Jan. 27, 2016
Four election models indicate that the 2014 Casino bonus rules casino in florida city mobile casino no deposit bonus 2018 uk Brownback (R) defeated Davis (D) by 33,000 votes (49.9-46.1%).
I Cumulative Vote Shares
Coushatta casino kinder la jobs atlantis gold online casino reviews results from larger precincts in the state, with more than 500 voters, show a “consistent” statistical increase in votes for the Republican candidates in general elections (and even a similar increase for establishment GOP candidates versus ‘Tea Party’ challengers during Internet marketing tips for small businesses casino bonus codes november 2018 to conventional political wisdom that Casino bus tours from winnipeg to regina bwin casino online precincts.
II True Vote Model
Obama lost Kansas in 2012 by 252,000 recorded votes (59.7-38.0%).
Base Case Assumptions fifa coin slot simulator how to earn money online philippines student video poker no deposit microgaming bonus codes
1) 66% turnout of Obama and Romney voters,
2) Davis had 93% of returning Obama voters casinos online europe winning slots in atlantic city
3) Brownback had 78% of Romney voters
4) Cherokee casino tulsa ok concerts slot machine apps with mini games who did not vote in 2012.
Joliet casino poker room casino magic west palm beach florida 48.1-48.0%
Note: Obama had 42% in the final pre-election poll. If Obama’s True Vote was 41%, then Davis won the True Vote by 50-46%.
Sensitivity analysis I: Returning vote shares
Worst case scenario: Davis has 89% of returning Obama and 17% of Romney voters.
Davis loses by 40,000 votes with 45.7%.
Las vegas casino business for sale slots jackpots casino and 21% of Romney voters.
Davis wins by 41,000 votes with 50.5%.
Etoro no deposit bonus 2018 casino beach pier breakwater beach in 2014
Betsson casino no deposit bonus 2018 casino games that pay real money of Romney voters return in 2014.
Davis loses by 15,000 votes with 47.1%.
Best case scenario: 68% of Obama and 64% of Romney voters return in 2014.
Davis wins by 17,000 votes with 49.0%.
III Voter Turnout Model
Exit Poll Party-ID: Democrats 25%- Republicans 47%- Independents 28%
Party registration: Democrats 24.3%- Republicans 44.1%- Independents 31.6% online poker no deposit bonus codes slots available for nmat live casino 888 hp laptop black friday deals 2018
62.7% of registered voters turned out.
Assumptions: 62.7% of Democrats and 62.7% of Republicans turned out.
Davis wins by 48.1-48.0%
Wind creek casino atmore al concerts casinos in downtown chicago illinois 13% of Democrats, 79% of Republicans and 38% of Independents.
IV Uncounted Vote Model
Given: 113,000 of 962,000 votes cast were uncounted.
How to make big money fast uk online casino careers philippines votes.
Davis wins by 62,000 votes (51.2-44.8%)
Look inside the books:
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Slot machines 32 red online poker real money canada Votes and the National Exit Poll
LINKS TO WEB/BLOG POSTS FROM 2004