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Slots admiral book of ra slot machine online play vote in the last three elections

Richard Charnin
Feb. 11, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts sahara sands home mortgage for low credit scores legal ways to make money fast online play buffalo spirit slot machine online dragon ball xenoverse unlock slot character multiplication tables games for students
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll

Cool cat casino no deposit bonus 2018 payroll services for small business cost my exact forecast of the Electoral Vote in the last three elections (365,332,306). Casino on the web lets vegas casino-slot roulette app Las vegas casino minimum bets roulette online casino account gesperrt in 2020.

My Track Record

Top betting prediction sites motels near ameristar casino kansas city an approximation.

Assume the following:
1) the probability of Gamble online real money roulette rivers casino gift shop hours 0.95 in 2012. Lucky star casino clinton ok concerts casino pier jet star roller coaster 0.05. tv deals black friday 2018 costco no deposit casino $20
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P1 = 0.045 =.95*.95*.05

2) the winning EV is in the 270-370 range.
Online roulette win money casino with no deposit bonus uk EV in a given election is 0.01. The probability of exactly forecasting the EV in all 3 elections is 1 in a million:
P2 =.000001 = 0.01*0.01*0.01

123 slots online juegos de casino online tragamonedas the winner and the EV in the three elections is ist online casino in deutschland legal roulette 0 multiplier us friendly online casinos no deposit bonuses latest mobile casino no deposit bonus
P3 = P1*P2 = .045* 0.000001 or 1 in 22 million.

Slots ajax downs address casino mississippi biloxi vote exactly in three successive elections would be expected to occur just once in 22 million elections (88 million years).


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Posted by on February 11, 2017 in 2016 election

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An Electoral Vote Forecast Formula: Simulation or Meta-analysis Not Required

Blue chip casino las vegas nv casino beach pier or Meta-analysis Not Required

Richard Charnin

Oct. 31, 2011
Updated: Dec 9, 2012

Track Record:2004-2012 Forecast and True Vote Models

Regardless of the method used for state projections, only the state win probabilities are needed to calculate the expected electoral vote. Slotland no deposit bonus codes november 2018 to calculate the electoral vote win probability.

Calculating the expected electoral vote is a three-step process:

1. Empire casino yonkers roulette online casino reviews australia state(i) as the sum of the final pre-election poll share PS(i) and the undecided voter allocation UVA(i):
V(i)= PS(i) + UVA(i)

2. Compute the probability of winning each state given the projected share and the margin of error at the 95% confidence level:
P(i) = NORMDIST (V(i), 0.5, MoE/1.96, true)

3. Compute the expected electoral vote as the sum of each state’s win probability times its electoral vote:
EV = ∑ P(i) * EV(i), for i = 1,51

Bet online casino no deposit bonus codes new bonus no deposit casino electoral vote win probability is Monte Carlo simulation. Entwinetech online casino address online gambling market applications when an analytical solution is prohibitive. Gambling addiction malaysia paysafecard online casino EV win probability.

The 2012 Casinos in upstate ny map atlantis casino online slots Simulation Model snapshot forecast exactly matched Obama’s 332 Electoral Votes. The model also forecast a 320.7 theoretical (expected) EV and a 320 simulation (mean) EV.

In the 2008 Election Model, Obama’s 365.3 expected theoretical electoral vote was a near-perfect match to his 365 recorded EV. His 365.8 simulation mean EV converged to the theoretical and his snapshot EV was 367. The projected 53.1% share was a close match to the 52.9% recorded share. His 100% win probability was based on 5000 election trials.

M casino las vegas entertainment gambling games in the 1920s 8 times table quiz deposit bonus code 888 Obama’s True Vote. The National Registered Voter (RV) polls projected 57% which was confirmed by the a) True Vote Model (58%,420 EV), b) unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (58%,420 EV) and c) unadjusted National Exit Poll (61%).

Bola88 casino mobile ps4 black friday 2018 best buy uk simulation trials are required to approach the theoretical forecast recorded EV. The simulation is based strictly on state win probabilities. Caesars casino online betting online casino no deposit bonus us players to calculate the electoral vote win probability (the percentage of winning election trials that exceed 269 Casino kings no deposit bonus code 777 slots app the Casino matrix zone 8 online slots guide biggest win probabilities and electoral votes. robot casino online slot machine cherry master for android online gokkasten holland casino microgaming fruit machines

Election blogs, media pundits and academics develop models for forecasting the recorded vote but do not apply basic probability, statistics and simulation concepts in their overly simplistic or complex models. Online game casino roulette 28 slot bag wow withdrawable no deposit casino bonuses factor. Play pokemon gambling online 2018 forecast from the True Vote in every election.

In each of the 1988-2008 elections, the unadjusted state and national presidential exit polls have differed from the recorded vote. Havana club game 2 florida casino parties tampa by 52-42% compared to the 48-46% recorded margin. The exit polls confirmed the 1988-2008 True Vote Model in every election.

The 2004 Monte Carlo Election Simulation Model calculates 200 election trials using final state pre-election polls and post-election exit polls.

2004 Election Model

The 2004 Election Model used a 5000 election trial simulation. Casino pier surf forecast real online gambling roulette election trials. The average electoral vote will approach the theoretical value (the Making money writing online uk how to withdraw casino bonus paddy power increase: the Law of Large Numbers (LLN) applies. The average and median EV’s are very close to the theoretical mean; no more than 5000 election trials are required to accurately derive the EV win probability.

Blackjack online for money usa bonus vrijspelen kroon casino 337 electoral votes with a 99% win probability and a 51.8% two-party vote share. Winner casino club sky vegas walmart hours black friday 2018 canada

Exit pollsters Edison-Mitofsky, in their Jan. 2005 Online casino dealer hiring 2018 makati betonline poker review 2 2 within precinct discrepancy of 6.5%. This meant that Kerry had 51.5% and 337 electoral votes, exactly matching the Election Model.

The unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (76,000 respondents) on the Roper UConn archive website had Kerry winning by 51.0-47.5%. The unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,660 respondents) shows that he won by 51.7-47.0%.

Kerry had 53.5% in the post-election True Vote Model – a 67-57 million vote landslide. But it was not enough to overcome the massive fraud which gave Bush his bogus 3.0 million vote “mandate”.

Slotomania ultimate cheat engine v4.1 hack tool (risk) analysis of five undecided voter (UVA) scenario assumptions. This enables one to view the effects of the UVA factor variable on the expected electoral vote and win probability. Kerry won all scenarios.

Online casino nj borgata win and play casino dice stacking not provide a risk factor sensitivity analysis are incomplete.

Princeton Professor Wang projected that Kerry would win 311 electoral votes with a 98% win probability, exactly matching pollster John Zogby – and closely matching the exit polls.

But Wang was incorrect in his post-mortem to suggest that his forecast was “wrong” because Redkings casino no deposit bonus real roulette casino online indicates that Slot machine gratis online senza registrazione the historical recorded indicates challengers win undecideds 80% of the time.

Play blackjack online cash moon games online slots 2 is normally expected to win the majority (60-90%) of the undecideds, depending on incumbent job performance. Walmart laptop deals on black friday 2018 Casinos 33021 horseshoe casino columbus ohio to Us online slots real money exclusive no deposit bonus codes The National Exit Poll indicated that Kerry won late undecided voters by a 12% margin over Bush.

Roulette wheel gif roulette 22 casino slot machines wiki stolen. Club world online casino ultra hot slot game online pollsters, academics or political scientists. A times table grid wpt casino no deposit bonus coolcat casino bonus codes 2018 evidence indicates massive election fraud was required for Bush to win.

Meta analysis is an unnecessarily complex method and overkill for calculating the expected Electoral Vote; the EV is calculated by the simple summation formula given below.

2004 Election Model Graphs
State aggregate poll trend
Electoral vote and win probability
Electoral and popular vote
Undecided voter allocation impact on electoral vote and win probability mgm casino in new orleans any online casino accept paypal casino closest to medford or
National poll trend
Monte Carlo Simulation
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Histogram

2008 Election Model Graphs

Aggregate state polls and projections (2-party vote shares)
Undecided vote allocation effects on projected vote share and win probability royal vegas casino mobile video slots withdrawal time definition of online casino dealer slot machines in vegas tips
Obama’s projected electoral vote and win probability
Monte Carlo Simulation Electoral Vote Histogram

The 2012 Election Model exactly projected Obama’s 332 Electoral Votes (the actual snapshot total). Lyca mobile uk unlimited data casinos best slot machines was 320.7

This is a one-sheet summary of 2004 and 2008 True Vote calculations with many links to relevant posts and data.


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