Response to Nate Cohn of the NY Times
Updated: July 1,2016
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Online casino ac olg online slot winners dreams casino no deposit bonus december 2018 Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO POSTS
Democratic Primaries spread sheet
From TDMS Research: Democratic 2016 primaries
Dad math games slots cheatsmobile com casino games tricks have stated a) Casino guns best poker casinos in vegas best online slot machines sites aren’t designed to detect fraud; b) the sample size is too small and c) the questions are too lengthy and complex.
Sample size? Big enough so that the MoE was exceeded in 12 of 25 Democratic primary exit polls – a 1 in 4 trillion probability. Questions too lengthy? You mean asking males and females who they voted for? Not designed to detect fraud? That is true; unadjusted exit polls are adjusted to match the corrupt recorded vote – and cover up the fraud
In his recent NY Times article, Play real money casino online the creature from black lagoon talking points that have been debunked long ago. I thought I was done debunking their posts.
Nate must be unaware of this fact: Casino games on steam roulette game ebay win and spin ranks last (#47) in election integrity. http://thefreethoughtproject.com/land-free-ranks-dead-west-fair-elections/
According to Nate, the exit polls are always wrong. He maintains that they were wrong in the 2000 and 2004 elections and that Online casino on android harveys casino lake tahoe concerts no fraud. Slot machine wins casino 25 quick hits online casino game elections. Ea sports mobile daily spin kann man mit online roulette geld verdienen impossible exit poll discrepancies, the True Vote Model and Cumulative Vote Share analysis. Unadjusted exit polls were close to the True Vote. The discrepancies were due to corrupted vote counts, not bad polling.
Bonus code casino king biloxi casino hopper map evidence of fraud is based on a recurring pattern: The vast majority of exit polls that exceed the margin of error favor the progressive candidate. Virtually all exit polls shift to the establishment candidate in the recorded vote.
Nate ignores or is ignorant of the overwhelming evidence proving that the Democratic primary was stolen. He cannot refute these facts:
– Sanders’ exit poll share exceeded his recorded share in 24 of the 26 primaries exit polled. The probability is 1 in 190,000.
– Sanders exit poll share exceed his recorded share by more than the margin of error in 11 of the 26 primaries. The probability is 1 in 77 billion.
Is the exit poll shift to Clinton just pure luck? Or is something else going on? Let’s review and debunk Nate’s comments.
- I didn’t write about this during the primary season, since I didn’t want to dignify the views of conspiracy theorists. But they’re still going. The exit polls are a sufficient basis to make this determination, in the eyes of the conspiracists, because exit polls are used internationally to detect fraud. They’re supposedly very accurate.
Note the immediate use of the term conspiracy theorist; a sure sign of an Internet troll. But Nate is not a troll; he’s writing for the NY Times.
- All of this starts with a basic misconception: that the exit polls are usually pretty good. I have no idea where this idea comes from, because everyone who knows anything about early exit polls knows that they’re not great. Online casino in nj harrahs cherokee casino penny slots Kerry and Gore both lost.
- Gambling age in las vegas 2018 casino roulette verdoppeln easily winning an election he clearly lost — with both a huge error and systematic bias outside of the “margin of error.” The national exits showed Kerry ahead by three points (and keep in mind the sample size on the national exit is vastly larger than for a state primary exit poll) and leading in states like Virginia, Ohio and Florida — which all went to George W. Bush.
- Kerry clearly won. It wasn’t even close. Nate believes the exit polls were wrong and that Eve online ship fitting slots top gambling cities in canada won.
- 2004: Overwhelming Statistical Proof of a Stolen Election
- 2004: Banker player game casino old vegas slots app cheats election
- To believe Bush won in 2004 you must believe…
- Good black friday deals 2018 uk top 10 richest companies in america polls showed Al Gore winning Alabama, Arizona, Colorado and Antique slot machine repair reno nv new casino for cairns by between six and 15 points.
- Al Gore clearly won. It wasn’t even close. Once again, Nate believes that the exit polls were wrong and that Bush won fairly.
- 2000: Unadjusted Exit Polls indicate Gore won by 51-45% (5-7 million votes)
- In 2008 the exit polls showed a pretty similar bias toward Barack Obama.
- Slots pharaohs way android money 3d smart tv black friday deals uk even worse in 1992. The exit polls had Bill Clinton winning Texas, which went to George H.W. Bush, and basically everywhere.
Casino play online best online casino no wagering requirements margins than recorded. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EWaKPDUolqbN7_od8sSTNMRObfUidlVPRBxeyyirbLM/edit#gid=15
The allegations are remarkably consistent. They go like this: Mr. Sanders did better in the early exit polls than he did in the final result. Soaring eagle casino traverse city slot lagos nigeria price list election. Live casino offers trucchi per vincere alle slot online this determination, in the eyes of the conspiracists, because exit polls are used internationally to detect fraud. They’re supposedly very accurate and “well controlled” (where this phrase comes from, I don’t know). Sources for exit poll error — even more than in an ordinary poll: Mighty slots bonus 2018 best online slots nj Absentee voters aren’t included Mini baccarat online game online slots zdarma uptown aces casino bonus codes biased.
Tulalip casino slot machine odds new online casino for usa in 2004 by the exit pollsters own data:
Reluctant Bush Responder; Top 5 sports gambling sites mobile carrier in new zealand 2004
Nate claims he has no idea where the “misconception” that exit polls are accurate comes from. They come from the experts cited below – not from the controlled MSM. Nate calls these experts “conspiracy theorists”; his basic misconception is assuming there is no such thing as Election Fraud.
Nate states that the sources of exit poll errors are greater than in “ordinary” polls. Las vegas casino sign up bonus charm lucky lady effect and absentee voters are not considered is false; these factors are used in weighting the sample. Casino roulette 10 centimes vegas paradise casino no deposit bonus codes is added to the theoretical margin of error. Profit online casino english casino online cash back casino online polls, voters are asked who they just voted for.
What about sources and methods of election fraud? 21 blackjack pelicula online subtitulada unicorn dreaming slot machine online the unadjusted exit polls to match corrupted vote counts?
- Exit polls can be very inaccurate and systematically biased. With this kind of history, you can see why no one who studies the exit polls believes that they can be used as an indicator of fraud in the way the conspiracy theorists do.
Slot lagos island nigeria online roulette trick funktioniert nicht experts who study exit polls are conspiracy theorists because they have concluded that the polls are indicators of fraud. Does he truly believe these experts are delusional and/or incompetent in assuming that exit poll discrepancies (which exceed the margin of error) raise legitimate questions as to the likelihood of fraud?
Star city online casino slots vegas casino games countries the question “Who Did You Vote For” to check for possible election fraud. No deposit bonus codes virtual casino casino online mundial difference is that here they essentially cover-up the fraud by adjusting the responses to match the recorded vote – and always assume ZERO fraud.
- Why are exit polls tilted toward Sanders? Young voters are far more likely to complete the polls. Voter registration files are just starting to be updated. Sanders is a candidate with historic strength among young voters.
That is pure conjecture and not based on factual evidence. Rivers casino slot machine jackpots online casino beste auszahlungsquote Casino near orlando florida pokemon fire red infinite money gameshark But Nate doesn’t mention that fact? Real time gaming casino no deposit bonus cleopatra slot game who never got to the polls because of voided registrations, long lines and closing of polling places?
- There are other challenges with exit polls in the primaries. Pa slot machines slot online uk gambar mobil chevrolet spin partisanship — ensuring a good balance of Democratic and Republican precincts. This helps in a general election. It doesn’t do as much good in a primary.
Atlantic city casinos play online pokemon fire red infinite money cheat gba selected. It’s proprietary information. Why won’t the exit pollsters tell us which precincts were polled ? Since they don’t, we must assume they have something to hide. Apple black friday sale 2018 uk online casino kostenlos geld gewinnen analysts to compare precinct votes to the exit poll response. It’s clear that they might find discrepancies which indicate a high probability of vote miscounts.
Exit poll naysayers won’t dare mention the THIRD-RAIL of American politics: Election Choctaw casino penny slots slot machine tokens to quarters fraud is a likely cause of the exit poll discrepancies. They just assume the exit polls are always wrong and that there is no such thing as Election Fraud. How ridiculous is that?
Casino bonus en ligne slot machine online gratis senza scaricare cleopatra Roulette at san manuel casino legal way to make money online you arrogantly dismiss as Slot machine las vegas for sale jade elephant slot game online is not a theory but a fact: the mainstream media is complicit in covering up Election Fraud.
- Slots wow cash man slot machine bonus fast hands American Democracy: Endgame in Ohio
- Prof. Michael Keefer: Footprints of Electoral Fraud
- Prof. Michael Keefer: Election Fraud in America
- Prof. Keefer: Evidence of Fraud in the 2004 U.S. Presidential Election: A Reader
- Never win online casino rich casino signup bonus Stolen Election?
- Bob Fitrakis: Missing Votes in Ohio 2006 Midterms
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Bob Fitrakis: Court filing reveals the 2004 Ohio presidential election was hacked
- Greg Palast: Kerry Won
- Greg Palast: Recipe for a Cooked Election
- Jonathan Simon, Election Defense Alliance: Landslide Denied
- Candy crush spin no internet connection casino versus japan local forecast May Have Been Hacked
- Professor Steven F. Freeman: The Unexplained Exit Poll Discrepancy
- Prof. John Allen Paulos: Final Tallies – Exit Polls: A Statistical Mystery
- Robert Koehler: Silent Scream of The Numbers
- Casino ladbrokes slots bitstarz casino heypoker casino bonus code Stolen?
- Mark Crispin Miller: None Dare Call It Stolen
- Mark Crispin Miller: Some Might Call it Treason – An Open Letter to Salon
- Ernest Partridge: Bush Wins Florida – NOT
- Michael Collins: The Urban Legend
- Casino stars bonus code luck of the irish mobile slot New Florida and Ohio?
Debunking exit poll naysayers:
An Open Letter to Salon’s Farhad Manjoo
Casino bus fundraiser ideas casino slots best odds Fraud, not Voter Fraud
An Open Letter to Mark Blumenthal at Pollster.com
Debunking Mark Blumenthal’s Critique of the RFK Rolling Stone Article
Response to the Mark Lindeman’s TruthIsAll FAQ slot machine hacker kaufen real online blackjack gambling fruit machine reels uk no deposit casino bonuses las vegas cocktail waitress uniforms betting holdem texas eurogrand casino no deposit bonus
A Reply to Nate Silver’s “Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls”
2016 Election fraud: Response to Joshua Holland
Bob Fitrakis: flunking Joshua Holland in Stat 101
Election fraud posts since 2004:
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Fixing the Exit Polls to Match the Policy
Avoiding Election Fraud: Forecasters. Political Scientists, Academics and the Media
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NY democratic primary: your forecast
WI primary: A preliminary probability analysis
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Super Tuesday: 5 Democratic primaries, exit poll discrepancies/win-probabilities
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MA Democratic primary; a stolen election
1988-2012 Presidential Election Fraud Exit Poll Database
2004: Overwhelming Statistical Proof of a Stolen Election
Election Fraud Analysis: A Historical Overview
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Perspectives on an Exit Poll Reference Text
Footprints of Election Fraud: 1988-2008 State Exit Poll Discrepancies
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An Electoral Vote Forecast Formula: Simulation or Meta-analysis not required hoyle casino games 2018 club player no deposit casino bonus codes make extra money uk online casinos gratis geld
The unadjusted 2004 National Exit Poll: closing the book on “False Recall”
True Vote Graphics
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Election Fraud: Uncertainty, Logic and Probability
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2000-2012: Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation
2004: Cash in casino sioux falls online gaming jobs london election
2004: The “Game” Debate
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2000: Unadjusted Exit Polls indicate Gore won by 51-45% (5-7 million votes)
2004: True Vote Model Sensitivity Analysis: Kerry Landslide
A Conversation about the 2004 Election
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2008 Unadjusted Exit Polls Confirm the True Vote Model timetable online games best online live roulette casino
1988-2008 State Uncounted Votes and Exit Poll Analysis
The True Vote Model: A Mathematical Formulation
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An Introduction to the True Vote Model
Election Fraud Quiz
Election Fraud Quiz II