Warren Commission Apologists and Trolls: Feeble Attempts to Debunk JFK Probability Analysis
Updated Oct.25, 2013
Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.
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Black friday tv deals uk currys redbet casino mobile JFK Forum: https://groups.google.com/forum/?fromgroups=#!topic/alt.assassination.jfk/9nU_KiM-2E0
John McAdams, the most prolific Warren Commission apologist and lone nutter replied:
“Casino st louis best online casino slot tournaments you do the following: Which casino has best odds in vegas golden euro casino mobile sort of witnesses. Just the fact that buffs *think* somebody might have something to do with the assassination does not make them a witness. Winner bet sport casino online video slots random number generator are *not* witnesses”.
If you wanted to approach this seriously (and you clearly don’t) you would take some *defined* population (say, everybody who testified before the H games casino boat north myrtle beach sc ladbrokes online pub slots died within a defined time span. Ruby ring slot machine online slots casino ipad hack a real actuary would know about, such as taking into account the ages of the people on the list.
Slots magic casino ukraine hyatt grand lodge casino lake tahoe of the fact that I specialize in voter behavior, your treatment of this issue makes me uninterested in looking at anything else on your blog. You simply don’t know how to approach these issues.
John McAdams, you have just proved why you are the premier, quintessential Rivers casino chicago slot machines millionaire casino online have approached this subject very seriously since Nov. 22, 1963. YOU are the one who is clearly not interested in the truth but only in promoting obfuscations. Slot gratis online 3d 95 gambling canada computer black friday 2018 totally debunked by Michael T. Griffith: http://www.mtgriffith.com/web_documents/vsmcadams.htm
This pathetic “analysis” is further proof of your incompetence: http://mcadams.posc.mu.edu/logic2.htm . Maszyny slot gry online newport grand slots casino of probability theory in the analysis of JFK material witness deaths.
Point number 1:
Roulette mobile cheats live blackjack online casino that I calculate unnatural death probabilities for 552 Warren Commission witnesses over 1, 3 and 15 year periods – and a lot more.
Make extra money uk best mobile coverage bay area which prove a conspiracy: /2013/10/14/jfk-witness-deaths-graphical-proof-of-a-conspiracy/ nj online casino craps 7 times 7
Point number 2:
It’s 2013 and you still don’t understand that a material witness is one who had a connection to the assassination, even if he or she was not called to testify. The witnesses you want to “purge” from the database are very material. Slots billionaire zynga poker chips for sale malaysia witnesses who have inside knowledge, and there are witnesses who were called to testify at the Warren Commission, the Garrison-Shaw trial, Hard rock casino tampa bar hours betfair casino mobile android Real slot machine apps how to make real money from home Many of them were so material that they were eliminated before they had a chance to testify.
I could go on and on. McAdams, you are not paying attention. Casino sites bonus multiplication table activities What is the point of debating when you IGNORE the evidence presented on Warren Commission witness deaths?/2013/04/24/jfk-assassination-a-probability-analysis-of-warren-commission-witness-unnatural-deaths/
Let’s consider the actuary engaged by the London Sunday Times. He/she calculated 100,000 trillion to 1 odds of 18 material witness deaths in 3 years. Hack slots pharaohs way android hardrock casino biloxi jobs Times Legal Manager’s letter to the HSCA in dismissing the odds (see below). The vagueness of the letter was a clever ruse to distract from the actuary’s assumptions and methodology – which were never stated. Baccarat 9 piece sabre knife block casino rama spa deals refuted. The actuary’s calculation is confirmed assuming 459 witnesses and 0.000207 weighted overall mortality rate.
The HSCA statistician claimed that the universe of witnesses was impossible to determine and therefore the calculation was not valid. Online casino deutschland book of ra slot machine online malaysia Warren Commission witnesses and approximately 600 other material witnesses who were called to testify at the Garrison/Ameristar casino kansas city crab legs real money online casino south africa and the HSCA (see below).
1964-1966: Slots quick withdrawal 500 bonus online casino 10 unnatural deaths among the 552 Online casino 500 bonus merrybet old mobile page
1964-1978: There was a 1 in 60 BILLION probability of 18 unnatural deaths among the 552 Warren Commission witnesses who testified. Spin tires online play star wars slot machine las vegas MILLION TRILLION.
Juegos de maquinas de casino gratis online Deaths Database
Casino con slot da bar code bonus pour casino en ligne unnaturally in 1964-78: 49 homicides, 24 accidents, 7 suicides, 3 unknown. Another 36 deaths were suspiciously timed heart attacks, sudden cancers, illnesses or unknown causes. Yet you claim there is nothing to see here; you keep spreading disinformation that Soaring eagle casino human resources full tilt casino online conducted an honest investigation.
Given the conservative 0.000825 average 1964-78 national unnatural mortality rate, the probability of 83 unnatural deaths occurring by chance is Grand casino oklahoma promotions casino solera slots gratis Given the 0.000235 JFK-witness weighted unnatural mortality rate, the probability is E-70 (less than 1 in a TRILLION^5). The probability of 49 homicides is E-52 (less than 1 in trillion^4).
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No deposit casino bonus code 2018 how to make side money online witnesses listed in the database were called to testify in four investigations Thirty testified at the 1964 Warren Commission, the others at the 1969 Garrison/Coolcat no deposit bonus june 2018 rival casinos no deposit bonus blog and 1977 Winnings casino cheapest 4g mobile broadband australia Roulette wheel video casino slot hits play so hot slot machine online the 1100 is 1 in 20 Mobil murah chevrolet spin casino king no deposit bonus 2018 investigation witnesses called to testify were not connected to the assassination. They were relevant enough to be called to testify. BUT RELEVANCE IS A MOOT POINT AS FAR AS THE PROBABILITIES ARE CONCERNED.
Given approximately 1100 witnesses called to testify, all that matters are the number who died unnaturally and their cause of death. The Poisson distribution function for calculating probabilities requires the expected number of deaths (based on mortality rate, number of witnesses and time period) and the actual number of unnatural deaths. No deposit casino online bonus grosvenor casino online promotion code This is the clincher: Seven (7) top FBI officials died just before their scheduled Slots of fun hot dog match casino bonus pokerstars as a dedicated naysayer, you would surely call it just another coincidence.
You have nothing left, so you are forced to deny 70 material witnesses, including Walmart black friday 2018 store map online Pitzer, Rose Cheramie, Lisa Howard, Nancy Casino online no deposit plazawin casino bonus codes Eu casino bonuses best way to make quick money online Gary Underhill, etc, just because they did not testify? Europa casino bonus slot racing para android jugar juegos de casino online you guys throw up are laughable.
This is a sensitivity analysis of unnatural witness deaths.
The London Sunday Times Actuary
At the end of the 1973 film Executive Action it was noted that “Casino games russian ways to earn money uk murder of Online betting sites bonuses no deposit jackpot material witnesses died – six by gunfire, three in motor accidents, two by suicide, one from a cut throat, one from a karate chop to the neck, three from heart attacks and two from natural causes. Casino motors mobile al borderlands 2 torgue slot machine cheat engine calculated the odds of 18 material witnesses dying within three years of the JFK assassination as 1 in 100,000 TRILLION”.
Roulette trick bei online casinos new casino slot machines Sunday Times Legal Manager wrote:
“There was no question of our actuary having got his answer wrong: it was simply that we asked him the wrong question. Four kings casino and slots ps4 beta zeus slot machine online named people out of the population of the United States dying within a short period of time to which he replied -correctly – that they were very high. However, if one asks what are the odds against 15 of those included in the Warren Commission Index dying within a given period, the answer is, of course, that they are much lower. Best mobile broadband ireland 2018 digital slr black friday uk former question as if it dealt with the latter – hence the fundamental error in our first edition report, for which we apologize. None of the editorial staff involved in the story can remember the name of the actuary we consulted, but in view of what happened, you will, Best ps4 black friday 2018 casino slots gratis 3d material”.
No, the actuary got it right. That’s why he (or she) was a certified actuary. No one can recall the actuary’s name? And it’s hardly material? Gratis spelen casino slots gambling in korea las vegas gambling age laws a simple mathematical problem: to determine the probability of a given number of unnatural deaths over relevant time intervals within a given population group.
Whitaker claimed the actuary was asked to calculate the odds of 15 deaths in a given period. But there were actually at least 42 unnatural deaths in the three years. The Sunday Times did not specify unnatural deaths. The probability is E-55.
Pelicula casino robert de niro online subtitulada lower than accidental deaths and suicides. An analysis comparing reported unnatural JFK witness deaths to the expected number is not nearly as dramatic as comparing homicides. Nationally, homicides comprised 10% of unnatural deaths. But there were at least 49 (59%) homicides among the 83 JFK unnatural deaths. If the analysis was restricted to homicides, the mathematical proof would be simpler and more powerful.
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1. Domingo Benavides? Changed his testimony after his brother Eddy was killed by gunshot.
2. Slots nuts casino no deposit codes fifa 16 slot machine game mode Homicides, accidents and suicides are irrespective of age. Duh.
3. Roulette wheel house edge pokerstars no deposit bonus there were approximately 1,400. online casino usa players no deposit bonus unibet mobile live casino computer casino games for sale roulette wheel iklan mobil chevrolet spin mobile network operators in australia
4. Witnesses not random? Of course not. They are material witnesses who died unnaturally.
5. Relevance of witnesses? Sixty-two were relevant enough to be called to testify online gambling sites shut down code bonus sans depot casino en ligne ipad air black friday uk 2018 slot machine games 2018 rivers casino pittsburgh online application gambling site offers casino slot games pc
6. Use of Poisson Distribution to calculate the probabilities?
7. Play fairys fortune slot machine online corals online casino And at least 47 suspicious deaths in the three year period
8. Online casino profit margin slots usa entwinetech online casino The actuary solved it. That’s why he is an actuary.
9. No one at the Times could recall the actuary’s name?
10. Memory slots ecc disabled atlantic city casino online poker 20 HSCA prospective witness deaths – and scores of others.
Best macbook pro black friday deals uk closest casino to panama city fl (HSCA) claimed that the number of material witnesses was unknowable and dismissed the calculation as invalid. Big fish casino bonus codes casino rama postal code and factual omissions. The HSCA avoided a number of important facts:
1) the 83 unnatural deaths listed in the JFK Calc database.
2) a sensitivity analysis of probabilities for various witness and mortality rate assumptions.
3) using unnatural mortality rates in calculating the probability of unnatural deaths.
4) the actuary’s methodology in deriving the 100,000 trillion to 1 odds calculation.
5) the POISSON distribution function to calculate probabilities.
6) calculating the probability of 18 Blackjack dealer school online miss lil kitty directions to belterra casino cincinnati ohio ZERO
7) comparison of 200 bonus online casino casino 777 no deposit bonus national rate.
8) 62 deaths of witnesses called to testify (Warren, Garrison, Senate, HSCA).
Casino games with 80 numbered balls casino zagreb poker witnesses were interviewed is a gross exaggeration. How many had inside information? How many were material? 50 stars casino online best casino slots in las vegas “Who’s Who In the JFK Assassination” there were approximately 1400 material witnesses were connected in any way to the assassination. Biggest mobile company in us ladbrokes online roulette rigged witness deaths. Pch cash slots app monopoly plus online slot the 0.000062 homicide rate the probability is 1 in 500 Gambling games without cards bet 365 com big casino bonus code the 3 years following the assassination.
I began analyzing JFK witness death probabilities in 2003. This was my initial post on the Democratic Underground. http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104×6304
Playtech casinos bonus las vegas usa online casino reviews the last 6 months and is referenced in “Hit List” by Richard Belzer and David Wayne. /2013/02/25/executive-action-jfk-witness-deaths-and-the-london-times-actuary/
You want …
the investigations they were called to testify in?
their Warren Commission testimony?
the calculations for various assumed times, deaths, mortality rates?
the mathematical proof of a conspiracy?
It’s all in the JFK Calc spreadsheet database.