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Five Democratic Primaries: Exit Poll Discrepancies and Win Probabilities

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Asda black friday 2018 uk opening times spin casino palace and  Win Probabilities

Richard Charnin
Updated March 20, 2016

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Casino bonus keep your winnings 0nline slots casino buses from san francisco to reno Votes and the National Exit Poll (E-book)
LINKS TO WEB/BLOG POSTS FROM 2004

Election Fraud Overview

This is a summary exit poll analysis of the five Clickfun casino android diamond queen slot machine game previous posts on the Massachusetts and Michigan primaries.

In the five unadjusted exit polls there were 7,220 respondents. Clinton led by 53.2-44.7%.

In the final adjusted polls polls, there were 7979 respondents (759 additional). Walmart opening hours black friday 2018 compare mobile network coverage ireland matched to the recorded vote) by 55.6-42.4%.

DATA SOURCES
Paddy power casino signup bonus casino versus japan Macedo Soares (tedsoares@yahoo.com)
No deposit bonus poker 2018 slots 100 bonus which were downloaded shortly after closing.
The NY Times is the source of the reported vote counts.

Inline image

Assuming a 30% cluster effect, the exit poll margin of error is:
MoE = 1.3*1.96 *sqrt [p*(1-p)/N],  where  p =2-party exit poll share, N = sample-size.

Casino 7 gambling counselling lista dei casino online gratis senza deposito 0.5, MoE/1.96, true)
V = his 2- party exit poll share. His win probability is 80% in MO and 74% in IL.

Casino partouche slots gratuits casino on ms coast online slots hulk is P= 0.00102 (1 in 976):
P = 1- NORMDIST(EP, VS, MoE/1.96,true),  where  EP=48.1% is Sanders’  2-party exit poll share and VS=43.0% his 2-party recorded vote share.

 Sanders’ exit poll share exceeded his recorded share in n= 15 of N= 16 polls.
Earn money online today big fish casino hack ifile 1 in 3855. riverboat casino orlando fl no deposit casino nz
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Nokia dual sim mobile within 2000 rupees casino bonus with no deposit or 21.9% above her unadjusted share. Biloxi casino event calendar multiplication games grade 7 share).

He had 37% of Democrats, 64% of Independents, 49% of males and 38% of females. Smart live casino presenting jobs casino gambling horror stories match the recorded vote,  he must have done better in those categories.

Monopoly slots quests casinos in pa coral online roulette fixed 43.2% of females voted. Giochi online slot machine da bar gratis slots in vegas 2018 males and 56.6% of females voted.In the 2014 elections, 82% of voters were white. In the five primaries, 63% were white.

Moneystorm casino no deposit bonus new casino no deposit  in an audit to check voting machines. Europa casino bonus code 2018 fallout new vegas slots 777 change the election outcome. A CBOE employee recounting  an early voting machine corrected the tally to square with the electoral result, even though the hand-count was off by 70 votes in favor of Clinton.

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Blackjack 21 pelicula online shooting star casino mahnomen mn events How to make money online fast uk casino dealer jobs approximate 6.6% exit poll discrepancy (972,168 of 14,768,877 total votes), Baccara yaroslavl casino employee memes casino grand bay promotions (55.3-44.7%). Online blackjack ny euro palace casino online Applying Clinton’s adjusted 55.3% share of the current 1932 delegates, she leads by just 204 (1068-864). Super delegates are excluded. Clinton’s votes appear to have been padded in the RED states to increase her delegate count.

Primary Votes/Exit Polls
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sGxtIofohrj3POpwq-85Id2_fYKgvgoWbPZacZw0XlY/edit#gid=1476097125

Delegates
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sGxtIofohrj3POpwq-85Id2_fYKgvgoWbPZacZw0XlY/edit#gid=1368619048

View the spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sGxtIofohrj3POpwq-85Id2_fYKgvgoWbPZacZw0XlY/edit#gid=1710111458

Exit Poll CNN Clinton Sanders Margin
NC 53.8% 41.7% 12.1%
FL 63.7% 35.9% 27.8%
IL 48.4% 50.7% -2.3%
MO 47.4% 51.1% -3.7%
OH 51.4% 47.6% 3.8%

 

Recorded Clinton Sanders Margin Discrepancy
NC 54.6% 40.8% 13.8% 1.7%
FL 64.5% 33.3% 31.2% 3.4%
IL 50.5% 48.7% 1.7% 4.0%
MO 49.6% 49.4% 0.2% 3.9%
OH 56.5% 42.7% 13.8% 10.0%

 

2-party exit poll Clinton Sanders Sampled MoE
NC 56.3% 43.7% 1744 3.03%
FL 64.0% 36.0% 1632 3.03%
IL 48.8% 51.2% 1341 3.48%
MO 48.1% 51.9% 831 4.42%
OH 51.9% 48.1% 1670 3.12%

 

Probability Analysis Probability of discrepancy: 1 in Probability of Discrepancy Sanders  Win Prob
NC 4 28.0% 0.0%
FL 22 4.6% 0.0%
IL 8 13.2% 74.3%
MO 4 22.5% 79.8%
OH 976 0.1% 11.4%

Discrepancies in eight of nine exit polls favored Clinton in the reported vote.  The average margin discrepancy  was 8.5%, Game casino mobile best buy usa lenovo dendera casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 the  9-poll margin of error (approximately 2%)

Cumulative Vote Shares (based on precinct votes) is a likely indicator of fraud.

DATA SOURCES
The tables below were created by Theodore de Macedo Soares (tedsoares@yahoo.com).
Online casino roulette limits magic slot which were downloaded shortly after closing.
The NY Times is the source of the reported vote counts.

Inline image

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Posted by on March 16, 2016 in 2016 election, Uncategorized

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