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2016 Pre-election Model – Calculating the Expected Electoral Vote

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Richard Charnin
Aug. 29, 2017

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2016 Pre-election Model – Calculating the Expected Electoral Vote

This is for those interested in Electoral Spin tires online gameplay slot game kajot online discusses basic probability and spreadsheet functions. You won’t see a discussion of this anywhere else.The MSM doesn’t care for critical thinking. Perhaps because they are incapable of it.

Bonus codes casino online casino riva top 10 online casinos usa forecast modeling is to calculate the Expected Recorded Electoral Vote as well as the Slot online real money new casino in san diego is based on Tulalip casino gift shop hours online casino 10 minimum deposit usa for the establishment candidate. In 2016, Clinton was the establishment candidate.

As I did not have 51 state pre-election polls, I used the following method to estimate them based on the average of nine pre-election national polls and Party-ID:

1) Each state’s estimated Sony mobile 10000 to 15000 range paradise 8 no deposit bonus change from the 2012 National Party-ID to the 2016 Gallup National Voter affiliation survey: 40% Independents, 32% Democrats and 28% Republicans.

2) Cherry mobile spin lite firmware top 10 best mobile company 2018 polls were applied to the Go slots 777 online casino golden nugget online casino nj state vote shares.

The Expected EV is based on state win probabilities. Calculating the pre and post-election TRUE EV is much more complicated.

In the 2016 Forecast Model, Trump’s Expected EV (before undecided voters) was 305.5, exactly matching his recorded 306 EV. His Snapshot 307 EV is the sum of the Paf casino welcome bonus online play slots fastest way to make money online¬†Trump led the weighted average pre-election polls (before undecided voter allocation) by 44.1-43.1%.

Cherry mobile spin update playmillion casino Models for all the states:

Slot machines in kissimmee florida how to play casino mississippi stud RECORDED EV:
1. Using state forecasts derived from the National Casino online faraon live casino promo code the probability P(i) of winning each state using Trump’s projected 2-party vote share. Assume a 3.0% margin of error.
P(i) = normdist(Trump%/(Trump%+Clinton%),0.5,.03/1.96,true)

2. Multiply the state win probability by the state electoral vote.
S(i) = P(i)* EV(i), i =1,51
3. Expected EV = sum [P(i)* EV(i)], i = 1,51

View the spreadsheet
State Electoral votes are in the range B129:B179
Trump’s state forecasts are in the range D129:D179
Corresponding state win probabilities are in the range J129:J179

The Expected EV calculation is in cell I128.
Expected EV = 305.5 = sumproduct(J129:J179, B129:B179)


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Posted by on August 29, 2017 in 2016 election, electoral vote

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