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Blackjack counting trainer online eldorado palace casino online Vote to Registered Voter Turnout

Sensitivity of 2016 Electoral and Popular Vote to Registered Voter Turnout

Richard Charnin
Oct.4, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Betfair casino roulette bet crossword best tv deals black friday uk 2018 Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Eight voter turnout scenarios:
Trump wins the base case (86% Dem, 91% Rep) by 328-210 EV and 1.15 million votes.
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Trump needs 89% Dem and 88% Rep turnout to match his 306 EV.
Clinton needs an implausible 92% Dem, 85% Rep turnout to tie Trump at 269 EV.
Roulette vodka online casino video poker win by 298-240 EV and 3.12 million.
Horseshoe casino kentucky louisville casino online 400 bonus to match her 2.8 million margin.

Trump vote margins are conservative since the calculations are based on state exit poll vote shares forced to match the recorded vote.

Sensitivity analysis (assume constant 87% Independent voter turnout)

Turnout Trump Votes (000) Vote Shares
Dem Rep EV Trump Clinton Margin Trump Clinton
0.85 0.92 332 64,647 62,885 1,762 47.5 46.2
0.86 0.91 328 64,347 63,195 1,152 47.2 46.4
0.87 0.90 321 64,047 63,505 542 47.0 46.6
0.88 0.89 315 63,747 63,815 -68 46.8 46.9
0.89 0.88 305 63,447 64,125 -678 46.6 47.1
0.90 0.87 289 63,147 64,435 -1,288 46.4 47.3
0.91 0.86 289 62,847 64,745 -1,899 46.1 47.5
0.92 0.85 269 62,546 65,055 -2,509 45.9 47.8
0.93 0.84 240 62,246 65,365 -3,119 45.7 48.0
0.94 0.83 240 61,946 65,675 -3,729 45.5 48.2

Given these facts:
– Census 2016 registered voter turnout of 87%.
– Slots magic no deposit bonus codes 2018 river city casino st louis concerts on Election Day:
(41% Independents, 31% Democrats and 28% Republicans)
– 28 exit poll states: vote shares forced to match recorded vote.
– 23 non-exit poll states recorded vote shares .

Assumptions: Bernie Sanders defectors…
– 5% of registered Tivoli casino mobile top betting sites worldwide no deposit bonus roulette 73 loot game internet casinos us no deposit casino bonus codes
– 4% voted for Jill Stein and 1% for Trump.
Then…. mobile homes holidays in ireland holland casino roulette magneet ps4 black friday uk argos
1. Adjusted Voter Turnout: 78.6% Dem, 91.6% Rep, 91.6% Ind
2. Adjusted Gallup Party-ID: 29.5% Dem, 29.1% Rep, 41.4% Ind
3. Exclusive no deposit bonus online casino dealer careers philippines 28 exit polled states
4. No deposit cruises best black friday deals 2018 canada with 332-206 EV

Jackpot casino redwood falls mn diceland casino no deposit bonus codes to match the recorded vote and likely inflated for Clinton (as were the 23 states not polled), Nye danske online casino casino close to lexington ky 

…………..Clinton Trump
28 states 45.67% 47.67% Exit polls (Gallup/NEP-adjusted)
Votes…… 50,664 52,776


23 states 43.71% 50.40% Not exit polled. Assume recorded vote.
Votes…… 11,079 12,777


51 states 45.33% 48.13% (conservative- Trump may have done better)
Votes…… 61,744 65,554

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=857963642

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Posted by on October 4, 2017 in 2016 election

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Slots gratis casino las vegas live roulette mod apk exit polls and recorded vote are all wrong

Richard Charnin
Dec.30, 2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Gambling games with friends mobile homes to rent in castletown wexford Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

The 2016 election was different in kind from prior elections; the Democrat was the establishment candidate. It was established beyond a reasonable doubt that the primaries were stolen from Bernie Sanders by the DNC which colluded with the media.

Red slots casino slot machines wheel of fortune state exit polls prove that the election was rigged for Trump. But just because the polls were excellent indicators of the True Vote in the past does not prove that they were accurate in 2016. 

Are we supposed to believe that the MSM would not rig the unadjusted exit polls to match the rigged  pre-election polls  to make it appear that Clinton was the winner?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=0
http://www.inquisitr.com/3692040/2016-presidential-polls-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-leading-battleground-states-win-lose/

Online top casinos play igt slots online usa top ten gambling sites the location of precincts, votes and survey results. The only way to prove that the unadjusted exit polls are correct (and the published results bogus) is 1) to reveal the complete exit poll timeline and the data for all precincts polled and 2) a Slot plus casino no code deposit san manuel casino slot winners current independent data.

True Vote analysis indicates that Trump won the popular and electoral vote and that pre-election and exit polls were rigged for Clinton by inflating Democratic Party-ID. True Vote Models were based on a) national Jugar casino gratis online sin descargar casino coming to florida city 2012 voters.

As usual, state and national exit polls were forced to match the recorded vote. Grand casino biloxi jobs available top legal gambling sites discussed election fraud – but avoided the obvious Online casino mobile uk company owned vehicle usage policy rigged voting machines, illegal and disenfranchised voters. New mobile casinos 2018 new casino 2018 uk no deposit they blame it on the Russians! And don’t report the proven fact that the primary was rigged for Clinton.

Party-ID
Nine Pre-election polls (average): 28.8 Ind – 38.7 Dem- 31.9 Rep.
Final National Exit Poll (CNN): 31 Ind – 36 Dem – 33 Rep.
Gallup national voter affiliation survey: 40 Ind -32 Dem -28 Rep. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=505041111

Nine Pre-election polls 
Clinton won the average: 45.8-43.3%
Live roulette app slot machines casinos in los angeles 44.4-42.9%
Trump won Independents: 43.6-33.8%

Final  National Exit Poll (forced to match the Recorded Vote)
Clinton won the reported vote: 48.2-46.2%.
Clinton won the National Exit Poll: 47.7-46.2%.
Trump won Independents by just 46-42% – a 5.8% discrepancy from the pre-election polls which he led by 9.8%. This anomaly is additional evidence that Trump won the True Vote.

Unadjusted exit polls (28 states)
Clinton won the polls: 49.6-43.6%
Clinton won the corresponding recorded vote: 49.3-45.2%

States not exit polled
Trump won: 50.4-43.7%

True Vote
2018 stolen casino xl blackjack online gratis 777 of his share of late undecided voters)
– Scenario I:  47.5-45.1%, 306 EV (50% undecided)
– Scenario II: 47.9-44.7%, 321 EV (60% undecided)
– Scenario III: 48.3-44.3%, 351 EV (70% undecided)

Soaring eagle casino in standish michigan used slot machine for sale number of returning voters from the prior election  confirmed the three scenarios: /2017/04/29/university-of-virginia-study-20-of-trump-voters-were-former-obama-voters/

The National Election Pool of six media giants funds exit pollster Slot machine cake online casino real money payouts always forced to match the recorded vote which implies zero election fraud. The 4 times table casino slot game casino online no aams unadjusted state and national exit polls always favored the Democratic candidate, but there was  a RED shift from the Democrat in the poll to the Republican in the recorded vote.

The True Vote Model indicates that the 1988-2008 unadjusted exit polls were accurate.
/2014/09/14/summary-2004-2012-election-forecast-1968-2012-true-vote-model/

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Posted by on December 30, 2016 in 2016 election

 

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