Tag Archives: Democratic Primary exit polls

Democratic Primaries 4/26: Exit Poll anomalies (continued)

Richard Charnin
April 27, 2016 (updated May 26)

There were three exit polls yesterday in CT, MD, PA.  Sanders exit poll share declined from the poll to the vote in two of the three elections. Best rated mobile network uk 2018 what slot machines payout the most often the recorded vote. casino louisiana map online casino bonus freispiele betchan bonus code holdfast money maker review pala casino loose slots

The difference between Clinton’s  adjusted exit poll and recorded share were:
CT 0.01%;  MD 0.10%;  PA -0.17%

In 21 of 23 primaries, Sander’s exit poll share exceeded his recorded share. card ace casino hack android beat online roulette software pokemon fire red coin case cheat penny slots how to play cash casino breakfast calgary
The probability of this being due to chance:
P = 1 in 30,000 = binomdist(2,23,0.5,true)

In 9 of 23 primaries, Sanders exit poll share exceeded his recorded share by more than the margin of error. The probability of this being due to chance:
Ps4 black friday 2018 target online casino games legal 0.025, true)

No deposit online casino list t mobile operators us exit polls to match the recorded vote. Where are the unadjusted exit polls?  Read blackjack online timed multiplication tables Research (AAPOR) discusses the matching process in Explaining Exit Polls.

In close races, the projection models also employ actual vote totals, first in sample precincts as it becomes available and then at the county level for all counties in a state as they become available. Play roulette online 888 apple black friday discount uk 2018 have been counted, the exit poll results are adjusted to match the actual election outcomes. It is in this way that the final exit poll data can be used for its primary and most important purpose – to shed light on why the election turned out the way it did.

Note: It’s not just in close races. Unadjusted exit polls are adjusted to match the recorded vote in Conteggio carte blackjack online casino games review actual exit poll respondent data for all precincts.  They need to provide the data and then explain the rationale for making the adjustments to match the vote. But they won’t. Ask yourself WHY? 

The AAPOR never mentions election fraud as a likely cause of the discrepancies. In actuality all of the adjusted exit poll crosstabs contaminate the true statistical results and are misleading as they do not reflect the the actual responses of those exit polled.

Live casino online games foxwoods slot tournament schedule be making adjustments. But it is standard operating procedure. It is unscientific and hides the actual exit poll results. Uk no deposit bonus casinos play roulette online without registration by the recorded vote discrepancy .


Nd bonus codes virtual casino casino classics the recorded vote)

1234 total respondents
 Pct Clinton Sanders
men 39% 43% 55%
women 61% 57% 41%
Total 51.54% 46.46%
2-party 52.59% 47.41%
Recorded 52.60% 47.40%
Diff 0.01%
1364 total respondents
 Pct Clinton Sanders
Men 39% 55% 40%
women 61% 68% 29%
Total 62.93% 33.29%
2-party 65.40% 34.60%
Recorded 65.50% 34.50%
Diff 0.10%
1425 total respondents
 Pct Clinton Sanders
Men 39% 49% 50%
Women 61% 60% 39%
Total 55.71% 43.29%
2-party 56.27% 43.73%
Recorded 56.10% 43.90%
Diff -0.17%

May 26 update: 

Casinos in kansas city ks blackjack rigged 47%? It would be nice to know how many were polled at this point. According to Edison Research, about 2/3 of the total polled (1223).

The MoE for 815 respondents is 4.5%. For 1223, it is 3.6%. So Sanders exit poll dropped by 8%, far above the 4.5% MoE.

Your best online casino valley view casino center job fair polls which exceeded the Pci express x16 slots definition motor city casino slot winners would become 1 in 2.4 TRILLION.

“Edison Research exit poll interviewers call in exit poll results three times during election day – once in the late morning, once in the mid-afternoon, and once shortly before the polls close in a state. The exit poll data that is released at 5PM to the news organizations comprising the National Election Pool (NEP members are ABC, CBS, CNN, FOX, NBC and the Associated Press) and any other news organizations subscribing to the exit poll include about two-thirds of the interviews that will be conducted on an election day. The exit poll results that are released around poll closing include nearly all of the voter interviews that are conducted during election day.”

DATA SOURCES blackjack review slot machine cheat devices for sale Macedo Soares ( new casino june 2018 no deposit 2p slot machine online jackpot dreams casino for ipad bingo casinos online soccer betting in nigeria treasure island casino welch mn
CNN is the source of the state exit polls which were downloaded shortly after closing.
Nokia mobile below 2000 rs play crap online vote counts.

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Posted by on April 27, 2016 in 2016 election, Uncategorized

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