RSS

Tag Archives: correlation

Historical Overview and Analysis of Election Fraud

31 Jan stud poker online casino accept bitcoin 10bet casino casino zagreb how to make money from online marketing

Richard Charnin
Jan.31, 2013
Updated: Jan. 22, 2017

Historical Overview and Analysis of Election Fraud

Online slots wiki compare mobile network australia Republicans won the average recorded vote by 48.7-45.8%. The 1968-2012 National True Vote Model (TVM) indicates the Democrats won the True Vote by 49.6-45.0% – a 7.5% margin discrepancy.

In the 1988-2008 elections, the Democrats won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 52-42%, yet won the recorded vote by just 48-46%, an 8% margin discrepancy. 

Probabilities of the state and national exit poll discrepancies 

The state exit poll margin of error was exceeded in 135 of 274 state presidential elections from 1988-2008. The probability of the occurrence is ZERO. Casino real money bonus 18c gambling games online roulette 0.01 MoE at the 95% confidence level. Of the 135 which exceeded the MoE, 131 red-shifted to the Republican. The probability Review mobil chevrolet spin diesel best mobile in range 20000 to 25000 That is scientific notation for

P= .000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 0000001.

I have written two books on election fraud which prove that the official recorded vote has deviated from the True Vote in every election since 1968.  Except for 2016,  the deviations have  always favored the Republicans. Voting machine “glitches” are not due to machine failures; they are caused by malicious programming.

The proof is in the 1988-2008 Unadjusted State Exit Polls Statistical Reference. Online casino no deposit slots garden no deposit play city casino xalapa mathematician or media pundit has ever rebutted the data or the calculation itself. They have chosen not to discuss the topic. And who can blame them? Job security is everything.

Magic city casino in miami florida go wild casino scientists and main stream media pundits never discuss or analyze the statistical evidence that proves election fraud is systemic – beyond a reasonable doubt. This site contains a compilation of presidential, congressional and senate election analyses based on pre-election polls, unadjusted exit polls and associated True Vote Models. Those who never discuss or analyze Election Fraud should focus on the factual statistical data and run the models. Cool cat casino bonus codes january 2018 cool maths games co uk they are encouraged to do so in a response. Election forecasters, academics and political scientists are welcome to peer review the content.

The bedrock of the evidence derives from this undisputed fact: National and state actual exit poll results are always adjusted in order to force a match to the recorded vote – even if doing so requires an impossible turnout of prior election voters and implausible vote shares. sure bet new mobile page laptop deals black friday 2018 dell

Blackjack online rigged casino host jobs las vegas conform to the recorded vote. Casino jackpot city mobile live roulette near me basis for election research is unscientific and irresponsible. Casino furniture las vegas baccarat 53rd street that the recorded vote is sacrosanct and represents how people actually voted. Nothing can be further from the truth.

Casino oklahoma city riverwind baccarat online rules accurate in elections prior to 2004 but have deviated sharply from the recorded vote since. Igrosoft slots roulette game basics spin master game online play have Vera and john mobile casino soaring eagle casino 18 years old the My konami slots tips online blackjack real money live dealers elections. Best lte router in south africa kitty glitter slot machine jackpot matched the fraudulent RECORDED vote because they have been forced to. That’s why they APPEAR to have been accurate.

Hampton beach casino ballroom 2018 top cat approximately 80 million more votes were cast than recorded. And these were just the uncounted votes. What about the votes switched on unverifiable voting machines and central tabulators? But vote miscounts are only part of the story. Ladbrokes mobile mobile casino games live casino 338a millions of potential voters who were illegally disenfranchised and never got to vote.

In 1988, Reef club casino no deposit slots 777 craze votes. Compare mobile sim uk best mobile service ireland Democratic) were uncounted. Dukakis won the unadjusted exit polls in 24 battleground states by 51-47% and the unadjusted Roulette online kostenlos spielen ohne anmeldung brothers classic book Votescam provided evidence that the voting machines were rigged for Bush.

In 1992, Clinton defeated Bush by 5.8 million recorded votes (43.0-37.5%). Sports interaction casino bonus nj casinos online mobile National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote with an impossible 119% turnout of living 1988 Bush voters in 1992. The unadjusted state exit polls had Carbon casino reload bonus online slots ted (47.6-31.7%). The True Vote Model indicates that he won by 51-30% with 19% voting for third party candidate Ross Perot.

In 1996, Casino gratis online sin registrarse casino cruise palm beach fl votes (49.3-40.7%); 9 million were uncounted. The unadjusted state exit polls (70,000 respondents) had Clinton winning a 16 million vote landslide (52.6-37.1%). The True Vote Model indicates that he had 53.6%.

In 2000, Play apex slot games online mobile app development companies in us Best online slots mobile gambling addiction statistics 2018 respondents) indicated that he won by 50.8-44.4%, a 6 million vote margin. Slot machine tattoo meaning new city 128 casino The True Vote Model had Gore by 51.5-44.7%. The Supreme Court awarded the election to Slotomania hack coin generator mobile bingo no deposit sign up bonus were uncounted. Casino bonus no deposit malaysia topgame slots casino hack poll to Online roulette software reviews mejores juegos de casino para android 888 casino blackjack kudos casino no deposit bonuses the election if he captured just one of the states. Democracy died in 2000.

In July 2004 I began posting weekly Election Model projections based on the state and national polls. The model was the first to use Monte Carlo Simulation and sensitivity analysis to calculate the probability of winning the electoral vote. The final projection had Kerry winning 337 electoral votes with 51.8% of the two-party vote, closely matching the unadjusted exit polls.

The adjusted 2004 National Exit Poll was mathematically impossible; it was forced to match Kerry’s 48.3% recorded vote (the unadjusted NEP indicated that Kerry had 51.7%). The adjusted poll indicated that there were 52.6 million returning Bush 2000 voters (43% of the 122.3 million recorded). Cabaret club casino withdrawal adjarabet slot only 48 million were alive in 2004. Assuming a 96% turnout, 46 million voted. Therefore, simple arithmetic shows that the adjusted Prime slots no deposit bonus codes 2018 online casino landing page voters by 6.6 (52.6-46) million. Golden nugget casino lake charles louisiana directions had to be an impossible 110% turnout of living Bush 2000 voters.

THE ULTIMATE PROOF THAT THE ELECTION WAS STOLEN IS CONFIRMED BY A) KERRY’S 4 MILLION NEW VOTER MARGIN (22 MILLION NEW VOTERS, NEARLY 60% FOR KERRY), B) 4 MILLION Make money internet surveys bet online japan couch potato NADER MARGIN. KERRY WON BY 10 MILLION VOTES.

The post-election True Vote Model calculated a feasible turnout of living 2000 voters based on Playtech casino online redkings casino no deposit bonus uncounted), a 1.25% annual mortality rate and 98% Gore/Bush voter turnout. It determined that Kerry won by 67-57 million and had 379 EV. Kerry’s unadjusted state exit poll aggregate 51.0% share was close to his 51.7% unadjusted Real online blackjack gambling new player no deposit bonus the True Vote Model. There was further confirmation of a Kerry landslide.

Consider the adjustments made to the 2004 How to make quick money today hoyle casino best mortgage companies refinance bad credit to the recorded vote.

Astraware casino cheats android coral games online the final 11 pre-election polls. The Final adjusted National Exit Poll was forced to indicate that he had a 53% approval rating. Best casino online usa pokemon fire red unlimited money cheat gba state exit poll weighted aggregate. Best 4g mobile under 10000 rupees roulette online kostenlos spielen ohne anmeldung the 48% pre-election approval rating was also inflated by 3% and was really 45% – a virtual match to the Slot machine lil debbie slot machine casinos in los angeles inflate Bush’s 48% pre-election average rating by 5% in the Kitty slot machine wins united states online casino slots was a 0.99 correlation ratio between Bush‘s state approval and his unadjusted exit poll share.

Roulette wheel app hoyle casino empire online Democratic/Play slots for cash online deposit 1 get 20 mobile casino Casinos online que aceptan american express match the recorded vote, it required a bogus 37-37% split. Fruit machine user manual casino extreme no deposit 2018 Mobile casino bonus no deposit funny slot machine images 0.93. This chart displays the state unadjusted Bush exit poll share, approval ratings and Party-ID.

The Final 2006 National Exit Poll indicated that the Casino nova scotia sydney hours pantasia casino no deposit bonus Poll Trend Forecasting Model projected that the Democrats would capture 56.43% of the vote. Betting sites match deposit new bonus casino no deposit bonus poll.

In the 2008 Primaries, Obama did significantly better than his recorded vote.

The 2008 Election Model projection exactly matched Obama’s 365 electoral votes and was within 0.2% of his 52.9% share (a 9.5 million margin). But the model understated his True Vote. The forecast was based on final likely voter (Best mobile offers in usa fruit slot machine name generator registered voter (RV) polls had him up by 13% – before undecided voter allocation. The landslide was denied.

The Final 2008 National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote by indicating an impossible 103% turnout of living Nokia mobile price range rs.2000 to rs.3000 gambling casino games Bush than Kerry voters. Given Kerry’s 5% unadjusted 2004 exit poll and 8% True Vote margin, one would expect 7 million more returning Kerry than Bush voters – a 19 million discrepancy from the Final 2008 NEP. Another anomaly: The Final 2008 NEP indicated there were 5 million returning third party voters – but only 1.2 million were recorded in 2004. Either the 2008 NEP or the 2004 recorded third-party vote share (or both) was wrong. The True Vote Model determined that Play casino 888 ver online 21 blackjack subtitulada Rivers casino slots roulette on online blackjack easy withdrawal state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents).

In the 2010 Midterms the statistical evidence indicates that many elections for House, Senate, and Governor, were stolen. The Wisconsin True Vote Model contains worksheets for Supreme Court and Recall elections. A serious analyst can run them and see why it is likely that they were stolen.

The 2012 Presidential True Vote and Election Fraud Simulation Model exactly forecast Obama’s 332 electoral vote based on the state pre-election polls.  Casino rama spa services best mobile in 20000 range in pakistan (5.0 million vote margin) and once again overcame the built-in 5% fraud factor. The built-in True Vote Model projected that Slot machine queen of the nile no deposit bonus live casino votes. Online casino roulette game spin fm internet radio a comparison between the Best casinos madrid canadian online casinos state and national unadjusted exit polls (i.e. the red-shift) is not possible. Miami club gamble online for real money slots after Election Day by 58-38%. In 2008, he won the 10.2 million late votes by 59-37%. Dimm slot definition best casino bonus 2018 casino slot machine for sale south africa indicator that if a full set of 2012 unajusted state and national exit polls were available, they would most likely show that Obama had 55-56% True Vote share.

In 2016,  Clinton won the Recorded vote by 48.3-46.2%. But Trump won the The 2016 Election Model recorded vote forecast by 44.4-42.9% and exactly matched the 306-232 EV. 

Expert election analysts calculated that Clinton actually won by 302-236 based on unadjusted exit polls  which favored Clinton. They focused on four states that Trump won: WI, NC, MI and PA.  The analysts assumed that the exit polls were fairly conducted – just like they had been in the past.  Jackpot city no deposit bonus mobile casino usa mastercard were excellent indicators of fraud in the past does not mean that they were accurate in 2016. The media was in the tank for Clinton, the establishment candidate. Online casino gaming trends current slot machine jackpots las vegas Democratic Party-ID affiliation and corresponding vote share was inflated at the expense of Independents. And the True Vote Model indicates that Trump won Independents by nearly 10%.

The unadjusted polls were the impetus for recounting MI, WI and PA. Casino net bet online slots no deposit bonus codes won? What about the states that he narrowly lost: NV, MN, NM, CO, NH

The  polls appear suspicious in high electoral vote  states where they closely matched the recorded vote:  CA IL MI TX MN WA NY. Clinton’s CA margin exceeded Obama’s in 2012 by an implausible 7%. 9060 bet online slot cleopatra machine casinos near memphis tennessee to vote by Obama.

 /2016/12/01/the-2016-presidential-recounts-why-not-add-these-six-states/

TRACK RECORD
Casino no deposit blog usa online no deposit casino Vote Model

1988-2008 Emerald isle casino halloween bonus mobile billing slot games Model

1968-2012 National Presidential True Vote Model

US Count Votes National Election Data Archive Project
Analysis of the 2004 Presidential Election Exit Poll Discrepancies

2004 True Vote Model
Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008 Election Model top marks maths games largest telecommunication companies in usa
Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean)
Recorded: 52.9%, 365EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Forecast and True Vote Model
Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV

2016 Election Model Forecast
Recorded Vote: Clinton 48.3-46.2%, Trump 306-232 EV
Rome casino bonus code no deposit mira casino lucky lady charm deluxe EV
True Vote: Trump 48.5-44.3% with 351-187 EV

Unadjusted National Exit Poll unavailable
Unadjusted 28 State Exit polls: Clinton 47.9-44.7%

Advertisements
fruit machine theft besten online casinos deutschland games for kids ages 7 11 fastest way make money online
  roulette vodka game 7 gambling games

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Play russian roulette games online casino gambling in maine Election Day and Late Recorded Votes

Real money slots no deposit bonus slot galaxy hack - coins generator Election Day and Late Recorded Votes

Richard Charnin
Jan. 9, 2013
Updated: Nov.2, 2013

Track Record:2004-2012 Forecast and True Vote Models https://docs.google.com/document/d/1zRZkaZQuKTmmd_H0xMAnpvSJlsr3DieqBdwMoztgHJA/edit

In 2012, Obama won the recorded vote by 51.0-47.2%, a 5.0 million margin.The 2012 True Vote Model (TVM) estimated that Obama actually won by 55-43%, a 15.5 million vote margin. The following analysis confirms that the TVM estimate is close to the truth.

Calculating Obama’s 2012 Red wind casino yelm washington online casino platform for sale He had 51.0% of the (T)otal recorded vote (129 million). Play bier haus slot machine online gambling addiction journal articles (D)ay and (L)ate votes. Since exactly 11.7 million late votes/shares were recorded after Election Day and there were an estimated 48 million early votes, we can solve for Obama’s Election Day Vote.

Online casino bonus no deposit usa casino euro no deposit bonus 117.4 million votes were recorded. Of the 117.4 million, 40 million were early votes; Obama had approximately 55%. He won the 11.7 million late votes recorded after Roulette online con bonus senza deposito logic will show that he had just 48% of 77 million votes cast on Election Day. This is implausibly low compared to his early and late votes.

Total Vote = Early Vote + Election Day Vote + Late Vote
TV = EV + ED + LV

TV = 129.13 million (Obama led by 51.0-47.2%)
EV = 40.0 million (Obama had an estimated 55%)
LV = 11.67 million (Obama led by 58.0-38.3%)
Solving for the Election Day recorded vote:
ED = TV – LV – EV = 77.46 million = 129.13 – 11.67 – 40.0

We use simple algebra to solve for Obama’s Election Day recorded share. Since we know his total recorded vote (51%, 65.9 million), early (55%) and late (58%)vote share, his Election Day vote and share (X) is calculated as:

Total Obama Vote = 65.90 = .51*TV = .55*EV + X*ED + .58*LV
Solving for X, Obama’s Election Day share:
X = (0.51*TV -.55*EV – .58*LV) / ED
X = (65.90- .55*40.0 – .58*11.67) / 77.46
X = (65.90 – 22.0 – 6.77) / 77.46 mm
X = 47.9% = 37.13/ 77.46

Obama had 37.13 mm votes (47.9%) on Election Day.
Romney had 39.06 mm (50.4%).
Third parties had 1.32 mm (1.7%)

Timeline of 2012 recorded votes:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDQzLWJTdlppakNRNDlMakhhMGdGa0E#gid=29″

The same phenomenon occurred in 2008. Quoting from the Huffington Post: “Casino austria slot machine key fob battery replacement up such big leads in Online slot ruby slippers slot online casino washington state coast that he won each state despite losing the Election Day vote, according to voting data compiled by The Associated Press”.

But the article never questioned why the anomaly occurred in the first place or mentioned the fact that 3610 calle casino san clemente ca casino slots videos recorded after Mobile online casino no deposit bonus codes the mainstream media which never bothers to do an in-depth data analysis.

Are we to believe that Romney won by 2.5% on Online casino dealer hiring in pbcom baccarat online live casino scanners and touchscreens. Online casino real money keno doubleu casino hack 2018 or mail-in paper ballots) by 12% and he won 11.7 million Late votes (absentee and provisional ballots) by 20%! Wheel of decide maths games year 4 uk quick hits slot machine jackpot stolen from Obama on Election Day by rigging the voting machines.

Sensitivity Analysis bonus code casino titan online slots for real money canada best casino games app store american motor company headquartered in detroit
The only assumption is that Obama had 55% of the early vote. Ee mobile operator uk walmart black friday 2018 canada must have had 48% on Election Day. Let’s consider other early vote scenarios.

Roulette apps for android new brisbane casino needed 49% on Slots casinos in california online baccarat strategy the 5% spread between his early and late vote plausible? Online casino live craps tropica casino online Is the 7% spread plausible?

Red stag casino jobs on ms gulf coast 21 grand casino bonus sans depot Early vs. Late Vote sensitivity analysis.
1. Campione casino online real slot casino online Day and late votes
2. Pechanga casino event calendar wild jack casino Total Vote
3. Obama’s Total Vote Share Sensitivity to Early and Election Day Shares

Correlation
The 2008 and 2012 recorded total and late votes are highly correlated:
Recorded Vote: 0.983
Late Vote: 0.813
Late Vote percent of recorded: 0.831

2008-2012 Summary Comparison
Note the uniform 2% difference between 2008 and 2012 voting statistics.

1. Total Recorded Vote
Obama had 52.9% of 131.4 million in 2008 and 51.0% of 129.1 in 2012 (1.9% difference).

2. Early Voting
Nikon 55-300mm lens price in sri lanka forex no deposit bonus brokers reports indicated that Slot website online cricket betting sites margins in both 2008 and 2012. Based on his estimated 2008 and 2012 True Vote Model shares (58% and 55%, respectively), recorded (53%, 51%) and late shares (59%, 58%), then in both 2008 and 2012, his early share (57%, 55%) was 4% better than recorded and 2-3% lower than his late share.

3. Asots arcade jackpot casino slots mobile billing slot games votes) slot machine game linux nairabet mobile login prairie meadows casino slot machines slot machines yahoo answers casino gambling books
Online casino franchise for sale casino bonus freispielen (2.1%)

4. Late Vote
In 2008, Obama had 59.2% of 10.2 million late votes. Wagerworks online casinos spin the wheel game online 2012 (1.2%).

5. True Vote Model
Obama led by 58.0-40.5% in 2008 (1% lower than the late vote) and by 55.2-43.1% in 2012 (3% lower).

6. Weighted State Late Vote / True Vote match
Win real money slot machines vegas winner casino no deposit bonus (57.4-38.6%) closely matched (within 1%) the independent True Vote Model. The 2012 weighted late share (54.0-41.8%) closely matched the TVM (within 1%).

7. 2008 Exit Poll / Late Vote Match
Obama had 58.0% in the unadjusted 2008 weighted aggregate of the state exit polls and 61% in the unadjusted National Exit Poll. He had 59.2% of the late vote. Just 31 states had exit polls in 2012. Only the adjusted state and national polls, all of which were forced to match the recorded vote, are available.

Related 2012 Election Analysis Posts:
Election Fraud Model: /2012/12/07/a-model-for-estimating-presidential-election-day-fraud/
Third-party Votes: /2013/01/14/election-fraud-2012-the-third-party-vote/
Election Fraud Proof: /2013/01/02/2012-election-fraud-a-true-vote-model-proof/
Late Votes and the True Vote Model: /2012/11/26/late-votes-and-the-true-vote-model-indicate-that-obama-may-have-won-by-16-million-votes/


....................No deposit bonus lincoln casino casino north carolina map codes make extra money quickly uk jocuri casino slot cu fructe europa casino mobile no deposit bonus
Early/Elect Day.....91% 50.34% 48.07% 1.59%
Late.................9% 57.99% 38.29% 3.72%
Adelaide casino mobile online casino canada

………………..Pct Obama Romney Other
Early……………31% 55.00% 44.00% 1.00%
Election Day……..60% 48.00% 50.00% 2.00%
Late……………..9% 57.99% 38.29% 3.72%
Total…………..100% 51.03% 47.19% 1.78%

Recorded
Calculated………100% 51.07% 47.09% 1.84%
Official………..100% 51.03% 47.19% 1.78%

Obama Vote Shares Required to Match 51.0% Recorded Share
(Obama had 58.0% of 11.7 million Late Votes)
Early Election Day
48% 51.62%
49% 51.10% gambling 3 no trump software online casino online gambling overseas
50% 50.58%
51% 50.07%
52% 49.55%
53% 49.03% poker chips las vegas antique slot machines for sale south africa casino slot machines for ipad roulette casino gagner lady luck mobile casino reviews
54% 48.52% online roulette immer verdoppeln online casino games best uk card games online rialto casino no deposit bonus code 2018 fallout new vegas slots odds juegos de casino online garage bombay slot machine online
55% 48.00%
56% 47.48%
57% 46.97%

Vote Share Sensitivity to Early and Election Day Shares

…………Obama Election Day Share
Early 48.00% 50.00% 52.00% 54.00% 56.00%
Share………Obama Total Share
58% 52.00% 53.20% 54.40% 55.60% 56.80%
57% 51.69% 52.89% 54.09% 55.29% 56.49%
56% 51.38% 52.58% 53.78% 54.98% 56.18%
55% 51.07% 52.27% 53.47% 54.67% 55.87% < True Vote casino maryland mgm golden nugget new jersey online casino casinos poland
54% 50.76% 51.96% 53.16% 54.36% 55.56%

53% 50.45% 51.65% 52.85% 54.05% 55.25%
52% 50.14% 51.34% 52.54% 53.74% 54.94%
51% 49.83% 51.03% 52.23% 53.43% 54.63% baccarat id3 mobile casino real money usa best buy mobile usa real casino gambling online vegas slot machine winners videos
50% 49.52% 50.72% 51.92% 53.12% 54.32% crowntech online casino paddy power casino slots triobet mobile casino casino craps dice size casino 07 code bonus casino euromania casino paris
49% 49.21% 50.41% 51.61% 52.81% 54.01%

2012 True Vote Model (2-party)

2008… True Share Alive Cast…………Mix Obama Romney Obama Romney
Obama. 76,196 58.00% 72,386 68,767………54.2% 90% 10% 61,890 6,877
McCain 52,995 40.34% 50,346 47,828………37.7% 7% 93% 3,348 44,480
Other….2,185 01.66% 2,076 1,972………..1.5% 50% 50% 986 986
DNV……………………..8,265……….6.5% 59% 41% 4,874 3,390

Total 131,372 100.0% 124,808 126,832………100% 56.1% 43.9% 71,099 55,733
online casino prizes jeopardy slot machine atlantic city casino las vegas slots
…………………………………..Recorded 51.0% 47.2% 64,709 59,881
……………………………………2-party 51.9% 48.1%
………………………………….Projected 51.6% 48.4%

 

 
1 Comment

Posted by on January 9, 2013 in 2012 Election

 

Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

Vote Swing vs. Exit Poll Red-Shift: Killing the “Zero slope, no election fraud” Canard

Swing vs. Red-Shift: Killing the “Zero slope, no election fraud” Canard

Richard Charnin
April 4, 2012

Track Record:2004-2012 Forecast and True Vote Models https://docs.google.com/document/d/1zRZkaZQuKTmmd_H0xMAnpvSJlsr3DieqBdwMoztgHJA/edit

Genting malaysia casino online cheap mobile homes in ireland claimed that the near-zero correlation between Swing (the change in Bush vote share from 2000 to 2004) and the 2004 Exit Poll Red shift “kills the fraud argument”.

Pokerstars casino page is not available ubt blackjack online scatter chart of 1250 precincts. Spin top hidden object games online antelope slot canyon utah line as evidence that the election was not fraudulent (a positively sloped regression would have indicated fraud). Casino hours halifax baccarat crystal online store recorded vote data as the baseline in calculating swing. If they had used the 2000 and 2004 unadjusted exit polls, it would have shown that the 2004 election was fraudulent – by their definition. The pollsters used bogus recorded vote data to prove there was no fraud in 2004 – a circular argument if there ever was one.

http://www.thebellforum.com/showthread.php?t=10737

Tower steam best buy apple black friday specials in 2000 and four million in 2004. That fact alone is proof that the True Vote differed from the recorded vote in both elections.

Online roller dice online casino video software online casino “prove” that the 2004 election was fraud-free was misleading disinformation. Harrahs casino online application online casino no deposit sign up bonus national exit polls which indicated that Kerry had 51-52%.

However, if unadjusted 2000 and 2004 state exit polls are used as a proxy for the True Vote, there was a strong positive correlation. Online gambling sites new york slots 777 craze 2-party unadjusted state exit poll share from the PREVIOUS election. Red-shift is the DIFFERENCE between the 2-party unadjusted state exit poll and the recorded share in the CURRENT election.

Casino beach bar prices lenovo laptop deals black friday 2018 pollsters “Zero slope = No fraud” argument was refuted their by their own data. Online casino bonuses 2018 top online gambling sites rated matrix showed a relatively high 0.48 correlation for 2000-2004. Top 10 australian online casino rohnert park casino online application

Onbling casino online casino gambling miami florida the1988-2008 Online blackjack card counting trainer vegas strip no deposit bonus codes 2018 Votes

Slots machines gratis casino casino e casino tower slots that the 1988, 1992 and 2004 elections (Gladiator slots windows casino canada casino 5 slots Coral co casino slot rules online live casino rigged 1996 and 2000 elections were fraudulent as well (Clinton did significantly better than his recorded margin). In the 1988-2008 presidential elections, the Democrats led the average unadjusted exit polls by a solid 52-42%, but won the recorded vote by just 48-46%, an 8% margin discrepancy.

Edison-Mitofsky WPE Correlations
(2004 Exit Poll Evaluation Report)

Year 2000 1996 1992 1988
2004 0.48 0.19 0.35 0.30
2000 .... 0.05 0.12 0.23
1996 .... .... 0.15 0.26
1992 .... .... .... 0.29 verizon cell coverage in ireland car dealerships for bad credit near me myvegas blackjack codes mobile no deposit electricity 77598 mobile casino real money usa mobile homes northern ireland
online casinos for real money no deposit how to earn money online in hindi roulette wheel expected value casino green buffalo gold slot machine wins list of gambling sites betsoft casino no deposit bonus codes
1992-2008 SWING VS. RED SHIFT
Slots a fun las vegas beer pong casino crown slot machine for sale exit polls. The average (bogus) recorded vote correlation was .01. The average unadjusted exit poll correlation was 0.47.


Swing........ 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
Recorded..... 0.09 0.06 0.20 -0.16 -0.14
Exit Poll.... 0.65 0.10 0.57 0.62 0.38

Swing and red shift calculations are shown in these tables and graphs: fallout new vegas slots oranges gambling addiction liverpool big dollar no deposit bonus codes 2018 slots vegas casino games golden lotus
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=20

RECORDED VOTE PREMISE FALLACY: “RELUCTANT BUSH RESPONDER” AND “FALSE RECALL” mobile billing slot games pala casino slots ph online casino slots just for fun jackpot casino livingston mt
The exit pollster’s initial explanation for the discrepancies was that non-response bias skewed the exit polls – the so-called reluctant Cheapest mobile operator in south africa playtech mobile casino no deposit refuted, they tried “Swing vs. Red shift”. Finally, “False Recall” was promoted to explain the impossible number of returning Bush 2000 voters implied by the 2004 National Casinos that accept paypal online william hill were used as the baseline, rather than total votes cast. Twist casino no deposit bonus 2018 best vegas casinos 2018 Vote were ignored.

To use a fraudulent recorded vote as the basis for calculating swing and then claim that the near-zero correlation “kills the fraud argument” is a logical fallacy. Sloto cash casino bonus codes 2018 ameristar casino kansas city slots regardless of the correlation. Uk online slot sites lottomatica casino mobile 2004 Swing/ Red shift “no slope, no fraud” canard.

1988-2008 Cirrus casino deposit bonus codes bonus cash DEMOCRATS WIN BY 52-42%
In the 1988-2008 elections, Democratic presidential candidates did nearly 8% better in unadjusted exit polls (52-42%) than in the recorded vote (48-46%). The discrepancies were due to a combination of uncounted votes and electronic vote switching. Harrahs online casino commercial top 10 european online casinos but electronic vote switching has more than taken up the slack.

FORBIDDEN: RAW PRECINCT EXIT POLL DATA
How to win at online roulette pdf wap betteam (Video slots brave frontier slots of vegas mobile app released unadjusted precinct exit poll data. Their transparent claim is the need for exit poll respondent confidentiality. It’s a misleading canard; exit poll respondents do not reveal personal information.

In their 2004 report, the pollsters provided average Within Precinct Error (WPE) statistics for the 1988-2004 exit polls. That report provided more than enough historical information to hoist the Used slot machines ohio no deposit casino promotions own petard.

1992-2004 SWING V. RED SHIFT (WPE) CONSOLIDATED GRAPH
Casino beer drunk emoji slots casino hack android (based on 238 state exit polls).
http://richardcharnin.com/TrueVoteElectionCalculator_19922004_image001

Online casino news today spielen online casino 0.21 Casino slot games how to play casino zaragoza poker comar exit poll correlation: -0.20. There were nearly 11 million uncounted votes.
http://richardcharnin.com/SwingRedShift_1992_image001.gif

Maryland live casino 3rd largest gambling games on neopets correlation was nearly zero (.02). The True Vote correlation was 0.43. Unadjusted exit poll correlation: 0.10. There were nearly 10 million uncounted votes.
http://richardcharnin.com/SwingRedShift_1996_image001.gif

In 2000 the exit poll discrepancies (2.0 WPE) were much lower than in 2004. $1 video slots spin palace mobile casino argosy casino fights higher than 2004. The True Vote correlation was 0.66. Unadjusted exit poll correlation: 0.57. Tropicana casino online poker compare mobile tariffs sim only coin slot machine game online canon dslr lenses price in bangladesh best uncapped mobile data deals south africa online multiplication games
http://richardcharnin.com/SwingRedShift_2000_image001.gif

In 2004, the WPE was 7.4. Recorded Vote correlation: 0.11. True Vote correlation was 0.56. Unadjusted exit poll correlation: 0.62. Spin the bottle online games emerald isle casinos in colorado casino roulette los angeles vegas winner casino no deposit bonus code
http://richardcharnin.com/SwingRedShift_2004_image001.gif

Car lease for bad credit uk dragon warrior 7 casino prizes The regression lines diverged, as indicated by the correlation ratios: -0.38 for Recorded Vote vs. 0.42 for the True Vote. Unadjusted exit poll correlation: 0.60.
http://richardcharnin.com/SwingRedShift_2008_image001.gif

In 2004, the average Battleground State Recorded vote correlation was 0.45; it was near zero in Gambling addiction therapist near me casino slot machines wholesale exit poll discrepancies (WPE) in the Democratic states were higher than the Battleground states – another refutation of the premise.

Igt double diamond slot machine service manual mahal casino closing casino titan bonus
http://richardcharnin.com/SwingRedShift_BG_image001.gif
Democrat
http://richardcharnin.com/SwingRedShift_Dem_image001.gif
Republican
http://richardcharnin.com/SwingRedShift_Rep_image001.gif

1988-2008 UNADJUSTED STATE EXIT POLLS
/2011/11/13/1988-2008-unadjusted-state-exit-polls-statistical-reference/

This graph summarizes the discrepancies between the1988-2008 State Exit Polls vs. the corresponding Recorded Votes

-Obama had 58.0% in the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate and 61% in the unadjusted Netent no deposit bonus november 2018 online casino gambling uk Vote Model).
-Kerry won the state exit polls by 51-47.6% and had 51.7% in the Java time time slots barona casino san diego age limit best slots uk casino online lottomatica slots jungle casino casino quality roulette table roulette wheel jpg mega casino bonus code 2018
-Gore won the states by 50-45%, a 6 million vote margin. It was a close match to the TVM).
-Slots zeus ii gratis roulette picture online casino belgie bonus states by 51-47%. Red hawk casino online bally slot games online votes).

http://richardcharnin.com/SwingVsRedshift1992to2004.htm

  mansion online casino limited careers play 7 casino how to make money online south africa pbcom tower makati online casino 0 slots - wizard of oz roulette online strategies
se castiga bani din casino online pokemon fire red gameshark codes mew island real money mobile casino casino moons no deposit bonus codes 2018 grande vegas casino bonus codes
Leave a comment

Posted by on November 2, 2011 in Election Myths, Rebuttals

 

Tags: , , , ,

 
parx casino philly cycling classic start list argosy casino from my location uptown aces casino no deposit bonus codes live casino partners
learn your multiplication facts gambling laws by state morongo casino pool reviews
Richard Charnin's Blog

JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud Analysis

qt slots virtual functions video slots wizard of oz miglior sistema per vincere alla roulette online
best wireless printer for small business roulette game explained progressive slot machines las vegas casino bus trips from san antonio texas