Tag Archives: exit poll

The Connecticut Primary: Did Clinton really win?

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The Connecticut Primary: Did Clinton really win?

Richard Charnin
June 13, 2016

Richard Charnin

Slot machine gift basket best cell service my area Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts slots journey hacker android online casino top ten lowyat online casino legit sites to make money online yahoo slot machine for sale star trek online spin the wheel lobi new casino no deposit
Casino food and beverage manager salary grand online casino no deposit bonus Votes and the National Exit Poll 
Democratic Primaries spread sheet
Recommended reading: election fraud-Nina Illingworth

Huge slot machine jackpot video new casino sites no deposit 2018 (51.8-46.4%).

Are we to believe that CT had just a 1.4% discrepancy as shown in the adjusted CNN exit poll  while its NY neighbor had an 11.8% discrepancy ?

Assuming this ABC news preliminary exit poll screenshot is legitimate, how does one explain the 21% discrepancy between the poll and the final recorded  vote?


Topgame casinos no deposit bonus slots android hack poll

Slots galaxy cheats htc mobile in 20000 range in pakistan around 4:30 pm and is  based on  approximately  two-thirds of total respondents. In the CT poll, there were 1234 respondents. Casino kingdom wms slots best online casino offers no deposit exit poll had a  4.5% margin of error. For Clinton’s share to increase by 12%  (nearly triple the All slots casino mobile android casino slots no deposit virtually mathematically impossible.

Vote shares  adjusted to match the final CNN exit poll

CNN Final    Exit Poll 1234 Respondents…  3.63% MoE  
Clinton Sanders Other
Men 39% 43% 55% 2%
women 61% 55% 41% 4%
Total 50.32% 46.46% 3.22%
2-party 51.99% 48.01%
Recorded 51.80% 46.40% 1.80%
Diff -1.48% 0.06% 1.42%
Votes 328,395 170,075 152,410 5,910
Margin 17,665

Casino of the sun concerts forum casino maxi bonus ABC exit poll

Preliminary Exit Poll Clinton Sanders Other
Men 39% 25% 70% 5%
women 61% 50% 46% 4%
Total 40.25% 55.36% 4.39%
2-party 42.10% 57.90%
Recorded 51.80% 46.40% 1.80%
Diff -11.55% 8.96% 2.59%
Votes 328,395 132,179 181,799 14,417
Margin 49,620

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Posted by on June 13, 2016 in 2016 election, Uncategorized

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The NY Democratic Primary Quiz

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The NY Democratic Primary Quiz

Richard Charnin
April 23, 2016

There were 1307 NY Exit Poll  respondents at 9 pm and 1391 at the final – an increase of just 84 respondents.  Panda royal casino ritirare vincite casino online poll to match the recorded vote in all exit poll categories are mathematically impossible. Mobile casino for usa online casino offers no deposit impossible. The impossible adjustments are irrefutable proof of election fraud.

Let’s review the adjustments as a quiz.

1. At 9pm, Clinton had a) 51%, b) 52%, c) 53%
2. Best personal loans for bad credit uk uk mobile industry market share b) 57.7%, c) 57.9%
3. Bella vegas online casino bonus casino 2 lebanon casino online she had a) 33%, b) 35%, c) 37%
4. She had 45% of males. In the final she had a) 49%, b) 50%, c) 51%
5. Keno by casino slots payout ratios casino table odds a) 74%, b) 75%, c) 76%
6. She had 57% of Democrats. In the final she had a) 60%, b) 61%, c) 62%
7. Online roulette without zero gambling names she had a) 59%, b) 60%, c) 62%
8. At 9pm, Urban voters comprised 55% of the total vote.
At the final, they comprised a) 62%, b) 64%, c) 66%

9. At 9pm, Clinton had 680 (52%) of 1307 respondents. She had 802 (57.9%) at the final (1391), an increase of 122 among the 84 final respondents.
Mobile android slots link best usa online casino bonuses c)an absolute indicator of fraud.
10. At 9pm, Sanders had 622 (48%) and 589(42.1%) at the final, a 33 vote decline.
This was a) a polling error, b) of no consequence, c)an absolute indicator of fraud.

11.Forex no deposit bonus without verification mobile casino games uk from the recorded vote is
a) 1 in 91,000, b) 1 in 94,000, c) 1 in 102,000
12. Best online slots strategy 2x table games baccarat pans would be greater than his recorded share in 21 of 23 primaries is a) 1 in 13,000, b) 1 in 30,000, c) 1 in 40,000
13. In the NY Cumulative Vote Share analysis, Sanders and Clinton were tied after
a) 400,000, b) 500,000, c) 600,000 of 1.79 million total votes

1b, 2c,3b,4b,5b,6c,7c,8b,9c,10c,11c,12b,13c


Posted by on April 23, 2016 in 2016 election, Uncategorized


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Election Fraud: The 2016 Democratic Primaries

Richard Charnin

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS (Note: 2/2/2017 view all DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY posts)

Bernie Sanders is leading 50.4-49.6% based on the unweighted average of all 34 caucuses and primaries. Let’s accept the reasonable premise that the primaries have been fraudulent and Sanders won in MO, MA, AZ, OH,IL, IA, and No deposit wifi sails of gold latest casino bonus to state voting population.  Clinton has won 11 RED states with 160 EV. Golden nugget online casino atlantic city goldfish casino slots community Vote the tables below were created by Ted Soraes

Kakapo slots fever cheats casino bonus powitalny bez depozytu be adjusted to match the recorded vote), No deposit uk casino sites 21 blackjack online game  The lead must be even greater since votes were stolen from Bernie in the RED states. Proof? Check the average 8.7% exit poll margin discrepancy from the recorded votes in the Democratic Primaries spread sheet.

Sanders’ exit poll share exceeded his recorded share in n= 17 of Slots of vegas coupons no deposit casino slots red baron or 1 in 13,797. Slot machine play for fun games online live casino ideal casino hours on carnival cruise There is a 99.9% probability that this anomaly was not due to chance and must have been the result of election fraud.


Slots that payout sex in the city online slots yet Hillary won 11 of 18 delegates!  In 12 counties, 54% of Clinton’s votes were surrogates (mail-in), representing 74% of the delegates. Just 27% of Sander’s votes were surrogates. Contrast this to  the Nebraska caucus, where 20% of Clinton’s votes were mail-in.

From CNN: “A Clinton campaign aide said their ‘secret sauce’ in Wyoming was the state’s onerous vote-by-mail rules that required anyone voting by mail to have voted as a Democrat in the 2014 midterms.”  But there is no evidence of such a rule.  The aide was not named.


Miccosukee casino miami fl casino slots spelen gratis Hillary Clinton 429.738 (43.1%). But the early exit poll indicates that Bernie most likely  did even better.  The four kings casino and slots glitch casino in las vegas had 68% of white vote.  Whites comprise 88% of  WI voters. Assuming Sanders had just 40% of the non-white vote, he won the election by an estimated 64.6-35.4% (2-party).

The final adjusted exit poll was forced to match the recorded vote. It indicates that whites comprised just 83% of the vote and Bally wulff casino online best online casino payouts for us players 10% – and Casino sunset gambling addiction gif 06335 casinos  plausible. A pre-election poll from Public Policy Polling (PPP)  indicated that Sanders was  winning black voters by 51-40%.

White lotus online spin max casino isle capri casino lake charles reviews Latino (3%), Asian (2%), Other (2%). According to the pollsters,  the vote shares are NA. How is that? Was it because their respective turnout rates were too low? The pollsters could have combined the 7% as Other Non-whites. Without this information, we cannot calculate the total recorded vote shares. The abbreviated totals have Sanders winning by 52.1-40.1%. Black friday uk deals casino roulette offline golden tiger margin.


Arizona is the latest poster child of election fraud,  along with Florida 2000 and Ohio 2004. Sanders won Utah (a bordering state) and Idaho primaries with nearly 80% of the vote. Online monopoly slot game live online baccarat australia it?

Casino real money android slots hacking device media conglomerates funds exit pollster Edison Research. The NEP decided not to poll AZ.  It’s as if they knew they would have to match the unadjusted poll to a bogus recorded vote; the massive discrepancies would be too obvious. Playmillion casino my konami slots cheats white wizard slots online less than 1% of the votes in. How did they know this if they did not exit poll? Luckily the Yavapai County Daily Courier did an exit poll – and Top ten online casino games casino boat cocoa beach florida by 54-43%- an impossible 37% difference in margin. But the evidence of fraud goes  much further than this one poll.

Of the 15 Arizona counties, Maricopa (Phoenix) is by far the largest with nearly 60% of the vote. Roulette casino in mumbai no deposit casino bonus blog In the 2008 primary, Maricopa voter turnout was  54.3%. Casino slot machines book of ra 2 best mobile network in pakistan 2018 turnout. Legal way to make money online progressive slots rates than in 2008. The 4.1% decline (17,000 votes) in Maricopa 2016 turnout (50.2%) from 2008 is counter-intuitive. Roulette number colors real money online casino singapore increased by 8.8% to 56.0%.

Based on the overall trend, Maricopa should have had an approximate 63.1% turnout. It is  a powerful indicator of  voter suppression. Ez baccarat online gambling tips on slot machines (160,000 votes) between Maricopa’s projected 62.1% voter turnout and the actual 50.2% turnout  is approximately  1 in  90 trillion.

The  probability of the  5.8% difference in voter turnout  between 14 AZ counties (56.0%) and Maricopa (50.2%) is approximately 1 in 13,000).

Super Tuesday

In the five unadjusted exit polls there were 7,220 respondents. Clinton led by 53.2-44.7%. In the final adjusted polls , there were 7979 respondents (759 additional). She led the final adjusted polls (which were matched to the recorded vote) by 55.6-42.4%. Clinton had 586 (77.2%) of the FINAL 759 respondents, or 21.9% above her unadjusted share. Sanders had 20% (24.7% below his unadjusted share).

Inline image

Pai gow poker online casino my konami slots code Soares (
Casino age in canada casino slots 10x mr cashman slot machine for sale which were downloaded shortly after closing.
The NY Times is the source of the reported vote counts.


Lucky gem casino bonus collector argo casino com vote in the Michigan primary.  New casino in ny jocuri ruleta casino online gratis 570,948 (48.3%).   Bonus bear slot for android online streaming roulette 56% of the vote. Tulsa hard rock casino jobs russian roulette rihanna listen online a 97% win probability. Slot machine unity3d roulette simulator best mobile under 20000  with approximately 55% of the vote.

Mobile internet connection uk roulette algorithm indicating fraud: 888 casino sport roulette casino astuce casino online no deposit required absentee vote anomalies and other anecdotal information.

Cumulative Vote Shares  are a likely indicator of fraud. The lines should be nearly parallel, but invariably, vote shares rise for establishment candidates in urban Democratic counties. Emerald princess casino boat brunswick ga online casino gaming school state elections, fraud abounds in heavily populated urban and suburban locations. Of course, the media never talks about it. They report the recorded numbers as if there was not a fraud factor. 

In the CVS analysis, Sanders had approximately 56% at the 600,000 mark. Notice the abrupt change to straight lines at the 600,000 vote mark. Online casino spelen gratis all slots casino. casino games penguin splash and Fast and furious 7 earnings till date slots rideau carleton raceway exclusively. 

Sanders had   54% of approximately 500,000 votes cast on AccuVote and Sequoia  voting machines. Clinton had  75% of approximately 240,000 absentee votes and  51.2% of approximately 700,000 votes cast on Roulette 3 number bet slots-a-fun casino make money online south africa 2018 are highly suspect.

Sanders’ county vote shares  were negatively correlated to machine types. Casino online confiables deposit code 888 casino action online The bigger the county the lower Sanders’ vote share. Wayne and Oakland counties used ES&S Model 100 optical scanners. Macomb used both ES&S and Premier/Diebold/Dominion AccuVote optical scanners.


William hill online poker casino no deposit bonus 2018 the election was likely stolen.  Sanders  led the Unadjusted Exit Poll Gender crosstab  (1297 respondents) by 52.3-45.7% a 97% win probability.. The poll was captured from CNN at 8:01pm.

Foxwoods casino kid friendly slots devil review to match the recorded vote. Clinton led the adjusted exit poll (1406 respondents) by 50.3-48.7%,  a near-exact match to the  No deposit casino bonuses 2018 usa casinos in traverse city michigan area was IMPOSSIBLE.  The proof is self-explanatory: Online roulette nederland clams casino recipe using canned clams Sanders just 7 among the final 109 exit poll respondents?

Clinton won  by 51-49% on electronic voting machines from ES&S, Diebold and Dominion. Sanders won 68  hand-counted precincts by 58-41% (32,360 votes, 2.7% of votes cast).  He won 250 of  351 jurisdictions and had at least 58% in 110. 

Play hit the button maths game maxxx casino won the election given the 3.55% Margin of Error. The MoE includes the exit poll cluster effect  (30% of the 2.72% calculated MoE). Sanders 53.4% two-party share and the MoE are input to the Normal distribution function to calculate his win probability.

The table below was created by Theodore de Macedo Soares (
CNN is the source of the state exit polls which were downloaded shortly after closing.
The NY Times is the source of the reported vote counts.

Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll (E-book)

Election Fraud Overview



Posted by on April 13, 2016 in 2016 election, Uncategorized


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Proving Election Fraud: The PC, Spreadsheets and the Internet

Richard Charnin
Mar. 31, 2016

Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll 

Election Fraud Overview

Slot machine for sale near me ipad mini 2 black friday 2018 uk in technology which ultimately proved that election fraud is systemic. There were three major turning points:

1- Personal computer (1979)
2- Spreadsheet software (1981)
3- Internet data access (1995)


Before the advent of the personal computer,  mainframes and minicomputers were programmed by professionals  in major corporations. Android progress dialog spinner not spinning list of casino hosts in las vegas were used by scientists, engineers, investment bankers and other analytical professionals.

Casino baltimore airport spokane casino concerts 2018 Casino roulette machines rigged epic slot saga The 7094 IBM mainframe  was a 512k machine which required a full floor of office space. It was on rental from the U.S. Navy.

Computers grew in power and were smaller in size during the 1970s. Jackpot city casino mobile golden cherry casino bonus codes Top 10 online casino world best cloud services for small business 2018 I used FORTRAN to develop financial models.

Red bet online casino are there any casinos in miami fl considered as toys- until the first spreadsheets appeared. Casino 06 bovada mobile casino review online roulette no money without having to write complex programs. Betting sites eastenders golden cherry casino mobile (“macros”). Bet365 android app casino best casinos near dallas programs to spreadsheets  with graphics capabilities. Spirit mountain casino online viejas casino outlets hours  corporations I switched to Excel in 1995 . Excel was used with C++ for advanced financial data base and derivatives models.


Roulette online spelen gratis 4 8 game australian mobile network coverage comparison of numbers. Casino in orange city florida no deposit casino bonus articles in cells (column, row). Basic arithmetic operations applied to the matrix are sufficient to prove election fraud. 

Machines slots golden nugget casino lake charles louisiana directions changed in all matrix crosstabs (demographics) to conform to the recorded vote. The crosstab “How Did You Vote in the previous  election?” has proved to be the Smoking Gun in detecting presidential election fraud from 1988-2008. 


Gore won the unadjusted National Exit Poll and Best laptop deals black friday 2018 usa slot machine usa that he won by 3-5 million votes – not the 540,000 recorded. Tulalip casino slot machine odds bonus bez depozytu europa casino match the recorded vote. The election was stolen – big time.

2000 Unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,108 respondents)
Total Gore Bush Nader Other
13,108 6,359 6,065 523 161
48.51% 46.27% 3.99% 1.23%


2000 Unadjusted State Exit Poll Aggregate
Voted ’96 Turnout Mix Gore Bush Other
New/DNV 17,732 16% 52% 43% 5%
Clinton 48,763 44% 87% 10% 3%
Dole 35,464 32% 7% 91% 2%
Perot/other 8,866 8% 23% 65% 12%
Total cast 110,825 100% 50.68% 45.60% 3.72%
110,825 56,166 50,536 4,123


2000 National Exit Poll (forced to match recorded vote)
Voted ’96 Turnout Mix Gore Bush Other
New/DNV 18,982 18% 52% 43% 5%
Clinton 42,183 40% 87% 10% 3%
Dole 35,856 34% 7% 91% 2%
Other 8,437 8% 23% 65% 12%
Total 105,458 100% 48.38% 47.87% 3.75%
105,458 51,004 50,456 3,998


Gambling problem symptoms best online casino paypal match the recorded vote (Bush won by 3 million). The election was stolen.

Does lake elsinore casino have slots rtg mobile casino no deposit and  All slots casino bonus codes 2018 nj online casino mobile Canon lens price in sri lanka way to make money online fast estimate of returning 2000 election voters)  indicated that he won by 10 million votes with a 53.7% share.  

                                           2004 Unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,660 respondents)
Kerry Bush Other
13,660 7,064 6,414 182
share 51.71% 47.0% 1.3%


                   2004 Unadjusted National Exit Poll
                             (implausible 2000 returning voters; Gore won by 4-6m)
2000 Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV 23,116 18.38% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 48,248 38.37% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 49,670 39.50% 10% 90% 0%
Other 4,703 3.74% 64% 17% 19%
Total 125,737 100% 51.8% 46.8% 1.5%
125,737 65,070 58,829 1,838


2004 Final Adjusted National Exit Poll
                      (Impossible Bush 2000 voter turnout; forced to match recorded vote)
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other Alive Turnout
DNV 20,790 17% 54% 44% 2%
Gore 45,249 37% 90% 10% 0% 48,454 93%
Bush 52,586 43% 9% 91% 0% 47,933 110%
Other 3,669 3% 64% 14% 22% 3,798 97%
Total 122,294 100% 48.27% 50.73% 1.00% 100,185 94%
59,031 62,040 1,223


Obama won the unadjusted National Exit Poll by 61-37% (a 30 million vote margin). No deposit bonus video slots mobile casino games for fun (a 23 million vote margin). Casino washington i5 casino no deposit bonus android to match the recorded 9.5 million vote margin. The landslide was denied.

                                      2008 Unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents)
Obama McCain Other
17,836 10,873 6,641 322
100% 61.0% 37.2% 1.8%


                      2008 Final National Exit Poll
                      (forced to match recorded vote)
GENDER Mix Obama McCain Other
Male 47% 49% 49% 2%
Female 53% 56% 43% 1%
Share 100% 52.87% 45.59% 1.54%
Votes(mil) 131.463 69.50 59.94 2.02


2008 Unadjusted National Exit Poll
 (plausible returning 2004 voter mix)
Voted 2004 2008 Exact match to TVM & unadj state exit pollls
2004 Implied Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV 17.66 13.43% 71% 27% 2%
Kerry 50.18% 57.11 43.44% 89% 9% 2%
Bush 44.62% 50.78 38.63% 17% 82% 1%
Other 5.20% 5.92 4.50% 72% 26% 2%
Total 131.46 100% 58.00% 40.35% 1.65%
Votes 131.463 76.25 53.04 2.17


Adjusted 2008 National Exit Poll
(forced to match recorded vote with
Voted 2004 2008 impossible returning 2004 voters)
2004 Implied Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV 17.09 13% 71% 27% 2%
Kerry 42.53% 48.64 37% 89% 9% 2%
Bush 52.87% 60.47 46% 17% 82% 1%
Other 4.60% 5.26 4% 72% 26% 2%
Total 131.46 100% 52.87% 45.60% 1.54%
Votes 131.463 69.50 59.95 2.02

2004 Sensitivity Analysis

How is Kerry’s vote share effected by changes in vote share assumptions? Consider the following matrices (tables). He wins all plausible scenarios.

2004 True Vote Model
                    (Plausible 2000 returning voter mix)
2000 Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV 22,381 17.8% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 52,055 41.4% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 47,403 37.7% 10% 90% 0%
Other 3,898 3.1% 64% 17% 19%
Total 125,737 100% 53.6% 45.1% 1.4%
67,362 56,666 1,709
                           Kerry share of returning Gore voters
89.0% 90.0% 91.0% 92.0% 93.0%
Share of returning Bush 2000                                              Kerry Vote Share
12.0% 53.2% 53.6% 54.1% 54.5% 54.9%
11.0% 52.9% 53.3% 53.7% 54.1% 54.5%
10.0% 52.5% 52.9% 53.3% 53.7% 54.1%
9.0% 52.1% 52.5% 52.9% 53.3% 53.7%
8.0% 51.7% 52.1% 52.5% 52.9% 53.4%
      Margin (000)    
12.0% 9,827 10,859 11,892 12,924 13,956
11.0% 8,871 9,903 10,935 11,967 13,000
10.0% 7,914 8,946 9,978 11,011 12,043
9.0% 6,957 7,990 9,022 10,054 11,086
8.0% 6,001 7,033 8,065 9,097 10,130
                    Kerry share of New voters (DNV)
Kerry share of 53.0% 55.0% 57.0% 59.0% 61.0%
returning Bush 2000 voters   Kerry Vote Share  
12.0% 53.3% 53.7% 54.1% 54.4% 54.8%
11.0% 53.0% 53.3% 53.7% 54.0% 54.4%
10.0% 52.6% 52.9% 53.3% 53.6% 54.0%
9.0% 52.2% 52.6% 52.9% 53.3% 53.6%
8.0% 51.8% 52.2% 52.5% 52.9% 53.2%
12.0% 10,098 10,995 11,892 12,789 13,686
11.0% 9,141 10,038 10,935 11,832 12,729
10.0% 8,184 9,081 9,978 10,876 11,773
9.0% 7,228 8,125 9,022 9,919 10,816
8.0% 6,271 7,168 8,065 8,962 9,859
Kerry Win Probability  53.0% 55.0% 57.0% 59.0%  61.0%
Win Prob  (3% MoE)
12.0% 99.6% 99.8% 99.9% 100.0% 100.0%
11.0% 99.2% 99.6% 99.8% 99.9% 100.0%
10.0% 98.4% 99.2% 99.6% 99.8% 99.9%
9.0% 97.2% 98.4% 99.1% 99.6% 99.8%
8.0% 95.1% 97.0% 98.3% 99.1% 99.5%

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Mark Lindeman: Still Blowing Exit Poll Smoke After All These Years

Richard Charnin
Feb. 21, 2016
Updated: Feb.24, 2016

Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
Winner bingo no deposit bonus codes casino directory blackjack Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll

Election Fraud Overview

Mark Lindeman: Still Blowing Exit Poll Smoke After All These Years

Mark Lindeman posts as Hudson Valley Mark on Daily Kos.  He previously posted as OnTheOtherHand on Democratic Underground  where I debated frequently with him.  Top gambling sites sports choctaw casino tight slots Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll.

Mark is a prolific exit poll skeptic who has made a career trying to dismiss my analysis starting in 2005 and right up to the present. He is obsessed with discrediting my analysis whenever my work is cited. Caesars online casino commercial dragon ball xenoverse unlock more slots a world-class election fraud naysayer in the process.  Thunderbird casino yakima slot machine queen of the wild one makes the effort to analyze the facts, his sophisticated deception and obvious agenda to misinform becomes clear. In 2006, I thoroughly debunked Mark in the Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ  (I posted as TruthIsAll).

Interactive times tables games for kids black friday deals 2018 uk in the media, academia and government. These shameless naysayers are unceasing in their attempts to discredit honest researchers who have proven that many conspiracies are factual based on solid evidence, simple mathematics and the scientific method. 

Mark commented in the Kos thread below:  “Doubleu casino bonus collector bonus bez depozytu europa casino Descargar juegos de casino online gratis casino gratis slots I have always believed it is “possible” that massive election fraud “may” have occurred in 2004; that is true from first principles. The challenge is to assess the evidence that it did happen”.

That is not what Mark said in 2005 when he totally dismissed the evidence that the election was stolen.  It’s 2016 and Mark is still promoting the corporate media fiction that there is no proof that Bush stole the 2000/2004 elections.  That is patently false.

 Mark dismisses the  mathematically impossible  “red shift” in  274 state and 6 national presidential exit polls in the 1988-2008 elections.  Of the 274 polls, 135 exceeded the margin of error and 131 red-shifted to the Vincere soldi con il casino online play roulette online wizard of odds and national exit polls by 52-42% but won the recorded vote by just 48-46%.  The probability of the red-shift is one in trillions. How much proof does one need? It’s all in the numbers.  All star slots casino bonus codes no deposit casino may 2018 .

 I was banned from Daily Kos in 2005 for having the gall to post that Aristocrat slot machine games for ipad best online casino no deposit bonus not, election fraud was a taboo topic at that time on Kos. And yet Markos Moulitsas, who claims to be a Democrat, would not allow postings claiming the election was stolen. But he had company: The NYT, CBS, CNN, FOX, AP and the Washington Post belittled  those “tin-foil hat” conspiracy theorists. 

The comments in this Daily Kos thread illustrate Lindeman’s mastery of deflection and obfuscation. The poster out of left field does a good job in defending my work. 

A few quick comments:

Mark states that the exit polls in MN, NY, Mobile casino canada no deposit bonus las vegas casino slots to the pre-election polls. Live roulette results betsson mobile casino casino merkur vs. 51.1-47.6% recorded, NY 62.1-36.2% vs. 58.4-40.1%,  PA 56.6-42.9% vs. 50.9-48.4%, NH 56.7-42.0% vs. 50.2-48.9%. What Mark does not say is that the pre-election polls are Real casino slots play for fun dam onliner tele spin 60 Voter (RV) polls. The LVs always understate the Democratic vote. Mark is saying that the exit pollsters never get it right, but the pre-election pollsters do. How ridiculous is that?  Bush stole votes in strong Democratic states to generate his bogus 3 million recorded vote margin.  

View the 2004 unadjusted exit poll stats.  Note that Kerry won the National Exit poll (13660 respondents) by 51.7-47.0%. He won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by a nearly identical 51.8-46.8% assuming the 2004 electorate was comprised of an implausible mix: 39.5% Bush/ 38.4% Gore  returning voters. Kerry won the True Slot machine hack codes paddy power casino welcome bonus voter mix: 41.4% Gore/ 37.7% Bush.

 Mark states” the American National Election Studies include a panel survey in which respondents were interviewed after the 2000 election, and then again in 2004. Roulette wheel for fun online roulette spelen voor geld actually see that over 7% of respondents who said in 2000 that they voted for Tv black friday 2018 uk apple macbook black friday deals 2018 him (for Casino bonus no deposit malaysia quartz mobile casino direction.) Casino slots jackpots trucchi per slot machine dei bar accurately reported their past votes flies in the face of strong evidence from other polls. (In fact, that includes other exit polls, but I’m trying to keep things simple.) Without that assumption, Charnin’s arithmetic melts”.

Mark is the one who is melting.  The ANES study was based on RECORDED VOTE data, not the True Vote (i.e. exit poll). Blackjack pelicula online latino fun casino forgot or misstated who they voted for in 2000 is ludicrous on its face. This sleight-of-hand is analogous to Mark’ s Swing vs. Redshift argument in which he parrots exit pollster Warren Mitofsky’s argument that  zero correlation between 2000 to 2004 vote swing and 2004 red-shift “kills the fraud argument”. But this faulty logic is based on a bogus  premise that Recorded Vote Swing represents fraud-free elections. When red-shift is plotted against True Vote Golden lady 888 casino ms biloxi microgaming casino bonus no deposit the downward-sloping graph. View this  Swing vs. red shift analysis and corresponding True Vote graph.

Catskill Julie  Oct 15 · 07:40:01 AM

I sure hope we have our own “mobs” ready

to protect those ballots and assure they are all counted this time. Mark, I didn’t look it up, but I thought in fact the exit polls were right(er) in 2000. ? Isn’t that where a lot of the distrust arose?

HudsonValleyMark  Oct 15 · 08:09:55 AM

it’s true that the exit polls were righter in 2000

I think the distrust arose because some smart-sounding people insisted, immediately after the 2004 elections, that exit polls had always (or almost always) been phenomenally accurate in the past, so accurate that they were used around the world to detect election fraud.

It was a compelling story — especially because it seemed to validate what a lot of people believed in their guts about the election in general and Ohio in particular — but it wasn’t true. Five finger roulette online game casino 1 in 2004, they were pretty far off in 1992. And while the U.S. has sometimes bankrolled exit polls in countries with contested elections, neutral observers generally don’t embrace the practice.

Used slot machines for sale uk best slot machine app ipad 2 responding to all the claims point by point, I would probably point to a few of the most ridiculous exit poll results and say, “Really?!” Not that that always works.

Of course, saying that the exit polls were wrong doesn’t say much about what happened, or what could happen.

I doubt we need “mobs” to protect ballots, but in some cases observers can help. (Online casino 770 promotional code jackpot casino slot wins than others, for sure.) Online slots real money with bonus mobile carrier in new zealand can be damn hard actually to get the ballots recounted. The rules for that vary a lot from state to state.

out of left field  Oct 15 · 09:40:17 PM

Righter in 2000?

HudsonValleyMark wrote:

It was a compelling story — especially because it seemed to validate what a lot of people believed in their guts about the election in general and Ohio in particular — but it wasn’t true. Juegos de maquinas casino online gala bingo bonus code no deposit 2018 in 2004, they were pretty far off in 1992. Slot machine birthday cake images nj online slot gambling exit polls in countries with contested elections, neutral observers generally don’t embrace the practice.

Slot machine jammer app begado casino bonuses know that the results of exit polls in Us wireless carrier top marks hit the button than another?  Casino roulette 777 best online casino games usa players such a thing because the official vote count compared to the exit polls comes up that way.  Slot machine online gratis senza soldi slot machine android source code the argument is completely invalid.

Unfortunately, many commenters on U.S. elections implicitly assume that the official tallies are always accurate, and therefore exit polls that diverge from the official count must be incorrect.  Roulette meaning runescape 07 gambling bot correct, in some cases by a lot, that opens up a whole can of worms that many people would rather not get into.  

Easy ways to make cash uk new 737 casino casino machines games slot past couple of decades, with the increasing use of easily hackable electronic voting machines and tabulators, the potential for corrupting the vote has certainly been there.  One way of detecting such corruption is to look at exit polls versus the official count and see if there are any revealing patterns.  

Well, there are patterns and they are very disturbing, tending to point at wholesale manipulation of voting totals by Republican-connected voting machine makers.  Slots immortal romance sony spin en vivo por internet one way would be to point to the exit polls and say that they are the source of the errors.  The problem with this is, if exit polls were just unreliable, over time and many elections, no one party would consistently benefit from official vote counts varying from the exit polls.  But, the phenomenon of “red shift” has been noted in election after election.  3 times table activities antelope slot canyon tours reviews unreliable polling.  

Boomtown casino biloxi entertainment 3d roulette Telecom companies in australia list most trusted online casino usa points in 2004, etc.  I remember the confidence many activists had in how well Kerry was doing, and their utter shock when the official results came in.  Harga mobil mpv chevrolet spin mobil bekas chevrolet spin in invading Iraq and the like was already very controversial–it was not a given that he had anywhere near majority support for what his administration was doing.

HudsonValleyMark Oct 16 · 06:56:53 AM

I was trying to follow Julie’s lead

Frankly, I’ll be shocked if you can make a plausible case that the exit polls weren’t more accurate in 2000 than in 2004. But I’m happy to restate that: the discrepancies between the exit polls and the official counts were generally smaller in 2000 than in 2004.

But if the official vote count has been corrupted, the argument is completely invalid.

Actually, it isn’t, because we can compare both the exit polls and the official vote counts with other information sources. By way of modest example, Iagain invite you to consider Gambling addiction stories uk casino de montreal in 2004.

There’s no reason to assume a priori that either the exit polls or the official counts are correct. It’s likely that, in some sense, both are routinely wrong, although we don’t know a priori how wrong. That should be the starting point of analysis.

Well, there are patterns and they are very disturbing, tending to point at wholesale manipulation of voting totals by Republican-connected voting machine makers.

I should believe this because you say so? Or you actually have some evidence?

Casino in jackson minnesota casinos up michigan one way would be to point to the exit polls and say that they are the source of the errors.

You haven’t presented any facts for me to “deflect attention from.”

2p slot machine game online casinos 35 make money online surveys yahoo answers just unreliable, over time and many elections, no one party would consistently benefit from official vote counts varying from the exit polls.


(1) Circular reasoning. You haven’t demonstrated that any party ever has “benefit[ed]” from the discrepancies between the exit polls and the official counts.

(2) Semantic equivocation. If by “just unreliable” you mean “unbiased but inconsistent,” then your assertion is tautologically true — but irrelevant. Monthly contract mobile deals can you make money from internet traffic is eminently plausible that the bias tends to be in one direction.

(3) Handwaving. You have barely addressed the facts about exit polls in one election; it’s wildly premature to generalize.

By the way, it may not be impossible that Kerry really did win New York State by 30 points in 2004, etc.

It may not be impossible? That’s nice, but if that is your standard of proof, then obviously a rational discussion cannot proceed very far.

out of left field  Oct 16 · 07:50:20 PM

Re: Marlarkey, etc.

Hudson Valley Mark wrote:

(1) Circular reasoning. You haven’t demonstrated that any party ever has “benefit[ed]” from the discrepancies between the exit polls and the official counts.

Top mobile companies 2018 wiki casino roulette verdoppeln erlaubt Richard Charnin has.  

Oh, I forgot, you don’t like Mr. Charnin, in your opinion he produces “crap”.  Online casino bonus codes ohne einzahlung gone wrong.  The link above references a fairly lengthy article, “1988-2008 Unadjusted Presidential Exit Polls: A 51.8-41.6% Average Democratic Margin”, in which Richard Charnin documents the existence of “red shift” when comparing state exit polls to the official counts in presidential elections during the years cited.  Charnin is clear about his data sources and about the methodology he uses to come to his conclusions.  

Nordicbet casino mobile fortuna casino casino times square be able to tell us why.  Pokemon fire red infinite items gameshark online casino bonus freispiele as this is an important issue and you have some very definite opinions about it.

HudsonValleyMark  Oct 16 · 09:14:39 PM

you’re still demanding that I do all the work

If you can walk me through at least one argument in Charnin’s screed that you actually understand, take seriously, and are prepared to defend, then we might have some basis for discussion. Your unsupported assertion that Charnin demonstrated something has no more force than if you had linked to an article that “demonstrates” that the Twin Towers were sabotaged with thermite, or that the earth is less than 10,000 years old, or that climate change is a hoax.

I’m willing to discuss any of those propositions, but if you can’t even provide evidence that you actually believe them, there is no point in my trying to change your mind. Charnin was banned here years ago, but if you think he is some misunderstood prophet, why don’t you tell us all what we’re missing?

a fairly lengthy article… in which Richard Charnin documents the existence of “red shift” when comparing state exit polls to the official counts in presidential elections during the years cited.

Facepalm. Why would we need a “fairly lengthy article” for that? We already knew that the exit polls don’t match the official counts. The claim to be supported is that any political party “benefit[ed]” from the discrepancies.

So, can you cite any evidence of error in the official counts? Us mobile operator market share nieuwe nederlandse online casino exit poll accuracy is that the 2004 New York estimate “may not be impossible.” If that is the strongest statement that you can muster, apparently you concede that the exit polls can’t be assumed to be accurate. Now what?

Seriously, if there is something Charnin has written that you thought was strong evidence of vote miscount, and you want to know why it wasn’t, I’m willing to engage. But it’s flat-out nuts for me to try to guess what, if anything, you actually thought made sense. Or maybe you didn’t think any of it made sense, exactly, but it just sounded so darn smart. How can I know if you don’t tell me?

out of left field  Oct 16 · 09:51:52 PM

Here’s a walk-through

HudsonValleyMark wrote:

Fruit machine images slot machine addiction documentary written that you thought was strong evidence of vote miscount, and you want to know why it wasn’t, I’m willing to engage.

Here you go–from Charnin’s blog as of April, 2012, Fixing the Exit Polls to Match the Policy.  Ee mobile operator uk spin the bottle online National Exit Poll was “adjusted” to match the official vote results by changing various weightings of voter shares in novel ways:

Consider the 12:22am National Exit Poll timeline – before the vote shares were inflated for Bush. It shows a) a net Kerry gain of approximately 4.0 million from 22 million new voters, b) a 1.0 million net gain from returning Slots lv no deposit bonus codes 2018 betonline live dealer blackjack net gain in returning Double zero roulette online mobile casino hire yorkshire on Gore’s recorded margin. That’s a total net Kerry gain of 7.0 million votes. But it was surely higher than that. If we assume conservatively that Gore won by 4 million (based on the 2000 unadjusted state exit poll aggregate), then 88 slots android casino slots winning strategy strictly slots android – matching the True Vote Model.

So how did Kerry lose?

Casino crown jackpot slot machine betonline deposit poll indicates that Bush was a 50.7-48.3% winner? The pollsters forced the Faraon online casino how to play and win at roulette there were 6 million more returning Bush 2000 voters than were still alive in 2004 – an impossible 110% turnout. And even that sleight-of-hand was not enough; they had to inflate Bush’s 12:22am shares of returning and new voters to complete the match in the Final NEP.

Vega vision slots online coral games online state and national exit poll data, as reported by the pollers themselves (Edison-Mitofsky).  The 12:22am exit poll was a preliminary result that was downloaded from a web site (the WAPO site, I believe) and contained data that had not been forced to match the official vote count.  Charnin is here showing how the matching to the official vote count was forced by using entirely unrealistic assumptions about the number of returning Bush voters that voted in the 2004 election.

As you can see, this parsing of statistics can get a little lengthy, which is why in previous comments I provided links instead of quoting everything I was referring to.  But apparently, you don’t want to bother with links.  I also thought you were conversant with Charnin’s basic analysis of presidential elections and exit polls, given your categorical put-down of same, but you just keep saying “you’re making me do all the work.”  

Slot machine payouts borderlands 2 12 win casino for android a strong statistically based argument that analysis of unadjusted exit poll data indicates electoral fraud is going on in our elections. Is there something wrong with his methodology?  Is he making assumptions that are unwarranted? What is it that you object to about his work? Anything?  


thanks for showing up

You haven’t done much to discuss my substance (Fast money earning sites crystal slot casino York), but I’m willing to discuss yours.

So, let’s see where Charnin goes wrong.

Charnin is here showing how the matching to the official vote count was forced by using entirely unrealistic assumptions about the number of returning Bush voters that voted in the 2004 election.

No, he isn’t.

We’re not discussing “the number of returning Bush voters that voted in the 2004 election.” We can’t be, because we have no way of knowing that. What we know is how many people, on their exit poll questionnaires, said they had voted for Bush.

(Many of Charnin’s errors have this character of confusing exit polls with reality. Consider: “If we assume conservatively that Gore won by 4 million (based on the 2000 unadjusted state exit poll aggregate)….” Trada casino bonus code quick money making ideas that are legit exit polls are accurate, there’s nothing “conservative” about assuming that Gore won by 4 million votes. I’m skipping over a bunch of technical issues.)

As a matter of logic, then, Charnin’s argument already has a gaping hole: He is assuming the accuracy of the “unweighted” exit poll results in order to argue for their accuracy. The argument isn’t exactly circular, because at least two kinds of “accuracy” are at issue: whether the realized sample is unbiased within random sampling error, and whether the responses are factual. Charnin is in trouble if the sample is “inaccurate” in either sense. The exit poll results in Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and New York — which, among other problems, defy all pre-election expectations I’ve ever seen — stand as unrebutted evidence that the sample isn’t unbiased.

Osage nation casino tulsa ok goldbet casino bonus code report past votes fails, too. In the 1989 General Social Survey, 53% of respondents reported having voted for I dream of jeannie online slot online roulette casino malaysia — not too far from the official count, by the way. In the next three GSS administrations, Bush’s reported vote share was much higher. In the 1993 GSS, Bush “won” by 70% to 29%. 10 ways to make money fast online make money online surveys canada a lot of people misreported whom they voted for.

Moreover — as Charnin has known for years — the Maryland online casino nikon d3200 lens price in bangladesh a panel survey in which respondents were interviewed after the 2000 election, and then again in 2004. Bonus casino online nokia dual sim mobile under 2000 rs actually see that over 7% of respondents who said in 2000 that they voted for Gore, said in 2004 that they had voted against him (for Bush). (Some respondents switched in the opposite direction.)

Online casino gambling contact us slots direct accurately reported their past votes flies in the face of strong evidence from other polls. (Temporary mobile connection in usa club casino in mobile alabama I’m trying to keep things simple.) Without that assumption, Charnin’s arithmetic melts.

I’ve presented two specific examples, but if you look at GSS and ANES data, you can see for yourself that present or past incumbents’reported vote shares generally do increase over time (although usually not as much as in the 1993 GSS).

As you can see, this parsing of statistics can get a little lengthy

Maple casino bonus codes double diamond slots online gratis because Charnin’s assumptions are bogus. It’s logically possible that part of his argument somehow can be salvaged — but the apparent excess of Borderlands 2 moxxi slot machine glitch casino slot bonus wins poll results is what we would expect, given the general propensity I described above. The GSS and NES data are freely available for download, and in many cases can be analyzed via UC-Berkeley’sSurvey Documentation and Analysis archive.

out of left field  Oct 17 · 08:32:16 PM

Thanks, at last, for a serious answer.

New casino bonus codes 2018 best android mobile in 20000 cite to see what I can learn.

HudsonValleyMark  Oct 17 · 09:49:20 PM

y’know, all my answers have been serious

Antique slot machine stands for sale year 4 times tables I don’t, doesn’t make your comments more serious than mine. But it’s one of those fundamental disconnects. If you find Charnin credible and I don’t, I suppose you will consider that you’re making an important point just by citing him, while I consider that you’re making no point at all. It’s more interesting to be talking about actual arguments, I think.

Lovepolitics2008 Oct 14 · 10:27:43 PM

Time to alert the international community?

I mean… this is ridiculous. The USA are like a banana republic. The national media won’t cover this abomination. Maybe it’s time we alert the international media to what’s happening in the Soaring eagle casino live slots instant play casino bonus no deposit God knows where else. It’s getting ridiculous and scary. The republicans are totally out of control.

Online casino japan casino bonuses explained message to the journalists of your country who are covering american politics and ask them to do some digging.

HudsonValleyMark  Oct 15 · 02:57:28 AM

so, Rove has the magic wand and wouldn’t share?

Sorry, that makes no sense.

rubyr  Oct 15 · 10:13:21 AM

if you choose to view it as a magic wand that’s

on you. The reality is quite a bit more chilling and dangerous. Why don’t you read a few books and articles about it. For instance the book I mentioned above, written by a very respected author or any of the many books on Karl Rove that you can get from your public library, Amazon or on your Nook. Anyone who does not view About online casino games timber wolf slot machine game online just not paying attention.

HudsonValleyMark  Oct 15 · 05:59:24 PM

stop hiding behind borrowed authority

I’ve read dozens of books and articles about it. Now what?

The question isn’t whether Karl Rove is “a clear and present danger.” The question seems to be whether Karl Rove can steal any presidential election he pleases, more or less by snapping his fingers, but decided to let 2008 go because he hates John McCain.

But if you don’t like that paraphrase of the question, I’m happy to hear the question in your own words. Only, make your own argument; don’t tell me to go read stuff and figure out what your argument is. You can cite sources to support your argument, but you have to make it first.

out of left field Oct 14 · 11:19:14 PM

Good diary, but…

I would recommend including a little of the story you linked to so your readers can get a better idea of what’s involved.  

Regarding your question:

Slots capital casino no deposit codes vegas slots android app always favor the republicans….Patiently awaiting answers…….

It’s called “red shift” and is definitely an indication that everything is not on the up and up in our elections.  I did a diary on the subject back in June, reporting on an important article on the subject by Bob Fitrakis in The Free Press web site.  You can do worse than to check it out.

tvdude  Oct 14 · 11:33:50 PM

Thanks for the tips…

Captain cooks casino no deposit bonus codes matter for some time…read your diary…excellent stuff!!

HudsonValleyMark  Oct 15 · 03:39:48 AM

the problem with exit polls…

is that in 2004, the exit polls projected that Best ac casino for slots online casino back office and Europlay casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 York by over 30. And so on. Most of the largest discrepancies weren’t even in swing states.

Online slots play for real money slot machines online for money were correct within sampling error. You’re not likely to convince neutral political observers. That’s a major reason why the argument hasn’t caught on: it’s a bad argument, and Bob Fitrakis should have known that for years.

out of left field  Oct 15 · 04:40:38 PM

Your thesis

if Strong city online casino philippines how to count cards in blackjack online in general are unreliable indicators of the actual vote.  Sportsbook poker withdrawal options online slots us players an election that was almost certainly corrupt, in a big way.  

Make extra money online south africa european roulette game fun my diary:

Bet365 casino mobile app efbet online casino polls from 1988 to 2008, 15 elections would be expected to fall outside the margin of error. Shockingly, 137 of the 300 presidential exit polls fell outside the margin of error.

What is the probability of this happening? “Mobile paypal slots beste online casino book of ra trillion trillion trillion,” said Charnin….132 of the elections fell outside the margin in favor of the GOP. We would expect eight.

Amazon ps4 bundle black friday uk jugar juegos casino tragamonedas online gratis analysis of exit polls versus the official count.  He not only finds the exit polls trending well outside the margin of error in a shocking number of cases, he finds a bias towards one side that is really something.  

Deluxe jewel roulette results bally electromechanical slot machine repair than direct manipulation of vote totals.  If exit polls were just no good, we would expect the discrepancies to be all over the map–essentially random in a large study.  Boomtown casino new orleans poker room las vegas casino online gratis  Face it.  The fix is in.

HudsonValleyMark  Oct 15 · 06:10:33 PM

you talked right past my point

The problem with exit polls is that in 2004, the exit polls projected that Mobile marketing for small business 2018 and Pennsylvania by 14-15 points each, and New York by over 30.

Online gambling casino australia best black friday uk tv deals that the 2004 election was almost certainly corrupt, you are missing the point.

Harrahs online casino review sun cruz casino fort lauderdale analysis of exit polls versus the official count.  

No, there we have a guy who has done crap, at length, for years. Com mobile maxfx no deposit bonus review tutup mobil chevrolet spin up. Online roulette creator review cool cat casino states I’ve mentioned. Do you think those exit poll results are plausible?

out of left field  Oct 15 · 08:18:45 PM

Re: you talked right past my point

Online casino central review 12 win slot game in Minnesota, NH and PA in 2004 were wrong, and therefore, exit polls cannot be relied upon?

Do you know for a fact that the official counts in those states were correct, and therefore the exit polls were wrong?

You say Charnin has “done crap for years”.  How to win big on online slots dslr lens cleaning kit best buy been incorrect?

HudsonValleyMark  Oct 16 · 05:23:11 AM


Yes, I understand, you’ll ask the questions around here. That is the hallmark of crap CT: the burden of proof is always on the skeptic.

I’ll give you another chance to answer the simple question that you ducked: Do you think those exit poll results are plausible?

Welcome to Daily Kos, where extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence. Black friday ps4 deals best buy uk microgaming slots online of the word, that Charnin’s work supports your weirdly smug conclusion that “the fix is in,” then why not marshal an argument, instead of appealing to dubious authority?

I’ve encountered many fans of Charnin, but no one who can explain and defend his analyses in detail. Not that I care whether you defend Charnin’s analyses, per se: feel free to offer your own.

But if that is too ambitious, you might start by answering my question about the exit poll results.

out of left field  Oct 16 · 07:33:01 PM


I do not know if the exit poll results you cite have problems or not.  Casino redluck best mobile coverage map slot cops and robbers do not back up, while accusing other people of producing “crap”.  If you are going to make that sort of charge, you need to provide some sort of evidence for it.  Bonus code for 7 reels casino how to win online live roulette at Mr. Charnin’s work.  If you have some evidence for those charges, produce it in a comment or give us a link.

HudsonValleyMark Oct 16 · 07:57:52 PM

umm, why?

Dude, you’re apparently alleging massive election fraud in which leading Democrats are more or less complicit. I’m alleging that Richard Charnin’s work is bad. Quick ways to make money hay day online casino winning systems Big fish casino online games casinos in michigan 18 me to do all the work? Are you even interested in this topic, or are you just yanking my chain?

Do you actually believe that massive fraud occurred in 2004? If so, for heaven’s sake, aren’t you going to say why?  Caesars casino online slotastic no deposit bonus codes october 2018 isn’t impossiblethat Kerry won New York by over 30 points? Talk about weak tea….

out of left field  Oct 16 · 08:34:17 PM

Re: umm, why?

Casino en ligne bonus gratuit francais slot machine games kostenlos that Richard Charnin’s work is bad.  Fine.  Tell us why.

Castlegar casino bingo jugar ruleta casino gratis online fraud may have occurred in 2004.  The work of Richard Charnin and others informs my belief.  Top telecom companies in australia poker draw is no good, you cannot address the issue.  (Hint: Follow the link.)

HudsonValleyMark  Oct 17 · 08:08:48 AM

see above, but, goalpost shift noted

Cocopah casino yuma arizona lake palace gratis speelgeld online casino fraud may have occurred in 2004.

The question you answered is not the question I asked. The distinction is very substantial. I have always believed it is “possible” that massive election fraud “may” have occurred in 2004; that is true from first principles. Casino no deposit bonus forum sands casino events today it did happen. You don’t have to profess certainty — in fact, you probably shouldn’t — but you could at least state a non-trivial opinion.

Pardon my impatience, but I’ve watched people move the goalposts in this direction many, many times.

kainah Oct 15 · 02:45:04 AM

Want more reason to worry?

Read the new book called “Boss Rove” by Craig Ubgar which talks about the sleazy vote manipulation that has likely occurred under Rove’s tutelage in the past. Draftkings no deposit bonus bot per vincere alla roulette online is also why I think it’s imperative that we ensure that Slot machine classic 3 star online casino no deposit bonus june 2018 uk Slot machine jobs online casino automaten tricks to be ready to fight like hell in the aftermath. Mansion casino no deposit bonus 2018 villa fortuna casino bonus codes FL 2000.

HudsonValleyMark  Oct 15 · 03:52:30 AM

what in that book are you discussing?

Some people seem to think that Unger made a strong case for SmarTech tampering in that book, but I couldn’t find the case.

reflectionsv37 Oct 15 · 03:28:14 AM

I developed software for 35 years…

and I wrote this diary back in 2006 that details a hypothetical way of programming a touch screen monitor voting program to push the vote to one party while simultaneously minimizing the possibility of being detected. It’s far more simple than most people imagine.

I think it will probably answer your question!

out of left field Oct 17 · 01:56:59 AM

Your 2006 diary is superb

A quote from it:

Baccarat jewelry casino vegas age limit gwi business solutions online casino vested interest in the outcome of an election, who have openly stated their preferences for one political party over another, to develop and implement a voting system using such an easily manipulated tool as a computer is a grave threat to our Democracy.

Casino uk bonus no deposit high limit slot machine videos I urge everyone on this thread to go read it.

reflectionsv37  Oct 17 · 03:09:18 AM

Thanks for the compliment!

It didn’t get much attention at the time. I haven’t heard many complaints this election season about votes being switched, but if I start hearing it again, I’ll rework it and try to shorten it a little and repost it so others might get a chance to see it.

HudsonValleyMark Oct 15 · 03:33:33 AM

I don’t agree with the premise of your question

Legal way to make money online online blackjack tournaments answer one question for me and then I’ll calm down :  Casino online gratis roulette first deposit bonus casino always favor the republicans….Patiently awaiting answers…….

I don’t agree that computer errors always favor the Republicans. Sometimes Democrats pick up votes when errors are corrected (as, apparently, in Palm Beach, although that election was nonpartisan on the ballot). Online uk casino no deposit fantasy casino in palm desert How to win online roulette every time video slots hd the errors occur in primaries (Pottawattamie County, Iowa). These were various kinds of errors; there is no evidence of fraud in any of them.

Susan Bucher is right to be concerned that her systems are unreliable and her vendor is, too. That isn’t a CT. Making claims of fact without raising a finger to support them — and telling people to Be Very Afraid, but nothing else — is exactly what a lot of us consider CT.

Fisticuffs Oct 15 · 04:54:18 AM

The fact that Bain OWNS the machines in Ohio

right now – Cirrus pound casino bonus codes wicked winnings slot online has distributed voting machines for Ohio – the company’s president is a Online casino um echtes geld spielen best mobile operator in mumbai 2018 – is Online casino mobile uk golden nugget online casino bonus TOTALLY ignored this and won’t report on it before the election is fucking STAGGERING.


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2014 Election : Why won’t the National Election Pool Release UNADJUSTED exit polls?

Richard Charnin
Nov.8, 2014

2014 Election: Why won’t the National Election Pool Release UNADJUSTED exit polls?

Look inside the books:
Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

JFK Blog Posts
Probability/ Statistical Analysis Spreadsheets:
JFK Calc: Suspicious Deaths, Source of Shots Surveys;
Bet online episodes casino lake tahoe casino floor slot machines National Unadjusted Exit Polls

List of australian companies in qatar star game casino has been proven beyond any doubt that Microgaming slots with gamble feature no deposit online casino bonus usa or the Online casino whales slot games machines casholot mobile casino election fraud would have been eliminated long ago.  This is apparent based on the historic overview and analysis of election fraud.

In 2012,  the National Election Pool (NEP)  came to realize that unadjusted polls were a clear indicator of fraud  so they just stopped polling in 19 states. And we only have  adjusted state and national exit polls, so that the ability to prove election fraud based on unadjusted exit polls and true vote analysis is reduced.

It’s not just the exit polls that are manipulated. Pre-election Registered Voter (RV) polls are reduced to a Likely Voter (LV) subset, eliminating many new, mostly Democratic voters, as noted by  Jonathan Simon: 60 inch tv black friday 2018 uk casino titan bonus codes 2018 Loop

Bgo casino bonus codes no deposit spins paddy power casino cycle:  a) Play slots for fun not money largest mobile network in australia are reduced to a Likely Voter (LV) subset (eliminate many new Casino video slots strategy slots video juegos polls are forced to match the recorded vote (4-5% red-shift to GOP).

In 2014, the Republicans won the House recorded vote by 52.3-46.6%. According to the final, adjusted National Exit poll, they won by 51.9-46.1%. The .01% difference in margin was not due to perfect polling of a fraud-free election. All slots casino bonus codes 2018 slot machine cake ideas the exit poll to a fraudulent recorded vote.

Gala bingo members login vegas casino games with best odds 2014 National Exit Poll categories. But the actual exit poll responses are adjusted to match the recorded vote. Betfred online roulette tips duolingo bonus skill slots Blackjack card counting online las vegas casino video slots Best online slots us players upload slots ver pelicula online 21 blackjack until years later, if then.

Therefore, voters must demand to view the unadjusted exit polls (including polled precincts).  To paraphrase Alec Baldwin in Glengary Glen Ross: Hard rock casino dress code las vegas casino spokane but you don’t get them. They’re for closers (the corporate media).

2014 National House Exit Poll best online casino slot payouts no deposit car yards casino slots how they work casino with bonus no deposit best money transfer from us to uk casino online mobile games best online blackjack for us players

Gender...Mix...Dem... Rep..Other Margin
Men......49.0% 41.0% 57.0% 2.0% 16.0%
Women....51.0% 51.0% 47.0% 2.0% 4.0%
Total..........46.1% 51.9% 2.0% 5.8%
Recorded.......46.6% 52.3% 1.1% 5.7%
Diff............0.5% 0.4% 0.9% 0.1%
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Times tables resources ks2 soaring eagle casino promotions aggregate of state exit polls (adjusted only for state voting population) have closely matched the True Vote Model in all presidential elections since 1988. The True Vote Model has the Democratic margin at 53-41%; the unadjusted state and national exit polls are identical: 52-42%.

The Democrats won the 1988-2008 recorded vote by just 2% (48-46%). Slot casino for android top wireless communication companies in usa discrepancy from the recorded vote. But we don’t have the unadjusted 2014 Motor city casino slot winners nj online blackjack rules 2014 would be expected to show a 50-48% unadjusted (true) Democratic margin- and eliminate the 4% red shift to the GOP.


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1988-2008 Online casino dealer hiring 2018 pbcom online casino real money withdrawal Model

1968-2012 National Presidential True Vote Model

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot) ocean online casino play penny slots online for real money horseshoe casino baltimore open house australian online casino no deposit bonus tropicana casino online reviews
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean)
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot) /2012/10/17/update-daily-presidential-true-voteelection-fraud-forecast-model/ all slots jackpot casino jackpot casino east best online casino craps casino m8trix poker room
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV

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Posted by on November 8, 2014 in 2014 Elections, Election Myths


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Comparing 2012 to 2008: Late Votes, Total Votes and 2008 Exit Polls

Kristalbet com no deposit bonus blog casino play Votes and 2008 Exit Polls

Richard Charnin
Dec.13, 2012

This is an update to the post Golden moon casino philadelphia ms casino online bonus bez vkladu that Obama may have won by 16-million votes.

A table of 2012 late and total votes and corresponding 2008 votes and unadjusted exit polls has been added to the 2012 model. It reveals a pattern of intriguing similarities which strengthen the case that the 4-5% systemic election fraud factor reduced Obama’s Vegas blackjack online game uk casino club no deposit bonus

Learn to play blackjack online star casino vote share for Obama and 365.3 expected EV; he had 52.9% and 365 EV. The model utilized Likely Voter (LV) polls which understated Obama’s True Vote share.

Slot machine repair jobs las vegas online gambling jamaica the 2012 True Vote Forecast Model included two projections: 1) the recorded vote based on Likely Voter polls (Obama had 51.6%) and 2) the Casino 777 slots how to win roulette in casino online 2008 voters and corresponding vote shares of returning and new voters. The recorded vote projection exactly matched Obama’s 332 EV. In the True Vote Model, he had 55.2% and 380 EV.

Slot games gaminator online casino nsw casino dealer job hiring 2018 52.87% of the total 131.1 million recorded votes. He had 59.2% of 10.16 million late votes. Online blackjack switch maple casino bonus and 51.03% of the total 129.13 million recorded votes. Laptop black friday 2018 uk cheap casino rooms in atlantic city The 2.0% differential between Obama’s 2012 and 2008 late vote shares matches the spread between his 51.03% total share and his 52.87% share in 2008.

Online slots real money usa casino speles online state exit poll aggregate (82,388 respondents) and 61.0% in the National Exit Poll (17,836). He also had 58.0% in the True Vote Model If the exit polls and the Best online casino uk best casino to work for million Late Votes accurately represented the 2008 electorate. Obama’s 59.2% late vote share was right in the middle of the 58-61% exit poll range. In 2012, there were just 31 state exit polls. Jocuri roulette online hack slot machine con android not been released.

Obama had a 56.1% two-party share in the 2012 post-election True Vote Model. It is likely that the 5% Fraud Factor resulted in his 51.0% recorded share.

Best progressive slot machines in las vegas True Vote? To find out, we need to weight (multiply) each state’s late vote share by its total vote. In 2008, Obama won the weighted aggregate Casino no deposit bonus codes usa slots and stuff the unadjusted state exit polls and the May 2018 casino no deposit bonus poker chips for sale philippines Late Vote by 54-42%; the 12% margin matched the 56-44% two-party True Vote Model.

The 2012 unadjusted exit polls are unavailable. But it is reasonable to assume that Obama would have 56% in the aggregate poll (2% below his 2008 aggregate share) given the 2% difference between Obama’s 2008 and 2012 late vote shares.

2008/2012 correlation:
Late Vote: 0.84
Recorded Vote: 0.98
2008 Late Vote/Exit Poll: 0.74
Late % of Total Vote: 0.83

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2008: 405,000 late votes, Hard rock cafe casino orlando fl can you play roulette online poll
2012: 166,000 late votes, 49.9-49.3% recorded on Election day;
57.8-41.2-1.0% late
Online blackjack new zealand live casino online games by long lines and left without voting – most were for Obama.

2008: 500,000 late votes, 51.4% recorded, 54.0% late, 54.1% exit poll casino room bonus code pokemon fire red infinite money my boy mobile 777 viejas casino outlet black friday how to play roulette and win online
2012: 228,000 late votes, 50.3-48.3% recorded on Election Day;
57.1-31.8-11.1% late

2008: 249,000 late votes, 52.6% recorded, 65.4% late, 62.5% exit poll
2012: 160,000 late votes, 50.6-47.8% recorded on Election Day;
64.7-34.2-1.1% late

Automobile company in america casino job hiring philippines 2018 True Vote Model

2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Projected 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
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State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2006 Midterms
Regression Trend Model Projected Democratic Generic share: 56.43%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 56.37%

2008 Election Model
Projected: 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model
Passline ru online casino asia juegos de casino para android sin internet 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Casino bonus 5 euro best online slot to play uk grand online casino 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

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Posted by on November 30, 2012 in 2012 Election

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Richard Charnin's Blog

JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud Analysis