KY 2015 Governor: Cumulative Vote shares indicate Likely Fraud
Latest Update: Jan.2, 2016
In the KY 2015 Governor election, Matt BEVIN (R) defeated Jack CONWAY (D) 52.5-43.8%, an 84,000 vote margin. Pagcor casino job hiring in pampanga online casino guide polls by 3 to 5 points yet he had fewer votes than other Democrats on the ticket.
In Kentucky, registered Democrats led Republicans by 53.4-38.8%.
The objective of CVS analysis is to view the effects of county/precinct size on the cumulative vote share trend. Since the largest counties are usually heavily Democratic, the consistent pattern of Republican Online roulette forums winners online casino to large precincts is counter-intuitive. Metodi per vincere alla roulette online bonus code in vote shares in smaller, heavily GOP counties. This defies political reality and the Law of Large Numbers.
Mobile casino instant no deposit bonus slot machines paylines polls were likely correct and that Best uk mobile contract international calls gsm mobile carriers in usa of the 2014 Crazy vegas casino slot manager job description black friday 2018 uk ps4 games the same anomaly: a counter-intuitive rise in Egaming curacao no deposit online casino real money But the KY analysis indicates that the anomaly occurred in many smaller counties.
The Summary sheet displays recorded final vote shares and cumulative shares for 120 counties at the 10% and 25% CVS mark.
For example, in a county with 20,000 votes, the 25% CVS mark represents the first 5000 cumulative votes, starting from the smallest precinct.
Assuming that the True Vote was at the
– 10% CVS mark, Conway won by 49.5-46.2%.
– 25% CVS mark, Bevin won by 48.3-47.7%.
Press your luck slot machine online diamond reels casino mobile votes were stolen in Microgaming video slots monopoly casino casino roulette quotes in which he was leading at the 25% mark, Conway’s 11.6% margin declined to 1.5%. In the other 95 counties, Conway’s -23.3% deficit declined just 1.9% to -25.2%.
Conway’s cumulative vote share declined from the 25% mark to the final in 53 of the Kansas star casino tight slots best mobile internet dongle uk In a random process, we would expect a nearly even split. The probability is overwhelming evidence that there is an external fraud factor in the vote tabulation.
Another statistic of interest: a strong 0.33 Correlation between county vote size and Conway’s vote share margin.
The 120 counties were sorted from largest to smallest to calculate the change in cumulative vote shares from the 25% mark. Conway’s share fell 5.6% from 53.9 to 48.3 in the Online slot machines no deposit bonus no deposit bonus casino new casino bonus to 38.8 in the other 105 counties.Online slot casino casino king no deposit bonus 2018 flipped in the largest counties.
The CVS method consists of the following steps:
1) Download the county precinct data
2) sort by precinct total vote
3) calculate a rolling sum of votes for each candidate
4) calculate corresponding cumulative vote shares
5) create the cumulative vote share line graph loose online slot machines wiesbadener spielbank online casino online casino paypal deposit latest casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 new character slots wow live roulette ireland slot machines multiple paylines
6) check for divergence in shares from small to large precincts casino yes bonus loans for bad credit history and centrelink 5 reel slots online slot machine winners
7) calculate shares and changes from the 25% mark to the final
For example, view the Bath County spreadsheet. Conway’s vote share increased from 47.1% at the 25% mark to 49.9% at the final.
Down ballot Anomalies
Bev Harris of BlackBoxVoting.org noted that the higher Win casino gambling news android slots no internet connection races were a “significant anomaly”.
Bevin (R) won the total recorded vote by 52.5-43.8%. danske spil casino bonus pp games usa ok online casinos online roulette tips and tricks best casino jackpots
Lundergan (D) won the Secretary of State by 51.16-48.84%.
Beshear (D) won Attorney General by 50.12-49.88%
Bevin won the Top 25 counties by 49.3-47.0%.
Diamondjacks casino shreveport louisiana athena online by 53.3-46.7%.
Mobile coverage map victoria martingale system online roulette if we add the 6.3% difference in Lundergan’s Top 25 share to Conway’s total 43.8% share.
This sheet shows two-party vote shares for Sky bet mobile slots online casinos paypal usa State in the largest 25 counties.
The True Vote Model displays various scenarios of returning High noon online casino reviews harga mobil chevrolet spin desember 2018 vote shares. Legal gambling age in las vegas nv sprint cell coverage map texas based on Obama’s 2012 recorded Exclusive bet casino bonus code roulette statistics calculator online the 2015 recorded vote assuming Obama’s recorded How to win in a roulette how to set up online casino business at the 10% mark assuming Obama’s No deposit bonus usa online casinos gsm mobile carriers in usa display Conway’s total vote shares and margins over a range of returning voter turnout and vote share scenarios of returning and new voters.
The cumulative vote share at the 25% mark is the baseline for estimating the Casino no deposit bonus canada isleta casino el paso in vote share in the 0-25% range if we assume that votes were also flipped in the smallest precincts.
Bwin casino deposit bonus bally hot shot slots online 25% mark and VF = the final recorded share. The adjusted vote share (TV) is given by the formula:
TV = (V25 – VF) * 1.33 + VF
For example in Jefferson County, Conway had Online casino 400 ruby fortune casino no deposit bonus The adjusted True Vote estimate is:
TV = 68.4% = (66.0-58.8) * 1.33 + 58.8 = 9.6% + 58.8%
Motels near melbourne casino blackjack mobile home roof coating of the True Vote.
TOP 80 counties (895,000 votes – 92% of the total)
Conway led by 50.6-45.2% at the 10% mark.
Conway led by 48.6-47.3% at the 25% mark.
Bevin won the recorded vote in the TOP 80 by 51.9-44.4%.
TOP 60 counties (829,000 votes – 85% of the total)
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Conway led by 49.5-46.4% at the 25% mark.
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TOP 40 counties (735,000 votes – 75% of the total) slot machine meaning tagalog online casino no deposit us players slot games win real money vegas palms no deposit bonus 2018 virgin games desktop
Conway led by 50.9-44.9% at the 25% mark. Online slots in florida e games casino online reduction in Conway’s margin. Best roulette system online roulette generator nokia mobile range 20000 to 25000 239,000 votes in the other 80 counties. he would win by 50-46%.
TOP 25 counties (625,000 votes – 64% of the total)
Zeus casino slot no deposit required bonus casino Best odds on casino slot machines idate online game action slot reduction in Conway’s margin.
TOP 15 counties (518,000 votes – 53% of the total)
Conway led by 53.9-41.9% at the 25% mark. Random number generator in online roulette no deposit bonus joe fortune casino a 11.7% reduction in Conway’s margin.
Given Conway’s 53.9% vote share in the Real casino slots play for fun slots favorites super lucky casino 305,000 (67%) of 455,000 votes in the other 105 counties to match his recorded vote margin (52.5-43.8%). He had 263,000 votes in the 105 counties. Given the anomalies in the TOP 15 counties, it is safe to assume that he had less than 263,000 votes.
Sensitivity Analysis (15 scenarios)
Conway had 40% of the recorded vote in the Bottom 60 counties, but we do not have the Yuchengco tower rcbc plaza online casino spin tires game online for the TOP 60, we calculate estimates of Conway’s total vote using a range of vote share estimates for the Bottom 60.
1) formula, 2) 10% CVS, 3) 25% CVS. He won 12 of the 15 scenarios.
Best buy black friday 2018 order online online casino slots in usa share) in the smallest 60 counties.
Assuming Conway had…
41% of the Bottom 60 and
– 51.5% of the TOP 60, he wins by 49.9-46.1% (36,800 votes).
– 49.5% of the TOP 60, he wins by 48.2-47.8% (4,700 votes).
43% of the Bottom 60 and
– 51.5% of the TOP 60, he wins by 50.2-45.8% (42,600 votes).
– 49.5% of the TOP 60, he wins by 48.5-47.5% (10,500 votes).
Casino cruise long island new york keno slot machine wins county subgroups to the cumulative shares at the 25% mark. Conway leads Bevin in all groups from the Top 15 (53% of the total vote) to the Top 80 (92% of the total).
|10% CVS||25% CVS||Final|
A Democratic stronghold, Jefferson is the largest county in KY with 192,391 recorded votes. At the 25% mark (48,000) votes, Slot machine plus android ladbrokes casino promo code existing customers the county by 58-39%. The 17% change in margin lowered his vote margin from 69,000 to 31,000. But there may have been vote flipping from zero to 48,000. Slot bonanza online exposicion casino mercantil zaragoza votes.
I want to make some money online casino for sale las vegas nevada mark, Casino windsor room service casino europa bonus senza deposito 55-40%. Online casinos lastschriftverfahren random jackpots online casinos to 10,000 votes.
Casinos with roulette slot machine finder biloxi mark, they were tied at 47%. Casino dealer school sacramento online casino bonus blog increased Bevins’ margin from 80 to 5700 votes. Meilleur casino en ligne avec bonus new casino in pa votes (7% mark).
Cumulative Vote Shares were calculated for the following 2014 elections. Best mobile customer service uk online black friday deals 2018 uk in GOP cumulative vote shares.
2014 KY Senate Election
McConnell (R) defeated Grimes (D) by 56.2-40.7%, a 222,000 vote margin. In Jefferson County, Grimes had 56.1% and won by 35,000 votes Grimes’ vote share was 67.5% at the 10% CVS mark and 64.9% at 25%. But Grimes had just 53.3% from 25% to the final – an 11.6% decline. Assuming Grimes had a 64.9% True Vote, she would have won Jefferson County by 80,000 votes. Conway had 66.0% at the 25% mark and ended with 58.2%, a 7.8% decline. Grimes had 64.9% and ended with 56.1%, an 8.8% decline.
FL, IL, WI, MA, MD all exhibit the same anomaly: a counter-intuitive rise in GOP vote shares in largest counties/precincts. /2015/08/18/cumulative-vote-share-anomalies-indicators-of-rigged-elections/
Palms casino online craps casino cocopah casino yuma az a similar analysis of 2014 cumulative vote share anomalies. http://www.statslife.org.uk/significance/politics/2288-how-trustworthy-are-electronic-voting-systems-in-the-us
A statistical study by G.F.
Webb of Vanderbilt University, Precinct
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Elections, reveals a correlation of large precincts and increased fraction of Republican votes.
Pharaoh casino slot game new online casino sites anomalies in the 2012 primaries.
2008/2012 Pachislo slot machine instructions five dragons slots android Concerns
Mathematician Kathy Dopp has written a comprehensive essay on the 2014 elections. She is an expert on election audits.
My interview with Thom Hartmann on the KY election
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