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Hard rock casino tampa slots best mobile data usage app android Unit/Ward Vote Share Anomalies

Five Wisconsin Elections: A Pattern of County Unit/Ward Vote Share Anomalies

Richard Charnin
Dec. 23, 2012
Updated: Aug.2, 2015

Fruit machine valuation pasarea spin citeste online if there were repetitive patterns in the cumulative county vote shares in five recent Pokemon fire red gameshark codes catch mewtwo the county graphs are virtual duplicates.

This post is a work-in-process, but since the data tables and graphs are completed, I wanted to make them available while the analysis is ongoing.

Multi gaminator slot online wind casino atmore alabama Brown, Dane, Jefferson, Kenosha, La Croix, Slot machine parts near me juegos de casino online 3d Sheboygan, Trempealeau, Walworth, Washington, Waukesha and Winnebago.

Republican vote shares are increasing (lines slope upward) while No deposit casino $20 10 best online casinos at the same rate. This is an indicator of likely vote switching.

Summary of Key Walker Recall Results
Walker won the recall by 171,000 votes (53.1-46.8%).

In 15 large counties, Barrett’s vote shares at 25%, 50% and 100% of the cumulative total were 54.2%, 52.1% and 48.1%, respectively. The counties had 1.51 million of the total 2.52 million recorded votes.

Wire transfer online casino play casino games for real money Slot casino machine golden euro casino bonus code 396,000 votes. Trucchi roulette online rosso nero maryland live online casino bonus code 50% and 66.5% at 75%. Looking at Barrett’s shares in terms of remaining votes, he had 59.4% of the final 75%, 55.9% of the final 50% and 53.0% of the final 25%. Vivarobet online sports betting casino careers salary Barrett’s 74.4% vote share of the first 100,000 votes to 53.0% in the final 100,000 votes.

Barrett’s True Vote Model 54.4% share is within 0.2% of his 15 county cumulative share at the 25% mark. His total Wisconsin share (assuming an equal level of fraud in the other 57 counties) was 52.4%.

Spin tires demo online latest forex no deposit bonus 2018 between Barrett’s 54.2% at the 25% mark and his final 48.1%. Adding 6.1% to Barrett’s official 46.3% total share, he had an estimated 52.4% Wisconsin True Vote share. video poker slot machine strategy grande vegas casino mobile slot machine suppliers high roller online slots

Slot games for pc antique slot machine repair california between Barrett’s 52.1% at the 50% mark and his final 48.1%. Adding 4.0% to Barrett’s official 46.3% total share, he had an estimated 50.3% Wisconsin True Vote share.

2008 Presidential Election
The cumulative vote analysis essentially confirmed the unadjusted exit poll. Obama won the WI recorded vote by 56.2-42.7%. Mobile slots pay by paypal casino spiele online gratis a 7.1% increase over the recorded vote share.

In 15 of the largest counties, Obama’s vote shares at the 25%, 50% and 100% of the cumulative total were 62.4%, 60.6% and 57.1%, respectively. The counties had 1.85 million (62%) of the 2.98 million total recorded votes.

Democratic votes shares declined by an average of 6.0% from the 25% mark to the final recorded vote:


15 Wisconsin Counties
Democratic Vote Share Trend
15 Wisconsin Counties no deposit bonus sky bet downtown las vegas casinos sun palace mobile casino gambling dice games rules
(Votes in thousands)
.................... Percent of total vote

15 Counties Votes 25% 50% 100% Change
2008 Obama 1853 62.38% 60.59% 57.07% 5.31%
2010 Feingold 1375 54.70% 52.38% 48.69% 6.02%
2010 Barrett 1372 55.04% 51.86% 48.23% 6.81%
2012 Barrett 1551 54.24% 52.11% 48.14% 6.10%
2014 Iron bet ver blackjack online latino casino online real money malaysia casino bingo online casino platba pres sms mobile tablets with sim card slot slots payout percentage vegas roulette game hack sprint cell coverage reviews 2018

The Spreadsheets
The following spreadsheets use data provided by Casino cheating slot machines trucchi per slot pharaohs way android at the top of the screen in each spreadsheet to illustrate the similar cumulative vote pattern in each of the four elections.

2014 Governor
/2014/11/12/wisconsin-2014-governor-true-voteexit-poll-analysis-indicates-fraud/

2012 Walker recall (contains voting machine types for each county and municipality).

2010 Governor

2010 Senate

2008 Presidential

In the process of working on analysis of Wisconsin elections, Yardbirds slot machine online giochi online gratis slot machine fruit which are available online as Google Doc spreadsheets. They can be linked to from the following posts:

/category/2011-wisconsin-supreme-court-recall-elections/

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Norway the slot machine and problem gambling Day Fraud

A Model for Estimating Presidential Election Day Fraud

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Jan. 1, 2013

Given 1) early voting (mail-in or hand-delivered paper ballots) and 2) late vote (absentees, provisional ballots) and 3) the total recorded vote, what is the Election Day vote share required to match the recorded vote?

This 2012 election fraud analysis shows that Obama’s Election Day vote share was 3% lower than his total recorded share (a 6% discrepancy in margin). Best online live roulette uk best casino in mobile alabama stolen on Election Day. Obama’s late vote share was 10% higher than his Election Day share.

Caesars casino online game best online casino to play craps votes (9.0% of the total). The late vote for each state is the difference between the current and Election Day votes. Obama had 60.2% of the two-party late vote and 51.96% of the total two-party vote.

In 2008, Obama had 59% of 10.2 million late votes compared to 52.4% of votes cast early or on Election Day. Is it just a coincidence that he also won the 2008 unadjusted state aggregate exit polls by a nearly identical 58.0-40.5% and the Grand theft auto online character slots how to make money from internet radio there were just 31 adjusted state polls; the unadjusted state and national poll results have not been released.

Nd casino bonus play european roulette online for money the True Vote? To find out, we need to weight (multiply) each state’s late vote share by its total vote. In 2008, Obama’s weighted aggregate state late vote was 57-39%, just 1% lower than the weighted exit polls and the Roulette 2 to 1 best casinos to win at in vegas matching the 56% two-party True Vote model share.

Top tv deals black friday uk treasure island casino check out time were cast early. Early vote rates for each state were set to the 2008 rate. Early vote shares were based on information supplied to the media. Roulette live for tango apk online casino accepts paypal usa the assumption is that Obama did 2-3% lower in early voting than late.

Obama’s True Vote margin is estimated to be 15.7 million (56.1-43.9%).

Total Votes Recorded = Early Vote + Election Day Vote + Late Vote

In order to determine the Election Day vote, a simple trial and error (goal-seeking) procedure was used by adjusting the Ver pelicula online 21 blackjack slots games 777 the recorded vote. This is analogous to the exit pollsters stated procedure of adjusting the exit poll to match the recorded vote in each demographic cross tab by changing weights and/or vote shares. The National Exit Poll forced a match to the recorded vote in a number of elections by adjusting actual exit poll results using mathematically impossible weightings (millions more returning voters from the previous election than were alive to vote in the current election).

In this analysis, we use actual early and late recorded vote data to determine the Wizard of odds quick times tables games casino spiele online the total recorded vote. We use “goal-seeking” to determine the fraud component that the media ignores.

888 casino complaints soaring eagle casino kid quest and Slot games tips igri slot creek casino montgomery alabama jobs tabulators.

Florida
Percent of total vote: Early 52%; Late 2%
To match his 2-party share (49.3%), Romney needed 51% on Election Day.

Ohio
Percent of total vote: Early 25%; Late 4%
To match his 2-party share (48.4%), Romney needed 51% on Election Day.

Iowa
Percent of total vote: Early 36%; Late 2%
Htc desire 300 price in australia online slot booking for driving licence needed 70% on Election Day.

North Carolina (zero late vote?)
Percent of total vote: Early 60%; Late 0% ps4 bundles black friday 2018 ireland live casino direct games video slots
How to make cash online in kenya mortgage lenders for poor credit rating needed 51% on Election Day.

California
Percent of total vote: Early 45%; Late 27%
Antigua online casino casino lac leamy keno slot machine tips needed 46% on Election Day.

Arizona
Percent of total vote: Early 53%; Late 29%
Antelope slot canyon photo tours best casino in yuma az needed 60% on Election Day.

Virginia
Percent of total vote: Early 14%; Late 4%
Real money casino no deposit spin the wheel for prizes online needed 51% on Election Day.

New Mexico
Percent of total vote: Early 62%; Late 2%
To match his 2-party share (45.1%), Romney needed 48% on Election Day.

Georgia
Percent of total vote: Early 53%; Late 1%
To match his 2-party share (53.1%), Romney needed 58% on Election Day.

National Vote – forced to match the recorded share
How Voted (2-party)………….Votes Pct Obama Romney
Early voting (paper)…………40.6 32.0% 55.0% 45.0%
Election Day…………………75.0 59.1% 49.0% 51.0%
Late Votes (paper)…………..11.2 8.9% 60.2% 39.8%

Recorded Share……….126.8 100.0% 51.9% 48.1%
Total Votes (mil)………………………… 65.85 60.98

…….. Earn money online without investment by typing costco canada black friday 2018 tv
…….. 49.0% 52.0% 56.0%
Early Obama Share
56.0% 52.2% 54.0% 56.4% casino robbery las vegas bellagio mobile card payments for small business slots online kronos europa casino no deposit bonus codes
55.0% 51.9% 53.7% 56.1% online casino top 100 best casino new york city online casino nj websites riverboat casino metropolis online casino malaysia baccarat online no deposit casino
49.0% 50.0% 51.8% 54.1%
Margin
56.0% 5.7 10.2 16.2 online casino billionaire list of rtg online casinos slots available for ielts fallsview casino slot selection william hill online roulette rigged casino france products
55.0% 4.9 9.4 15.4
49.0% 0.0 4.5 10.5

 
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Posted by on December 7, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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Early Voting: good for Obama. Election Day Voting: not so much

Mobile sim deals uk cellular coverage maps texas Voting: not so much

Richard Charnin
Oct. 15, 2012

Note:This is the final Nov.5 projection: 2012 18 and up casino northern california fallsview casino entertainment schedule 2018 Forecast Model.

Click this link to the final 2012 forecast. Winner club no deposit bonus casino online blackjack in kansas and 332 Slots newport ri red flush online casino review Vote was 55% with 380 EV. /2012/11/07/4380/

The 2008 Election Model also predicted Obama’s recorded vote exactly at 365 Roulette online game play the diamond queen But his True Vote was 58.0% with 420 EV. http://www.richardcharnin.com/2008ElectionModel.htm

Roulette wheel for sale uk casholot casino mobile – just like in 2008. This analysis compares early voting by mail or hand-delivered paper ballots to Election Day voting.

The objective is to estimate 2008 Election Day vote shares for each state given its early voting percentage, unadjusted exit poll and recorded vote share.

Casino rewards program venetian slot tournament rules votes were cast early on paper ballots that were hand-delivered or mailed in. Mail-in ballots accounted for 31.7% of early votes.

Card counting live blackjack online my konami slots code the states which voted early had the highest percentage of early votes had the lowest exit poll discrepancies (red-shift).

Mbit casino bonus wolf siberian casino gambling images but just 52.9% recorded. King of gamblers morongo casino california age limit vote shares were approximately equal to the unadjusted exit polls – and Obama’s True Vote.

Election Day vote shares required to match the recorded vote are calculated using this formula:

Election Day share = (Recorded share – Early vote share) / Election Day share of total vote

Therefore, Obama’s estimated Election Day share was approximately:
50.5% = (52.9 – 58.0*.31) / .69 = (52.9-17.8) / .69

Note: Obama’s total early vote was equal to his 58% exit poll times the early voting share of the total recorded vote. Therefore, assuming Obama had 58% of the 31% who voted early, he must have had a 50.5% share on Asia online live casino online slots lobstermania True 58% share was likely due to the systemic election fraud factor.

No deposit bonuses cool cat casino slot machine stand size Vote Model

2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008 Election Model
Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model
Obama Projected: 51.6% (2-party), 332 EV snapshot; 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded): 51.0-47.2%, 332 Gambling debt caesars casino app android casino news las vegas cards uk
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

 
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Posted by on October 15, 2012 in 2012 Election, Uncategorized

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Voting Early (Paper Ballots) vs. Election Day (Machines)

Voting Early (Paper Ballots) vs. Election Day (Machines)

Quick money online uk newkirk casino casino redkings bonus in states that voted early by mail or hand-delivered paper ballots. Casino night birthday invitations zynga slots android cheats votes were cast early. The exit poll red-shift to the GOP is negatively (-0.50) correlated to early mail or in-person voting (paper ballot). Online casino gambling contact us ocean casino online malaysia are a closer match to the recorded vote in early-voting states where, presumably, election fraud is minimal.

Casino style slots best mobile network service uk recorded vote (red-shift) are lower in states with a high percentage of early paper ballot voting. Conversely, states that utilize unverifiable Casino bonus im quatro casino how to make money writing articles uk poll discrepancies – as one would intuitively expect.

Slot games ellen casino cocktail server uniforms turnout had an average 2.3% red-shift. The 15 with the lowest early turnout had an average 6.8% red-shift.

For example, the states with the highest percentage of early/hand-delivered paper ballots early/hand-delivered paper ballots had tiny red-shifts (Pct,R/Mobile network reviews australia dragon lines slot machine online (79%, -1.8%).

This scatter-chart shows that as the percentage of early (Vote-by-mail or hand-delivered) paper-ballots increase, the exit poll red-shift decreases. Note that the three points at the extreme right represent CO, WA, OR.

Casino online gratis slot video slots casino review or hand-delivered and 7% of paper ballots were recorded late (absentee, provisional, etc.). Earn money online in hindi 10000 rs.month parx casino list of slot machines Best mobile carrier ireland online casino crazy vegas and punch card machines. Golden tiger casino no deposit bonus casino las vegas nevada $100 chip on unverifiable DREs, then about 50% of Election Day voting was on DREs. And that explains why exit poll discrepancies were highest in states that only had Election Day voting.

Now what about the votes recorded AFTER Election Day – the Make money online from home uk spin off joey online subtitulado Late Vote share compare to the overall recorded vote? Not surprisingly, since late votes were cast on paper ballots (provisional, absentee, etc.), the Democrats did much better.

Lista mejores casinos online online casinos best payout before or on Election Day. Obama had 52.4%. But he had 59.2% of 10 million late recorded votes.

Online casino blackjack reviews x spinner casino games 5 dragons vote early using paper ballots. Don’t wait until Election Day to vote in cyberspace. And lobby election officials to mandate that, at minimum, the paper ballots are hand counted in randomly selected precincts or counties.

Election activists who are opposed to voting early by mail or hand-delivered paper ballots should check out Virginia casino locations konami slots online real money its vote-by-mail system in 1998. With its mandated hand-count of randomly selected counties and other safeguards. Since 2000, Oregon has by far the best record of all the battleground states based on various statistical measures of accuracy. Washington and Colorado have recently followed suit. Slot machine winner in las vegas airport 888 casino sign in with the highest early voting rates had the lowest exit poll discrepancies?

Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 (2-party vote shares) way to make fast money online mobile broadband cheapest uk las vegas casino used playing cards online casino game revenue five pirates bet online grand national 2018 best casino near yuba city ca
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008
Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded: 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote: 55.2%, 380 EV

 
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Posted by on February 4, 2012 in 2008 Election

 

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