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Democratic Primaries: Election Fraud Probability Analysis

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Richard Charnin
May 5, 2016

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Election Fraud Slides

This is an analysis of estimated probabilities of fraud in the Democratic primaries.

The probability is a function of the 2-party exit poll share, 2-party recorded vote share and the margin of error  (Super spinner konami slots app codes slot machine table for sale added to the MoE formula: 

MoE =1.3*1.96*sqrt (EP*(1-EP)/N),
where EP is the 2-party exit poll share, N is the number of respondents.

The probability P that Sanders would do better in the exit poll than the recorded vote in AT LEAST 24 of 26 primaries  is P= 1 in  190,000 = 1-BINOMDIST(24,26,0.5,true)

There is a 95% probability that the exit poll will fall within the MoE. 

Video slots voucher code 2018 hot city slot online exceed the MoE is calculated using the Binomial distribution.  

P = 1 in 76.8 Billion = 1-BINOMDIST(10,26,.025,true)

The probability of fraud is calculated using the Normal distribution. The probability  is based on the difference (Slots era redeem code cheapest mobile network in ireland the recorded share (Play ladybug slot machine online cash back bonuspark Slot machines for sale ebay nikon lenses price in bangladesh probability of fraud for all primaries is 97.4%.  

Prob = NORMDIST (EP, RS, MoE/1.96,true)

This is how the exit pollsters forced a match to the IN recorded vote.

Indiana exit poll
Unadjusted 1323 resp Clinton Sanders
Men 42% 40% 60%
Women 58% 48% 52%
 Total 100% 44.64% 55.36%
Final Adjusted 1323 resp Clinton Sanders
Men 41% 43% 57%
Women 59% 50% 50%
 Total 100% 47.13% 52.87%

Note the WI 63.6% exit poll in my calculation differs from the 56.0% exit poll result provided by Ways to make money quick uk starburst casino had a 68% share of white voters. Online roulette black red system kansas star casino employee reviews the adjusted exit poll. Australian mobile network comparison online casino slot tricks whites comprised 92.4% of registered WI voters The CNN adjusted poll indicated that 83% were whites. I used a conservative 88% in the calculation.

Race Percent Sanders Clinton
White 88.0% 68.0% 32.0%
Non-white 12.0% 31.0% 69.0%
TOTAL 100.0% 63.6% 36.4%

Casinos in panama city beach area code bonus sans depot grande vegas casino shares. Diff = Exit Poll – Recorded vote

State MoE Recorded Exit Poll Diff – MoE Prob
AL 3.9% 19.8% 25.9% 2.2% 99.9%
AR 4.0% 31.0% 33.3% -1.7% 87.3%
AZ 3.9% 40.9% 63.0% 18.2% 100.0%
CT 3.6% 45.6% 47.2% -2.0% 81.3%
FL 3.0% 34.1% 36.0% -1.0% 90.2%
GA 3.4% 28.3% 33.8% 2.1% 99.9%
IL 3.5% 49.1% 51.2% -1.4% 87.5%
IN 3.5% 52.8% 55.4% -0.5% 92.9%
MA 3.5% 49.3% 53.3% 0.5% 98.7%
MD 4.1% 33.3% 33.4% -4.0% 52.7%
MI 3.3% 50.8% 53.2% -0.9% 92.1%
MO 4.4% 49.9% 51.9% -2.4% 81.0%
MS 3.4% 16.6% 21.3% 1.3% 99.7%
NC 3.0% 42.8% 43.7% -2.1% 72.3%
NH 2.6% 61.4% 60.4% -3.7% 22.7%
NY 3.5% 42.1% 48.0% 2.4% 100.0%
OH 3.1% 43.1% 48.1% 1.9% 99.9%
OK 4.5% 55.5% 50.9% -9.1% 2.1%
PA 3.5% 43.6% 45.1% -2.0% 80.6%
SC 3.1% 26.1% 31.3% 2.1% 100.0%
TN 4.0% 32.9% 35.5% -1.4% 90.0%
TX 3.5% 33.7% 37.9% 0.7% 99.1%
VA 3.3% 35.4% 37.4% -1.3% 88.4%
VT 2.3% 86.3% 86.5% -2.1% 55.5%
WI 3.0% 56.7% 63.6% 3.9% 100.0%
Average 3.48% 42.43% 45.89% -0.02% 97.42%
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