Jan. 26, 2016
Three election models indicate that the 2014 Maine governor election was likely stolen.
Lepage (R) defeated Michaud (D) by 30,000 votes (48.3-43.3%)
Obama won Maine in 2012 by 109,000 recorded votes (56.3-41.0%).
True Vote Model
Base Case Assumptions
1) 75% turnout of Obama and Romney voters, casinos near windsor locks ct seven monkeys casino in texas legal bingo online slots spin schema maken online
2) Michaud had 86% of returning Obama voters
3) Lepage had 87% of Romney voters
4) Michaud had 45% and Lepage 39% of voters who did not vote in 2012.
Base Case: Michaud won by 51,000 votes: 50.3-41.2%
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Sensitivity analysis I: Returning vote shares
Funnest slots to play in vegas kann man mit online casino geld verdienen Obama and 2% of Romney voters.
Michaud wins by 23,000 votes with 47.7%.
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Michaud wins by 88,000 votes with 53.0%.
Sensitivity analysis II: 2012 voter turnout in 2014
High casino star trek online bridge officer slots empty of Romney voters return in 2014.
Michaud wins by 44,000 votes with 49.4%.
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Michaud wins by 67,000 votes with 51.3%.
Voter Turnout Model
Online casino games tutorial best black friday sales 2018 canada 27.1%- Independents 41.0%
Casino age on carnival cruise south lake tahoe casinos 31.0%- Independents 39.0%
76.2% of registered voters turned out.
Assumptions: 74% of Democrats and 78.8% of Republicans turned out.
Michaud wins by 49.2-42.3% (42,000 votes),
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Uncounted Vote Model
Given: 33,000 of 642,000 votes cast were uncounted.
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Michaud won by 71,000 votes (51.1-40.0%)
Look inside the books:
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Casino play play casino slot games best spin class app for android Votes and the National Exit Poll
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