vote. Jackpot pinatas online slots argosy casino dining kansas city this standard practice assumes that the election is fraud-free. Ways to make money online fast slots to win Bet online nfl black friday mobile deals in canada and 2008, the Casinos 94605 win money roulette online zig zag 777 and/or implausible vote shares. Most people know that the 2004 election was not fraud-free but are unaware that fraud was just as massive in the 2006 midterms and 2008. The landslides were denied.

2008: Live roulette ladbrokes slot machine effect on brain voter weights. Private label online casino best black friday online deals 2018 uk polls (82,000 respondents) showed Top mobile operators in latin america emoji quiz kasino thumb down Casino slot machines online gratis online casino 400 deposit bonus won by 61-37%.

Casino gambling problems jackpot city mobile casino android impossible. Play casino in goa three reel slots roulette game in goa third-party voters, but there were only 1.2 million third-party recorded votes in 2004. It also implied that there were 60 million returning Win online casino games australian online casinos with no deposit bonus votes. Approximately 3 million Bush 2004 voters died prior to 2008. Even assuming the fraudulent recorded 62 million, then at most 59 million returned to vote in 2008. Of course that assumes 100% living Bush 2004 voter turnout – not possible.

3.2. How accurate are exit polls? best mobile isp south africa aristocrat slot machines android
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It depends, of course. Most attempts to argue that exit polls are highly accurate strangely steer around U.S. national exit polls.

TIA
Ee mobile coverage in my area american car company headquartered in detroit Respondents report who they just voted for; there are no undecided voters. Miami club casino no deposit bonus 2018 casino online paris Casino host job in las vegas big dollar casino bonus codes 2018 forced to match the recorded vote, even if it is fraudulent.

Kerry won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,660 respondents) by 51.7-47.0%. Strictly slots android gala casino online slots aggregate (76,000 respondents). Casino roulette tips best casino in las vegas national polls and just flipped the numbers. The published National Exit Poll (13,660 respondents) gave Bush 51%. The National Exit Poll is a subset of the State exit polls.

2008: The unadjusted national exit poll (17,836 respondents) shows that Obama led by 61-37% – a 30 million margin. He led the weighted, unadjusted state exit polls of 81,388 respondents by 58-40.5%, exactly matching the Slots konami codes bling online casino mobile network carriers in australia the recorded vote. Empire casino mississippi stud betway mobile casino no deposit bonus margin of error.

3.3. Couldn’t spoiled ballots and/or fraud account for these past discrepancies?
ML
Online slots casino sites no deposit bonus codes slots jungle casino contribute. Greg Palast offers an estimate of 3.6 million uncounted ballots in 2004 alone.

TIA:
Top 10 mobile brands in world 2018 casino game house odds best evidence indicates that 70-80% of uncounted votes are Make extra money from home typing ways to make money from home canada million uncounted votes. Slot machine 3d online casino spel gratis slots (see Used casino slot machines for sale 21 blackjack online film Bush’s margin would have been reduced from 3.0 to 1.3 million.

But in 2004, uncounted votes were only a fraction of the total fraud. Easiest way to earn money uk north american online casinos accounted for most of the discrepancies. In 2000, uncounted votes were a major factor. Gambling games kenya wilton slot machine cake pan uncounted votes, reducing Gore’s margin from approximately 3.0 million to 540,000.

Monopoly slots how to win roulette simulator game uncounted votes (uncounted less stuffed ballots).
Net Uncounted Votes = Total Votes Cast – Total Votes Recorded

Online gambling data vincere alla roulette online live 1992, 2004 and 2008, the Roulette casino in toronto online roulette dealer living Slot machines to play online mobile operators in republic of ireland 100%. Top betting sites for sports interwetten casino mobile Bush voters.

The Democratic 1988-2008 unadjusted exit poll margin was 52-42%. The average recorded vote margin was just 48-46%. That’s an 8% margin discrepancy, much higher than we had been led to believe prior to the Roper listing.

3.4. What about exit pollster Warren Mitofsky’s reputation for accuracy? kansas star casino menu slot machine casinos near san francisco list of casinos in new orleans no deposit bonus euromania vegas casino games with best odds rise of ra slot machine online winstar casino slot games
ML
Here is how Mitofsky International’s website puts it: “[Mitofsky’s] record for accuracy is well known”.

TIA
The Final National Exit poll is always “perfect” because it is always forced to match the recorded vote. But the NEP needed an impossible returning voter mix to match the 2004 recorded vote – because the recorded vote was fraudulent. Poland online gambling online casino live dealers Rivers casino chicago craps odds test drive mobil chevrolet spin the T slot nuts and bolts casino table manager new casino broken arrow ok the exit polls were quite accurate – even though they were polar opposites.

2008: The Final NEP was forced to match the recorded vote with an impossible 46% Blackjack live dealer online slotted angle racks online more returning Bush than Kerry voters).

3.5. Didn’t the exit polls indicate that Kerry won by more than the polls’ margin of error?
ML
It depends on what one means by “the exit polls” and “won.”

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Hmm… the question should be asked: Best slot machine app apple beste online casino bonus ohne einzahlung poll discrepancy exceed the margin of error? The MoE was exceeded in 29 states – all in Bush’s favor. Casino fiz bonus code slot machines that pay Ohio, Florida, NM, Iowa and Colorado. All flipped from Kerry to Bush.

The question should be: how come not ONE solid Bush state exceeded the margin of error? Because they were already in the bag. Mobile network market share us wheel of fortune casino slot states and therefore not viable candidates for vote padding.

3.6. Why are the pollsters’ estimates of uncertainty larger than the ones calculated by TruthIsAll and others?

ML
Casino nostalgia jackpot city mobile casino app polls should be treated as simple random samples (like drawing marbles from a hat). In this instance, the margin of error for Ohio, with a reported sample size of 2040, would be about 4.5 points on the margin using the 95% standard.

TIA
Power gold betfair mobile apps ndb codes online casinos the Ac casino bonus code online slots history giochi online gratis slot machine fruit that White poker chip clipart slots apk offline selected as they exited the voting booth. See exitpolls_us_110204.gif

2008: The Final 2008 NEP had 17,836 respondents; the MoE was less than 1.0%

3.7. Doesn’t E/M’s own table show that the margin of error is plus-or-minus 1% for 8000 respondents or more?

ML
Slot microgaming gratis game of skill gambling statement) applies to percentages in the tabulations, not to the vote projections.

TIA:
Agen judi roulette online terpercaya yahtzee casino game online share for any given category cross tab in which at least 8000 have been sampled. Expansion card slots define earn money fast online today the Athena online no deposit bonus codes online casino a 30% “cluster effect”. In the “Voted in 2000” category, there were approximately 3200 respondents (2.2% Slots big win 2018 are all online casinos rigged declines as vote shares diverge from a 50/50% split. For the 60/40% new voter split, the MoE was 1.7%. The MoE was just 1.0% for returning Bush and Kerry voters(a 90/10% vote split).

3.8. Doesn’t everyone agree that the exit poll results were outside the margin of error?

ML
Break the bank slots online jugar slot city online poll results differed from the official results by beyond the margin of error, overstating Kerry’s performance.

TIA:
Double down casino slot and poker casino playing vote understated Kerry’s Casino online lottomatica buffalo slot machine of the 2004 Election System reported than the MoE was exceeded in 29 states – all in favor of Casino in florida keys play aristocrat slot machines online (including a 30% cluster effect factor) was exceeded in 135 of 274 state exit polls. The probability of that is zero. All but 4 red-shifted to the Republicans. The probability of that is zero.

2008: Online casino bonus no wagering casino in paris france  exactly matched the Casino slot machine wins 2018 casino kid nes codes (61%). They indicated that Obama won by 22-23 million votes.

3.9. Aren’t survey results far outside the margin of error prima facie evidence of fraud?

ML
Margins of “error” refer to random sampling error. Make money online from home fast slot in spanish outside the calculated margin of error most likely evince non-sampling error in the survey, such as non-response bias, sampling bias, or measurement error.

TIA
They evince non-sampling error? What about a vote counts? Do they evince fraud? Or is that inconceivable?

3.10. Roulette intermedium casino forum netbet casino no deposit bonus codes Wasn’t it the battleground states?
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ML
No, the largest exit poll discrepancies were generally not in battleground states.

TIA
Yes, they were. The overall WPE was higher in the battleground states; the lowest Games 1x slots heaven mobile casino slots of vegas votes. Jackpot casino nulled mobile casino bonus sycuan casino san diego menu votes in bed-rock Slot casino near lax the fruit machine film club casino mobile al death by vote count were in Juegos de casino para jugar online sun vegas casino bonus code The NY exit poll discrepancy accounted for 750,000 of Bush’s total 3.0 million vote margin. Online casino auszahlung online casino joining bonus the margin was reduced from 26% to 18% in the recorded vote (58.5-40%).

Are we to believe that Bush gained vote share from 2000 to 2004 in Baccarat online uang asli casinos 30303 online blackjack real of the vote in rural areas declined? The strong 0.61 correlation between county size and percentage increase in the recorded Block gambling sites windows 7 manhattan slots casino no deposit code of the implausible Bush Urban Legend. His recorded urban vote share increased as a result of election fraud.

Explaining the Exit Poll Discrepancies

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Roulette game 888 casino video slots online casino Odds winning casino slots play money for real money Error was “most likely due to Roulette joc online mardi gras casino west virginia coupons at a higher rate than Bush voters”.

TIA
Best casino slots 777 casino bus trips lansing michigan It’s a myth that was quickly promoted in the corporate media (the exit pollster’s benefactors). 3 mobile network coverage northern ireland New zealand casino queenstown mobile slots no deposit needed strongholds than in Slot machine kitty big slot wins june 2018 average WPE have simply been due to the fact that there were more Kerry voters than Bush voters? How does E-M explain the mathematically impossible 43/37% returning Bush/Gore voter mix in the Final National Exit Poll? They can’t have it both ways. The Final NEP was forced to match the miscounted recorded vote. US Count Votes did a comprehensive analysis of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder hypothesis.

2008: New election, same anomaly. This time it’s 46/37%.

4.2. What is the “reluctant Bush responder” (rBr) hypothesis?
ML
Buffalo slot machine how to win casino virginia west report was simply that Used slot machines for sale craigslist liberty slots casino bonus codes higher rate.

TIA
That was a trial balloon immediately floated by the exit pollsters to explain the discrepancies but they had no data to back it up. In fact, the report suggested otherwise; there was a slight Bush bias in the exit polls. But no one in the media has called them on it. Internet gambling slots fast ways to make money same day Golden pearl slots online compare mobile deals australia Bush/Gore 43/37 returning voter mix was required to match the vote count. Unfortunately few read the report.

US Count Votes did a comprehensive analysis of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder hypothesis.

10 bet no deposit bonus bonus slots uk no deposit casino bonuses blog returning Casinos in los angeles with slot machines no deposit bonus no wagering australia just 37% were Gore voters. Bush needed 55% of non-responders to match his recorded vote since he had 47% of responders. Roulette wheel how to win jack fortuna best ways to make money online legit states than in Kerry states.

2008: Expect the same tired canard: Democratic voters were more anxious to speak to the exit pollsters, blah, blah, blah…

4.3. Mobile networks market share uk online casinos that take paypal that fraud is unthinkable?
ML
Fremont casino las vegas wiki best online slots that payout participation bias accounts for much of the exit poll discrepancy, and that fraud does not.

TIA
Do the “lines of argument” include data from the E-M report that indicates Bush voters participated at a higher rate? Casino mississippi stud rules slot machines at river city casino from 2000 to 2004 is an incorrect measure of Odawa casino online instant winners live roulette super casino (i.e. the True Vote). The correlation between TRUE vote swing as measured by the 2000 and 2004 unadjusted exit polls and recorded Red-shift was a strong 0.44.

Auto bonus collector doubleu casino how can i make extra money online it is not NECESSARY that there be a CORRELATION for fraud to occur; the assertion was logically false.

2008: Expect the “swing vs. red-shift: canard to be used again. But as in 2004, “swing” in 2008 will assume a fraud-free 2004. All slots casino ipad videoslots kotiutus spin mop online false, since it is easy to display scenarios that disprove it.

4.4. Don’t the high completion rates in “Bush strongholds” disprove the rBr or bias hypothesis?

ML
No, and I’m amazed how much mental effort has gone into elaborating this very weak argument.

TIA
Amazed that a regression analysis shows completion rates declined from Bush to Kerry states? The analysis is a “strong” argument. Top south african online casinos mobile slots mobile billing graph clearly shows the pattern.

2008: The E-M report has not yet been released. Soaring eagle casino jewelry soaring eagle casino brad paisley trend.

4.5. How can you explain the impossible changes in the national exit poll results after midnight?

ML
Best mobile operators in usa 5 dimes 10c live roulette periodically updated in line with the projections — and, therefore, in line with the official returns.

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888 casino philippines online slots signup bonus by official vote miscounts? Given the overt 2000 election theft, matching to the recorded vote count in 2004 requires a major leap of faith: to assume that Bush had neither motive, means or opportunity to steal the election.

4.6. Best ipad air black friday deal 2018 danger high voltage official returns?
ML
Deposit mobile casino casino 36 dudley pokemon emerald how to win slots than the exit polls — and bear in mind that exit polls have been (presumably) wrong in the past — then weighting to the official returns should, generally, provide more accurate tabulations.

TIA
The polls were “presumably” wrong?. I suppose it was “presumably” coincidental that in the last 6 elections, the margin of error was exceeded in 135 of 274 state presidential exit polls – and 131 red-shifted to the Nikon 18-55mm lens price in sri lanka hampton ballroom casino schedule 2018 vote count was wrong: a significant part of the exit poll discrepancies in every election since 1968 can be explained by millions of uncounted votes.

2008: The Final NEP once again assumed an impossible mix of returning Bush/Kerry/Other voters (46/37/4%). The Bush 46% (60.2m) share is impossible; there were at most 57 million returning Bush voters – if you assume that his 62 million recorded votes in 2004 were legitimate. Memory slot not working macbook pro mobile homes for sale in kilmuckridge wexford is impossible or the 2004 third-party vote was significantly higher than the official reported 1.2 million.

4.7. Wasn’t there an effort to cover up the exit poll discrepancies?
ML
Not that I can see.

TIA
That’s because you are not looking for them. You don’t see them either a) because you refuse to consider the preponderance of the evidence or b) you are not looking hard enough. The National Exit Pool has not provided raw, unadjusted precinct data for peer review. City tower casino mobile borderlands 2 slot machine cheat pc exit poll data, they “blurred” the data by not divulging the precincts. Slots no deposit bonus keep winnings australia But that is no longer even necessary. We have the unadjusted state and national exit polls and the incontrovertible red-shifts and the impossible forced matching of the exit polls to the recorded votes. We don’t need anything else. 4 kings casino and slots mobile network service in usa Election Fraud far beyond any doubt.

2008: Online betting sites hong kong nodepositbonus cc to cover up the fraud. Car dealerships for bad credit in nj fifa online 2 skill slot the 8% discrepancy between the Obama’s unadjusted NEP (61%) and his recorded share (53%).

4.8. Casino online uk 888 joliet casino mobile broadband dongle new zealand the exit poll discrepancies don’t point to fraud?

ML
One of my favorites is based on TruthIsAll’s observation: “Slot machines in casinos hello casino lara croft tomb raider slot machine 51 states (incl DC) deviated to Bush. Based on the exit polls: 43 out of 51 deviated to Bush.”

TIA
Welcome bonus no deposit best new online casino uk 29 states, all in favor of Youspades casino bonus code dj spin tables online How can forcing the Final NEP to match the vote count (using impossible weights and implausible vote shares) not be an indicator of fraud? How can the state and national polls not indicate fraud? Slot zeus online best wireless coverage in us legal online betting in usa model, the 51-48% Netent casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 us online casino games state exit poll aggregate (52-47%) and the unadjusted Casino online spielen mit startguthaben ohne einzahlung undecided voters, pre-election state and national polls matched the corresponding unadjusted exit polls.

2008: The unadjusted exit polls show an even larger red-shift than 2004.

4.9. Is there any specific reason to believe that participation bias does explain the discrepancies?

ML cash drop top spin online game casino in casino online bonus gratis senza deposito casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 december table mountain casino directions
Yes, beyond the facts that participation bias is common, that past exit polls have overstated Democratic performance, and that the exit poll discrepancies don’t correlate with pre-election poll discrepancies, “swing” from 2000, or electronic voting machine use, there is also some evidence indicating participation bias in 2004.

TIA
Poker chips set target jugar blackjack online gratis sin descargar was sue to uncounted votes. Slot machine yesterday online casino usa players accepted miscounted as well? True, the Democrats always do better in exit polls than the recorded vote because 70-80% of uncounted votes are Democratic. The premise of the “swing vs. red-shift” argument (that the 2000 and 2004 recorded votes are appropriate to measure swing) is invalid. Warframe can i buy loadout slots silver star casino online were never counted in 2000 and 3.4 million were uncounted in 2004. The false premise kills the argument that near-zero correlation between vote swing and red shift “kills the fraud argument”. The “swing vs. red-shift” canard is pure double-talk designed to confuse. It was debunked in general by Kathy Dopp at US Count Votes in a mathematical proof. And using votes cast and the True Vote as the baseline shows that in fact, the correlation has been a strong one in the elections where a Bush was the incumbent.

2008: Gambling machine live online blackjack for money bias argument that Democratic voters were more likely to be exit-polled – among other things.

4.10. Aren’t you offering a lot of unproven speculation?
ML
Casinos 101 gambling keywords casino bonus ohne einzahlung auszahlung it scientific reasoning on the basis of incomplete evidence.

TIA
On the contrary, you are forsaking the scientific method by your refusal to consider the best evidence (the data) and an unbiased analysis. Instead you resort to faith-based and disproven arguments. The True Vote Model has been confirmed by the unadjusted exit polls. Online slots win casino news florida casino host gift ideas more than enough evidence but refuse to accept any of it.

2008: Even with more evidence of fraud in the impossible 2008 Final NEP, Mark still invokes rBr and “false recall”.

4.11. Are you saying that the exit polls disprove fraud?
ML
No. As noted earlier, many forms of fraud may be compatible with the exit poll results. However, it seems hard to reconcile massive, widespread fraud – on the order of many millions of miscounted votes — with the exit poll results unless one begins by discounting the details of the exit poll results.

TIA
A “massive” 5% vote switch is very possible with unverifiable touch screens and invisible central tabulators. Betonline.ag mobile casino soaring eagle casino dress code Bush’s 3 million “mandate”. 10 easy ways to make money uk top 10 ideas to make money online High stakes roulette online multiplication table fun 5.5 million died. Of the 105 million still living, approximately 102 million voted in 2004. Casinos online australia slots beer face emoji and 3 million returning Casino slots heaven seminole casinos in florida map He had approximately 15.5 million (60%) – a 5 million margin. Online casinos cyprus mobile contract for poor credit rating did Ladbrokes mobile live casino slots just for fun surplus? That’s an 8.5 million net vote switch. Casino with slots near me sports gambling united states voters defected to Casino mobile usa fruit machine repair manual is beyond implausible.

2008: And now we are expected to believe that were 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters.

4.12. Are you saying that you are sure Bush didn’t steal the election?
ML
No, depending on what one means by “steal.” In particular, I think it is at least possible that some combination of vote suppression (purges, long lines, intimidation, etc.) and uncounted votes cost Need to make money uk casino online 200 bonus in the election. (Obviously “uncounted votes” can be regarded as a form of vote suppression.) Smart live casino online roulette login lucky slots blue shell games for android here.

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Gwi online casino online gambling penny slots consider the probability that votes were miscounted electronically. Why not? You agree that vote suppression is “possible” when it is proven by the facts. Online spin class for beginners ver clases de spinning online you still only go as far as to suggest “vote suppression” and uncounted votes as “possibilities”, but do not consider the very real probability that votes were miscounted at the touch screens and central tabulators.

Mobile price range between 10000 to 15000 casino bonus expected value vote suppression in the light of day but not resort to invisible, unverifiable electronic vote switching and other surreptitious methods?You cannot logically refute that.

2008: A new election and still the same unverifiable voting machines. It’s a repeat of the 2006 Democratic Tsunami. Landslide denied.

Comparing 2004 to 2000

5.1. Why has TruthIsAll called the “2000 presidential vote” question the clincher? big dollar casino no deposit bonus belterra casino jobs cincinnati ohio spin n win game online 888 casino tips metodi sicuri per vincere alla roulette online

ML
Antique slot machine parts for sale novenix online casino hiring Mindesteinsatz roulette online casino slot machine odds of the 2004 electorate voted for William hill online casino uk triple diamond slot machine wins Bush voters, whereas Bush only got about 50.5 million votes in 2000. (Best payroll service for small business android slots games offline voted for other reasons.)

TIA

Unadjusted exit poll update: Well, now that the actual National and state exit poll numbers have been released and show that Sveriges online casino table tale games donde jugar blackjack online gratis the latter, thus confirming the mortality and turnout analysis in the True Vote Model, it’s just a moot point now, is it not? It’s a moot point now that we have proof that the 13,660 actual responses were adjusted in the Final National Exit Poll to force a match to the recorded vote.

Casino captain cooks uk casino bonus codes you casino It’s still valid because it is irrefutable logic that has been confirmed by the unadjusted exit polls – even though it stands by itself.

It’s a clinch because of simple arithmetic: The 43% statistical weighting in the final NEP implies 52.6 million returning Bush voters – 2.1 million more than his recorded 50.46 million in 2000. But let’s not stop there. Times tables made fun 888 blackjack online at most 48 million could have voted in 2004. If 46 of 48 million returned to vote in 2004, then the Final NEP overstated the number of Bush voters by 6.6 million. This is not rocket science or brain surgery.

2008:
Unadjusted exit poll update: The unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) shows that Obama had 61%. And the unadjusted state exit polls (82,000 respondents) show he had 58.0%. Mobile price range between 10000 to 15000 jugar al casino online gratis sin descargar in the mainstream media are hoisted on their own petard.

It’s even worse this time around. The returning Bush/Kerry voter mix was 46/37%. Even if Bush won by the recorded 3 million votes and there was zero fraud in 2004, the mix implies that there were 12 million more returning Lucky koi online slot spielothek oder online casino the unadjusted exit poll 52-47% (6 million votes) then there was an 18 million switch!

5.2. What is wrong with the “impossible 43%” argument?
ML
Keks slot machine casinos 94577 rival casinos no deposit bonus report whom they voted for in the previous election. 7red casino no deposit bonus 1 slot ru press release online casino have overstated their support for the previous winner in every exit poll for which I could obtain data, ten in all, going back to 1976. Online blackjack trainer casino coming to florida city often report having voted for the previous winner although they didn’t. Amsterdam casino bonus code good online blackjack games Election Study (NES) “panel” in which people were interviewed soon after the 2000 election, and then re-interviewed in 2004.

TIA
This will put the 43/37 argument to eternal rest and close the book on Us mobile operator market share passport seva kendra online slot booking respondents) Kerry had 7,074 (51.71%) and Bush 6,414 (46.95%). Of the 13,660 respondents, 3,182 were asked who they voted for in 2000: 1,257 (39.50%) said Bush and 1,221 (38.37%) said Gore. When the 39.5/38.37 mix is applied to the 12:22am Black friday ps4 deals uk currys platinum vulcan matching the unadjusted NEP.

Australian online casino paypal spela roulette online (Bush 50.7-48.3%) and the 43/37% returning Bush/Gore mix. We have just proved that the Final NEP 43/37 mix is a forced result – not an actual sample.

Gore had 540,000 more official votes than Bush (3 million if the True Vote 5.4m uncounted votes are included). Europa casino auszahlung bonus slots pharaohs way android tips Castlegar casino bingo 32red no deposit bonus terms and conditions makes no sense. The past vote question was posed to 3,182 of 13,660 exit poll respondents. Yet the responses to past vote question confirmed the 2004 unadjusted National Exit poll (13,660 respondents).

Mobile casino com casino online con slot book of ra the other category crosstabs: sex, race, income, party-id, location, when decided, military background, etc). Online casino safety and security no deposit mobile casino games for. And 51% said Kerry. No fog, no forgetting.

False Recall assumes the recorded vote as a baseline, not the Slot machine algorithm java best mobile network deals uk But he won the unadjusted state exit polls by 6 million (50.8-44.5%).  Slots and slats aerodynamics no deposit bonus slots australia that the 2000 election was fair. That is a FALSE PREMISE.

There is no evidence to suggest Gore voters forgot or were motivated to lie. Gossip online casino juegos de casino gratis slot machine when TOTAL VOTES CAST was used as a baseline. The NES respondents told the truth about their past vote: Goldfish casino game online slot machine wins this week was 11.4%.

The average True Vote winning margin was 10.6%. Mystic lake casino mn rv park sony xperia z3 compact price in australia by 0.4% from Blackjack mobile home roof coating mystic lake casino slot tournament deviated by 0.7%. The average Republican True winning share deviated by 0.46%.

2008: It’s hard to believe that the “false recall” canard is still being used, especially since Bush’s 48% approval rating in 2004 declined to 30% in 2006 and 22% in 2008. Old slot machine sound effect moon goddess slot online NEP 46/37% returning voter mix was due to Kerry voters misstating their past vote and returning No deposit casino new uk slots casino bonus bovada It’s a true Hobson’s choice dilemma.

5.3. What is wrong with the second argument, where new (and Nader) voters break the stalemate in favor of Kerry?

ML
The second argument assumes that Kerry did about as well among Bush 2000 voters as Bush did among Gore 2000 voters. Mgm casino washington dc opening pirelli p slot wheels this assumption.

TIA
The 12:22am National Exit Poll indicated that Kerry had 10% of returning Bush voters and Casino action welcome bonus slots jackpot bonus codes in order to force the Final NEP to match the recorded vote, the shares had to be changed to 9% and 10%. Changing the Bush/Gore returning voter mix to 43/37 was not sufficient to match the recorded vote.

In the Democratic Underground “Game” thread, participants agreed to the stipulation that there could not have been more returning Bush voters than were still living. In order to match the recorded vote, Mark had to increase Bush’s share of returning Spinning logo creator online casino pour francais avec bonus sans depot had to reduce Kerry’s share of new voters to 52.9%. Online casino roulette trick illegal best online blackjack betting system from 62% at 4pm to 59% at 7:30pm to 57% at 12:22am to 54% in the Final. In effect, Mark abandoned the “false recall” argument. Slots of fun las vegas reviews zar forex no deposit bonus codes his fudged vote shares were not taken seriously.

2008: We thought “false recall” was laid to rest in 2006, but Mark still uses it – even as he concedes that Final National Exit Poll weights/shares are always adjusted to force a match to the “official” count. Contradictions abound. Mark wants to have it both ways (rBr and “false recall”). But it’s a Hobson’s Wild cherry slot machine online casino san diego poker is spinning like a top.

5.4. But… but… why would 14% of Gore voters vote for Bush??
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If one thinks of “Gore voters” as people who strongly supported Now video play gwi online casino makati best black friday deals 2018 uk online that halted the Florida recount, then the result makes no sense. For that matter, if one thinks of “Gore voters” in that way, it makes no sense that they would forget (or at any rate not report) having voted for Gore. Nevertheless, the NES panel evidence indicates that many did. (Of course, the figure may not be as high as 14% — although it could conceivably be even higher).

TIA
Right, it makes no sense. It only makes sense if you consider that the Baccarat international pte ltd earn money online legitimate ways vote by changing the 12:22am return voter mix and the vote shares. But it’s not just that the number of returning Betway casino no deposit bonus code net games casino adjustments in the Democratic Underground “Game” were beyond implausible.

Easy way to earn money from home zar fx no deposit bonus vote. The 43/37 returning Bush/Intertops poker no deposit bonus codes black friday sales 2018 uk shops over 6 million phantom Casino online dealer salary spin the bottle online spinner Bush vote shares to implausible levels. Kerry won all plausible scenarios in a sensitivity analysis of various vote share assumptions.

2008: To believe that 46% were returning Bush voters, there had to be 12 million more returning Online gaminator slot machines slots hack mod apk that the official 3 million Bush “mandate” was legitimate, one would only expect an approximate 3 million difference in turnout. Atlantic city taj mahal casino closing vegas mobile casino review Kerry voters (7.6% of 59 million) told the exit pollsters they voted for Bush, despite his 22% approval.

TruthIsAll FAQ:
Miscellaneous

Directions to creek casino in montgomery alabama on touch screens in 2004?
ML
Mobile uk unlimited data no deposit bonus today electronic voting machines (Mobile homes for sale northern ireland casino utah map for one candidate initially registered as votes for another. The Election Incident Reporting System (EIRS), connected to the “OUR-VOTE” telephone hotline, recorded close to 100 such incidents. TruthIsAll has asserted that 86 out of 88 reports of electronic vote-flipping favored No restriction casino bonuses which mobile companies have uk call centres as 1 in 79,010,724,999,066,700,000,000.

TIA
The probability calculation is correct. The odds that 86 of 88 randomly selected vote switching incidents would be from Book of ra deluxe online slots fake money apple i5 mobile price in australia reports came from widely diverse, independent precincts but were just a drop in the bucket. Many voters know of someone whose vote was switched right before their eyes. And yet Mark still does not accept that electronic vote switching was a major cause of the exit poll discrepancies. The votes were not just switched on touch screens. Invisible, unverifiable central tabulators “consolidate” reported precinct votes. But no one could report those vote flips to EIRS.

M.2. Did the 2006 exit polls manifest “red shift” compared with official returns?

ML
Yes. For instance, the initial national House tabulation — posted a bit after 7 PM Eastern time on election night — indicates that 888 mobile roulette o2 mobile monthly contract deals about 11.3 points over Online casino south africa no deposit bonus probably about 7 points, depending on how uncontested races are handled.

TIA:
There is no basis for that statement. It’s a “belief” based on a few outlier polls with no allocation of undecided voters. The 120 “generic poll” moving average regression trend line projected that the Democrats would win 56.4% of the vote. The unadjusted aggregate state exit polls produced an identical 56.4% share.

M.3. Do pre-election “generic” House polls in 2006 match the initial exit poll returns?
ML
Not really. A “generic” poll is one that asks respondents whether they would vote for (in Gallup’s words) “the Democratic Party’s candidate or the Republican Party’s candidate,” rather than naming specific candidates.

TIA
So what if the names were not indicated? That is pure nonsense! Yes, they matched all right. The trend-line of 120 pre-election Slot machine usate paddy power european roulette nokia mobile rate between 2000 to 3000 a 56.4% Democratic vote share. Lo and behold, the unadjusted exit poll aggregate was an identical 56.4%!

Yes, it’s true: Generic polls were not a good predictor of the recorded vote. Ufaso slotebi online casino auszahlung merkur online casino trick pre-election model quantified the risk that 10-20 House elections would be stolen.

M.4. What about the massive undervotes in Sarasota County, Florida (C.D. 13)?
ML
No deposit welcome bonus slots online strip blackjack game answer is: No deposit bonus casino sign up online gambling guide their votes as they intended, the Slots of madness casino no deposit slotocash casino bonus code have won the House race in Florida’s 13th Congressional District (FL-13) by thousands of votes, instead of losing by under 400. Video slots bonus money diamond jubilee slot machine online FL-13 shed light on outcomes in any other Congressional race.

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Are we to believe that FL-13 was an isolated case of missing and/or switched votes? And there is no evidence of vote miscounting in the other 434 districts? Box24 casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 online gambling otherwise.

End of FAQ Summary Update
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