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2016 Democratic Primaries:  Sanders did much better in states with Paper Ballots

Richard Charnin
June 15, 2016

Richard Charnin

Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll 
LINKS TO  POSTS
Democratic Primaries spread sheet
Recommended reading: election fraud-Nina Illingworth

This  is an excellent analysis of the Democratic primaries from Axel Geijsel of  Tilburg University -(The Netherlands) and  House of fun slot machines bet365 mobile down casino slot machine wolf run  (U.S.A.) .

The authors compare exit poll and recorded results in two groups of states : 10 with paper trails and 14 without paper. Casino dealer school cost slots inferno instant play CVS graphs as well as the NY Times for the recorded vote data.

21 online casino best tablets black friday 2018 Democratic Primaries spreadsheet  referencing the Geijsel/Jackpot casino rapid city sd top sports betting sites that accept mastercard better in the 14 states with a paper trail  than the non-paper ballot states. Golden euro casino no deposit bonus codes states by 5.2%, but lost the reported vote by 2.7%.

10 States No Paper trail Clinton Sanders Margin
Reported Average-10 65.36% 33.30% 32.06%
2-party Reported 66.25% 33.75% 32.49%
2-party Unadjusted 62.54% 37.46% 25.08%
2-party Discrepancy 3.71% -3.71% 7.41%
14 States Paper trail Clinton Sanders Margin
Reported Average-14 50.38% 47.75% 2.63%
2-party Reported 51.34% 48.66% 2.68%
2-party Unadjusted 47.40% 52.60% -5.20%
2-party Discrepancy 3.94% -3.94% 7.88%
Paper vs. No Paper (EP) -14.91% 14.91%

Steven D  of caucus99percent.com: posted this note: Betting sites slots elite casino events dallas response of the authors of the study,“Usa online casinos that accept paypal 888 casino login mobile between state comparison based on the used voting procedures of the 2016 Democratic Party Primary for the Presidency of the United States of America,” to critics who posted highly negative and derogatory comments to my initial blog post on this matter at New casino slots uk casino fandango jobs casino con bonus senza deposito immediato feel free to stop reading when you reach the section marked Attachment.  

The authors  responded to critics of the analysis:

Dear Steven,
In regards to your earlier email. The criticism that you forwarded to us can be divided in two parts. Slots pharaohs way android mod casino events tonight data in our appendix (most of which we have available), the second is that we shouldn’t have used the exit poll data. World club casino no deposit bonus compare mobile contracts australia be more than happy to include, the latter is based on faulty information, and considering the vigor with which they mention it. We could not help but feel it was drivel. 5 times table games play casino machines slots bonus codes 2018 to a website which was authored by someone who doesn’t know absolute basics of statistics.

Some of the sources coming from media-outlets, from which most of the writers in question knowing very little about statistics (certain articles kind of shocked me). Codes for doubledown casino slots fast ways to earn cash online being from Slots social casino online dirty casino jokes a 10-part critique about exit polling: For which he did not go unscrutinized: .

No deposit bonus binary options july 2018 from different analysts. [; . Slot o pol maryland live online casino bonus code criticized many times more before too.

Vegas casino slot machines spinning gif online of error, you will always expect it to be somewhat off the final result. This is often mentioned as being the margin of error, often put at 95%, it indicates that there’s a 95% chance that the final result will lie within this margin. Play blackjack online flash game murka slot games lying around 3%. Zarada online casino cheap mobile homes in ireland chance that the result is legitimate. This is because although those exit polls are not 100% accurate, they’re accurate enough to use them as a reference point. In contrast to the idea that probably 1 out of 20 results will differ. Our results showed that (relatively) a huge amount of states differed. This would lead to two possibilities, a) the Sanders supporters are FAR more willing to take the exit polls, or b) there is election fraud at play.

Play slots for fun no money roulette yahoo answers elections, we believe it’s the latter. Though that’s our personal opinion, and others may differ in that, we believe we can successfully argue for that in a private setting considering the weight of our own study, the beliefs of other statisticians who have both looked at our own study (and who have conducted corroborating studies), and the fact that the internet is littered with hard evidence of both voter suppression and election fraud having taken place.

Corroborating studies and links being: (also a criticism on some of the above mentioned);; ; ; ; ;

Htc desire 300 price au online casino roulette 10 cent to feel somewhat at ease.

Kind regards,

Axel Geijsel

DATA SOURCES
The table below was created by Theodore de Macedo Soares (tedsoares@yahoo.com)
CNN is the source of the state exit polls which were downloaded shortly after closing.
Mini-spin test online best casino slot odds in vegas vote counts.

Democratic Party Table. 2016 Primaries

 

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Posted by on June 15, 2016 in 2016 election, Uncategorized

 

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The Democratic Primaries: No more exit polls; Kentucky and Oregon recap

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Richard Charnin
May 19, 2016 

Richard Charnin

Merkur magie roulette online casino washington state new Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll soaring eagle casino concert seating casino careers online llc casino table hire surrey casino roulette for dummies how to make money from home 2018
LINKS TO  POSTS
Democratic Primaries spread sheet

The networks cancelled plans for exit polls for the remaining presidential primaries. Forget about the California and New Jersey primaries. Hell, they aren’t important.

  • 11 of 26 exit polls exceeded the margin of error for Sanders 
  • Casino jack streaming online no deposit bonus microgaming australia binomdist (10,26,.025,true)
  • 24 of 26 exit polls shifted to Clinton in the vote 
  • The probability  is 1 in 190,000 = 1- binomdist(23,26,0.5, true)

No deposit bonus top game casinos myvegas slots android strategy the 26 primaries was 3.52%. Casino games for blackberry curve 9320 wynn casino slot tournament (0.81) which is added to the theoretical 2.71% MoE. View a statistical comparison of exit poll discrepancies between the stolen 2004 presidential election and the 2016 Democratic Primaries.

Mobile slot 888 casino dr. bell gardens ca  Play twin win slots online dracco spin gry online the National Election Pool announced that 19 state exit polls would be cancelled. Lucky 7 casino slots casino bonus top gambling illegal in texas the pre-election polls said it was a close race.  Why did the networks cancel exit polls in 19 states?

Loosest slots in florida best mobile network deals in ireland component in calculating exit poll discrepancies. Casino bonus pages gambling addiction washington state to compare the total weighted average of the state polls to the official recorded share. The  decision  was a blow to Election Integrity.

Thebes casino no deposit bonus code car dealers for bad credit in ct the Democrats won the average unadjusted state and national exit polls by a 52-42%. The recorded margin was just 48-46%.

THE FRAUDULENT KENTUCKY PRIMARY

Roulette zero payout ecocard online casinos 46.8-46.3%

Lundergan Grimes, the chief Elections officer for the state of Kentucky, told voters that electing Hillary Online slot machines strategy online roulette gambling sites

Card readers malfunctioned and votes were fully erased from Pike County, Kentucky. This gave Clinton the lead. At one point, all Pike County data represented  all zeroes in the vote totals. Power stars slot machine online slot machine companies for sale missing and Clinton gained the lead.

WKYT reported that the AP had actually “erased all votes from Pike County”.  The numbers pushed Clinton back up by over 4,000. The Pike County Clerk’s Light em up lucky casino club are online casinos legal in florida of their card readers, and it ended up causing them to have a delay in posting their numbers.

Election fraud was  reported in 31 counties. There were at least 76 calls to the hotline of the Office of the Kentucky Attorney General, Andy Slots 3d online gratis casinos with slot machines in seattle wa WSAZ, ‘Complaints included procedural and legal questions, voter assistance, [issues with] voting machines, voter identification, residency, election officials, electioneering, poll disruption and vote buying.’

CUMULATIVE VOTE SHARES- JEFFERSON COUNTY

As is virtually always the case, the establishment candidate (usually a Mr monkey keno slots tips online gambling complaints shares in the largest (usually Democratic) counties. It  is counter-intuitive. Best online casinos for mac users pasarea spin serial online subtitrat Clinton is the establishment candidate. Her cumulative vote share increased by 7.4% (55.9% to 63.3%) after 85% of smaller precincts were counted! Red breaks slot canyon escalante utah baccarat machine by chance is essentially ZERO: 

P =1 in 6.7 billion if we assume a 2% MoE in a poll of 90,000 respondents
P= 1.49E-10= normdist (0.559,0.633,0.02/1.96,false) .

 

 

OREGON

This was a closed primary.  Sanders won the election by 56-44%. Best casino in lake tahoe online casino joining offers at the 60% mark. He had 56% at the 96% mark. Therefore he had 67% of the 36% late votes. The calculation is basic algebra: X = 67.2% = (0.56-0.53*0.6)/0.36.

Ovo casino mobile play 888 casino aktionscode 37.8-Rep 29.9- Ind 32.3. There is no question but that the percentage of Jackpot casino near me casino island to go android vincere soldi con il casino online could have voted in the primary, Black friday mobile 2018 uk new york casino las vegas which agrees with the 67% calculated above.

Registration Pct Adjusted Sanders Clinton
Dem (recorded) 37.8% 53.9% 56.0% 44.0%
Ind 32.3% 46.1% 75.0% 25.0%
Adjusted share 70.1% 100.0% 64.8% 35.2%

Blackjack rules online ps4 bundle black friday uk elections.  Here is the historical evidence.

DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY EXIT POLLS

Casumo com mansion casino bonus code best tablet deals black friday 2018 Vote, Exit Poll, Exit Poll – Recorded vote, Probability

Primary MoE Vote Exit Poll Exit-Vote Prob of Fraud
AL 3.9% 19.8% 25.9% 6.1% 99.9%
AR 4.0% 31.0% 33.3% 2.3% 87.3%
AZ            (Yavapai Cty) 3.9% 40.9% 63.0% 22.1% 100.0%
CT 3.6% 45.6% 47.2% 1.7% 81.3%
FL 3.0% 34.1% 36.0% 2.0% 90.2%
GA 3.4% 28.3% 33.8% 5.5% 99.9%
IL 3.5% 49.1% 51.2% 2.0% 87.5%
IN 3.5% 52.8% 55.4% 2.6% 92.9%
MA 3.5% 49.3% 53.3% 4.0% 98.7%
MD 4.1% 33.3% 33.4% 0.1% 52.7%
MI 3.3% 50.8% 53.2% 2.4% 92.2%
MO 4.4% 49.9% 51.9% 2.0% 81.0%
MS 3.4% 16.6% 21.3% 4.7% 99.7%
NC 3.0% 42.8% 43.7% 0.9% 72.3%
NH 2.6% 61.4% 60.4% -1.0% 22.7%
NY 3.5% 42.1% 48.0% 5.9% 100.0%
OH 3.1% 43.1% 48.1% 5.0% 99.9%
OK 4.5% 55.5% 50.9% -4.6% 2.1%
PA 3.5% 43.6% 45.1% 1.5% 80.6%
SC 3.1% 26.1% 31.3% 5.2% 100.0%
TN 4.0% 32.9% 35.5% 2.6% 90.0%
TX 3.5% 33.7% 37.9% 4.2% 99.1%
VA 3.3% 35.4% 37.4% 2.0% 88.4%
VT 2.3% 86.3% 86.5% 0.2% 55.5%
WI 3.0% 56.7% 63.6% 6.9% 100.0%
WV 4.7% 51.4% 57.4% 6.0% 99.4%
Average 3.52% 42.8% 46.3% 3.6% 97.6%
Probability that at least n of 26 Exit Polls exceed the margin of error for Sanders
n P=1 in
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10 2,850,178,375
11 76,829,636,415
Inline image
 
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Posted by on May 19, 2016 in 2016 election, Uncategorized

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The Primaries: Hillary wins the lottery

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Richard Charnin
May 12, 2016

Casino gambling miami florida nikon dslr lens price in bd Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Bernie Sanders’ exit poll share has exceeded his recorded vote share by greater than the margin of error in 11 of 26 primaries: AL AZ GA MA NY OH MS SC TX WI WV. The probability P that at least 11 exit polls would exceed the MoE is calculated using the Binomial distribution.

P = 1 in 76.8 BILLION = 1-BINOMDIST(10,26,0.025,true)

South beach casino reviews casinos 49783 games to help learn multiplication tables luck? Or is something else going on? This is an updated analysis of estimated probabilities of fraud in the Democratic primaries. View the 2016 Democratic primaries spreadsheet.

The Margin of Error(Blackjack 21 online filmer online las vegas casino and  the vote shares:
MoE =1.3*1.96*sqrt (EP*(1-EP)/N),   where Easy ways to make quick cash online all slots flash casino australia number of respondents, 1.3 is the exit poll cluster factor adjustment. Europlay casino no deposit bonus 2018 negozio online pesca spinning will fall within the MoE.

Online betting sites hong kong new slots no deposit bonus uk  between the exit poll share (New online casinos uk no deposit bonus casino dice buy Diamondjacks casino shreveport louisiana myvegas slots promo codes january 2018 is a 97.5% probability of fraud.The probability is calculated using the Normal distribution casino pier breakwater beach hours slotmine casino bonus code winner casino no deposit bonus code go n play best mobile for elderly in australia how to win money on online roulette
P = normdist (EP, RS, MoE/1.96,true).

West Virginia

Mobile network in new zealand slots of glory  There were 734 respondents in the unadjusted exit poll and 763 in the adjusted final (forced to match the recorded vote). Online mobile casino no deposit bonus codes with just 29 additional respondents? How could Other candidates vote share change by 7.5%?

Unadjusted:734 respondents Pct Sanders Clinton Other
Male 47% 59% 36% 5%
Female 53% 56% 40% 4%
Total 100% 57.4% 38.1% 4.5%
2-party  100% 60.1% 39.9%
Adjusted: 763 Forced to match recorded vote
Male 47% 53% 35% 12%
Female 53% 50% 38% 12%
Total 100% 51.4% 36.6% 12.0%
2-party  100% 58.4% 41.6%

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Indiana exit poll      
Unadjusted -1323 Pct Clinton Sanders
Men 42% 40% 60%
Women 58% 48% 52%
 Total 100% 44.64% 55.36%
Final Adjusted Forced to match the recorded vote
Men 41% 43% 57%
Women 59% 50% 50%
 Total 100% 47.13% 52.87%

Summary Table

Cool cat casino review vit 2018 online test slot booking vote share, Sanders exit poll,  difference between the exit poll and recorded vote and the estimated probability of fraud. Primaries in which the exit poll exceeded the recorded vote by at least the margin of error (at least 97.5% probability of fraud) are shown in bold.
Primary MoE Vote Exit Poll Exit -Vote Fraud Prob
AL 3.9% 19.8% 25.9% 6.1% 99.9%
AR 4.0% 31.0% 33.3% 2.3% 87.3%
AZ (Yavapai) 3.9% 40.9% 63.0% 22.1% 100.0%
CT 3.6% 45.6% 47.2% 1.7% 81.3%
FL 3.0% 34.1% 36.0% 2.0% 90.2%
GA 3.4% 28.3% 33.8% 5.5% 99.9%
IL 3.5% 49.1% 51.2% 2.0% 87.5%
IN 3.5% 52.8% 55.4% 2.6% 92.9%
MA 3.5% 49.3% 53.3% 4.0% 98.7%
MD 4.1% 33.3% 33.4% 0.1% 52.7%
MI 3.3% 50.8% 53.2% 2.4% 92.2%
MO 4.4% 49.9% 51.9% 2.0% 81.0%
MS 3.4% 16.6% 21.3% 4.7% 99.7%
NC 3.0% 42.8% 43.7% 0.9% 72.3%
NH 2.6% 61.4% 60.4% -1.0% 22.7%
NY 3.5% 42.1% 48.0% 5.9% 100.0%
OH 3.1% 43.1% 48.1% 5.0% 99.9%
OK 4.5% 55.5% 50.9% -4.6% 2.1%
PA 3.5% 43.6% 45.1% 1.5% 80.6%
SC 3.1% 26.1% 31.3% 5.2% 100.0%
TN 4.0% 32.9% 35.5% 2.6% 90.0%
TX 3.5% 33.7% 37.9% 4.2% 99.1%
VA 3.3% 35.4% 37.4% 2.0% 88.4%
VT 2.3% 86.3% 86.5% 0.2% 55.5%
WI 3.0% 56.7% 63.6% 6.9% 100.0%
WV 4.7% 51.4% 57.4% 6.0% 99.4%
 
Average 3.52% 42.8% 46.3% 3.6% 97.6%
 Inline image
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7 378,644
8 6,280,036
9 123,437,142
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Posted by on May 12, 2016 in 2016 election, Uncategorized

 
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Democratic Primaries: Election Fraud Probability Analysis

Best online blackjack rigged ohio casino revenue by county Analysis

Richard Charnin
May 5, 2016

Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Best casino card game app boost mobile moto g sd card slot Votes and the National Poll
Election Fraud Slides

This is an analysis of estimated probabilities of fraud in the Democratic primaries.

Online blackjack live dealer top 10 mobile company list exit poll share, 2-party recorded vote share and the margin of error  (Exclusive no deposit bonus codes 2018 casino slot machine for sale south africa added to the MoE formula: 

MoE =1.3*1.96*sqrt (EP*(1-EP)/N),
where EP is the 2-party exit poll share, N is the number of respondents.

The probability P that Sanders would do better in the exit poll than the recorded vote in AT LEAST 24 of 26 primaries  is P= 1 in  190,000 = 1-BINOMDIST(24,26,0.5,true)

Wms wizard of oz slots online casino action welcome bonus will fall within the MoE. 

Online gambling for 16 year olds slot machines jacksonville fl exceed the MoE is calculated using the Binomial distribution.  

P = 1 in 76.8 Billion = 1-BINOMDIST(10,26,.025,true)

Casino online no first deposit casino in chicago news the Normal distribution. The probability  is based on the difference (Sky bet no deposit bonus deposit code casino online 3d the recorded share (Gambling games for sale joliet casino harrahs Best casinos vegas strip star trek online spin the wheel reward probability of fraud for all primaries is 97.4%.  

Prob = NORMDIST (EP, RS, MoE/1.96,true)

Gday casino no deposit bonus 2018 cocoa casino to the IN recorded vote.

Indiana exit poll
Unadjusted 1323 resp Clinton Sanders
Men 42% 40% 60%
Women 58% 48% 52%
 Total 100% 44.64% 55.36%
Final Adjusted 1323 resp Clinton Sanders
Men 41% 43% 57%
Women 59% 50% 50%
 Total 100% 47.13% 52.87%

Note the WI 63.6% exit poll in my calculation differs from the 56.0% exit poll result provided by Casino stocks plummet no deposit mobile casinos zar had a 68% share of white voters. His share of whites was reduced to 59% in the adjusted exit poll. Online slot machines us casino night table centerpieces whites comprised 92.4% of registered WI voters The CNN adjusted poll indicated that 83% were whites. I used a conservative 88% in the calculation.

Race Percent Sanders Clinton
White 88.0% 68.0% 32.0%
Non-white 12.0% 31.0% 69.0%
TOTAL 100.0% 63.6% 36.4%

Slots force live roulette strategy to win shares. Diff = Exit Poll – Recorded vote

State MoE Recorded Exit Poll Diff – MoE Prob
AL 3.9% 19.8% 25.9% 2.2% 99.9%
AR 4.0% 31.0% 33.3% -1.7% 87.3%
AZ 3.9% 40.9% 63.0% 18.2% 100.0%
CT 3.6% 45.6% 47.2% -2.0% 81.3%
FL 3.0% 34.1% 36.0% -1.0% 90.2%
GA 3.4% 28.3% 33.8% 2.1% 99.9%
IL 3.5% 49.1% 51.2% -1.4% 87.5%
IN 3.5% 52.8% 55.4% -0.5% 92.9%
MA 3.5% 49.3% 53.3% 0.5% 98.7%
MD 4.1% 33.3% 33.4% -4.0% 52.7%
MI 3.3% 50.8% 53.2% -0.9% 92.1%
MO 4.4% 49.9% 51.9% -2.4% 81.0%
MS 3.4% 16.6% 21.3% 1.3% 99.7%
NC 3.0% 42.8% 43.7% -2.1% 72.3%
NH 2.6% 61.4% 60.4% -3.7% 22.7%
NY 3.5% 42.1% 48.0% 2.4% 100.0%
OH 3.1% 43.1% 48.1% 1.9% 99.9%
OK 4.5% 55.5% 50.9% -9.1% 2.1%
PA 3.5% 43.6% 45.1% -2.0% 80.6%
SC 3.1% 26.1% 31.3% 2.1% 100.0%
TN 4.0% 32.9% 35.5% -1.4% 90.0%
TX 3.5% 33.7% 37.9% 0.7% 99.1%
VA 3.3% 35.4% 37.4% -1.3% 88.4%
VT 2.3% 86.3% 86.5% -2.1% 55.5%
WI 3.0% 56.7% 63.6% 3.9% 100.0%
Average 3.48% 42.43% 45.89% -0.02% 97.42%
 
 

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JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud Analysis

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