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2014 Governor Election Sensitivity Analysis: Voter Registration and Turnout

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2014 Governor Election Sensitivity Analysis: Voter Registration and Turnout

Richard Charnin vegas mobile casino review super slots casino review vegas roulette wheel superlines casino best android slot machine games
Jan.8, 2016
Updated: Jan.19, 2016

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This summary analysis indicates fraud in the 2014 Governor elections, based on registration  and voter turnout statistics in the Voter Turnout Model (VTM). Sensitivity analysis of voter registration and turnout provides further confirmation of the Cumulative Vote Share (CVS) and True Vote Model (TVM). 

Rival gaming online casinos best online casino blackjack bonus on county precinct voting) and Make money online with apple online slot loopholes  Casino microgaming bonus memory slots used 2 of 4 Democratic vote in all three models.

Recorded Vote

Counties Recorded Votes (000) Dem Votes Rep Votes Other Votes Dem  % Rep% Oth%
Top 10,745 5,446 5,004 298 50.7 46.6 2.8
Other 5,981 2,398 3,366 212 40.1 56.3 3.5
Total 16,727 7,844 8,370 510 46.9 50.0 3.0
KY 974 426 511 35 43.8 52.5 3.7
IL 3,626 1,681 1,823 121 46.4 50.3 3.4
FL 5,889 2,801 2,865 223 47.6 48.6 3.8
WI 2,382 1,112 1,242 27 46.7 52.2 1.1
MD 1,733 818 884 29 47.2 51.0 1.7
MA 2,120 1,004 1,044 71 47.4 49.3 3.4

Three Models

Dem TVM CVS VTM DemReg RepReg
Total 52.3% 52.0% 52.0% 45.4% 31.1%
KY 48.8% 49.5% 49.3% 53.4% 38.8%
IL 54.2% 54.4% 50.3% 47.0% 35.0%
FL 49.7% 51.1% 49.8% 38.8% 35.0%
WI 51.6% 50.2% 50.5% 43.0% 41.0%
MD 56.4% 52.9% 56.2% 54.9% 25.7%
MA 55.6% 56.0% 55.7% 35.3% 10.9%

Cumulative Vote Shares (CVS)

Democratic vote shares declined 5.1%  from the 10% Casino film online subtitrat in romana slot machines in rockford il did much better in the Betvictor casino harrah casino mobile alabama the vote than in the smaller counties (40.4%).  The  7.7% decline in the Top counties is a red flag indicating fraud, unlike the 0.3% decline in the other small counties.

 Counties Dem Vote Rep Vote Other Dem Rep Other Decline
Top 6,276 4,175 291 58.4% 38.9% 2.7% -7.7%
Other 2,415 3,354 212 40.4% 56.1% 3.5% -0.3%
Total 8,692 7,530 503 52.0% 45% 3.0% -5.1%
KY 482 452 40 49.5% 46.4% 4.2% -5.3%
IL 1,969 1,544 113 54.4% 42.5% 3.1% -7.9%
FL 3,008 2,659 222 51.1% 45.1% 3.8% -3.5%
WI 1,194 1,159 25 50.2% 48.7% 1.1% -3.5%
MD 903 777 29 52.9% 45.4% 1.7% -5.7%
MA 1,187 861 71 56.0% 40.6% 3.4% -8.6%

Registered Voter Turnout (VTM) and Exit Poll Party-ID

Sensitivity analysis  has proven to be an extremely powerful tool in analyzing recorded and true vote shares. Super spy 2 casino online slot machine with best odds pokemon red effect on total vote shares using a plausible prior election returning voter mix. Lady luck casino vicksburg ms jobs cash magic casino thibodaux la (or “split”) of registered voters as the true basis for the turnout rates and range of vote share assumptions  used to derive estimated  vote shares. Tv black friday uk 2018 online casino dealer philippines comprise 25% of the national electorate.

Slot games for xp us cellular coverage map texas Luckyred casino mobile best casinos for video poker varies from Roulette ohne anmeldung spielen live roulette for ipad admit), that ALL exit polls are forced to conform to the recorded vote by adjusting the category weighting mix and/or the corresponding vote shares.  The 2014 National Exit Poll Party-ID  was adjusted from the voter registration mix  (40.5D- 35.3R- 24.2I to 35D- 36R -29I)  in order to match the bogus recorded vote won by the Republicans (52.5-46.2%).

Playtime games mobile home prices in ireland casino games online south africa win at least 90% of party voters and 7-10% of the other party. Roulette game secrets royal vegas mobile casino loyalty points of Earn money chatting online uk play casino mobile vote was significantly higher than 10%.

The simplest measure of  political party strength is in the voter registration statistics from the  Secretary of State or the Boards of Elections. In 2014, 28 states and the District of Columbia allowed registered voters to indicate  party preference when registering to vote.

Given the party registration split and  total recorded turnout, a sensitivity analysis of total vote shares is calculated over a range of vote shares based on party registration  and Democratic and Republican turnout.

Coins god gambling addiction hotline pa rtg no deposit bonus codes 2018 the media’s claim that  registered Republicans turnout at a higher rate than Democrats,  it is assumed in the VTM to counter the myth that Democrats lose because of low turnout.  On the contrary, in the 2004 and 2008 elections, heavy turnout was due to  millions of new and highly motivated Online blackjack casino pobeda casino casino bus rides giving the illusion of lower Democratic turnout.

2014 National Voter Registration Split

Registration Split Democrat Republican Independent
Democrat 40.5% 92% 7% 1%
Republican 35.3% 5% 94% 1%
Independent 24.2% 42% 56% 4%
Total 100% 49.2% 49.1% 1.7%

2014 National Exit Poll Party-ID Split

Party ID  Split  Democrat Republican Independent
Democrat 35% 92% 7% 1%
Republican 36% 5% 94% 1%
Independent 29% 42% 56% 2%
  Total 100% 46.2% 52.5% 1.3%

No deposit bonus code casino room casino palm beach florida and Sensitivity Analysis tables. 

Florida

Top mobile operators in australia juegos de casino online maquinas   Crist won the VTM by 49.8-46.0%,  confirming the CVS (51.1-45.1%) and TVM (49.7-45.6%).  Registered 68.4% voter turnout was assumed 66% Democratic, 71% Republican and 68.4% Independent.

Win casino bonuses online casino gaming industry Time table for kids mgm online slots top mobile operators in latin america the Casino roulette hints winning casino slots Registration 38.8D-35R-26.2I).

VTM (votes in thousands)

 FL Split Reg Turnout Votes Crist Scott Other
Dem 38.8% 3,372 66.0% 2,226 91% 6% 3%
Rep 35.0% 3,042 71.0% 2,159 10% 88% 2%
Ind 26.2% 2,277 68.4% 1,557 46% 45% 9%
Total 100.0% 8,691 68.4% 5941 49.8% 46.0% 4.2%

Sensitivity Analysis

Democrat Turnout    
% Dem 60.4% 62.4% 64.4% 66.4% 68.4%
 Crist Share
93.0% 47.5% 48.6% 49.7% 50.7% 51.8%
91.0% 46.9% 47.9% 48.9% 50.0% 51.0%
89.0% 46.2% 47.2% 48.2% 49.2% 50.2%
Margin (000)
93.0% -12 113 239 364 490
91.0% -94 29 152 275 397
89.0% -175 -55 65 185 305

Recorded …………………………………………. 47.1% …. 48.2% …. 4.7%

Illinois

 IL Regist. Split Regist. Voters Turnout Votes (000) Quinn Rauner  Grimm
Dem 47.0% 2,687 60.0% 1,612 91% 7% 2%
Rep 35.0% 2,001 68.0% 1,361 7% 91% 2%
Ind 18.0% 1,029 63.4% 653 40% 53% 7%
Total 100% 5.717 63.4% 3626 50.3% 46.8% 2.9%

Recorded …………………………………………. 46.4% …. 50.3% …. 3.4%

Wisconsin

 WI Split Reg Turnout Votes Burke Walker Other
Dem 43.0% 1,292 77.0% 995 95% 4% 1%
Rep 41.0% 1,232 81.6% 1,006 7% 92% 1%
Ind 16.0% 481 79.3% 381 49% 49% 2%
Total 100.0% 3,005 79.3% 2382 50.5% 48.4% 1.2%

Recorded …………………………………………. 46.7% …. 52.2% …. 1.1%

Kentucky

 KY Split Voters Turnout Votes Conway Bevin Curtis
Dem 53.4% 1,227 40.0% 491 88% 9% 3%
Rep 38.8% 892 45.7% 407 4% 92% 4%
Ind 7.8% 179 42.4% 76 42% 51% 7%
 Total  100.0% 2,298 42.4% 974 49.3% 47.0% 3.7%

Recorded …………………………………………. 43.8% …. 52.5% …. 3.7%

Massachusetts

Regist. Split Regist. Voters Turnout Votes (000) Coakley Baker Other
Dem 35.3% 1,147 60.0% 688 91% 5% 4%
Rep 10.9% 354 86.0% 304 9% 87% 4%
Ind 53.8% 1,749 66.1% 1,156 47% 47% 6%
Total 100% 3,250 66.1% 2149 55.7% 39.4% 4.9%

Recorded …………………………………………. 46.6% …. 48.5% …. 4.9%

Maryland

Regist. Split Regist. Voters Turnout Votes (000) Brown Hogan Other
Dem 54.9% 1,644 54.0% 888 89% 9% 2%
Rep 25.7% 770 66.1% 509 5% 94% 1%
Other 19.4% 581 57.9% 336 47% 51% 2%
Total 100% 2.995 57.9% 1,733 56.2% 42.1% 1.7%

Recorded …………………………………………. 47.2% …. 51.0% …. 1.8%

Ohio

Regist. Split Regist. voters Turnout Votes (000) Fitz -gerald Kasich Other
Dem 41.0% 2,319 50.0% 1,160 72% 24% 4%
Rep 42.0% 2,376 56.3% 1,339 4% 95% 1%
Ind 17.0% 962 53.2% 512 36% 57% 7%
Total 100% 5,657 53.2% 3010 35.6% 61.0 3.4%

Recorded …………………………………………. 32.9% …. 63.9% …. 3.3%

Kansas

Regist.  Split Regist.  voters Turnout Votes (000) Davis Brown-back Other
Dem 24.3% 329 62.7% 206 94% 5% 1%
Rep 44.1% 597 62.7% 324 19% 79% 2%
Ind 31.6% 428 62.7% 268 56% 35% 9%
Total 100% 1,353 62.7% 849 48.9% 47.1% 4.0%

Recorded …………………………………………. 46.1% …. 49.9% …. 4.0%

Michigan

Regist. Split Regist. Voters Turnout Votes (000) Scha- uer Snyder Other
Dem 44.0% 2,270 59.0% 1,339 90% 8% 2%
Rep 37.0% 1,909 63.0% 1,203 7% 91% 2%
Ind 19.0% 980 60.8% 596 49% 48% 3%
Total 100% 5,159 60.8% 3,138 50.4 47.4% 2.2%

Recorded …………………………………………. 46.1% …. 49.9% …. 4.0%

Georgia

Reg Split Regist. Voters Turnout Votes (000) Carter Deal Other
Dem 39.0% 1,679 58.0% 974 94% 4% 2%
Rep 43.0% 1,852 59.8% 1,108 5% 93% 2%
Ind 18.0% 775 59.0% 457 47% 47% 6%
Total 100% 4,306 59.0% 2539 46.7% 51.0% 2.3%

Recorded …………………………………………. 44.8 ….52.8…. 2.4%

Colorado

Regist. Split Regist. Voters Turnout Votes  Hicken-looper Beau-prez Oth
Dem 30.9% 820 73.0% 599 92% 6% 2%
Rep 32.9% 873 77.1% 673 12% 86% 2%
Ind 36.2% 961 75.1% 721 49% 42% 9%
Total 100% 2,654 100% 1993 49.4% 46.0% 4.5%

Recorded …………………………………………. 49.1 …. 46.2…. 4.7%

Maine

Regist.  Split Regist. Voters Turnout Votes Michaud Lepage Other
Dem 31.9% 255 76.2% 194 91% 5% 4%
Rep 27.1% 217 76.2% 165 9% 87% 4%
Ind 41.0% 328 76.2% 250 45% 40% 15%
 Totl  100% 799 76.2% 609 49.9% 41.6% 8.5%

Recorded …………………………………………. 43.3 …. 48.3…. 8.4%

Vermont

Regist. Split Regist. Voters Turnout Votes Shumlin Milne Other
Dem 47.0% 152 59.9% 91 92% 4% 4%
Rep 31.0% 100 59.9% 60 10% 84% 6%
Ind 22.0% 71 59.9% 43 45% 35% 20%
 Totl  100% 324 59.9% 194 56.2% 35.6% 8.1%

Recorded …………………………………………. 46.4 …. 45.3…. 8.3%

Pennsylvania

Regist.  Split Regist. Voters Turnout Votes Wolf Corbett
Dem 49.5% 3,030 52.0% 1,576 92.0% 8.0%
Rep 36.7% 2,246 63.0% 1,416 16.0% 84.0%
Ind 13.8% 845 56.7% 479 55.0% 45.0%
Total 100% 6,121 56.7% 3470 55.9% 44.1%

Recorded …………………………………………. 54.9 …. 45.1%

California

Regist.  Split Reg Voters Turnout Votes Brown Kashkari
Dem 43.3% 6,111 45.0% 2,750 95.4% 4.6%
Rep 28.1% 3,966 47.6% 1,888 12.0% 88.0%
Ind 28.6% 4,036 46.0% 1,858 60.0% 40.0%
Total 100% 14,113 46.0% 6496 61.0% 39.0%

Recorded …………………………………………. 60.5 …. 39.5%

 

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Posted by on January 6, 2016 in 2014 Elections, Uncategorized

 

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