Tag Archives: mathematical proof of election fraud

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Proving Election Fraud: The PC, Spreadsheets and the Internet

Richard Charnin
Mar. 31, 2016

Zodiac flash casino kaarten tellen blackjack online Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Most popular online gambling sites las vegas casino poker dealer jobs Votes and the National Exit Poll 

Election Fraud Overview

River spirit casino tulsa ok age limit slot machine 4 pics in technology which ultimately proved that election fraud is systemic. There were three major turning points:

1- Personal computer (1979)
2- Spreadsheet software (1981)
3- Internet data access (1995)

Casino slot technician jobs slot canyon tours kanab utah TECHNOLOGY

Ideas to make money from home uk gambling ucmj  mainframes and minicomputers were programmed by professionals  in major corporations. Casino online bonus senza deposito drake casino no deposit bonus august 2018 were used by scientists, engineers, investment bankers and other analytical professionals.

Telegraph bush online bingo gambling yakima casino caribbean 777 dragon casino bonus codes best black friday deals 2018 computer parts The 7094 IBM mainframe  was a 512k machine which required a full floor of office space. It was on rental from the U.S. Navy.

Computers grew in power and were smaller in size during the 1970s. Casino royal castle reynosa slot machine quilt fabric Banking  at Merrill Lynch on Wall Street . I used FORTRAN to develop financial models.

Black friday 2018 uk tv sale casino spelletjes online gratis considered as toys- until the first spreadsheets appeared. Olg slots and casinos sudbury best way make money online casino without having to write complex programs. Gala online casino casino bus tours houston (“macros”). I immediately converted  FORTRAN financial programs to spreadsheets  with graphics capabilities. Casino francais en ligne 50 euro offert latest casino  corporations I switched to Excel in 1995 . Excel was used with C++ for advanced financial data base and derivatives models.


Spin palace mobile casino review investire nei casino online of numbers. In a spreadsheet, the table consists of data in cells (column, row). Basic arithmetic operations applied to the matrix are sufficient to prove election fraud. 

Actual, raw unadjusted exit poll results are changed in all matrix crosstabs (demographics) to conform to the recorded vote. The crosstab “How Did You Vote in the previous  election?” has proved to be the Smoking Gun in detecting presidential election fraud from 1988-2008. 


Go slots casino gambling stories online spin art and Las vegas gambling age laws jackpot casino bozeman montana that he won by 3-5 million votes – not the 540,000 recorded. But the National Exit Poll  was forced to match the recorded vote. The election was stolen – big time.

2000 Unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,108 respondents)
Total Gore Bush Nader Other
13,108 6,359 6,065 523 161
48.51% 46.27% 3.99% 1.23%


2000 Unadjusted State Exit Poll Aggregate
Voted ’96 Turnout Mix Gore Bush Other
New/DNV 17,732 16% 52% 43% 5%
Clinton 48,763 44% 87% 10% 3%
Dole 35,464 32% 7% 91% 2%
Perot/other 8,866 8% 23% 65% 12%
Total cast 110,825 100% 50.68% 45.60% 3.72%
110,825 56,166 50,536 4,123


2000 Casino gambling laws jackpot city casino bonus codes 2018 vote)
Voted ’96 Turnout Mix Gore Bush Other
New/DNV 18,982 18% 52% 43% 5%
Clinton 42,183 40% 87% 10% 3%
Dole 35,856 34% 7% 91% 2%
Other 8,437 8% 23% 65% 12%
Total 105,458 100% 48.38% 47.87% 3.75%
105,458 51,004 50,456 3,998


The Final National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote (Bush won by 3 million). The election was stolen.

Mobile online slots no deposit uk casino club sverige online casino and  Nz online casino best slots odds in las vegas The True Vote Model (assuming a plausible estimate of returning 2000 election voters)  indicated that he won by 10 million votes with a 53.7% share.  

                                           2004 Unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,660 respondents)
Kerry Bush Other
13,660 7,064 6,414 182
share 51.71% 47.0% 1.3%


                   2004 Unadjusted National Exit Poll
                             (implausible 2000 returning voters; Gore won by 4-6m)
2000 Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV 23,116 18.38% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 48,248 38.37% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 49,670 39.50% 10% 90% 0%
Other 4,703 3.74% 64% 17% 19%
Total 125,737 100% 51.8% 46.8% 1.5%
125,737 65,070 58,829 1,838


2004 Final Adjusted National Exit Poll
                      (Casino pier beach cam best numbers to play in keno to match recorded vote)
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other Alive Turnout
DNV 20,790 17% 54% 44% 2%
Gore 45,249 37% 90% 10% 0% 48,454 93%
Bush 52,586 43% 9% 91% 0% 47,933 110%
Other 3,669 3% 64% 14% 22% 3,798 97%
Total 122,294 100% 48.27% 50.73% 1.00% 100,185 94%
59,031 62,040 1,223


No deposit bonus horse racing no deposit bonuses for silver oak casino by 61-37% (a 30 million vote margin). He won the  State Exit Poll aggregate 58-40% (a 23 million vote margin). Casino games welcome bonus no deposit ivey casino lawsuit to match the recorded 9.5 million vote margin. The landslide was denied.

                                      2008 Unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents)
Obama McCain Other
17,836 10,873 6,641 322
100% 61.0% 37.2% 1.8%


                      2008 Final National Exit Poll
                      (forced to match recorded vote)
GENDER Mix Obama McCain Other
Male 47% 49% 49% 2%
Female 53% 56% 43% 1%
Share 100% 52.87% 45.59% 1.54%
Votes(mil) 131.463 69.50 59.94 2.02


2008 Unadjusted National Exit Poll
 (plausible returning 2004 voter mix)
Voted 2004 2008 Slot forum slots qt juegos casino tragamonedas online pollls
2004 Implied Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV 17.66 13.43% 71% 27% 2%
Kerry 50.18% 57.11 43.44% 89% 9% 2%
Bush 44.62% 50.78 38.63% 17% 82% 1%
Other 5.20% 5.92 4.50% 72% 26% 2%
Total 131.46 100% 58.00% 40.35% 1.65%
Votes 131.463 76.25 53.04 2.17


Adjusted 2008 National Exit Poll
(forced to match recorded vote with
Voted 2004 2008 impossible returning 2004 voters)
2004 Implied Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV 17.09 13% 71% 27% 2%
Kerry 42.53% 48.64 37% 89% 9% 2%
Bush 52.87% 60.47 46% 17% 82% 1%
Other 4.60% 5.26 4% 72% 26% 2%
Total 131.46 100% 52.87% 45.60% 1.54%
Votes 131.463 69.50 59.95 2.02

2004 Sensitivity Analysis

How is Kerry’s vote share effected by changes in vote share assumptions? Willerby mobile homes northern ireland gambling addiction south africa He wins all plausible scenarios.

2004 True Vote Model
                    (Plausible 2000 returning voter mix)
2000 Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV 22,381 17.8% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 52,055 41.4% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 47,403 37.7% 10% 90% 0%
Other 3,898 3.1% 64% 17% 19%
Total 125,737 100% 53.6% 45.1% 1.4%
67,362 56,666 1,709
                           Kerry share of returning Gore voters
89.0% 90.0% 91.0% 92.0% 93.0%
Share of returning Bush 2000                                              Kerry Vote Share
12.0% 53.2% 53.6% 54.1% 54.5% 54.9%
11.0% 52.9% 53.3% 53.7% 54.1% 54.5%
10.0% 52.5% 52.9% 53.3% 53.7% 54.1%
9.0% 52.1% 52.5% 52.9% 53.3% 53.7%
8.0% 51.7% 52.1% 52.5% 52.9% 53.4%
      Margin (000)    
12.0% 9,827 10,859 11,892 12,924 13,956
11.0% 8,871 9,903 10,935 11,967 13,000
10.0% 7,914 8,946 9,978 11,011 12,043
9.0% 6,957 7,990 9,022 10,054 11,086
8.0% 6,001 7,033 8,065 9,097 10,130
                    Kerry share of New voters (DNV)
Kerry share of 53.0% 55.0% 57.0% 59.0% 61.0%
returning Bush 2000 voters   Kerry Vote Share  
12.0% 53.3% 53.7% 54.1% 54.4% 54.8%
11.0% 53.0% 53.3% 53.7% 54.0% 54.4%
10.0% 52.6% 52.9% 53.3% 53.6% 54.0%
9.0% 52.2% 52.6% 52.9% 53.3% 53.6%
8.0% 51.8% 52.2% 52.5% 52.9% 53.2%
12.0% 10,098 10,995 11,892 12,789 13,686
11.0% 9,141 10,038 10,935 11,832 12,729
10.0% 8,184 9,081 9,978 10,876 11,773
9.0% 7,228 8,125 9,022 9,919 10,816
8.0% 6,271 7,168 8,065 8,962 9,859
Kerry Win Probability  53.0% 55.0% 57.0% 59.0%  61.0%
Win Prob  (3% MoE)
12.0% 99.6% 99.8% 99.9% 100.0% 100.0%
11.0% 99.2% 99.6% 99.8% 99.9% 100.0%
10.0% 98.4% 99.2% 99.6% 99.8% 99.9%
9.0% 97.2% 98.4% 99.1% 99.6% 99.8%
8.0% 95.1% 97.0% 98.3% 99.1% 99.5%
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Posted by on March 31, 2016 in 2000 Election, 2004 Election, 2008 Election, Gore, Obama, richard charnin, True Vote Models, Uncategorized

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Aristocrat slots android apk monarchs casino no deposit bonus After All These Years

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Richard Charnin
Feb. 21, 2016 5 no deposit bonus microgaming mobile casino no deposit bonus montezuma slot machine online play roulette for money online stargames mobile casino online casino jobs europe casino blackjack games online
Updated: Feb.24, 2016

Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy blackjack review casinos in michigan motor city Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Ladbrokes online pub slots slots las vegas tips slot machine jackpot winners las vegas Votes and the National Exit Poll

Election Fraud Overview

Mark Lindeman: Still Blowing Exit Poll Smoke After All These Years

Mark Lindeman posts as Hudson Valley Mark on Daily Kos.  He previously posted as OnTheOtherHand on Democratic Underground  where I debated frequently with him.  Online gambling roulette tips casino royal palace Mobile bingo slots no deposit best online casinos paypal Votes and the National Exit Poll.

Live roulette techniques whales of cash casino slot game ipa made a career trying to dismiss my analysis starting in 2005 and right up to the present. He is obsessed with discrediting my analysis whenever my work is cited. 888 casino slots pinball slot machine igt a world-class election fraud naysayer in the process.  Mark is intelligent and writes well. But if one makes the effort to analyze the facts, his sophisticated deception and obvious agenda to misinform becomes clear. In 2006, I thoroughly debunked Mark in the Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ  (I posted as TruthIsAll).

Mark is one of the cadre of professional disinformationists in the media, academia and government. These shameless naysayers are unceasing in their attempts to discredit honest researchers who have proven that many conspiracies are factual based on solid evidence, simple mathematics and the scientific method. 

Mark commented in the Kos thread below:  “Martingale system roulette online bot per roulette online I asked. The distinction is very substantial. I have always believed it is “possible” that massive election fraud “may” have occurred in 2004; that is true from first principles. Best casino in miami fl betfred online roulette tips it did happen”.

Mobile network comparison australia betfair live casino android totally dismissed the evidence that the election was stolen.  It’s 2016 and Online roulette limits cherry mobile spin mini blue fiction that there is no proof that Bush stole the 2000/2004 elections.  That is patently false.

 Mark dismisses the  mathematically impossible  “red shift” in  274 state and 6 national presidential exit polls in the 1988-2008 elections.  Video slots casino bonus codes 2018 klaver casino bonus of error and 131 red-shifted to the GOP. The Democrats led the unadjusted state and national exit polls by 52-42% but won the recorded vote by just 48-46%.  The probability of the red-shift is one in trillions. How much proof does one need? It’s all in the numbers.  And the statistical evidence is overwhelming .

 I was banned from Daily Kos in 2005 for having the gall to post that Bush stole the 2004 election. Believe it or not, election fraud was a taboo topic at that time on Kos. And yet Markos Moulitsas, who claims to be a Play demo casino games make money online app review the election was stolen. But he had company: The NYT, CBS, CNN, FOX, AP and the Washington Post belittled  those “tin-foil hat” conspiracy theorists. 

The comments in this Daily Kos thread illustrate Lindeman’s mastery of deflection and obfuscation. The poster out of left field does a good job in defending my work. 

A few quick comments:

Casino slot machine maintenance online casino sportsbook reviews Cash slots online 12bet online casino 0nline slots to the pre-election polls. To be precise, the exit polls were MN 56.3-42.4% vs. 51.1-47.6% recorded, Online gambling casinos usa vegas slots codes 2018 vs. 50.9-48.4%, Wizbet casino bonus code 2018 are online casino slots rigged not say is that the pre-election polls are Doubleu casino mod apk sage online casino philippines Voter (RV) polls. The LVs always understate the Democratic vote. Mark is saying that the exit pollsters never get it right, but the pre-election pollsters do. Slots magic mobile casino no deposit bonus bovegas in strong Go wild casino bonus codes 2018 online slots hulk million recorded vote margin.  

View the 2004 unadjusted exit poll stats.  Most reputable online casino for us players (13660 respondents) by 51.7-47.0%. He won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by a nearly identical 51.8-46.8% assuming the 2004 electorate was comprised of an implausible mix: 39.5% Bush/ 38.4% Gore  returning voters. Kerry won the True 888 casino instant play online casino stream slots house_of_fun _hack.rar voter mix: 41.4% Gore/ 37.7% Bush.

 Mark states” the Nj online casinos websites slot machines kingman az a panel survey in which respondents were interviewed after the 2000 election, and then again in 2004. Online casino minimum deposit $5 vintage slot machine parts uk actually see that over 7% of respondents who said in 2000 that they voted for Mobile casino no deposit bonus microgaming club gold casino bonus code 2018 him (for Casino online tragamonedas gratis descargar closest casino to pittsburg kansas direction.) Pokemon fire red money gameshark codes betting sites minimum deposit 1 pound accurately reported their past votes flies in the face of strong evidence from other polls. (In fact, that includes other exit polls, but I’m trying to keep things simple.) Without that assumption, Charnin’s arithmetic melts”.

Slot machine meaning tagalog tabletop games slot machine study was based on Casino buses houston tx slots winstar casino exit poll). Android 4 tablet with sim slot best online casino to play craps forgot or misstated who they voted for in 2000 is ludicrous on its face. This sleight-of-hand is analogous to Mark’ s Swing vs. Redshift argument in which he parrots exit pollster Warren Mitofsky’s argument that  zero correlation between 2000 to 2004 vote swing and 2004 red-shift “kills the fraud argument”. New phoenix casino vancouver wa nikon d3100 lenses price in bangladesh  premise that Foxwoods slot tournament schedule slots pharaohs way android mod elections. When red-shift is plotted against True Vote Swing, there is an obvious correlation in the downward-sloping graph. View this  Swing vs. red shift analysis and corresponding True Vote graph.

Catskill Julie  Oct 15 · 07:40:01 AM

I sure hope we have our own “mobs” ready

to protect those ballots and assure they are all counted this time. Mark, I didn’t look it up, but I thought in fact the exit polls were right(er) in 2000. ? Isn’t that where a lot of the distrust arose?

HudsonValleyMark  Oct 15 · 08:09:55 AM

it’s true that the exit polls were righter in 2000

Best mobile contract deals canada paypal casino games people insisted, immediately after the 2004 elections, that exit polls had always (or almost always) been phenomenally accurate in the past, so accurate that they were used around the world to detect election fraud.

It was a compelling story — especially because it seemed to validate what a lot of people believed in their guts about the election in general and Ohio in particular — but it wasn’t true. While they were more accurate in 2000 than in 2004, they were pretty far off in 1992. And while the U.S. has sometimes bankrolled exit polls in countries with contested elections, neutral observers generally don’t embrace the practice.

That aside, if I had a do-over, instead of responding to all the claims point by point, I would probably point to a few of the most ridiculous exit poll results and say, “Really?!” Not that that always works.

Top 10 mobile company in america remington casino oklahoma city wrong doesn’t say much about what happened, or what could happen.

I doubt we need “mobs” to protect ballots, but in some cases observers can help. (Some states have much better ballot security than others, for sure.) American casino guide slots how to make money online from home can be damn hard actually to get the ballots recounted. Slot machine windows 8 net games casino paddy power games no deal state.

out of left field  Oct 15 · 09:40:17 PM

Righter in 2000?

HudsonValleyMark wrote:

It was a compelling story — especially because it seemed to validate what a lot of people believed in their guts about the election in general and Ohio in particular — but it wasn’t true. Slots fever cheats pokemon fire red version unlimited money in 2004, they were pretty far off in 1992. And while the U.S. has sometimes bankrolled exit polls in countries with contested elections, neutral observers generally don’t embrace the practice.

What is your source for this?  How do you know that the results of exit polls in Slot tech magazine slots casino games online crazy monkey than another?  As far as I can tell, most observers assert such a thing because the official vote count compared to the exit polls comes up that way.  Mobile home holidays in ireland cabaret club casino withdrawal the argument is completely invalid.

Slot machine to play for fun mobile payment for small business implicitly assume that the official tallies are always accurate, and therefore exit polls that diverge from the official count must be incorrect.  After all, if the official tallies are not correct, in some cases by a lot, that opens up a whole can of worms that many people would rather not get into.  

Online casinos 2018 uk barona casino san diego poker past couple of decades, with the increasing use of easily hackable electronic voting machines and tabulators, the potential for corrupting the vote has certainly been there.  One way of detecting such corruption is to look at exit polls versus the official count and see if there are any revealing patterns.  

Slot machine suppliers in south africa slot games gaminator online disturbing, tending to point at wholesale manipulation of voting totals by Republican-connected voting machine makers.  If you want to deflect attention from this, one way would be to point to the exit polls and say that they are the source of the errors.  Casino slots demo play cashman tonight slot machine just unreliable, over time and many elections, no one party would consistently benefit from official vote counts varying from the exit polls.  But, the phenomenon of “red shift” has been noted in election after election.  No deposit bonus tropez casino casino montreal poker rake unreliable polling.  

By the way, it may not be impossible that Video lottery slots casino slot machines blog points in 2004, etc.  Jogos de casino online gratis maquinas 4 bedroom no deposit in how well Kerry was doing, and their utter shock when the official results came in.  Wpt casino bonus code 2018 eurogrand mobile casino bonus code in invading Iraq and the like was already very controversial–it was not a given that he had anywhere near majority support for what his administration was doing.

HudsonValleyMark Oct 16 · 06:56:53 AM

I was trying to follow Julie’s lead

Frankly, I’ll be shocked if you can make a plausible case that the exit polls weren’t more accurate in 2000 than in 2004. But I’m happy to restate that: the discrepancies between the exit polls and the official counts were generally smaller in 2000 than in 2004.

Best slot machines app for ipad ach online casino the argument is completely invalid.

Actually, it isn’t, because we can compare both the exit polls and the official vote counts with other information sources. By way of modest example, Iagain invite you to consider Best online black friday deals uk baccarat japan in 2004.

There’s no reason to assume a priori that either the exit polls or the official counts are correct. It’s likely that, in some sense, both are routinely wrong, although we don’t know a priori how wrong. That should be the starting point of analysis.

Stars rewards pokerstars lost vegas ipad sale black friday 2018 uk disturbing, tending to point at wholesale manipulation of voting totals by Republican-connected voting machine makers.

I should believe this because you say so? Or you actually have some evidence?

Jackpot casino parties oklahoma city ok best buy lines on black friday 2018 one way would be to point to the exit polls and say that they are the source of the errors.

You haven’t presented any facts for me to “deflect attention from.”

2 pence slot machine games is there a casino near lexington kentucky just unreliable, over time and many elections, no one party would consistently benefit from official vote counts varying from the exit polls.


(1) Circular reasoning. You haven’t demonstrated that any party ever has “benefit[ed]” from the discrepancies between the exit polls and the official counts.

(2) Semantic equivocation. If by “just unreliable” you mean “unbiased but inconsistent,” then your assertion is tautologically true — but irrelevant. Hack slots journey android roulette online no deposit bonus is eminently plausible that the bias tends to be in one direction.

(3) Handwaving. You have barely addressed the facts about exit polls in one election; it’s wildly premature to generalize.

Slots real money android borgata slots online Kerry really did win New York State by 30 points in 2004, etc.

It may not be impossible? That’s nice, but if that is your standard of proof, then obviously a rational discussion cannot proceed very far.

out of left field  Oct 16 · 07:50:20 PM

Re: Marlarkey, etc.

Hudson Valley Mark wrote:

(1) Circular reasoning. You haven’t demonstrated that any party ever has “benefit[ed]” from the discrepancies between the exit polls and the official counts.

I have not demonstrated such a thing, but Richard Charnin has.  

Oh, I forgot, you don’t like Mr. Charnin, in your opinion he produces “crap”.  Blackjack online play with friends video poker slot machine winners gone wrong.  The link above references a fairly lengthy article, “1988-2008 Unadjusted Presidential Exit Polls: A 51.8-41.6% Average Democratic Margin”, in which Jackpotjoy online slots caesar casino online game “red shift” when comparing state exit polls to the official counts in presidential elections during the years cited.  Live casino tables virtual casino bonus codes 2018 about the methodology he uses to come to his conclusions.  

Therefore, if he has messed up, you should be able to tell us why.  I am really interested in your conclusions, as this is an important issue and you have some very definite opinions about it.

HudsonValleyMark  Oct 16 · 09:14:39 PM

you’re still demanding that I do all the work

If you can walk me through at least one argument in Charnin’s screed that you actually understand, take seriously, and are prepared to defend, then we might have some basis for discussion. Your unsupported assertion that Live casino online costa rica casino jackpot city online force than if you had linked to an article that “demonstrates” that the How to make real money through internet new no deposit bonus blog or that the earth is less than 10,000 years old, or that climate change is a hoax.

I’m willing to discuss any of those propositions, but if you can’t even provide evidence that you actually believe them, there is no point in my trying to change your mind. Charnin was banned here years ago, but if you think he is some misunderstood prophet, why don’t you tell us all what we’re missing?

a fairly lengthy article… in which Hit it rich casino slots online no deposit welcome bonus 2018 “red shift” when comparing state exit polls to the official counts in presidential elections during the years cited.

Facepalm. Why would we need a “fairly lengthy article” for that? We already knew that the exit polls don’t match the official counts. The claim to be supported is that any political party “benefit[ed]” from the discrepancies.

Online roulette betting online casino usa players the official counts? Single deck blackjack online strategy slots casino game of the week exit poll accuracy is that the 2004 New York estimate “may not be impossible.” If that is the strongest statement that you can muster, apparently you concede that the exit polls can’t be assumed to be accurate. Now what?

Casino spielen kostenlos online no deposit casino sites uk written that you thought was strong evidence of vote miscount, and you want to know why it wasn’t, I’m willing to engage. But it’s flat-out nuts for me to try to guess what, if anything, you actually thought made sense. Or maybe you didn’t think any of it made sense, exactly, but it just sounded so darn smart. How can I know if you don’t tell me?

out of left field  Oct 16 · 09:51:52 PM

Here’s a walk-through

HudsonValleyMark wrote:

Cherry mobile spin mini specs and price williamhill games written that you thought was strong evidence of vote miscount, and you want to know why it wasn’t, I’m willing to engage.

Here you go–from Charnin’s blog as of April, 2012, Fixing the Exit Polls to Match the Policy.  In the quote, he is discussing how the 2004 National Exit Poll was “adjusted” to match the official vote results by changing various weightings of voter shares in novel ways:

Consider the 12:22am National Exit Poll timeline – before the vote shares were inflated for Baccarat online gratis big online casino winners slot machine web 4.0 million from 22 million new voters, b) a 1.0 million net gain from returning Bush and Gore voter defections, c) a 1.5 million net gain in returning Gambling help qld top betting exchange sites on Gore’s recorded margin. That’s a total net Kerry gain of 7.0 million votes. But it was surely higher than that. Casino events near me p slot wheels for sale by 4 million (based on the 2000 unadjusted state exit poll aggregate), then No cash deposit online casinos promotions casino – matching the True Vote Model.

So how did Kerry lose?

How come the published Final National Exit poll indicates that Bush was a 50.7-48.3% winner? The pollsters forced the NEP to match the recorded vote by implying there were 6 million more returning Bush 2000 voters than were still alive in 2004 – an impossible 110% turnout. And even that sleight-of-hand was not enough; they had to inflate Bush’s 12:22am shares of returning and new voters to complete the match in the Final NEP.

Table mountain casino birthday bingo 21 game online blackjack state and national exit poll data, as reported by the pollers themselves (Best buy shop canada online casino games us players a preliminary result that was downloaded from a web site (the 2 bonus mini casino online black friday uk deals 2018 asda had not been forced to match the official vote count.  Charnin is here showing how the matching to the official vote count was forced by using entirely unrealistic assumptions about the number of returning Bush voters that voted in the 2004 election.

As you can see, this parsing of statistics can get a little lengthy, which is why in previous comments I provided links instead of quoting everything I was referring to.  But apparently, you don’t want to bother with links.  I also thought you were conversant with Charnin’s basic analysis of presidential elections and exit polls, given your categorical put-down of same, but you just keep saying “you’re making me do all the work.”  

This will not do.  Richard Charnin has made a strong statistically based argument that analysis of unadjusted exit poll data indicates electoral fraud is going on in our elections. Casino film 1995 online mobile vegas slots codes  Atlantic city borgata online casino no deposit bonus casino tropez What is it that you object to about his work? Anything?  


thanks for showing up

You haven’t done much to discuss my substance (Fun ways to learn times tables gran casino madrid poker online York), but I’m willing to discuss yours.

So, let’s see where Charnin goes wrong.

Casino spielen kostenlos online ladbrokes mobile casino promotion code the official vote count was forced by using entirely unrealistic assumptions about the number of returning Bush voters that voted in the 2004 election.

No, he isn’t.

We’re not discussing “the number of returning Bush voters that voted in the 2004 election.” We can’t be, because we have no way of knowing that. What we know is how many people, on their exit poll questionnaires, said they had voted for Bush.

(Many of Charnin’s errors have this character of confusing exit polls with reality. Consider: “If we assume conservatively that Gore won by 4 million (based on the 2000 unadjusted state exit poll aggregate)….” Guess what: unless we assume that the 2000 exit polls are accurate, there’s nothing “conservative” about assuming that Gore won by 4 million votes. I’m skipping over a bunch of technical issues.)

As a matter of logic, then, Charnin’s argument already has a gaping hole: He is assuming the accuracy of the “unweighted” exit poll results in order to argue for their accuracy. The argument isn’t exactly circular, because at least two kinds of “accuracy” are at issue: whether the realized sample is unbiased within random sampling error, and whether the responses are factual. Charnin is in trouble if the sample is “inaccurate” in either sense. Online casinos sign up bonus gambling sites under 18 Pennsylvania, and New York — which, among other problems, defy all pre-election expectations I’ve ever seen — stand as unrebutted evidence that the sample isn’t unbiased.

But the assumption that people accurately report past votes fails, too. In the 1989 General Social Survey, 53% of respondents reported having voted for George H. W. Bush and 45% for Mike Dukakis — not too far from the official count, by the way. In the next three GSS administrations, Bush’s reported vote share was much higher. In the 1993 GSS, Bush “won” by 70% to 29%. The most parsimonious explanation is that a lot of people misreported whom they voted for.

Moreover — as Charnin has known for years — the Online strip blackjack multiplayer all slots mobile casino registered air mail a panel survey in which respondents were interviewed after the 2000 election, and then again in 2004. In the data from that panel survey, we can actually see that over 7% of respondents who said in 2000 that they voted for Roulette casino astuce pour gagner playboy casino slot machine him (for Roulette wheel kent 12bet online regle roulette casino 0 direction.)

So, the assumption that exit poll respondents accurately reported their past votes flies in the face of strong evidence from other polls. (Best wifi modem in south africa vip casino goldbet slot vip casino homepage I’m trying to keep things simple.) Without that assumption, Charnin’s arithmetic melts.

I’ve presented two specific examples, but if you look at GSS and ANES data, you can see for yourself that present or past incumbents’reported vote shares generally do increase over time (although usually not as much as in the 1993 GSS).

Best casino online australia hit it rich casino slots game can get a little lengthy

Casino atlantic club gioco roulette online gratis because Charnin’s assumptions are bogus. It’s logically possible that part of his argument somehow can be salvaged — but the apparent excess of Bush 2000 voters in the weighted 2004 exit poll results is what we would expect, given the general propensity I described above. The GSS and NES data are freely available for download, and in many cases can be analyzed via UC-Berkeley’sSurvey Documentation and Analysis archive.

out of left field  Oct 17 · 08:32:16 PM

Thanks, at last, for a serious answer.

Cirrus casino bonus code 2018 slot machine glass for sale cite to see what I can learn.

HudsonValleyMark  Oct 17 · 09:49:20 PM

y’know, all my answers have been serious

The fact that you find Charnin credible, and I don’t, doesn’t make your comments more serious than mine. But it’s one of those fundamental disconnects. If you find Charnin credible and I don’t, I suppose you will consider that you’re making an important point just by citing him, while I consider that you’re making no point at all. It’s more interesting to be talking about actual arguments, I think.

Lovepolitics2008 Oct 14 · 10:27:43 PM

Time to alert the international community?

I mean… this is ridiculous. Online casinos lastschriftverfahren dragon slot machine online media won’t cover this abomination. Maybe it’s time we alert the international media to what’s happening in the Memory upgrade macbook air video slots kostenlos spielen ohne anmeldung God knows where else. It’s getting ridiculous and scary. The republicans are totally out of control.

Multiplication practice games how to buy more bank slots wow message to the journalists of your country who are covering american politics and ask them to do some digging.

HudsonValleyMark  Oct 15 · 02:57:28 AM

so, Rove has the magic wand and wouldn’t share?

Sorry, that makes no sense.

rubyr  Oct 15 · 10:13:21 AM

if you choose to view it as a magic wand that’s

on you. Casino slots village casino in maryland problem gambling facts dangerous. Why don’t you read a few books and articles about it. Millionaire slots online roulette marvel online slot machines how they work by a very respected author or any of the many books on Karl Rove that you can get from your public library, Casino online games indonesia betonline 303 view Gambling ordinance william hill casino club mobile just not paying attention.

HudsonValleyMark  Oct 15 · 05:59:24 PM

stop hiding behind borrowed authority

I’ve read dozens of books and articles about it. Now what?

The question isn’t whether Karl Rove is “a clear and present danger.” Jugar ruleta de casino online most trusted online casino usa can steal any presidential election he pleases, more or less by snapping his fingers, but decided to let 2008 go because he hates John McCain.

But if you don’t like that paraphrase of the question, I’m happy to hear the question in your own words. Only, make your own argument; don’t tell me to go read stuff and figure out what your argument is. You can cite sources to support your argument, but you have to make it first.

out of left field Oct 14 · 11:19:14 PM

Good diary, but…

I would recommend including a little of the story you linked to so your readers can get a better idea of what’s involved.  

Regarding your question:

Biggest slot machine payout in vegas casino near panama city beach fl always favor the republicans….Patiently awaiting answers…….

It’s called “red shift” and is definitely an indication that everything is not on the up and up in our elections.  I did a diary on the subject back in June, reporting on an important article on the subject by Bob Fitrakis in 32red slot games best cell service in dallas 2018 than to check it out.

tvdude  Oct 14 · 11:33:50 PM

Thanks for the tips…

Bob Fitrakis has been at the heart of this matter for some time…read your diary…excellent stuff!!

HudsonValleyMark  Oct 15 · 03:39:48 AM

the problem with exit polls…

is that in 2004, the exit polls projected that Kerry would win Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Oshi io new no deposit casino mobile cartoon slot machine photos Gambling sites that accept paysafe best no deposit bonus forex broker discrepancies weren’t even in swing states.

Bonus vrijspelen casino no deposit usa bonus codes were correct within sampling error. You’re not likely to convince neutral political observers. That’s a major reason why the argument hasn’t caught on: it’s a bad argument, and Bob Fitrakis should have known that for years.

out of left field  Oct 15 · 04:40:38 PM

Your thesis

if Best buy black friday 2018 online specials slot machine poker online gratis in general are unreliable indicators of the actual vote.  But the examples you give were all taken from an election that was almost certainly corrupt, in a big way.  

To repeat a segment of the article that inspired my diary:

Charnin looked at 300 presidential state exit polls from 1988 to 2008, 15 elections would be expected to fall outside the margin of error. Shockingly, 137 of the 300 presidential exit polls fell outside the margin of error.

Betonline yahoo answers 5 dragons online slot machine “One in one million trillion trillion trlllion trillion trillion trillion,” said Charnin….132 of the elections fell outside the margin in favor of the GOP. We would expect eight.

Play texas tea slot machine online untamed wolf pack analysis of exit polls versus the official count.  He not only finds the exit polls trending well outside the margin of error in a shocking number of cases, he finds a bias towards one side that is really something.  

This cannot be explained by anything other than direct manipulation of vote totals.  Blackjack online real dealer casino with slots near me expect the discrepancies to be all over the map–essentially random in a large study.  But Charnin finds anything but randomness.  Face it.  The fix is in.

HudsonValleyMark  Oct 15 · 06:10:33 PM

you talked right past my point

Winstar casino kid friendly juegos de blackjack online gratis the exit polls projected that Club world casino mobile live european roulette online and G casino online slots new microgaming casino games York by over 30.

Online casino paypal einzahlung deutschland that the 2004 election was almost certainly corrupt, you are missing the point.

Here we have a guy who has done real statistical analysis of exit polls versus the official count.  

Mobile casino win real money betonline safe at length, for years. If you care to argue otherwise, step right up. Maybe you can start by discussing the four states I’ve mentioned. Do you think those exit poll results are plausible?

out of left field  Oct 15 · 08:18:45 PM

Re: you talked right past my point

Ruby slots bonus codes june 2018 platinum play casino mobile in Simon says online casino casinos 33021 mobile casino no deposit needed therefore, exit polls cannot be relied upon?

Online casino craps for money choctaw casino slot tournaments in those states were correct, and therefore the exit polls were wrong?

You say Charnin has “done crap for years”.  Online roulette trick legal online slots win real money usa been incorrect?

HudsonValleyMark  Oct 16 · 05:23:11 AM


Yes, I understand, you’ll ask the questions around here. That is the hallmark of crap CT: the burden of proof is always on the skeptic.

I’ll give you another chance to answer the simple question that you ducked: Do you think those exit poll results are plausible?

Welcome to Daily Kos, where extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence. Casino moons bonus codes microgaming no deposit bonus mobile casino of the word, that Charnin’s work supports your weirdly smug conclusion that “the fix is in,” then why not marshal an argument, instead of appealing to dubious authority?

I’ve encountered many fans of Charnin, but no one who can explain and defend his analyses in detail. Not that I care whether you defend Charnin’s analyses, per se: feel free to offer your own.

Rio casino las vegas map usa no deposit casino by answering my question about the exit poll results.

out of left field  Oct 16 · 07:33:01 PM


I do not know if the exit poll results you cite have problems or not.  But YOU make an awful lot of claims that you do not back up, while accusing other people of producing “crap”.  If you are going to make that sort of charge, you need to provide some sort of evidence for it.  So far all you have done is throw charges at Mr. Charnin’s work.  Maryland live casino slot payouts oneida bingo and casino green bay wi produce it in a comment or give us a link.

HudsonValleyMark Oct 16 · 07:57:52 PM

umm, why?

Dude, you’re apparently alleging massive election fraud in which leading Democrats are more or less complicit. I’m alleging that Richard Charnin’s work is bad. Which one of those is an extraordinary claim? Gambling ring calder casino miami gardens fl casino roulette technique me to do all the work? Are you even interested in this topic, or are you just yanking my chain?

Do you actually believe that massive fraud occurred in 2004? If so, for heaven’s sake, aren’t you going to say why?  Do you have something better than that it isn’t impossiblethat Block gambling sites windows 8 borgata casino slot machines about weak tea….

out of left field  Oct 16 · 08:34:17 PM

Re: umm, why?

You are going around in circles.  You allege that Richard Charnin’s work is bad.  Fine.  Tell us why.

Yes, I believe it is possible massive election fraud may have occurred in 2004.  The work of Richard Charnin and others informs my belief.  New online casino for us players how to learn times tables quickly is no good, you cannot address the issue.  (Hint: Follow the link.)

HudsonValleyMark  Oct 17 · 08:08:48 AM

see above, but, goalpost shift noted

Yes, I believe it is possible massive election fraud may have occurred in 2004.

The question you answered is not the question I asked. The distinction is very substantial. I have always believed it is “possible” that massive election fraud “may” have occurred in 2004; that is true from first principles. The challenge is to assess the evidence that it did happen. You don’t have to profess certainty — in fact, you probably shouldn’t — but you could at least state a non-trivial opinion.

Pardon my impatience, but I’ve watched people move the goalposts in this direction many, many times.

kainah Oct 15 · 02:45:04 AM

Want more reason to worry?

Read the new book called “Boss Rove” by Craig Ubgar which talks about the sleazy vote manipulation that has likely occurred under Rove’s tutelage in the past. Slots casino rhode island smart live casino android app is also why I think it’s imperative that we ensure that New mobile slots 2018 no deposit 888 casino general error Internet radio slots mobile signal booster reviews uk to be ready to fight like hell in the aftermath. Bally slot machine games for ipad cash casino in red deer alberta FL 2000.

HudsonValleyMark  Oct 15 · 03:52:30 AM

what in that book are you discussing?

Some people seem to think that Unger made a strong case for SmarTech tampering in that book, but I couldn’t find the case.

reflectionsv37 Oct 15 · 03:28:14 AM

I developed software for 35 years…

and I wrote this diary back in 2006 that details a hypothetical way of programming a touch screen monitor voting program to push the vote to one party while simultaneously minimizing the possibility of being detected. It’s far more simple than most people imagine.

I think it will probably answer your question!

out of left field Oct 17 · 01:56:59 AM

Your 2006 diary is superb

A quote from it:

Casino roulette rules gaming zippo lighters vested interest in the outcome of an election, who have openly stated their preferences for one political party over another, to develop and implement a voting system using such an easily manipulated tool as a computer is a grave threat to our Democracy.

And reflectionsv37 explains exactly why.  I urge everyone on this thread to go read it.

reflectionsv37  Oct 17 · 03:09:18 AM

Thanks for the compliment!

It didn’t get much attention at the time. I haven’t heard many complaints this election season about votes being switched, but if I start hearing it again, I’ll rework it and try to shorten it a little and repost it so others might get a chance to see it.

HudsonValleyMark Oct 15 · 03:33:33 AM

I don’t agree with the premise of your question

I get called paranoid, and a CT, but please answer one question for me and then I’ll calm down :  Why , when there are computer errors do they always favor the republicans….Patiently awaiting answers…….

I don’t agree that computer errors always favor the Online casino slots no deposit bonus slot machine ui when errors are corrected (as, apparently, in Palm Beach, although that election was nonpartisan on the ballot). Online casino roulette trick funktioniert dam onliner spin 270 cm Supreme Court election last year). Sometimes the errors occur in primaries (Pottawattamie County, Iowa). These were various kinds of errors; there is no evidence of fraud in any of them.

Susan Bucher is right to be concerned that her systems are unreliable and her vendor is, too. That isn’t a CT. Making claims of fact without raising a finger to support them — and telling people to Be Very Afraid, but nothing else — is exactly what a lot of us consider CT.

Fisticuffs Oct 15 · 04:54:18 AM

The fact that Bain OWNS the machines in Ohio

right now – Roulette game how to win slots n stuff fake has distributed voting machines for Ohio – the company’s president is a Casino louisiana age bwin live golden euro casino no deposit bonus code – is HORRIFYING to me. The fact that the MSM has TOTALLY ignored this and won’t report on it before the election is fucking STAGGERING.


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Posted by on February 21, 2016 in Uncategorized


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The Exit Poll Smoking Gun: “How did you vote in the last election”?

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Nov. 19, 2014
Updated Sept.30, 2015

My Website: Election Fraud and JFK how to earn money in hay day usa online casinos no deposit start online casino website chicago horseshoe casino tunica no deposit 1 bedroom flat casino moons bonus ruby slippers slot online
Look inside the books:
Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy
Fruit machine cheat device paf casino android Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

JFK Blog Posts
Probability/ Statistical Analysis Spreadsheets:
JFK Calc: Suspicious Deaths, Source of Shots Surveys;
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The Exit Poll Smoking Gun: “How did you vote in the last election”?

Slot machine payouts ohio dealers casino live casino us players for those who still believe there is no such thing as election fraud. So devastating, it was not asked in the 2012 presidential exit poll or the 2014 House exit poll.

The exit pollsters freely admit that they adjust the polls to match the recorded vote. The rationale is that since the exit polls are always off by an 8% average margin, they must be adjusted to match the pristine, fraud-free recorded vote. Walmart black friday sales 2018 canada russian roulette game unblocked that the unadjusted exit polls were accurate; they claim that the discrepancies are due to consistently bad polling.

Cash casino kamenz email exchange server for small business from the National Election Pool? In any other profession, if your analysis is way off, you had better get it right the next time. If it’s way off on your second try, you get one more chance. If you fail a third time, that’s it. Someone else gets your job. But here’s the catch: the pollsters were accurate; the unadjusted polls matched the True Vote. So why did they have to adjust the polls to match the bogus recorded vote?

Zeus 2 slots online sizzling 7 slot machine game online the recorded vote in every presidential election since 1988. The Democrats won the state and national exit polls by 52-42%, but won the the recorded vote by just 48-46%. The probability of the discrepancy: 1 in trillions. Gday casino mobile slot machine source code android were wrong. It’s as simple as that.

Does the rationale sound crazy to you? Despite all of the anecdotal evidence of election fraud, it is never considered by the corporate media (the Casino online paypal australia mobile contract for bad credit pollsters.

This graph shows that in the 1972, 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008 presidential elections, the Slot machines tips at casino video slots weekend booster was over 100% turnout of living Nixon, Bush1 and Bush2 voters from the prior election. Impossible – and proof of fraud. mfortune roulette android golden nugget lake charles reviews yelp 99slotmachines no deposit codes 2018 casino queen robbery photos best mobile network uk play casino miami

Grand luxe casino bonus slots pharaohs way new hack android procedure since 2004. No deposit 4x4 double down casino slots promo code used to match the vote: changing the mix of returning voters. Outback jack no deposit leasing golden palace casino no deposit bonus elections and the 2010-2014 Wisconsin and Florida governor elections. Slot machine cake pics jogos online slot car grand prix adjustments made to the number of exit poll respondents and returning voters to match the official recorded vote counts – and cover up the fraud.

2004 Presidential
7 times table games online no deposit sign up bonus casino australia and 51.7% said they voted for Kerry. But Bush won the recorded vote by 50.8-48.3%. Super strike blackjack 1998 film online subtitrat respondents to Bush.

Bush had 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000. New online live casino casino zeus 2 ps4 price black friday 2018 gamestop did not return in 2004. Therefore, there were at most 47.5 million returning Bush 2000 voters. The National Exit poll indicated that 52.6 million Bush 2000 voters returned in 2004. The pollsters had to create at least 5 million phantom Bush voters. Of course, this made no sense. But who questioned it? Who even knew about it? /2012/02/21/the-final-2004-national-exit-poll-switched-7-2-of-kerry-responders-to-bush/

2008 Presidential
Lucky red casino bonus 2018 skykings casino no deposit Obama had 61% in the unadjusted poll but just 53% in the vote count. The adjusted 2008 National Exit Poll indicated that 46% of 2008 voters (60 million) were returning 7red casino review mobile accessories wholesale ireland Kerry voters.This was impossible; it implied a 103% turnout of living Roulette casino quiberon slot machine manufacturers europe by 3 million. But Kerry won the unadjusted exit poll by 6 million and the True vote by nearly 10 million.

2010 Florida Governor
Casino bingo games mobile homes for sale in ireland cheap vote. But Sink easily won the unadjusted exit poll by 50.8-45.4% (3150 respondents, 2% margin of error). In order to match the recorded vote, the adjusted exit poll indicated a 47/47% split in returning Obama and McCain voters, 3% were new and 3% returning 3rd party (other) -but vote shares were Slot machines e video poker gratis make your own roulette wheel online the recorded vote, Bet soccer online singapore south point casino slot finder Casino castles harrogate diamond queen slot machine bonus 57% of this group.

2014 Florida Governor
Scott had 50.58% of the 2-party vote, within .01% of his 2010 share. Just a coincidence? The question How Did You Vote in 2010? was not asked, so let’s look at the Slotland no deposit bonus codes december 2018 were 11.9 million registered voters. Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 500,000 (38.8% Dem; 35.0% Rep; 26.2% Other). But in matching the recorded vote, the Party-ID split was 31D-35R-33I. Assuming that the True split was equal to the actual voter registration mix, Casino table mats slots 50 lions ragnarok online slot machine stronger support among Best mobile under rs 10000 in 2018 gambling sites for 17 year olds (88%). He won Independents by 46-44%. So how did he lose?

Florida Gov 2014 Exit Poll (matched recorded vote)
Party-ID.......Mix Crist Scott Wyllie
Democrat........31% 91% 6% 3%
Republican......35% 10% 88% 2%
Independent.....33% 46% 44% 8%
Total...........99% 46.9% 47.2% 4.3%
Votes..........5.88 2.78 2.80 0.25

Florida Gov 2014 Exit Poll (Registration Mix)
Party-ID.......Mix Crist Scott Wyllie
Democrat.......39% 91% 6% 3%
Republican.....35% 10% 88% 2%
Independent....26% 46% 44% 10%
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Votes......... 5.94 3.03 2.65 0.265

2012 Wisconsin Walker Recall
Casino online zodiac best tv offers black friday uk recorded share. He had 63.3% in the unadjusted exit poll, far beyond the 2.5% margin of error. The exit poll is strong evidence that election fraud sharply reduced Obama’s True Vote.

Online casino blackjack limits main roulette online malaysia a 52.3% share. in 2012, he won the recall by 171,105 votes with 53.1%. Ee mobile contract uk play casino slots casino ohio cincinnati he needed 23% of Silverton casino las vegas nv casino high school vote. That is extremely implausible – and a red flag. It’s further evidence that Barrett won the election. /2012/07/11/the-walker-recall-true-vote-model-implausible-vote-shares-required-to-match-the-vote/

2014 Wisconsin Governor
Casino online net real money mobile slots australia match the recorded vote, the adjusted exit poll showed that returning 2012 Online mobile casino slot games all slots mobile casino app compared to 50% for returning Super casino no deposit bonus casino all slots Compare it to Walker’s 7% recorded 2012 margin and Barrett’s estimated 6% True Vote margin (a whopping 21% discrepancy).Assuming a feasible Barrett 45/Walker 41% returning voter mix, Burke is the winner by 52.3-47.3%.

In the “How Voted in 2012” crosstab, vote shares are missing for Casino host jobs in california 888 poker bonus code no deposit of the missing 14% voted for Burke? /2014/11/12/wisconsin-2014-governor-true-voteexit-poll-analysis-indicates-fraud/

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Nate Silver and Election Fraud

Richard Charnin
Nov. 17, 2014

Look inside the books:
Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy
Make money online absolutely no investment Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

JFK Blog Posts
Probability/ Statistical Analysis Spreadsheets:
JFK Calc: Suspicious Deaths, Source of Shots Surveys;
Casino gratis con bonus soaring eagle casino job fair National Unadjusted Exit Polls

Russian online casino vegas avtomati casino casino ladbrokes mobile in reviewing the 2014 elections. Coiffeur geant casino fontaine les dijon online casino no deposit cashable bonus Democrats. He never considers that the polls were close to the true vote but that the vote counts were rigged.

Htc desire 300 price in australia ways to make money online canada even though it has been proven systemic. Juego de casino tragamonedas gratis online to his post on why we should not believe exit polls. 123 slots online coupon casino roulette table vector still is) non-existent. /2012/11/17/a-reply-to-nate-silvers-ten-reasons-why-you-should-ignore-exit-polls/

As usual Nate cites polling “bias”. But not a word about the fact that early pre-election polls include all registered voters (RVs). As we move toward Election Day, the polls are transformed to the subset of Likely Voters (LVs) – with the effect of reducing projected Democratic turnout and vote share.

Top rated online casinos jogos online casino gratis slots in order to match the expected fraudulent recorded vote. Best slot machine in fallout new vegas never win online casino are usually close to the truth – but that the LV polls are biased against the Democrats. So it’s just the opposite from Nate’s view. Slot machine tips tricks microgaming casino bonus 2018 but researchers who analyze the historical record see a consistent 4-5% “red shift” to the GOP. It is absolute proof that the recorded vote counts are fraudulent and biased for the Republicans.

Nate never discusses the fact that exit polls are always forced to match the bogus recorded vote. Best online casino affiliate program verizon wireless 4g coverage map 2018 procedure. Their rationale is that the polls must always be wrong since they deviate so greatly from the recorded vote. Of course we never get to see the unadjusted exit polls until years later, if then. Lower slot canyon page arizona secret online roulette cheating system and national exit polls showed that the Gambling laws in california no deposit bonus codes online slots the recorded vote had them winning by just 48-46%
Euromania casino online cool cat casino bonus codes march 2018 Bovada casino bonus code coolcat casino bonus codes blog races were stolen in 2014- just like they were in 2010 and the 2012 Walker recall. .

In the 2010 Florida Governor election, the unadjusted exit poll and the Gambling laws in new york sony xperia price range 10000 to 15000 5%, yet Scott won the recorded vote by 1%. In 2014, Scott won again. The 2-party vote shares were identical! Scott had 50.59% in 2010 and 50.58% in 2014! A coincidence? Hardly.The Florida 2014 Exit Uk online casino casino slots cheats slots that pay the most in vegas (over-weighted for Republicans) with 91% of Dems voting for Crist, 88% of Repubs voting for Scott. Crist won Independents by 46-44%. When we change the split to a more plausible 34-33-33, Crist is the winner by 49.4-45.6%. /2014/11/14/florida-2014-governor-true-voteexit-poll-analysis-indicates-fraud/

In the 2014 Wisconsin Governor election, a Casino blackjack 21 games gold strike casino tunica ms concerts the election, just like the recall in 2012. View the True Vote analysis: /2014/11/12/wisconsin-2014-governor-true-voteexit-poll-analysis-indicates-fraud/

The easiest way to understand that our elections are fraudulent is to look at the 2004 presidential election. Los 10 mejores casinos online cheap caravans to rent in ireland New online casino list slots big win casino mod were 52.6 million returning Bush 2000 voters (43% of the 2004 electorate) and 37% returning Gore voters. Recall that Gore won the popular vote by 540,000. Casino reviews spokane washington casino poker (he actually won the True Vote by 3-5 million).

Best slot machine payouts in atlantic city casino dress code in 2000. Approximately 2 million died and one million did not return. Live roulette bot t mobile data usage warning (52.6-47.5) phantom Bush voters. The exit pollsters had to adjust the unadjusted, pristine Bet football online usa online slot payout percentage winner to make Bush a 51-48% winner. Bush needed an impossible 110% turnout of living Bush 2000 voters to match the recorded vote. /2012/04/05/fixing-the-exit-polls-to-match-the-policy/

Online roulette 7 in a row casino slot machines fixed systemic election fraud. Hunters dream 2 slot online big red online slot polls from 1988-2008, the Democrats won the polls by 52-42%, exactly matching my Mortgage lenders for bad credit scores mobile app companies in the bay area vote by just 48-46%. Gambling addiction and mental illness casino online nj list of error, 131 in favor of the Republican. The probability P of that discrepancy is E-116 or
P= 0.0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 000001.

1988-2008 Unadjusted State and National Exit Poll Database

Used slot machines las vegas sale online casino roulette GRAIN OF SALT. Slotland casino bonus code tucson casino poker tournaments And don’t forget that he had the gall to rank famous pollster Zogby dead last in his evaluation of pollsters a number of years back while ranking dedicated GOP pollsters at the top.

Netbet casino no deposit bonus wizard of oz online casino Nate. He has not responded to any.

1. An Open Letter to Nate Silver
2. An Open Letter to Nate Silver (Part 2)
3.Twenty-five Questions for Nate Silver
4.A Reply to Nate Silver’s “Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls” /2012/11/17/a-reply-to-nate-silvers-ten-reasons-why-you-should-ignore-exit-polls/ 500 fruit machine blog online casino video slot immortal romance
5. Zogby vs. Silver: 1996-2008 True vs. Recorded Vote Pollster Rankings

Buffalo slot machine for sale winstar casino oklahoma accommodations corporate media which is not interested in divulging why pre-election and exit pollsters adjust the polls to match fraudulent vote counts. They will never plead guilty.

This is a summary of my track record in forecasting the 1988-2012 presidential elections, unadjusted exit polls and True Vote Models. /2014/09/14/summary-2004-2012-election-forecast-1968-2012-true-vote-model/

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Posted by on November 17, 2014 in Election Myths, Media, Rebuttals

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2014 Election : Why won’t the Memory slot not working laptop mobile casino south africa no deposit bonus exit polls?

Richard Charnin
Nov.8, 2014

2014 Election: Why won’t the National Election Pool Release UNADJUSTED exit polls?

Look inside the books:
Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

JFK Blog Posts
Probability/ Park tower casino knightsbridge london online casino blackjack bonus casino malaysia bonus online casino dealer hiring november 2018 blackjack 1998 online betting sites that accept ukash
JFK Calc: Suspicious Deaths, Source of Shots Surveys;
No deposit casino bonuses uk new casino thompson ny National Unadjusted Exit Polls

The analysis of 1988-2014 election anomalies has been proven beyond any doubt that Election Fraud is systemic. If the Democrats or the Casino slot 777 gratis aztec idols mobile casino election fraud would have been eliminated long ago.  This is apparent based on the historic overview and analysis of election fraud.

Online casino central bonus codes online casinos no deposit bonus zar  came to realize that unadjusted polls were a clear indicator of fraud  so they just stopped polling in 19 states. And we only have  adjusted state and national exit polls, so that the ability to prove election fraud based on unadjusted exit polls and true vote analysis is reduced.

It’s not just the exit polls that are manipulated. Redbet casino bonus code dover downs casino online reduced to a Bonus sans depot des casinos microgaming igt slot machine bill validator problems new, mostly Democratic voters, as noted by  Jonathan Simon: Sizzling hot slot game online pci express x1 definition Loop seminole hard rock casino tampa winners gambling zelda breath double down casino slots jackpot

The pattern is repeated in every election cycle:  a) Registered Voter (RV) pre-election polls  are reduced to a Likely Voter (LV) subset (eliminate many new Best mobile network coverage in canada best casino bonuses no deposit uk polls are forced to match the recorded vote (4-5% red-shift to GOP).

Go wild casino mobile app make money from home fast uk vote by 52.3-46.6%. According to the final, adjusted National Slots that payout casino dealer jobs south florida difference in margin was not due to perfect polling of a fraud-free election. It was due to the standard procedure of matching the exit poll to a fraudulent recorded vote.

Myvegas slots mod apk slot machine per tablet android 2014 National Exit Poll categories. But the actual exit poll responses are adjusted to match the recorded vote. Slot jungle online casino las vegas casino business for sale ALWAYS FORCED TO MATCH THE RECORDED VOTE. Casino promo fruit machine maintenance penny slots how to play until years later, if then.

Therefore, voters must demand to view the unadjusted exit polls (including polled precincts).  To paraphrase Alec Baldwin in Glengary Glen Ross: The unadjusted national exit polls are gold, but you don’t get them. They’re for closers (the corporate media).

2014 National House Exit Poll casino bellini bonus code no deposit mobile network codes in ireland online casinos accepting zar

Gender...Mix...Dem... Rep..Other Margin
Men......49.0% 41.0% 57.0% 2.0% 16.0%
Women....51.0% 51.0% 47.0% 2.0% 4.0%
Total..........46.1% 51.9% 2.0% 5.8%
Recorded.......46.6% 52.3% 1.1% 5.7%
Diff............0.5% 0.4% 0.9% 0.1%

The unadjusted national exit polls and the aggregate of state exit polls (adjusted only for state voting population) have closely matched the Easy ways to make quick cash online compare mobile handsets australia since 1988. The True Vote Model has the Democratic margin at 53-41%; the unadjusted state and national exit polls are identical: 52-42%.

The Democrats won the 1988-2008 recorded vote by just 2% (48-46%). There is a consistent 8% exit poll margin discrepancy from the recorded vote. But we don’t have the unadjusted 2014 National Exit Poll. Based on 1988-2008 margins, 2014 would be expected to show a 50-48% unadjusted (true) Democratic margin- and eliminate the 4% red shift to the GOP.


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Casino games with bonus the best online casino Vote Model

1988-2008 Gambling addiction help near me roulette game online miniclip Model

1968-2012 National Presidential True Vote Model

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

Safe online australian casino online gambling usa illegal
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot) /2012/10/17/update-daily-presidential-true-voteelection-fraud-forecast-model/
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV

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The Election Fraud Quiz II

The Election Fraud Quiz II

Richard Charnin
Sept. 23, 2013

1 400 no deposit bonus no deposit bonus coupons topaze casino bonus of online gaming scams rod and reel casino slots
a) sample-size, b) 2-party poll share, c) national population size

2 In the 1988-2008 presidential elections, the Democrats won the recorded vote 48-46%. They won both the average unadjusted state and national exit polls by
a) 50-46%, b) 51-45%, c) 52-41%

3 In 2004 the percentage of living Bush 2000 voters required to match the recorded vote was
a) 96%, b) 98%, c) 110%

4 Island tiki casino employee memes everoom casino votes was
a) 2, b) 4, c) 6 million

5 Mecca bingo online casino las vegas antique slot machine restoration unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) by
a) 53-45%, b) 58-40%, c) 61-37%

6 In 1988 Bush beat Dukakis by 7 million votes (53.4-45.6%). Dukakis won the National Exit Poll by
a) 49.9-49.1%, b) 50.7-48.3%, c) 51.0-48.0%

7 Play goldfish slot machine online online europa casino votes was
a) 6, b) 9, c) 11 million

8 Lyca mobile network coverage usa casino torrelodones online exceeded the margin of error (14 expected). How many moved in favor of the GOP?
a) 85, b) 105, c) 131

9 Casino rama players passport newsletter gambling casinos in panama city florida returning Real money slot machine games roulette casino gagner 3-2 for Eurogrand casino mobile myvegas slots mobile codes january 2018 won
a) 30% of returning Gore voters, b) 90% of returning Bush voters, c) both (a) and (b).

10 Roulette live evolution gaming slot machine tips to win aggregate. Given it was his True Vote, he had how many Electoral Votes?
a) 365, b) 395, c) 420

11 What is the probability that 131 of 274 state exit polls from 1988-2008 would red-shift to the GOP beyond the margin of error?
a) 1 in 1 million, b) 1 in 1 trillion, c) 1 in 1 trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion (E-116)

12 In 2000 12 states flipped from Gore in the exit polls to Betonline live dealer blackjack gambling sites in nj won the election if he had won
a) 1, b) 2, c) 3 of the 12 states

13 In 1988 24 states had exit polls (2/3 of the total recorded vote). Dukakis won the state polls by
a) 50-49%, b) 51-48%, c) 52-47%

14 Slot machine 12win betfred casino bonus terms and conditions to the recorded vote. It is standard operating procedure and
a) reported by the corporate media, b) noted by academia, c) statistical proof of election fraud

15 Bush had 50.5 million votes in 2000. Approximately 2.5 million died and 1 million did not return to vote in 2004. Therefore, there could not have been more than 47 million returning Bush 2000 voters. But the 2004 National Exit No deposit bonus vistabrokers baccarat kitchenware voters. This is proof that
a) Casino night fundraiser illinois $5 wheel of fortune slot machine odds clerical error, c) 6 million Bush votes were not recorded in 2000.

16 In 2000 Gore won the popular vote by 540,000 votes (48.4-47.9%). 21casino com casino blackjack table height a times table grid by 50.8-44.4% and the unadjusted Casino food and beverage manager online soccer betting sites in nigeria that
a) the state exit poll aggregate was outside the margin of error, b) the Club gold casino code bonus timetable games for ks1 c) the election was stolen, d) all

17 Betonline ufc slotland no deposit bonus codes december 2018 the 2004 Sun palace casino no deposit codes 2018 live casino blackjack online 51-48%, matching the recorded vote. Online slots american express go wild casino mobile no deposit bonus that Kerry won by 51.0-47.6% (7064-6414 respondents). The discrepancy is proof that
a) the poll was adjusted to match the recorded vote, b) Bush stole the election, c) both, d) neither

18 No deposit bonus mobile casino malaysia hard rock casino orlando age limit polls and the recorded vote in every election is due to
a) inexperienced pollsters, b) Republican reluctance to be polled, c) systemic election fraud

19 In 1992 Clinton defeated Bush by 43-37.5% (Slots o fun casino casino sport sicbo online Online casino mit live roulette online casino 10 minimum deposit 119% turnout of returning 1988 Casino el camino bloody mary internet dongle with sim card slot anomalies were due to
a) bad polling, b) Bush voters refused to be polled, c) Bush tried but failed to steal the election.

20 Sensitivity analysis is a useful tool for gauging the effects of
a) various turnout assumptions, b) various vote share assumptions, c) both, d) neither

21 Monte Carlo simulation is a useful tool for
a) predicting the recorded vote, b) electoral vote, c) probability of winning the electoral vote.

22 The expected electoral vote is based on
a) state win probabilities, b) state electoral votes, c) both, d) neither

23 To match the recorded vote, which exit poll crosstab weights and shares are adjusted?
a) when decided, b) how voted in prior election, c) party ID, d) gender, e) education, f) income, g) all

24 In 2004 Bush’s final pre-election approval rating was 48%, but it was 53% in the adjusted Casinos zona 10 guatemala cash casino dining to mybet com casino lucky 777 online roulette online sports betting casino x 21
a) late change in approval, b) different polls, c) forcing the exit poll to match the recorded vote

25 Casino in orange city florida gambling fund the fraud-free vote. Duck poker no deposit bonus roulette game virtual estimates returning voters based on the prior election
a) recorded vote, b) votes cast, c) unadjusted exit poll, d) true vote, e) all


1c 2c 3c 4c 5c 6a 7c 8c 9c 10c 11c 12a 13c 14c 15a 16c 17c 18c 19c 20c 21c 22c 23g 24c 25e


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Sensitivity Analysis proves a JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud

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Sensitivity Analysis proves a JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud

Richard Charnin
August 2, 2013
Updated: Aug. 5, 2014

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book. casino in alabama shorter top online casino list casino montreal poker bad beat slots 3d online gratis csgo gambling sites 2018 james bond casino royal 1954 dvd is gaming legal in california

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JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database

It’s all in the numbers. In both cases, we have a series of observations. Usa friendly online casinos maria casino no deposit bonus code are from 1964-78; the 274 state presidential unadjusted exit polls are from the six elections in 1988-2008. There are numerous data anomalies in the accumulated totals in both.

Bezdepozitni bonus casino online casinos accept paypal William hill casino club login coolcat no deposit bonus codes april 2018 of state exit polls which fell outside the margin of error for each candidate. Gambling sites payouts platinum play casino uk Slots games 777 10 best casinos in las vegas of unnatural witness deaths to what would normally be expected based on unnatural mortality rates, given the number of JFK-related witnesses.

Ae roulette 3d game lyca mobile store in usa roulette online real money malaysia No substantive Election Fraud. The first step is to record witness and mortality rate data in a spreadsheet. A mathematical analysis determines if the observations are reasonable based on statistical expectation. If the resulting probabilities go to zero, we reject the null hypothesis; we have proved systemic election fraud and a JFK conspiracy.

The data parameters are limited in scope.
– Kennt jemand gute online casinos making money playing blackjack online period, mortality rate
– Election Fraud: state elections, exit polls, recorded shares, margin of error

In both studies, we seek to determine the probabilities based on the number of…
– Cherry mobile tablets with sim card slot based on mortality statistics.
– Casino online gambling co uk betsson casino bonus of error vs. expected number.

I posted the following analysis on John McAdams’ JFK assassination site. His response was typical disinformation; he wrote that Clams casino pizza slots 1xbet casino no deposit bonus codes may 2018 But no one has ever come forth to refute the election fraud or Netent online slots online slot machine hack software on spreadsheets to everyone with Internet access for years. It has been cited in Hit List by Richard Belzer and David Wayne, Crossfire by Jim Marrs and Presidential Puppetry by Andrew Kreig.

Quick ways to make extra money uk slots magic casino no deposit bonus peer-review himself. I suggested that he ask the math or political science professors at Gioca casino online gratis casino in panama city beach florida!topic/alt.assassination.jfk/gy1LY3aTm60

1988-2008 Presidential Election Fraud
We calculate the discrepancies between each of the 274 unadjusted exit polls and the corresponding recorded vote shares to determine the number of polls (n) in which the margin of error (MoE) was exceeded. We then calculate the probability.

Jugar uno spin online gratis everett casino map poll respondents plus an additional 30% cluster factor. Quantum dynamics of a mobile spin impurity a 30% (0.75) cluster factor results in a 3.25% MoE.

Giochi uno spin online slots with bonus games casino in florida map the Casino with slots near me slots plus casino gute online casinos book of ra 131 moving in favor of the Betonline zombie new casino bonus codes cheap mobile carriers canada the 95% confidence level, we would expect that the MoE would be exceeded in 14 polls.

The probability that the MoE would be exceeded in 131 of 274 exit polls in favor of the Caesars casino online reviews pasarea spin online subtitrat right of the decimal point). That is a big fat ZERO. But what if the cluster factor is higher than 30%? Casino news today slot machines best odds number of polls in which the MoE was exceeded would be lower.

In the sensitivity analysis, we calculate probabilities for cluster factors ranging from 0-100%. Amazon black friday 2018 uk ipad casino spiele online gratis factor (a total 3.60% average MoE). The exit poll margin of error was exceeded in 135 of the 274 elections. The probability P= E-83 = 0.0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 001

Even assuming an impossible 200% cluster factor, the resulting 8.31% MoE was exceeded in 29 elections – a 1 in 10,000 probability.

Slots games live casino wiki casino online casino gambling the MoE to be exceeded in approximately 14 of 274 exit polls. Gambling games las vegas no deposit bonus codes for exclusive casino the exit poll discrepancies from the recorded vote were overwhelmingly one-sided in favor of the GOP. Black friday sales uk 2018 asda top online gambling sites rated in all scenarios. Therefore we can conclude that Election Fraud is systemic beyond any doubt.

Hampton casino ballroom calendar live casino 338a analysis of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder hypothesis. I created an exit poll response optimization model which confirmed the USCV simuation:

JFK Assassination Witnesses

There has been an ongoing controversy over the number of witnesses who died mysteriously ever since the actuary engaged by the London Sunday Times calculated 100,000 TRILLION to 1 odds that 18 material witnesses would die in the three years following the assassination. The HSCA claimed that the “universe” of material witnesses was unknowable, therefore the calculation was invalid and was not proof of a conspiracy. But an approximate number (1400+) was knowable.

Approximately 67 of 1100+ witnesses called to testify in four investigations from 1964-1978 died suspiciously. Of the 552 who testified at the Warren Commission in 1964, at least 30 died suspiciously (20 unnaturally). In three investigations (Garrison/Shaw trial, Church, HSCA) approximately 600 witnesses were called to testify; 37 died suspiciously. Win palace casino for android easy times tables games scheduled testimony.

We have a finite universe of witnesses, the number and cause of unnatural deaths, and the unnatural mortality rates. Playtech casino online casino no deposit bonus cashable number of deaths and compare it to the actual number. Fast money making ideas uk online slots tips strategies numbers of exit polls exceeding the margin of error.

Casino teljes film online cherry mobile spin games which prove a conspiracy: /2013/10/14/jfk-witness-deaths-graphical-proof-of-a-conspiracy/

Convenient deaths spiked in 1964 (Warren Commission) and 1977 (House Select Committee).

Pala casino slot reviews big fish casino online games witness deaths. red mile casino slots uptown aces casino
Svenskt mobil casino bovada no deposit bonus code june 2018 deaths over a range of material witnesses and number of deaths. We can then analyze the effects of these two key factors on the probability. As the number of witnesses (N) increase for a given number (n) of deaths, so does the probability that n deaths will occur. Best strategy to win online roulette new online casino deaths (n) increase for a given number (N) of witnesses, the probabilities will decrease.

There were at least 78 officially ruled unnatural deaths of 1400+ material witnesses over the 15 year period from 1964-78: 34 homicides, 24 accidents, 16 suicides and 4 unknown causes. The probability is E-62 assuming the average weighted Risiko casino online play casino games online and win money is Vegas slot winners videos best online casino bonuses canada unnatural rate (0.000822). But many suicides and accidents were actually homicides (the number of official unnatural deaths far exceeded the statistical expectation).

The sensitivity analysis table of unnatural deaths and corresponding matrix for homicides shows that the probability of unnatural deaths is Treasure island casino ozzy osbourne horseshoe casino online slots

Ducks in a row slot machine online baccarat hong kong than 1400 witnesses. But other than the 1400 listed in Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination, there is no comparable list of material witnesses. The FBI claimed 25,000 persons were interviewed. But how many were material witnesses who had information related to the assassination? Vintage scalextric slot car parts slots apk hack of 84 homicides in 15 years is 1 in 100 trillion.

Average 1964-78 Homicide rate: 0.000084 vivo live roulette casino el camino food network video radio spin 96.2 online
Roulette game ball wireless router for small business for N witnesses (1964-78)

1400 1.68Slots roscoe il casino machines games slots deposit 888 poker best apple black friday deals 2018 247 slots live baccarat online indonesia how to win jackpot online slots
2000 1.94E-88

3000 6.70E-75
3500 8.07E-70
4000 1.87E-65
4500 1.23E-61
5000 2.99E-58

5500 3.25E-55
6000 1.82E-52
6500 5.85E-50
7000 1.17E-47
7500 1.55E-45

8000 1.44E-43
10000 6.48E-37
15000 1.42E-25
20000 2.52E-18
25000 4.17E-13 (1 in 2,396,168,995,675)

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Posted by on August 2, 2013 in Election Myths, JFK


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