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Jan. 28, 2016
Election Models indicate that the 2014 North Carolina senate election was likely stolen.
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I. True Vote Model
Given: Obama lost NC in 2012 by 92,000 recorded votes (50.4-48.4%).
Hagan wins by 17,000 votes (48.5-47.9%)
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Hagan wins by 155,000 votes (50.9-45.5%)
Base Case Assumptions
Assume Obama won in 2012 by 51.4-47.4%.
1) 60% turnout of Obama and Romney voters,
2) Hagan had 92% of returning Obama voters
3) Willis had 90% of Romney voters
4) Hagan had 47% and Willis 45% of voters who did not vote in 2012.
Hagan wins by 155,000 votes: 50.9-45.9%
Sensitivity analysis I: Returning vote shares
Worst case scenario: Hagan has 88% of returning Obama and 5% of Romney voters.
Hagan loses by 4,000 votes with 48.1%.
Best case scenario: Hagan has 96% of Obama and 9% of Romney voters.
Hagan wins by 314,000 votes with 53.6%.
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Worst case scenario: 58% of Obama and 62% of Romney voters return in 2014.
Hagan wins by 81,000 votes with 49.6%.
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Hagan wins by 230,000 votes with 52.1%.
II. Voter Turnout Model
Party registration: Democrats 41.7%- Republicans 30.4%- Independents 27.8%
Exit Poll Party-ID: Democrats 36.0%- Republicans 35.0%- Independents 29.0%
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Party Registration split
61% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans turned out.
Hagan wins by 50.9-45.4% (161,000 votes).
III. Uncounted Vote Model
Given: 260,000 of 3.17 million votes cast were uncounted.
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Hagan wins by 206,000 votes (51.6-45.1%)
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