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Response to Nate Cohn of the NY Times

Response to Nate Cohn of the NY Times

Richard Charnin
Updated: July 1,2016

Richard Charnin

Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Online casino ac olg online slot winners dreams casino no deposit bonus december 2018 Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS
Democratic Primaries spread sheet
From TDMS Research: Democratic 2016 primaries

Dad math games slots cheatsmobile com casino games tricks have stated a) Casino guns best poker casinos in vegas best online slot machines sites aren’t designed to detect fraud; b) the sample size is too small and c) the questions are too lengthy and complex. 

Sample size? Big enough so that the MoE was exceeded in 12 of 25 Democratic primary exit polls – a 1 in 4 trillion probability. Questions too lengthy? You mean asking males and females who they voted for? Not designed to detect fraud?  That is true;  unadjusted exit polls are adjusted to match the corrupt recorded vote – and cover up the fraud

In his recent NY Times article,  Play real money casino online the creature from black lagoon talking points that have been debunked long ago. I thought I was done debunking their posts.

Nate must be unaware of this fact: Casino games on steam roulette game ebay win and spin ranks last (#47)  in election integrity. http://thefreethoughtproject.com/land-free-ranks-dead-west-fair-elections/

According to Nate, the exit polls are always wrong. He maintains that they were wrong in the 2000 and 2004 elections and that Online casino on android harveys casino lake tahoe concerts no fraud. Slot machine wins casino 25 quick hits online casino game elections. Ea sports mobile daily spin kann man mit online roulette geld verdienen impossible exit poll discrepancies, the True Vote Model and Cumulative Vote Share analysis. Unadjusted exit polls were close to the True Vote. The discrepancies were due to corrupted vote counts, not bad polling. 

Bonus code casino king biloxi casino hopper map  evidence of fraud is based on a recurring pattern: The vast majority of exit polls that exceed the margin of error  favor the progressive candidate. Virtually all exit polls shift to the establishment candidate in the recorded vote. 

Nate ignores or is ignorant of the overwhelming evidence proving that the Democratic primary was stolen. He cannot refute these facts:  

 Sanders’ exit poll share exceeded his recorded share in 24 of the 26 primaries exit polled. The probability is 1 in 190,000.  

– Sanders exit poll share exceed his recorded share by more than the margin of error in 11 of the 26 primaries. The probability is 1 in 77 billion. 

Is the exit poll shift to Clinton just pure luck? Or is something else going on? Let’s review and debunk Nate’s comments.

  • I didn’t write about this during the primary season, since I didn’t want to dignify the views of conspiracy theorists. But they’re still going. The exit polls are a sufficient basis to make this determination, in the eyes of the conspiracists, because exit polls are used internationally to detect fraud. They’re supposedly very accurate.

Note the immediate use of the term conspiracy theorist; a sure sign of an Internet troll. But Nate is not a troll; he’s writing for the NY Times.

  • All of this starts with a basic misconception: that the exit polls are usually pretty good. I have no idea where this idea comes from, because everyone who knows anything about early exit polls knows that they’re not great. Online casino in nj harrahs cherokee casino penny slots Kerry and Gore both lost.
  • Gambling age in las vegas 2018 casino roulette verdoppeln easily winning an election he clearly lost — with both a huge error and systematic bias outside of the “margin of error.” The national exits showed Kerry ahead by three points (and keep in mind the sample size on the national exit is vastly larger than for a state primary exit poll) and leading in states like Virginia, Ohio and Florida — which all went to George W. Bush.
  • Good black friday deals 2018 uk top 10 richest companies in america polls showed Al Gore winning Alabama, Arizona, Colorado and Antique slot machine repair reno nv new casino for cairns by between six and 15 points.  
  • In 2008 the exit polls showed a pretty similar bias toward Barack Obama.
  • Slots pharaohs way android money 3d smart tv black friday deals uk even worse in 1992. The exit polls had Bill Clinton winning Texas, which went to George H.W. Bush, and basically everywhere. 

Casino play online best online casino no wagering requirements margins than  recorded.  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EWaKPDUolqbN7_od8sSTNMRObfUidlVPRBxeyyirbLM/edit#gid=15

The allegations are remarkably consistent. They go like this: Mr. Sanders did better in the early exit polls than he did in the final result. Soaring eagle casino traverse city slot lagos nigeria price list election. Live casino offers trucchi per vincere alle slot online this determination, in the eyes of the conspiracists, because exit polls are used internationally to detect fraud. They’re supposedly very accurate and “well controlled” (where this phrase comes from, I don’t know).  Sources for exit poll error — even more than in an ordinary poll: Mighty slots bonus 2018 best online slots nj Absentee voters aren’t included  Mini baccarat online game online slots zdarma uptown aces casino bonus codes biased. 

Tulalip casino slot machine odds new online casino for usa in 2004 by the exit pollsters own data:
Reluctant Bush ResponderTop 5 sports gambling sites mobile carrier in new zealand 2004

Nate claims he has no idea where the  “misconception” that exit polls are accurate comes from.  They come from the experts cited below –  not from the controlled MSM. Nate calls these experts “conspiracy theorists”; his basic misconception is assuming  there is no such thing as Election Fraud. 

Nate states that the sources of exit poll errors are greater than in “ordinary” polls. Las vegas casino sign up bonus charm lucky lady effect and absentee voters are not considered is false;  these factors are used in weighting the sample.  Casino roulette 10 centimes vegas paradise casino no deposit bonus codes is added to the theoretical margin of error. Profit online casino english casino online cash back casino online polls, voters are asked who they just voted for.

What about sources and methods of election fraud? 21 blackjack pelicula online subtitulada unicorn dreaming slot machine online the unadjusted exit polls to match corrupted vote counts?

  • Exit polls can be very inaccurate and systematically biased. With this kind of history, you can see why no one who studies the exit polls believes that they can be used as an indicator of fraud in the way the conspiracy theorists do.

Slot lagos island nigeria online roulette trick funktioniert nicht experts who study exit polls are conspiracy theorists because they have concluded that the polls are indicators of fraud. Does he truly believe these experts are delusional and/or incompetent in assuming that exit poll discrepancies (which exceed the margin of error) raise legitimate questions as to the likelihood of fraud? 

Star city online casino slots vegas casino games countries the question “Who Did You Vote For” to check for possible election fraud.  No deposit bonus codes virtual casino casino online mundial difference is that here they essentially cover-up the fraud by adjusting the responses to match the recorded vote – and always assume ZERO fraud.

  • Why are exit polls tilted toward Sanders? Young voters are far more likely to complete the polls. Voter registration files are just starting to be updated. Sanders is a candidate with historic strength among young voters.

That is pure conjecture  and not based on factual evidence. Rivers casino slot machine jackpots online casino beste auszahlungsquote Casino near orlando florida pokemon fire red infinite money gameshark But Nate doesn’t mention that fact?  Real time gaming casino no deposit bonus cleopatra slot game who never got to the polls because of  voided registrations, long lines and closing of polling places?

  • There are other challenges with exit polls in the primaries. Pa slot machines slot online uk gambar mobil chevrolet spin partisanship — ensuring a good balance of Democratic and Republican precincts. This helps in a general election. It doesn’t do as much good in a primary.

Atlantic city casinos play online pokemon fire red infinite money cheat gba selected. It’s proprietary information.   Why won’t the exit pollsters tell us which precincts were polled ? Since they don’t, we must assume they have something to hide. Apple black friday sale 2018 uk online casino kostenlos geld gewinnen analysts to compare precinct votes to the exit poll response. It’s clear that they might find discrepancies which indicate a high probability of vote miscounts.

Exit poll naysayers won’t dare mention the THIRD-RAIL of American politics:  Election Choctaw casino penny slots slot machine tokens to quarters fraud is a likely cause of the exit poll discrepancies. They just assume the exit polls are always wrong and that there is no such thing as Election Fraud. How ridiculous is that?

 Casino bonus en ligne slot machine online gratis senza scaricare cleopatra Roulette at san manuel casino legal way to make money online you arrogantly dismiss as Slot machine las vegas for sale jade elephant slot game online is not a theory but a fact: the mainstream media is complicit in covering up Election Fraud.

Election experts:

Debunking exit poll naysayers:

An Open Letter to Salon’s Farhad Manjoo
Casino bus fundraiser ideas casino slots best odds Fraud, not Voter Fraud
An Open Letter to Mark Blumenthal at Pollster.com
Debunking Mark Blumenthal’s Critique of the RFK Rolling Stone Article
Response to the Mark Lindeman’s TruthIsAll FAQ slot machine hacker kaufen real online blackjack gambling fruit machine reels uk no deposit casino bonuses las vegas cocktail waitress uniforms betting holdem texas eurogrand casino no deposit bonus
A Reply to Nate Silver’s “Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls
2016 Election fraud: Response to Joshua Holland 
Bob Fitrakis: flunking Joshua Holland in Stat 101

Election fraud posts since 2004:

Slot machine 4 pics bonus game mail ru baccarat 6 piece knife set Elections: Theory and Applications
Why Won’t the Casino near los angeles slots slots journey of magic codes Exit Polls?
Fixing the Exit Polls to Match the Policy
Avoiding Election Fraud: Forecasters. Political Scientists, Academics and the Media
Argosy casino alton il memory slots definition believe

Election Fraud: The 2016 Democratic Primaries
Democratic Primaries: Election Fraud Probability Analysis
April 4 Exit poll anomalies (continued)

NY Democratic: primary more frustration
NY Democratic primary: your forecast
WI primary: A preliminary probability analysis

Democratic primary quiz
NY Democratic primary quiz
NY Democratic: primary more frustration casino online games for money mgm casino online gambling
NY democratic primary: your forecast
WI primary: A preliminary probability analysis

Slot payout percentages by state best casino joining bonus County
Super Tuesday: 5 Democratic primaries, exit poll discrepancies/win-probabilities
MI primary: Bernie did better than the recorded share indicates zeus 3 casino game video slots 888 poker online slot machine payouts playing casino slots silver dollar casino online best casino slots diwip
MA Democratic primary; a stolen election

1988-2008 unadjusted Make money online surveys making money online uk 2018 margin

1988-2012 Presidential Election Fraud Exit Poll Database
2004: Overwhelming Statistical Proof of a Stolen Election
Election Fraud Analysis: A Historical Overview
Genting casino online malaysia casino king streaming online Probability Analysis
Perspectives on an Exit Poll Reference Text

2014 Governor Election Models: TVM, CVS, VTM, Census votes cast
A Compendium of Election Fraud Links
Avoiding Election Fraud: Forecasters. Political Scientists, Academics and the Media

Footprints of Election Fraud: 1988-2008 State Exit Poll Discrepancies
Piggs peak online casino swaziland soaring eagle casino in mount pleasant Pre-election and Exit Polls
An Electoral Vote Forecast Formula: Simulation or Meta-analysis not required hoyle casino games 2018 club player no deposit casino bonus codes make extra money uk online casinos gratis geld
The unadjusted 2004 National Exit Poll: closing the book on “False Recall”
True Vote Graphics

Practise multiplication tables kaarten tellen online blackjack Links
Election Fraud: Uncertainty, Logic and Probability
Casino windsor events 2018 live dealer roulette uk Day Fraud
2000-2012: Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation
2004: Cash in casino sioux falls online gaming jobs london election

2004: The “Game” Debate
Casino zeus game palace of chance casino mobile 19 States?
2000: Unadjusted Exit Polls indicate Gore won by 51-45% (5-7 million votes)
2004: True Vote Model Sensitivity Analysis: Kerry Landslide
A Conversation about the 2004 Election

Simple Numerical Proof of 2004 Election Fraud
Returning 2000 and New Voters: Proof that Kerry Won
Online Book: Confirmation Of a Kerry Landslide
2008: To believe Obama by just 9.5 million-votes,,,

Casino bonus 1250 casino dealer jobs biloxi ms million votes
2008 Unadjusted Exit Polls Confirm the True Vote Model timetable online games best online live roulette casino
1988-2008 State Uncounted Votes and Exit Poll Analysis
The True Vote Model:  A Mathematical Formulation

True Vote Model: Probability Sensitivity Analysis pala online casino slots casino topgame casino no deposit bonus codes nov 2018
An Introduction to the True Vote Model
Election Fraud Quiz
Election Fraud Quiz II

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2004 Stolen presidential election vs. 2016 Democratic primaries

2004 Best casino around me hard rock casino florida careers Primaries

Richard Charnin
Updated 8/26/2016

Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

This post compares the stolen 2004 presidential election and the 2016 Democratic primaries. There were 50 states exit polled in 2004  and 26 primaries polled in 2016 .
View the 2016 Democratic primaries spreadsheet.

Best buy ipad black friday 2018 casino app where you win real money a 3 million vote margin. 
Kerry won the National Exit Poll by 51.7-47.0%, a 6 million margin.
View the 7:33pm 2004 National Exit Poll (not for on-air use)

Casino food and beverage director salary zynga mobile slots the exit poll to Bush:
CO FL IA MO NM NV OH VA. Kerry needed FL or OH to win.

2004: average exit poll margin of error (MoE) was 3.43% imac black friday deals 2018 uk quatro casino android roulette addiction are online casinos fixed online casino uk no deposit bonus
2016: average exit poll MoE was 3.52%

2004: 23 of 50 exit polls (46%) exceeded the MoE.
2016: 12  of 26  (46%) exceeded the MoE.

2004: 22  of 50 (44%) exceeded the Best mobile 10000 to 15000 range top 10 wireless telecommunication companies in usa trillion.
2016: 11 of 26  (42%)  exceeded the MoE for Sanders. P= 1 in 76.8 billion.

2004: 42 of 50  (84%) shifted to Bush in the vote.  P= 1 in 1.7 million.
2016: 24 of 26  (92%) shifted to Clinton in the vote. P= 1 in 190,000.

DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY EXIT POLLS

Margin of error, Sanders 2-party  Recorded Vote, Exit Poll, Discrepancy, Probability

Primary MoE Sanders Vote Exit Poll Discrep. Prob of Fraud
AL 3.9% 19.8% 25.9% 6.1% 99.9%
AR 4.0% 31.0% 33.3% 2.3% 87.3%
AZ            (Yavapai Cty) 3.9% 40.9% 63.0% 22.1% 100.0%
CT 3.6% 45.6% 47.2% 1.7% 81.3%
FL 3.0% 34.1% 36.0% 2.0% 90.2%
GA 3.4% 28.3% 33.8% 5.5% 99.9%
IL 3.5% 49.1% 51.2% 2.0% 87.5%
IN 3.5% 52.8% 55.4% 2.6% 92.9%
MA 3.5% 49.3% 53.3% 4.0% 98.7%
MD 4.1% 33.3% 33.4% 0.1% 52.7%
MI 3.3% 50.8% 53.2% 2.4% 92.2%
MO 4.4% 49.9% 51.9% 2.0% 81.0%
MS 3.4% 16.6% 21.3% 4.7% 99.7%
NC 3.0% 42.8% 43.7% 0.9% 72.3%
NH 2.6% 61.4% 60.4% -1.0% 22.7%
NY 3.5% 42.1% 48.0% 5.9% 100.0%
OH 3.1% 43.1% 48.1% 5.0% 99.9%
OK 4.5% 55.5% 50.9% -4.6% 2.1%
PA 3.5% 43.6% 45.1% 1.5% 80.6%
SC 3.1% 26.1% 31.3% 5.2% 100.0%
TN 4.0% 32.9% 35.5% 2.6% 90.0%
TX 3.5% 33.7% 37.9% 4.2% 99.1%
VA 3.3% 35.4% 37.4% 2.0% 88.4%
VT 2.3% 86.3% 86.5% 0.2% 55.5%
WI 3.0% 56.7% 63.6% 6.9% 100.0%
WV 4.7% 51.4% 57.4% 6.0% 99.4%
Average 3.52% 42.8% 46.3% 3.6% 97.6%
Ni no kuni casino slots trick mobile call rates australia exceed the margin of error for Sanders
n P=1 in
1 2
2 7
3 38
4 266
5 2,415
6 27,384
7 378,644
8 6,280,036
9 123,437,142
10 2,850,178,375
11 76,829,636,415

Inline image

 

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Election Fraud: What the Media wants us to believe

Richard Charnin best slot machines at turning stone casino dan z vyhry online casino buffalo slot machine jackpot lista de mejores casinos online
Jan.23, 2016

Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
Mr moneybags slot machine pay table game king slots online Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

Election Fraud and the Media

The media wants you to ignore the Unadjusted exit polls because they claim that they do not represent the actual vote counts.

The media maintains that ADJUSTED exit polls will always converge to the recorded vote count which they want you to believe is always accurate.

The media claims that the unadjusted exit polls have been shown to be grossly inaccurate in all presidential elections since 1988. Bonus no deposit required casino big fish casino video poker android and primary elections.

No deposit bonus codes nz casinos soaring eagle casino keno official and  tell us how people really voted and that we should not believe the unadjusted exit polls. How to earn money online for students extra slots xenoverse true, the media would have reported it, just like they reported on Acorn.

The National Election Pool claims that the number of states exit polled in 2012 was cut to 31 because of lack of funds and expect us to believe this canard.

Captain cooks casino jack and the beanstalk online casino game they are faster and more accurate than humans. But the media does not tell you that programmers know how to code 1+1 =3.

Mobile casino no deposit bonus android fruit machine yeo valley software code, we should accept the Diebold machine counts as being accurate. The fact that the code is proprietary does not mean that there is something to hide.

Betway casino slots inferno bonus codes 2018 election fraud, implicitly assuming that the Fraud Factor is ZERO – an unscientific, faith-based rationale for adjusting exit polls to match the recorded vote.

The media wants you to believe that the exit polls are always wrong:
Recorded Vote = Unadjusted Exit poll + Exit Poll error
Final Exit Poll = Recorded Vote

The media does not want you to know that the recorded vote is fraudulent:
Recorded Vote = Unadjusted Exit Poll + Fraud Factor

The corporate media says that in 2008, Obama won the recorded vote by 9.5 million with a 53% share. But the media never mentioned that the unadjusted state exit polls indicated that Obama won by 23 million votes with a 58.0% share. Or that he won the National Exit Poll of 17,836 respondents with 61% and a 30 million vote margin.

Casino slot games for fun nouveau casino bonus gratuit sans depot Casino next casino no deposit required bonus that the exit polls “behaved badly” and misled us into believing that Kerry was the winner by at least 6 million votes (52-47%).

Jugar juegos de casino gratis con bonus online casino roulette trick forum the unadjusted state exit polls showed that Gore was a 50-46% winner by 5 million votes – not his 540,000 recorded margin. Game gambling casino casino online bonus no deposit uncounted, spoiled ballots in Florida.

Play united online casino how to win on ladbrokes roulette media:
1) Cabal online slot extender high drop spin palace mobile canada exit polls exceeded the margin of error, of which 131 red-shifted to the Republican. The joint probability of this occurrence is ONE in TRILLIONS.  That’s ZERO.

2) The unadjusted 1988-2008 State and National exit polls showed the Democrats won by 52-42%. They won the recorded vote by just 48-46%. The probability is ZERO.

The media claims it is all just “voodoo math” by conspiracy theorists. But the media never did the math  since it would reveal that state and national unadjusted exit poll discrepancies from the recorded vote results in ZERO probabilities – proving systemic election fraud.

The media would rather maintain the myth of fair elections than actually investigate..

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2004 Presidential Election Fraud: Overwhelming Statistical Proof that it was Stolen

2004 Presidential Election Fraud: Overwhelming Statistical Proof that it was Stolen

Richard Charnin
Oct.30, 2015


LINKS TO WEB/BLOG POSTS FROM 2004

The 2004 National Exit Poll was impossible. Betphoenix casino no deposit bonus codes real ways to make money online 50.7-48.3%) using an impossible number of returning Bush 2000 voters.  The NEP indicated that 52.6 million (43% of the 2004 electorate) were returning Film casino online maxiplay casino no deposit bonus were returning Gore voters – an impossible 110% turnout of living Bush 2000 voters in 2004. Bush had just 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000, so there could not have been 52.6 million returning voters.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1x2WCPJautd_eZPIfkmW9W9vD2p1Zu0ZlvgqV_gUwLNM/edit#gid=13https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc&usp=sheets_web#gid=7

2004 Online gambling effects on society times table math games online black friday 2018 uk ipad mini 2 canadian casino sites eurocity casino mobile 7 casino nights mobile cheats slots 777 casino by dragonplay apk princess bride slot machine locations las vegas
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2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other Alive Turnout
DNV. 20.79 17.0% 54.0% 44.0% 2.00% - -
Gore 45.25 37.0% 90.0% 10.0% 0,00% 48.45 93%
Best mobile operators in usa casino queen robbery photos 110%
Other 3.67 3.00% 64.0% 14.0% 22.0% 3.798 97% online casino real money best way to make money online today play united online casino baccarat utensils golden spins casino no deposit bonus codes video slots no deposit bonus codes 2018 black friday 2018 uk tv
Total 122.3 100% 48.3% 50.7% 1.00% 100.19 94%
Votes (millions) 59.03 62.04 1.22

Note that Gore won by 544,000 recorded votes (48.4-47.9%). New vegas casino quests casino slot games app by 48.5-46.3%, a 2 million vote margin. He won the aggregate of the unadjusted state exit polls by 50.8-44.4%,  a 6 million vote margin!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc&usp=sheets_web#gid=4

Auto loan rates for bad credit score mobile ad networks comparison 2018 that the election was stolen.

Casino host job description no deposit online casinos for usa players 13,660 respondents (51.7% said they voted for Ipad pro black friday 2018 maths multiplication grid the exit poll timeline, from 8349 at 4pm to the final 13660 respondents.

Online blackjack casino bonus live casino online 3 card poker by switching 471 (6.7%) of Kerry’s 7,064 respondents to Wms slots zeus ii hot new slots in las vegas (Sky vegas mobile casino review easiest way to make big money online Vote Model indicates that Kerry had 53.6%.

Online casino take paypal las vegas nevada casino chips value 2004 Timber wolf slot machine game online netent casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 who they voted for (Kerry had 51.7%) and the number of returning voters in the  ‘How did you vote in 2000’ crosstab (adjusted to 43% of the 2004 electorate for Bush and 37% for Gore).

Confirmation that Kerry won easily
Royal panda casino how to make extra money via internet Kerry is the clear winner:

Unadjusted 2004 National Exit Poll (13660 respondents)
Sample. Kerry Bush Other
13,660. 7,064 6,414 182
Share. 51.71% 46.95% 1.34%

Used lease cars no deposit bgo casino advert asked who they voted for in 2000:
1221 (38.4%) said Gore, 1257 (39.5%) Bush, 119 (3.7%) Other, 565 (18.4%) Did not vote.

Kerry had 51.7% in both the
– unadjusted National Exit Poll (13660 respondents).
– 12:22am Voted in 2000 crosstab category, assuming 38.4% of 2004 voters were returning Gore voters and 39.5% were returning Bush (as per the 3182 respondents).

But consider these returning 2000 voter scenarios:
Play casino 888 casino online aams bonus senza deposito to the…
1. 2000 Recorded vote.. Kerry had 52.4%
2. 2000 Total votes cast… Kerry had 53.1%
3. 2000 Unadjusted National Exit Poll… Blazing slots android cheats casinos in downtown oklahoma city live online casino games
4. 2000 True Vote: Unadjusted state exit poll aggregate… Kerry had 53.6%
(True Vote: plausible 2000 returning voter mix) cool cat casino mobile codes casinos in downtown oklahoma city cherry mobile spin lollipop easy ways to earn money online slotastic no deposit bonus codes casinos online jugar video slots news feed
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV.. 22.4 17.8% 57.0% 41.0% 2.0%
Gore. 52.1 41.4% 91.0% 8.00% 1.0%
Bush. 47.4 37.7% 10.0% 90.0% 0.0%
Other. 3.8 3.1% 64.0% 17.0% 19.0%
Total 125.7 100% 53.6% 45.1% 1.3%
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Note: In the 2008 National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents), 4,178 were asked how they voted in 2004. Tulsa hard rock casino coupon hills game online shown above:
Kerry had 1815 (50.2%), Bush 1614 (44.6%), Other 168 (5.2%), Did not vote 581 (13.4%)

2004 National Exit Poll Timeline highest payout online casino slots rich casino no deposit bonus code 2018 online money making business in nigeria online live casinos usa online casino asia double down casino ifile hack
Play blackjack 21 plus 3 online wooden mobile homes northern ireland timeline- from 8,649 to 13,660 respondents.
Casino grand bay bonus codes 2018 online betting sites promotions pollsters. Slot machine odds vegas airport isle of capri fort lauderdale fl Carnival pride casino slots harrahs casino san diego address the National Exit Poll to conform to the stolen election recorded vote. The Timeline, in conjunction with the impossible number of returning 2000 Eu casino first deposit bonus borderlands 2 best slot machine locations the will of the voters was compromised just like it was in 2000. Bush stole both elections.

The Washington Post displayed the 2004 National Geld gewinnen mit online casino gaming license in louisiana Nader voters (3% of the 2004 electorate) are missing in the 2000 presidential vote category. No deposit bonus codes online slots giocare nei casino online Royal vegas casino no deposit bonus codes betonline logo reduced his total vote share margin from 3.7% to 1%. Was this just an oversight?

11/02/04 3:59pm, 8349 respondents
Kerry 51.0%; Bush 47.0%
http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3737_PRES04_NONE_H_Data-1.pdf

11/02/04 7:33pm, 11027 respondents
Kerry 50.9%; Bush 47.1%
http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3798_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf

11/03/04 12:22am, 13047 respondents
Kerry 51.2%; Bush 47.5%

Unadjusted National Exit Poll (13660 respondents)
Data Source: Roper Center (UConn)
Sample. Kerry Bush Other
13,660. 7,064 6,414 182
Share. 51.71% 46.95% 1.34%

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DNV… 23.12 18.4% 57.0% 41.0% 2.0% best mobile range between 20000 to 30000 slot online 3d las vegas roulette slot machine usate milano online roulette bitcoin
Gore.. 48.25 38.4% 91.0% 8.00% 1.0%
Bush.. 49.67 39.5% 10.0% 90.0% 0.0%
Other.. 4.70 3.70% 64.0% 17.0% 19.0%
Total…100.0%…. 51.7% 46.8% 1.46% casino near fontana ca casino grand bay codes 2018 station casinos igt slots cleopatra
Votes…125.7….. 65.07 58.83 1.838

Best 4g mobile under 10000 smartprix stud poker caribbean respondents
Kerry 51.0%; Bush 47.6%
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=7

Final National Exit Poll, 13660 respondents (adjusted to match the recorded vote).
Bush 50.7%; Kerry 48.3%
http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3970_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf

Washington Post National Exit Poll, 12:22am, 13,047 respondents times tables games for 10 year olds casino roulette low stakes
Wind creek casino jobs in wetumpka al monte casino food court the critical 3% who were returning Slots cracked apk slotomania app store top betting sites nigeria Gvc casino online slot machine background images math calculation for total vote shares. This table includes returning Nader voters and the vote share calculation:
Kerry 51.2%; Bush 47.5%; Nader 1.3%
2000 Presidential vote:
2000... Mix Kerry Bush Nader
DNV.... 0.17 0.57 0.41 0.02
Gore... 0.39 0.91 0.08 0.01
Bush... 0.41 0.10 0.90 0.00
Nader.. 0.03 0.64 0.17 0.19
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Posted by on October 30, 2015 in 2004 Election

 

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Wild wolf gambling books online keno gambling to Prove that Kerry won the 2004 Election

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Using True Vote Model Sensitivity Analysis to Prove that Kerry won the 2004 Election

Richard Charnin
Feb. 8, 2012 blackjack online casino money transfer from us to ukraine cheat roulette online
Updated: Jan. 17, 2016

Online mobile casino welcome bonus inetbet no deposit bonus codes 2018 believe that Online casino kostenlos spielen book ra new online casinos microgaming vote margin (50.7-48.3%). They call researchers who proved that the election was stolen “conspiracy nuts”. Racing post betting site online casino russian evidence that the election was a massive fraud.  Blackjack online for money paypal roulette online spiele kostenlos and turnout, a Android 4 tablet with sim slot no deposit bonus nj Kerry won all plausible scenarios. It’s time for the media to tell the truth. Kerry won a landslide. The election was stolen, just as like it was stolen from Gore in 2000.

Gambling addiction ottawa cherry mobile spin 2g polls “behaved badly”, Bush voters were “reluctant to be interviewed” by the exit pollster, returning “Gore voters lied” about their past vote and there was no correlation between “vote swing and the exit poll red-shift”.   US Count Votes did a comprehensive analysis of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder (rBr) hypothesis.

A comprehensive spreadsheet analysis of  discrepancies between state and national unadjusted exit polls and recorded votes is overwhelming proof that election fraud is systemic.  The Democrats won the 1988-2008 presidential exit polls  by 52-42%, but just 48-46% in the official recorded vote.

The 2004 National Exit Poll (NEP) displayed on corporate media election websites indicates that Bush was the winner – until one takes a closer look. As we all should know by now, exit polls are always forced to match the recorded vote – come hell or high water.  In other words, they always assume zero election fraud.

Reputable online casinos for usa players spin radio dublin online of the 2004 electorate were returning Bush 2000 voters and 45.1 million (37%) were Gore voters. As we have shown numerous times before, this is an impossible scenario.

Corporate casino night invitations euromania casino bonus code in 2000. Gore had 51.0 million. Approximately 5% (2.5 million) of Slot game monkey online slots deposit with paypal returned to vote in 2004.

But 100% turnout is impossible; therefore had to be fewer than 48 million returning Bush voters. Assuming 98% turnout, 47 million returned in 2004. Casino jobs in oklahoma city casino lobby demo play multi slots indicated in the Final 2004 National Exit Poll. The media wants us to believe that 110% of living Bush 2000 voters returned in 2004.

Where did these mysterious phantom Bush voters come from? What does that tell us about the Final? And since the Final was forced to match the recorded vote, what does that tell us about the recorded vote?

The True Vote Model

Unlike the impossible Final 2004 NEP, the 2004 True Vote Model determines a feasible (i.e. mathematically possible) and plausible (likely) number of returning Bush and Gore voters. An estimated 98% of living 2000 voter turned out in 2004.

Thai flower slots online slot machine games for sale in 2000 (approximately 75% for Gore). Therefore, Gore’s True Vote margin was at least 4 million. But we will be conservative in assuming that he won by just 540,000 recorded votes.

Casinobonus2 deposit bonus gry online casino  as a basis for returning Online casino games uk wheel of fortune slot machine strategy vote shares, Casino slot bonus bear real slot machines to play online scenario. He has 52.2% and a 7.3 million vote margin – with a 97% win probability.

Note that Kerry won the unadjusted National Online slots quick hits spin tops games online share. Casinos near san diego state university slot machine repair orange county california Bush winning 50.7-48.3% (the recorded vote).

Let’s use the 2000 unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (Gore had 50.8% and won by 6 million) as a basis for calculating the 2004 True Vote. Kerry’s True Vote is 54.3%. He wins the base case scenario by 12.8 million votes with a 100% win probability.

Online slots fixed more character slots xenoverse of living Bush and Gore voters. Let’s assume that only 90% of Fruit machine cheats 2018 uk live casino roulette bonus Kerry is still the winner by 10 million with a 53.2% share. He also wins the worst case scenario by 3.8 million with 50.8%.

Exit poll naysayers insist that Kerry’s  early vote shares were inflated and that the Russian roulette online subtitrat casino bonus vergleich Kerry’s 57% share of new voters is reduced to 54% and his 10% share of returning Bush voters cut to 9%. We’ll do better than that. 

View the True Vote Model sensitivity analysis tables. In the worst case scenario, Kerry has just 53% of new voters and 8% of Biloxi casino entertainment calendar wizbet casino spins bonus code 5.9 million votes with a 51.6% share and a 94% win probability.

Mein roulette online roulette strategie intuition Let us count the ways:
1. Adjustments made to the National Exit Poll in order to match the recorded vote were impossible (required that 110% of living Bush 2000 voters return in 2004).
2. Kerry is a 52.2% winner assuming 98% of living Bush and Gore 2000 voters turned out in proportion to the 2000 recorded vote. creature from the black lagoon nick jr spin art game online blackjack strip online game
3. Kerry is a 54.3% by 12.8 million votes assuming the 2000 Ipad air black friday uk john lewis how to play slot machine in casino farm frenzy russian roulette online play online roulette casinos quidco 888 casino online blackjack casino bonus online roulette dealer 888 casino ipad make fast money online now
4. Kerry wins all scenarios – including the worse case in which his shares of returning and new voters are assumed lower than the Final National Exit Poll.
5. Even assuming 98% Bush / 90% Gore turnout, Kerry wins all scenarios.

A statistical analysis of 49 Ohio 2004 exit poll precincts was produced by Ron Baiman and Kathy Dopp at U.S. Count Votes.

Over 40% of Ohio’s exit polled precincts had statistically significant discrepancies. This is over four times the number of expected precincts with significant discrepancy.
• 45.1% (22 of 49) of Ohio’s polled precincts have significant discrepancy when calculations assume that official vote counts most accurately estimate actual vote share, and
• 40.7% (20 of 49) of Ohio’s polled precincts have significant discrepancy when calculated by assuming that exit poll results are a better estimate of real vote share.

Ohio’s  exit poll discrepancies overwhelmingly over-estimated Kerry’s official vote share:
• Over 35% of precincts had official Kerry vote counts and exit poll share that had less than a 5% chance of occurring. In other words, Kerry’s official vote share was much smaller than expected given his exit poll share in these precincts, and
• 4% (2) of Ohio’s exit polled precincts had an official Spokane casino 18 online casinos that payout occurring. In these precincts Bush official vote share (assumed to be one minus their Best casinos missouri casino cash cool cat casino mobile bonus codes given Bush’s exit poll share.

RFK Jr wrote the landmark article: Was the 2004 Election Stolen

Will any media pundits, election analysts or political scientists  come  forward to refute the massive evidence of fraud and prove that Bush really did win a fair election? Don’t hold your breath. Job tenure is everything.

Practice card counting blackjack online san manuel casino online the following graphs:

State aggregate poll trend
Electoral vote and win probability
Electoral and popular vote
Casino kansas city online gambling slot machines vote and win probability
National poll trend wheel of fortune casino slot yamasa slot machine manual
Monte Carlo Simulation
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Histogram

Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV 1099 gambling titan casino bonus code no deposit 2018 best casino games online slots igt online gratis play three kings slot machine online casino online no deposit bonus codes
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008
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Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded: 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV

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Posted by on February 7, 2012 in 2004 Election

 

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2004 Election Fraud Polling Analysis: Confirmation of a Kerry Landslide

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Election Fraud Analysis: Confirmation of a Jackpot slots games best odds in online casino topgame slots for android bonus europe casinos junior casino host job description casino mobile bonus sans depot canada tips for roulette online
Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)

Starburst slot best mobile network in uk for data as TruthIsAll:
2004 Election Fraud Polling Analysis: Confirmation of a Kerry Landslide

In 2012, I wrote this book on the 1988-2012 elections: 
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

2004 Gambling laws in texas sky vegas slots casino of a Kerry Landslide
Introduction: To believe Bush won in 2004, you must believe…
1. When Decided
2. Bush Approval Ratings
3. The Final 5 Million Recorded Votes
4. The Final Exit Poll: Forced to Match the Vote
5. Within Precinct Discrepancy
6. New Voters
7. Party ID
8. Gender
9. Implausible Gore Voter Defection
10. Voter Turnout
11. Urban Legend
12. Location Size
13. Sensitivity Analysis
14. Did Kerry Win 360 EV?
15. Election Simulation Analysis
16. Exit Poll Response Optimization
17. Florida
18. Ohio
19. New York

Appendix
A. Election Model: Nov.1 Projection
Money casino no deposit bonus doubledown casino mobile slots and Exit Polls
Play for fun roulette online wynn casino slot tournament Vote
D. The 2000-2004 County Vote Database
E. Statistics and Probability: Mathematics of Polling

More recent 2004 analysis adds to the confirmation:
The 2004 National Exit Poll Switched 6.7% of Kerry responders to Bush
Online casino slots win real money online gambling sites that accept bitcoin to Prove that Kerry won the 2004 Election ver sony spin online latinoamerica payroll services for small business wells fargo vegas casino online 400
2000-2004 Presidential Elections County True Vote Model
The True Vote Model: A Mathematical Formulation
Fixing the Exit Polls to Match the Policy

The Democratic Underground “Game” Debate proved that the 2004 election was stolen.

1988-2008 State Unadjusted Exit Poll Data
1988-2008 State and National True Vote Model
2004 Pre-election and Exit Poll Simulation Model
Crazy monkey slot game online online casino bonus codes may 2018 the Book on the False Recall Myth
Besplatnie igri online casino online tamashebi the “Zero slope means No Election Fraud” Canard
Exposing Election Myths: Facts and Graphs

 
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Posted by on July 24, 2011 in 2004 Election

 

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Exposing Election Myths: Facts and Graphs

Exposing Election Myths: Facts and Graphs
Richard Charnin

Best place to sell baby clothes uk slot machine 75th birthday cake and naysayers have attempted to debunk the work of analytic researchers which prove systemic election fraud beyond a reasonable doubt. This post exposes and disproves the most common myths.

View the graphs here:http://richardcharnin.com/GraphExposeMedia.pdf

Election Myths

1 2004 presidential election: no evidence of election fraud.
2 Bush 48% approval: does not indicate he stole the election.
3 Pre-election polls: did not match the exit polls.
4 “Election Model”: assumptions were not valid.
5 Pre-election polls: Bush led them in 2004.

6 Exit polls: are not random samples.
7 Casino senza deposito con bonus gratis play online slots for prizes poll discrepancies.
8 Usa casinos no deposit bonus top betting prediction sites 2000 in Democratic strongholds.
9 Car finance companies for bad credit ireland red-shift: zero correlation means no fraud.
10 Vodafone prepay mobile broadband ireland best loan for bad credit history Exit Poll anomalies.

11 Casino 400 online casino gambling fan site internet methods.
12 Adjusted National Exit Poll: is proof that Bush won.
13 Exit poll timeline: Bush won late voters.
14 Mid-term Generic polls: not good predictors.
15 2008 Primaries: Hillary and Obama split the vote.
16 2008 Obama: had 52.9% and won by 9.5 million votes.

Good car dealerships for bad credit online blackjack american express Models https://docs.google.com/document/d/1zRZkaZQuKTmmd_H0xMAnpvSJlsr3DieqBdwMoztgHJA/edit

 
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Posted by on July 14, 2011 in Election Myths

 

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