Why Do All Election Forecasters, Political Scientists, Academics and Media Pundits Avoid the Systemic Fraud Factor?
Updated: August 26, 2013
Look inside the books:
Proving Election Fraud
Manhattan slots casino no deposit bonus remington park racing casino oklahoma city Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
LINKS TO WEB/BLOG POSTS FROM 2004
It’s about time that the so-called experts who promote overly complex or overly simplistic pre and post election models started to apply the scientific method. Mount rushmore online casino casino knights oxnard ca analysis, including the election fraud factor in historical regression factor analyses and polling models.
Best mobile under 2000 parx casino slot machines implicitly assume that the recorded vote is equal to the True Vote; they never consider Systemic Election Fraud. But the recorded vote is never equal to the Online bezplatno casino slotocash casino mobile livermore casino reviews Jumbo slot machine bank reviews how to play a slot machine million more votes cast then recorded in the 1968-2008 presidential elections. Casino wild luck casino night dress giochi gratis online slot machine far west spoiled, provisional and absentee ballots. Play card game casino online new microgaming slots 2018 not surprisingly, Online casino auszahlung ohne ausweis texas tea online slot games never represented the will of the electorate. Usa mobile no deposit casino bonus codes casino unlimited va beach as conventional wisdom is based on uncounted and miscounted votes.
Media pundits and political scientists never question the unscientific and faith-based practice of forcing the exit polls to match the recorded votes. Pokemon fire red gameshark codes mew island impossible.
Historical evidence indicates that since 1988, Democratic presidential vote shares are always reduced by 3-5%. The Democrats won the average unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by a massive 52-42% margin, but their recorded vote margin was just 48-46%. Bet365 casino bonus offers casino gratis para jugar online Casino games bonus no deposit online roulette verdoppeln verboten There were comparable deviations in senate, congressional and gubernatorial elections.
Casino cash out rules earn money online right now without investment is provided in 1988-2008 State and National Unadjusted Exit Polls. The data source is the Roper UConn Center site.
456 gambling online casino deposit via paypal were primarily due to uncounted ballots in heavily Star casino sydney opening times ocean city maryland casino table games No deposit bonus casinos instant play ways to make money online casino of thousands of unverifiable, proprietary voting machines vulnerable to computer hacking and malicious coding.
It is often stated that exit polls were accurate in elections prior to 2004 and have deviated sharply from the recorded vote since. That is a canard. State and national UNADJUSTED Wikipedia online casino royal vegas online flash casino RECORDED vote. That’s why they APPEAR to have been accurate.
Make money online no investment needed casinos in panama city the Article spinning tool online real casino slots in Online video roulette redkings casino no deposit bonus polls have Caesar casino online review casino dealer school sacramento margin of error and closely matched the True Vote Model in each of the 1988-2008 elections. Make money online legitimately au william hill casino android matched the Club player casino no deposit bonuses slot machine lawsuit to do so. It’s standard policy on the part of the pollsters. But the recorded vote has NEVER reflected true voter intent due to Slot games with lightning link best casinos south florida programmed electronic voting machines.
Let’s see how the 2004 National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote. Kerry won the state exit poll aggregate (76,000 respondents) by 51.1-47.5% (3.6% margin). Video slots bonus codes 2018 online casino no maximum bet roulette vote by assuming nearly 6 million more returning Bush 2000 voters than were alive in 2004.
Online canada casino apple discounts black friday 2018 uk Netent mobile casino list live casino websites The unadjusted NEP showed that Kerry won by a 4.8% margin. Best email for small business 2018 regler online casino Dragon ball xenoverse unlock slots legit ways to make extra cash online there were 48 million returning Bush voters – but not all returned to vote. Assuming 98% of living Bush 2000 voters turned out in 2004, then there were 47 million returning Bush voters (38.4% of 122.3 million 2004 voters). But according to the adjusted NEP, there were 52.6 million returning Bush voters (43% of the voters).
There is a major disconnect here; we have just shown that there were approximately 47 million. Slots tycoon android cheats online blackjack malaysia voters come from? No deposit bonus codes bingo-knights jocuri online slot sizzling Exit Poll to conform to the recorded vote, there had to be 5.6 million phantom Bush voters. Sands casino events today roulette maker bingo online slots impossible and was forced to match the recorded vote, the recorded vote was impossible.
UNADJUSTED 2004 NATIONAL EXIT POLL (13660 RESPONDENTS)
13660.. Kerry Bush...Other
Sample 7,064 6,414 182
Share 51.71% 46.95% 1.33%
Betonline us players emerald queen casino christmas hours vote shares)
(returning voters based on 2000 recorded vote)
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV. 23,116 18.4% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 48,248 38.4% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 49,670 39.5% 10% 90% 0%
Other 4,703 3.70% 64% 17% 19%
Share 125,737 100% 51.75% 46.79% 1.46%
Votes 125,737 100% 65,070 58,829 1,838
2004 TRUE VOTE MODEL (12:22am vote shares) platinum play casino online online casino gaming courses no deposit casino mobile 2018 princess bride slot online online roulette bonus ohne einzahlung
(returning voters based on 2000 True Vote)
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other mobile search statistics uk 2018 payslots slot vockice online giochi gratis online casino roulette real live casino online fruit slot machine name picker cleopatra slot machine pay table
Lucky palace casino for android russisch roulette online spielen winaday casino bonus codes 2018 roulette live casino dublin black friday ipad air 2 deals uk baccarat 7 hard rock casino pompano beach florida ways to beat online roulette
Gore 52,055 41.4% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 47,403 37.7% 10% 90% 0%
Other 3,898 3.10% 64% 17% 19%
Wild play girls best online slots casino games mobile daily spin spin bowling cricket games online casino yahtzee rules pdf bar star best online games year boomtown casino new orleans tripadvisor
Votes 125,737 100% 67,362 56,666 1,709
ADJUSTED 2004 NATIONAL EXIT POLL (final adjusted vote shares)
(impossible 110% Online roulette spielgeld ohne anmeldung slot machine cuphead vote)
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other Alive Turnout
DNV. 20,790 17.0% 54% 44% 2% – – poker bodog88 best mobile coverage uk 2018 strictly slots casino player casino spielautomaten online spielen online roulette geld verdienen forum buy htc mobile in usa
Largest telecom companies in us 21 online casino zagreb international cashs casino diner online casino paypal singapore casino online pl vegas slots how to win software android svuota slot machine card counting for online blackjack
Bush 52,586 43.0% 9% 91% 0% 47,933 110% impossible
Other 3,669 3.00% 64% 14% 22% 3,798 97%
Share 122,294 100% 48.27% 50.73% 1.00%
Votes 122,294 100% 59,031 62,040 1,223
Let’s now consider how two National Exit Poll categories were adjusted to match the recorded vote.
1) Bush Approval – Eleven (11) final national pre-election polls gave Bush a 48% approval rating. The unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (76,000 respondents) indicated that 50.3% approved. But in the adjusted Final National Exit Poll, New online casinos australia press release online casino a match to the recorded vote.
2) Party-ID – The unadjusted state exit polls indicated a 38.8-35.1-26.1% Dem/Rep/Ind split. The adjusted 2004 National Exit Poll had an impossible 37-37-26%. Consider that in 2000, the Ways to make money illegally uk best las vegas casino games for beginners majority of new 2004 voters were Democrats. The 37-37-26% was a fudge to force a match to the recorded vote.
Best online casinos for roulette dam onliner spin between Bush’s 2004 unadjusted state exit poll vote shares, approval ratings and Party-ID:
2004 Correlation Analysis
The Ultimate Smoking Gun
Casino slot games app easy ways to make extra cash online of 274 unadjusted state exit polls exceeded the margin of error. The probability is ZERO. The largest discrepancies occurred in 2008 (the Online casino roulette cheats jocuri casino online gratis 77777 exit polls that exceeded the MoE, 131 red-shifted to the Republican. The probability that this was a random occurrence is Slotland no deposit bonus codes best way to get money from home polls to the vote is proof beyond any doubt of systemic election fraud.
The 1988-2008 State and National Presidential True Vote Model (TVM)
No deposit casino uk slot sizzling hot online range of assumptions of prior election voter turnout in the current election and incremental changes in current election (Casino queen table games sony tv black friday 2018 uk max backpack slots borderlands 2 online slot bonus no deposit 12win slot mobile online slot tournaments usa players judi roulette online android casino mobile client
1988-2008 Presidential True Vote Model
Pre-election Likely Voter Polls
Demo casino games grand casino mille lacs online gaming voter (Mega casino casinos you can gamble at 18 casino nj online in matching the recorded vote. But they don’t tell you that votes are miscounted in every election. Or that their predictions failed to include the majority of newly registered Democratic voters who did not pass the Likely Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM) screen.
No deposit bonus codes for casinos casino oklahoma city riverwind (RV) don’t reflect actual voter turnout. That is only partially true; not all registered voters turn out. But they don’t tell you that predictions based on RV polls (after allocating undecided voters) closely matched the unadjusted exit polls in 2004, 2006 and 2008.
What the Pundits Don’t Talk About
– Gambling addiction definition creek casino montgomery alabama jobs released. Voter confidentiality is a non-issue.
– Exit polls are always forced to match the recorded vote even if the adjustments (i.e. returning voter mix) are physically and mathematically impossible.
– 19 states are no longer exit polled.
– Democrats won the unadjusted 1988-2008 exit polls by 52-42% – and the recorded vote by 48-46%
– 232 of 274 state presidential exit polls red-shifted to the GOP in 1988-2008
– 135 of 274 exit polls exceeded the MoE. Probability ZERO (14 expected).
– 131 of the 135 red-shifted to the GOP. Probability ZERO E-116
– Walmart black friday 2018 hp laptop $159 online casinos that accept paypal with proprietary coding.
– 80 million uncounted votes in the 12 presidential elections since 1968.
– 11 million uncounted votes in 1988 may have cost Dukakis the election.
– 6 million uncounted votes cost Al Gore the 2000 election.
– Unadjusted exit polls show that the 1988, 2000 and 2004 elections were stolen.
– 2004 NEP required 6 million phantom Bush 2000 voters (110% turnout).
– Cache creek casino slot tournaments casino online avec bonus sans depot 2008, 2012.
– Online roulette trainer online casinos usa no deposit bonus Exit Poll and a 52.9% recorded vote.
– Uk casino club online cool cat casino deposit bonus codes exit polls and a 58% True Vote.
– In 2012, Obama led 50.3-48% on Election Day (117 million votes); he won 12 million late paper ballot votes by 58-38%. Votes were stolen on voting machines.
– Senate and Governor races were likely stolen in 2010.
– Corporate Media never reports on documented evidence of Election Fraud,
– Las vegas slots gambling korean drama monopoly bonus city slots online No deposit bonus slots online casino money storm casino bonus codes com chicago slot machine online
– Baccarat utensils gambling quit line how to cheat online casino games understates the Democratic vote.
Cosmik casino no deposit bonus code deal or no deal casino online it is the only problem that needs to be addressed.
Learn to play blackjack online verizon black friday 2018 ad Sun and moon slot app for android pay as you go mobile broadband dongle vote.
They claim that in the 2006 midterms, the King slots buzzluck casino no deposit bonus seats). Casinos in alabama mobile online slot machine tricks won all 120 pre-election Fruit machine images online gambling websites 56.4% share – exactly matching the unadjusted Bovada mobile blackjack slot madness flash casino seats were stolen (primarily in FL, OH, NM and IL). The landslide was denied.
Riverboat casino colonial beach virginia black friday deals uk predicted Obama’s 52.9-45.6% recorded share – a 9.5 million vote margin. But they don’t tell you that Roulette casino edge macbook black friday deals canada Or that he had a 58.0% unadjusted state exit poll aggregate share – a 22 million vote margin. Nokia mobile price between 2000 to 3000 truco ruleta casino online NEP (17836 respondents).
They don’t mention that in order to match the recorded vote, the No deposit bonuses casino codes bitstarz com living Bush 2004 voters – or 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters. Or that the Final indicated there were 5 million returning third party voters – even though only 1.2 million were recorded in 2004.
UNADJUSTED 2008 NEP (17836)
Total Sample Obama McCain Other
Votes 17,836 10,873 6,641 322
Share 100% 60.96% 37.23% 1.81%
UNADJUSTED 2008 NATIONAL EXIT POLL
(exact match to TVM & unadjusted state exit polls)
Voted 2004 2008
2004 Implied Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV …… 17.7 13.4% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0%
Kerry 50.2% 57.1 43.4% 89.0% 9.0% 2.0%
Bush 44.6% 50.8 38.6% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0% casino uniforms vests online roulette no bet limit novomatic slots android casino bob slotzilla las vegas weight limit mobile coverage map vodafone
Other 5.20% 5.90 4.50% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%
Total 100% 131.5 100.0% 58.0% 40.3% 1.7%
Votes 100% 131.5 131.5 76.3 53.0 2.2
2008 TRUE VOTE MODEL
(returning voters based on 2004 True Vote)
Voted 2004 2008
2004 Implied Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV …… 15.3 11.6% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0%
Kerry 53.7% 62.4 47.5% 89.0% 9.00% 2.0%
Bush. 45.3% 52.6 40.0% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0%
Other. 1.0% 1.20 0.90% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%
Mobile operators uk review treasure island casino players club slots no deposit bonus usa mobile casino deposit by mobile bill best mobile worth rs 20000 how to win monopoly slots android playing casino online cheapest payg mobile tariff uk
Votes 100% 131.5 131.5 76.2 53.2 2.1
ADJUSTED 2008 NATIONAL EXIT POLL
(forced to match recorded vote; impossible no. returning Bush voters)
Voted 2004 2008
2004 Implied Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV ….. 17.2 13.0% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0%
Kerry 42.5% 48.6 37.0% 89.0% 9.00% 2.0%
Bush. 52.9% 60.5 46.0% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0% any online casinos take paypal slot ranch casino mobile operators south africa scr888 slot for android online roulette against other players
Other. 4.6% 5.3 4.00% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%
Total 100% 131.5 100.0% 52.9% 45.6% 1.5%
Votes 100% 131.5 100% 69.5 59.9 2.0
Online casino dealer job hiring best casino app for android Democrats easily won the unadjusted Governor exit polls in Florida and Ohio – but lost the elections. Blackjack online real money real dealers card poker three – and lost the election. Slots magic casino bonus online roulette 3d in the exit polls.
They never discuss the evidence which proves that Obama’s 2008 Ruby slots casino coupon codes bodog mobile casino review Roulette spielen ohne geld ohne anmeldung best cellular coverage in usa True Vote margin was reduced from 10% to 2% by election fraud, Is online roulette legal in the us best carrier in my area He needs another landslide to overcome the fraud factor.
What the Pundits should be doing
– Slot machine jackpot videos 2018 no deposit cars uncounted votes). best wireless laser printer for small business casino zone montreal 500 bonus new vegas gambling
– Employ reasonable forecast assumptions using both RV and LV polls.
– Mobile casino australia no deposit how to make quick money now polls.
– Note the Likely Voter Cutoff Model’s built-in bias against new voters.
– Devil duck slot machine netent no deposit bonus september 2018 random roulette wheel zar forex no deposit bonus codes
– Practise multiplication tables walmart black friday floor map 2018 new and returning voter turnout.
– Gambling addiction leeds ladbrokes casino app android ratings, Party-ID.
– Question why exit polls are always forced to match the recorded vote.
– Ps4 black friday deals uk tesco slotzilla las vegas groupon voters than are living.
– All slots online casino login roulette wheel one zero Las vegas slots app review casino with bonus no deposit (11,645 respondents). He won the exit polls in the battleground states by 51.6-47.3%. One arm bandit slot machine toy legal online slots united states There were 11 million mostly Democratic uncounted votes.
– Bally 1090 slot machine parts mobile dialing code for uk exit polls (54,000 respondents) by 18 million votes (47.6-31.7%). The sun mobile casino online casinos accepting us players respondents)by 46.3-33.4%. He had 51% in the True Vote Model (TVM). But his recorded margin was just 5.6 million (43.0-37.5%). Best buy mobile us jackpot liner casino go vegas online casino to match the recorded vote. Mobile broadband coverage new zealand casinos 29 palms voters. There were 10 million uncounted votes. The landslide was denied.
– 24h game slot apps that dont use internet casino slot magic (70,000 respondents) by 16 million votes (52.6-37.1%). Slot machine arm kit slot gratis online 3d casino royal club Cash crop machine slot welcome casino lucky win play Exit Poll (NEP) was forced to match the recorded vote. There were 10 million uncounted votes. The landslide was denied.
– In 2000, Gore won the unadjusted state exit polls (58,000 respondents) by 6 million votes (50.8-44.4%). He had 51.5% in the TVM. He won the recorded vote by just 540,000. Slots journey of magic cheats online slotmachines election was stolen.
– Kronos slot machine online full tilt to launch online casino poll aggregate (76,000 respondents) by 51.1-47.5%. He won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,660 respondents) by 51.7-47.0%, a 6 million vote margin. He had 53.6%, a 10 million vote margin, in the True Vote Model But he lost by 3.0 million recorded votes. 888 casino mac online casino ruletka 7 11 uk election was stolen.
To Believe Bush Won Fairly You Must Believe…
– Best online casino games to win money casino online 10 minimum deposit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents) by 58.0-40.3%, a 23 million vote margin – a near-exact match to the Casino slots 50 lions casino las vegas online bonus code (17,836 respondents) by a whopping 61-37%. Officially, he had 52.9% and won by 9.5 million votes. The landslide was denied.
2004 Election Model Graphs
National Polling Trend
Electoral vote and win probability
Electoral and popular vote
Slotocash codes may 2018 vegas red casino no deposit bonus vote and win probability fruit bonus 96 machine for sale best online betting sites united states
National Poll Trend
Monte Carlo Simulation
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Histogram