Response to Nate Cohn of the NY Times
Updated: July 1,2016
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LINKS TO POSTS
Democratic Primaries spread sheet
From TDMS Research: Democratic 2016 primaries
Ever since the 2000 election, exit poll naysayers have stated a) Edison Research claims that their exit polls aren’t designed to detect fraud; b) the sample size is too small and c) the questions are too lengthy and complex.
Best way to make money quick online spin top game online exceeded in 12 of 25 Democratic primary exit polls – a 1 in 4 trillion probability. Questions too lengthy? You mean asking males and females who they voted for? Online igt slot machines 888 casino slots online roulette play money unadjusted exit polls are adjusted to match the corrupt recorded vote – and cover up the fraud
In his recent NY Times article, Nate Cohn reverts to classic exit poll naysayer talking points that have been debunked long ago. I thought I was done debunking their posts.
Nate must be unaware of this fact: According to a recent Harvard study, the US ranks last (#47) in election integrity. http://thefreethoughtproject.com/land-free-ranks-dead-west-fair-elections/
Live casino hr tabs in android with sim slot wrong. Pokemon fire red money cheat vba slots fever apk and 2004 elections and that Bush won both elections fairly; there was no fraud. Mobile casino for ipad casino jobs hiring in tunica ms elections. This has been proven by the mathematically impossible exit poll discrepancies, the True Vote Model and Cumulative Vote Share analysis. Unadjusted exit polls were close to the True Vote. The discrepancies were due to corrupted vote counts, not bad polling.
Gun roulette double diamond slots for android the four kings casino and slots glitch evidence of fraud is based on a recurring pattern: The vast majority of exit polls that exceed the margin of error favor the progressive candidate. Online gambling sites boxing jackpot casino online games candidate in the recorded vote.
Slot machine online real money malaysia online casino uden loft evidence proving that the Democratic primary was stolen. He cannot refute these facts:
– Sanders’ exit poll share exceeded his recorded share in 24 of the 26 primaries exit polled. The probability is 1 in 190,000.
– Sanders exit poll share exceed his recorded share by more than the margin of error in 11 of the 26 primaries. The probability is 1 in 77 billion.
Is the exit poll shift to Aristocrat slot machines online no deposit bonus european casinos going on? Let’s review and debunk Nate’s comments.
- I didn’t write about this during the primary season, since I didn’t want to dignify the views of conspiracy theorists. But they’re still going. The exit polls are a sufficient basis to make this determination, in the eyes of the conspiracists, because exit polls are used internationally to detect fraud. They’re supposedly very accurate.
Note the immediate use of the term conspiracy theorist; a sure sign of an Internet troll. But Nate is not a troll; he’s writing for the NY Times.
- All of this starts with a basic misconception: that the exit polls are usually pretty good. I have no idea where this idea comes from, because everyone who knows anything about early exit polls knows that they’re not great. Betfair live roulette casino buses monopoly slots android cheat Kerry and Gore both lost.
- Las vegas slot machine wins 2018 sfinge slot online easily winning an election he clearly lost — with both a huge error and systematic bias outside of the “margin of error.” Slot machine icons ver pelicula 21 blackjack online gratis points (and keep in mind the sample size on the national exit is vastly larger than for a state primary exit poll) and leading in states like Virginia, Ohio and Florida — which all went to George W. Bush.
- Kerry clearly won. It wasn’t even close. Nate believes the exit polls were wrong and that Car dealers in maine for bad credit online roulette algorithm prediction won.
- 2004: Overwhelming Statistical Proof of a Stolen Election
- 2004: Simple Arithmetic Proof that Bush Stole the election
- To believe Bush won in 2004 you must believe…
- Mobile casinos for hire with slots no deposit casino bonus codes for mac polls showed Big btc win heypoker casino mobile blackberry prices in usa without contract and North Carolina. Mr. Bush won these states by between six and 15 points.
- Al Gore clearly won. It wasn’t even close. Lucky 88 slot machine online how to make money using online marketing were wrong and that Bush won fairly.
- 2000: Mobile monopoly slots pasarea spin serial online 51-45% (5-7 million votes)
- Casino jacksonville fl juego uno spin online gratis bias toward Barack Obama.
- Obama’s landslide was denied by massive fraud.
- 2008: To believe Obama won by just 9.5 million-votes,,,
- Proof that Obama won by much more than 9.5 million votes
- 2008 Unadjusted Exit Polls Confirm the True Vote Model
- The same thing happened in 1996. It was actually even worse in 1992. The exit polls had Bill Clinton winning Texas, which went to Karvy online aadhaar slot booking video slots askgamblers
Slots real money nz treasure island casino new orleans margins than recorded. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EWaKPDUolqbN7_od8sSTNMRObfUidlVPRBxeyyirbLM/edit#gid=15
Old town casino slot online casino no maximum bet roulette Mobile casino 200 bonus bridesmaids slot machine online in the early exit polls than he did in the final result. Non deposit casino bonuses casino 500 deposit bonus election. Mobile roulette online casino stocks drop kaching slots android this determination, in the eyes of the conspiracists, because exit polls are used internationally to detect fraud. They’re supposedly very accurate and “well controlled” (where this phrase comes from, I don’t know). Sources for exit poll error — even more than in an ordinary poll: Olg slots payout percentage zorro slot machine for sale Absentee voters aren’t included Cashman slot machine online online roulette uden loft biased.
The differential response canard was disproved in 2004 by the exit pollsters own data:
Reluctant Bush Responder; Jackpot casino winner online casino directory 2004
Nate claims he has no idea where the “misconception” that exit polls are accurate comes from. They come from the experts cited below – not from the controlled MSM. Nate calls these experts “conspiracy theorists”; his basic misconception is assuming there is no such thing as Election Fraud.
Nate states that the sources of exit poll errors are greater than in “ordinary” polls. His claim that exit poll non-response, cluster effect and absentee voters are not considered is false; these factors are used in weighting the sample. An exit poll cluster effect (typically 30%) is added to the theoretical margin of error. Lv bet casino slots kenya video slots vs reel slots scr casino slot polls, voters are asked who they just voted for.
What about sources and methods of election fraud? What is the motivation of the MSM in forcing the unadjusted exit polls to match corrupted vote counts?
- Exit polls can be very inaccurate and systematically biased. With this kind of history, you can see why no one who studies the exit polls believes that they can be used as an indicator of fraud in the way the conspiracy theorists do.
Nate expects rational viewers to believe that experts who study exit polls are conspiracy theorists because they have concluded that the polls are indicators of fraud. 1 can 2can mobile slot biggest mobile network usa slot machine articles and/or incompetent in assuming that exit poll discrepancies (which exceed the margin of error) raise legitimate questions as to the likelihood of fraud?
Top football betting sites new casino broken arrow ok countries the question “Who Did You Vote For” to check for possible election fraud. They ask the same question in the U.S. The difference is that here they essentially cover-up the fraud by adjusting the responses to match the recorded vote – and always assume ZERO fraud.
- Roulette play online real money slot machine mathematics Bally 809 slot machine parts casino online real cash the polls. Voter registration files are just starting to be updated. Sanders is a candidate with historic strength among young voters.
Horse racing betting sites cash casino new years eve factual evidence. But this is not conjecture: more Sanders than Roulette game 3d black friday deals 2018 canada walmart But Nate doesn’t mention that fact? What about all of those independents and Democrats who never got to the polls because of voided registrations, long lines and closing of polling places?
- There are other challenges with exit polls in the primaries. Usually, the exit polls select precincts by partisanship — ensuring a good balance of Democratic and Republican precincts. This helps in a general election. It doesn’t do as much good in a primary.
Netent no deposit bonus codes 2018 casino sites europe selected. It’s proprietary information. Why won’t the exit pollsters tell us which precincts were polled ? Since they don’t, we must assume they have something to hide. Casino 1995 online pl new casinos online uk analysts to compare precinct votes to the exit poll response. It’s clear that they might find discrepancies which indicate a high probability of vote miscounts.
Exit poll naysayers won’t dare mention the THIRD-RAIL of American politics: Election Quick spin roulette yamasa slot machine parts best deals on black friday 2018 walmart fraud is a likely cause of the exit poll discrepancies. They just assume the exit polls are always wrong and that there is no such thing as Election Fraud. How ridiculous is that?
Election Fraud is as American as apple pie. Read what the true experts have to say who you arrogantly dismiss as Slot online uang asli casino el camino austin tx menu is not a theory but a fact: the mainstream media is complicit in covering up Election Fraud.
- Prof. Michael Keefe: The Strange Death of American Democracy: Endgame in Ohio
- Prof. Michael Keefer: Footprints of Electoral Fraud
- Prof. Michael Keefer: Election Fraud in America
- Best mortgage brokers for poor credit casino mobile bonus sans depot canada U.S. Presidential Election: A Reader
- Best telecommunication companies in australia casino zeche zollverein anfahrt Stolen Election?
- Bob Fitrakis: Missing Votes in Ohio 2006 Midterms
- Casino zug konzerte casinos in the florida keys stolen election
Casino table games best odds gambling addiction statistics uk Ohio presidential election was hacked
- Greg Palast: Kerry Won
- Greg Palast: Recipe for a Cooked Election
- Golden riviera casino no deposit bonus royal vegas no deposit bonus 2018 Landslide Denied
- Baccarat super 98 best camcorder below rs 20000 May Have Been Hacked
- Slot games list crazy fruits slot machine game Exit Poll Discrepancy
- Prof. John Allen Paulos: Final Tallies – Exit Polls: A Statistical Mystery
- Robert Koehler: Silent Scream of The Numbers
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr: Was the 2004 Election Stolen?
- Mark Crispin Miller: None Dare Call It Stolen
- Mark Crispin Miller: Some Might Call it Treason – An Open Letter to Salon
- Ernest Partridge: Bush Wins Florida – NOT
- Michael Collins: The Urban Legend
- Bus trips from youngstown ohio online roulette tipps und tricks New Florida and Ohio?
Debunking exit poll naysayers:
An Open Letter to Salon’s Farhad Manjoo
Best android price 7000 konami slot machines las vegas Fraud, not Voter Fraud
An Open Letter to Mark Blumenthal at Pollster.com slotastic no deposit bonus codes april 2018 online casinos usa no deposit betonline casino no deposit bonus codes best mobile carrier australia 2018 australian online casinos that accept paypal mobile casino microgaming casino uniforms wholesale
Debunking Mark Blumenthal’s Critique of the RFK Rolling Stone Article
Response to the Mark Lindeman’s TruthIsAll FAQ
A Reply to Nate Silver’s “Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls”
2016 Election fraud: Response to Joshua Holland
Bob Fitrakis: flunking Joshua Holland in Stat 101
Election fraud posts since 2004:
Babes erotic roulette game 77 no deposit casino usa mobile Elections: Theory and Applications
Why Won’t the National Election Pool Release Unadjusted Exit Polls?
Fixing the Exit Polls to Match the Policy
Avoiding Election Fraud: Forecasters. Political Scientists, Academics and the Media
Election Fraud: What the Media wants us to believe
Election Fraud: The 2016 Democratic Primaries slotomania hack android 2018 32red mobile casino ipad betway casino no deposit bonus 2018 black friday sales 2018 uk ps4 casino flash zodiac golden odyssey
Democratic Primaries: Election Fraud Probability Analysis
April 4 Exit poll anomalies (continued)
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Super Tuesday: 5 Democratic primaries, exit poll discrepancies/win-probabilities
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MA Democratic primary; a stolen election
1988-2012 Presidential Election Fraud Exit Poll Database
2004: Overwhelming Statistical Proof of a Stolen Election vegas slots online aristocrat casino slots sounds
Election Fraud Analysis: A Historical Overview
Casino ac spin palace mobile canada top gambling sites Probability Analysis
Perspectives on an Exit Poll Reference Text
Slot machine hack codes best online bonuses casino online usa players Exit Poll Discrepancies
Monte Carlo Simulation: 2004 Presidential Pre-election and Exit Polls
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True Vote Graphics
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Election Fraud: Uncertainty, Logic and Probability roulette game to buy cheat online roulette casino casino uniforms xtreme slots how to win money spokane casino jobs java slot machine gui code slot machines usa monroe ohio
A Model for Estimating Presidential Election Day Fraud
2000-2012: Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation
2004: Simple Arithmetic Proof that Bush Stole the election
2004: The “Game” Debate
Why did the Networks Cancel Exit Polls in 19 States?
2000: Harrahs online casino commercial draw poker 51-45% (5-7 million votes) taj mahal casino atlantic city n.j zodiac no deposit bonus casino pour francais avec bonus sans depot cash casino go go dancers best mortgage deals for bad credit rating grand fortune casino bonus code bingo abc
2004: True Vote Model Sensitivity Analysis: Kerry Landslide online casino comparison kerching mobile casino betway live casino casino bus trips from san antonio tx roulette marvel
A Conversation about the 2004 Election
Simple Numerical Proof of 2004 Election Fraud
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1988-2008 State Uncounted Votes and Exit Poll Analysis
The True Vote Model: A Mathematical Formulation