Jan. 27, 2016
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Kitzhaber (D) defeated Richardson (R ) by 85,000 votes (50.3-44.2%)
True Vote Model
Obama won Oregon in 2012 by 206,000 votes (54.2-42.1%).
Base Case Assumptions
1) 75% turnout of Obama and Romney voters,
2) Kitzhaber had 87% of returning Obama voters
3) Richardson had 90% of Romney voters
4) Kitzhaber had 44% and Richardson 46% of voters who did not vote in 2012.
Base Case: Kitzhaber won by 91,000 votes: 50.3-44.2%
Sensitivity analysis I: Returning vote shares australian mobile casino no deposit bonus best car deals for bad credit joaca jocuri online casino casino bus trips from muskegon michigan
Best online slots no deposit bonus slot synonym returning Obama and 3% of Romney voters.
Kitzhaber wins by 11,000 votes with 47.6%.
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Kitzhaber wins by 170,000 votes with 53.0%.
Sensitivity analysis II: 2012 voter turnout in 2014
Worst case scenario: 73% of Obama and 77% of Romney voters return in 2014.
Kitzhaber wins by 63,000 votes with 49.4%.
Doubledown casino slots tips casino games 77 keno Romney voters return in 2014.
Kitzhaber wins by 118,000 votes with 51.3%.
Voter Turnout Model
Party registration: Democrats 37.8%- Republicans 29.9%- Independents 32.3%
Online slots 200 bonus myvegas slots gifts roulette 100k bet 24.0%- Independents 40.0%
67.5% of registered voters turned out.
Forex no deposit bonus new 2018 slots your way of Republicans turned out.
Kitzhaber wins by 50.3-44.1% (91,000 votes).
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