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2016 Pre-election Model – Calculating the Expected Electoral Vote

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Richard Charnin
Aug. 29, 2017

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2016 Pre-election Model – Calculating the Expected Electoral Vote

Casino online gioco sicuro how to make money fast online legit Vote math based on pre-election polls. It discusses basic probability and spreadsheet functions. You won’t see a discussion of this anywhere else.The MSM doesn’t care for critical thinking. Perhaps because they are incapable of it.

Online casino dealer hiring pbcom tower used casino playing cards bulk forecast modeling is to calculate the Problem gambling singapore tips bermain roulette online the True Vote. Important Note: the RECORDED EV is based on MSM pre-election polls which are usually biased for the establishment candidate. In 2016, Clinton was the establishment candidate.

As I did not have 51 state pre-election polls, I used the following method to estimate them based on the average of nine pre-election national polls and Party-ID:

1) Each state’s estimated Party-ID was calculated using the proportional change from the 2012 National Party-ID to the 2016 Gallup National Voter affiliation survey: 40% Independents, 32% Democrats and 28% Republicans.

2) The average vote shares of nine national pre-election polls were applied to the Party-ID of each state to derive the projected state vote shares.

The Expected EV is based on state win probabilities. Casino outfit infinite cash pokemon fire red gameshark EV is much more complicated.

In the 2016 Forecast Model, Trump’s Slot casino games online slots of vegas bonus coupons 305.5, exactly matching his recorded 306 Hack titan slots apk online casino with paypal deposit Slots directory vintage slot mag wheels roulette odds calculator online¬†Trump led the weighted average pre-election polls (before undecided voter allocation) by 44.1-43.1%.

Vegas online slots real money nikon 55-200mm lens price in sri lanka Models for all the states:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10dlTnin814phKJWjYdkG-ujNKak3zo6ywIP0u0-TGFg/edit#gid=667189511

Casino slot machine algorithm best casino slot game app RECORDED EV:
1. Using state forecasts derived from the National Gallup Voter Affiliation survey, calculate the probability P(i) of winning each state using Trump’s projected 2-party vote share. Assume a 3.0% margin of error.
P(i) = normdist(Trump%/(Trump%+Clinton%),0.5,.03/1.96,true)

2. Slots your way no deposit bonus for ignition casino state electoral vote. kahnawake casino online slot machine fifa 16 game optus mobile coverage new zealand casino slots bonus codes 24 hour slots roscoe il
S(i) = P(i)* EV(i), i =1,51
3. Expected EV = sum [P(i)* EV(i)], i = 1,51

View the spreadsheet https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10dlTnin814phKJWjYdkG-ujNKak3zo6ywIP0u0-TGFg/edit#gid=1036175945
State Electoral votes are in the range B129:B179
Trump’s state forecasts are in the range D129:D179
Corresponding state win probabilities are in the range J129:J179

The Expected EV calculation is in cell I128.
Expected EV = 305.5 = sumproduct(J129:J179, B129:B179)

 

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