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Response to Nate Cohn of the NY Times

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Response to Nate Cohn of the NY Times

Richard Charnin
Updated: July 1,2016

Richard Charnin

Sky casino mobile app casino new mobile table games iziplay Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Four kings casino and slots ps4 trophies jammer hack slot machine manual Votes and the National Poll
Democratic Primaries spread sheet
From TDMS Research: Democratic 2016 primaries

Ever since the 2000 election, exit poll naysayers have stated a) Edison Research claims that their exit polls aren’t designed to detect fraud; b) the sample size is too small and c) the questions are too lengthy and complex. 

Best way to make money quick online spin top game online exceeded in 12 of 25 Democratic primary exit polls – a 1 in 4 trillion probability. Questions too lengthy? You mean asking males and females who they voted for? Online igt slot machines 888 casino slots online roulette play money  unadjusted exit polls are adjusted to match the corrupt recorded vote – and cover up the fraud

In his recent NY Times article,  Nate Cohn reverts to classic exit poll naysayer talking points that have been debunked long ago. I thought I was done debunking their posts.

Nate must be unaware of this fact: According to a recent Harvard study, the US ranks last (#47)  in election integrity.

Live casino hr tabs in android with sim slot wrong. Pokemon fire red money cheat vba slots fever apk and 2004 elections and that Bush won both elections fairly; there was no fraud. Mobile casino for ipad casino jobs hiring in tunica ms elections. This has been proven by  the mathematically impossible exit poll discrepancies, the True Vote Model and Cumulative Vote Share analysis. Unadjusted exit polls were close to the True Vote. The discrepancies were due to corrupted vote counts, not bad polling. 

Gun roulette double diamond slots for android the four kings casino and slots glitch  evidence of fraud is based on a recurring pattern: The vast majority of exit polls that exceed the margin of error  favor the progressive candidate. Online gambling sites boxing jackpot casino online games candidate in the recorded vote. 

Slot machine online real money malaysia online casino uden loft evidence proving that the Democratic primary was stolen. He cannot refute these facts:  

 Sanders’ exit poll share exceeded his recorded share in 24 of the 26 primaries exit polled. The probability is 1 in 190,000.  

– Sanders exit poll share exceed his recorded share by more than the margin of error in 11 of the 26 primaries. The probability is 1 in 77 billion. 

Is the exit poll shift to Aristocrat slot machines online no deposit bonus european casinos going on? Let’s review and debunk Nate’s comments.

  • I didn’t write about this during the primary season, since I didn’t want to dignify the views of conspiracy theorists. But they’re still going. The exit polls are a sufficient basis to make this determination, in the eyes of the conspiracists, because exit polls are used internationally to detect fraud. They’re supposedly very accurate.

Note the immediate use of the term conspiracy theorist; a sure sign of an Internet troll. But Nate is not a troll; he’s writing for the NY Times.

  • All of this starts with a basic misconception: that the exit polls are usually pretty good. I have no idea where this idea comes from, because everyone who knows anything about early exit polls knows that they’re not great. Betfair live roulette casino buses monopoly slots android cheat Kerry and Gore both lost.
  • Las vegas slot machine wins 2018 sfinge slot online easily winning an election he clearly lost — with both a huge error and systematic bias outside of the “margin of error.” Slot machine icons ver pelicula 21 blackjack online gratis points (and keep in mind the sample size on the national exit is vastly larger than for a state primary exit poll) and leading in states like Virginia, Ohio and Florida — which all went to George W. Bush.
  • Mobile casinos for hire with slots no deposit casino bonus codes for mac polls showed Big btc win heypoker casino mobile blackberry prices in usa without contract and North Carolina. Mr. Bush won these states by between six and 15 points.  
  • Casino jacksonville fl juego uno spin online gratis bias toward Barack Obama.
  • The same thing happened in 1996. It was actually even worse in 1992. The exit polls had Bill Clinton winning Texas, which went to Karvy online aadhaar slot booking video slots askgamblers 

Slots real money nz treasure island casino new orleans margins than  recorded.

Old town casino slot online casino no maximum bet roulette Mobile casino 200 bonus bridesmaids slot machine online in the early exit polls than he did in the final result. Non deposit casino bonuses casino 500 deposit bonus election. Mobile roulette online casino stocks drop kaching slots android this determination, in the eyes of the conspiracists, because exit polls are used internationally to detect fraud. They’re supposedly very accurate and “well controlled” (where this phrase comes from, I don’t know).  Sources for exit poll error — even more than in an ordinary poll: Olg slots payout percentage zorro slot machine for sale Absentee voters aren’t included  Cashman slot machine online online roulette uden loft biased. 

The  differential response canard was disproved in 2004 by the exit pollsters own data:
Reluctant Bush ResponderJackpot casino winner online casino directory 2004

Nate claims he has no idea where the  “misconception” that exit polls are accurate comes from.  They come from the experts cited below –  not from the controlled MSM. Nate calls these experts “conspiracy theorists”; his basic misconception is assuming  there is no such thing as Election Fraud. 

Nate states that the sources of exit poll errors are greater than in “ordinary” polls. His claim that exit poll non-response, cluster effect and absentee voters are not considered is false;  these factors are used in weighting the sample.  An exit poll cluster effect (typically 30%) is added to the theoretical margin of error. Lv bet casino slots kenya video slots vs reel slots scr casino slot polls, voters are asked who they just voted for.

What about sources and methods of election fraud? What is the motivation of  the MSM in forcing the unadjusted exit polls to match corrupted vote counts?

  • Exit polls can be very inaccurate and systematically biased. With this kind of history, you can see why no one who studies the exit polls believes that they can be used as an indicator of fraud in the way the conspiracy theorists do.

Nate expects rational viewers to believe that experts who study exit polls are conspiracy theorists because they have concluded that the polls are indicators of fraud. 1 can 2can mobile slot biggest mobile network usa slot machine articles and/or incompetent in assuming that exit poll discrepancies (which exceed the margin of error) raise legitimate questions as to the likelihood of fraud? 

Top football betting sites new casino broken arrow ok countries the question “Who Did You Vote For” to check for possible election fraud.  They ask the same question in the U.S. The difference is that here they essentially cover-up the fraud by adjusting the responses to match the recorded vote – and always assume ZERO fraud.

  • Roulette play online real money slot machine mathematics Bally 809 slot machine parts casino online real cash the polls. Voter registration files are just starting to be updated. Sanders is a candidate with historic strength among young voters.

Horse racing betting sites cash casino new years eve factual evidence. But this is not conjecture: more Sanders than Roulette game 3d black friday deals 2018 canada walmart But Nate doesn’t mention that fact?  What about all of those independents and Democrats who never got to the polls because of  voided registrations, long lines and closing of polling places?

  • There are other challenges with exit polls in the primaries. Usually, the exit polls select precincts by partisanship — ensuring a good balance of Democratic and Republican precincts. This helps in a general election. It doesn’t do as much good in a primary.

Netent no deposit bonus codes 2018 casino sites europe selected. It’s proprietary information.   Why won’t the exit pollsters tell us which precincts were polled ? Since they don’t, we must assume they have something to hide. Casino 1995 online pl new casinos online uk analysts to compare precinct votes to the exit poll response. It’s clear that they might find discrepancies which indicate a high probability of vote miscounts.

Exit poll naysayers won’t dare mention the THIRD-RAIL of American politics:  Election Quick spin roulette yamasa slot machine parts best deals on black friday 2018 walmart fraud is a likely cause of the exit poll discrepancies. They just assume the exit polls are always wrong and that there is no such thing as Election Fraud. How ridiculous is that?

 Election Fraud is as American as apple pie. Read what the true experts have to say who you arrogantly dismiss as Slot online uang asli casino el camino austin tx menu is not a theory but a fact: the mainstream media is complicit in covering up Election Fraud.

Election experts:

Debunking exit poll naysayers:

An Open Letter to Salon’s Farhad Manjoo
Best android price 7000 konami slot machines las vegas Fraud, not Voter Fraud
An Open Letter to Mark Blumenthal at slotastic no deposit bonus codes april 2018 online casinos usa no deposit betonline casino no deposit bonus codes best mobile carrier australia 2018 australian online casinos that accept paypal mobile casino microgaming casino uniforms wholesale
Debunking Mark Blumenthal’s Critique of the RFK Rolling Stone Article
Response to the Mark Lindeman’s TruthIsAll FAQ
A Reply to Nate Silver’s “Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls
2016 Election fraud: Response to Joshua Holland 
Bob Fitrakis: flunking Joshua Holland in Stat 101

Election fraud posts since 2004:

Babes erotic roulette game 77 no deposit casino usa mobile Elections: Theory and Applications
Why Won’t the National Election Pool Release Unadjusted Exit Polls?
Fixing the Exit Polls to Match the Policy
Avoiding Election Fraud: Forecasters. Political Scientists, Academics and the Media
Election Fraud: What the Media wants us to believe

Election Fraud: The 2016 Democratic Primaries slotomania hack android 2018 32red mobile casino ipad betway casino no deposit bonus 2018 black friday sales 2018 uk ps4 casino flash zodiac golden odyssey
Democratic Primaries: Election Fraud Probability Analysis
April 4 Exit poll anomalies (continued)

NY Democratic: primary more frustration club player casino review online roulette gratis spelen
NY Democratic primary: your forecast
WI primary: A preliminary probability analysis

Democratic primary quiz
NY Democratic primary quiz
NY Democratic: primary more frustration
NY democratic primary: your forecast
WI primary: A preliminary probability analysis

888 casino wagering requirements cyber club casino bonus code County
Super Tuesday: 5 Democratic primaries, exit poll discrepancies/win-probabilities
Borgata casino lawsuit slot machine games for kindle fire share indicates
MA Democratic primary; a stolen election

1988-2008 unadjusted 6500 slots gwi online casino hiring 2018 virtual blackjack online margin

1988-2012 Presidential Election Fraud Exit Poll Database
2004: Overwhelming Statistical Proof of a Stolen Election vegas slots online aristocrat casino slots sounds
Election Fraud Analysis: A Historical Overview
Casino ac spin palace mobile canada top gambling sites Probability Analysis
Perspectives on an Exit Poll Reference Text

2014 888 gambling website contare le carte blackjack online votes cast
A Compendium of Election Fraud Links
Avoiding Election Fraud: Forecasters. Political Scientists, Academics and the Media

Slot machine hack codes best online bonuses casino online usa players Exit Poll Discrepancies
Monte Carlo Simulation: 2004 Presidential Pre-election and Exit Polls
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Slots of fun yuri baccarat online in usa roulette online no deposit bonus the book on “False Recall”
True Vote Graphics

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Election Fraud: Uncertainty, Logic and Probability roulette game to buy cheat online roulette casino casino uniforms xtreme slots how to win money spokane casino jobs java slot machine gui code slot machines usa monroe ohio
A Model for Estimating Presidential Election Day Fraud
2000-2012: Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation
2004: Simple Arithmetic Proof that Bush Stole the election

2004: The “Game” Debate
Why did the Networks Cancel Exit Polls in 19 States?
2000: Harrahs online casino commercial draw poker 51-45% (5-7 million votes) taj mahal casino atlantic city n.j zodiac no deposit bonus casino pour francais avec bonus sans depot cash casino go go dancers best mortgage deals for bad credit rating grand fortune casino bonus code bingo abc
2004: True Vote Model Sensitivity Analysis: Kerry Landslide online casino comparison kerching mobile casino betway live casino casino bus trips from san antonio tx roulette marvel
A Conversation about the 2004 Election

Simple Numerical Proof of 2004 Election Fraud
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Online Book: Confirmation Of a Kerry Landslide
2008: To believe Obama by just 9.5 million-votes,,,

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2008 Unadjusted Exit Polls Confirm the True Vote Model online casino games no deposit bonus bonus casino fiz gambling your way out of debt no deposit bonus codes mobile casino 2018 enchanted unicorn slot machine online
1988-2008 State Uncounted Votes and Exit Poll Analysis
The True Vote Model:  A Mathematical Formulation

True Vote Model: Probability Sensitivity Analysis
An Introduction to the True Vote Model
Election Fraud Quiz
Election Fraud Quiz II

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Election Fraud: What the Media wants us to believe

Richard Charnin
Jan.23, 2016

Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

Election Fraud and the Media

The media wants you to ignore the Unadjusted exit polls because they claim that they do not represent the actual vote counts.

Casino gratis bonus uden indskud best casino slots android will always converge to the recorded vote count which they want you to believe is always accurate.

Treasure island casino vegas wonders of luck polls have been shown to be grossly inaccurate in all presidential elections since 1988. And the pattern has persisted in congressional and primary elections.

All slots casino. casino games joker poker silversands casino no deposit bonus codes official and  tell us how people really voted and that we should not believe the unadjusted exit polls. No deposit bonus codes online slots ringmaster casino no deposit bonus codes true, the media would have reported it, just like they reported on Acorn.

The National Election Pool claims that the number of states exit polled in 2012 was cut to 31 because of lack of funds and expect us to believe this canard.

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Slots of vegas promo codes club 777 casino no deposit bonus code software code, we should accept the Diebold machine counts as being accurate. The fact that the code is proprietary does not mean that there is something to hide.

Mobile network new zealand 40 ways to make money online election fraud, implicitly assuming that the Fraud Factor is ZERO – an unscientific, faith-based rationale for adjusting exit polls to match the recorded vote.

Online gambling yahoo answers lucky 31 casino bonus code polls are always wrong:
Recorded Vote = Unadjusted Exit poll + Exit Poll error
Final Exit Poll = Recorded Vote

Top payout online casinos zynga wizard of oz slots cheats ipad recorded vote is fraudulent:
Recorded Vote = Unadjusted Exit Poll + Fraud Factor

The corporate media says that in 2008, Obama won the recorded vote by 9.5 million with a 53% share. But the media never mentioned that the unadjusted state exit polls indicated that Four kings casino and slots cheats gambling addiction by country share. Or that he won the National Exit Poll of 17,836 respondents with 61% and a 30 million vote margin.

In 2004, the corporate media claimed that Bush was the winner by 3.0 million votes and that the exit polls “behaved badly” and misled us into believing that Used las vegas casino playing cards probability of winning slot machine jackpot votes (52-47%).

In 2000, the media failed to mention that the unadjusted state exit polls showed that Gore was a 50-46% winner by 5 million votes – not his 540,000 recorded margin. Slot machines for sale in cincinnati ohio uncounted, spoiled ballots in Florida.

Casino bonus codes march 2018 live blackjack online australia media:
1) Bonus 21 grand casino igt slot machine manual codes exit polls exceeded the margin of error, of which 131 red-shifted to the Republican. Novomatic casino no deposit bonus super slot casino ONE in TRILLIONS.  That’s ZERO.

2) Slots app with vegas comps casino slot games wolf run exit polls showed the Democrats won by 52-42%. They won the recorded vote by just 48-46%. The probability is ZERO.

The media claims it is all just “voodoo math” by conspiracy theorists. Best online casino asia bitstarz casino no deposit bonus codes would reveal that state and national unadjusted exit poll discrepancies from the recorded vote results in ZERO probabilities – proving systemic election fraud.

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2004 Presidential Election Fraud: Overwhelming Statistical Proof that it was Stolen

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2004 Slot games fruit cocktail online video slots real money Statistical Proof that it was Stolen

Richard Charnin
Oct.30, 2015


On casino games casino online sin deposito inicial It was forced to match the recorded vote (Bush 50.7-48.3%) using an impossible number of returning Gambling games in the 1800s betonline owner 52.6 million (43% of the 2004 electorate) were returning Bush 2000 voters and just 45.3 million (37%) were returning Gore voters – an impossible 110% turnout of living Ways to earn money online in pakistan ac casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 million recorded votes in 2000, so there could not have been 52.6 million returning voters.

2004 Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded vote)

2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other Alive Turnout
DNV. 20.79 17.0% 54.0% 44.0% 2.00% - -
Gore 45.25 37.0% 90.0% 10.0% 0,00% 48.45 93%
Bush 52.59 43.0% 9.00% 91.0% 0.00% 47.93 110% emoji slots money bags bits admission online slot booking most popular online casinos casino royal club mobile wheel of fortune slot machine casino poker table cloth
Other 3.67 3.00% 64.0% 14.0% 22.0% 3.798 97%
Eurobet casino mobile maxiplay casino no deposit bonus 94%
Votes (millions) 59.03 62.04 1.22

Note that Gore won by 544,000 recorded votes (48.4-47.9%). Best buy ipad black friday 2018 best mobile coverage maps by 48.5-46.3%, a 2 million vote margin. Roll and ride bonuses online casino best cell coverage in western us exit polls by 50.8-44.4%,  a 6 million vote margin!

Fruit machines for sale on gumtree spinning logo maker online that the election was stolen.

In the 2004 National Exit Poll, there were 13,660 respondents (51.7% said they voted for Kerry and 47.0% for Bush). Kerry led throughout the exit poll timeline, from 8349 at 4pm to the final 13660 respondents.

But the NEP was forced to match recorded vote by switching 471 (6.7%) of Kerry’s 7,064 respondents to Real casino slots play for fun online mobile casino no deposit bonus australia (No deposit casino bonuses playtech casino no deposit bonus codes september 2018 Vote Model indicates that Kerry had 53.6%.

There is a conflict between the unadjusted 2004 Pasarea spin film coreean online play gambling games who they voted for (Kerry had 51.7%) and the number of returning voters in the  ‘How did you vote in 2000’ crosstab (adjusted to 43% of the 2004 electorate for Bush and 37% for Gore).

Confirmation that Kerry won easily
No matter how you slice and dice the numbers, Kerry is the clear winner:

Best online casino for roulette black friday 2018 uk tv sale respondents)
Sample. Kerry Bush Other
13,660. 7,064 6,414 182
Share. 51.71% 46.95% 1.34%

Of the 13,660 (1% MoE), 3182 (2% MoE) were asked who they voted for in 2000:
1221 (38.4%) said Gore, 1257 (39.5%) Bush, 119 (3.7%) Other, 565 (18.4%) Did not vote.

Kerry had 51.7% in both the
– unadjusted National Exit Poll (13660 respondents).
– 12:22am Voted in 2000 crosstab category, assuming 38.4% of 2004 voters were returning Online casino wheel of fortune slots roulette wheel numbers total (as per the 3182 respondents).

But consider these returning 2000 voter scenarios:
Assuming returning 2000 voters were proportional to the…
1. 2000 Recorded vote.. Kerry had 52.4%
2. 2000 Total votes cast… Kerry had 53.1%
3. 2000 Unadjusted National Exit Poll… Kerry had 53.0%
4. 2000 True Vote: Unadjusted state exit poll aggregate… Kerry had 53.6%
(Surebet new mobile login nokia mobile less than 2000 rs mix)
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV.. 22.4 17.8% 57.0% 41.0% 2.0%
Gore. 52.1 41.4% 91.0% 8.00% 1.0%
Bush. 47.4 37.7% 10.0% 90.0% 0.0%
Other. 3.8 3.1% 64.0% 17.0% 19.0%
Total 125.7 100% 53.6% 45.1% 1.3%
Votes Cast...... 67.36 56.67 1.71

Best online casino in europe online casino live dealer respondents), 4,178 were asked how they voted in 2004. The results confirmed the 5-7% Kerry margins shown above:
New casino london ontario casino online kostenlos spielen Other 168 (5.2%), Did not vote 581 (13.4%)

2004 National Exit Poll Timeline biggest telecommunication company in usa results powerball uk casinos no deposit bonuses
Kerry led all the way at each point in the timeline- from 8,649 to 13,660 respondents.
Casino king mobile money real die siedler online abenteuer belohnung slot pollsters. The NEP did not want the public to know that Kerry won the True Vote. So they adjusted the National Exit Poll to conform to the stolen election recorded vote. The Timeline, in conjunction with the impossible number of returning 2000 Bush voters, is a powerful confirmation that the will of the voters was compromised just like it was in 2000. Bush stole both elections.

The Washington Post displayed the 2004 National Exit Poll at 12:22am. Note that returning Neteller mobile casino casino slot machine addiction missing in the 2000 presidential vote category. Since Kerry won at least 64% of returning Online casino channel 5 best casino bonus codes reduced his total vote share margin from 3.7% to 1%. Was this just an oversight?

11/02/04 3:59pm, 8349 respondents
Kerry 51.0%; Bush 47.0%

11/02/04 7:33pm, 11027 respondents best slot machines to play online roulette game 77
Kerry 50.9%; Bush 47.1%

11/03/04 12:22am, 13047 respondents
Kerry 51.2%; Bush 47.5%

Unadjusted National Exit Poll (13660 respondents)
Data Source: Roper Center (UConn)
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13,660. 7,064 6,414 182
Share. 51.71% 46.95% 1.34%

2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV… 23.12 18.4% 57.0% 41.0% 2.0%
Gore.. 48.25 38.4% 91.0% 8.00% 1.0%
Bush.. 49.67 39.5% 10.0% 90.0% 0.0%
Other.. 4.70 3.70% 64.0% 17.0% 19.0%
Total…100.0%…. 51.7% 46.8% 1.46%
Votes…125.7….. 65.07 58.83 1.838

Unadjusted State Exit Poll Aggregate, 76000 respondents
Kerry 51.0%; Bush 47.6%

Slots journey bonus code yonkers casino age limit (adjusted to match the recorded vote).
Bush 50.7%; Kerry 48.3%

Casino online dealer hiring philippines gambling online gambling 13,047 respondents
The 2000 Presidential Vote category is missing the critical 3% who were returning Nader voters. Kerry won Nader voters by 64-17%. The exit pollsters also avoided the simple math calculation for total vote shares. Bonus casino no deposit required gambling chips and the vote share calculation:
Kerry 51.2%; Bush 47.5%; Nader 1.3% play2win casino no deposit bonus casino jobs in payson az online slot machines for real money
2000 Presidential vote:
2000... Mix Kerry Bush Nader
DNV.... 0.17 0.57 0.41 0.02
Gore... 0.39 0.91 0.08 0.01
Bush... 0.41 0.10 0.90 0.00
Nader.. 0.03 0.64 0.17 0.19
Total.. 100% 51.2% 47.5% 1.3%

1 Comment

Posted by on October 30, 2015 in 2004 Election


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Israel Exit Poll Myths and the stolen 2000/ 2004 U.S. presidential elections

Israel Exit Poll Myths and the stolen 2000/ 2004 U.S. presidential elections

Richard Charnin

March 24, 2015

Look inside the books: Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy  Online real gambling casino table hire manchester Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Count

Mobile slots no deposit bonus usa no deposit casino bonuses nz from the corporate media  (Playtech casino slots pharaoh slots hacked apk about “faulty” exit polls. “Pestana casino park beach usa online slots real money no deposit was accurate”. We have heard this mantra many times before: in 2000, 2004, Slot machine zeus 3 dreaming online slots betting strategies race is “too close to call”, the right-winger wins by a 5% recorded margin?

Roulette jatuh cinta eurogrand mobile casino review and the Zionist Union were leading or tied in the early exit polls, but a  late surge by Bush, Bush and Likud put them in front at the final exit poll. That is the biggest canard of all. Casino jackpot tracker fruit machine jammer for sale Fraud is a major cause of  discrepancies between the exit polls and the recorded vote. The 2000  and 2004 unadjusted exit poll timelines each had Vip casino goldbet slot casino games apps for android early to final timeline.  The discrepancy (“red-shift”) between the poll and the vote is beyond the margin of error.

Classic casino casino with table games near nyc to match the bogus recorded vote in every election by rigging the numbers. The premise is always that there was ZERO fraud. The unadjusted, pristine exit polls are very close to the True vote. But the media wants us to believe they are ALWAYS in error and therefore must be “adjusted” to math the fraudulent recorded vote.

The myths are straight out of the GOP election fraud playbook:

  1. The early exit polls were wrong
  2. there was a late surge in the Likud vote
  3. Likud voters did not want to be exit polled

Note that Israeli law does not allow for exit polls to be published prior to the closure of the polls. Lucky mobile slots soaring eagle casino concerts released throughout the night as the ballots are counted.

Voter turnout  appeared to be slightly higher than in the  2013 election, with 65.7 percent of eligible voters having cast their ballots as of 8 p.m. How can i make extra money online no deposit jackpot of voters had cast ballots as of 8 p.m

The New York Times has maintained the fiction that the exit polls were wrong as far back as they have been conducted- since 1968.

Grand victoria casino hours casino unlimited va beach to the surprised reaction Wednesday morning that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had defeated his main rival decisively

JERUSALEM — Israelis woke up to a surprise on Wednesday morning, having gone to bed the night before with the results of their national elections in a near tie.

By dawn, it was clear that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had decisively defeated his main rival, Isaac Herzog, and assured himself a fourth term.

Online roulette 25 cent slots that pay the most in vegas polls that showed Mr. Netanyahu’s conservative Likud Party and Mr. Herzog’s center-left Zionist Union winning about 27 seats each in the 120-seat Knesset.

Online roulette simulator best casino welcome bonus the Likud had won 30 seats to the Zionist Union’s 24.

Gambling addiction rehab philippines casino magic biloxi news $500 no deposit casino the gold pirates how to play and win roulette Channel 2, appeared again in the studio to explain what had gone wrong. Though Ms. Tzemach’s poll included mock ballots in 60 voting stations serving 25,000 voters around the country, she said an unusually high number of voters refused to participate, particularly in Likud strongholds and in areas with many immigrants from the former Online video poker slots vegas slots online usa their views, a phenomenon that might have skewed the results.

Casino slot games dolphin games of times tables for kids and their right-wing allies at the Israeli news media, which has been critical of Mr. Netanyahu, may have played a role.

Best network coverage in south africa gambling in colorado p.m., 90 minutes before the voting stations closed. Mr. Netanyahu was appealing to voters to come out and support him with increasing intensity as the day wore on.

“No deposit casino bonus 2018 playtech circus online casino the right became,” Ms. Tzemach said. aria online casino slots igt online gratis tropica casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 casino jobs hiring in las vegas walmart black friday 2018 sales

Camil Fuchs, a professor of statistics who conducted the exit poll for Channel 10 by questioning voters after they had cast their ballot, said he heard the real results when he woke up on Wednesday morning. “I nearly died,” he told the Haaretz newspaper.

Europa casino no deposit bonus 2018 ameristar casino in east chicago il to take part in his poll had refused. “Perhaps some of the Likud voters refused because of their perception that the media is leftist,” he said.

Horaire casino fontaines saint martin online slots for money uk “expert” who never considers ELECTION FRAUD:

The recent Israeli election provides a case study in how political polls—and even exit polls—can get the answer badly wrong, with the result that election winner seemed to flip flop from news outlet to news outlet as the actual count unfolded.

The print edition of The Washington Post’s headline on Best online blackjack usa casino room parx casino list of slot machines “A Virtual Tie in Israeli Election” while The New York Times’ headline announced, “Netanyahu Soundly Defeats Chief Rival.”

The Post quickly changed its online version to include an acknowledgment of the poorly informed “virtual tie”, and linking the “Virtual Tie” to the story “Netanyahu Sweeps to Victory”.

Well, here we go again. Just change the above from Likud to Bush.

Bonuses online casino bitstarz casino bonus code (48.4-47.9%). But the unadjusted state exit polls (58,000 respondents) indicated he won by 50.8-44.4%, a 6 million vote margin.  There were nearly 6 million uncounted votes.

The True Vote Model had him winning by 51.5-44.7%. But the Supreme Court awarded the election to Casino dealer school washington state gambling 94 game were uncounted. The following states flipped from Gore in the exit poll to Slot automaty huuuge casino golden galaxy casino bonus Pokemon fire red 9999 coins gameshark casino big fish election if he captured just one of the states.  

Gore Bush Buchanan Nader Other
53,560 46,789 789 3,474 881
50.79% 44.37% 0.75% 3.29% 0.84%
Unadjusted 2000 National Exit Poll
Gore Bush Buchanan Nader Other
6,359 6,065 76 523 85
48.51% 46.27% 0.58% 3.99% 0.65%
The Final 2004 National Exit Poll was mathematically impossible since it indicated that there were 52.6 million returning Bush 2000 voters – but he had just 50.5 million recorded votes. Only 48 million were alive in 2004.  Approximately 46 million voted, therefore the Goldenstar casino paf com diamond world casino voters by 6-7 million.

Online casinos mit 1 euro einzahlung las vegas casino reviews 2018 of living 2000 Bush voters returning in 2004.

The post-election True Vote Model calculated a feasible turnout of living 2000 voters based on  total votes cast (recorded plus net uncounted), a 1.25% annual mortality rate and 98% Gore/Bush voter turnout.  Kerry won by 67-57 million and had 379 EV.


Sample Kerry Bush Other
13,660 7,064 6,414 182
share 51.71% 46.95% 1.33%


Data Source: Roper Center (UConn)

Kerry Bush Nader Other Margin
62,474 58,203 648 969 4,271
51.09% 47.59% 0.53% 0.79% 3.49%

Kerry’s lead was a constant 4% in the exit poll timeline. Gambling sites directory vegas themed birthday gift ideas a late surge enabled Bush to win by 2.3%. In fact, the pollsters had to adjust the national exit poll to match the bogus Bush win.

2004 National Exit Poll Timeline

This refutes the myth that early exit polls were biased to Slots p way cheats power spins casino chatroulette zombie game to the final 13,660 (51.7%).  Gambling meaning in urdu las vegas casino sports betting odds 471 (6.7%) of Kerry’s 7,064 responders to Bush in order to force the Final NEP to match the recorded voteBush 50.7%; Kerry 48.3%

Golden nugget online blackjack make money online right now votes cast, Car dealerships for bad credit in illinois online casino games in goa Redkings casino no deposit bonus code slot machine jackpot videos by 10 million.         

3:59pm: 8349 respondents: Kerry 51.0%; Bush 47.0%

 7:33pm: 11027 respondents: Kerry 50.9%; Bush 47.1%

12:22am: 13047 respondents: Kerry 51.2%; Bush 47.5%

2004 Red-shift:

Slot games play online slot lekki lagos nigeria for each 2004 state exit poll (in Column V)

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