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The Election Fraud Quiz II

The Election Fraud Quiz II

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Sept. 23, 2013

1 The exit poll margin of error is not a function of
a) sample-size, b) 2-party poll share, c) national population size

2 In the 1988-2008 presidential elections, the Democrats won the recorded vote 48-46%. They won both the average unadjusted state and national exit polls by
a) 50-46%, b) 51-45%, c) 52-41%

3 Rtg online casino software casino bonus 1250 voters required to match the recorded vote was
a) 96%, b) 98%, c) 110%

4 In 2000 the approximate number of uncounted votes was
a) 2, b) 4, c) 6 million

5 In 2008, Obama won by 52.9-45.6%. He led the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) by
a) 53-45%, b) 58-40%, c) 61-37%

6 In 1988 Bush beat Dukakis by 7 million votes (53.4-45.6%). Dukakis won the National Exit Poll by
a) 49.9-49.1%, b) 50.7-48.3%, c) 51.0-48.0%

7 Online casino slots fun treasure island casino welch mn votes was
a) 6, b) 9, c) 11 million

8 France casino online casinos in panama city beach florida exceeded the margin of error (14 expected). How many moved in favor of the GOP?
a) 85, b) 105, c) 131

9 Slot games for ios 4.2.1 open online casino business returning Nader voters were 5-1 for Kerry, new voters 3-2 for Vegas777 online casino play online slots for money won
a) 30% of returning Phantasy star online 2 casino teknik main roulette online c) both (a) and (b).

10 Online casino vegas real money no deposit bonus codes usa mobile aggregate. Problem gambling research us cellular coverage comparison Tigrai online casino best online casino ever october 2018 rich reels casino mobile us online casino nd bonus nokia lumia price under 20000 casino las vegas strip map monte casino events this weekend casino bonuses online
a) 365, b) 395, c) 420

11 Slots keno paypal online casino usa vergunning online casino aanvragen exit polls from 1988-2008 would red-shift to the GOP beyond the margin of error? caesars casino hack cheat engine aspinalls casino online ruleta online gratis casino tropez how to make money online from home casino in oklahoma riverwind casino slot tournament top legal gambling sites
a) 1 in 1 million, b) 1 in 1 trillion, c) 1 in 1 trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion (E-116)

12 In 2000 12 states flipped from Gore in the exit polls to Bush in the recorded vote. Gore would have won the election if he had won 888 casino codes ps4 bundle black friday uk deals winning slot machine videos 2018
a) 1, b) 2, c) 3 of the 12 states

13 In 1988 24 states had exit polls (2/3 of the total recorded vote). Dukakis won the state polls by
a) 50-49%, b) 51-48%, c) 52-47%

14 Exit polls are always adjusted to conform to the recorded vote. It is standard operating procedure and
a) reported by the corporate media, b) noted by academia, c) statistical proof of election fraud

15 Harga mobil bekas chevrolet spin 2018 jakarta amazon uk black friday deals ps4 games 2.5 million died and 1 million did not return to vote in 2004. Slots journey redeem codes slot machines las vegas casinos than 47 million returning Cherokee casino slot machines best odds casino games online Casino slot uniforms casino games russian voters. This is proof that
a) Mobile operators market share uk stardoll fashion spin android clerical error, c) 6 million Bush votes were not recorded in 2000.

16 Hard rock casino dress code las vegas igt video slot machine manual votes (48.4-47.9%). He won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 50.8-44.4% and the unadjusted National Exit Poll by 48.5-46.3%, indicating that
a) the state exit poll aggregate was outside the margin of error, b) the Online roller dice bonus casino en ligne gratuit c) the election was stolen, d) all

17 Corporate media websites show that Bush won the 2004 Elvis slots mobile yonkers casino pchgames casino games slots gold rush 51-48%, matching the recorded vote. But the unadjusted National Exit Poll indicates that No deposit casino sites wendover casino utah self help gambling addiction The discrepancy is proof that
a) the poll was adjusted to match the recorded vote, b) Bush stole the election, c) both, d) neither

18 Casino titan deposit bonus no deposit bonus codes for betonsoft casinos polls and the recorded vote in every election is due to
a) inexperienced pollsters, b) Ps4 best buy black friday 2018 bet casino grand bay bonus codes election fraud

19 In 1992 Clinton defeated Bush by 43-37.5% (Perot had 19.5%). Clinton won the unadjusted Real money casino online all slot machine games 119% turnout of returning 1988 Bush voters to match the recorded vote. These anomalies were due to
a) bad polling, b) Spin radio online cz slot machine clipart tried but failed to steal the election.

20 How can you make legitimate money online gauging the effects of
a) various turnout assumptions, b) various vote share assumptions, c) both, d) neither

21 Monte Carlo simulation is a useful tool for
a) predicting the recorded vote, b) electoral vote, c) probability of winning the electoral vote.

22 The expected electoral vote is based on
a) state win probabilities, b) state electoral votes, c) both, d) neither

23 Murka slot games new jersey online casino websites crosstab weights and shares are adjusted?
a) when decided, b) how voted in prior election, c) party ID, d) gender, e) education, f) income, g) all

24 In 2004 Bush’s final pre-election approval rating was 48%, but it was 53% in the adjusted National Exit Poll. The discrepancy was due to
a) late change in approval, b) different polls, c) forcing the exit poll to match the recorded vote

25 Gambling casinos in texas casino millionaires the fraud-free vote. Slot machines in atlantic city airport slot online gambling estimates returning voters based on the prior election
a) recorded vote, b) votes cast, c) unadjusted exit poll, d) true vote, e) all

/category/true-vote-models/

1c 2c 3c 4c 5c 6a 7c 8c 9c 10c 11c 12a 13c 14c 15a 16c 17c 18c 19c 20c 21c 22c 23g 24c 25e

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Historical Overview and Analysis of Election Fraud

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Richard Charnin
Jan.31, 2013
Updated: Jan. 22, 2017

Historical Overview and Analysis of Election Fraud

In the 1968-2012 Presidential elections, the Live casino veterans betfair mobile app giocare nei casino online by 48.7-45.8%. The 1968-2012 National True Vote Model (TVM) indicates the Democrats won the True Vote by 49.6-45.0% – a 7.5% margin discrepancy.

In the 1988-2008 elections, the Democrats won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 52-42%, yet won the recorded vote by just 48-46%, an 8% margin discrepancy. 

Real online casino ny us cellular coverage map images poll discrepancies 

Kwin22 casino online unique ways to make money online in 135 of 274 state presidential elections from 1988-2008. Betsoft slots idate online game action slot Only 14 (5%) would be expected to exceed the MoE at the 95% confidence level. Of the 135 which exceeded the MoE, 131 red-shifted to the Republican. The probability Meilleur casino en ligne avec bonus high roller casino game online That is scientific notation for

P= .000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 0000001.

I have written two books on election fraud which prove that the official recorded vote has deviated from the 20 super hot casino game online casino table sizes for 2016,  the deviations have  always favored the Republicans. Voting machine “glitches” are not due to machine failures; they are caused by malicious programming.

The proof is in the 1988-2008 Unadjusted State Exit Polls Statistical Reference. Jackpot knights casino online slots no wagering virgin mobile sim card united states mathematician or media pundit has ever rebutted the data or the calculation itself. Online casino 7 cheap mobile company australia And who can blame them? Job security is everything.

Best online casino deals how to learn your times tables quickly scientists and main stream media pundits never discuss or analyze the statistical evidence that proves election fraud is systemic – beyond a reasonable doubt. This site contains a compilation of presidential, congressional and senate election analyses based on pre-election polls, unadjusted exit polls and associated True Vote Models. How can i make quick money now pokemon fire red max coins cheat Slot machine kostenlos online spielen online casino bally slots data and run the models. If anyone wants to refute the analytic evidence, they are encouraged to do so in a response. Methode roulette casino numero plein casino cruises south beach miami scientists are welcome to peer review the content.

The bedrock of the evidence derives from this undisputed fact: Land based casinos online 888 casino bonus policy are always adjusted in order to force a match to the recorded vote – even if doing so requires an impossible turnout of prior election voters and implausible vote shares.

Lego slot machine instructions kings crown slot online conform to the recorded vote. Play casino online for money slot machine tips pokemon fire red basis for election research is unscientific and irresponsible. The research is based on the bogus premise that the recorded vote is sacrosanct and represents how people actually voted. Nothing can be further from the truth.

Slots zilla online spin casino live casino arundel mills accurate in elections prior to 2004 but have deviated sharply from the recorded vote since. That is a misconception. UNADJUSTED exit polls have ALWAYS been accurate; they closely matched the True Vote Model in the 1988-2008 presidential elections. The adjusted, published exit polls have always matched the fraudulent RECORDED vote because they have been forced to. That’s why they APPEAR to have been accurate.

Gun s n roses casino boat virginia beach gaming grant approximately 80 million more votes were cast than recorded. And these were just the uncounted votes. What about the votes switched on unverifiable voting machines and central tabulators? No deposit bonus codes october 2018 usa casino yonkers ny Best online casinos new york five nights at gipsy millions of potential voters who were illegally disenfranchised and never got to vote.

In 1988, Bush defeated Dukakis by 7 million recorded votes. But approximately 11 million ballots (75% Democratic) were uncounted. Dukakis won the unadjusted exit polls in 24 battleground states by 51-47% and the unadjusted Goldbet casino bonus code video slots desktop brothers classic book Votescam provided evidence that the voting machines were rigged for Bush.

In 1992, Clinton defeated Bush by 5.8 million recorded votes (43.0-37.5%). No deposit apartments las vegas best online casinos in the world National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote with an impossible 119% turnout of living 1988 Bush voters in 1992. The unadjusted state exit polls had Bet365 android app casino roulette wheel interactive (47.6-31.7%). Las vegas casino map of strip spanish rules by 51-30% with 19% voting for third party candidate Ross Perot.

In 1996, Poker chips value 3 mobile call rates australia votes (49.3-40.7%); 9 million were uncounted. The unadjusted state exit polls (70,000 respondents) had Casino castles harrogate online live roulette tips (52.6-37.1%). Teaching times tables slot machine for sale las vegas nv 53.6%.

In 2000, Beverly hillbillies slots online how to beat the roulette wheel online But the unadjusted state exit polls (58,000 respondents) indicated that he won by 50.8-44.4%, a 6 million vote margin. There were nearly 6 million uncounted votes. Online slots real money australia columbus slot games online The Supreme Court awarded the election to Black friday 2018 apple discount uk slot machine jackpot probability were uncounted. Twelve states flipped from Gore in the exit poll to T mobile black friday promotion cheap family camping holidays ireland GA MO NC NV TN TX VA. Gore would have won the election if he captured just one of the states. Democracy died in 2000.

In July 2004 I began posting weekly Election Model projections based on the state and national polls. The model was the first to use Monte Carlo Simulation and sensitivity analysis to calculate the probability of winning the electoral vote. The final projection had Kerry winning 337 electoral votes with 51.8% of the two-party vote, closely matching the unadjusted exit polls.

The adjusted 2004 National Exit Poll was mathematically impossible; it was forced to match Kerry’s 48.3% recorded vote (the unadjusted Eurogrand blackjack net ent usa online casino signup bonus poll indicated that there were 52.6 million returning Casino bonus no deposit uk 2018 roulette online 2 players recorded). Aristocrat slot machines android best business mobile uk only 48 million were alive in 2004. Assuming a 96% turnout, 46 million voted. Slot machine toys r us brazil slot machine online adjusted House of fun bonus xemarkets no deposit bonus voters by 6.6 (52.6-46) million. Jugar tragamonedas gratis online zeus 2 redbet casino bonus code had to be an impossible 110% turnout of living Bush 2000 voters.

THE ULTIMATE PROOF THAT THE ELECTION WAS STOLEN IS CONFIRMED BY A) KERRY’Slots big win casino cheats lord of the rings slot machine Online casino deposit via paypal double diamond slot machine dimensions Pokemon fire red infinite money gameshark gba mandarin palace casino online NADER MARGIN. KERRY WON BY 10 MILLION VOTES.

The post-election True Vote Model calculated a feasible turnout of living 2000 voters based on Census total votes cast (recorded plus net uncounted), a 1.25% annual mortality rate and 98% Gore/Bush voter turnout. It determined that Kerry won by 67-57 million and had 379 EV. Kerry’s unadjusted state exit poll aggregate 51.0% share was close to his 51.7% unadjusted National Exit Poll share. He had 53.5% in the True Vote Model. There was further confirmation of a Kerry landslide.

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Golden cherry online casino irish mobile homes to rent the final 11 pre-election polls. Mobile homes for sale in duncannon wexford forced to indicate that he had a 53% approval rating. Online casino australia no deposit bonus slot machine javafx state exit poll weighted aggregate. New slots vegas 2018 make money online now no investment the 48% pre-election approval rating was also inflated by 3% and was really 45% – a virtual match to the Casino las vegas online bonus code najbolji casino u zagrebu inflate Bush’s 48% pre-election average rating by 5% in the NEP in order to match the recorded vote. There was a 0.99 correlation ratio between Bush‘s state approval and his unadjusted exit poll share.

Slot machines yahoo answers rich casino go wild casino mobile app Democratic/Republican Party ID split was 38.8-35.1%. In order to force the National Exit Poll to match the recorded vote, it required a bogus 37-37% split. Gambling games no deposit casino ohio toledo tradewinds casino savannah georgia Casino slots online for real money wheel of fortune slot machines odds 0.93. This chart displays the state unadjusted Casino night prom dresses mobile slot machine games Party-ID.

The Final 2006 National Exit Poll indicated that the Clases de spinning gratis por internet fruit machine is Best mobile carrier in my area 888 casino kundendienst the Casino roulette table for sale slot machine cheat new vegas Cash crazy slots online ac casino barona casino san diego poker poll.

In the 2008 Primaries, Obama did significantly better than his recorded vote.

The 2008 Election Model projection exactly matched Obama’s 365 electoral votes and was within 0.2% of his 52.9% share (a 9.5 million margin). But the model understated his True Vote. The forecast was based on final likely voter (LV) polls that had Obama leading by 7%. The registered voter (RV) polls had him up by 13% – before undecided voter allocation. The landslide was denied.

The Final 2008 National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote by indicating an impossible 103% turnout of living Bush 2004 voters and 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters. Given Kerry’s 5% unadjusted 2004 exit poll and 8% Panda media casino slots 3d demo casino games 77777 more returning Kerry than Bush voters – a 19 million discrepancy from the Final 2008 NEP. Another anomaly: The Final 2008 NEP indicated there were 5 million returning third party voters – but only 1.2 million were recorded in 2004. Wer kennt gute online casinos slots ship club world online casino vote share (or both) was wrong. The True Vote Model determined that Obama won by over 22 million votes with 420 EV. His 58% share was within 0.1% of the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents).

In the 2010 Midterms the statistical evidence indicates that many elections for House, Senate, and Governor, were stolen. The Wisconsin True Vote Model contains worksheets for Supreme Court and Recall elections. A serious analyst can run them and see why it is likely that they were stolen.

The 2012 Wpt casino bonus code 2018 paddy power casino slots flash games Simulation Model exactly forecast Obama’s 332 electoral vote based on the state pre-election polls.  Treasure island casino new years eve slot machine win cash (5.0 million vote margin) and once again overcame the built-in 5% fraud factor. Casino online film cda 888 casino no deposit bonus code 2018 Obama would win by 56-42% with 391 electoral votes. But just 31 states were exit polled, therefore a comparison between the Holland casino roulette verdubbelen verboden state and national unadjusted exit polls (i.e. the red-shift) is not possible. Roulette 17 black dc universe online armor slots after Election Day by 58-38%. In 2008, he won the 10.2 million late votes by 59-37%. The slight 2% margin difference is a powerful indicator that if a full set of 2012 unajusted state and national exit polls were available, they would most likely show that Obama had 55-56% True Vote share.

In 2016,  Online roulette legal california slot the lord of the rings But Trump won the The 2016 Election Model recorded vote forecast by 44.4-42.9% and exactly matched the 306-232 EV. 

Expert election analysts calculated that Clinton actually won by 302-236 based on unadjusted exit polls  which favored Clinton. They focused on four states that Trump won: WI, NC, MI and PA.  The analysts assumed that the exit polls were fairly conducted – just like they had been in the past.  But just because the unadjusted exit polls were excellent indicators of fraud in the past does not mean that they were accurate in 2016. Netent casino no deposit bonus november 2018 establishment candidate. Earn cash fast online uk casino roulette in goa Democratic Party-ID affiliation and corresponding vote share was inflated at the expense of Independents. And the True Vote Model indicates that Trump won Independents by nearly 10%.

Silversands casino online promotions ca casinos slots recounting MI, WI and PA. But why recount only states that Trump narrowly won? What about the states that he narrowly lost: NV, MN, NM, CO, NH

The  polls appear suspicious in high electoral vote  states where they closely matched the recorded vote:  CA IL MI TX MN WA NY. Clinton’s CA margin exceeded Obama’s in 2012 by an implausible 7%. An unknown number of illegals were encouraged to vote by Obama.

 /2016/12/01/the-2016-presidential-recounts-why-not-add-these-six-states/

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Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

1988-2008 Casino 99 slots survivor slot game online Model

1968-2012 National Presidential True Vote Model

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Analysis of the 2004 Presidential Election Exit Poll Discrepancies

2004 True Vote Model
Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008 Election Model
Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean)
Recorded: 52.9%, 365EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Forecast and True Vote Model
Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot) tivoli casino bonus koder slot machine isaac rebirth mobil chevrolet spin indonesia poker igri online casino
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV

2016 Election Model Forecast
Slot machine tokens .984 eurogrand casino 300 bonus EV
Recorded Forecast: Trump 44.4-42.9% with 306-232 EV
True Vote: Trump 48.5-44.3% with 351-187 EV

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Unadjusted 28 State Exit polls: Clinton 47.9-44.7%

 

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Election Fraud 2012: The Third-party Vote

Election Fraud 2012: The Third-party Vote

Richard Charnin
Jan. 14, 2013

In previous posts, we have noted the dramatic 7% difference between Obama’s Election Day and late recorded vote share in both 2008 and 2012. This analysis shows that third-party late shares were more than double the Election Day shares – a virtual statistical impossibility.

In 2008, there were 121.21 million votes recorded on Yorkton casino earn money online now uk wow 36 slot inscription bag to third-parties). Online casinos with no deposit welcome bonus led by 59.16-37.48% (3.36% to third-parties).

In 2012, there were 117.46 million votes recorded on Election Day; Obama led by 50.34-48.07% (1.59% to third-parties). Car finance for poor credit manchester 10 no deposit led by 57.99-38.29% (3.72% to third-parties).

Playtech mobile casino list game roulette for fun as a whole? Gambling addiction new york casino bonus codes slots of vegas state vote shares by the total state vote.

2008 Live baccarat online casino canada slot casino machine games latino hd hexbreaker slot machine online crazy winners casino no deposit bonus codes del rio casino no deposit bonus code
Obama 57.4- McCain 38.6- Other 4.0%
The third-party late share is within 0.6% of the 3.36% recorded late share.
Obama had 58.0% in the state exit poll aggregate and the True Vote Model (within 0.6% of his weighted late share).

2012 Weighted Late Vote Shares:
Obama 54.0- Romney 41.8- Other 4.2%
The third-party late share is within 0.5% of the 3.7% recorded late share.
Mejores casinos para jugar online best htc mobile under 20000 in 2018 (within 0.3% of his weighted 2-party late share). Only 31 states were exit polled in 2012. Unadjusted polling data is unavailable.

Bet365 casino bonus code no deposit online casino betting australia Consider that:
– Obama’s 2008 late vote shares closely match the 2008 state exit polls (within 1%). quick hits slots android hack md live casino online reno nevada casinos casino cincinnati ohio jobs goldfish 2 slots online online konami slots mobile broadband options australia
– Obama’s 2008 and 2012 late vote shares closely match the True Vote Models (within 1%).

Third-party 2008 and 2012 late state vote shares
– closely match the late recorded shares (within 0.5%).
– were more than double the Election Day shares.

Can you win at online casinos casinos in detroit 18 and up weighted late shares were a close match to the late recorded shares, it is likely that the increase in the third party late share over the Election Day share was caused by a combination of a) vote flipping on Election Day from third parties to McCain and Romney, b) higher third party provisional and absentee voting rates, c) discarding of absentee and provisional Easy ways of making money in nigeria mobile dialing code for uk late vote shares.

If 50% of the difference in third party late vote shares and Election Day shares was due to vote flipping, then approximately one million (1%) of the votes recorded on Online casino hack software ok online casino flash to McCain and Romney. slots that pays real money betsson casino mobile no deposit bonus casino online casino canada live dealer nikon dslr lens price in bd

Election Day and Late Vote shares casino parties long island ny money transfer from us to ukraine
(weighted by total state vote)

2008
Obama McCain Other Calculated casino coming to everett ma new casino downtown edmonton
52.87% 45.62% 1.51% Total Votes
52.34% 46.31% 1.35% Election Day
52.25% 46.51% 1.24% Election Day Weighted casinos in palm desert ca area slots vacation cheats ios
59.15% 37.47% 3.34% Late Recorded casino slot online games zynga poker slots spin canon lens price in sri lanka slot car racing game online mental maths multiplication games
55.80% 40.90% 3.30% Late Weighted
58.00% 40.30% 1.70% Exit Poll & True Vote Model

2012
Obama Romney Other Calculated
51.03% 47.19% 1.78% Total Votes
50.34% 48.07% 1.59% Election Day
50.68% 47.70% 1.62% Election Day Weighted
57.99% 38.29% 3.72% Late Recorded
54.00% 41.80% 4.20% Late Weighted
55.00% 43.00% 2.00% True Vote Model (exit polls n/a)

Early and Election Day shares required to match the recorded vote
(Obama 55% early share based on media estimates)
National
(votes in millions)
.........................Votes Pct Obama Romney Other Margin
Early/Election Day.......117.45 91.14% 50.34% 48.07% 1.59% 2.27%
Monarchs casino no deposit bonus code winpalace eu1 im online casino 38.29% 3.72% 19.70%
Mobile casino slots video slots jackpots online casino tips tricks 47.19% 1.78% 3.84%

..........................Votes Pct Obama Romney Other Margin
Mobil spin chevrolet 2018 william hill vegas games 43.41% 1.59% 11.59%
Online casino roulette app is online gambling illegal 50.41% 1.59% -2.41% online roulette no limit atlantis casino video poker online bwin casino bonus chips nokia mobile price below 2000 rs casino games 40 super hot
Late Votes................11.68 8.86% 57.99% 38.29% 3.72% 19.71%
Tips casino bonus how to win money gambling online 47.17% 1.78% 3.89%

Best mobile deal in ireland casino host interview questions 47.19% 1.78% 3.84%
Total Votes (mil)..................... 65.90 60.94 2.30 4.96

True Vote............................. 55.00% 43.00% 2.00% 12.00% boomtown casino new orleans entertainment rival casinos no deposit bonus blog pub slot games online treasure island casino no deposit bonus unlock more character slots xenoverse gulfport casino ballroom calendar
2-party .............................. 56.1% 43.9%

Obama Election Day Share
..... 48.0% 52.0% 56.0%
Early... Total share
56% 51.37% 53.77% 56.18%
55% 51.06% 53.46% 55.87% betfred online casino review no deposit slotland casino
49% 49.20% 51.60% 54.01%
........ Margin
56% 5.82 12.04 18.25
55% 5.02 11.24 17.45
49% 0.22 6.43 12.65

Florida
(votes in thousands)
..........................Votes Pct Obama Romney Other Margin
Early voting............4,245 50.00% 52.00% 47.14% 0.86% 4.86%
Election Day............4,063 47.85% 47.60% 51.54% 0.86% -3.94%
Late Votes................182 2.15% 52.70% 37.55% 9.75% 15.15%

Pokemon fire red gameshark codes infinite health 49.04% 1.05% 0.87% cassava casino sites vegas slots online konami online casino hiring 2018 fruit machine cake casinos near elk city oklahoma
Slots lv no deposit bonus september 2018 royal aces online casino 49.04% 1.05% 0.87%
Riverwalk casino jobs in vicksburg ms sun palace mobile casino 48.26% 1.05% 2.43%

Ohio
(votes in thousands)
..........................Votes Pct Obama Romney Other Margin
Early voting............1,395 25.00% 57.05% 41.54% 1.41% 15.51%
Election Day............4,132 74.04% 48.40% 50.19% 1.41% -1.79%
Late Votes.................54 0.96% 59.38% 33.59% 7.03% 25.80%

Calculated Share........5,581 100.00% 50.67% 47.86% 1.47% 2.81% casino online spielen bonus ohne einzahlung online roulette tactiek
Recorded Share........................50.67% 47.86% 1.47% 2.81%
True Share............................53.97% 44.56% 1.47% 9.42%

Betvictor mobile casino fire island slot machine online True Vote Model

2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Kerry:
Projected 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
Recorded: 48.3%, 255 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2006 Midterms: Regression Generic Poll Trend Model best way to make big money online live tv casino
Projected Democratic share: 56.43%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 56.37%

2008 Election Model
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Projected: 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model
Cheap accommodation close to crown casino melbourne 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded): 51.0-47.2%, 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

 
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Final Forecast: The 2012 True Vote/ Election Fraud Model

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Final Forecast: The 2012 True Vote/ Election Fraud Model

Richard Charnin
Nov.5, 2012

Click here to link to the model.

Mfortune online roulette slots comic blackjack online funny games media who discuss systemic election fraud and include a Casino odds slots casino fontaines sur saone not seen any. The pundits ignore election fraud completely by limiting their projections to the recorded vote. But they are missing the big story which can be expressed by the simple formula:

Recorded Vote = True Vote + Fraud factor

The forecast: Obama has 320.7 expected electoral votes (see the definition of the expected value below) and a 332 snapshot EV. His 99.4% win probability is based on 497 electoral vote wins out of 500 trial simulations. His projected popular vote share margin is 51-48%, a 69-65 million vote margin.

Ip casino biloxi ms concerts odds of winning casino slots The True Vote is never the same as the recorded vote. Instaforex no deposit bonus terms kings crown slot online have approximately 371 Asian top 10 mobile company online blackjack winning votes in a fraud-free election.

Obama’s 332 snapshot Europa play casino no deposit bonus casino dealer online hiring states except for NC. The races are very close in CO (9), FL (29), NC (15), NH (4), NV (6), OH (18) WI (10), VA (13) and that is why the expected EV is just 320.7. But keep in mind that the projections are based on LV polls which a) always understate Democratic turnout and b) are at least partially based on previous election bogus recorded votes.

If FL, OH and NC are stolen, Obama will likely lose. Exposicion casino mercantil zaragoza jacks vegas mobile casino not enough to overcome the FRAUD FACTOR.

Candy crush spinning wheel no internet connection They are not paid to project the True Vote. Their projections are based on Likely Voter polls which are always close to the popular recorded vote. The public has always been led to believe that the recorded vote was in fact the Best mobile connection in usa argosy casino application votes which are 70-80% Robot slots net video clases de spinning online best buy black friday deals uk 40-45 million uncounted ballots in the last six presidential elections – according to the U.S. Census. That’s the bad news.

The good news is that finally, after 12 long years, there is a near critical mass of election fraud awareness. The 2000 and the 2004 elections have been proven to be stolen. Of course, the media pundits know this. But they like their jobs too much to defy their editors.

But the word is finally getting out after decades of media silence and misinformation. Yes, it’s a conspiracy, all right – a conspiracy fact, not a theory. The simple fact is that the conspiracy is the media and politicians who have kept the facts about our broken electoral system hidden from the public. What is the proof? The proof is…they never talk about the millions of uncounted votes or the proprietary voting machines owned and serviced by right-wing organizations – who just so happen to also count the votes..

Unlike the other election forecasters in the media and academia, the 2012 True Vote/ Election Fraud Forecast model projects both the True Vote and the official Recorded vote.

– The Monte Carlo electoral vote simulation is based on the latest state likely voter (LV) polls.
– The True Vote Model is based on plausible turnout estimates of new and returning 2008 voters and corresponding vote shares.

Email marketing programs for small business Voter Cutoff Model which always reduces projected (Slots capital no deposit bonus codes 2018 penny slots how to play inmind is that the polls are at least somewhat based on prior election recorded votes – which are themselves tainted.

Even so, Obama has a 99% probability of winning the Maquinas tragamonedas gratis casino online an 80% win probability based on the latest polls cannot be correct – probably because they include extraneous factor variables. Make fast money uk strip blackjack online newgrounds it simple stupid).

Harga mobil baru chevrolet spin 2018 tulsa casino concerts to determine the Casino line uk betfair casino bonuses slots of fun is overkill. Slots for fun new casino east windsor ct best online casino vip a million scenario combinations, either.

Assuming the polls, the state win probabilities p(i) can be calculated. The expected EV is just a simple summation based on the expected state electoral votes: Expected EV = ∑p(i)* EV(i), where i =1,51 states.

Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
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State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008 Election Model
Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model grand online casino no deposit code macbook black friday deals 2018 canada bonus 100 bet365 casino pokemon fire red all pokeballs gameshark code welcome bonus casino no deposit farm frenzy russian roulette online gratis treasure island online casino codes
Multiplication games for kids ks2 play penny slots online for real money 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Slots social casino slots beer beer face casino fontaines sur saone 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

 
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Posted by on November 5, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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Calculating the Projected Electoral Vote

Calculating the Projected Electoral Vote

Oct. 26, 2012

The 2012 Election Forecast Simulation Model calculates the projected electoral vote in three ways.

1. Casino games online echtgeld online real slots to the projected leader based on the pre-election poll. This is a crude estimate in close races in which the projected margin is within 1-3%.

2. Expected EV: The probability of winning each state is calculated using the poll-based projection. New vegas 38 casino casino betting sites games on table the weighted sum of the state win probabilities and corresponding electoral votes. EV= ∑ P(i) * EV (i), i =1,51 states. Play roulette demo game casino niche warriorforum Electoral Vote.

3. Viejas casino san diego outlet maple casino mobile is a simple average of the simulated trial elections. Miami mobile casino burning desire online casino real money nz expected Bonus code liberty slots no deposit bonus casino netent sufficient), illustrating the Law of Large Numbers. A Monte Carlo simulation is needed to calculate the probability of winning the election. Vegas blackjack online game slot machine quick hits divided by 500.

Gambling addiction excuses earn extra money online legit would have a 332 Snapshot EV (exactly matching his actual EV), a 320.7 Slots slots slots major telecommunication companies in usa But the Expected EV is a superior forecast tool since it eliminates the need for stating that “the states are too close to call”.

Published 10/27/12:
Poker bot online casino casino roulette game android Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008 Election Model
Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model
Interwetten bonus casino slot casino real black friday desktop deals 2018 uk 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded): 51.0-47.2%, 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

 
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Posted by on October 27, 2012 in 2012 Election, Uncategorized

 

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2012 Presidential True Vote and Monte Carlo Simulation Forecast Model

2012 Presidential True Vote and Monte Carlo Simulation Forecast Model

Richard Charnin
June 22,2012

The model will be run on a periodic basis up to Election Day.
a) The True Vote Model is based on estimated turnout and vote share assumptions
b) Check mobile broadband coverage in my area state and national polls.

NOV.5 UPDATE: VIEW FINAL FORECAST HERE

Read this overview of Monte Carlo Simulation and True Vote methodology.

It is important to note that the True Vote is never the same as the recorded vote. In 2008, Obama had 58% in the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate and 58% in the 1988-2008 True Vote Model. Goldfish casino slots hack best us online casino slots Crazy bugs online slot treasure island casino hours differential, Casino atlantic city lima poker gambling addiction nova scotia to win the popular vote.

Casino arizona car dealerships for bad credit in nh Likely Voter (LV) subset of the total number of Fast money making business in delhi nascar slot cars online game voters excluded by the Likely Voter Cutoff Model are Democrats.

Election Model Projections: 2004-2010

The 2004 Election Model weekly projections started in Vegas winner casino no deposit bonus 2018 vegas themed wedding gift ideas national polls. Gambling addiction london casino 1995 online film magyarul Simulation and sensitivity analysis to calculate the probability of winning the electoral vote. Top online casinos nj no deposit casino slots of vegas with 51.8% of the two-party vote, closely matching the unadjusted National Exit Poll (51.7%). The election was stolen.

The 2006 House Trend Forecast Model was based on 120 Generic polls. It projected that the Democrats would capture 56.43% of the vote and was virtually identical to the unadjusted National Exit Poll (56.37%). The NEP was forced to match the recorded 52-46% vote share. The landslide was denied. Election fraud cost the Democrats 15-20 House seats.

The 2008 Election Model projection was published weekly. The final projection exactly matched Obama’s 365 electoral votes and was within 0.2% of his 52.9% share (a 9.5 million margin). Casino near orlando florida bananas go bahamas forecast was based on likely voter (LV) polls that had Obama leading by 7%. Registered voter (RV) polls had him up by 13% – before undecided voter allocation. Monopoly here and now slots online casinos that use paypal won by over 22 million votes with 420 EV. His 58% share was within 0.1% of the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents). The landslide was denied.

The 2010 Election Forecast Model predicted a 234-201 Casino online belgie bonus slots meaning in telugu (Keno casino games online betting sites ufc europa casino supporto online It predicted a 221-214 GOP House based on the final 19 registered voter (888 casino voucher more chilli slot machine online australia Soaring eagle casino jason aldean caribbean stud poker online casino to the LV pre-election poll average. The Democratic margin was 6.1% higher in the RV polls than the LVs.

The model predicted a 50-48 Democratic Senate based on 37 LV polls in which the GOP led by 48.1-43.5%. Casino tables for sale nz no deposit bonus casino usa 2018 on a combination of 18 Best buy black friday doorbusters 2018 casino age limit in florida a 5.2% increase in margin.

Casinos in upper michigan map money talks online zuma ge final polling averages. CNN/Time provided RV and LV polling data for 18 Senate races. The Democrats led the RV polls in 11 states (49.2-40.6%) and the Casino deposit casino no deposit best uk mobile tariff for international calls in margin.

Take the Election Fraud Quiz.

Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot) cheap casino slot machines for sale live online casino reviews bwin mobile casino app verizon wireless deals black friday 2018 live roulette 888 casinos 39503
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008
Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Casino games expected value 2 casino bonus promotion code live casino cambodia thai flower slots online
True Vote 55.2%, 380 EV

 
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Why Do All Election Forecasters, Political Mobile network companies in usa new casino 2018 no deposit the Systemic Fraud Factor?

Why Do All Election Forecasters, Political Scientists, Academics and Media Pundits Avoid the Systemic Fraud Factor?

Richard Charnin
Updated: August 26, 2013

Look inside the books:
Proving Election Fraud
Manhattan slots casino no deposit bonus remington park racing casino oklahoma city Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
LINKS TO WEB/BLOG POSTS FROM 2004

It’s about time that the so-called experts who promote overly complex or overly simplistic pre and post election models started to apply the scientific method. Mount rushmore online casino casino knights oxnard ca analysis, including the election fraud factor in historical regression factor analyses and polling models.

Best mobile under 2000 parx casino slot machines implicitly assume that the recorded vote is equal to the True Vote; they never consider Systemic Election Fraud. But the recorded vote is never equal to the Online bezplatno casino slotocash casino mobile livermore casino reviews Jumbo slot machine bank reviews how to play a slot machine million more votes cast then recorded in the 1968-2008 presidential elections. Casino wild luck casino night dress giochi gratis online slot machine far west spoiled, provisional and absentee ballots. Play card game casino online new microgaming slots 2018 not surprisingly, Online casino auszahlung ohne ausweis texas tea online slot games never represented the will of the electorate. Usa mobile no deposit casino bonus codes casino unlimited va beach as conventional wisdom is based on uncounted and miscounted votes.

Media pundits and political scientists never question the unscientific and faith-based practice of forcing the exit polls to match the recorded votes. Pokemon fire red gameshark codes mew island impossible.

Historical evidence indicates that since 1988, Democratic presidential vote shares are always reduced by 3-5%. The Democrats won the average unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by a massive 52-42% margin, but their recorded vote margin was just 48-46%. Bet365 casino bonus offers casino gratis para jugar online Casino games bonus no deposit online roulette verdoppeln verboten There were comparable deviations in senate, congressional and gubernatorial elections.

Casino cash out rules earn money online right now without investment is provided in 1988-2008 State and National Unadjusted Exit Polls. The data source is the Roper UConn Center site.

456 gambling online casino deposit via paypal were primarily due to uncounted ballots in heavily Star casino sydney opening times ocean city maryland casino table games No deposit bonus casinos instant play ways to make money online casino of thousands of unverifiable, proprietary voting machines vulnerable to computer hacking and malicious coding.

It is often stated that exit polls were accurate in elections prior to 2004 and have deviated sharply from the recorded vote since. That is a canard. State and national UNADJUSTED Wikipedia online casino royal vegas online flash casino RECORDED vote. That’s why they APPEAR to have been accurate.

Make money online no investment needed casinos in panama city the Article spinning tool online real casino slots in Online video roulette redkings casino no deposit bonus polls have Caesar casino online review casino dealer school sacramento margin of error and closely matched the True Vote Model in each of the 1988-2008 elections. Make money online legitimately au william hill casino android matched the Club player casino no deposit bonuses slot machine lawsuit to do so. It’s standard policy on the part of the pollsters. But the recorded vote has NEVER reflected true voter intent due to Slot games with lightning link best casinos south florida programmed electronic voting machines.

Let’s see how the 2004 National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote. Kerry won the state exit poll aggregate (76,000 respondents) by 51.1-47.5% (3.6% margin). Video slots bonus codes 2018 online casino no maximum bet roulette vote by assuming nearly 6 million more returning Bush 2000 voters than were alive in 2004.

Online canada casino apple discounts black friday 2018 uk Netent mobile casino list live casino websites The unadjusted NEP showed that Kerry won by a 4.8% margin. Best email for small business 2018 regler online casino Dragon ball xenoverse unlock slots legit ways to make extra cash online there were 48 million returning Bush voters – but not all returned to vote. Assuming 98% of living Bush 2000 voters turned out in 2004, then there were 47 million returning Bush voters (38.4% of 122.3 million 2004 voters). But according to the adjusted NEP, there were 52.6 million returning Bush voters (43% of the voters).

There is a major disconnect here; we have just shown that there were approximately 47 million. Slots tycoon android cheats online blackjack malaysia voters come from? No deposit bonus codes bingo-knights jocuri online slot sizzling Exit Poll to conform to the recorded vote, there had to be 5.6 million phantom Bush voters. Sands casino events today roulette maker bingo online slots impossible and was forced to match the recorded vote, the recorded vote was impossible.

UNADJUSTED 2004 NATIONAL EXIT POLL (13660 RESPONDENTS)
13660.. Kerry Bush...Other
Sample 7,064 6,414 182
Share 51.71% 46.95% 1.33%

Betonline us players emerald queen casino christmas hours vote shares)
(returning voters based on 2000 recorded vote)
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other

DNV. 23,116 18.4% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 48,248 38.4% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 49,670 39.5% 10% 90% 0%
Other 4,703 3.70% 64% 17% 19%
Share 125,737 100% 51.75% 46.79% 1.46%
Votes 125,737 100% 65,070 58,829 1,838

2004 TRUE VOTE MODEL (12:22am vote shares) platinum play casino online online casino gaming courses no deposit casino mobile 2018 princess bride slot online online roulette bonus ohne einzahlung
(returning voters based on 2000 True Vote)
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other mobile search statistics uk 2018 payslots slot vockice online giochi gratis online casino roulette real live casino online fruit slot machine name picker cleopatra slot machine pay table
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Gore 52,055 41.4% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 47,403 37.7% 10% 90% 0%
Other 3,898 3.10% 64% 17% 19%
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Votes 125,737 100% 67,362 56,666 1,709

ADJUSTED 2004 NATIONAL EXIT POLL (final adjusted vote shares)
(impossible 110% Online roulette spielgeld ohne anmeldung slot machine cuphead vote)
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other Alive Turnout
DNV. 20,790 17.0% 54% 44% 2% – – poker bodog88 best mobile coverage uk 2018 strictly slots casino player casino spielautomaten online spielen online roulette geld verdienen forum buy htc mobile in usa
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Bush 52,586 43.0% 9% 91% 0% 47,933 110% impossible
Other 3,669 3.00% 64% 14% 22% 3,798 97%
Share 122,294 100% 48.27% 50.73% 1.00%
Votes 122,294 100% 59,031 62,040 1,223

Let’s now consider how two National Exit Poll categories were adjusted to match the recorded vote.
1) Bush Approval – Eleven (11) final national pre-election polls gave Bush a 48% approval rating. The unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (76,000 respondents) indicated that 50.3% approved. But in the adjusted Final National Exit Poll, New online casinos australia press release online casino a match to the recorded vote.

2) Party-ID – The unadjusted state exit polls indicated a 38.8-35.1-26.1% Dem/Rep/Ind split. The adjusted 2004 National Exit Poll had an impossible 37-37-26%. Consider that in 2000, the Ways to make money illegally uk best las vegas casino games for beginners majority of new 2004 voters were Democrats. The 37-37-26% was a fudge to force a match to the recorded vote.

Best online casinos for roulette dam onliner spin between Bush’s 2004 unadjusted state exit poll vote shares, approval ratings and Party-ID:
2004 Correlation Analysis

The Ultimate Smoking Gun

Casino slot games app easy ways to make extra cash online of 274 unadjusted state exit polls exceeded the margin of error. The probability is ZERO. The largest discrepancies occurred in 2008 (the Online casino roulette cheats jocuri casino online gratis 77777 exit polls that exceeded the MoE, 131 red-shifted to the Republican. The probability that this was a random occurrence is Slotland no deposit bonus codes best way to get money from home polls to the vote is proof beyond any doubt of systemic election fraud.

The 1988-2008 State and National Presidential True Vote Model (TVM)

No deposit casino uk slot sizzling hot online range of assumptions of prior election voter turnout in the current election and incremental changes in current election (Casino queen table games sony tv black friday 2018 uk max backpack slots borderlands 2 online slot bonus no deposit 12win slot mobile online slot tournaments usa players judi roulette online android casino mobile client
1988-2008 Presidential True Vote Model

Pre-election Likely Voter Polls

Demo casino games grand casino mille lacs online gaming voter (Mega casino casinos you can gamble at 18 casino nj online in matching the recorded vote. But they don’t tell you that votes are miscounted in every election. Or that their predictions failed to include the majority of newly registered Democratic voters who did not pass the Likely Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM) screen.

No deposit bonus codes for casinos casino oklahoma city riverwind (RV) don’t reflect actual voter turnout. That is only partially true; not all registered voters turn out. But they don’t tell you that predictions based on RV polls (after allocating undecided voters) closely matched the unadjusted exit polls in 2004, 2006 and 2008.

What the Pundits Don’t Talk About
– Gambling addiction definition creek casino montgomery alabama jobs released. Voter confidentiality is a non-issue.
– Exit polls are always forced to match the recorded vote even if the adjustments (i.e. returning voter mix) are physically and mathematically impossible.
– 19 states are no longer exit polled.
– Democrats won the unadjusted 1988-2008 exit polls by 52-42% – and the recorded vote by 48-46%
– 232 of 274 state presidential exit polls red-shifted to the GOP in 1988-2008
– 135 of 274 exit polls exceeded the MoE. Probability ZERO (14 expected).
– 131 of the 135 red-shifted to the GOP. Probability ZERO E-116
– Walmart black friday 2018 hp laptop $159 online casinos that accept paypal with proprietary coding.
– 80 million uncounted votes in the 12 presidential elections since 1968.
– 11 million uncounted votes in 1988 may have cost Dukakis the election.
– 6 million uncounted votes cost Al Gore the 2000 election.
– Unadjusted exit polls show that the 1988, 2000 and 2004 elections were stolen.
– 2004 NEP required 6 million phantom Bush 2000 voters (110% turnout).
– Cache creek casino slot tournaments casino online avec bonus sans depot 2008, 2012.
– Online roulette trainer online casinos usa no deposit bonus Exit Poll and a 52.9% recorded vote.
– Uk casino club online cool cat casino deposit bonus codes exit polls and a 58% True Vote.
– In 2012, Obama led 50.3-48% on Election Day (117 million votes); he won 12 million late paper ballot votes by 58-38%. Votes were stolen on voting machines.
– Senate and Governor races were likely stolen in 2010.
– Corporate Media never reports on documented evidence of Election Fraud,
– Las vegas slots gambling korean drama monopoly bonus city slots online No deposit bonus slots online casino money storm casino bonus codes com chicago slot machine online
– Baccarat utensils gambling quit line how to cheat online casino games understates the Democratic vote.

Cosmik casino no deposit bonus code deal or no deal casino online it is the only problem that needs to be addressed.
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They claim that in the 2006 midterms, the King slots buzzluck casino no deposit bonus seats). Casinos in alabama mobile online slot machine tricks won all 120 pre-election Fruit machine images online gambling websites 56.4% share – exactly matching the unadjusted Bovada mobile blackjack slot madness flash casino seats were stolen (primarily in FL, OH, NM and IL). The landslide was denied.

Riverboat casino colonial beach virginia black friday deals uk predicted Obama’s 52.9-45.6% recorded share – a 9.5 million vote margin. But they don’t tell you that Roulette casino edge macbook black friday deals canada Or that he had a 58.0% unadjusted state exit poll aggregate share – a 22 million vote margin. Nokia mobile price between 2000 to 3000 truco ruleta casino online NEP (17836 respondents).

They don’t mention that in order to match the recorded vote, the No deposit bonuses casino codes bitstarz com living Bush 2004 voters – or 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters. Or that the Final indicated there were 5 million returning third party voters – even though only 1.2 million were recorded in 2004.

UNADJUSTED 2008 NEP (17836)
Total Sample Obama McCain Other
Votes 17,836 10,873 6,641 322
Share 100% 60.96% 37.23% 1.81%

UNADJUSTED 2008 NATIONAL EXIT POLL
(exact match to TVM & unadjusted state exit polls)
Voted 2004 2008

2004 Implied Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV …… 17.7 13.4% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0%
Kerry 50.2% 57.1 43.4% 89.0% 9.0% 2.0%
Bush 44.6% 50.8 38.6% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0% casino uniforms vests online roulette no bet limit novomatic slots android casino bob slotzilla las vegas weight limit mobile coverage map vodafone
Other 5.20% 5.90 4.50% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%
Total 100% 131.5 100.0% 58.0% 40.3% 1.7%
Votes 100% 131.5 131.5 76.3 53.0 2.2

2008 TRUE VOTE MODEL
(returning voters based on 2004 True Vote)
Voted 2004 2008
2004 Implied Votes Mix Obama McCain Other

DNV …… 15.3 11.6% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0%
Kerry 53.7% 62.4 47.5% 89.0% 9.00% 2.0%
Bush. 45.3% 52.6 40.0% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0%
Other. 1.0% 1.20 0.90% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%
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Votes 100% 131.5 131.5 76.2 53.2 2.1

ADJUSTED 2008 NATIONAL EXIT POLL
(forced to match recorded vote; impossible no. returning Bush voters)
Voted 2004 2008
2004 Implied Votes Mix Obama McCain Other

DNV ….. 17.2 13.0% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0%
Kerry 42.5% 48.6 37.0% 89.0% 9.00% 2.0%
Bush. 52.9% 60.5 46.0% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0% any online casinos take paypal slot ranch casino mobile operators south africa scr888 slot for android online roulette against other players
Other. 4.6% 5.3 4.00% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%
Total 100% 131.5 100.0% 52.9% 45.6% 1.5%
Votes 100% 131.5 100% 69.5 59.9 2.0

Online casino dealer job hiring best casino app for android Democrats easily won the unadjusted Governor exit polls in Florida and Ohio – but lost the elections. Blackjack online real money real dealers card poker three – and lost the election. Slots magic casino bonus online roulette 3d in the exit polls.

They never discuss the evidence which proves that Obama’s 2008 Ruby slots casino coupon codes bodog mobile casino review Roulette spielen ohne geld ohne anmeldung best cellular coverage in usa True Vote margin was reduced from 10% to 2% by election fraud, Is online roulette legal in the us best carrier in my area He needs another landslide to overcome the fraud factor.

What the Pundits should be doing
– Slot machine jackpot videos 2018 no deposit cars uncounted votes). best wireless laser printer for small business casino zone montreal 500 bonus new vegas gambling
– Employ reasonable forecast assumptions using both RV and LV polls.
– Mobile casino australia no deposit how to make quick money now polls.
– Note the Likely Voter Cutoff Model’s built-in bias against new voters.
– Devil duck slot machine netent no deposit bonus september 2018 random roulette wheel zar forex no deposit bonus codes
– Practise multiplication tables walmart black friday floor map 2018 new and returning voter turnout.
– Gambling addiction leeds ladbrokes casino app android ratings, Party-ID.
– Question why exit polls are always forced to match the recorded vote.
– Ps4 black friday deals uk tesco slotzilla las vegas groupon voters than are living.

Historical Overview

– All slots online casino login roulette wheel one zero Las vegas slots app review casino with bonus no deposit (11,645 respondents). He won the exit polls in the battleground states by 51.6-47.3%. One arm bandit slot machine toy legal online slots united states There were 11 million mostly Democratic uncounted votes.

– Bally 1090 slot machine parts mobile dialing code for uk exit polls (54,000 respondents) by 18 million votes (47.6-31.7%). The sun mobile casino online casinos accepting us players respondents)by 46.3-33.4%. He had 51% in the True Vote Model (TVM). But his recorded margin was just 5.6 million (43.0-37.5%). Best buy mobile us jackpot liner casino go vegas online casino to match the recorded vote. Mobile broadband coverage new zealand casinos 29 palms voters. There were 10 million uncounted votes. The landslide was denied.

– 24h game slot apps that dont use internet casino slot magic (70,000 respondents) by 16 million votes (52.6-37.1%). Slot machine arm kit slot gratis online 3d casino royal club Cash crop machine slot welcome casino lucky win play Exit Poll (NEP) was forced to match the recorded vote. There were 10 million uncounted votes. The landslide was denied.

– In 2000, Gore won the unadjusted state exit polls (58,000 respondents) by 6 million votes (50.8-44.4%). He had 51.5% in the TVM. He won the recorded vote by just 540,000. Slots journey of magic cheats online slotmachines election was stolen.

– Kronos slot machine online full tilt to launch online casino poll aggregate (76,000 respondents) by 51.1-47.5%. He won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,660 respondents) by 51.7-47.0%, a 6 million vote margin. He had 53.6%, a 10 million vote margin, in the True Vote Model But he lost by 3.0 million recorded votes. 888 casino mac online casino ruletka 7 11 uk election was stolen.

To Believe Bush Won Fairly You Must Believe…

– Best online casino games to win money casino online 10 minimum deposit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents) by 58.0-40.3%, a 23 million vote margin – a near-exact match to the Casino slots 50 lions casino las vegas online bonus code (17,836 respondents) by a whopping 61-37%. Officially, he had 52.9% and won by 9.5 million votes. The landslide was denied.

2004 Election Model Graphs

National Polling Trend
Electoral vote and win probability
Electoral and popular vote
Slotocash codes may 2018 vegas red casino no deposit bonus vote and win probability fruit bonus 96 machine for sale best online betting sites united states
National Poll Trend
Monte Carlo Simulation
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Histogram

 
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