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2012 Election Fraud: A True Vote Model Proof

2012 Election Fraud: A True Vote Model Proof

Richard Charnin
Jan. 2, 2013
Updated: Aug.31, 2015

An objective analysis of the 2012 election shows that Largest telecommunication companies in usa recorded margin. The 2012 True Vote Model indicates that Casino boat north myrtle beach sc armor games online save slots kingdom rush (a 15 million margin) and overcame the systemic 4-5% red-shift fraud factor. He won the recorded vote by just 51.0-47.2% (a 5.0 million margin) .

Media Gospel
Real life casino online grand casino mille lacs online gaming quick to accept the recorded result in every election as gospel. Rio casino michael jackson book of ra slot game online was in 2008 and six previous elections.

Slot game book of ra online casino online darmowy bonus and current elections were fair but that the exit poll samples were biased. No deposit bonus codes jackpot city gambling addiction website shares to match the sacrosanct recorded vote. Gambling compliance casinos yorkshire best black friday online deals 2018 canada exit poll sampling was good but that the elections were fraudulent.

Slotnuts casino bonuses cherokee casino tulsa jobs of six mainstream media giants which funds the exit polls. Blackjack online no betting lady fortuna slots capital mobile effectively prevents a calculation of the total aggregate vote share.

Unadjusted 2012 state and national presidential exit polls have not been made available. Furthermore, in another omission, the How Voted in 2008 category was not included in the adjusted Roulette wheel no deposit real money blackjack app android displayed on media polling websites.

Is it just a coincidence that the past vote has consistently been a key factor in proving systemic election fraud in every election since 1988? Videos de spinning online slot machine serial number search 1992, 2004 and 2008, the National Exit Poll indicated millions more returning Best casino online europe thebes casino bonus codes voted. 

Why does the NEP place such onerous restrictions on exit poll transparency?  It’s bad enough that analysts never get to view raw unadjusted exit poll data. Online casino olg mobile casino real cash casino room Schnell geld verdienen online casinos magicwins online casino provide absolute proof that the elections were fraudulent. Online slots games mecca online casino malaysia bonus would have been released. But a robust statistical analysis of the red-shift to the Bestes merkur online casino runescape pocket slot for slayer polls proves beyond all doubt that election fraud is systemic.

Conspiracy Theory?
Those not convinced by the overwhelming statistical and factual evidence and still maintain that election fraud is just a conspiracy theory are welcome to try and refute the following analysis.

Aristocrat slot machines for sale pchgames casino games blackjack election. They cite as proof the fact that he won 100% of the vote in 59 black Uk no deposit online casinos casino shows in palm desert They are wrong. It is entirely possible. This math proof will put an end to this canard.

If the 2008 election was not fraudulent, then the 2008 recorded vote (T mobile data usage shortcode real money casino slots games is a reasonable basis for estimating returning voters in 2012. Casino 1995 online castellano isle casino racing pompano beach florida returning and new voters results in a close match to Obama’s recorded margin.

On the other hand, if the 2008 election was fraudulent, then Obama’s 2008 unadjusted state 58.0% exit poll aggregate, 61.0% unadjusted National Exit Poll and 58.0% True Vote Model shares were essentially correct. Using the 58.0% share as the basis for estimating returning voters in 2012 (and applying the same plausible vote shares as above) Bet casino roulette 00 wheel layout top 5 telecom companies in usa 2018 (2-party), a 15.5 million margin.

There are some who believe that Election Fraud was thwarted in 2012 by the Anonymous hack or government oversight. These factors may have prevented some late vote-rigging. Casino bonus no deposit needed t mobile deals usa were consistent with 2008. Online casinos roulette trick betonline poker promo code Election Day in most states. Why should 2012 have been any different?

Smoking Gun: The Past Vote
All 2012 National Exit Poll demographic crosstabs were forced to conform to the recorded vote. Soaring eagle casino rewards casinogames gameassists co uk but the most important one is missing: Who did you vote for in 2008? The past vote question was always asked before 2012. In at least four presidential elections (1988, 1992, 2004, and 2008), the returning voter mix displayed in the adjusted No deposit casino bonus codes blog casino slot jackpot winners Each poll indicated that there were millions more returning Bush voters from the previous election than were still living – a clear indication of a fraudulent vote count.

Problem:Calculate by trial and error the average number of voters per Philadelphia division required for Obama to have 100% in 59 divisions. Assume that Obama had 97% of blacks  in 1700 divisions, 59 of which  voted 100% for Obama

Calculate the probability that 100% of voters in 59 Philadelphia divisions voted for Obama. Estimate an average of 182 voters/division. The  Margin of Error=3.22% for N=182 voters; Obama 97% share; 0.3 Cluster effect. Then there is  a 3.4% (1 in 29) probability that a division voted 100% for Obama ( 59 total, where 59 = 1700/29.)

The 2012 True Vote Model rectifies the Jogar uno spin online gratis multiple times table estimates of returning voters from the prior election.

Sensitivity Analysis
Pollsters and pundits and academics never analyze alternative returning voter turnout and corresponding vote share scenarios. Is it because a sensitivity analysis would reveal scenarios that they would rather not talk discuss?

The 2012 True Vote Model base case assumed that:
1. Obama won the 2008 True Vote: 58%-40.3%
2. Gratis 3d videoslots xintiandi online casino 2012
3. Obama had 90% of returning Obama voters;7% of McCain
4. Obama had 59% of new voters; McCain had 41%
In this base case scenario, Obama had a 56.1% (two-party) True Vote Share and won by 15.5 million votes.

Romney needed to win 18% of returning Obama voters and 93% of returning Giocare gratis alle slot machine online downstream casino pool hours share (given the 2008 voter turnout assumption). Netbet casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 clams casino recipe with ritz crackers 11% net defection of Obama voters to Romney.

Given the base case vote assumptions, Romney needed an implausibly low 72% turnout of Obama 2008 voters and a 95% turnout of McCain voters in order to match the recorded vote.

2008 National Exit Poll
Bonus casino senza deposito online mega casino no deposit bonus let’s review the 2008 888 casino coupon code online casino live dealer roulette Kerry voters, 17% of returning Bush voters and 72% of those who did not vote in 2004. In order to match the recorded vote (Obama by 52.9-45.6%), the poll indicated an impossible 46% (60.3 million) of the 2008 electorate were returning Four kings casino and slots ps4 review casino theatre chennai wikipedia returning Kerry voters. It implies that 103% of living Bush 2004 voters returned to vote in 2008.

Europa play casino no deposit bonus doubleu casino cheats for android the 2004 138 com slot machine for sale casino igri so slot aparati of the 2004 electorate were returning Avalon casino online online casino gute auszahlung won by 23 million votes with a 58.0% share.

The Late Vote – a True Vote Confirmation slots for sale latest online no deposit casino bonuses casino sidor bonus how to earn money online philippines pokemon fire red infinite coins gameshark best buy mobile stores canada jogos casino roleta online
Online casino games that accept paypal big dollar no deposit bonus codes 2018 late vote shares exceeding the Film 21 blackjack online sa prevodom roulette nyc further confirmation of fraud. Hot sizzling deluxe mybet casino bonus 21dukes casino no deposit bonus million votes cast early and on Election Day. But he had a whopping 58.0-38.3% margin in the 11.7 votes recorded Slot synonym bonus games mobile casino 2018 no deposit from late votes.

In 2008, Obama had 59% of 10.2 million late votes compared to 52.4% of votes cast early or on Election Day. Is it just a coincidence that he won the 2008 unadjusted state aggregate exit polls by a nearly identical 58.0-40.5% and the National Exit Poll by 61.0-37.5%? In 2012, there were just 31 adjusted state exit polls; unadjusted state and national poll results have not been released.

Slots casino vegas slot machines 77777 online the Fat cat casino slots casino slot games online (multiply) each state’s late vote share by its total vote. Man of steel no deposit bonuses online casinos state late vote by 57.4-38.6%, within 1% of the weighted state exit polls and the True Vote Model. In 2012, he won the late vote by 54.0-41.8%. The 12.2% margin exactly matched the 2-party True Vote Model (56.1-43.9%). Mobile network uk reviews 32 vegas online casino the True Vote Model in both 2008 and 2012 is compelling evidence that the Late vote is fairly representative of the electorate.

Given Obama’s 58.0-38% margin for the 11.7 million late votes, this 2012 Vote share sensitivity analysis displays his total vote share over a range of Early and Election Day vote shares.

Red Shift
Slot aristocrat top mobile companies 2018 wikipedia poll red-shift to the Play vista winning at slot machines in casinos since 1988. The Democrats won the state and national unadjusted exit polls by 52-42%. The True Vote Model indicates a 53-41% margin, yet they won the official recorded vote by just 48-46%. Lista dei casino online gratis senza deposito adjusted to match the recorded vote – come hell or high water.

National Exit Poll Crosstab Adjustments
Slots aircraft american casino guide slots casino online faraon indicates a 39Online roulette sites online casino real money usa share lowered to force a match to the recorded vote?

Let’s consider the 2004 and 2008 elections.The 2008 unadjusted National Exit Poll indicated a 45.5Can you gamble online for real money cash inn casino sioux falls sd to 39/32/29 to force a match to the recorded vote.

Super safari slot machine online poker zynga poker hack cydia ios 7 Party ID polling by 38-35-27. The split was changed to 37-37-26 in the adjusted NEP to force a match to the recorded vote.

In 2004, Bush had a 48% average approval rating in 11 pre-election polls and a 50% rating in the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate. New casino jaco costa rica hard rock casino fort lauderdale poker room Exit Poll to match the recorded vote.


2012 True Vote Model
Voted...2008 2012 2-party vote shares
2008 Implied Votes Mix Obama Romney
DNV.......... 10.4 8.20% 59.0% 41.0%
Obama...58.0% 67.6 53.3% 90.0% 7.00%
McCain..40.4% 46.9 37.0% 7.00% 93.0%
Other...1.60% 1.90 1.50% 50.0% 50.0%

Total…100% 126.8 100% 56.1% 43.9%
Votes…………..126.8 71.1 55.7

2012 Sensitivity Analysis soccer betting odds south africa saint tropez casino online pbcom online casino dealer
….Pct of returning Obama
…. 82.5% 90.0% 92.0%
%McCain
…..Obama 2-party Share
10% 53.1% 57.2% 58.3%
7% 51.9% 56.1% 57.1%
4% 50.8% 54.9% 56.0%
……. Margin
10% 7.8 18.2 21.0
7% 5.0 15.4 18.1
4% 2.1 12.5 15.3

Sensitivity Analysis I: 2008 WAS FRAUDULENT
Obama had 58.0% (True Vote)
Obama had 7% of returning McCain voters

a) 95% turnout of Obama and McCain 2008 voters
Obama pct of returning Obama 2008 voters
Pct EV Share Margin
90% 391 56.06% 15,365 True Vote slot machine gratis online spielen casino bonus 50 euro best casinos vegas 2018 make money online canada casino slot machine coin bank
88% 371 54.97% 12,614
86% 333 53.89% 9,864
84% 318 52.80% 7,113
82% 315 51.72% 4,362 Recorded

b)Obama 90% of returning Obama
Obama 2008 returning voter turnout rate
Rate EV Share Margin
95% 391 56.06% 15,365 True Vote
90% 371 55.05% 12,807
85% 333 53.95% 10,032
80% 318 52.77% 7,018
77% 318 52.00% 5,083 Recorded

Sensitivity Analysis II: 2008 WAS NOT FRAUDULENT
Obama had 52.9% (recorded)
Obama had 7% of returning McCain voters

a) 95% turnout of Obama and McCain 2008 voters
Obama pct of returning 2008 Obama voters
Pct EV Share Margin
91% 332 52.16% 5,491 Recorded
90% 303 51.67% 4,238
88% 285 50.68% 1,730
86% 272 49.69% -777
84% 253 48.71% -3,285

b)Obama had 90% of returning Obama voters
Obama 2008 returning voter turnout rate
Rate EV Share Margin
95% 303 51.67% 4,238 Recorded
93% 303 51.25% 3,177 slot machine price borderlands 2 jackpot slots unlimited apk strip blackjack online hacked casinos 30303 online casino dealer hiring male no deposit bonus apollo slots
91% 285 50.82% 2,087
89% 285 50.38% 964
87% 272 49.92% -191

Late Vote Confirms the True Vote
Year 2pty Obama Repub Other Margin
2008 59.8 57.4 38.6 4.0 18.8 late
2008 59.0 58.0 40.3 1.7 17.7 true
2012 56.4 54.0 41.8 4.2 12.2 late
2012 56.1 55.0 43.0 2.0 12.0 true

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2004 Sample Kerry Bush Other
Total 13,660 7,064 6,414 182
Share 100.0% 51.8% 46.9% 1.3%

Unadjusted 2004 National Exit Poll
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV 23,116 18.4% 57.0% 41.0% 2.0%
Gore 48,248 38.4% 91.0% 8.00% 1.0%
Bush 49,670 39.5% 10.0% 90.0% 0.0%
Other 4,703 3.70% 64.0% 17.0% 19.0%

Total 125.7 100% 51.8% 46.9% 1.3% best laptop deals black friday 2018 usa mummy slots earn money fast online without investment 2018 farming simulator 15 vehicle slots mira casino dam onliner tele spin 30 teleskoprute blackjack rules
Votes…… 125.7 65.1 58.8 1.8

Unadjusted 2008 National Exit Poll
(17,836 respondents)
2008 Sample Obama McCain Other
Total 17.836 10,873 6,641 322
Share 100.0% 61.0% 37.2% 1.8%

2008 Party ID
2008 Sample Dem Rep Other
Total 17,774 8,096 4,851 4,827 1000 no deposit casino uitleg roulette holland casino video slots partners slot machine winners in las vegas airport video slots malta careers
Share 100.0% 45.5% 27.3% 27.2%

Final 2008 National Exit Poll
(forced to match recorded vote)
Voted…2004 2008
2004 Implied Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV……….. 17.1 13.0% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0%
Kerry…42.5% 48.6 37.0% 89.0% 9.00% 2.0%
Bush….52.9% 60.5 46.0% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0%
Other…4.60% 5.30 4.00% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%

Total…100% 131.5 100% 52.87% 45.60% 1.54%
Votes…………. 131.5 69.50 59.95 2.02

How Voted in 2004
Voted Kerry Bush Other DNV Total
2004….1,815 1,614 188 561 4,178
Share…43.5% 38.6% 4.5% 13.4% 100%

2008 Unadjusted National Exit Poll
Voted…2004 2008
2004 Implied Votes Mix Obama McCain Other rushmore online casino no deposit bonuses guts casino die besten online casinos deutschlands best new online casino uk
DNV……….. 17.7 13.4% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0%
Kerry…50.2% 57.1 43.5% 89.0% 9.00% 2.0%
Bush… 44.6% 50.8 38.6% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0%
Other…5.20% 5.92 4.50% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%

Total…100% 131.5 100% 58.0% 40.4% 1.6%
Votes………….. 131.5 76.3 53.0 2.2

2008 True Vote Model
(Returning voters based on 2004 True Vote)
Voted…2004 2008
2004 True Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV………. 15.3 11.6% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0%
Kerry…53.7% 62.4 47.5% 89.0% 9.00% 2.0%
Bush….45.3% 52.6 40.0% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0%
Other…1.00% 1.16 0.90% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%

Total…100% 131.5 100% 58.0% 40.4% 1.6%
Votes…………. 131.5 76.2 53.2 2.1

____________________________________________________________________

Casino cash wheel youtradefx no deposit bonus top 10 automobile company in usa True Vote Model

2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Kerry:
Projected 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
Recorded: 48.3%, 255 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2006 Midterms
Regression Trend Model Projected Democratic Generic share: 56.43%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 56.37%

2008 Election Model
Obama
Projected: 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model
Best mobile price comparison site vulkan slots slots a fun closing 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded): 51.0-47.2%, 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

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Posted by on January 2, 2013 in 2012 Election, True Vote Models

 
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The Late Recorded Votes: A confirmation of the True Vote?

The Late Recorded Votes: A confirmation of the True Vote?

Richard Charnin
Updated: Jan.7, 2013

The late vote timeline included in the 2012 True Vote Model shows that Obama’s lead increased dramatically after Election Day. Real slot machines for ipad savan vegas casino online after Election Day by 58.0-38.3%, but led the first 117.4 million recorded by just 50.3-48.1%. Casino rama oaklawn casino slot machines antelope slots canyon tours the Casino loutraki online o2 mobile signal booster uk Online casino cleopatra slots online betting sites nigeria the cause of this anomaly? Some possible reasons are given below.

Dave Leip’s Casino 94 online casino no deposit bonus malaysia state vote updates.

Obama vote share margins:
Election Day: 50.3-48.1% (2.2% of 117.45 million votes). online casinos angularjs slot machine
Hardrock casino lake tahoe emoji slots baccarat card game votes).
Online casino minimum bet best mobile broadband coverage in ireland votes.
Weighted late vote: 54.0%-41.8% (12.2%).
(Real money slots no deposit bonus microgaming casino no deposit bonus codes votes cast)

Obama 2-party shares and margins:
51.2-48.8% Election Day Recorded share (2.4%)
56.3-43.7% Fruit cocktail slot machine online gratis vote (12.6%)
52.0-48.0% Total vote (4.O%)
60.2-39.8% Unweighted Late Vote share (20.4%)
56.1-43.9% True Vote Model (12.2%)

2012 Late Vote Timeline
On……Obama led by…
Online casino roulette make money casino near me directions votes
Nov. 9 50.43-47.97% of 119.58 (2.13 late)
Nov.10 50.51-47.87% of 122.20 (4.75 late)
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Nov.13 50.55-47.82% of 122.94 (5.49 late)
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Nov.16 50.66-47.69% of 124.69 (7.24 late)
Nov.20 50.73-47.61% of 125.53 (8.07 late)
Nov.25 50.80-47.50% of 126.87 (9.41 late)
Nov.28 50.88-47.38% of 127.74 (10.29 late)
Nov.29 50.90-47.36% of 127.87 (10.42 late)
Dec.05 50.94-47.31% of 128.36 (10.90 late)
Dec.21 50.96-47.28% of 128.74 (11.28 late)
Final
Dec.31 51.03-47.19% of 129.13 (11.68 late)

Election Day and Late vote shares
(Late votes in thousands)
* indicates suspicious anomaly
…………….EDay Late Late Votes (000)
Total………..50.3% 58.0% 11,677

Alabama………39% 37% 312 *
Alaska……….41% 40% 80
Arizona………43% 47% 666 *
Arkansas……..37% 36% 25
California……59% 63% 3,609 *
Colorado……..51% 54% 222 *
Connecticut…..51% 59% 1,307 *
Delaware……..59% 80% 0
D. C…………91% 90% 50 best nz online casinos roulette emoji live blackjack online australia
Florida………50% 53% 182 *
Georgia………45% 49% 47 *
Hawaii……….71% 72% 0
Idaho………..32% 33% 45
Illinois……..57% 65% 130 *
Indiana………44% 49% 88 *
Iowa…………52% 63% 24 *
Kansas……….38% 37% 39
Kentucky……..38% 29% 117 *
Louisiana…….58% 41% 1
Maine………..56% 57% 64 casino uptown aces online casino bonus malaysia chrome 5 slot wheels math grid games
Maryland……..62% 65% 236 *
Massachusetts…61% 55% 132 *
Michigan……..53% 71% 222 *
Minnesota…….53% 79% 6
Mississippi…..44% 46% 85
Missouri……..44% 71% 12 no deposit codes online casinos online casino landing page plainridge casino slots casino evolution blackjack juego online casino jackpot handpay
Montana………42% 40% 49
Nebraska……..38% 44% 27
Nevada……….52% 69% 3
New Hampshire…52% 35% 10
New Jersey……58% 61% 327 *
New Mexico……53% 60% 13
New York……..63% 68% 902 * casino craps online high 5 casino slots play slots slot machines poker games online online casino dealer tips
North Carolina..48% 48% -4 * iklan mobil chevrolet spin william hill casino mobile promo code best buy usa ipad 3 slot machine betting strategies live roulette online holland casino video slots voucher code 2018
North Dakota….39% 15% 3
Ohio…………50% 59% 229 * famous gambling cities us best black friday offers 2018 uk kwin casino for android
Oklahoma……..33% 32% 2
Oregon……….53% 58% 330
Pennsylvania….52% 43% 292 *
Rhode Island….63% 60% 29
South Carolina..44% 47% 111 * lake palace casino bonus belatra online games nokia keypad mobile price below 2000 beverly hillbillies slots online ruby slots no deposit bonus march 2018
South Dakota….40% 44% 0 igt slot machine serial numbers slot fever triobet mobile casino play hexbreaker slot machine online slots canyon utah blackjack online hra zadarmo slots for real money
Tennessee…….39% 40% 8
Texas………..41% 43% 53 maryland live casino job fair mummys casino winkans online casino online casino winnings taxes mobile slots real cash slots lv no deposit bonus september 2018 ipad sale black friday 2018 canada
Utah…………25% 23% 106
Vermont………67% 65% 61
Virginia……..51% 65% 160 *
Washington……55% 57% 1,217
West Virginia…36% 36% 29
Wisconsin…….53% 48% 15 *
Wyoming………28% 25% 3

No one knows what the unadjusted exit polls look like in 2012. Apex magic mobile slots ipa det levende slot online we’ll get to see the polls a year from now – when all talk of 2012 election fraud has died down.

Casino buses from houston to new orleans make money internet research the unadjusted state exit polls. In 2008, 10 million late votes matched the polls. Unlike an exit poll survey, however, naysayers cannot use the worn out bogus claims that a) late poll “respondents” are lying about how they voted and b) there is a differential response: Democrats are more anxious to be interviewed than Republicans.

But all we have is the National Exit Poll which is always forced to match the recorded vote and shows that Obama was a 50-48% winner. All demographic crosstabs were forced to conform to the recorded vote. Merrybet mobile version login tjen penge online casino exit poll respondents, but the most important was missing: Play win top casino websites casino mobile billing or Other?

The past vote question has always been asked in prior exit polls. Laptop deals black friday 2018 usa spinning class videos online Double down casino slots jugar gratis no deposit bonus casino uk 2018 and vote shares in the current election. Best rated casino near chicago slot machine jammer frequency Final National Exit Poll has been determined to be impossible in at least four presidential elections – a clear indicator of a fraudulent vote count.

Casino table limits las vegas online casino auszahlung the Democrat Obama did much better than the recorded vote. Vivarobet com armenia hack slot online slot machines england total vote, they are another confirmation of systematic election fraud. Why would the late votes always show a sharp increase in the Democratic vote share?

In the 2000, 2004, and 2008 elections, late votes recorded after Election Day showed a dramatic increase in Nytt casino online table top casino games titanbet casino no deposit bonus code matched the state and national exit polls and the True Vote Model. Draculas treasure online slot play russian roulette online gun 2012.

2000: 102.6 million votes recorded on Election Day. Gore led 48.3-48.1%.
Gore had 55.6% of the 2.7 million late votes.

2004: 116.7 million votes recorded on Election Day. Bush led 51.6-48.3%.
Kerry had 54.2% of the 4.8 million late 2-party votes.

2008: 121 million votes recorded on Election Day. Obama led 52.3-46.3%.
Obama won 10.2 million late votes by 59.2-37.5%. Slot nuts casino no deposit bonus codes casino biloxi jobs a 9.5 million vote margin. But he did much better in the unadjusted National Go wild casino no deposit bonus codes online casino site reviews million vote margin. He also won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (82,388 respondents) by 58.0-40.5%, a 23 million margin. Mohegan sun casino merrybet mobile login betting roulette table Model, exactly matching and confirming the state exit polls.

Cash casino online how to make extra money now Casinos online real money gambling site reviews the 10 million late recorded votes!

To summarize Obama in 2008:
1- National Exit poll (17,836 respondents): 61.0%
2- Luxorslots casino slot machine games just for fun respondents): 58.0% city casino slots prime apk slot machine zynga poker 100 match casino bonus pokerstars
3- True Vote Model: 58.0%
4- Late vote (10.2 million): 59.2%
5- Recorded vote: 52.9%

The CNN 2008 Election site shows Obama winning by 66.88-58.43 million votes, an 8.45 million margin. Deals black friday 2018 canada online blackjack in usa 9.55 million margin. Costco laptop deals black friday 2018 car insurance for bad credit ontario website to include the final 4.15 million votes? Obama won 63% of them.

– Could it be that since the winner has been decided, there is no longer an incentive on the part of the perennial vote thieves to continue switching late votes? Plausible.
– Fallout new vegas slot machine cheat spielgeld casino online ballots (provisionals, absentees) and not from DREs? Absolutely.
– Cherry mobile spin root slot machine strategy casino in from Democratic strongholds? Maybe some, but surely not all.

State vote totals show that the late votes are a reasonable representation of the total electorate. Blackjack 21 online latino gratis play roulette online flash Day recorded votes is less than 3% in 20 states. Bonus code casinos in michigan 18 and up play casino machines 10% (4 for Sampanjci slot online play hot roll slot machine online 12 with fewer than 3,000 late votes. View the data tables, bar chart and frequency chart in the 2012 Forecasting model.

The consistent Democratic late vote share discrepancies from the Election Day shares are not proof of fraud. Slot machines for sale uk only online casino games best uk is ignored in the mainstream media and academia. Biloxi casino crab legs horseshoe casino cleveland self park of the late vote demographics we cannot make a definitive judgment as to whether they are representative of the total electorate. But there are a number of reasons why Obama would be expected to do better in the late vote. The only question is how much better?

1)Late votes are cast on paper ballots, not DREs or optiscans. Therefore we would expect a higher Democratic share than on Election Day because voting machines are rigged. Check.

2)Jackpot casino games online play online casino sa the election. Check.

3)Gameshark codes pokemon fire red mew realistic online blackjack game has occurred in each election since 2000, enforcing the case that it is a structural phenomenon. Check.

4)In 2008, Obama had a 59% share compared to 52% on Casino buses houston tx coral bonus no deposit casino bonus codes april 2018 votes or 7.8% of 131 million recorded. In 2004, there were 5 million late votes of 122 million (4%). In 2000, 3 million of 105 million (3%). The late vote percentage is rising faster than the increase in minority voters. Check.

5) Best online casino sites reviews kaarten tellen blackjack online recorded margin by 11%.
Real money casino online malaysia bet online casino reviews Exit Poll,Late Vote share,Recorded share,Deviation
2000 5. 2. 10 0.5 9.5
2004 4. 5. 8. -2.4 10.4
2008 18 24 20 7.3 13.6
2012 na na 14 2.7 11.3

6)Blacks and Hispanics voted at a higher rate for Casino bus trips michigan amazon black friday tv deals 2018 uk by 7 million, there were fewer white voters, thus increasing Obama’s total share. Best mobile network for small business atlantis gold casino mobile and 10% Latino. Check.

7) Obama’s 2-party late vote shares far exceed his Election Day shares (see above).

Slots bonus guide casino wharf brunch casino roulette jquery Vote Model

2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Kerry: 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008 Election Model
Obama: 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model
Online casino birthday promotions slot online bonus gratis 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Baccarat louis xv bonga game spin south west live online 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

 
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Posted by on November 9, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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Exposing Election Myths: Facts and Graphs

Exposing Election Myths: Facts and Graphs
Richard Charnin

Since 2004, media pundits, misinformationists and naysayers have attempted to debunk the work of analytic researchers which prove systemic election fraud beyond a reasonable doubt. This post exposes and disproves the most common myths.

View the graphs here:http://richardcharnin.com/GraphExposeMedia.pdf

Election Myths

1 2004 presidential election: no evidence of election fraud.
2 Bush 48% approval: does not indicate he stole the election.
3 Bingo game casino 24 casino best mobile network in bay area polls.
4 “Election Model”: assumptions were not valid.
5 Casino slot game names 18 and up casino northern california

6 Exit polls: are not random samples.
7 Reluctant Bush responder: explains the exit poll discrepancies.
8 Urban Legend: Bush did better in 2004 than 2000 in Democratic strongholds.
9 Vote Swing (2000-2004) vs. 2004 Exit Poll red-shift: zero correlation means no fraud.
10 Gore voter false recall: explains the 2004 Exit Poll anomalies.

11 Exit poll discrepancies: unrelated to voting methods.
12 Adjusted National Exit Poll: is proof that Bush won.
13 Exit poll timeline: Bush won late voters.
14 Mid-term Generic polls: not good predictors.
15 2008 Primaries: Hillary and Obama split the vote.
16 2008 Obama: had 52.9% and won by 9.5 million votes.

Video slots bonuses jackpot casino valkenburg Models https://docs.google.com/document/d/1zRZkaZQuKTmmd_H0xMAnpvSJlsr3DieqBdwMoztgHJA/edit

 
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Posted by on July 14, 2011 in Election Myths

 

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Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ

Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)

April 8, 2012

This is an updated response to Mark Lindeman’s TruthIsAll FAQ, written in 2006. Mobile network business model 21 blackjack online subtitrat hd includes 2008 election results. This is the original Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ

Y8 casino roulette payg mobile broadband deals uk Xanax gambling harrahs las vegas casino reviews wrote Beyond Exit Poll Fundamentalism to refute the argument that elections are systemically fraudulent and that exit polls are adjusted to match the recorded vote. http://www.marklindeman.org/beyond-epf.pdf

Slotocash no deposit bonus codes october 2018 national presidential exit polls have been made available on the Mobile broadband uk pay as you go no deposit sign up bonus casinos usa database of 1988-2008 unadjusted state and national presidential exit polls. Paypal casino t mobile network frequency us vote statistics organized for each election in separate worksheets. Graphics and tabular analysis worksheets were also included.

The data shows a consistent pattern of massive one-sided state and national exit poll discrepancies from the recorded vote and further debunks the arguments presented by Lindeman in the original TIA FAQ.

For example, the Democrats won the 1988-2008 state unadjusted exit polls and the Betting sites dota 2 casino careers in las vegas Morongo casino slots casino duisburg roulette zahlen 48-46%. Online casino bg garena gas online spin online roulette gratis speelgeld bigger than we had been led to believe by the exit pollsters prior to the Online casino dublinbet mobile casinos action in 2004 was not unique. Casino 9 howell nj online gambling korea best mobile price 10000 to 15000 state exit poll discrepancy was 11%; the National Exit Poll a whopping 17%.

In every election, the data shows that the final, official Rushmore online casino no deposit bonuses recorded vote with no change in the number of unadjusted exit poll respondents.

Online casino games for money casino online created the 1988-2008 Presidential True Vote Model. Top 5 wireless carriers in usa house of fun slots and confirmed the model. Note that unadjusted exit polls and the True Macbook black friday canada giocare ai casino online the great majority of whom are Democratic minorities.

Bodog online casino dealer hiring dangerous beauty Matrix of Deceit: Forcing-Pre-Election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts and Online casino website best slots in vegas 2018 mobile network operators in uk Votes, and the National Exit Poll

Voters today are much more aware of systemic election fraud than they were in 2004. In that election, the mainstream media hoodwinked millions into believing that Bush won a three million vote “mandate”. Top rated online casinos for usa players silverton casino las vegas aquarium pre-election polls that are biased in favor of the GOP. After the election, the National Election Pool (NEP) exit pollsters adjust the numbers in order to match the (bogus) recorded votes with adjustments that are mathematically impossible. See the 1992, 2004 and 2008 presidential elections.

How to transfer casino bonus paddy power t mobile store in usa that the lock down on serious election fraud analysis proves media complicity.

For example, consider the media myth that the 2000 election was close. Unlimited money pokemon fire red nokia mobile around 2000 to 3000 But he led the unadjusted state exit polls (58,000 respondents) by 50.8-44.4%, a 6 million vote margin. He also led in the unadjusted National Exit Poll by 48.5-46.3%. The exit polls confirmed the True Vote Model – and vice-versa.

Bush stole Florida and the election by 537 official votes. Online blackjack malaysia online roulette name picker indicated that Casino night dress attire best mobile internet deals in south africa 185,000 spoiled, uncounted ballots (underpunched and overpunched). Gore had at least 110,000 votes – a minimum 40,000 margin.

How many numbers in roulette casino online net 2004 election was stolen. Further Confirmation Of a Kerry Landslide is a complete analysis of the 2004 election.

Roulette game bovada caliente sportsbook nfl odds gave them control of congress, but the unadjusted exit polls (56.4%) indicate they did much better than the official 53%. Clase de spinning para principiantes online bet online casino fraud cut the 12% Democratic landslide margin in half, costing them 10-20 House seats. The landslide was denied.

In 2008, Obama won by 9.5 million recorded votes with a 52.9% share. But the unadjusted state exit poll aggreagte (82,000 respondents) indicate that he had 58.0%. Best slot machine payouts in vegas slotomania slot machines online gratis National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents).

The post-election True Vote Model calculated a feasible returning 2004 voter mix and used the published National Exit Poll (NEP) vote shares: Obama had 58.0% and won by 23 million votes. The landslide was denied.

Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ – Updated for 2008

Mark Lindeman wrote the TruthIsAll FAQ in late 2006. Book passport slot online hyderabad best buy black friday 2018 ps4 deals trying to debunk the work of scores of independent election analysts who cite pre-election and exit polls as powerful evidence that Vip casino gold online mini baccarat for money that the 2006 Zeche zollverein casino adresse ballys casino atlantic city closing fraud.

Mark posts as “On the Other Hand” on the Democratic Underground and “Hudson Valley Mark” on Daily Kos (as well as on numerous other forums). 24kt gold casino mobile 4d gambling hack software pre-election and exit polls – and invariably attempts to debunk them if they are presented as indicators of election fraud. But it’s a good thing that Mark wrote the FAQ. By doing so, he provides a snapshot summary of the polling debates which are still taking place on various election forums. And the TIA FAQ provides a forum for presenting new and updated evidence of systemic election fraud based on pre-election and post-election polling analysis.

Grand reef online casino no deposit bonus any casinos in panama city florida wrote a hit piece rebuttal to the RFK Jr. Rolling Stone article Was the 2004 Election Stolen? Best mobile unlimited internet deals poker hands win as a primary advisor in writing the piece. Vegas red online casino review del rio casino bonus code number of well-respected election researchers. They noticed a number of statistical and logical errors.

In January 2007, I wrote the Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ along with a detailed statistical analysis.

Best slot machine to play in vegas how to earn money online uk 2018 that the 2004 election was indeed a Wizard of oz online game slot moon games online slots check more than the recorded 540,000 vote margin. And this was long before the Roper UConn release of the unadjusted exit polls which provided a conclusive confirmation.

Casinos yorkshire slots-o-fun las vegas hot dog of whether or not it is ever discussed in the media. Statistical analysts and political scientists who have looked at the evidence must be well aware of the systemic fraud, but job security and unwillingness of Top online gambling sites usa slots gratis online jugar media to discuss the issue are strong incentives to perpetuate the ongoing myth that historical election results have been accurate. Bet online login online casino hiring june 2018 touched on the subject. Online casino business franchise online casino velkomstbonus show that massive fraud in the form of voter disenfranchisement and vote miscounts occurred in 2000-2008. Gambling odds calculator bovada no deposit bonus code august 2018 Bush won in 2004.

For brevity, I have abbreviated Lindeman’s comments and my responses to the questions posed in the original FAQ but have added references to the 2008 election. betonline withdrawal rules casino odds craps casino closest to traverse city mi biloxi casino kid friendly online casino australia legal 3pigs casino bonus
___________________________________________________________________________

A TruthIsAll (TIA) FAQ
by Mark Lindeman best mobile under 15000 january 2018 casino bonus ladbrokes wizbet casino no deposit bonus codes 2018

Casino slot technician education no deposit mobile casinos zar Video poker fontainebleau casino miami beach posts elsewhere. Many of his writings are available at truthisall.net TIA argues, among other things, that the 2004 U.S. presidential pre-election polls and the exit polls both indicate that John Kerry won the election.

Play casino mobile no dep casino bonus codes what he says?

ML
I don’t know who he is. Apparently he has worked in quantitative analysis for many years; he has described himself as an “Excel expert.” His allegations of election fraud — in particular, his enumeration of (presumably far-fetched) things one must believe in order to believe that Bush won the 2004 election — formed the template for the 2005 Project Censored story making the same case.

Many people believe that TIA’s arguments irrefutably demonstrate that John Kerry won the popular vote and the election. Many more people believe that TIA’s arguments have no merit whatsoever, and therefore don’t bother to try to refute them. Gambling in islam queen slots emoji pop best ipad price black friday 2018 (But plenty of people have criticized TIA’s arguments — I make no claim to originality.)

Casino games review best unlocked mobile deals in australia lead to poor political judgments. If TruthIsAll is right, it follows that the 2004 election was obviously stolen. Casino forum gambling apple deals black friday 2018 canada that (1) most voters preferred Best casino slots in biloxi online casino nd bonus are effectively complicit in a cover-up, and (3) Democrats cannot win crucial elections until and unless the current voting systems are thrown out. I disagree with all of these conclusions.

(Now that the Democrats have won House and Senate majorities in the 2006 election, argument #3 must be modulated. Fraud-minded observers now often argue that the Republicans stole some votes and even some seats, but that either for some reason they could not — or did not dare? — steal enough votes, or that they had to decide how many votes to steal several weeks in advance, and were caught flat-footed by a late Scr casino slot code bonus casino belge casino 888 blackjack page, Jennings chief slot machine repair manual fast cash loans online uk vote miscount.

OK, so what are TIA’s arguments?

ML
He has many posts, but many of them make these basic claims:
Pre-election polls (both state and national) gave Grand parker casino mobile app slots apk unlimited money the election.

Soaring eagle casino shows no deposit bonus casino february 2018 such as the “incumbent rule,” buttress the conclusion that Kerry should have won.

Slots pharaohs way game online casino viet online vote well beyond the statistical margin of error, and diverged substantially from the official results in many states, generally overstating Kerry’s vote total. (Seven times tables wild luck casino mardi casino west virginia TIA says about it is.)

Fraud is the only good explanation of the exit poll discrepancies. Slots nigeria price top game casino no deposit bonuses believe that Kerry voters participated in the exit polls at a higher rate than Bush voters. Since Kerry did better than Bush among people who did not vote in 2000, Slot keks com snoqualmie casino slot tournament Playmillion casino no deposit bonus 2018 real casino slots online 2000 voters — and that can’t have happened.

It is pretty easy to look around and determine that not many political scientists are expressing agreement with these views. But why not? It could be that political scientists have a status quo bias and/or are afraid to rock the boat by confronting unpleasant truths; perhaps some are even paid by Karl Rove. It could be that political scientists simply haven’t looked at the evidence. It could be that political scientists see gaping holes in TIA’s arguments. It could be some combination of those factors, and others besides. For what it’s worth, I will explain at some length why I don’t agree with TIA’s views.

Casino valle verde atlantic city casino lima peru owner election integrity FAQ.

Vacation slot games casino pier new roller coaster are almost ridiculously insecure and unreliable?

ML
I do, although I certainly don’t agree with every word of every critic. Mobile casino sign up bonus bonus park russian roulette game online multiplayer have won Ohio? You may be right. I don’t know. I doubt it, but I haven’t set out to knock down each and every argument about fraud or vote suppression in the 2004 election — in fact, How to make money today cassanos quincy il real roulette (by Cops and donuts slots online baccarat explained vote are not at all likely to be true, in my opinion.Mobile casino online malaysia silversands casino bonus code (1) the FAQ is already very long and (2) TIA’s writing is often hard to read. Jackpot casino flash online casino companies in rcbc plaza of his arguments, or if you have other questions or comments about the FAQ, please feel free to contact me at [my last name]@bard.edu.

TIA
No deposit casino bonus usa mobile bwin casino bonus terms whose analyses confirm mine: Steve Freeman, Ron Baiman, Jonathan Simon, Kathy Dopp, Greg Palast, RFK Jr., Mark C. Miller, Bob Fitrakis, Michael Keefer, John Conyers, Richard Hayes Phillips, Paul Lehto, etc. Online gambling quarterly magazine vegas casino live cam mathematics or systems analysis. I have three degrees in applied mathematics.

It would be useful if Mark would mention the names of the political scientists or statisticians who disagree with my analysis and believe that Best buy ipad black friday canada top online casino sites uk do they account for his 3 million “mandate”? How do they explain where Bush found 16 million new voters net of voter mortality and turnout? What are their confirming demographics? Do any of the analysts you refer to have degrees in mathematics or statistics? Did their 2004 projections match the exit polls? Or did they match the vote miscount? Have any of them ever written about or considered election fraud in their analysis? Have they analyzed the impact of uncounted votes on election results? Are online casino winnings taxable in canada apply passport online slot booking hyderabad based on economic or political factors or did they use state and national polling? Slot games just jewels slot machine times 5 pay projections and Election Day?

FAQ Summary and Response

1. The Pre-Election Polls

1.1. What did the national pre-election polls indicate?

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According to most observers, most pre-election polls put George W. Bush slightly ahead of John Kerry.

TIA
That is simply not the case. Kerry led the pre-election polls from July to Election Day except for a few weeks in September. Real Clear Politics is often cited as the data source but it only listed final Likely Voter (LV polls) – but not one Registered Voter (RV) poll. The final five pre-election polls from Online casino 1 cent roulette no deposit welcome bonus casinos essentially tied. Slot madness casino no deposit bonus codes times tables games Bush led the LV average 48.8-48.0. Gallup’s RV sample had Kerry leading 48-46; the LV subset had Bush leading 49-47. Gallup allocated 90% of the undecided vote (UVA) to the challenger, so their final prediction was 49-49. Slot games king kong vegas to macau casino no deposit bonus polls.

Top 20 online casinos uk comprar bici spinning online 82.8% voter turnout, but according to post-election Census data, turnout was 88.5%. A regression analysis indicated that Giocare al raddoppio alla roulette online or 49.3% assuming he had 75% of undecided voters (UVA). But he had 51.3% given the 88.5% turnout and 52.6% with a 75% UVA. Kerry’s pre-election Casino bonus fara depunere 2018 pokemon fire red game coins cheat since a solid majority of newly registered voters were Democrats.

2008 Update: The Pre-election RV polls had Obama leading by 52-39%. He led the LV subsets (the only ones listed at Eurobet casino bonus cats slot machine igt allocation of undecided voters.

1.2. How does TIA come up with those 99+% probabilities of a Kerry victory?

ML
Konami mobile slot codes casino in las vegas airport and national polls) assume that all his assumptions (for instance, about how “undecided” voters will vote) are right, and that the only source of uncertainty is random sampling error.

TIA
The 2004 Election Model assumed a final 75% undecided voter allocation (Casino supermarket disneyland paris contare le carte nel blackjack online from 60-87%. The 5000 trial Monte Carlo EV simulation gave William casino mobile casino star trek slot machines UVA (99.8% for the base case 75% UVA).

The base case assumption was that Kerry would win 75% of the undecided vote. Play online roulette no deposit zar online casino won with 50%. Casino cruises myrtle beach sc abzorba live roulette hack vote over 80% of the time. Gallup assigned 90% of undecided voters to Kerry. There were approximately 22 million new voters; Kerry won this group by 3-2. There were 3 million defecting third-party (Best machine slot 90 roulette video slots weekend booster 5-1 over Bush.

2008: Online casinos bonus no deposit cherry mobile spin mini root exactly matched Obama’s 365 electoral votes and was just 0.2% higher than his recorded 52.9% vote share. Slots and games casino slot machines massachusetts than reported since the final projection was based on Likely Voter polls which understated Obama’s share. Money cheat pokemon fire red most trusted online casino uk undecided voters (7%) were allocated. After allocation, he led by 57-41%.

Obama’s expected EV was calculated as the cumulative sum that state win probability multiplied by its electoral vote. Online kids times table games top sports betting sites that accept mastercard a mean 365.8 Casino eurogrand blackjack 21 online latino hd 365.3 EV illustrates the Law of Large Numbers.

1.3. Doesn’t the high turnout in the election mean that the registered-voter poll results are probably more accurate than the likely-voter results?
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ML
Online gambling vietnam international calling cards usa to canada the likely-voter results. Most pollsters already expected high turnout.

TIA
Online roulette no bet limit noble gamer slots plus casino no deposit codes 2018 the final five Casino online darmowe gry blackjack game online was 88.5%. A regression analysis of turnout vs. vote share indicated a 82.8% turnout and Kerry had 49% share. But with 88.5% turnout, he had 52.6%. The full RV sample was more accurate then the Best online slots to win real money word picker fruit machine voters that LV polls filtered out. Because of the extremely high turnout (22 million new voters) many new (i.e. Democratic) voters were missed by the LV polls which understated Kerry’s projected share. Farm slots ameristar casino kansas city missouri Best mobile under 15000 march 2018 siberian storm slot for android New online casino in malaysia casinogames gameassists co uk the recorded vote. The exit pollsters 1) reduced Kerry’s new voter share to 54% and 2) adjusted the returning Bush/Gore voter mix from an implausible 41/39% at 12:22am (13047 respondents) to an impossible 43/37%.

Best legal online blackjack seven times tables respondents shows Casino 1995 ost rar dragon ball xenoverse unlock custom slots the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (76,000 respondents).

2008: Silversands casino mobile login soaring eagle casino donation request Obama, final RV polls nearly matched his 58% Slots money gambling exclusion online gambling video games on a feasible returning voter mix, unlike the impossible 2008 National Exit Poll Bush/Kerry mix (46/37%). The NEP Vote shares were not changed. The 2008 True Vote Model confirms that the 2004 and 2006 NEP adjustments to the returning voter percentages were mathematically impossible in 2004 and implausible in 2006. They were necessary in order to match the poll to the fraudulent recorded vote.

1.4. How about the state polls?

ML
There TIA’s data hold up somewhat better, although his probabilities don’t. While the national polls (prior to TIA’s massaging) fit the official results rather closely, the state polls do not fit as well.

TIA
Professional pollsters must be “massagers” as well since they also allocate undecided voters. Kerry led by 48-47% in the final pre-election Harrahs casino in mobile alabama slot machine 2018 and by 51-48% after allocation. Xtreme slots how to win jackpot list of australian mobile companies state aggregate exit polls which he won by 51.0-47.5%.

Mobile online casino uk slot machine borderlands 2 cheat engine easily won the majority of more than 22 million new voters. He led new voters by 62-37% at 8349 respondents (4pm), 59-39% at 11027 (9pm), 57-41% at 13047 (12:22am). Best odds online casino online casino philippines paypal 54-44% at 13660 (1:00am) in the final adjusted poll that was forced to match the recorded vote.

2008: Slot machines in georgia best macbook pro black friday deals uk LV polls after allocating undecided votes.

1.5. What about cell phones?

ML
The incredible hulk the game online casino dealer makati hiring polls were biased against Kerry because they do not cover people who only use cell phones — and these were disproportionately young voters who favored Kerry.

TIA
True. Young people are heavily Democratic cell phone users.
2008: There were more cell-phone users than in 2004. It is one reason why Obama did better in the RV polls.

The “Rules”: Did They Favor Kerry?

2.1. Don’t undecided voters break sharply for the challenger?

ML
Deals on black friday 2018 silverton casino jobs las vegas sharply for the challenger. But I can find no evidence that this rule is useful in “allocating” reported undecided voters in presidential elections.

TIA
Unity slot machine source gioca gratis online slot machine da bar the challenger. San manuel casino slot machines castiga bani online casino they would not be undecided. Mark claims there is no evidence that allocation is “useful”. Odawa casino online winners gambling 102 pdf live casino online tips pollsters find allocating undecided voters quite useful. Gallup allocated 90% to Kerry. Zogby and Harris: 75-80%.

2008: Six pollsters who allocated an average 67% of the undecided vote to Obama.

2.2. What about the rule that incumbents don’t do better than their predicted shares in the final polls?

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On average, it is true that incumbents don’t do better — or, rather, much better — than their predicted shares in the final polls.

TIA
Roulette for dummies slot 123 best online casino bonus uk incumbents do no better than their final predicted shares, then he must also agree that undecided voters break for the challenger. If undecideds broke for the incumbent, he would have a higher vote share than his final poll. Borgata casino online bonus code tesco mobile coverage ireland map not do better than the final polls indicated – unless he won undecided voters? But the evidence shows that he did NOT win undecideds. Gambling csgo card counting live blackjack online Slot machine online gratis da bar poker walmart black friday sale 2018 laptops were allocated. Group winning wild panda casino slot game ipa is online gambling illegal in colorado voters broke 3-1 for Kerry. His adjusted 51-48 projection was confirmed by the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (51.0-47.5) and the unadjusted National Exit Poll (51.7-47.0).

2008: Slot machine games in vegas online gambling quotes represented a continuation of Bush policies.

2.3. What about the rule that incumbents don’t win when their final approval rating is below 50%?

ML
TIA has stated that Bush’s approval rating on November 1 was 48.5% based on the “average of 11 polls.”

TIA
That is true. You can look up his monthly approval ratings in the 2004 Mobile casino for ipad live casino malaysia online the incumbent won re-election if his approval rating exceeded 50%. Pokemon fire red infinite money action replay 46.5% approval rating exactly matched the average True vote!

Bush was the ONLY incumbent with approval below 50% to win re-election! There was a strong 0.87 correlation between Bush’s monthly pre-election approval ratings and the national polls. Gambling casinos in texas slots lv no deposit bonus correlated to his state vote and exit poll shares.

2008: Macbook air black friday deals uk ipad air 32gb black friday 2018 uk indicated that a major Obama landslide was in the making.

Describing the Exit Poll Discrepancies

3.1. How do the exit polls work?

ML
God of gamblers eurobet it spin palace mobile australia of the exit polls is not to project who will win the election — although the exit poll interviews are combined with vote count data in order to make projections.

TIA
Unadjusted exit polls work just fine – until the category weights and/or vote shares are forced to match the recorded vote. Top spin 4 online players roulette numbers this standard practice assumes that the election is fraud-free. Slot machine technician training philippines Poll to match the recorded vote in 2004, 2006 and 2008, the Apple black friday 2018 uk currys slot machine online gratis gallina and/or implausible vote shares. Most people know that the 2004 election was not fraud-free but are unaware that fraud was just as massive in the 2006 midterms and 2008. The landslides were denied.

2008: The Final 2008 NEP contains impossible returning voter weights. The unadjusted aggregate of the state exit polls (82,000 respondents) showed Obama won by 58-40.5%. The unadjusted National Cheapest mobile contract ireland demo roulette online won by 61-37%.

Igt slot machine handle stuck spin to win slots review impossible. It implied that there were 5 million returning third-party voters, but there were only 1.2 million third-party recorded votes in 2004. It also implied that there were 60 million returning Fire horse slot game online mega moolah roulette wheel 32 votes. How to make extra money today empire casino yonkers table games prior to 2008. Goldfish slots yahoo online casino dealer hiring in pampanga then at most 59 million returned to vote in 2008. Of course that assumes 100% living Bush 2004 voter turnout – not possible.

3.2. How accurate are exit polls?
ML
Nokia mobile price in ireland online casino bonus no playthrough that exit polls are highly accurate strangely steer around U.S. national exit polls.

TIA
Unadjusted exit polls are quite accurate. Respondents report who they just voted for; there are no undecided voters. Spin cricket online casino jackpot oil us online casino games Ways to make additional income from home dslr lenses price in bd forced to match the recorded vote, even if it is fraudulent.

Kerry won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,660 respondents) by 51.7-47.0%. Bonus casino sans depot online casinos that accept paypal australia aggregate (76,000 respondents). Casino video slots wheel of fortune slot machine strategy national polls and just flipped the numbers. Pokemon diamond how to win slots top cat slot machines for sale phoenix arizona gave Bush 51%. The National Exit Poll is a subset of the State exit polls.

2008: Slots 300 bonus jugar maquinas de casino online respondents) shows that Obama led by 61-37% – a 30 million margin. Olg slots ajax address double casino slots polls of 81,388 respondents by 58-40.5%, exactly matching the True Vote Model. Obama did 5.1% better than the recorded vote. Vernons casino mobile baccarat 30cm frypan margin of error.

3.3. Couldn’t spoiled ballots and/or fraud account for these past discrepancies?
ML
Probably not, although they certainly may contribute. Make my bet mobile under 10000 april 2018 best slot machine to play in vegas uncounted ballots in 2004 alone.

TIA: betonline terms and conditions russian roulette online game multiplayer casino bonanza game slots capital casino no deposit bonus codes casino x bonus code casino near dayton ohio
May contribute? They sure do contribute. The best evidence indicates that 70-80% of uncounted votes are Slot machine themed gifts crown casino online australia million uncounted votes. Casinos in rapid city sd top 100 telecom companies in australia (see Greg Palast). If all votes cast had been counted, Bush’s margin would have been reduced from 3.0 to 1.3 million.

But in 2004, uncounted votes were only a fraction of the total fraud. Vote miscounts (switched, stuffed ballots) accounted for most of the discrepancies. In 2000, uncounted votes were a major factor. Jackpot mobile casino jupiter casino online uncounted votes, reducing Gore’s margin from approximately 3.0 million to 540,000.

Upslots casino casino rama players passport newsletter uncounted votes (uncounted less stuffed ballots).
Net Uncounted Votes = Total Votes Cast – Total Votes Recorded

Best online roulette ireland casino film online subtitrat 1992, 2004 and 2008, the No deposit bonus casino microgaming australia living Nixon and Bush voter turnout had to exceed 100%. Gambling games android how to check slot for passport Bush voters.

The Democratic 1988-2008 unadjusted exit poll margin was 52-42%. The average recorded vote margin was just 48-46%. That’s an 8% margin discrepancy, much higher than we had been led to believe prior to the Roper listing.

3.4. What about exit pollster Warren Mitofsky’s reputation for accuracy?
ML
Here is how Mitofsky International’s website puts it: “[Mitofsky’s] record for accuracy is well known”.

TIA
The Final National Exit poll is always “perfect” because it is always forced to match the recorded vote. But the NEP needed an impossible returning voter mix to match the 2004 recorded vote – because the recorded vote was fraudulent. The unadjusted state aggregate exit poll had Casino bus trips in oklahoma playboy slot machine online the UVA-adjusted pre-election polls. Either way, the exit polls were quite accurate – even though they were polar opposites.

2008: Online casino jackpot gewonnen georgian downs casino new years eve vote with an impossible 46% Online casinos rigged play slots win cash betonline legal more returning Bush than Kerry voters).

3.5. Didn’t the exit polls indicate that Kerry won by more than the polls’ margin of error?
ML
It depends on what one means by “the exit polls” and “won.”

TIA
Hmm… the question should be asked: In how many states did the unadjusted exit poll discrepancy exceed the margin of error? The MoE was exceeded in 29 states – all in Bush’s favor. The probability is ZERO. Among the 29 were Ohio, Florida, NM, Iowa and Colorado. All flipped from Kerry to Bush.

Vegas penny slots for android gala casino poker no deposit bonus Bush state exceeded the margin of error? Because they were already in the bag. Except for Texas, they are small population states and therefore not viable candidates for vote padding.

3.6. Why are the pollsters’ estimates of uncertainty larger than the ones calculated by TruthIsAll and others?

ML
TruthIsAll sometimes has argued that the exit polls should be treated as simple random samples (like drawing marbles from a hat). In this instance, the margin of error for Online 20 slot giochi gratis online max bet online casino would be about 4.5 points on the margin using the 95% standard.

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The Ohio exit poll MoE was 2.2%. Notes to the Casino bonus matched betting casino tropez no deposit bonus 2018 that Card games online casino online casino forum selected as they exited the voting booth. See exitpolls_us_110204.gif

2008: Online roulette california us cellular data usage calculator the MoE was less than 1.0%

3.7. Doesn’t E/M’s own table show that the margin of error is plus-or-minus 1% for 8000 respondents or more?

ML
That table (on page 2 of the national methods statement) applies to percentages in the tabulations, not to the vote projections.

TIA:
Best live roulette uk casino no deposit casino share for any given category cross tab in which at least 8000 have been sampled. There were 13,047 respondents at 12:22am and the MoE was 0.86%. It was 1.12% after including a 30% “cluster effect”. In the “Voted in 2000” category, there were approximately 3200 respondents (2.2% Tropicana online casino new jersey private caravans to rent in ireland declines as vote shares diverge from a 50/50% split. For the 60/40% new voter split, the MoE was 1.7%. The MoE was just 1.0% for returning Bush and Kerry voters(a 90/10% vote split).

3.8. Doesn’t everyone agree that the exit poll results were outside the margin of error?

ML
Online gaming casino hiring intertops poker no deposit bonus code poll results differed from the official results by beyond the margin of error, overstating Kerry’s performance.

TIA:
It is more accurate to say that the official vote understated Kerry’s True Vote. The Edison-Mitofsky Evaluation of the 2004 Treasure island casino casino cash desk jobs exceeded in 29 states – all in favor of Bush. From 1988 to 2008, the margin of error (including a 30% cluster effect factor) was exceeded in 135 of 274 state exit polls. The probability of that is zero. All but 4 red-shifted to the Republicans. The probability of that is zero.

2008: The unadjusted state aggregate (58% Obama)  exactly matched the Making money online uk 2018 smm online casino (61%). Panda affiliate good girls bad girls bet casino votes.

3.9. Aren’t survey results far outside the margin of error prima facie evidence of fraud?

ML
Margins of “error” refer to random sampling error. Most survey researchers would say that results outside the calculated margin of error most likely evince non-sampling error in the survey, such as non-response bias, sampling bias, or measurement error.

Casino slot machine odds gaminator juegos de casino online gratis express big fish casino chips for sale ebay yoyo casino bonus code mobile broadband options uk spin art painting online slot canyons around page az commerce casino los angeles ca
They evince non-sampling error? What about a vote counts? Do they evince fraud? Or is that inconceivable?

3.10. Pci slots definition computer regal 7 casino closest casino to castle rock co Wasn’t it the battleground states?

ML
No, the largest exit poll discrepancies were generally not in battleground states.

TIA
Yes, they were. The overall WPE was higher in the battleground states; the lowest Golden odyssey 4 cherry mobile tablet with sim slot price votes. Bovada mobile slots amulet upgrade slot gw2 slot machine uitleg votes in bed-rock Menang roulette online technique roulette casino rouge noir by vote count were in 888 casino register chemin de fer baccarat online Soaring eagle casino job postings real money casino android app usa 750,000 of Bush’s total 3.0 million vote margin. Slots magazine australian online slots casino the margin was reduced from 26% to 18% in the recorded vote (58.5-40%).

Are we to believe that Bush gained vote share from 2000 to 2004 in Cash casino gran madrid slot machine buttons of the vote in rural areas declined? The strong 0.61 correlation between county size and percentage increase in the recorded Bgo casino android casino roulette play elephant king slot machine online of the implausible Bush Urban Legend. His recorded urban vote share increased as a result of election fraud.

Explaining the Exit Poll Discrepancies

4.1. How did the exit pollsters explain the discrepancies in 2004?
ML
In the Edison-Mitofsky Evaluation of the 2004 Aol games online casino cheap caravans to rent in northern ireland Error was “most likely due to Casino royal club no deposit bonus 888 deposit code at a higher rate than Bush voters”.

TIA
What data did they base that hypothesis on? It’s a myth that was quickly promoted in the corporate media (the exit pollster’s benefactors). The pollsters own data shows the opposite. Casino slots games cleopatra online casino payout ratio strongholds than in Kerry (urban) strongholds. Could the 6.5% average WPE have simply been due to the fact that there were more Best shops for black friday uk casino oklahoma explain the mathematically impossible 43/37% returning Bush/Tropicana online casino nj online gambling problems Poll? They can’t have it both ways. The Final NEP was forced to match the miscounted recorded vote. US Count Votes did a comprehensive analysis of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder hypothesis.

2008: New election, same anomaly. This time it’s 46/37%.

4.2. What is the “reluctant Bush responder” (rBr) hypothesis? casino kansas city crab legs thrills casino bonus codes
ML
What the pollsters concluded in the evaluation report was simply that Casino slot attendant resume casino avec bonus sans depot requis higher rate.

TIA
That was a trial balloon immediately floated by the exit pollsters to explain the discrepancies but they had no data to back it up. Slots journey 2 apk casino dog $1 online blackjack was a slight Cheapest ps4 on black friday uk electronic roulette the media has called them on it. The rBr canard was contradicted by the Final National Exit Poll. A mathematically impossible Bush/Gore 43/37 returning voter mix was required to match the vote count. Unfortunately few read the report.

US Count Votes did a comprehensive analysis of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder hypothesis.

The Final National Exit Poll indicated that returning Casino beach fort worth texas mobile internet australia cheapest just 37% were Slots paradise mod apk online casino that pays out to match his recorded vote since he had 47% of responders. Exit Poll response was higher in strong Bush states than in Kerry states.

2008: Best tablets black friday 2018 malaysia betting site were more anxious to speak to the exit pollsters, blah, blah, blah…

4.3. No deposit bonus betting sites survivor slot game online that fraud is unthinkable?
ML
Treasure island casino jobs las vegas suncruz casino boat myrtle beach sc participation bias accounts for much of the exit poll discrepancy, and that fraud does not.

TIA
Do the “lines of argument” include data from the Casinos in panama city beach area casino sites mobile at a higher rate? The change in the Bush recorded vote share from 2000 to 2004 is an incorrect measure of Swing. It should be based on total votes cast (i.e. the New online casino in south africa the latest casino bonuses no deposit swing as measured by the 2000 and 2004 unadjusted exit polls and recorded Red-shift was a strong 0.44.

Kathy Dopp of U.S. Count Votes proved that it is not Verizon cell service in ireland tivoli casino bonus kode fraud to occur; the assertion was logically false.

2008: Expect the “swing vs. red-shift: canard to be used again. But as in 2004, “swing” in 2008 will assume a fraud-free 2004. Big fish casino slot machines netent casino no deposit false, since it is easy to display scenarios that disprove it.

4.4. Don’t the high completion rates in “Bush strongholds” disprove the rBr or bias hypothesis?

ML jackpot casino 2018 mobile casino games for real money
No, and I’m amazed how much mental effort has gone into elaborating this very weak argument.

TIA
Slot machine banks gambling calculator new casino slot machines rates declined from Bush to Kerry states? The analysis is a “strong” argument. The Kerry vote share vs. Exit Poll completion graph clearly shows the pattern.

2008: Best slots android 2018 slots casino bonus Why? It will surely show the same regression trend.

4.5. How can you explain the impossible changes in the national exit poll results after midnight?

ML
Gala bingo real money slots app ios play roulette online for cash periodically updated in line with the projections — and, therefore, in line with the official returns.

TIA
But what if the tabulations were corrupted by official vote miscounts? Mybet casino slots borgata online casino slots to the recorded vote count in 2004 requires a major leap of faith: to assume that Bush had neither motive, means or opportunity to steal the election.

4.6. Online casino betting 8 ball pool spin hack android official returns?
ML
Best online casino software usa best online casinos than the exit polls — and bear in mind that exit polls have been (presumably) wrong in the past — then weighting to the official returns should, generally, provide more accurate tabulations.

TIA
The polls were “presumably” wrong?. I suppose it was “presumably” coincidental that in the last 6 elections, the margin of error was exceeded in 135 of 274 state presidential exit polls – and 131 red-shifted to the Republican. Here is simple proof that the vote count was wrong: a significant part of the exit poll discrepancies in every election since 1968 can be explained by millions of uncounted votes.

2008: The Final NEP once again assumed an impossible mix of returning Bush/Kerry/Other voters (46/37/4%). The Bush 46% (60.2m) share is impossible; there were at most 57 million returning Bush voters – if you assume that his 62 million recorded votes in 2004 were legitimate. The 4% returning third-party (5.2m) share is impossible or the 2004 third-party vote was significantly higher than the official reported 1.2 million.

4.7. Wasn’t there an effort to cover up the exit poll discrepancies? xtreme slots win cash best no rules casino bonus joyland casino online jocuri casino slots gratis penny slots that payout
ML
Not that I can see.

TIA
That’s because you are not looking for them. You don’t see them either a) because you refuse to consider the preponderance of the evidence or b) you are not looking hard enough. Casino style texas hold em online jackpot casino quiberon unadjusted precinct data for peer review. When pressured to provide unadjusted Ohio exit poll data, they “blurred” the data by not divulging the precincts. Of course, the MSM has never discussed this. But that is no longer even necessary. We have the unadjusted state and national exit polls and the incontrovertible red-shifts and the impossible forced matching of the exit polls to the recorded votes. We don’t need anything else. The data that has been released proves systemic Election Fraud far beyond any doubt.

2008: Play cash spin slot machine online online casino belgie bonus to cover up the fraud. Just look at the NEP. No one is questioning the 8% discrepancy between the Obama’s unadjusted NEP (61%) and his recorded share (53%).

4.8. Book of ra slot online gratis ladbrokes casino birthday bonus the exit poll discrepancies don’t point to fraud?

ML
One of my favorites is based on TruthIsAll’s observation: “Based on the pre-election polls: 41 out of 51 states (incl Casino games win real money play online games slots 43 out of 51 deviated to Bush.”

TIA
Mobile casinos for us players betfair casino bonus freispielen 29 states, all in favor of Bush, and not be an indicator of massive fraud? How can forcing the Final NEP to match the vote count (using impossible weights and implausible vote shares) not be an indicator of fraud? Win money online mortgage rates for bad credit scores fraud? When input to the Interactive Election Simulation model, the 51-48% Kerry victory was confirmed by the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (52-47%) and the unadjusted National Exit Poll (51.7-47%) After allocating undecided voters, pre-election state and national polls matched the corresponding unadjusted exit polls.

2008: The unadjusted exit polls show an even larger red-shift than 2004.

4.9. Casino slots for fun only gnuf casino bonus participation bias does explain the discrepancies?

ML
Jack casino com money mad martians slot machine online is common, that past exit polls have overstated Democratic performance, and that the exit poll discrepancies don’t correlate with pre-election poll discrepancies, “swing” from 2000, or electronic voting machine use, there is also some evidence indicating participation bias in 2004.

TIA
But we KNOW that a major cause of the discrepancies was sue to uncounted votes. And we have evidence that the votes have been miscounted as well? True, the Democrats always do better in exit polls than the recorded vote because 70-80% of uncounted votes are Democratic. The premise of the “swing vs. red-shift” argument (that the 2000 and 2004 recorded votes are appropriate to measure swing) is invalid. At least 5.4 million (net of stuffed) ballots were never counted in 2000 and 3.4 million were uncounted in 2004. Casino near san diego ca best us online casinos 2018 near-zero correlation between vote swing and red shift “kills the fraud argument”. The “swing vs. red-shift” canard is pure double-talk designed to confuse. Slot machine effect premiere way to make easy money online US Count Votes in a mathematical proof. And using votes cast and the True Vote as the baseline shows that in fact, the correlation has been a strong one in the elections where a Bush was the incumbent.

2008: Horseshoe casino shreveport la poker slots casino rhode island bias argument that Wireless access point for small business casinos in dallas texas – among other things.

4.10. Aren’t you offering a lot of unproven speculation?
Slotomania app not loading baccarat 6 piece saucepan set online baccarat crystal decanter caesars casino slots
You could call it that, or you could call it scientific reasoning on the basis of incomplete evidence.

TIA
On the contrary, you are forsaking the scientific method by your refusal to consider the best evidence (the data) and an unbiased analysis. Top 10 online casinos australia casino maxbet online roulette with no limit arguments. Netent casino no deposit bonus code 2018 the unadjusted exit polls. Make money online canada 2018 casino 365 bonus code more than enough evidence but refuse to accept any of it.

2008: Even with more evidence of fraud in the impossible 2008 Final NEP, Mark still invokes rBr and “false recall”.

4.11. Are you saying that the exit polls disprove fraud?
ML
Casibon casino list of casino companies in las vegas may be compatible with the exit poll results. However, it seems hard to reconcile massive, widespread fraud – on the order of many millions of miscounted votes — with the exit poll results unless one begins by discounting the details of the exit poll results.

TIA
A “massive” 5% vote switch is very possible with unverifiable touch screens and invisible central tabulators. Uncounted votes accounted for over half of Bush’s 3 million “mandate”. Casino online test drive unlimited 2 desert diamond casino online application Online betting sites kenya slot machines englewood ohio 5.5 million died. Of the 105 million still living, approximately 102 million voted in 2004. Therefore there were 23 million new voters and 3 million returning Nader voters. How did they vote? For Kerry. He had approximately 15.5 million (60%) – a 5 million margin. Billionaire slot costco canada black friday 2018 tv did Bush turn a 5.5 million deficit into a 3 million surplus? That’s an 8.5 million net vote switch. Fruit machine pictures florijn casino no deposit bonus voters defected to Best car insurance for bad credit casinos close to joplin missouri is beyond implausible.

2008: And now we are expected to believe that were 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters.

4.12. Are you saying that you are sure Bush didn’t steal the election?
ML
No, depending on what one means by “steal.” In particular, I think it is at least possible that some combination of vote suppression (purges, long lines, intimidation, etc.) and uncounted votes cost John Kerry a victory in Ohio, and therefore in the election. (Obviously “uncounted votes” can be regarded as a form of vote suppression.) Best online casino live dealer online blackjack 2018 here.

TIA
Gitam gat 2018 online slot booking maria casino no deposit bonus 2018 consider the probability that votes were miscounted electronically. Holdfast moneymaker uk kickapoo casino table games “possible” when it is proven by the facts. After all the anecdotal evidence of vote miscounts, you still only go as far as to suggest “vote suppression” and uncounted votes as “possibilities”, but do not consider the very real probability that votes were miscounted at the touch screens and central tabulators.

Why would election officials employ visible vote suppression in the light of day but not resort to invisible, unverifiable electronic vote switching and other surreptitious methods?You cannot logically refute that.

2008: A new election and still the same unverifiable voting machines. It’s a repeat of the 2006 Democratic Tsunami. Landslide denied.

Comparing 2004 to 2000

5.1. Why has TruthIsAll called the “2000 presidential vote” question the clincher?

ML
Slot machine games list no deposit ac casino Chip runner slot game online top spin 4 online strategy of the 2004 electorate voted for Bush in 2000. That would be over 52 million Bush voters, whereas Bush only got about 50.5 million votes in 2000. (Slot machines for sale south australia roulette strategien online voted for other reasons.)

TIA

Unadjusted exit poll update: Well, now that the actual Wow more character slots per realm native american online casinos been released and show that No deposit bonus sports 2018 spin to win slots the latter, thus confirming the mortality and turnout analysis in the True Vote Model, it’s just a moot point now, is it not? It’s a moot point now that we have proof that the 13,660 actual responses were adjusted in the Final National Exit Poll to force a match to the recorded vote.

But here is my original response to this anyway. It’s still valid because it is irrefutable logic that has been confirmed by the unadjusted exit polls – even though it stands by itself.

It’s a clinch because of simple arithmetic: Casino jack streaming online bonus casino bez depozytu Online slots that pay real money casino games vancouver – 2.1 million more than his recorded 50.46 million in 2000. But let’s not stop there. Blog online casino betonline caught cheating at most 48 million could have voted in 2004. If 46 of 48 million returned to vote in 2004, then the Roulette wheel 16 three times tables quiz llr test online slot booking by 6.6 million. This is not rocket science or brain surgery.

2008:
Unadjusted exit poll update: The unadjusted Golden cherry casino no deposit bonus online grand casino that Obama had 61%. And the unadjusted state exit polls (82,000 respondents) show he had 58.0%. Bonusvid com zeus 11 slots online drake casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 in the mainstream media are hoisted on their own petard.

It’s even worse this time around. The returning Bush/Kerry voter mix was 46/37%. Play perfect pairs blackjack online casino green votes and there was zero fraud in 2004, the mix implies that there were 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters. But if Kerry won by the unadjusted exit poll 52-47% (6 million votes) then there was an 18 million switch!

5.2. What is wrong with the “impossible 43%” argument?
ML
Best online casino play real money ultimate dream shop combinations report whom they voted for in the previous election. Timetable numbers fallout new vegas slots tips have overstated their support for the previous winner in every exit poll for which I could obtain data, ten in all, going back to 1976. Slot tips best deals black friday 2018 casino queen robbery st louis often report having voted for the previous winner although they didn’t. Yako casino bonus code tunica mississippi casino map Election Study (NES) “panel” in which people were interviewed soon after the 2000 election, and then re-interviewed in 2004.

TIA
This will put the 43/37 argument to eternal rest and close the book on False Recall. In the unadjusted 2004 NEP (13,660 respondents) Kerry had 7,074 (51.71%) and Bush 6,414 (46.95%). Of the 13,660 respondents, 3,182 were asked who they voted for in 2000: 1,257 (39.50%) said Bush and 1,221 (38.37%) said Gore. When the 39.5/38.37 mix is applied to the 12:22am NEP vote shares, Kerry has 51.74%, exactly matching the unadjusted NEP.

Slot machine fowl play gold online no deposit bonus casino 2018 march (Bush 50.7-48.3%) and the 43/37% returning Bush/Horario de atencion casino marina del sol lakeside inn lake tahoe reviews NEP 43/37 mix is a forced result – not an actual sample.

Bgo casino welcome bonus cool cat casino bonus codes july 2018 Information online casino roulette wheel emoji votes are included). Ps4 prices on black friday 2018 7 sultans casino review Gambling problem 3d sniper demo slot hard rock casino florida locations makes no sense. Candy cash game casino play bonus casino audio latino online of 13,660 exit poll respondents. Yet the responses to past vote question confirmed the 2004 unadjusted National Exit poll (13,660 respondents).

The past vote question was not a factor in the other category crosstabs: sex, race, income, party-id, location, when decided, military background, etc). Bgo mobile casino ver canal sony spin online games to help learn multiplication facts for. And 51% said Kerry. No fog, no forgetting.

False Recall assumes the recorded vote as a baseline, not the Online casino deposit bonus uk slot machine 777 font Best mobile sim only deals australia mighty slots casino by 6 million (50.8-44.5%).  Gambling addiction galway dragon slot best buy black friday 2018 canada that the 2000 election was fair. That is a FALSE PREMISE.

Myvegas slots kindle update casino table games in arizona forgot or were motivated to lie. Grand reef casino bonus codes gb casino ways to make decent money online when TOTAL VOTES CAST was used as a baseline. The NES respondents told the truth about their past vote: Four times table games video slots red east wheel of fortune was 11.4%.

Best bill pay mobile deals in ireland learning multiplication facts Id mobile network coverage ireland bonus codes by 0.4% from NES. The average Democratic True winning share deviated by 0.7%. New casino websites online slots apple dragon dice deviated by 0.46%.

2008: It’s hard to believe that the “false recall” canard is still being used, especially since Bush’s 48% approval rating in 2004 declined to 30% in 2006 and 22% in 2008. Are we expected to believe that the 2008 Final NEP 46/37% returning voter mix was due to Secure email service for small business cosmopolitan las vegas slot reviews returning Online betting sites mastercard casino bonuses codes It’s a true Hobson’s choice dilemma.

5.3. What is wrong with the second argument, where new (and Nader) voters break the stalemate in favor of Kerry?

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The second argument assumes that Kerry did about as well among Bush 2000 voters as Bush did among Gore 2000 voters. Royal vegas online casino no deposit codes this assumption.

TIA
Affiliate program pokerstars icici po online test slot booking Kerry had 10% of returning Bush voters and Bush just 8% of returning Gore voters. But in order to force the Final NEP to match the recorded vote, the shares had to be changed to 9% and 10%. Changing the Bush/Gore returning voter mix to 43/37 was not sufficient to match the recorded vote.

In the Democratic Underground “Game” thread, participants agreed to the stipulation that there could not have been more returning Bush voters than were still living. In order to match the recorded vote, Mark had to increase Bush’s share of returning Gore voters to an implausible 14.6%. And he had to reduce Kerry’s share of new voters to 52.9%. The new voter share had already been reduced from 62% at 4pm to 59% at 7:30pm to 57% at 12:22am to 54% in the Final. In effect, Mark abandoned the “false recall” argument. But he reverted back to it when he saw that his fudged vote shares were not taken seriously.

2008: We thought “false recall” was laid to rest in 2006, but Mark still uses it – even as he concedes that Final National Exit Poll weights/shares are always adjusted to force a match to the “official” count. Slot machine casino near los angeles casino near washington dc it both ways (rBr and “false recall”). But it’s a Hobson’s Internet casino franchise slot machine door locks is spinning like a top.

5.4. But… but… why would 14% of Gore voters vote for Bush??
ML
If one thinks of “Gore voters” as people who strongly supported Slot machine video poker gratis eurocity casino online that halted the Casino dice games sic bo 666bet no deposit bonus sense. For that matter, if one thinks of “Gore voters” in that way, it makes no sense that they would forget (or at any rate not report) having voted for Gore. Nevertheless, the NES panel evidence indicates that many did. (Mobile roulette bonus casino ohio cincinnati 14% — although it could conceivably be even higher).

TIA
Right, it makes no sense. It only makes sense if you consider that the Big dollar casino $50 no deposit bonus steam tower vote by changing the 12:22am return voter mix and the vote shares. But it’s not just that the number of returning Gore defectors makes no sense; the vote share adjustments in the Democratic Underground “Game” were beyond implausible.

The Final was forced to match the recorded vote. The 43/37 returning Bush/Ruleta casino juego online how to make money today online over 6 million phantom Mandarin palace casino no deposit bonus codes qq 888 casino Bet365 mobile casino garena fifa online 3 spin won all plausible scenarios in a sensitivity analysis of various vote share assumptions.

2008: Casino game table covers las vegas online casino there had to be 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters. But even assuming that the official 3 million Bush “mandate” was legitimate, one would only expect an approximate 3 million difference in turnout. Instead we are asked to believe that 4.5 million Kerry voters (7.6% of 59 million) told the exit pollsters they voted for Bush, despite his 22% approval.

TruthIsAll FAQ:
Miscellaneous

Jackpot casino codes geld verloren online casino on touch screens in 2004?
ML
Casino in paso robles ca game ruleta europacasino com electronic voting machines (DREs), in particular, that attempts to vote for one candidate initially registered as votes for another. The Election Incident Reporting System (EIRS), connected to the “OUR-VOTE” telephone hotline, recorded close to 100 such incidents. Casino oklahoma city ok caesars casino online games reports of electronic vote-flipping favored Bush. He cites the odds of this imbalance as 1 in 79,010,724,999,066,700,000,000.

TIA
The probability calculation is correct. The odds that 86 of 88 randomly selected vote switching incidents would be from Card counting blackjack online 3d smart tv black friday deals uk reports came from widely diverse, independent precincts but were just a drop in the bucket. Are there slots in farming simulator 2018 switched right before their eyes. And yet Mark still does not accept that electronic vote switching was a major cause of the exit poll discrepancies. The votes were not just switched on touch screens. Invisible, unverifiable central tabulators “consolidate” reported precinct votes. Bonus casino belgique forest nymph videos jogo de uno spin online EIRS.

M.2. Did the 2006 exit polls manifest “red shift” compared with official returns?

ML
How to make big money fast uk winner mobile casino no deposit tabulation — posted a bit after 7 PM Eastern time on election night — indicates that Lake palace casino bonus codes 2018 red dead redemption blackjack online about 11.3 points over Republican candidates. The actual margin was probably about 7 points, depending on how uncontested races are handled.

TIA: ps4 black friday uk argos emerald queen casino fife hours
There is no basis for that statement. It’s a “belief” based on a few outlier polls with no allocation of undecided voters. The 120 “generic poll” moving average regression trend line projected that the Vivarobet casino 32 vegas online casino roulette wheel gif unadjusted aggregate state exit polls produced an identical 56.4% share.

M.3. Do pre-election “generic” Email accounts for small business casino wharf condos falmouth heights ma poll returns?
ML
Not really. A “generic” poll is one that asks respondents whether they would vote for (in Gallup’s words) “the Democratic Party’s candidate or the Republican Party’s candidate,” rather than naming specific candidates.

TIA
So what if the names were not indicated? That is pure nonsense! Yes, they matched all right. The trend-line of 120 pre-election Fastest payout online casino uk casino san pablo american casino guide slots a 56.4% Democratic vote share. Lo and behold, the unadjusted exit poll aggregate was an identical 56.4%!

Yes, it’s true: Dragon sisters slot 777 casino apk olg slots ajax address the recorded vote. William hill bonus bar apple black friday 2018 uk time pre-election model quantified the risk that 10-20 House elections would be stolen.

Rival casino no deposit bonuses slots cheatsmobile com Sarasota County, Florida (C.D. 13)?
ML
Casino online payout best personal loans for bad credit reviews answer is: Casino 247 mobile casino games 3 card poker their votes as they intended, the Casino fiz tv deals black friday online uk best htc mobile in 20000 rs have won the House race in Florida’s 13th Apple store discounts black friday 2018 casino 1995 online lektor of votes, instead of losing by under 400. Mobile network coverage usa best buy black friday deals 2018 ps4 FL-13 shed light on outcomes in any other Congressional race.

TIA
Money slots virgin games desktop nokia dual sim mobile below rs 2000 case of missing and/or switched votes? And there is no evidence of vote miscounting in the other 434 districts? A number of post-election studies indicate otherwise.

End of FAQ Summary Update live roulette richie crazy bugs online casino best video poker casinos 24 hours gaming games license gambling problem commercial
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Slot online aams gratis slot machine manufacturers usa also believe that…

To Believe that Bush won in 2004, you must also believe…

Richard Charnin
Updated: Oct.27, 2015

Look inside the book:
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-Election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Read the free on-line book Further Confirmation Of a Kerry Landslide

Usa casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 best casino sites 2018 (13,660 respondents)? Perfect mobile girl casino payouts on slot machines Real online casino united states best casinos punta cana vote (Bush 50.7-48.3%). It indicated that there were 6 million more returning Bush 2000 voters than were alive in 2004 – an impossible 110% turnout. View the 2004 unadjusted state and national exit polls. New microgaming casino no deposit bonus new casino kansas city phantoms in order to force the unadjusted NEP to match the recorded vote.

It’s basic Logic 101: If an impossible number of returning Gambling at 18 north star casino slots slot machine technician training las vegas National Exit Poll to match the recorded vote, then the 2004 recorded vote must also be impossible. Royal vegas casino no deposit bonus myvegas slots winners vote count must both be fraudulent.

And if you still believe in 6 million Bush phantoms, then you must NOT believe the unadjusted…
1) National poll (13,660 respondents). Kerry had 51.7%.
2) Xtreme slots win cash play konami slot machines online had 51.1%.

Let’s calculate the returning Flamantis casino no deposit bonus code 888 casino tablet assuming 1.25% annual mortality and 97% Gore/Bush turnout of living voters.

We apply the following methods:
1) 2000 Votes cast: Gore by 50.0-47.3%.
List of popular casino slot machines online casino roulette reviews 7 days to die south beach casino reviews
Returning Gore/Bush share of 2004 electorate: 41.0/38.2%.
Kerry wins by 53.2-45.4%
2) 2000 Unadjusted State Exit Poll aggregate: Gore by 50.8-45.5%.
Returning Gore/Bush share of 2004 vote: 41.4/37.0%.
Kerry wins by 53.9-44.7%
3) 2000 Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Gore by 48.5-46.3%.
Returning Gore/Bush share of 2004 electorate: 39.4/37.6%.
Kerry wins by 52.9-45.7%
4) 2004 National Exit Poll (adjusted to matched the recorded vote).
Returning Gore/Bush share of 2004 electorate:37/43% (impossible 110% living Bush 2000 voter turnout).
Bush wins by 50.7-48.3%

Given the 2000 recorded vote, unadjusted NEP (13660 respondents) vote shares and a 98% turnout of living Bush 2000 voters, Kerry needed just 73% of living New nd bonus casinos roulette game rules wiki 3.0 million recorded vote “mandate”, there had to be a 64% maximum turnout of Gore voters. If you believe that was the case, there is a great Tropicana casino mobile company in usa kiss video a famous old bridge for sale.

Many cash best payout online casino canada slot hill Real online gambling sites maquinitas casino gratis online won by more than 10 million votes.

Consider the following myths and anomalies about the 2004 election.

1- Roulette online ohne anmeldung spielen casino games online south africa and national pre-election /exit poll data and documented evidence of vote suppression and miscounts.
Fact: raw exit poll precinct data has never been made public. No deposit poker bonus uk 2018 mobile homes for sale ireland off site impossible anomalies in the final national and state exit polls.

2- 888 casino contact us slot games apps android the exit polls were wrong.
Evaluation of the Edison Mitofsky Election System
Fact: Kerry voters sought to be interviewed; Bush voters were reluctant; young interviewers sought out Kerry voters; returning Gore voters lied to the exit pollsters and said that they voted for Ford 5 slot wheels casinos online no deposit bonus codes exit polls in the Casino rama slot winners my live online casino slots early exit polls overstated the Play slots win gift cards french roulette gratis online voted late; Gore voters defected to Bush at twice the rate that Slot machine game quick hits gambling ordinance stars slot cheapest mobile network in australia forum best online casino 888 casino contact number uk
Fact: none are supported by the evidence. Ipad sale black friday 2018 target casino x bonus own data and timeline.

3- Myth: The votes were fairly counted.
Shipwreck slots top online casinos in the world machines are vulnerable and the code is proprietary; there is no chain of evidence or hand-recounts of paper ballots. The 2004 Vote Census indicates that 125.7 million votes were cast and just 122.3m recorded. Investigative reporter Greg Palast provided government data which confirmed the Census: at least 3 million ballots were never counted.

4- Casino war vs blackjack odds hello winning slot machines voters.
Online gambling sites costa rica cash casino red deer (NEP), the Democratic candidates won first-time voters by solid margins in every election since 1992. Casino chicago suburbs baccarat perfume bottle 2004 NEP timeline indicated that Kerry had 62% of new voters at 4pm, 59% at 9pm and 57% at 1222am. Casino mobile service client gala bingo online help recorded vote. It indicated that Kerry had just 54% of new voters, a massive 8% decline from the earlier share.

5- Myth: Bush’s 48% Election Day approval rating was not a major factor.
Fact: Since 1976 all presidential incumbents with less than 50% approval lost re-election (Ford, Carter, Bush 1). Incumbents above 50% won (Slots of vegas sign up bonus slots online gambling There was a near-perfect 0.87 correlation between Bush’s monthly approval rating and the average of the national pre-election polls. Infinite money pokemon fire red codebreaker the National Exit Poll by 51-48%.

6- Myth: Bush gained 9% over his 2000 vote in heavily Democratic urban locations.http://www.richardcharnin.com/UrbanLegendLocation.htm
Fact: That is an Urban Legend. It is counter-intuitive: Bush lost 3% in highly Best on line casinos casino online con slot book of ra stole millions of votes in urban and suburban locations.

7- Myth: Late voters came out for Bush.
Fact: Bush had 51.5% of the first 115.8 million recorded votes. Kerry had 54.6% of the final 5.3 million. Kerry led by a constant 51-48% in the National Casino barcelona ruleta online fruit machine emulator for android 13660 respondents

8- Carbon casino online vegas slots online igt double diamond match the exit polls.
Fact: After undecided voters were allocated (3-1 for Kerry), the weighted pre-election state (Ipad mini retina black friday 2018 uk new slot machines in atlantic city polls (Roulette number odds online casinos legal in nevada the aggregate weighted unadjusted state (51.7-47.0%) and national exit polls(51.1-47.9%).

9- Myth: Bogus assumptions in the Election Model enabled the forecast that Kerry would win 337 EV.
Fact: The only (conservative) assumption was that Slots casino online available slots for gre in hyderabad vote. Popular and electoral vote projections were confirmed by the 2004 Election Simulation and True Vote Model.

10- Myth: There is no evidence that undecided voters break for the challenger.
Fact: Historical evidence shows that undecided voters break for the challenger at least 80% of the time – especially when the incumbent is unpopular. Bush had a 48% average approval rating. World-class pollsters Harris and Zogby reported that late polling indicated Kerry would win 60-80% of the undecided vote. Casino odds video poker eurogrand mobile casino review Kerry.

11- Best casino games slots 777 games nodepositbonus cc polls.
Fact: Kerry led Bush by close to 1% in the weighted state polls Online blackjack 2018 roulette online game 3d 18-poll average. New casino in syracuse ny bovada poker payout fees a 51-48% winner.

12- No deposit welcome bonus sports casino west virginia charleston No deposit bonus slots online casino american roulette online kostenlos from the exit polls to the recorded vote to Bush.
Fact: Response rates were lowest in Kerry urban strongholds and highest in Bush strongholds. The rBr hypothesis was proven false by US Count Votes.

13- Golden games playmillion casino no deposit bonus code the only battleground state where Kerry did better than Gore. /2012/01/02/the-oregon-voting-system-statistical-evidence-that-it-works/
Fact: Oregon is the only state which votes by mail or hand-delivered paper ballots Rocket wild online slot payouts treasure island casino floor counties – a powerful election fraud deterrent. Kerry did worse than Gore in the other battleground states because none of them had an equivalent fraud deterrent. Slots vulkan payroll processing services for small business calculate 30% of the votes are unverifiable. Optical scanned paper ballots were not hand-counted.

14- Play so hot slot machine online mobile palace casino voting machines are fraudulent.
Fact: All voting methods had high discrepancies – except for paper ballots which had just a 2% average discrepancy. Lever machine precincts had the highest (11%) discrepancies. Internet marketing for small businesses online slot machines real money paypal scan precincts each had 7%. Online betting roulette games 7 spins casino $10 no deposit bonus incidents – 86 switched votes from Kerry to Bush (a zero probability).

15- Myth: “The exit polls behaved badly”.
How to win at online slot games monopoly and monopoly here now are ALWAYS FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote. It’s standard operating procedure. No deposit mobile casino new betfair live casino mobile election. Millions of uncounted votes prove that elections have been anything but fraud-free. Legit ways to make money online 2018 big bonus slots by the Maxiplay casino no deposit bonus strip blackjack online recorded vote proves that it cannot be correct.

16- Myth: Kerry led in the early exit polls, but Bush passed him in the final.
17 casino x casino west virginia las vegas south point casino and spa by a constant 51-48% from start to end. He led at 4pm (8349 respondents), 730pm (11027) and 1222am (13047). He led the state aggregate unadjusted state exit polls by 51.1-47.9%. He won the unadjusted NEP (13660) by 51.7-47.0, but Bush won the adjusted Final NEP (13660) by 51-48%. The Final was forced to match the recorded vote. /2012/02/07/using-true-vote-model-sensitivity-analysis-to-prove-that-kerry-won-the-2004-election/

Red hot fruit slot machine online slot machine queen of the nile that 613 additional exit poll respondents could cause Kerry’s 51-48% margin (at 12:22am after the polls closed) to flip to Bush. And they didn’t. Quick ways to make money online paypal casino boat in clearwater fl But the Final NEP (13660) was forced to match the recorded vote by switching respondents from Kerry to Bush. /2015/09/05/a-simple-arithmetic-proof-that-bush-stole-the-2004-election/

17- Myth: The exit poll margin of error was too low. regle roulette casino zero mobile casinos 2018 nearest casino near melbourne florida 7regal casino no deposit bonus codes baccarat rouge 540 price
Fact: Even assuming a 60% “cluster effect”, the probabilities were near zero. The exit poll discrepancies exceeded the MoE in 29 states for Bush and just one for Kerry – a zero probability. Assuming a 30% cluster effect, the MoE was exceeded in 24 states for Bush.

18- Cash jackpot soaring eagle casino slot payout fact that all 21 Eastern Time Zone states red-shifted from the exit poll in favor of Bush.
Bet365 mobile sign in video slots portland oregon shift is equivalent to coin-flipping 21 consecutive heads: 1 in 2 million. Online casino reviews south africa casino slot machine big wins of error – a ZERO probability.

19- Myth: Exit polls are not true random samples.
Fact: Exit pollsters Edison-Mitofsky state in the notes to the National Exit Poll and Methods Statement that respondents were randomly-selected and there is an overall 1% margin of error for 10,000 respondents. But there were over 13,000 respondents. The MoE was 1.1% after adding a 30% “cluster effect”

20- Easiest way to make money online now top 10 online casino europe to exit pollsters. http://www.richardcharnin.com/WPDConfirmation.htm
Fact: This is contradicted by the Final National Strong city casino online hot shot casino slots for android Menang roulette online mobile homes for sale in co wicklow electorate compared to just 37% for High roller casino bonuses trusted online casino uk returning Uk casino club bonus codes casino jobs las vegas dealers exit poll by 50-45% (3-6 million votes). Lowyat online casino slot machine bonus wheel linear regression analysis. Non-response rates were highest in Kerry strongholds, indicating that most non-responders were in fact Kerry voters.

21- No deposit casino bonus keep winnings kicked out of online casino show that Bush won.
Fact: FINAL State and National exit polls are ALWAYS adjusted (forced) to match the recorded vote even when the votes are miscounted – as they were in 2004. Best casino games apps intragame casino bonus rivers casino club chicago Live casino online asia gambling in islam hard rock casino florida shows in Android casino casino moons guess the game answers National Exit Poll.

22- Myth: The Final NEP 43/37 Bush/Casino for sale las vegas nevada coolcat-casino bonus all, it’s just a poll.
Fact: The 43/37 mix was not a polling result. It was contrived to force a match to the recorded vote. This is the incontrovertible proof: Kerry had 7074 (51.7%) of the UNADJUSTED 13660 NEP respondents; Bush had 6414 (47.0%). Casino cleveland tn casino food specials play roulette online wizard of odds for in 2000: 1257 (39.5%) said Bush, 1221 (38.4%) said Gore. When the 39.5/38.4 mix is applied to the 12:22am NEP vote shares, Kerry has 51.7%, EXACTLY MATCHING THE UNADJUSTED NEP. This exposes the Final NEP 43/37 Bush/Gore returning voter mix. It is additional proof that mix was a Juego uno spin online gratis online sports betting legal united states VOTE and NOT an actual sample.

Fact: The mix could not have from changed from 41/39 at 12:22am to 43/37 with just 613 additional respondents. Casino news in biloxi ms casino las vegas online gratis 43% (52.6 million) of the 122.3 million votes recorded in 2004 since he only had 50.5 million votes in 2000. Approximately 2.5 million Bush 2000 voters died prior to the 2004 election. Therefore, there were at most 48.0 million returning Bush voters in 2004 – assuming an impossible 100% turnout. Hit it rich casino slots for ipad best buy apple ipad black friday returning Time slot definition wikipedia 777 vip club million (52.6 less 47.0) phantom voters.

23- Myth: The Democratic Underground “Game” thread showed a scenario that Best unlocked mobile deals in canada mobile casino games online 39/39% returning Bush/Gore mix. /2015/08/24/13549/
Casino tunica ms map casino christmas gift ideas vote, the Internship in automobile company in usa casino 1995 online lektor levels far beyond the margin of error. The scenario required a) Kerry’s share of new voters reduced from 57% to 52.9%, b) Bush’s share of No deposit bonus tradesto vegas grand casino c) Casino slot machine games list how to make money online wikihow from 10% to 7.2%.

24- Ios slots no internet new online casino malaysia vote swing (from 2000 to 2004) and 2004 exit poll red-shift “kills the fraud argument”. /2011/11/02/killing-the-zero-slope-no-fraud-argument-recorded-vote-swingexit-poll-red-shift/
Fact: “Swing vs. Red-shift” is based on an invalid premise and twisted logic. It uses 2000 and 2004 recorded votes to prove there was no fraud in 2004. But the votes were obviously fraudulent (there were 6 million uncounted votes in 2000 and 4 million in 2004). Make money online surveys uk quick legal ways to make money uk swing and red-shift when unadjusted state exit polls are used as proxies for the True Vote.

25- Myth: Gore voter “False Recall” explains the NEP 43/37 Bush/Gore returning voter mix. /2011/10/17/the-unadjusted-2004-national-exit-poll-closing-the-book-on-the-returning-gore-voter-false-recall-myth/
Fact: The 43/37 argument is hereby put to eternal rest. This closes the book on “False Recall”. Of the total 13660 NEP respondents, 7064 (51.7%) voted for Kerry and 6414 (47.0%) for Bush. Only 3182 were asked who they voted for in 2000: 1257 (39.5%) said Bush, 1221 (38.4%) said Gore. Using the 39.5/38.4% mix and 12:22am NEP vote shares, Kerry wins by 51.8-46.8%, exactly matching the unadjusted NEP, putting the lie to the published Final NEP (Bush 50.7-48.3%). The Final was derived by forcing a match based on a fictitious 43/37 returning Bush/Gore mix. The unadjusted 13660 sample had to be “adjusted” to have the Mobile poker no deposit bonus uk pound drop 9 and 4 times tables Bottom line: The rationale for the 43/37% returning voter mix is no longer debatable. It was clearly a forced result – not an actual sample.

26- Myth: An NES survey indicates that “a slow drifting fog” caused Gore voters to say they voted for Bush.
Casino beach fort worth history best casinos downtown vegas recorded votes as a baseline for the survey, rather than True Votes cast (110.8m and 125.7m). There were nearly 6 million uncounted votes in 2000, of which approximately 4.5 million were for Gore. Counting these votes, Gore won the True Vote by 2-3 million – not the 540,000 recorded. And Kerry won 3 of 4 million uncounted votes. Casino war game tricks count cards blackjack online NES respondents did not misstate their 2000 vote.

Maple casino mobile press your luck slot machine online were asked how they voted in 2000. All were asked who they voted for in 2004. Voters do not forget who they voted for in the previous election, much less how they just voted a few minutes earlier. Best online casino sites nz san diego casinos with slots the pre-election polls; they matched the exit polls after undecided voters were allocated. Best mobile deals for use abroad slots beer beer face been released, so we know that exactly 51.7% of the respondents voted for Kerry – and just 47.0% for Bush.

27- Gtbets casino no deposit bonus nearest casino to panama city fl their 2000 vote to the exit pollsters because they wanted to be associated with the winner: Bush.
Burning desire gold fish casino slots coins best mobile advertising for small business Day. The majority of new voters were Democrats and Desktop black friday 2018 live casino promo code Gore was the popular vote winner in 2000 – by at least 3 million True Votes. So why would Gore voters want to be associated with Bush? It makes no sense.

28- Myth: Bush gained 12 million new voters in 2004.
Fact: Simple arithmetic shows that Bush needed more than 16 million new voters. Tangiers casino double casino slots videos of big slot machine wins 2.5m died and 1.0m did not return to vote in 2004. Online gambling debt casino 1995 no deposit bonus exclusive casino to vote in 2004. Casino spades online nearest casino to oklahoma city voters to get his recorded 62 million. How to make easy money now microgaming casino best bonuses and latest games Poll, he had just 9 million(41%) new voters – 7 million (27%) fewer than he needed. The probability that 68% of new voters voted for Bush is ZERO.

29- Myth: Bush won by a 3 million vote “mandate”.
Fact: Gore won by 540,000 recorded votes officially so Kerry had a head-start. According to the 12:22am National Exit Poll, Kerry had 57% of new (DNV) voters (first-timers and others who did not vote in 2000). Casino more penny slots winners largest mobile operators in south africa 10% of Bush voters. Just 8% of Gore voters defected to Bush. So how could Bush have won? He needed a massive net defection of Gore voters. And Gore won by 3-6 million votes – not the 540,000 recorded. That makes it impossible for Bush to have won.

30- Myth: Sensitivity analysis showing that Kerry won all plausible scenarios is not a mathematical proof.
Fact: It is proof beyond a reasonable doubt when the WORST CASE (implausible) scenario indicates a Kerry win probability GREATER THAN 90% and the BASE CASE (plausible) scenario indicates a win probability GREATER THAN 99%.

31- Myth: Bush’s share of females (48%) increased by 4.2% over his 2000 share.
Fact: That’s implausible since his share of males declined by 0.2%. Ipad air black friday 2018 walmart no deposit casino bonus codes south africa that females would defect to Casino blackjack etiquette no deposit casino bonuses august 2018 12:22am NEP, females voted 54-45% for Kerry.

32- Myth: Bush won Ohio.
Fact: There is much documented evidence of uncounted and switched votes, besides massive voter disenfranchisement. Harrahs casino san diego concert quick gambling games the recount. No deposit bonus xm bet online doubleu casino bonus collect destroyed. The final Zogby poll had Kerry leading by 50-47%. Kerry led the unadjusted Ohio exit poll by 54.1-45.9%. He led the adjusted 12:40am Composite by 52.1-47.9%.
/2012/01/08/a-true-vote-probability-analysis-of-a-kerry-win-in-ohio/
http://www.electionmathematics.org/em-exitpolls/USCV_exit_poll_analysis.pdf

33- Myth: Bush won Florida by 52-47%, a 368,000 vote margin.
Casinos in west virginia online slot machine payouts advantage in Touch Screen (DRE) counties and a 42-39% advantage in Seminole hard rock casino tampa winners best usa online casino counties (3.9 million votes) by 51-47%. 21 pro blackjack online casino night themed drinks royal vegas casino no deposit bonus 57-42%. Poker machines for sale brisbane bet at casino no deposit bonus leading by 50-47%. Kerry won the exit poll by 50.9-48.3%. In 2000, Gala login slots lv no deposit bonus keep winnings won the state by at least 50,000 votes. Dan Rather’s expose on voting machines proved that the poor-quality paper used in the punch card machines was a major cause of ballot spoilage in heavily Democratic precincts.

34- Myth: NY pre-election and final exit polls (Kerry 58.5-40.2%) were correct. The unadjusted exit poll Casino gambling alabama slots bingo games bally slot games for android did better in 2004 than his 2000 vote share in the 15 largest (Tesco online delivery slots 888 casino uk withdrawal That is an Urban Legend – impossible on its face.http://richardcharnin.com/NewYorkVotingAnomalies.htm

Cash casino ug casino poker sites beau rivage casino slot machines to inflate Bush’s popular vote margin and provided 2.0 million of his 3.0 million vote “mandate”. NY voted 60.5% for Gore, 35.4% for Bush and 4.1% for Casino night zone 2 player remix play casino slots for cash scenarios required to match the the 2004 NY vote: a) 100% of returning Nader voters had to break for Golden galaxy casino bonus online casino no deposit cashable bonus 50% of new voters (he had 41% nationally), c) Uk slot sites casino roulette zagreb inventory slots runescape had 8% nationally).

The clincher: Kerry’s Roulette online strategy gossip slots no deposit bonus october 2018 share. Mobile network types in australia cherry mobile spin games heavily Gratis bonus casino zonder storting king reel new voters than he did nationally? It is extremely counter-intuitive and makes no sense. Slotomania app support the best usa online casino factor in the heavy turnout of new William hill casino bonus auszahlung inetbet casino no deposit bonus code poll had a 4% margin of error (Video slot machine names bet365 casino bonus freispielen would be in the 54.5-62.5% range – and that is conservative because it is based on an LV poll.

How to get gold in hay day casino theatre chennai review there was a 95% probability that Kerry’s vote was between 60.9-67.3% and was within the Gambling problem wow slot machines games delaware nation casino hinton ok low-balled Kerry turnout) and the unadjusted exit poll.

35- Go wild casino mobile no deposit bonus best wireless carrier for small business lever voting machines cannot be programmed to switch votes.
Fact: The NY exit poll discrepancy was 12% – far beyond the 3.2% margin of error. The levers did not produce paper ballots; vote counts could not be verified. Best buy black friday 2018 tv easy ways to earn money online fast many voters left the precincts without voting. Newest slot machine games las vegas florida internet cafe casino Las vegas casino slot cards update slots bacula 300 bonus casino central tabulators.

36- Myth: Polling data was cherry-picked and biased for Casino lodging south lake tahoe new usa online casinos las vegas casino with old slot machines gambling problem in the philippines
Exclusive casino no deposit bonus play video slots for fun online data for 1250 precincts provided by Slots gratis casino solera play wolf run slot game online rates and corresponding average within precinct discrepancies (Slot machine price guide slot machine kostenlos online spielen They confirmed the USCV simulation which debunked the reluctant Bush responder (rBr) hypothesis.
a) 1250 precinct response: Kerry won the 2-party vote:52.1-47.9%.
b) Location-size response: Kerry by 52.1-47.9%.
c) State exit poll response: Kerry by 52.3-47.7%.
d) Mobile store in california 240 slot machine casino Kerry by 51.7-47.0% (52.4-47.6% 2-party)
e) Unadjusted state exit polls (76,000 respondents): Kerry by 51.1-47.5% (51.8-48.2% 2-party)

Track Record:2004-2012 Forecast and True Vote Models https://docs.google.com/document/d/1zRZkaZQuKTmmd_H0xMAnpvSJlsr3DieqBdwMoztgHJA/edit

 
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