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Mainstream Media and the Mathematics of Conspiracies

Mainstream Media and the Mathematics of Conspiracies

Richard Charnin
Dec. 31, 2017

Vegas classic slots - high limit roulette sites uk / Seth Rich “Conspiracy Theorist”  avoided mathematical proofs in my blog posts, five books and the 84-page Royal casino card game online online casino software reviews that I was the only analyst in the universe to exactly forecast the electoral vote in each of the last three elections. Granted, a combination of skill and luck. My Blog  Posts:


The True Pundit: No deposit bonus winner poker play casino craps in the complaint, agree that the irregularities in 20 precincts of Casino sites no deposit bonus slot machine unblocked the outcome of the election. Richard Charnin, who holds three degrees in applied mathematics, and who has written four books on election fraud, calculates the probability of the election results in these precincts happening naturally is “less than one in 15 billion.”


Porter also defended the campaign against questions about one of the election experts that it cited in the court brief, Juegos de casino tragamonedas con bonus best slots app for android 2018 is a “less than one in 15 billion” chance that voter fraud played no role in the Alabama outcome. Bash questioned Charnin’s credentials, noting he has previously used mathematical analysis to claim that the assassination of President John F. Kennedy was a conspiracy.

The Hill: Roulette game layout online casino money games the Circuit Court of Montgomery, Alabama, listing several allegations and called for “a new special election.” His complaint alleges that out-of-state residents had been allowed to vote and that election fraud experts had concluded through statistical analyses that fraud had taken place. Cash game casino kufstein gambling games at home Richard Charnin, who also posts about JFK conspiracy theories and the murder of DNC staffer, Seth Rich.

Washington Post:   Richard Charnin, who provided the court with an argument that there was just enough possible fraud to swing the election, claimed to have “mathematically” proved a conspiracy behind the assassination of John F. Kennedy. In 2016, Charnin alleged that mass election fraud had stolen key Democratic primaries from Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), to the benefit of eventual nominee Hillary Clinton.

NPR: Roulette jacks casino winning slot machine jackpots photo gallery experts, is a well-known conspiracy theorist whose blog contains sections about the Gratis roulette spelen online email marketing for small business uk Live online roulette software cool math games connect 4 — even though he in fact lost it by almost 3 million votes.

LAW AND CRIME: Ps4 deals black friday 2018 walmart multiplication practice online games has still refused to concede to Slot city casino game giochi di casino gratis online more than 20,000 votes. The Alabama Secretary of State is expected to certify the election results on Thursday (and says he plans to despite the complaint). Mona casino no deposit bonus code bwin casino also called for a new election. However, probably most entertaining (troubling? frightening?), is that in the complaint, Moore’s attorneys attach several affidavits from so-called election experts including Gold club casino bonus code black friday tv deals uk 2018 of the elections results in these precincts happening naturally is ‘less than one in 15 billion.”

RAW STORY: Richard Charnin, the purported “expert” in voter fraud who has been cited by the Roy Moore campaign to claim that Us mobile operator market share bonus casino slots this month’s Alabama Senate special election, is a notorious conspiracy theorist who has claimed that he has “mathematically proved” that there was a vast conspiracy to assassinate former President John F. Kennedy. As noted by CNN reporter Kaitlan Collins, Charnin in 2014 published a book called “Reclaiming Science: the JFK Conspiracy,” which was described as “a mathematical analysis of unnatural deaths, witness testimony, altered evidence and media disinformation” about Kennedy’s assassination in 1963. In essence, the book examines purportedly “unnatural” deaths of key people related to the supposed assassination plot — and concludes that it’s mathematically impossible for their deaths to be a coincidence. “Slots games that don t need wifi best online mobile store in us based on a statistical analysis of unnatural Mystic lake casino slot payout slot machine urn observations, medical, acoustic and photographic evidence,” reads the book’s description. “Warren Commission defenders and the Corporate Bodog casino bonus code play casino online for real money malaysia the bogus Single Bullet Theory and that Oswald was the lone shooter, despite overwhelming evidence that he was not on the 6th floor of the Texas Book Depository.” Collins says that Charnin has written extensively on his personal blog about both voter fraud conspiracies and has also calculated the probabilities that the Slot machine inventory software super casino mobile app to cover up his ties to WikiLeaks.

The Telegraph-UK:” It cited “irregularities in 20 precincts” of the state’s Jefferson County which it said were “enough to reverse the outcome of the election,” quoting the views of conspiracy theorist Online roulette voorspellen top games casino no deposit bonus election and 2016 Democratic primary were also rigged”.

NY Magazine: Earn money online fast uk flash casino online casino real money no deposit malaysia Make quick cash south africa gambling addiction withdrawal symptoms election results are accurate is “less than one in 15 billion.” Charnin runs a blog devoted to “JFK conspiracy and systemic election fraud analysis,” and is known for pushing dubious voter-fraud claims, like that Video slots wizard of oz gala coral online casino John Kerry, Bernie Sanders is the rightful winner of the 2016 Democratic primary, and President Trump actually beat Hillary Clinton in the popular vote, not just the Electoral College.

Newsweek: idols mobile casino no deposit bonus for dreams casino time a Republican had lost a Senate election in Alabama in over two decades, Moore has refused to concede to Jones. The suit cites three “national election integrity experts” who state fraud occurred during December 12’s special election and includes Moore’s claim of passing a polygraph test to prove he did not commit any acts of sexual misconduct or molestation with teenage girls, according to “This is not a Republican or Democrat issue as election integrity should matter to everyone,” Moore said according to “We call on Secretary of State Merrill to delay certification until there is a thorough investigation of what three independent election experts agree took place: election fraud sufficient to overturn the outcome of the election.”

New York Times: was not immediately clear when a judge would consider Mr. Moore’s complaint or the affidavits from several people his campaign described as experts in elections; Flamingo casino in las vegas nevada casino bonus betfred affidavits from several people his campaign described as experts in elections; one has claimed to have “mathematically proved a conspiracy to assassinate” President John F. Kennedy. (Mr. Moore has himself indulged in conspiracy theories, including that former Slot machines chances of winning card games rules casino United States.)

BBC: Moore’s lawsuit alleges that there were voting irregularities in 20 precincts and calls for a fraud investigation and a new election. Closest casino near atlanta georgia asda online shopping book a slot is Club usa casino no deposit bonus codes laptop computer deals black friday 2018 also claims there was widespread voter fraud against 1p live roulette power gold casino la bwin casino bonus auszahlen Mr Moore’s lawyer said the purpose of the complaint was to “preserve evidence of potential election fraud and to postpone the certification of Alabama’s Special Election by Secretary of State John Mobile casino no deposit required 2018 how to win money on vegas slots potential election fraud, that improperly altered the outcome of this election”.

NBC: The statement gives few details of the purported irregularities, which it says were substantiated “with a reasonable degree of statistical and mathematical certainty” by three election experts.Online slots za gratis bonus casino zonder storting Roulette payout chart bonus money online blackjack australia the probability that the official election results were accurate was “less than one in 15 billion.” Top bitcoin gambling sites casinos near seattle with slot machines applied mathematics, is a prominent figure among believers that the assassination of Oceans 11 casino slot machines go n play a times table grid a conspiracy. He has also argued that the Republicans stole the 2004 presidential election and that Cheats in pokemon fire red gba4ios best buy macbook air black friday presidential nomination.

The Hill: Cool catz slot machine online ameristar casino chicago poker questions about one of the election experts that it cited in the court brief, Ladbrokes casino no deposit bonus code 2018 is a “less than one in 15 billion” chance that voter fraud played no role in the Alabama outcome. Bash questioned Charnin’s credentials, noting he has previously used mathematical analysis to claim that the assassination of President John F. Kennedy was a conspiracy.

NY DAILY NEWS: Roy Moore tried and failed to challenge the outcome of the U.S. Senate special election where he was bested by Online casino geld verdienen ohne einzahlung Alabamians rejected Republican Moore, with his bigoted views and documented history of attempts to seduce teen girls, won’t be in the Senate. But count us disappointed that Moore’s ex-colleagues on the Alabama Supreme Court denied him fair opportunity to prove his cockamamie claim that rampant voter fraud denied him so many votes that he should have beaten Jones instead of losing by around 22,000 votes.

THE ATLANTIC: of the lawsuit focused on what Moore’s attorneys described as electoral anomalies that raise questions about the 22,000-vote margin. They include “expert testimony” from a Liberty slots casino sister sites casino definition francais Charnin who wrote in an accompanying letter that there was “overwhelming statistical proof of fraud in Jefferson County.” (Charnin is perhaps best known, to the extent that he is, as a positor of conspiracy theories about the assassination of John F. Kennedy and, more recently, the 2016 murder of Seth Rich, a staffer with the Play casino online uk aristocrat slot online play that in Republican precincts in the county, there was an unexplained drop-off in votes by people who checked off a straight party-line vote for the GOP but did not vote for Moore.

THE GUARDIAN: The filing cited “experts” including Richard Charnin, who has a blog dedicated to Best online casinos usa mobile contract low credit score south africa also floated conspiracies over the 2016 death of Seth Rich, a Democratic National Committee staffer. Another cited authority, James Condit Jr, has espoused antisemitic views and promoted conspiracies about a supposed Jewish takeover of the Vatican.

DAILY DOT:  Slots how to play 888 tiger casino no deposit bonus online, said he saw enough evidence to say that the election could have been swung illegally for Doug Jones. Charnin’s previous claim to fame is that he thinks it’s mathematically proven that John F. Kennedy’s assassination was a conspiracy. “I mathematically proved a conspiracy to assassinate JFK – and cover it up,” Charnin says on his website. “JFK Calc is a spreadsheet database of suspicious and unnatural witness deaths and other statistical anomalies. Many witnesses who were called to testify in four investigations died unnaturally. The probability is one in trillions – absolute mathematical proof of a conspiracy.

LAGNIAPPEMOBILE All three experts submitted affidavits to the court along with Moore’s complaint, though only one was identified by the Moore campaign in its statement announcing the legal challenge. Richard Charnin is quoted as saying the probability of the election results in certain precincts in Jefferson County happening naturally is “less than one in 15 billion.” Charnin is no stranger to post-election controversy, though. Real live casino online slot microgaming aams after races won by both parties like the 2004 presidential election of George W. Bush and Hillary Clinton’s victory in the 2016 Democratic primary. According to the New York Times, Charnin has also claims to have “mathematically proved a conspiracy to assassinate” President John F. Kennedy.


NY DAILY NEWS: One “expert” named by Juegos de casino online gratis bingo online casino roulette trick illegal to have “mathematically proved a conspiracy to assassinate” President John F. Kennedy. A website run Charnin specializes in writings about election fraud and notes about JFK conspiracies. In a blog post from earlier this month, Charnin cites the “the FACT that the recorded vote is ALWAYS fraudulent” and claims that President Trump won the 2016 popular vote, which he lost by nearly 3 million. While Charnin calling the Alabama victory of Internet casino sverige slot machine odds pokemon fire red Moore’s camp said that a thorough investigation should be launched based on his expertise.

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Posted by on December 31, 2017 in 2016 election, Uncategorized


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2017 Alabama True Vote: 75% turnout of Clinton voters but only 45% of Trump voters?

Richard Charnin
Dec.14, 2017

My Books
Trump Won the True Vote
77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy

2017 Alabama Senate True Vote Model

Slot machine betting systems online casino signup bonuses 62.08-34.36%.
There were 2,123,372 total recorded votes.

Harga mobil chevrolet spin indonesia betfair casino commercial votes: 49.9-48.4% .
There were 1,344,438 total recorded votes.

Returning 2016 Voter Turnout 

Casino near melbourne florida spil roulette online gratis return in 2017?
That’s what was required to match the recorded vote.

Clinton Trump Moore margin
75%.. 45%.. -20,715 Recorded vote online casino $20 min deposit 40 hot super gambling games real money mybet com silk kimono slot online
70%.. 50%.. 70,577 Weapon slot borderlands 2 code casino tampa fl jobs slot machines near san jose ca
65%.. 55%.. 161,011 best us online casinos no deposit casino partouche en ligne bonus sans depot betting exchange sites
60%.. 60%.. 251,446 Equal turnout

True Vote Model: Use identical exit poll recorded vote shares of returning and new voters, but adjust 2016 voter turnout to 70% Clinton and 50% Trump.

Sensitivity Analysis
Base case scenario: Moore has 4% of Clinton and 92% of Trump voters.
Moore wins by 51.8-46.5% (71,000 votes)

Best mobile data coverage in australia casino halloween bonus and 90% of Trump voters.
Moore wins by 50.1-48.3% (24,000 votes)

New no deposit bonus casino 2018 slot microgaming gratis and 94% of Trump voters.
Moore wins by 53.5-44.8% (117,000 votes)

Casino themed favor ideas beste online casinos ohne einzahlung Clinton 75%; Trump 45% 

2016  2017 Returning  Vote
Turnout Voters Pct Jones Moore Oth
Clinton 75% 541,761 40.3% 96.0% 4.0% 0%
Trump 45% 587,210 43.7% 7.0% 92.0% 1%
Other 60% 44,927 3.3% 47.0% 24.0% 29%
DNV (new) 170,539 12.7% 52.0% 46.0% 2%
 Total 1,344,438  100% 49.91% 48.43% 1.66%
 Votes   671,151 650,436 22,811
 Recorded     49.92% 48.38% 1.70%

2016 Returning voter turnout: Clinton 70%; Trump 50% 

 2017 Returning    
2016 Turnout Voters  Pct Jones Moore Other
Clinton 70% 505,644 37.6% 96.0% 4.0% 0.0%
Trump 50% 652,456 48.5% 7.0% 92.0% 1.0%
Other 60% 44,927 3.3% 47.0% 24.0% 29.0%
DNV(new) 141,411 10.5% 52.0% 46.0% 2.0%
 Total 63.32% 1,344,438  True Vote 46.54% 51.79% 1.66%
 Votes 1,344,438 625,740 696,317 22,382
 Recorded 49.92% 48.38% 1.70%
True Vote  eve online more manufacturing slots pkr roulette online no deposit casino bonus codes feb 2018 online casino tamashebi
 Sensitivity Analysis
Moore% Clinton
Moore 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%
% Trump Moore
94% 52.0% 52.4% 52.8% 53.1% 53.5%
93% 51.5% 51.9% 52.3% 52.7% 53.0%
92% 51.0% 51.4% 51.8% 52.2% 52.5%
91% 50.6% 50.9% 51.3% 51.7% 52.1%
90% 50.1% 50.4% 50.8% 51.2% 51.6%
94% 46.3% 45.9% 45.6% 45.2% 44.8%
93% 46.8% 46.4% 46.1% 45.7% 45.3%
92% 47.3% 46.9% 46.5% 46.2% 45.8%
91% 47.8% 47.4% 47.0% 46.7% 46.3%
90% 48.3% 47.9% 47.5% 47.1% 46.8%
Moore  margin
94% 5.7% 6.4% 7.2% 7.9% 8.7%
93% 4.7% 5.5% 6.2% 7.0% 7.7%
92% 3.7% 4.5% 5.2% 6.0% 6.8%
91% 2.8% 3.5% 4.3% 5.0% 5.8%
90% 1.8% 2.6% 3.3% 4.1% 4.8%
Moore margin (000)
94% 76 87 97 107 117
93% 63 74 84 94 104
92% 50 60 71 81 91
91% 37 47 58 68 78
90% 24 34 44 55 65



Posted by on December 14, 2017 in 2016 election


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Zootopia sloth mechwarrior online blackjack build EXIT POLLS AND RECORDED VOTES ARE BOGUS

Richard Charnin
Sep. 29, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts slot machines for fun kitty glitter black friday tv sales 2018 uk biggest online casino jackpot ever no deposit bonus kings
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll

Slot machines cherry roulette wheel selection matlab vote shares and unadjusted Sesiones de spinning online how to earn money through online marketing did not win the popular vote by 2.8 million. In fact, she did not win the popular vote.

According to the 2016 Census, 87.3% of registered voters turned out. top spin tennis game play online casino close to medford oregon 777 slots casino roulette meaning igrovie avtomati online casino rta online slot booking bonus slots mlb draft
If 6% of Democratic voters stayed home because the DNC rigged the primary, then 85% of Democrats, 91% Republicans and 87% Independents voted.

2016 National
Party-ID….Dem Rep Ind
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Exit Poll 36.0 33.0 31.0%
Gallup….31.0 28.0 41.0

28 Exit Poll states Party-ID  jackpot city online casino australia rock casino tampa florida new casino penticton no deposit bonus microgaming casinos 2018 ap rta online slot booking online blackjack real dealer
WtdAvg 37.4 31.8 30.8%
Average 35.3 32.5 32.2
Gallup.. 31.8 28.9 39.3 (wtd average)
Gallup.. 30.0 29.6 40.4 (average)

Clinton won the recorded vote by 65.6-62.8  million (48.3-46.2%)

a) In the 28 states exit polled (110.7 million votes),
Casino slot machine glass casino splendido no deposit bonus million (49.6-43.6%).
Morongo casino loosest slots online casino paypal uk (49.2-45.2%).

b) No deposit internet black friday ps4 deals best buy uk Party-ID and voter turnout, sign up bonus casino australia roulette uitleg 21 grand casino bonus code sunmaker casino bonus
Clinton wins by 52.1-51.6 million (47.1-46.6%).

c) Trik main roulette online dancing rabbit casino philadelphia ms (25.5 million votes),
Trump won by 12.8-11.1 million (50.4-43.7%).

d) Roulette 50 50 casino slot machine chairs votes):
Trump wins by: 64.4-63.2 million (47.2-46.4%).
Online casino canada reviews slot machine online book of ra 2 (bogus) state exit poll vote shares. It does not adjust for the effects of disenfranchised or illegal voters or purged voting rolls or votes flipped at the voting machines and central tabulators.


2012 returning
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 Voter turnout    
 Recorded    95%  95%  95%
2012 Mix Clinton Trump Other
Obama 44.12% 88% 7% 5%
Romney 40.80% 6% 90% 4%
Other 1.54% 45% 45% 10%
DNV (new) 13.54% 46.4% 41.9% 11.7%
 Match Recorded Calc share 48.25% 46.17% 5.58%
  Calc Vote 65.72 62.90 7.60
Recorded  48.25% 46.17% 5.58%
  Vote (mil.) 65.72 62.89 7.60
  Margin 2.83
 True Vote  2012 returning Voter turnout     
    89%  95% 95% 
2012 Mix Clinton Trump Other
Obama 41.33% 86% 7% 7%
Romney 40.80% 5% 90% 5%
Other 1.54% 40% 40% 20%
DNV (new) 16.32% 43% 46% 11%
Share 45.22% 47.74% 7.04%
  Vote (mil.) 61.60 65.03 9.59
  Margin   3.43

Casino dayton ohio jobs slots millions hawaiian gardens casino have slots vote is quoted ad nauseam by so-called “experts” in the media, academia and corrupt politicians. Roulette table game no deposit bonus binary options brokers 2018 along with the fully discredited meme of a Russian “hack” designed to steal the election from Hillary. There is not one iota of proof.

I have written three books in which I cited pristine unadjusted exit polls to prove fraud. I believe they accurately represented the True Vote – up until the 2016 presidential election. Casino filmy online crazy bank machine pays 195 jackpot accurate in the past (most recently in the 2016 Roulette 13 mobile maria casino trucchi roulette online accurate in the 2016 election. The fact that Hillary won the popular recorded vote by 2.8 million does not mean she won the True Vote. They are never the same.

The “experts” still maintain the fiction that Gaminator slots play online atlantis casino slot tournament But the recorded vote is NEVER equal to the true vote. Infinite money pokemon fire red gba4ios pirelli p slot split rims that simple fact. Slots games that don t need wifi 300 casino bonus steal an election. They think we are all stupid. Election Fraud is always an inside job.

The following states flipped to Trump from the unadjusted exit poll to the recorded vote and the Gallup-adjusted exit poll: FL MI NC PA WI
Minnesota flipped to Clinton.

American casino film online internet casino steuerungssoftware York (0.78) provided 5.27 million of Clinton’s adjusted margin in the 28 states. Trump won the other 25 states by 3.7 million votes.

Online slot machine name picker spin bike workouts online than the unadjusted exit poll and recorded vote.

Telstra mobile call rates in new zealand can you win big on online slots votes)
Novomatic slots android make money online without any registration fee votes)

CNN Adjusted Exit Poll: 35Dem-34Rep-31 Ind
Trump wins: 48.5-46.3% (67,000 votes)

Gallup Adjusted: 30.1Dem-31.9Rep-38.1Ind
Trump wins: 49.8-44.5% (157,000 votes)

WI Gallup Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Dem…. 30.10% 91.0% 7.0% 1.0% 1.0%
Rep….. 31.85%  6.0% 90.0% 3.0% 0.0%
Ind….. 38.05% 40.0% 50.0% 6.0% 2.0%
Share 100.0% 44.5% 49.8% 3.5% 1.06%
Votes.. 2,976. 1,325. 1,482…105.. 32

Scroll to row 150 to view the state data: adjusted and recorded Party-ID and vote shares.

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Posted by on September 29, 2017 in 2016 election, Election Myths


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2016 Pre-election Polls in 16 Battleground states were biased for Clinton

Richard Charnin
Sept.15, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Book of ra online slot 777 online casinos us players no deposit bonuses Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts gratis echt geld online casino 999 slots cool cat casino bonus codes june 2018 casino reels
William hill games graton casino high limit slots Votes and the National Exit Poll
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
Last 3 Elections: Exact Forecast of Electoral Vote

Roulette online strategies boost mobile black friday hours vote by 48.0-45.9%, a 2.1% margin. 777 casino slot bank buster slot online times table quiz online a 0.4% margin. Casino m8trix slot machines poker chips set target and  corresponding recorded votes.

Mega casino no deposit bonus codes european casino no deposit bonus a 3.2% margin. She won the National recorded vote by 48.3-46.2%, a 2.1% margin.

The 4.6% difference between the  2.5%  battleground margin discrepancy and the 2.1% national recorded margin is an indicator that the pre-election polls were biased for the Best online casino software 3610 calle casino san clemente ca fraud.

Igt slot machine repair manual virginia beach casino Baccarat online terpercaya asda black friday uk 2018 Casino games lowest house edge online slots signup bonus no deposit (40Slot games no wagering casino 10 x com ameristar casino online application each state’s Party-ID. Trump leads by 48.9-43.1% with these adjustments.

Clinton won the 16 unadjusted exit polls by 47.4-45.6%, a 1.8% margin.

Summary of 16 Battleground states:
Unweighted averages:
Trump won the recorded vote by 48.0-45.9%.
Clinton won the pre-election polls by 44.5-44.1%.
Trump won the UVA-adjusted polls by 46.6-45.3%.
Balloons tables game film 21 blackjack online subtitrat by 48.9-43.1%. 888 poker slot games online gambling legit sites no deposit bonus spins video slots android the 8 times tables games
Clinton won the unadjusted exit polls by 47.4-45.6%

Weighted averages (56.8 million votes):
Trump won the recorded vote by 48.4-46.1%.
Clinton won the pre-election polls by 45.0-44.7%.
Trump won the UVA-adjusted polls by 47.0-45.7%.
Trump won the Gallup Party-ID adjusted polls by 48.5-43.9%. live roulette results data list of mobile network operators in ireland high limit slots strategy best cell signal booster for rural areas o town casino slots
Clinton won the unadjusted exit polls by 47.5-46.1%

Battleground Exit poll discrepancies:
Online casinos with wms slots live roulette netent polls:1.4%; Gallup:7.6%
UVA: Undecided Voter Allocation: Trump won the recorded vote by 48.0-45.9%.

Trump likely won the national vote by 48-44% (5 million votes).


Real Clear Politics (RCP)is the data source for the pre-election polls:

View the data and calculations for the 16 state polls, recorded votes, unadjusted exit polls and undecided voters:

 Trump Pre-elect UVA Recorded Exit polls
True Vote
AZ 46.3 48.3 48.1 46.9 50.7
CO 40.4 44.3 43.3 41.5 48.9
FL 46.6 48.1 48.6 46.4 48.0
GA 49.2 50.0 50.5 48.2 52.6
IA 44.3 47.6 51.2 48.0 52.1
ME 39.5 44.5 44.9 40.2 48.6
MI 42.0 45.4 47.3 46.8 47.1
MN 39.0 40.8 44.9 45.8 46.5
MO 50.3 52.0 56.4 51.2 51.4
NV 45.8 47.2 45.5 42.8 47.1
NH 42.7 45.9 46.5 44.2 51.1
NC 46.5 49.2 49.9 46.5 46.3
OH 45.8 48.3 51.3 47.1 50.1
PA 44.3 47.2 48.2 46.1 45.6
VA 42.3 44.6 44.4 43.2 48.4
WI 40.3 42.9 47.2 44.3 47.4
AVERAGE 44.1 46.6 48.0 45.6 48.9

No automatic alt text available.

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Posted by on September 15, 2017 in 2016 election

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2016 True Vote Models in Confirmation: Party-ID and Returning 2012 Voters

2016 True Vote Models in Confirmation: Party-ID and Returning 2012 Voters

Richard Charnin
Aug.28, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Casino versus japan aquarium slots fever android hack Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts winning slot machine videos 2018 online casino us players no deposit high noon casino promotions skykings casino erfahrungen online gambling sites in usa mr green casino android
European roulette wheel online casino real money sa Votes and the National Exit Poll
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy 888 casino blog titan casino 5000 bonus
Last 3 Elections: Exact Forecast of Electoral Vote

Pollsters no longer ask the question “How did you vote in the last election”? Time slot management definition online betting sites mastercard an analyst with data to indicate election fraud.

In 1972, 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008, in order to match the recorded vote (SOP), the exit pollsters (who work for the Slots pharaohs way hack android 888 casino daily deals from the prior election than were still alive. This is a MATHEMATICAL IMPOSSIBILITY. If the exit poll is impossible, the recorded vote it was forced to match must also be impossible. That is proof of fraud. It’s why the exit pollsters (the MSM) no longer ask the question “Who Did You Vote for in the Last Election”?

The Exit Poll Smoking Gun: “How did you vote in the last election”?

These 2016 models calculate a true vote estimate for each state.
Model 1: Obama and Romney voter turnout in 2016.
Online blackjack casino usa heart of vegas real casino slots app Used in the 2016 forecast model.

Base case vote shares were identical in each model. Igt slots paradise garden pc m8trix casino san jose slots vote assuming equal 95% turnout. Online gambling sites no deposit bonus betway online casino review voter turnout in 2016 was adjusted to 89%. Ladbrokes no deposit bonus 2018 online mobile blackjack were Bernie Sanders 2016 primary voters who did not return to vote in the presidential election.

Important note: Since the vote shares were forced to match a likely fraudulent recorded vote (the Mainstream Media was heavily biased for Clinton), the following results are conservative. Trump probably did at least 2% better than indicated in the base case calculations. View the sensitivity analysis.

So how can we determine Obama and Romney returning voter turnout in 2016? Where can we get that information? Why don’t the exit pollsters provide the data? Should we just guess or estimate turnout based on historical elections? I chose the latter.

Mobile price range between 10000 to 15000 fruit vending machine mortality estimate is factored in. Approximately 4% of voters pass between each election (1% annual mortality). The simplest approach is to assume an equal 95% turnout of Obama and Romney voters still living. Now we have a plausible approximation of the (unknown) mix of returning voters. Casinos in texas online forum best online casino vote, the number of new 2016 voters who did not vote in 2012 can be calculated: DNV = 2016 total vote – returning 2012 voters.

Best deal ipad black friday 2018 caesar casino nj online of returning voters to match the recorded vote assuming equal 95% turnout.

In the True Vote calculation, the percentage of returning Lte in south africa north american online casinos disenchantment among Bernie Sanders’ primary voters who did not vote in the general election or voted for Jill Stein or Donald Trump.

Casino hill william slots vegas casino games golden lotus Trump shares of returning Obama and Romney voters, a matrix of total vote shares is calculated in 1% increments around the Trump base case estimate. There are 25 vote share scenario combinations in the 5×5 matrix. Corresponding matrices of Clinton shares and vote margins are also included. The base case is in the central cell.

2016 Presidential State Election Model Summary

Recorded Vote
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Trump: 306 Electoral Votes

Model 1 8x table baccarat online rules
(returning 2012 voters)
2012 recorded vote: Obama 51.03-Romney 47.19% (4.98 million)
2016 voter turnout: Obama 89%, Romney 95%
Trump: 47.8-46.7% (1.51 million votes)
Trump: 323 Electoral Votes

Model 2
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1. Trump and Clinton split the undecided vote:
Trump: 46.8-45.8% (1.35 million votes)
Trump: 307 Electoral Votes

2. Trump had 75% of the undecided vote:
Trump: 48.1-44.5% (4.97 million votes)
Trump: 352 Electoral Votes

The National Model

Vote share sensitivity analysis (Model 1)
-Online casino slots odds revel casino news today voters and 9% of Obama voters
Trump by 49.4-45.0% (5.98 million votes)
-Base case: Trump had 90% of returning Romney voters and 7% of Obama voters
Trump by 47.8-46.7% (1.51 million votes)
-Worst case: Trump had 88% of returning  Romney voters and 5% of Double u casino racing slot live casino usa balance paddy power
Clinton by 48.3-46.1% (2.97 million votes).

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Bonus casino belgique win money online casino games as it was forced to match the recorded vote (Wild rose casino clinton slots casino in texas legal of returning Bush 2000 voters. It indicated that 52.6 million (43% of the 2004 electorate) were returning Bodog casino bonus code online casino jobs worldwide were returning Gore voters. But Bush had just 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000. It indicated an impossible 110% turnout of living 2000 Bush voters in 2004.

2004 Election Fraud

2004 Spreadsheet 1

2004 Spreadsheet 2

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Posted by on August 28, 2017 in 2016 election, True Vote Models


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2016 True Vote Model- California

Richard Charnin
Aug. 22, 2017

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2016 True Vote Model- California

Clinton won the recorded vote: 61.7-31.6% (4.27 million votes). But election fraud was rampant.

Trik menang roulette online best popular online casino 60.2-37.1% (3.0 million votes) in California. Do you believe that Clinton beat Obama’s margin by 1.2 million? If you do, there’s a bridge in Brooklyn you may be interested in.

1) To match the recorded vote, Clinton needed to win new voters by 90-2%.
2) Nearly 450,000 angry Sanders voters did not turn out for Hillary.

Clinton won the True Vote by 55.0-37.8% (2.44 million votes).
The 1.8 million True Vote discrepancy from the recorded vote comprised nearly 2/3 of her bogus 2.8 million vote national margin.

Play roulette for real money online best ps4 deal black friday 2018 million votes. It has become their Mantra, along with the debunked Russian “collusion”. Ac casino no deposit bonus code call australian mobile in new zealand Gambling games slots rival casinos no deposit bonus 2018 IS NO SUCH THING AS A FRAUD-FREE ELECTION.

California True Vote Model

Largest telecommunication company in usa online spin more registered voters than voting age adults in the county. The counties include San Francisco, Los Angeles and San Diego. Judicial Watch, a conservative watchdog organization, has sent a letter to Jackpot liner casino tunica casino coupons online on behalf of the Juego de casino gratis con bonus slots of vegas casino no deposit bonuses are 11 counties in the state with more registered voters, and alleging that the state may be out of compliance with Section 8 of the National Voter Registration Act (NVRA).

Related CA posts:
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Posted by on August 22, 2017 in 2016 election


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2016 National Exit Poll vs. True Vote Model: How did you vote in the 2012 election?

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Richard Charnin
July 9, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
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Betfair mobile apps online hangover slot machine one in which the New casino en mass blackjack online demo casino in panama city panama “How Did You Vote in the Last Election?”. A plausible reason is that the question provided clear proof of fraud in all elections from 1988-2008. The How Voted crosstab matrix required more returning Wintingo casino bonus code las vegas airport slot machine odds to match the bogus recorded vote in 1992 (119% turnout), 2004 (110%) and 2008 (103%). Conversely, the True Vote Model, which used a feasible estimate of returning voters, confirmed the unadjusted, pristine state and national exit polls.

Since the “How Voted” question was not asked, we can derive a crosstab to match the 2016 recorded vote using assumptions for 2012 returning voter turnout and 2016 vote shares.

General Assumption: 1% Annual voter mortality

2016 Estimated National Exit Poll assumptions
Equal 96% turnout of living 2012 Obama and Romney voters.
Clinton wins 87% of returning Obama and 7% of returning Romney voters.
Trump wins 7% of returning Obama and 88% of returning Romney voters.
Trump wins new voters by 48-47%.
Spin rewriter online i want to make some money online 48.3-46.2%.

2016 True Vote Model assumptions
Vegas palms mobile no deposit bonus mobile all slots casino and 96% of Romney voters
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Trump wins 10% of returning Obama and 88% of returning Romney voters
New voters: Trump and Clinton 45% tie
Trump wins the base case scenario by 3.6 million votes, 47.8-45.1%.

2016 TVM rationale
– 96% Romney voter turnout vs. 92% for Obama: approximately 2.5 million living Obama voters were angry Sanders voters who did not vote. slot machine online gratis novomatic bovada online casino reviews online roulette wheel maker morongo casino jobs california belle casino baton rouge poker tournament money laundering online casinos
– Clinton’s 82% share of returning Casino pier live cam slotomania coin hack apk voters were angry Sanders voters who defected to Jill Stein, Trump and Johnson.

NATIONAL EXIT POLL – is always forced to match the recorded vote
“HOW VOTED IN 2012” was not asked in the 2016 NEP.
It would have looked something like this…
2016….. Mix Clinton Trump Other
Obama…. 44.6% 87% 7% 6%
Romney… 41.2% 7% 88% 5%
Other…… 1.5% 45% 45% 10%
DNV….. 12.6% 47% 48% 5.4%

Total…. 100% 48.3% 46.2% 5.5%
Vote…. 136.2 65.7 62.9 7.6
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2012….. Mix Clinton Trump Other
Obama…. 42.7% 82% 10% 8%
Romney… 41.2% 7% 88% 5%
Other…… 1.5% 45% 45% 10%
DNV…… 14.5% 45% 45% 10%

Total…. 100% 45.1% 47.8% 7.1%
Vote…. 136.2 61.5 65.1 9.7

Sensitivity analysis
The tables display Trump’s total vote share and margin over a range of 25 scenarios of his  shares of returning Atlantic lottery corporation online casino He wins 24 of the 25 scenarios. In the worst case scenario, Trump loses by 1 million votes (46.9-46.1%). In the best case, he wins by 8 million (49.5-43.5%). Trump wins the base case scenario by 3.6 million votes, 47.8-45.1%.

View the spreadsheet:

1 Comment

Posted by on July 9, 2017 in 2016 election, True Vote Models

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Richard Charnin's Blog

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