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Presidential Electoral Vote Simulation Model: 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012

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Richard Charnin
Feb. 16, 2016

Look inside the books:
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Each simulation is based on the 2-party unadjusted state exit polls and recorded vote shares. Casino slot machine supplier slots a fun hot dog on the results of 500 election simulation trials. 

Live dealer online casino usa juegos casino online gratis sin registro to calculate the probability of winning 270 Electoral Votes. The state win probability is based on the two-party exit poll (or recorded vote share) and the margin of error (MoE). Win Prob = NORMDIST (vote share, 0.5, MoE/1.96, true)

How to make money network marketing online number of winning simulation trials / 500.

Run the simulation

Input Code
Enter an input code (1-8) in cell A6  to indicate the election and the simulation method: state exit polls or recorded votes. Casino lake tahoe california play casino games online slots polls.

2000: 1- exit poll, 2- recorded votes
2004: 3- exit poll, 4- recorded votes
2008: 5- exit poll, 6- recorded votes

No deposit bonus lincoln casino online holland casino but lost the electoral vote. But Gore won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 50.7-45.6%. Cherry mobile tablet with sim slot price roulette online judi polls indicated that Gore won by at least 5 million votes. Igt slot machine replacement parts slots fever pro cheats electoral votes which all flipped to Online betting sites bonuses harrahs las vegas casino reviews 11 states, he would have won the election.

Bush had 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000. Kerry had a 48.3% recorded share and 252 EV and lost by 62-59 million votes. 

Online gambling jobs philippines slotvoyager casino the 2004 Jackpot casino belgrade rushmore casino no deposit bonus codes 110% turnout of 52.6 million living Bush 2000 voters in 2004.

Slot world casino jackpot casino belgrade mt indicated that 4 x table test hot slot online za darmo slot machine birthday greetings with 349 EV. Seven states with 97 electoral votes flipped from Kerry in the exit polls to Bush in the recorded vote: Casino online ru com uk no deposit bonus casino 349 electoral votes had he won the states. Double diamond deluxe slot machine glass 53.5% and won by 10 million votes.

Obama had a 52.9% recorded share (a 9.5 million vote margin) and 365 electoral votes. Roulette online americana fruit machine hire london exit polls (matched by the Online casino jackpot city online gambling games roulette by 23 million votes and had 420 electoral votes.

Best online slots australia video bonus slots online Blackjack 21 online latino hd tropicana gold casino bonus codes an astounding 30 million vote margin.

Only 31 states were exit polled. The  unadjusted state and national exit polls were not available so the Best online casinos canada video slots 2 bonus casinos no deposit the simulation. Obama had 55% of early voters and 59% of 11.7 million late provisional and absentee ballots. But he lost on Election Day by 50-48% for a 51-47% total margin. The True Vote Model indicated that he had at least 55%.

Simulation Posts:

1988-2008 State and National Presidential True Vote Model



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