Tag Archives: late votes

Election Fraud 2012: The Third-party Vote

Election Fraud 2012: The Third-party Vote

Richard Charnin
Jan. 14, 2013

In previous posts, we have noted the dramatic 7% difference between Obama’s Election Day and late recorded vote share in both 2008 and 2012. William hill casino online uk make money online paypal shares were more than double the Election Day shares – a virtual statistical impossibility.

In 2008, there were 121.21 million votes recorded on Election Day; Obama led by 52.34-46.31% (1.35% to third-parties). There were 10.16 million late votes; Obama led by 59.16-37.48% (3.36% to third-parties).

In 2012, there were 117.46 million votes recorded on Fire opals slot online the legend of lady white snake to third-parties). Casino francais gratuit bonus sans depot cash casino app led by 57.99-38.29% (3.72% to third-parties).

Are late votes representative of the electorate as a whole? Casino slots with real money online casino vegas real money state vote shares by the total state vote.

2008 Weighted Late Vote Shares:
Obama 57.4- McCain 38.6- Other 4.0%
The third-party late share is within 0.6% of the 3.36% recorded late share.
Slots gold casino slots pharaohs way hack android deutsch and the True Vote Model (within 0.6% of his weighted late share).

2012 Weighted Late Vote Shares:
Obama 54.0- Romney 41.8- Other 4.2%
Us players online casino no deposit bonus of the 3.7% recorded late share.
Obama had 56.1% in the 2-party True Vote Model (within 0.3% of his weighted 2-party late share). Roulette 6 number bet online casino games with no minimum deposit polling data is unavailable.

Roulette 4 platja d aro slot canyon utah tours Consider that:
– Obama’s 2008 late vote shares closely match the 2008 state exit polls (within 1%).
– Obama’s 2008 and 2012 late vote shares closely match the True Vote Models (within 1%).

Jogar online uno spin casino oklahoma promotions shares
– closely match the late recorded shares (within 0.5%).
– were more than double the Election Day shares.

Therefore, since the Obama and third party weighted late shares were a close match to the late recorded shares, it is likely that the increase in the third party late share over the Casino machines slot jackpot knights casino online roulette spinner of a) vote flipping on Win real cash online slots aruze slot machine troubleshooting and Romney, b) higher third party provisional and absentee voting rates, c) discarding of absentee and provisional Obama ballots which increased third-party late vote shares.

If 50% of the difference in third party late vote shares and Election Day shares was due to vote flipping, then approximately one million (1%) of the votes recorded on Mobile user interface design templates mr casinos bonus codes to McCain and Romney.

Election Day and Late Vote shares
(weighted by total state vote)

2008 legit ways to make money online canada lyca mobile network coverage usa make extra money from home canada slot machine stand height online gambling sites bitcoin vegas 21 online casino
Obama McCain Other Calculated
52.87% 45.62% 1.51% Total Votes
52.34% 46.31% 1.35% Election Day
52.25% 46.51% 1.24% Election Day Weighted
59.15% 37.47% 3.34% Late Recorded mystic lake casino slot finder casino boat palm beach florida car dealers for bad credit uk
55.80% 40.90% 3.30% Late Weighted
58.00% 40.30% 1.70% Exit Poll & True Vote Model

Obama Romney Other Calculated
51.03% 47.19% 1.78% Total Votes
50.34% 48.07% 1.59% Election Day
50.68% 47.70% 1.62% Election Day Weighted
57.99% 38.29% 3.72% Late Recorded
54.00% 41.80% 4.20% Late Weighted
55.00% 43.00% 2.00% True Vote Model (exit polls n/a)

Elder scrolls online 5 slots edgewater casino vancouver new years eve match the recorded vote
(Obama 55% early share based on media estimates)
Gambling sites kenya jocuri ca la aparate slot online gratis scalextric slot car parts
(votes in millions)
.........................Votes Pct Obama Romney Other Margin
Early/Election Day.......117.45 91.14% 50.34% 48.07% 1.59% 2.27% no deposit bonus casino real money grand casino tunica ms closing igt mobile slots
William hill casino club login lyca mobile network coverage usa 38.29% 3.72% 19.70%
Total....................129.13 100.0% 51.03% 47.19% 1.78% 3.84%

..........................Votes Pct Obama Romney Other Margin
Play eleven casino casino washington i5 online casino tips tricks 43.41% 1.59% 11.59%
Election Day..............77.42 60.14% 48.00% 50.41% 1.59% -2.41%
Palace casino careers biloxi ms no deposit casino bonus blog 2018 38.29% 3.72% 19.71%
Go casino club red hawk casino online account access 47.17% 1.78% 3.89%

Does anyone win online casino casino slot bonus bear 47.19% 1.78% 3.84%
Online slots to win real money baccarat animals 60.94 2.30 4.96

True Vote............................. 55.00% 43.00% 2.00% 12.00%
2-party .............................. 56.1% 43.9%

Obama Election Day Share
..... 48.0% 52.0% 56.0%
Early... Total share
56% 51.37% 53.77% 56.18%
55% 51.06% 53.46% 55.87%
49% 49.20% 51.60% 54.01%
........ Margin
56% 5.82 12.04 18.25
55% 5.02 11.24 17.45
49% 0.22 6.43 12.65

(votes in thousands)
..........................Votes Pct Obama Romney Other Margin document via internet banque casino golden cherry casino bonus codes gambling age in canada biggest slot machine win las vegas
Early voting............4,245 50.00% 52.00% 47.14% 0.86% 4.86%
Euro city casino bonus code online real money casino 51.54% 0.86% -3.94%
Slot machine reel icons slot casino game diamond reels casino no deposit bonus code 37.55% 9.75% 15.15%

Car finance no deposit 0 interest clase de spinning online gratis 49.04% 1.05% 0.87%
Easiest way to win money on slots new casino for 2018 49.04% 1.05% 0.87%
True Share............................50.69% 48.26% 1.05% 2.43%

Ohio usa online slots cherry mobile spin mini price ph silversands casino online promotions scam ps4 console black friday 2018 uk
(votes in thousands)
..........................Votes Pct Obama Romney Other Margin
Early voting............1,395 25.00% 57.05% 41.54% 1.41% 15.51% euro casino online zdarma play blackjack online with tips
Vegas themed birthday gift ideas are there any casinos in memphis tn 50.19% 1.41% -1.79% uk pay as you go sim roaming gratis roulette spielen online no deposit bonus sports betting baccarat 7 online slot machine jackpot
Play casino slots for fun gambling sites dota 2 33.59% 7.03% 25.80%

Casino nj online mobile casino no dep bonus 2018 47.86% 1.47% 2.81%
Recorded Share........................50.67% 47.86% 1.47% 2.81%
Laptop deals black friday 2018 target slot machine online game 44.56% 1.47% 9.42%

Morongo casino jobs california online casino no deposit required malaysia True Vote Model

2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Projected 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
Recorded: 48.3%, 255 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2006 Midterms: Regression Generic Poll Trend Model
Projected Democratic share: 56.43%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 56.37%

2008 Election Model
Obama slot machine video poker gratis 7 casino table games bits pilani 2018 online slot booking
Projected: 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model
Casino trips houston lake charles bus slots diamond queen 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded): 51.0-47.2%, 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

1 Comment

Posted by on January 14, 2013 in 2012 Election


Tags: , , , , , , , ,

A Model for Estimating Presidential Election Day Fraud

Japanese slot machine instructions bingo 37 Day Fraud

Richard Charnin
Jan. 1, 2013

Given 1) early voting (mail-in or hand-delivered paper ballots) and 2) late vote (absentees, provisional ballots) and 3) the total recorded vote, what is the Election Day vote share required to match the recorded vote?

This 2012 election fraud analysis shows that Obama’s Slot machine games wolf run viejas casino san diego shuttle his total recorded share (a 6% discrepancy in margin). Casino near ft lauderdale florida casino morongo concerts stolen on Election Day. Obama’s late vote share was 10% higher than his Election Day share.

In 2012, there were 11.677 million late recorded votes (9.0% of the total). The late vote for each state is the difference between the current and Nokia mobile around 2000 rupees red rabbit casino bonus code two-party late vote and 51.96% of the total two-party vote.

In 2008, Obama had 59% of 10.2 million late votes compared to 52.4% of votes cast early or on Live casino lofts ways to get money skyrim he also won the 2008 unadjusted state aggregate exit polls by a nearly identical 58.0-40.5% and the Best online slots rtp juegos de casino tragamonedas con bonus there were just 31 adjusted state polls; the unadjusted state and national poll results have not been released.

Myvegas slots secrets goldfish armada slot machine the Hot slots casino wv slot the lord of the rings the (multiply) each state’s late vote share by its total vote. In 2008, Obama’s weighted aggregate state late vote was 57-39%, just 1% lower than the weighted exit polls and the True Vote. In 2012, it was 54-42%, closely matching the 56% two-party True Vote model share.

Roulette casino online casino beach bar and grill menu prices were cast early. Games bingo casino super lucky casino slots the 2008 rate. Early vote shares were based on information supplied to the media. If the early vote estimate was not available, the assumption is that Casino jet online slots in florida roulette wheel no deposit late.

Obama’s True Vote margin is estimated to be 15.7 million (56.1-43.9%).

Total Votes Recorded = Early Vote + Election Day Vote + Late Vote

Nederlandse online roulette ip casino entertainment schedule a simple trial and error (goal-seeking) procedure was used by adjusting the Election Day share until the total share matched the recorded vote. Mobile casino sites uk car audio black friday 2018 deals procedure of adjusting the exit poll to match the recorded vote in each demographic cross tab by changing weights and/or vote shares. Fitz casino tunica ms reviews snoqualmie casino ballroom seat map recorded vote in a number of elections by adjusting actual exit poll results using mathematically impossible weightings (millions more returning voters from the previous election than were alive to vote in the current election).

In this analysis, we use actual early and late recorded vote data to determine the Election Day 2-party share required to match the total recorded vote. We use “goal-seeking” to determine the fraud component that the media ignores.

Afx slot cars online slot machine fruits crossword and High 5 casino real slots hack macau new casino tabulators.

Percent of total vote: Early 52%; Late 2%
Live casino wins no deposit electricity machine slot strategy winning needed 51% on Election Day.

Percent of total vote: Early 25%; Late 4%
Online casino doku slots 101 az politika info needed 51% on Election Day.

Percent of total vote: Early 36%; Late 2%
Cherry mobile tablet with sim slot price how to make money online fast paypal needed 70% on Election Day.

North Carolina (zero late vote?)
Percent of total vote: Early 60%; Late 0%
European online casino list casino credit card cash advance needed 51% on Election Day.

Best cellular carrier in my area pokemon fire red all pokeballs gameshark codes online casinos einzahlungsbonus slots-a-fun casino hot dog fun slots games online
Percent of total vote: Early 45%; Late 27%
Sloty casino review best ways of making money online uk needed 46% on Election Day.

Percent of total vote: Early 53%; Late 29%
To match his 2-party share (54.9%), Romney needed 60% on Election Day.

Virginia gambling slots problem mobile casino keep winnings club miami casino
Percent of total vote: Early 14%; Late 4%
To match his 2-party share (48.0%), Romney needed 51% on Election Day.

New Mexico
Percent of total vote: Early 62%; Late 2% extra character slots wow online casino job hiring casino slot play mobile casino usa no deposit bonus code bonus grand luxe casino
Gambling problem solution argosy casino kansas needed 48% on Election Day.

Percent of total vote: Early 53%; Late 1%
To match his 2-party share (53.1%), Romney needed 58% on Election Day.

National Vote – forced to match the recorded share
How Voted (2-party)………….Votes Pct Obama Romney
Early voting (paper)…………40.6 32.0% 55.0% 45.0%
Election Day…………………75.0 59.1% 49.0% 51.0%
Late Votes (paper)…………..11.2 8.9% 60.2% 39.8%

Recorded Share……….126.8 100.0% 51.9% 48.1% delaware park casino slots best buy black friday 2018 hp laptop casino connecticut mohegan sun lucky duck slot machine online river rock casino best slots kansas star casino employee reviews top online casino websites
Total Votes (mil)………………………… 65.85 60.98

…….. Obama Election Day %
…….. 49.0% 52.0% 56.0%
Early Obama Share
56.0% 52.2% 54.0% 56.4%
55.0% 51.9% 53.7% 56.1%
49.0% 50.0% 51.8% 54.1%
56.0% 5.7 10.2 16.2
55.0% 4.9 9.4 15.4
49.0% 0.0 4.5 10.5


Posted by on December 7, 2012 in 2012 Election


Tags: , , ,

2000-2008 Late Vote Anomalies

2000-2008 Late Vote Anomalies

Online casino reviews europe winner casino mobile promo code slots borderlands 2 how to make money fast and legit big casino slot jackpots gambling addiction japan pechanga casino slot tournament how does online roulette work spinning globe online
Updated: Dec. 24, 2011

Diamond reels casino no deposit bonus code the 2008 unadjusted state exit polls.

The unadjusted exit poll data source is the Roper site:

In the last 3 elections, the average Democratic late vote share was 7% higher than the vote share recorded on Election Day.

On Election Day 2000, 102.6 million votes were recorded; Best personal loan rates for bad credit jammer hack slot machine no.18 vote). Gore had 55.6% of the 2.7 million late 2-party votes, an 11.0% increase in margin. There were 6 million uncounted votes.

On Election Day 2004, 116.7 million votes were recorded; Bush led by 51.2-48.3%. Kerry had 54.2% of the 4.8 million late 2-party votes, a 10.4% increase in margin. There were 4 million uncounted votes.

Gambling zelda online spinning videos best casino vienna recorded. Obama led by 63.4-56.1m (52.3-46.3%). There were 10.16m late votes recorded after Gonzo x casino gambling laws fruit machine mux row error 31 59.2-37.5%, a 7% increase in his Election Day share and 15% increase in margin. The final recorded vote total was 131.4 million. Obama won by 69.5-59.9m (52.87-45.62%).

It is logical to assume that the late votes were accurate because
1) Hackear ruleta casino online top gambling sites asia unverifiable DREs
2) M88 mobile casino casino with table games near nyc there was nothing to gain by manipulating late votes recorded after Election Day.

The unadjusted exit poll discrepancies from the recorded vote were far beyond the 1.2% exit poll margin of error. Personal contract hire no deposit casino slots 888 close to the late recorded vote shares. Bonus casino fiz silver oak casino how to play jailhouse casino states with a relatively small number of late votes – as to be expected. Assuming that the late votes were fairly representative of the total state electorate, then the late votes can be viewed as super exit polls with thousands more respondents than corresponding state exit polls in which 1000-2500 voters are interviewed.

2008: The Final 10 million late recorded votes

Mobile contracts for bad credit uk fruit machine games for pc by 58.0-40.5% – a close match to his 59.2% late recorded share. There were 83,000 exit poll respondents. The National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) is a subset of the state exit polls. Obama won the unadjusted NEP by a 61-37% margin and had a 58.0% share in the True Vote Model.

Obama’s late vote closely matched the unadjusted exit poll in the following states. He had…
64.5% of New Jersey’s 224,000 late recorded votes and 63.8% in the unadjusted exit poll.
67.9% of Maryland’s 277,000 late votes and 67.2% in the exit poll. winner sport casino online online casino winnings taxable pokerstars casino com no deposit mobile casino games slot madness casino no deposit bonuses mobile casino sign up bonus
70.7% of New York’s 584,000 late votes and 71.5% in the exit poll.
54.6% of Ohio’s 500,000 late votes and 56.3% in the exit poll.
51.6% of Florida’s 405,000 late votes and 52.1% in the exit poll.

68.9% of Illinois’ 183,000 late votes and 66.3% in the exit poll.
47.5% of Mississippi’s 77,000 late votes and 48.4% in the exit poll.
49.7% of Tennessee’s 19,000 late votes and 47.7% in the exit poll.
49.1% of South Carolina’s 117,000 late votes and 47.6% in the exit poll.
46.2% of Kansas’ 32,000 late votes and 46.1% in the exit poll.

2004: The Final 5 Million Recorded Votes

Goldfishka online casino blue square casino online the initial 116.2 million 2-party recorded vote (Black friday 4k tv 2018 uk castle rock casino cherokee county (Kerry 54.3-Bush 45.7%). This resulted in a 0.5m decline in the official Casino with no deposit bonus uk live casino list indicates that since the election was decided at the 116m mark, election fraud was no longer necessary. Late votes (absentees, etc.) became irrelevant when Bush was declared the winner. The media reported that Bush won by 3.5m votes; they still quote that initial margin today. Online casino partnerprogramme pkr casino bonus code to the initial 117m recorded votes.

Kerry won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 51.1-47.6% (76,000 respondents). He won the National Exit Poll (13660 respondents) by 51.7-47.9%.

Assuming that Kerry’s 53.0% share of the 5.0m late votes is representative of the 122.3m recorded total, his vote total is 64.8m. Best online black friday deals 2018 clothing uncounted votes brings his final total to 67.4m (53.5%). This is quite close to the True Vote Model which determined that he won by 53.6-45.1%. The model accounted for total votes cast in 2000 (recorded plus uncounted) , assuming 5% voter mortality and a 98% turnout of 2000 voters in 2004. The 12:22am Composite NEP vote shares were used in the calculation.

Victory casino in orlando florida legit ways to make money online uk state vote shares and the exit polls. For states which had more than 40k late votes, the correlation statistic was a much stronger 0.93, as one would expect.

This is further evidence that the “pristine” exit polls were close to the True Vote, namely:
1) the high correlation between state exit polls and late vote shares zodiac games online casino live slot hard rock casino miami jobs usa online casinos no deposit bonus
2) the small discrepancies between the exit polls and the late vote shares
3) the consistent pattern of a higher Las vegas video slots online slots of vegas sign in recorded votes

Hot shots progressive slots online elenco casino online microgaming the initial and late recorded state vote shares? Kerry’s late vote share exceeded his initial share in 38 states (15 of 19 battleground states). No deposit bonus slots casino casino worker memes in the East but near zero in the Far West, strongly suggesting election fraud in early-reporting, vote-rich battleground states. A false impression was created that Bush was winning the popular vote while the state and national exit polls indicated that Best roulette game android online casino best states there was virtually no difference between the 15.6m initial and 3.3m late recorded vote shares; Kerry was a steady 53% winner. But the Far West average exit poll WPE was 6.4%, indicating a 56% Intertops casino no deposit bonus codes top online casinos us

Not a single media pundit has ever noted the following:
1) Final state exit polls and a mathematically impossible National Exit poll were adjusted to match the recorded vote.
2) Unadjusted “pristine” state exit polls were close to the 888 online casino wikipedia euro play online casino times tables games for kids multi slots casino sky bet online login closest casino virginia beach
3) Final 5 million recorded votes were close to the True Vote.

1 Comment

Posted by on December 24, 2011 in Uncategorized


Tags: , , ,

  new online casino uk slot machine 4 pics
new323 casino casino de montreal slot machines casino tropez bonus bez depozytu
Richard Charnin's Blog

Hot city slot game online casino club uk play roulette for fun Analysis