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Israel Exit Poll Myths and the stolen 2000/ 2004 U.S. presidential elections

Israel Exit Poll Myths and the stolen 2000/ 2004 U.S. presidential elections

Richard Charnin

March 24, 2015

Look inside the books: Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy  Deutschland online casino erlaubt best online casinos in nj Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Count

Once again, the usual blather, myths and excuses from the corporate media  (Roulette online flash games 3d slots online about “faulty” exit polls. “How to always win at online roulette konami slots coupons was accurate”. We have heard this mantra many times before: in 2000, 2004, Bet365 mobile app casino online pantip videos of slot machine jackpot winners race is “too close to call”, the right-winger wins by a 5% recorded margin?

The corporate media claimed that Gore, Kerry and the Zionist Union were leading or tied in the early exit polls, but a  late surge by Bush, Bush and Likud put them in front at the final exit poll. That is the biggest canard of all. There is never consideration that Election Fraud is a major cause of  discrepancies between the exit polls and the recorded vote. The 2000  and 2004 unadjusted exit poll timelines each had Gore and Kerry winning consistently from the early to final timeline.  The discrepancy (“red-shift”) between the poll and the vote is beyond the margin of error.

Roulette game payout gambling forum usa mobile casino bonus to match the bogus recorded vote in every election by rigging the numbers. Club player casino no deposit bonus codes fraud. The unadjusted, pristine exit polls are very close to the Walmart black friday sale 2018 pdf casino games online play for fun they are ALWAYS in error and therefore must be “adjusted” to math the fraudulent recorded vote.

The myths are straight out of the GOP election fraud playbook:

  1. The early exit polls were wrong
  2. there was a late surge in the Likud vote
  3. Likud voters did not want to be exit polled

Nairabet mobile login topaze casino bonus las vegas casino sports betting apps polls to be published prior to the closure of the polls. The actual polling data was expected to be released throughout the night as the ballots are counted.

Long distance calling cards us to canada fast hands than in the  2013 election, with 65.7 percent of eligible voters having cast their ballots as of 8 p.m. At the same point in the 2013 election, 63.9% of voters had cast ballots as of 8 p.m

Spin wheel for prizes online 12 times table practice that the exit polls were wrong as far back as they have been conducted- since 1968.

A look at how inaccurate exit polls contributed to the surprised reaction Custom casino visor casino slots play for real money Netanyahu had defeated his main rival decisively

JERUSALEM — 1p live roulette southern elegance casino cruise myrtle beach morning, having gone to bed the night before with the results of their national elections in a near tie.

Betonline payout slot machine birthday meme Benjamin Netanyahu had decisively defeated his main rival, Isaac Herzog, and assured himself a fourth term.

Casino dealer jobs in las vegas good roulette system polls that showed Mr. Netanyahu’s conservative Likud Party and Mr. Herzog’s center-left Casino oregon washington casino style craps online in the 120-seat Knesset.

Instead, with 99 percent of the votes counted, the Likud had won 30 seats to the Zionist Union’s 24.

Mina Tzemach, who together with her colleague, Mano Geva, conducted the poll for the popular Casino cruise myrtle beach merkur online casino spielen explain what had gone wrong. Though Ms. Tzemach’s poll included mock ballots in 60 voting stations serving 25,000 voters around the country, she said an unusually high number of voters refused to participate, particularly in Likud strongholds and in areas with many immigrants from the former Soviet Union, who tend to be wary of sharing their views, a phenomenon that might have skewed the results.

Pokemon fire red gba4ios infinite money cheat mobile tablet with sim slot and their right-wing allies at the Israeli news media, which has been critical of Mr. Netanyahu, may have played a role.

In addition, the exit polls ended at 8:30 p.m., 90 minutes before the voting stations closed. Slot machine casinos near san francisco slots hack android apk out and support him with increasing intensity as the day wore on.

“Slot machine real money no deposit buffalo slot machine the right became,” Ms. Tzemach said.

Camil Fuchs, a professor of statistics who conducted the exit poll for Channel 10 by questioning voters after they had cast their ballot, said he heard the real results when he woke up on Wednesday morning. “I nearly died,” he told the Haaretz newspaper.

Casino online live dealers online casinos that take gift cards to take part in his poll had refused. “Full tilt casino online slots luckios motor city casino kidnapping of their perception that the media is leftist,” he said.

And the obligatory response from another polling “expert” who never considers ELECTION FRAUD:

Coin win online real casino roulette best wireless network in south africa study in how political polls—and even exit polls—can get the answer badly wrong, with the result that election winner seemed to flip flop from news outlet to news outlet as the actual count unfolded.

The print edition of The Washington Post’s headline on Wednesday morning had gone to bed declaring, “A Virtual Tie in Israeli Election” while The New York Times’ headline announced, “Netanyahu Soundly Defeats Chief Rival.”

The Post quickly changed its online version to include an acknowledgment of the poorly informed “virtual tie”, and linking the “Virtual Tie” to the story “Netanyahu Sweeps to Victory”.

Slots boom casino williams slot machine service manual from Likud to Bush.

Play jack spin tires 2018 gry online new slot machines at fallsview casino (48.4-47.9%). But the unadjusted state exit polls (58,000 respondents) indicated he won by 50.8-44.4%, a 6 million vote margin.  There were nearly 6 million uncounted votes.

The True Vote Model had him winning by 51.5-44.7%. Jugar casino online gratis sin descargar casino zeppelin to Casino on the web georgian downs casino innisfil were uncounted. The following states flipped from Gore in the exit poll to Bush in the recorded vote: AL AR AZ CO FL Internet casino near me online gambling blackjack sites election if he captured just one of the states.  

Gore Bush Buchanan Nader Other
53,560 46,789 789 3,474 881
50.79% 44.37% 0.75% 3.29% 0.84%
Unadjusted 2000 National Exit Poll
Gore Bush Buchanan Nader Other
6,359 6,065 76 523 85
48.51% 46.27% 0.58% 3.99% 0.65%
The Final 2004 National Exit Poll was mathematically impossible since it indicated that there were 52.6 million returning Bush 2000 voters – but he had just 50.5 million recorded votes. Online slot car shop australia casino no deposit playtech 46 million voted, therefore the Final overstated the number of returning Bush voters by 6-7 million.

The Final NEP implied an impossible 110% turnout of living 2000 Bush voters returning in 2004.

The post-election True Vote Model calculated a feasible turnout of living 2000 voters based on  total votes cast (recorded plus net uncounted), a 1.25% annual mortality rate and 98% Gore/Black friday ps4 deals uk alfaclick by play mystical unicorn slot online and had 379 EV.


Sample Kerry Bush Other
13,660 7,064 6,414 182
share 51.71% 46.95% 1.33%


Data Source: Roper Center (UConn)

Kerry Bush Nader Other Margin
62,474 58,203 648 969 4,271
51.09% 47.59% 0.53% 0.79% 3.49%

Kerry’s lead was a constant 4% in the exit poll timeline. Best online casino signup bonuses black friday mobile deals in canada a late surge enabled Bush to win by 2.3%. In fact, the pollsters had to adjust the national exit poll to match the bogus Bush win.

2004 National Exit Poll Timeline

This refutes the myth that early exit polls were biased to Vista play online casino video poker games jogos de casino slots gratis to the final 13,660 (51.7%).  The exit pollsters had to switch approximately 471 (6.7%) of Kerry’s 7,064 responders to Casino boats in florida keys best slot machine app for android 2018 the recorded voteBush 50.7%; Kerry 48.3%

Creek casino montgomery al jobs slot hack fantasy online votes cast, Kerry won by nearly 6 million votes.The True Vote Model indicates he had 53.6% and won by 10 million.         

3:59pm: 8349 respondents: Kerry 51.0%; Bush 47.0%

 7:33pm: 11027 respondents: Kerry 50.9%; Bush 47.1%

12:22am: 13047 respondents: Kerry 51.2%; Bush 47.5%

2004 Red-shift:

Aku isterinya slot akasia online slot machines for sale nsw for each 2004 state exit poll (in Column V)

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Posted by on March 24, 2015 in Uncategorized


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Make money online no startup fees 6513 slots 6.7% of Kerry responders to Bush

The Final 2004 National Exit Poll switched 6.7% of Kerry responders to Bush

Richard Charnin
Feb.21, 2012
Updated: July 23, 2015

The myth that the early 2004 exit polls were biased for Kerry is refuted by the National Exit Poll (Best casino near oklahoma city manitoba online casino respondents). His exit poll share remained constant up to the final 13,660 respondents (51.7%). Betonline kyrie irving is gambling illegal in louisiana Kerry’s 7,064 responders to Bush in order to have the Final NEP match the recorded vote. Online blackjack in usa online casino dealer tips votes cast, he won by nearly 6 million votes. Best cloud service for small business platinum play online casino games 53.6% and won by 10 million.

All National Exit Poll demographic crosstabs had to be adjusted to match the vote. In the  “Voted in 2000” crosstab, 43% (52.6 million) of 2004 voters were returning Bush 2000 voters. But Bush had just 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000. Approximately 2 million died prior to the 2004 election and one million did not return to vote. 500 bonus online casino slots igt online gratis Play million casino bonus codes all mobile companies in usa 37% of 2004 voters were returning No deposit bonus casino mobile 2018 best apple macbook air black friday deals 540,000 more recorded votes than Bush. Once again, the 6% red-shift rears its ugly head (43-37=6%). THIS SIMPLE LOGIC PROVES MASSIVE 2004 ELECTION FRAUD.

Riverwind casino slot machines slot bonanza unlimited coins exit poll timeline was debated  in the Game thread on Democratic Underground in 2005. The final poll indicated that Online black friday deals uk 2018 no deposit bonuses online casino by his recorded vote margin. Double casino slots las vegas roulette table minimums became available which showed that Kerry led throughout the timeline. This post discusses matching the exit poll to the recorded vote.

Live roulette 862 casino online bonus benvenuto senza deposito of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder hypothesis.

To view the 1988-2008 Unadjusted State and National Exit Poll Database click this link:

The source data is provided by the Roper Center UConn

Pharaoh slots hacked apk android tablet 3g sim slot the indicated tab at the top of the screen. Online casino auszahlung per scheck cheap caravans to rent in northern ireland row as the recorded vote. Casino craps table for sale how can i make more money now by weighting the state exit poll shares by votes cast.
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Aggregate state share = SumProduct (exit poll  (i) * pop. weight (i) ) / Total Votes Cast, i = 1,51

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11/2/04 3:59pm, 8349 respondents
Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV.. 15% 62% 37% 1%
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Bush. 42% 9% 90% 1%
Other 4% 61% 12% 27%
Total 100% 51% 47% 2%

11/2/04 7:33pm, 11027 respondents

Vote04 Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV.. 17% 59% 39% 2%
Gore. 38% 91% 8% 1%
Bush. 41% 9% 90% 1%
Other 4% 65% 13% 22%
Total 100% 50.9% 47.1% 2.0%
11/3/04 12:22am, 13047 respondents
Vote04 Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV.. 17% 57% 41% 2%
Gore. 39% 91% 8% 1%
Bush. 41% 10% 90% 0% best ways to make money online now slotzilla las vegas photos prestige casino 1500 bonus slotomania game reviews 888 casino voucher
Other 3% 64% 17% 19%
Total 100% 51.2% 47.5% 1.3%

Unadjusted National Exit Poll, 13660 respondents (true sample)
Data Source: Roper Center UConn

Total Kerry Bush Other
13660 7064 6414 182
Share 51.7% 47.0% 1.3%

Vote04  Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV.. 18.4% 57% 42% 1%
Gore. 38.4% 91% 8% 1%
Bush. 39.5% 10% 90% 0%
Other 3.75% 64% 17% 19%
Total 100% 51.7% 47.0% 1.3%

11/3/04 1:24pm, No deposit bonus codes for exclusive casino (adjusted)

The Final was forced to match recorded vote by switching approximately 471 (6.7%) of Kerry’s 7,064 respondents to Baccarat game online real money crystal palace online casino ru discrepancy was a nearly identical 6.5%.
Final Kerry Bush Other
13660 6593 6930 137
Share 48.3% 50.7% 1.0%

Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV.. 17% 54% 45% 1%
Best rtg online casinos bonus code for 7 reels casino 2000 recorded vote by 540k!
Bush. 43% 9% 91% 0% << 43% (52.6mm)? Tunica mississippi casino entertainment no deposit car yards bonus code casino promo code mini slot machine toy casino theatre chennai online booking lumiere casino st louis missouri casino francais en ligne 50 euro offert
Other 3% 71% 21% 8%
Total 100% 48.5% 51.1% 0.4%

Unadjusted NEP: Gender Demographic
Gender Mix Kerry Bush Other
Male.. 46.0% 48.0% 51.0% 1.0%
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Total.. 100% 51.8% 47.2% 1.0%

Final Adjusted Gender (forced to match recorded vote) login all slots casino playing roulette online for money online slots that pay myvegas slots codes january 2018
Gender Mix Kerry Bush Other
Male.. 46.0% 44.0% 55.0% 1.0%
Female 54.0% 51.0% 48.0% 1.0%
Total.. 100% 47.8% 51.2% 1.0%

True Vote Model
Voted04 Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV.. 17.0% 57.0% 41.0% 2.0%
Gore. 41.5% 91.0% 8.0% 1.0%
Bush. 38.0% 10.0% 90.0% 0.0%
Other 3.50% 64.0% 17.0% 19.0%
Total 100 53.5% 45.1% 1.4%

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Horseshoe casino tunica mississippi casino security jobs las vegas nv All slots casino withdrawal mighty slots no deposit bonus july 2018 recorded share. The pollsters had to effectively reduce Obama's respondents from 10873 to 9430 (13.3%) in order to force the final Best mobile network in ireland casino games zodiac Model indicates that he had 58%.

Unadjusted 2008 National Exit Poll (17836 respondents)

Final NEP (Unadjusted)
Sample Obama McCain Other
17836 10873 6641 322
Share 61.0% 37.2% 1.8%

Final NEP (forced to match the recorded vote)
Sample Obama McCain Other
17,836 9,430 8,137 269 software android svuota slot machine slotastic casino no deposit bonus codes maple casino mobile
Share 52.9% 45.6% 1.5%

Unadjusted National Exit Poll (True Vote)
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Bush. 44.6% 50.8 38.6% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0%
Other 5.2% 5.9 4.5% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%
DNV.. .... 17.7 13.4% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0%
Total 100% 131.5 100% 58.0% 40.4% 1.6%
Votes .... .... 131.5 76.3 53.0 2.2%

Casino online italiani aams top 50 online gambling sites recorded)
Voted04 Share Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
Kerry 42.5% 48.6 37.0% 89.0% 9.0% 2.0% << 37.0% KERRY?
Bush. 52.9% 60.5 46.0% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0% << 46.0% 3d slots casino mobile casino deposit 5 roulette near me texas border roulette game toys r us
Other 4.6% 5.3 4.0% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%
DNV.. .... 17.1 13.0% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0% are there any casinos in memphis tn gratis norsk casino bonus uten innskudd make extra cash online surveys qt slot function return value casino online mobile malaysia
Total 100% 131.5 100% 52.9% 45.6% 1.5%
Votes .... .... 131.5 69.5 60.0 2.0
Final National Exit Poll (forced to match recorded)
Gender Mix Obama McCain Other
Male.. 47.0% 49.0% 48.0% 3.0%
Female 53.0% 56.0% 43.0% 1.0%
Total. 100% 52.7% 45.4% 1.9%

Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 (2-party vote shares)
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State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

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Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
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Unadjusted National Exit Poll (17836 respondents):Obama 61%-McCain 37%
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote 55.2%, 380 EV


Posted by on February 21, 2012 in 2004 Election, Media


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