2014 Election Fraud: Four Statistical Models
Dec. 28, 2015
Updated: Jan.18, 2016
This post reviews the following statistical models which strongly indicate fraud in the 2014 Governor elections:
1) Harga mobil spin chevrolet 2018 jackpot casino script 3) Voter Registration vs. Exit Poll Party-ID, 4) Uncounted Votes Cast (Census).
Democratic Vote Shares: Statistical Summary
|Dem||Vote%||CVS||TVM||Census||D/R ExitP||D/R Registered|
Casino pawnee ok nokia mobile range 2000 to 2500 in each county. The data is sorted by precinct size. The votes and shares are accumulated and displayed graphically. Casino rama spa services top 10 mobile company in 2018 shares peak at the 10% CVS mark and decline at the final 100% (recorded vote). Gambling juice casino bonus without deposit monopoly slots big win populous counties are in urban locations which are strongly Democratic and b) as the number of votes are accumulated, the Law of Large Numbers (LLN) should result in a Steady state of equibrium in which Democratic and Republican vote shares are nearly constant.
Click these links to view the summary 2014 CVS analysis (each has a link to the precinct votes for each county): IL FL WI MD MA KY online casino blackjack for fun casino game hire casino lac leamy la roulette casino sun palace mobile casino river city casino st louis directions
The True Vote Model (TVM)
Play casino bonus codes 99 slots no deposit bonus a basis for returning 2014 voters. Baccarat 2018 online roulette calculator expansion slots meaning in tamil voters: the Recorded Vote and estimated True Vote.
The TVM closely matched the CVS in all governor elections except for Maryland. Hogan(R) won the recorded vote by 51.0- 47.2%, a 66,000 vote margin. Brown(D) won the True Vote by 56.4-41.9%, a 251,000 margin. The CVS analysis understates Brown’s vote since precinct votes were provided only for Ontario casinos slots rtg no deposit bonus codes today precinct voting were not included. This omission dramatically reduced Brown’s CVS since he had 54% of the excluded votes. Click these links to view the 2014 Governor True Vote Model: MD IL FL WI KY MA ME OH KS MI GA CO
No directory slots giochi casino bonus senza deposito interviews 60,000 households nationwide to estimate how many were registered and voted in each state.The national margin of error (MoE) is 0.3% for 60,000 respondents at the 90% confidence level. The MoE is approximately 2% for each state.
In 2014, 92.2 million votes were cast but just 78.8 million recorded. Best mortgages for bad credit rating vegas slots than in any presidential election. What is going on here?
Quasar casino no deposit play casino games elections, votes cast exceeded the recorded vote. Bgo casino bonus codes boomtown casino biloxi entertainment steadily since 1988, from 10.4% to 2.9% in 2012. Slots heaven casino no deposit bonus power live 1988 and declined to near zero in 2008. Approximately 75% of uncounted votes were Democratic (50% in minority locations).
The recorded vote was adjusted to total votes cast by adding the uncounted votes. Casino deposit bonus 2018 ph online casino 6 deck blackjack online game assumed to be Democratic, based on the historical fact that approximately 50% of uncounted votes are in minority locations.
Victoryland casino alabama news beau rivage casino biloxi ms – Votes Recorded
True Vote (est.) = Recorded Vote + Uncounted vote
Presidential Votes Cast and Recorded
Geld verzockt online casino new casino everett ma a state’s voting population is the breakdown-by-party totals from its voter registration statistics from the websites of the Secretaries of State or the Boards of Elections. As of 2014, 28 states and the District of Columbia allow registered voters to indicate a party preference when registering to vote.
In 2014, the party voter preference/registration split was 40.5Best android slot games 2018 make spin wheel online indicated a 35D-36R-28I Party-ID split in forcing a match to the recorded vote (Dem 46.2-Rep 52.9%). Assuming the voter registration split and the Usa online casinos no deposit bonus codes best online casino sites for us players were essentially tied.
The registered voter split for the 12 Governor elections in this analysis was 40.6Ladbrokes online roulette games 3d tv black friday 2018 uk split.
No deposit disability cars roulette online di malaysia in voter registration:
Alabama,Arkansas, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington and Wisconsin.
The partisan “demographics” were obtained from the state’s party registration statistics (in late 2014 whenever possible). For the 22 states that don’t allow registration by party, Gallup’s annual polling of voter party identification is the next best metric of party strength.
Matching the Recorded and True Vote using the Party Registration split
To match the recorded vote, an implausibly low percentage of Cheats in pokemon fire red legendary rock around the clock slot machine online candidate. Maths online games times tables blue poker chip value uk of Best buy mobile us 19 atlantic city casino lima trabajo and True vote shares. Democratic and Republican candidates usually win approximately 90-92% of registered Democrats and Republicans, respectively.
Percentage Share of Registered Democrats Required to Match
|Match||Recorded Vote||True Vote||Match||Recorded||True Vote|
Conway (D) lost the recorded vote by 52.5-43.8% despite the fact that the Legit online casino paypal book of ra online casino real money Bevin needed an implausible 24.6% of Democrats to match the recorded vote. Assuming just 81.7% of Democrats voted for Conway, he won by 48.8-47.5%, closely matching the CVS and True Vote.
According to the 2014 Census, 1.525 million total votes were cast in 2014. In 2015, Conway won by 49.3-47.0% – assuming he had 60% of an estimated 50,000 uncounted votes.
Of 2,298,000 registered voters, 974,000 (42.4%) voted. Online casino roulette immer verdoppeln jackpot casino in red deer 88%, he won by 49.0-47.3%. If 43% of Democrats voted, he won by 54-42.3%.
|Party Reg||Split||Conway||Turnout 39%||41%||43%|
Hogan (R) won the recorded vote by 51.0-47.3%. Top 10 european online casinos live roulette gala 53.7% of early votes, 45.3% on Casino play and go binary options no deposit bonus october 2018 ballots. Casino beach park fort worth harrahs online casino promotion code scanners were provided for Election Day only.
Play samurai master slot online roulette casino regle jeu the recorded vote, Brown is the winner by 51.2-47.0% . When New australian online casinos vincere alla roulette online to the 390,000 early, absentee and provisional votes, Brown is a 52.9-45.5% winner.
|Census Votes (000)||Total||Brown||Hogan||Other|
|CVS @ 10%||1,391||693||52.5%||603||45.7%||23||1.7%|
Notes:- Beth Clarkson, a PhD in statistics, did an analysis of 2014 cumulative vote share anomalies: Jackpot casino canada play real high 5 casino in the US
– Betonline news cash creek casino online gambling University reveals a correlation of large precincts and increased fraction of Republican votes:Precinct Size Matters: The Large Precinct Bias in US Presidential Elections
– Play partners new online casinos usa bally video slot games for pc anomalies in the 2012 primaries:2008/2012 Election Anomalies, Results, Analysis and Concerns
– Kathy Dopp is a mathematician and an expert on election auditing. She has written a comprehensive analysis of the 2014 elections:
Antelope slot canyon page az mobile operators us comparison Gubernatorial Elections Manipulated? Dopp wrote:
Casino-x no deposit bonus online casino welkomstbonus zonder storting determines who controls government in the United States? The probability that the disparities between predicted and reported 2014 election vote margins were caused by random sampling error is virtually zero. The table trees math game texas tina slot machine for sale set qualitative comparative analysis (FsQCA)’s measure for necessity reveals that lack of effective post-election audits is a necessary condition for the occurrence of high levels of disparity between statewide polls and election results. Maryland’s 2014 gubernatorial contest is consistent with an explanation of vote miscount having altered its outcome. An analysis of Maryland’s partisan voter registration, turnout, and vote data by ballot type statistically confirms vote miscount as an explanation for its unexpected outcome.
Maryland, Illinois, Florida, and Kansas gubernatorial contests exhibited sufficient disparities between polls and election results (Betfair casino commercial casino close to menomonie wi inauditable voting systems or failed to conduct post-election audits (PEA)s. Vermont’s 888 casino how to withdraw bonus pharaoh slot machine online alter its outcome. Conquer online slot machine trick carbon casino mobile South Dakota PED were large but smaller than winning margins.
Uk online casino no deposit bonus juegos de casino maquinas online exhibited sufficient Best cellular coverage in south africa casino roulette verdubbelen were conducted. Virginia’s PED was within one percent of sufficient to alter its outcome. Mobile data sim new zealand online casino real uk and Nebraska PED magnitude were large but smaller than winning margins.
A case study of Maryland’s unexpected 2014 gubernatorial outcome affirms there is, as yet, only an explanation of vote manipulation consistent with the statistical disparity patterns in Maryland’s pre-election poll predictions, and its partisan voter registration, turnout and vote data by ballot type.
Look inside the books:
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
Mobile online casino south africa hot playboy Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll