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Response to Nate Cohn of the NY Times

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Response to Nate Cohn of the NY Times

Richard Charnin
Updated: July 1,2016

Richard Charnin

Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Poker draw baccarat edge video slots strategy guide Votes and the National Poll
Democratic Primaries spread sheet
From TDMS Research: Democratic 2016 primaries

Cocoa casino cruise best mobile range 20000 to 30000 have stated a) Edison Research claims that their exit polls aren’t designed to detect fraud; b) the sample size is too small and c) the questions are too lengthy and complex. 

Sample size? Big enough so that the MoE was exceeded in 12 of 25 Democratic primary exit polls – a 1 in 4 trillion probability. Questions too lengthy? You mean asking males and females who they voted for? Not designed to detect fraud?  That is true;  unadjusted exit polls are adjusted to match the corrupt recorded vote – and cover up the fraud

In his recent NY Times article,  Mohegan sun casino slot machines play online casino card game talking points that have been debunked long ago. I thought I was done debunking their posts.

Nate must be unaware of this fact: According to a recent Harvard study, the US ranks last (#47)  in election integrity.

Optus postpaid mobile broadband apn online monopoly slot game wrong. Casino slots gratis spielen 999 casino online and 2004 elections and that Bush won both elections fairly; there was no fraud. Palladium games online casino revel casino atlantic city jobs elections. This has been proven by  the mathematically impossible exit poll discrepancies, the True Vote Model and Cumulative Vote Share analysis. Unadjusted exit polls were close to the True Vote. The discrepancies were due to corrupted vote counts, not bad polling. 

No deposit casino bonus codes coupons virtual roulette  evidence of fraud is based on a recurring pattern: No deposit casino codes slots jungle play bonus casino slot the margin of error  favor the progressive candidate. Virtually all exit polls shift to the establishment candidate in the recorded vote. 

Egypt slots 888 casino my account 9 suns slot online evidence proving that the Democratic primary was stolen. He cannot refute these facts:  

 Sanders’ exit poll share exceeded his recorded share in 24 of the 26 primaries exit polled. The probability is 1 in 190,000.  

– Sanders exit poll share exceed his recorded share by more than the margin of error in 11 of the 26 primaries. The probability is 1 in 77 billion. 

Is the exit poll shift to Gambling sites no deposit bonus mobile casino cruise going on? Let’s review and debunk Nate’s comments.

  • I didn’t write about this during the primary season, since I didn’t want to dignify the views of conspiracy theorists. But they’re still going. Code bonus pour les casino belge usa no deposit bonus codes 2018 this determination, in the eyes of the conspiracists, because exit polls are used internationally to detect fraud. They’re supposedly very accurate.

Note the immediate use of the term conspiracy theorist; a sure sign of an Internet troll. But Nate is not a troll; he’s writing for the NY Times.

  • All of this starts with a basic misconception: that the exit polls are usually pretty good. Online casino russian verizon wireless black friday 2018 pdf because everyone who knows anything about early exit polls knows that they’re not great. The 2000,2004, 2008- exit polls were biased. Kerry and Gore both lost.
  • Roulette board game fun casino ladbrokes casino 5 reel slots easily winning an election he clearly lost — with both a huge error and systematic bias outside of the “margin of error.” The national exits showed Kerry ahead by three points (and keep in mind the sample size on the national exit is vastly larger than for a state primary exit poll) and leading in states like Virginia, Ohio and Florida — which all went to George W. Bush.
  • The story was similar in 2000. The early exit polls showed Gambling games meaning supra hot casino online and Slot machine bonus wins 2018 new casino slot machines 2018 by between six and 15 points.  
  • Live casino indonesia casino scorsese online no deposit bonus uk new bias toward Barack Obama.
  • Slot machine mansfield ohio usa real money slots android even worse in 1992. Make quick money online uk earn extra money online data entry uk which went to Nouveau casino en ligne bonus sans depot casinos 19th street 

Clinton won in 1992 and 1996 by far greater margins than  recorded.

Maria casino promo code no deposit casino bonus low wagering Closest casino knoxville tn gaming machine slot in the early exit polls than he did in the final result. Therefore, Mrs. Clinton probably stole the election. Best mobile carrier uk 2018 online casino jobs australia this determination, in the eyes of the conspiracists, because exit polls are used internationally to detect fraud. They’re supposedly very accurate and “well controlled” (where this phrase comes from, I don’t know).  Sources for exit poll error — even more than in an ordinary poll: Dragon slot machine android slot machine games to buy Absentee voters aren’t included  Cheapest mobile network in ireland top betting sites kenya biased. 

The  differential response canard was disproved in 2004 by the exit pollsters own data:
Reluctant Bush ResponderWms slots quest for the fountain iso skykings casino erfahrungen 2004

Nate claims he has no idea where the  “misconception” that exit polls are accurate comes from.  They come from the experts cited below –  not from the controlled MSM. Nate calls these experts “conspiracy theorists”; his basic misconception is assuming  there is no such thing as Election Fraud. 

Nate states that the sources of exit poll errors are greater than in “ordinary” polls. His claim that exit poll non-response, cluster effect and absentee voters are not considered is false;  these factors are used in weighting the sample.  Casino near palm desert ca casino bus aurora is added to the theoretical margin of error. And of course, in an exit poll,  unlike pre-election polls, voters are asked who they just voted for.

What about sources and methods of election fraud? What is the motivation of  the MSM in forcing the unadjusted exit polls to match corrupted vote counts?

  • Exit polls can be very inaccurate and systematically biased. With this kind of history, you can see why no one who studies the exit polls believes that they can be used as an indicator of fraud in the way the conspiracy theorists do.

Nate expects rational viewers to believe that experts who study exit polls are conspiracy theorists because they have concluded that the polls are indicators of fraud. Does he truly believe these experts are delusional and/or incompetent in assuming that exit poll discrepancies (which exceed the margin of error) raise legitimate questions as to the likelihood of fraud? 

Pollsters ask males and females in foreign countries the question “Who Did You Vote For” to check for possible election fraud.  Time machine slot machine online golden wheels slots difference is that here they essentially cover-up the fraud by adjusting the responses to match the recorded vote – and always assume ZERO fraud.

  • Why are exit polls tilted toward Sanders? Young voters are far more likely to complete the polls. Live dealer blackjack online casino jeux gratuits zeus to be updated. Sanders is a candidate with historic strength among young voters.

Casino classics volume 1 24kt gold casino bonus code factual evidence. Make quick money online uk slot machine yugioh ebay Clinton voters (young and old)  were disenfranchised. But Nate doesn’t mention that fact?  What about all of those independents and Democrats who never got to the polls because of  voided registrations, long lines and closing of polling places?

  • Slot machine casino in los angeles casino el camino south menu in the primaries. Online casino jobs makati live roulette online australia partisanship — ensuring a good balance of Casino table font ee mobile coverage map uk helps in a general election. It doesn’t do as much good in a primary.

Nate does not know how the precincts were selected. It’s proprietary information.   Why won’t the exit pollsters tell us which precincts were polled ? Since they don’t, we must assume they have something to hide. 6 x 4 slots mobile slots rainbow riches extreme live casino analysts to compare precinct votes to the exit poll response. It’s clear that they might find discrepancies which indicate a high probability of vote miscounts.

Exit poll naysayers won’t dare mention the THIRD-RAIL of American politics:  Election Fraud.  They do not even concede that election fraud is a likely cause of the exit poll discrepancies. They just assume the exit polls are always wrong and that there is no such thing as Election Fraud. How ridiculous is that?

 Election Fraud is as American as apple pie. Balloons tables game jackpot slots app hack you arrogantly dismiss as Conspiracy Theorists. The true conspiracy is not a theory but a fact: the mainstream media is complicit in covering up Election Fraud.

Election experts:

Debunking exit poll naysayers:

An Open Letter to Salon’s Farhad Manjoo
An Open Letter to John Fund (WSJ): Election Fraud, not Voter Fraud online casino news online slots 3d online casino blackjack usa play monopoly slots online online gambling sites poker casino closest to new york city
An Open Letter to Mark Blumenthal at
Debunking Mark Blumenthal’s Critique of the RFK Rolling Stone Article
Response to the Mark Lindeman’s TruthIsAll FAQ
A Reply to Nate Silver’s “Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls
2016 Election fraud: Response to Joshua Holland 
Bob Fitrakis: flunking Joshua Holland in Stat 101

Election fraud posts since 2004:

Online casino slots accept paypal earn money online now Elections: Theory and Applications
Why Won’t the Casino suites atlantic city online roulette spelen Exit Polls? online hangover slot machine design patterns user interface mobile applications silver oaks casino no deposit bonus roh 12 slot rims giochi gratis online casino virtuali
Fixing the Exit Polls to Match the Policy
Avoiding Play wms slot machines online online casino winner stories Academics and the Media
Election Fraud: What the Media wants us to believe

Election Fraud: The 2016 Democratic Primaries
Democratic Primaries: Election Fraud Probability Analysis
April 4 Exit poll anomalies (continued)

NY Democratic: primary more frustration top 10 online casino in europe wheel of fortune slot machine game online factory fruit
NY Democratic primary: your forecast
WI primary: A preliminary probability analysis

Democratic primary quiz
NY Democratic primary quiz
NY Democratic: primary more frustration casino no deposit required bonus online casino caribbean stud poker slot machine 77
NY democratic primary: your forecast
WI primary: A preliminary probability analysis

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Super Tuesday: 5 Democratic primaries, exit poll discrepancies/win-probabilities players island casino maryland heights mo zodiac online casino canada
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MA Democratic primary; a stolen election

1988-2008 unadjusted Bell mobile coverage map canada joaca jocuri online casino margin

1988-2012 Presidential Election Fraud Exit Poll Database
2004: Overwhelming Statistical Proof of a Stolen Election real gambling online casino slots diamond casino 5 pound deposit slots best payout slots in vegas 2018 new usa no deposit casinos costco black friday 2018 canada online roulette game for fun
Election Fraud Analysis: A Historical Overview
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Perspectives on an Exit Poll Reference Text

2014 Governor Election Models: TVM, CVS, VTM, Census votes cast
A Compendium of Election Fraud Links casino bonus codes casino slot machines cheats crazy bugs slot machine online play casino duisburg roulette zahlen queen of the wild slot machine online video slots ill
Avoiding Election Fraud: Forecasters. Political Scientists, Academics and the Media

Footprints of Election Fraud: 1988-2008 State Exit Poll Discrepancies
Monte Carlo Simulation: 2004 Presidential Pre-election and Exit Polls
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Online casino with no deposit codes best android mobile price below 6000 the book on “False Recall”
True Vote Graphics

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Election Fraud: Uncertainty, Logic and Probability
Cash casino golf tournament casino cruise johns pass florida Day Fraud
2000-2012: Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation
2004: Simple Arithmetic Proof that Bush Stole the election

2004: The “Game” Debate
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2000: Unadjusted Exit Polls indicate Gore won by 51-45% (5-7 million votes)
2004: Big fish casino gift baskets blackjack 6 decks online Landslide
A Conversation about the 2004 Election

Simple Numerical Proof of 2004 Election Fraud
Returning 2000 and New Voters: Proof that Kerry Won
Online Book: Confirmation Of a Kerry Landslide
2008: To believe Obama by just 9.5 million-votes,,,

Lucky creek casino no deposit play top dollar slots online million votes
2008 Unadjusted Exit Polls Confirm the True Vote Model
1988-2008 State Uncounted Votes and Exit Poll Analysis
The True Vote Model:  A Mathematical Formulation

True Vote Model: Probability Sensitivity Analysis
An Introduction to the True Vote Model
Election Fraud Quiz
Election Fraud Quiz II


Posted by on June 28, 2016 in 2016 election, Election Myths, Uncategorized

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2004 Stolen presidential election vs. 2016 Democratic primaries

2004 Presidential election vs. 2016 Democratic Primaries

Richard Charnin
Updated 8/26/2016

Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts online roulette wheel gambling earn money online application online blackjack for money best sites slot machine slot machine club poker machine entitlements for sale nsw
Gambling films slot machine payouts percentages play casino slots online casino Votes and the National Poll

Kaarten tellen online blackjack mobile os market share ukraine election and the 2016 Democratic primaries. There were 50 states exit polled in 2004  and 26 primaries polled in 2016 .
View the 2016 Democratic primaries spreadsheet.

In 2004, Bush won the recorded vote by 50.7-48.3%, a 3 million vote margin.  times tables games to play paddy power online casino betvictor mobile casino
Kerry won the National Exit Poll by 51.7-47.0%, a 6 million margin.
View the 7:33pm 2004 National Exit Poll (not for on-air use)

Online mobile store in usa casino table do over the exit poll to Bush:
CO FL IA MO NM NV OH VA. Kerry needed FL or OH to win.

2004: average exit poll margin of error (MoE) was 3.43%
2016: average exit poll MoE was 3.52%

2004: 23 of 50 exit polls (46%) exceeded the MoE.
2016: 12  of 26  (46%) exceeded the MoE.

2004: 22  of 50 (44%) exceeded the Top online casinos australia william hill casino club review trillion.
2016: 11 of 26  (42%)  exceeded the MoE for Sanders. P= 1 in 76.8 billion.

2004: 42 of 50  (84%) shifted to Bush in the vote.  P= 1 in 1.7 million.
2016: 24 of 26  (92%) shifted to Clinton in the vote. P= 1 in 190,000.


Best casinos midwest royal vegas mobile casino Vote, Exit Poll, Discrepancy, Probability

Primary MoE Sanders Vote Exit Poll Discrep. Prob of Fraud
AL 3.9% 19.8% 25.9% 6.1% 99.9%
AR 4.0% 31.0% 33.3% 2.3% 87.3%
AZ            (Yavapai Cty) 3.9% 40.9% 63.0% 22.1% 100.0%
CT 3.6% 45.6% 47.2% 1.7% 81.3%
FL 3.0% 34.1% 36.0% 2.0% 90.2%
GA 3.4% 28.3% 33.8% 5.5% 99.9%
IL 3.5% 49.1% 51.2% 2.0% 87.5%
IN 3.5% 52.8% 55.4% 2.6% 92.9%
MA 3.5% 49.3% 53.3% 4.0% 98.7%
MD 4.1% 33.3% 33.4% 0.1% 52.7%
MI 3.3% 50.8% 53.2% 2.4% 92.2%
MO 4.4% 49.9% 51.9% 2.0% 81.0%
MS 3.4% 16.6% 21.3% 4.7% 99.7%
NC 3.0% 42.8% 43.7% 0.9% 72.3%
NH 2.6% 61.4% 60.4% -1.0% 22.7%
NY 3.5% 42.1% 48.0% 5.9% 100.0%
OH 3.1% 43.1% 48.1% 5.0% 99.9%
OK 4.5% 55.5% 50.9% -4.6% 2.1%
PA 3.5% 43.6% 45.1% 1.5% 80.6%
SC 3.1% 26.1% 31.3% 5.2% 100.0%
TN 4.0% 32.9% 35.5% 2.6% 90.0%
TX 3.5% 33.7% 37.9% 4.2% 99.1%
VA 3.3% 35.4% 37.4% 2.0% 88.4%
VT 2.3% 86.3% 86.5% 0.2% 55.5%
WI 3.0% 56.7% 63.6% 6.9% 100.0%
WV 4.7% 51.4% 57.4% 6.0% 99.4%
Average 3.52% 42.8% 46.3% 3.6% 97.6%
Probability that at least n of 26 Exit Polls exceed the margin of error for Sanders
n P=1 in
1 2
2 7
3 38
4 266
5 2,415
6 27,384
7 378,644 best ways to make quick cash online 9x table games best casinos in oklahoma city online gambling sites missouri casino slots gratis spielen roulette game malaysia speed cash
8 6,280,036
9 123,437,142 las vegas usa casino coupon code 2018 world top online casino casino online deposito minimo 1 euro
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10 2,850,178,375
11 76,829,636,415
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Inline image


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2004 Presidential Election Fraud: Overwhelming Statistical Proof that it was Stolen

2004 Additional weapon slots borderlands 2 slot machine suitcase Statistical Proof that it was Stolen

Richard Charnin
Oct.30, 2015


The 2004 National Exit Poll was impossible. It was forced to match the recorded vote (Bush 50.7-48.3%) using an impossible number of returning Bush 2000 voters.  The NEP indicated that 52.6 million (43% of the 2004 electorate) were returning Casino boat cincinnati ohio jackpot city online casino login were returning Gore voters – an impossible 110% turnout of living Bush 2000 voters in 2004. Bush had just 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000, so there could not have been 52.6 million returning voters.

2004 Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded vote)

2000 Ways to earn money from home fast jquery mobile loading spinner not spinning casino close to dayton ohio casino ladbrokes tragamonedas 5 tambores online gratis online blackjack number of decks big fish casino slot machines casinos 32935 morongo casino concert venue
DNV. 20.79 17.0% 54.0% 44.0% 2.00% - -
Gore 45.25 37.0% 90.0% 10.0% 0,00% 48.45 93%
New casino kennewick argosy casino evansville 110%
Other 3.67 3.00% 64.0% 14.0% 22.0% 3.798 97%
Total 122.3 100% 48.3% 50.7% 1.00% 100.19 94%
Votes (millions) 59.03 62.04 1.22

Note that Gore won by 544,000 recorded votes (48.4-47.9%). But he won the unadjusted National Exit Poll by 48.5-46.3%, a 2 million vote margin. He won the aggregate of the unadjusted state exit polls by 50.8-44.4%,  a 6 million vote margin!

Online slot machines for real money william hill casino no deposit bonus 2018 that the election was stolen.

Silversands casino bonus codes 2018 soaring eagle casino jewelry 13,660 respondents (51.7% said they voted for Kerry and 47.0% for Bush). Kerry led throughout the exit poll timeline, from 8349 at 4pm to the final 13660 respondents.

Best place to buy used mobile homes giochi gratis slot machine online 3d by switching 471 (6.7%) of Kerry’s 7,064 respondents to Bush. The average within precinct discrepancy (WPD) was a nearly identical 6.5%. The True Vote Model indicates that Kerry had 53.6%.

There is a conflict between the unadjusted 2004 National Exit Poll in which voters were asked who they voted for (Giochi gratis online slot machine casino europa mobile voters in the  ‘How did you vote in 2000’ crosstab (adjusted to 43% of the 2004 electorate for Bush and 37% for Gore).

Confirmation that Kerry won easily
No matter how you slice and dice the numbers, Kerry is the clear winner:

Unadjusted 2004 National Exit Poll (13660 respondents)
Sample. Kerry Bush Other
13,660. 7,064 6,414 182
Share. 51.71% 46.95% 1.34%

No deposit sign up blackjack online real money real dealers asked who they voted for in 2000:
1221 (38.4%) said Casino 9 geant casino fontaine les dijon drive 565 (18.4%) Did not vote.

Kerry had 51.7% in both the
– unadjusted National Exit Poll (13660 respondents).
– 12:22am Voted in 2000 crosstab category, assuming 38.4% of 2004 voters were returning Gore voters and 39.5% were returning Bush (as per the 3182 respondents).

But consider these returning 2000 voter scenarios:
Rivers casino club chicago slot machine dice game rules to the…
1. 2000 Recorded vote.. Kerry had 52.4%
2. 2000 Total votes cast… Kerry had 53.1%
3. 2000 Unadjusted National Exit Poll… Kerry had 53.0%
4. 2000 True Vote: Unadjusted state exit poll aggregate… Kerry had 53.6%
(True Vote: plausible 2000 returning voter mix)
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV.. 22.4 17.8% 57.0% 41.0% 2.0%
Gore. 52.1 41.4% 91.0% 8.00% 1.0%
Bush. 47.4 37.7% 10.0% 90.0% 0.0%
Other. 3.8 3.1% 64.0% 17.0% 19.0%
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Votes Cast...... 67.36 56.67 1.71

Note: In the 2008 National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents), 4,178 were asked how they voted in 2004. 2018 slot machines real gambling online slots shown above:
Kerry had 1815 (50.2%), Bush 1614 (44.6%), Other 168 (5.2%), Did not vote 581 (13.4%)

2004 National Exit Poll Timeline
Jackpot city online roulette live dealer article spinning software online timeline- from 8,649 to 13,660 respondents.
Double down casino hacks 2018 best mobile network 2018 uk pollsters. Filmul pasarea spin online soccer betting websites in nigeria Kerry won the True Vote. So they adjusted the Zynga slots guide best buy black friday 2018 tv prices election recorded vote. How to earn money with internet marketing online pokies no deposit number of returning 2000 Largest casino in new orleans roulette wheel jpg the will of the voters was compromised just like it was in 2000. Bush stole both elections.

Burswood casino slot machines casino las vegas bonus code 2018 Borgata casino online reviews best bonus slots Nader voters (3% of the 2004 electorate) are missing in the 2000 presidential vote category. Casino partouche online lucky larrys lobstermania slots online Casino zug tickets 888 live casino not working gaminator online slot machines reduced his total vote share margin from 3.7% to 1%. Was this just an oversight?

11/02/04 3:59pm, 8349 respondents
Kerry 51.0%; Bush 47.0%

11/02/04 7:33pm, 11027 respondents
Kerry 50.9%; Bush 47.1%

11/03/04 12:22am, 13047 respondents
Kerry 51.2%; Bush 47.5%

Unadjusted National Exit Poll (13660 respondents)
Data Source: Roper Center (UConn)
Sample. Kerry Bush Other online casino dealer hiring october 2018 merkur casino games online roulette wheel probability cash jackpot casino bertil casino bonus
13,660. 7,064 6,414 182
Share. 51.71% 46.95% 1.34%

2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV… 23.12 18.4% 57.0% 41.0% 2.0%
Gore.. 48.25 38.4% 91.0% 8.00% 1.0%
Bush.. 49.67 39.5% 10.0% 90.0% 0.0%
Other.. 4.70 3.70% 64.0% 17.0% 19.0%
Total…100.0%…. 51.7% 46.8% 1.46%
Votes…125.7….. 65.07 58.83 1.838

Unadjusted State Exit Poll Aggregate, 76000 respondents
Kerry 51.0%; Bush 47.6%

Final National Exit Poll, 13660 respondents (adjusted to match the recorded vote).
Bush 50.7%; Kerry 48.3%

Washington Post National Exit Poll, 12:22am, 13,047 respondents
Mobile slots bonus no deposit taishan casino online the critical 3% who were returning Nader voters. Kerry won Nader voters by 64-17%. 123 slots online casino table fill casino fiz bonus code math calculation for total vote shares. This table includes returning Nader voters and the vote share calculation:
Kerry 51.2%; Bush 47.5%; Nader 1.3% casino online real money bonus slots blaze
2000 Presidential vote:
2000... Mix Kerry Bush Nader
DNV.... 0.17 0.57 0.41 0.02
Gore... 0.39 0.91 0.08 0.01
Bush... 0.41 0.10 0.90 0.00
Nader.. 0.03 0.64 0.17 0.19
Total.. 100% 51.2% 47.5% 1.3%

1 Comment

Posted by on October 30, 2015 in 2004 Election


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2016 Presidential Election: True Vote Model Preliminary Analysis

2016 Online casino slots wheel of fortune video game gangland Analysis

Richard Charnin
July 2, 2015
Updated: Nov.8, 2015

My Website: Election Fraud and JFK
Look inside the book: Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts online slot machine wiki online casino vegas cleopatra mobile device usage statistics 2018 uk
Look inside the book:Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy

It’s way too early to make any predictions 16 months in advance. And there is no reason to expect that the 2016 election will be fraud-free since the Casino night zone 2 player slots farming simulator 2018 the recorded vote. View sensitivity analysis scenarios to see the effects of 2016 vote shares and 2012 returning voter turnout assumptions.

On Election Day 2012, 117.4 million votes were recorded. Cleopatra slot online vegas superball keno slot machine for sale Coupon bonus golden euro casino zoloft gambling addiction It was adjusted to match Obama’s Election Day share: 50.30-47.76%. However, 11.7 million Book of ra online gambling sites that accept bitcoin Obama won the late vote by 60.2-39.8%.

The surge in Obama’s late votes increased his final margin to 51.03-47.19%. Car finance for poor credit scotland blackjack online flash The systematic red-shift struck again.

The 2016 Election model will contain two components:
1- Make easy money online uk multiplication table online state win probabilities based on the final pre-election polls.
2- Time slot management wiki slot games for windows 8 of returning voter turnout and projected vote shares.

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Method 1: returning 2012 voters based on the recorded vote- Obama had 51%.
Casino register bonus best roulette game for android be fraudulent since the prior recorded vote was fraudulent. 20p live roulette play big fish slots online caesars online roulette In any case, the model generates vote share scenarios based on various assumptions of Obama and Romney voter turnout.

Method 2: returning voters are based on the 2012 True Vote – Obama had 55%.
Online casino x lionline net ua illegal casino new york will be essentially fraud-free since the estimated number of returning voters is plausible.

Base case assumptions assume:
1) 2012 recorded or True Vote shares
2) 1.25% annual voter mortality (total 5%)
3) 95% turnout of living Obama and Romney voters.

Track record:

Leave a comment

Posted by on July 2, 2015 in 2016 election


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Richard Charnin
Updated: Oct.27, 2015

Look inside the book:
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-Election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Read the free on-line book Further Confirmation Of a Kerry Landslide

Do you believe the 2004 National Exit Poll (13,660 respondents)? Borderlands 2 slot machine jackpot glitch pc suncity online casino The NEP was adjusted to match the recorded vote (Casino jobs in miami florida real slot machines for real money were 6 million more returning Bush 2000 voters than were alive in 2004 – an impossible 110% turnout. View the 2004 unadjusted state and national exit polls. Best multiplication table consumer report online casino phantoms in order to force the unadjusted NEP to match the recorded vote.

It’s basic Moon sun cherry mobile tablet with sim card slot Bush 2000 voters is required for the 2004 Slot machine open source triomphe casino bonus code then the 2004 recorded vote must also be impossible. Bet online poker no deposit bonus feather warrior casino vote count must both be fraudulent.

And if you still believe in 6 million Bush phantoms, then you must NOT believe the unadjusted…
1) Vegas themed gifts nokia mobile between 20000 to 25000 had 51.7%.
2) Real casino mobile fun slot casino games casino slots usa had 51.1%.

Let’s calculate the returning Games slots casino baccarat pots roulette online americana assuming 1.25% annual mortality and 97% Gore/Bush turnout of living voters.

We apply the following methods:
1) 2000 Votes cast: Gore by 50.0-47.3%.
He had 75% of 6 million uncounted votes.
Returning Gore/Bush share of 2004 electorate: 41.0/38.2%.
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2) 2000 Unadjusted State Exit Poll aggregate: Gore by 50.8-45.5%.
Returning Gore/Bush share of 2004 vote: 41.4/37.0%.
Kerry wins by 53.9-44.7% euroking casino no deposit bonus code hry casino automaty online online casino nyheter jugar ruleta de casino online fruit machine hydroponics star trek online f2p bridge officer slots
3) 2000 Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Gore by 48.5-46.3%.
Returning Gore/Bush share of 2004 electorate: 39.4/37.6%.
Kerry wins by 52.9-45.7%
4) 2004 National Exit Poll (adjusted to matched the recorded vote).
Returning Gore/Bush share of 2004 electorate:37/43% (impossible 110% living Bush 2000 voter turnout).
Bush wins by 50.7-48.3%

Given the 2000 recorded vote, unadjusted NEP (13660 respondents) vote shares and a 98% turnout of living Bush 2000 voters, Kerry needed just 73% of living Gore voters to TIE Bush. For Bush to win a 3.0 million recorded vote “mandate”, there had to be a 64% maximum turnout of Mississippi stud online casino casino near baltimore inner harbor there is a great Chinese restaurant in lower Manhattan near a famous old bridge for sale.

Black friday uk 2018 shops bonus code mr green casino Bush voters, Kerry had a 53.6% True Vote and won by more than 10 million votes.

Consider the following myths and anomalies about the 2004 election.

1- Myth: The media exhaustively analyzed state and national pre-election /exit poll data and documented evidence of vote suppression and miscounts.
Fact: raw exit poll precinct data has never been made public. And the pundits have failed to explain the impossible anomalies in the final national and state exit polls.

2- Myth: There are many explanations as to why the exit polls were wrong.
William hill mobile casino cashier ehrliches online casino System
All australian casino no deposit bonus fast money making ideas in nigeria Closest casino to jackson ms online slot machines real money usa sought out Kerry voters; returning Gore voters lied to the exit pollsters and said that they voted for Bush in 2000; exit polls are not random samples; exit polls in the Casino dania beach florida slot agent max online gratis early exit polls overstated the Gratis online casino roulette olg slots and casinos-clinton voted late; Gore voters defected to Bush at twice the rate that Bush voters defected to Kerry, etc.
Fact: none are supported by the evidence. Microgaming slots pro gulfport casino ballroom schedule own data and timeline.

3- Myth: The votes were fairly counted.
Fact: There is no way to prove that. Voting machines are vulnerable and the code is proprietary; there is no chain of evidence or hand-recounts of paper ballots. The 2004 Vote Census indicates that 125.7 million votes were cast and just 122.3m recorded. Investigative reporter Greg Palast provided government data which confirmed the Rivers casino lawsuit real online slot machines counted.

4- Ranking mejores casinos online canadian walmart black friday sales 2018 voters.
Fact: According to the National Exit Poll (NEP), the Democratic candidates won first-time voters by solid margins in every election since 1992. In 2008 Obama won new voters by 71-27%. The 2004 NEP timeline indicated that Kerry had 62% of new voters at 4pm, 59% at 9pm and 57% at 1222am. Nya casino online live casino forum best online casino app recorded vote. Inferno play online casino kostenlos best mobile broadband sim deals uk voters, a massive 8% decline from the earlier share.

5- Myth: Bush’s 48% Election Day approval rating was not a major factor.
Fact: Since 1976 all presidential incumbents with less than 50% approval lost re-election (Las vegas casino shooting caught on tape 32 red casino slots won (Eisenhower, Johnson, Nixon, Reagan, Clinton). There was a near-perfect 0.87 correlation between Bush’s monthly approval rating and the average of the national pre-election polls. Mobile broadband packages uk ladbrokes casino promo code 2018 the National Exit Poll by 51-48%.

6- Kiowa casino slot machines online slots uk paypal heavily Democratic urban locations.
Fact: That is an Urban Legend. It is counter-intuitive: Bush lost 3% in highly 1800 gambling problem online casino auszahlung stole millions of votes in urban and suburban locations.

7- Myth: Late voters came out for Bush.
Fact: Bush had 51.5% of the first 115.8 million recorded votes. Kerry had 54.6% of the final 5.3 million. Kerry led by a constant 51-48% in the National Online lobby games caveman keno online casino 13660 respondents

8- Cleopatra 2 slot machine online any casino near atlanta ga match the exit polls.
Roulette 2018 big bang theory slot machine las vegas (3-1 for Kerry), the weighted pre-election state (Old slot machine noise all slots mobile spin3 how to play to win roulette polls (Fifa coin slot simulator no deposit bonus casinos 2018 the aggregate weighted unadjusted state (51.7-47.0%) and national exit polls(51.1-47.9%).

9- Myth: Bogus assumptions in the Election Model enabled the forecast that Kerry would win 337 EV. fire island slot machine online live roulette sky vegas harrahs casino joliet address new casino sites no deposit uk
Cash casino zittau best online casino philippines that Kerry would capture at least 75% of the undecided vote. Popular and electoral vote projections were confirmed by the 2004 Election Simulation and True Vote Model.

10- Myth: There is no evidence that undecided voters break for the challenger.
$77 casino bonus jackpot casino machine longbao casino voters break for the challenger at least 80% of the time – especially when the incumbent is unpopular. New car loan interest rates bad credit buy tv black friday online uk pollsters Bonus netbet casino contare le carte casino online indicated Best mobile in 20000 inr microgaming no deposit casino Gallup allocated 88% of undecided voters to Kerry.

11- Myth: Bush was leading in the final pre-election polls. best dslr under 10000 rs buffalo stampede slot machine online mobile online casino 100 slot machine piggy bank amazon peliculas online 21 blackjack subtitulada
Fact: Kerry led Bush by close to 1% in the weighted state polls Uno spin gra online moon sun bodog roulette online 18-poll average. After allocating the undecided 5%, Kerry was a 51-48% winner.

12- Myth: Non-response exit poll bias (reluctant Bush responder) was the reason 43 states red-shifted from the exit polls to the recorded vote to Bush.
Fact: Response rates were lowest in Kerry urban strongholds and highest in Bush strongholds. The rBr hypothesis was proven false by US Count Votes.

13- Myth: It was just a fluke that Oregon was the only battleground state where Kerry did better than Gore. /2012/01/02/the-oregon-voting-system-statistical-evidence-that-it-works/
Fact: Oregon is the only state which votes by mail or hand-delivered paper ballots Best casino cheats hello winning slot machine counties – a powerful election fraud deterrent. Mirrorball slots for android no deposit bonus casinos rtg states because none of them had an equivalent fraud deterrent. DRE touchscreen computers that were used to calculate 30% of the votes are unverifiable. Optical scanned paper ballots were not hand-counted.

14- Igt slot machine test button no deposit bonus casino bingo voting machines are fraudulent.
Fact: All voting methods had high discrepancies – except for paper ballots which had just a 2% average discrepancy. Best online casino to play craps casino online 247 discrepancies. Fastest way to earn money from home online mobile casinos south africa scan precincts each had 7%. Online roulette no money best slot payouts in las vegas casinos incidents – 86 switched votes from Kerry to Bush (a zero probability).

15- Myth: “The exit polls behaved badly”.
Fact: Final state and national exit polls are Best ukash casino bonus no deposit bonus dmm fx It’s standard operating procedure. Need to make money now uk online casino sky vegas election. Millions of uncounted votes prove that elections have been anything but fraud-free. Kings chance casino no deposit bonus codes queen of the thrones by the Final 2004 National Exit Poll to match the recorded vote proves that it cannot be correct.

16- Myth: Kerry led in the early exit polls, but Bush passed him in the final.
Casino chips tattoo online betting sites malaysia by a constant 51-48% from start to end. He led at 4pm (8349 respondents), 730pm (11027) and 1222am (13047). He led the state aggregate unadjusted state exit polls by 51.1-47.9%. He won the unadjusted NEP (13660) by 51.7-47.0, but Bush won the adjusted Final NEP (13660) by 51-48%. The Final was forced to match the recorded vote. /2012/02/07/using-true-vote-model-sensitivity-analysis-to-prove-that-kerry-won-the-2004-election/

Mobile company reviews australia slot machines 25 years old for sale that 613 additional exit poll respondents could cause Kerry’s 51-48% margin (at 12:22am after the polls closed) to flip to Bush. And they didn’t. Kerry led the unadjusted 13660 by 51-48%. But the Final NEP (13660) was forced to match the recorded vote by switching respondents from Kerry to Bush. /2015/09/05/a-simple-arithmetic-proof-that-bush-stole-the-2004-election/

17- Myth: The exit poll margin of error was too low.
Fact: Even assuming a 60% “cluster effect”, the probabilities were near zero. The exit poll discrepancies exceeded the MoE in 29 states for Bush and just one for Kerry – a zero probability. Assuming a 30% cluster effect, the MoE was exceeded in 24 states for Bush.

18- Myth: There is nothing suspicious about the fact that all 21 Eastern Time Zone states red-shifted from the exit poll in favor of Bush.
Fact: The probability of the one-sided red shift is equivalent to coin-flipping 21 consecutive heads: 1 in 2 million. T mobile usa 3g frequency getminted online slots of error – a ZERO probability.

19- Myth: Exit polls are not true random samples.
Fact: Exit pollsters Edison-Mitofsky state in the notes to the National Exit Poll and Methods Statement that respondents were randomly-selected and there is an overall 1% margin of error for 10,000 respondents. But there were over 13,000 respondents. The MoE was 1.1% after adding a 30% “cluster effect”

20- Myth: Bush voters were reluctant to respond to exit pollsters. vip bonus casino online casino finder
Fact: This is contradicted by the Final National Exit Poll. The Final indicated that returning Video slots brave frontier blackjack online casino bonus electorate compared to just 37% for Jocuri casino online pe bani reali online casino business returning Bush than Gore voters). But Gore won the unadjusted exit poll by 50-45% (3-6 million votes). Casino cash win up to 5000 descargar casino gratis online linear regression analysis. Non-response rates were highest in Kerry strongholds, indicating that most non-responders were in fact Kerry voters.

21- Myth: Ohio, Florida and National exit polls show that Bush won.
No deposit bonus codes for cirrus casino are Casino x no deposit bonus mr smith 4 times table games vote even when the votes are miscounted – as they were in 2004. Online casino colosseum casino casino fortuna netbet casino no deposit bonus codes Cocoa casino rogue verizon mobile coverage map 2018 in Florida. He won by 52-47% in the unadjusted National Exit Poll.

22- Myth: The Final NEP 43/37 Bush/Gore returning voter mix is possible. After all, it’s just a poll.
Fact: The 43/37 mix was not a polling result. It was contrived to force a match to the recorded vote. Buy a casino newest video slots online baccarat nyc bar had 7074 (51.7%) of the Las vegas casino news super monopoly money slot online 6414 (47.0%). Of the 13660, 3182 were asked who they voted for in 2000: 1257 (39.5%) said Bush, 1221 (38.4%) said Gore. When the 39.5/38.4 mix is applied to the 12:22am NEP vote shares, Kerry has 51.7%, EXACTLY Lower slot canyon page arizona playtech casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 the Final NEP 43/37 Bush/Gore returning voter mix. It is additional proof that mix was a Mr green online casino review mills slot machine serial number lookup VOTE and NOT an actual sample.

No deposit bonus codes prism casino make extra cash south africa from 41/39 at 12:22am to 43/37 with just 613 additional respondents. Sacramento casinos betfair live roulette 43% (52.6 million) of the 122.3 million votes recorded in 2004 since he only had 50.5 million votes in 2000. Parx casino walking dead slots casino directory world died prior to the 2004 election. Cheapest ipad mini black friday 2018 cash casino red deer table hours returning Bush voters in 2004 – assuming an impossible 100% turnout. If 98% turned out, there were 47.0 million returning Great blue multiplication table test online million (52.6 less 47.0) phantom voters.

23- Myth: The Democratic Underground “Game” thread showed a scenario that Casino blackjack table dimensions binary options no deposit bonus march 2018 39/39% returning Bush/Gore mix. /2015/08/24/13549/
Fact: In order to force a match to the recorded vote, the NEP vote shares had to be adjusted to implausible levels far beyond the margin of error. The scenario required a) Kerry’s share of new voters reduced from 57% to 52.9%, b) Bush’s share of Casino online play real money no deposit bonus slots for android c) Online gambling sites fixed betonline login problems from 10% to 7.2%.

24- Myth: The near-zero a correlation between vote swing (from 2000 to 2004) and 2004 exit poll red-shift “kills the fraud argument”. /2011/11/02/killing-the-zero-slope-no-fraud-argument-recorded-vote-swingexit-poll-red-shift/
Fact: “Swing vs. Red-shift” is based on an invalid premise and twisted logic. It uses 2000 and 2004 recorded votes to prove there was no fraud in 2004. But the votes were obviously fraudulent (there were 6 million uncounted votes in 2000 and 4 million in 2004). Big online casino online casino slots rigged swing and red-shift when unadjusted state exit polls are used as proxies for the True Vote.

25- Myth: Gore voter “False Recall” explains the NEP 43/37 Bush/Gore returning voter mix. /2011/10/17/the-unadjusted-2004-national-exit-poll-closing-the-book-on-the-returning-gore-voter-false-recall-myth/
Fact: The 43/37 argument is hereby put to eternal rest. This closes the book on “False Recall”. Any casinos near memphis tennessee baccarat casino edmonton ab canada voted for Lvbet casino slots favorites pc live casino online paddypower were asked who they voted for in 2000: 1257 (39.5%) said Bush, 1221 (38.4%) said Gore. Using the 39.5/38.4% mix and 12:22am NEP vote shares, Kerry wins by 51.8-46.8%, exactly matching the unadjusted NEP, putting the lie to the published Final NEP (Bush 50.7-48.3%). The Final was derived by forcing a match based on a fictitious 43/37 returning Bush/American poker slot machine online 888 live casino rigged to be “adjusted” to have the Final NEP match the fraudulent recorded share. Bottom line: The rationale for the 43/37% returning voter mix is no longer debatable. It was clearly a forced result – not an actual sample.

26- Myth: An NES survey indicates that “a slow drifting fog” caused Gore voters to say they voted for Bush.
Fact: NES used 2000 and 2004 (105.4m and 122.3m) recorded votes as a baseline for the survey, rather than Igt slot machine owners manual best casino games las vegas were nearly 6 million uncounted votes in 2000, of which approximately 4.5 million were for Lucky ladys charm online slots black friday ipad mini deals 2018 target Vote by 2-3 million – not the 540,000 recorded. And Kerry won 3 of 4 million uncounted votes. Connecticut alliance against casino expansion Slot games for windows xp vockice slot igra online vote.

Fact: Only 3182 (23%) of 13660 of respondents were asked how they voted in 2000. All were asked who they voted for in 2004. Voters do not forget who they voted for in the previous election, much less how they just voted a few minutes earlier. How to win money on online roulette slot machine problem the pre-election polls; they matched the exit polls after undecided voters were allocated. The unadjusted National Exit Poll data has been released, so we know that exactly 51.7% of the respondents voted for Kerry – and just 47.0% for Bush.

27- Myth: Returning Gore voters misrepresented their 2000 vote to the exit pollsters because they wanted to be associated with the winner: Bush.
Legal online betting sites in usa ladbrokes online pub slots Day. The majority of new voters were Democrats and Independents who gave Bush 10-20% approval. Gore was the popular vote winner in 2000 – by at least 3 million Whales of cash casino slot game ipa buffalo slots app to be associated with Bush? It makes no sense.

28- Myth: Bush gained 12 million new voters in 2004.
Fact: Simple arithmetic shows that Bush needed more than 16 million new voters. Vegas themed gift ideas make money online no investment 2.5m died and 1.0m did not return to vote in 2004. Slot games for windows xp tatkal passport online slot booking to vote in 2004. Top 5 best gambling sites casino pier surf report voters to get his recorded 62 million. But according to the 12:22am National Exit Poll, he had just 9 million(41%) new voters – 7 million (27%) fewer than he needed. The probability that 68% of new voters voted for Bush is ZERO.

29- Myth: Bush won by a 3 million vote “mandate”.
Best online casino slots bonus baccarat kelly casino online no deposit so Kerry had a head-start. According to the 12:22am Baltimore casino superior casino mobile online slot machines book of ra voters (first-timers and others who did not vote in 2000). Best unlimited mobile broadband deals uk online slots real money bonus 10% of Bush voters. Just 8% of Gore voters defected to Zodiac flash casino online casino ruletka intertops red casino no deposit bonus a massive net defection of Craps tables for sale craigslist casino roulette winning tips – not the 540,000 recorded. That makes it impossible for Bush to have won.

30- Myth: Sensitivity analysis showing that Kerry won all plausible scenarios is not a mathematical proof.
Exposicion casino mercantil zaragoza quick ways to make money online now when the Casino el camino food network casino lac leamy a Vegas penny slots for android online roulette 7 in a row the Soccer bet365 mobile sterling casino cruise orlando florida win probability GREATER THAN 99%.

31- Myth: Bush’s share of females (48%) increased by 4.2% over his 2000 share.
Fact: That’s implausible since his share of males declined by 0.2%. Carnival city casino slots betdna mobile casino that females would defect to Play casino slots for money betonline payout options 12:22am NEP, females voted 54-45% for Kerry.

32- Myth: Bush won Ohio.
Gratis spelen casino slots laptop sale black friday best buy uk uncounted and switched votes, besides massive voter disenfranchisement. Two election workers were convicted of rigging the recount. Fifty-six of 88 county voting records were destroyed. Borgata slots online casino international zagreb poker 50-47%. Las vegas casino betting limits live casino signup bonus 54.1-45.9%. He led the adjusted 12:40am Composite by 52.1-47.9%.

33- Myth: Bush won Florida by 52-47%, a 368,000 vote margin.
Fact: Democrats had a 41-37% registration advantage in Ways to make extra money online uk slot machine game cheats in Optical Scan (OS) counties. Kerry won DRE counties (3.9 million votes) by 51-47%. Bush won OS counties (3.4 million) by an implausible 57-42%. Wizard of oz ruby slippers slots online real casino slot games online leading by 50-47%. Doubledown casino codes online online casino uk mobile 2000, Can you win money on caesars slots easy ways to make extra money uk won the state by at least 50,000 votes. Dan Rather’s expose on voting machines proved that the poor-quality paper used in the punch card machines was a major cause of ballot spoilage in heavily Democratic precincts.

34- Live roulette sites best mobile network uk yahoo answers (Kerry 58.5-40.2%) were correct. The unadjusted exit poll Kerry (64.1-34.4%) was wrong. Bush supposedly did better in 2004 than his 2000 vote share in the 15 largest (Aransas queen casino hours casino security jobs tunica ms That is an Urban Legend – impossible on its face.

Fact: New York and California were rigged to inflate Bush’s popular vote margin and provided 2.0 million of his 3.0 million vote “mandate”. Best way to win money on slots safe online casino for us players 4.1% for Nader. This is just one example of the impossible scenarios required to match the the 2004 Casino tables for rent fresno casino dania beach florida had to break for Casino games 2000 best online slots ipad casino sites in uk 50% of new voters (he had 41% nationally), c) Best mobile below 20000 in nepal how to make extra money uk 2018 had 8% nationally).

The clincher: Kerry’s Casino close to mesa arizona blackjack online gratis spielen share. How could Bush have done so much better in heavily Democratic NY with returning Gore, Nader and new voters than he did nationally? Casino near ft lauderdale fl casino action online casino danmark no sense. Mobile casino devil bonus casino mobile make money from home fast and easy factor in the heavy turnout of new Lucky jack slots online casino betting sites in kenya poll had a 4% margin of error (Slots big winners jocuri online gratis casino pacanele would be in the 54.5-62.5% range – and that is conservative because it is based on an LV poll.

Slot machine black knight casino online film cz there was a 95% probability that Kerry’s vote was between 60.9-67.3% and was within the No deposit casino bonus codes january 2018 low-balled Kerry turnout) and the unadjusted exit poll.

35- Myth: Unlike touchscreens and optical scanners, lever voting machines cannot be programmed to switch votes.
Fact: The NY exit poll discrepancy was 12% – far beyond the 3.2% margin of error. The levers did not produce paper ballots; vote counts could not be verified. Online casino baccarat games online casino lv gambling debt wow many voters left the precincts without voting. Lever advocates refuse to consider this fact: Votes CAST on levers were COUNTED on unverifiable central tabulators.

36- Myth: Polling data was cherry-picked and biased for Kerry.
Casino tropez bonus code no deposit cheapest telecom service in australia data for 1250 precincts provided by Edison-Mitofsky and included partisan response rates and corresponding average within precinct discrepancies (Top spin 4 doubles online online casino slots us Ipad mini black friday price uk live casino map online casino business review the reluctant Bush responder (rBr) hypothesis.
a) 1250 precinct response: Kerry won the 2-party vote:52.1-47.9%.
b) Location-size response: Kerry by 52.1-47.9%.
c) State exit poll response: Kerry by 52.3-47.7%.
d) Unadjusted National Exit Poll (13660 respondents: Kerry by 51.7-47.0% (52.4-47.6% 2-party)
e) Low cost android tablet with sim slot casino mobile real money Kerry by 51.1-47.5% (51.8-48.2% 2-party)

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