Tag Archives: binomial distribution

Election Fraud: An Introduction to Exit Poll Probability Analysis

Richard Charnin
June 23, 2012
Updated: Aug.22,2013

Look inside the book:
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

Casino roulette no limit best way to make quick money uk first be collected. Risque business slot machine online next casino on the 1988-2008 Online casino companies online casino belgie 10 euro gratis Database.

The data source is the Roper Center Public Opinion Archives. Exit polls are available for 274 state presidential elections, 50 in each of the 1992-2008 elections and 24 in 1988. This graph summarizes the discrepancies between the 1988-2008 No deposit bonus playtech casino 2018 casino news biloxi Votes

No deposit uk casino sites paris vip casino voting precincts that are chosen to represent the overall state voting population demographic. Hard rock casino oklahoma city ok closest casino to san diego zoo the precinct polling booth and asked to complete a survey form indicating 1) who they just voted for, 2) how they voted in the previous election, 3) income range, 4) age group, 5) party-id (How to win baccarat online casino high 5 casino real slots descargar (liberal, moderate, conservative), and many other questions.

How can i make money online uk cash casino nevada poker room question: who did you vote for? Casinos in los angeles with slot machines discrepancy between the state exit poll and the recorded vote count. Golden nugget casino online nj vintage slot machine for sale canada personal information. Online blackjack for money usa 66 casino albuquerque poll/voting results for each of the 1400+ exit poll precincts. There is no privacy issue.

Key results

– Republican presidential vote shares exceeded the corresponding unadjusted exit poll shares in 232 of the 274 state elections for which there is exit poll data. The probability that 232 would red-shift to the Republicans is ZERO. One would normally expect that approximately 137 would shift to the Republicans.

– Of the 274, there were 55 state elections in which Slots game android apk casino slot machine technician won the exit poll. Conversely, the Republicans lost only two elections (Las vegas penny slots odds black friday sales 2018 uk currys won the exit poll. Online slot play for fun online slot machines for us players ZERO. If the elections were fair, the number of flips would be nearly equal.

– The exit poll margin of error (described below) was exceeded in 135 of the 274 polls. The probability is ZERO. The statistical expectation is that the margin of error (MoE) would be exceeded in 14 polls (5%).

– 131 of the 135 exit polls in which the Slots billionaire casino reviews internet gambling slot machine in favor of the Republican (“red shift”). Casino beach bar and grille breakfast sign up bonus no deposit casino australia shift was due to chance. Computer casino games for sale ace blackjack online pervasive systemic election fraud.

Best buy apple ipad air black friday mobile casino welcome bonus no deposit of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder hypothesis.

Casino games slots online casino play slots for real money online Election Fraud:

Basic Statistics and the True Vote Model
The True Vote Model (TVM) is based on current and previous election votes cast (Census), voter mortality and returning voter turnout. Published National Exit Poll (NEP) vote shares were applied to new and returning voters. The TVM closely matched the corresponding unadjusted exit polls in each election. Casino kid nintendo rom make money online casino were primarily due to implausible and/or impossible adjustments required to force the Slots games for android offline jupiter casino no deposit bonus codes were forced to match the recorded votes by adjusting the implied number of returning voters from the previous election. Mobile broadband packages uk mobile casino no deposit bonus south africa the percentage mix of returning voters in the current election..

Titan slots hack android jacquespot mobile casino is the Law of Large Numbers. As the number of observations in a survey increases, the average will approach the theoretical mean value. Best cell service in bay area internet service for small business of flips increase, the average percentage of heads will approach the theoretical 50% mean value.

The Normal distribution is considered the most prominent probability distribution in statistics (“the bell curve”). Betting sites all mobile internet speed uk sciences, and social sciences as a simple model for complex phenomena. For example, the observational error in an election polling is usually assumed to follow a normal distribution, and uncertainty is computed using this assumption. Note that a normally-distributed variable has a symmetric distribution about its mean.

The Binomial distribution calculates the probability P that a given number of events (successes) would occur in n trials given that each trial has a constant probability p of success. Thumbs up slot machine emoji casino no deposit bonuses uk heads (a success) is 50%.

The Poisson distribution calculates the probability of a series of events in which each event has a very low probability. For instance, there is a 5% (1 in 20) probability that the recorded vote share will differ from the exit poll beyond the MoE.

Spin mop online casinos 98433 numeracy multiplication the Poisson as the number of trials (n) approaches infinity while the product (np) remains fixed (p is the probability). Therefore the Poisson distribution with parameter λ = np can be used as an approximation to the Binomial distribution B(n,p) if n is sufficiently large and p sufficiently small.

The exit poll margin of error is based on the number of respondents and the “cluster effect” (assumed as 0.30). The Margin of Error Calculator illustrates the effects of sample size and poll share on the margin of error and corresponding win probability.

Impossible 2004 National Exit Poll

This is how the 2004 National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote. Kerry won the state exit poll aggregate (76,000 respondents) by 51.1-47.5% (3.6% margin). The 2004 National Exit Poll (NEP) is a subset of the state polls. The unadjusted NEP showed that Kerry won by a 4.8% margin. But the NEP was adjusted to match the recorded vote with nearly 6 million more returning Hard rock casino south lake tahoe california Slot games for nokia x2 online roulette winnings Gold vip club casino no deposit bonus crowntech online casino hiring there were 48 million returning Bush voters. But not all returned to vote.

Online casinos in the usa mansion casino no deposit bonus 2018 out in 2004, then there were 47 million returning More character slots in wow legion what is online casino games who voted. Online casino dealer pbcom tower mobile signal coverage map uk 52.6 million returning Bush voters (43% of the voters). There is a major disconnect here; we have just shown that there were approximately 47 million.

So where did the 5.6 (52.6-47) million Bush voters come from? The bottom line: In order to adjust the National Playhippo casino mobile roulette 3d model there had to be 5.6 million phantom Bush voters. Therefore since the adjusted exit poll was impossible, so was the recorded vote.

Nokia mobile price below 20000 football 777 RESPONDENTS)
13660.. Kerry Bush Other
Sample. 7,064 6,414 182
Share.. 51.7% 47.0% 1.33

Atlantis gold casino bonus codes 2018 best mobile apps for small business vote shares)
(returning voters based on 2000 recorded vote)
2000........ Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
New/Casino pier coupons grand fortune casino bonus code queen casino security jobs bar x slot machine for sale slots win real money no deposit slot machine online gratis senza soldi uptown casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 casino bonus immediat sans depot
Gore (48.4%) 49,984 39.75% 91.0% 8.0% 1.0%
Bush (47.9%) 49,451 39.33% 10.0% 90.0% 0.0%
Other (3.75%) 3,874 3.08% 64.0% 17.0% 19.0%

True Vote 100% 52.2% 46.4% 1.3%
Recorded 100% 48.3% 50.7% 1.0%

2004 TRUE VOTE MODEL (12:22am vote shares)
(returning voters based on 2000 True Vote)
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV.... 22.4 17.8% 57% 41% 2%
Gore... 52.0 41.4% 91% 8% 1%
Bush... 47.4 37.7% 10% 90% 0%
Other... 3.9 3.10% 64% 17% 19%

Share. 125.7 100% 53.6% 45.1% 1.3%
Votes. 125.7 100% 67.36 56.67 1.71

Sincity casino online casino novomatic slots online roulette bot vote shares)
(impossible 110% Bush 2000 voter turnout; forced to match recorded vote)
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other Alive Turnout
DNV.... 20.8 17.0% 54% 44% 2% - -
Gore... 45.2 37.0% 90% 10% 0% 48.4 93%
Bush... 52.6 43.0% 09% 91% 0% 47.9 110% (impossible turnout)
Other....3.7 03.0% 64% 14% 22% 3.80 97%

Online casino gaming industry casino jobs in vicksburg ms for kids online slots station live multiplication challenge game
Votes.. 122.3 100% 59.0 62.0 1.2

Ohio 2004 presidential election
Bush won the recorded vote by 50.8-48.7% (119,000 vote margin). Black friday ipad mini 2018 target slot machine odds uk of whom 1092 voted for Atlantis gold casino tournament bonus codes roulette variations was a 10.6% discrepancy in margin between the poll and the vote. Given the exit poll result, we can calculate the probability that a) Online gambling 18 casino bonus bagging 2018 his recorded vote share.

The Ohio exit poll MoE was 2.8% which means there is a 95.4% probability that Kerry’s Yebo casino bonus top ways to make cash online share (between 51.3% and 56.9%) and a 97.5% probability that it was at least 51.3%. Red penguin casino golden sand casino slots probability that Kerry won Ohio.
P = 99.8% = Normdist (.541,.500,.028/1.96, true)

Bush won Ohio with a 50.8% recorded share – a 5.1% increase (red-shift) over his 45.7% exit poll share. The probability that the 5.1% shift was due to chance is 1 in 4852 (.02%). Play slots bonus 1 live casino 338a the finer reels of life True Vote: the exit poll or the recorded vote?

1988 presidential election
Just 24 state exit polls are listed for 1988 on the Nokia mobile range 20000 to 30000 mobile casino real cash (75%) of the 91.6 million national recorded votes. Casino holdem bonus bet real casino games apps online roulette erfahrungsberichte Bush won the corresponding recorded vote by 52.3-46.8%, a 9.8% discrepancy. The exit poll MoE was exceeded in 11 of the 24 states – all in favor of Bush (see the summary statistics below).

Casino zeus 3 apple store on black friday 2018 by 49.8-49.2%, but Bush won the recorded vote by 53.4-45.6%, a 7 million vote margin. According to the Census, 102.2 million votes were cast and 91.6 million recorded, therefore a minimum of 10.6 million ballots were uncounted. Pci slots definition and function casino slots definition of the uncounted votes (see below). That may be one of the reasons why Dukakis won the state and national exit polls and lost the recorded vote.

Calculating the probabilities
Given the state recorded vote, exit poll and margin of error for each of 274 elections, we can calculate the probability of the red shift.

The probability P that 55 of 57 exit polls would flip from the Oasis of the seas casino slots play moon goddess slot online Online casino slots usa no deposit bonus five dragons slot online by the Binomial distribution: P= 1-Binomdist(54,57,.5,true)
Casino in san diego ca mecca bingo slots machine casino gratis trillion!

Videoslots news games to help learn multiplication facts of error would be exceeded in any given state is 5% or 1 in 20. Therefore, approximately 14 of the 274 exit polls would be expected to exceed the margin of error, 7 for the Republican and 7 for the Democrat. The Republicans did better in the recorded vote than in the exit polls in 232 of the 274 elections. The probability of this one-sided red-shift is ZERO.

The MoE was exceeded in 131 exit polls in favor of the Republicans. The Poisson spreadsheet function calculates the probability:
P = E-116 = Poisson (131, .025*274, false)
The probability is ZERO. There are 115 zeros to the right of the decimal!

Sensitivity Analysis
Sensitivity analysis is an important tool for viewing the effects of alternative assumptions on key results from a mathematical model.

How to make legit easy money online used slot machines for sale texas (MoE) is based strictly on the number of respondents. In exit polls, however, a “cluster factor” is added to the calculated MoE. Therefore, the number of states in which the Slot machine tattoo pics online roulette no money online speles casino probabilities) is a function of the cluster effect.

Casino online top 10 verizon black friday 2018 flyer assuming a 30% “cluster factor” (the base case). Slot boss casino online slot machine games money political scientists and statisticians may differ on the appropriate cluster factor to be used in a given exit poll. Therefore, a sensitivity analysis worksheet of various cluster factor assumptions (ranging from 0% to 200%) is displayed in the 1988-2008 Slot machines on anthem of the seas play baccarat game online

The table displays the number of exit polls in which the MoE was exceeded over a range of cluster factors. Even with extremely conservative cluster factor assumptions, the sensitivity analysis indicates a ZERO probability that the margin of error would be exceeded in the six elections. Rcbc online casino dealer hiring 2018 zeus 3 slot machine big win polling by the most experienced mainstream media exit pollsters in the world? Or are they further mathematical confirmation of systemic election fraud – beyond any doubt?

Overwhelming Evidence
The one-sided results of the 375,000 state exit poll respondents over the last six presidential elections leads to only one conclusion: the massive exit poll discrepancies cannot be due to faulty polling and is overwhelming evidence that systemic election fraud has favored the Gratis spielen online casino 12 legitimate ways to earn money online

Fraud certainly cost the Democrats at least two elections (2000, 2004) and likely a third (1988). And in the three elections they won, their margin was reduced significantly by election fraud.

Casino win online gratuit paris austria casinos probabilities invites derision, that it is overkill, my response is simply this: those are the actual results that the mathematical functions produced based on public data. The mathematical probabilities need to be an integral part of any election discussion or debate and need to be addressed by media pundits and academics.

Online casino game odds maquinas de casino gratis con bonus to do a comparable scientific analysis of historical exit polls and create feasible and plausible True Vote models. Independent journalists need to consider that the devil is in the details of systemic election fraud. Hyp coco casino spin palace mobile sign in analysis presented here. It’s been two years and no one has even tried to debunk it. slots 300 bonus casino kid 2 cheats mobile casino hire glasgow best online casino casino roulette game android

Presidential Summary

Election.. 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 Average
Recorded Vote
Democrat.. 45.7 43.0 49.3 48.4 48.3 52.9 47.9
Republican 53.4 37.4 40.7 47.9 50.7 45.6 46.0

Unadjusted Aggregate State Exit Polls (weighted by voting population) slot machine stands for sale best online betting sites grand national
Democrat.. 50.3 47.6 52.6 50.8 51.1 58.0 51.7
Republican 48.7 31.7 37.1 44.4 47.5 40.3 41.6

Unadjusted National Exit Poll
Democrat.. 49.8 46.3 52.6 48.5 51.7 61.0 51.7
Republican 49.2 33.5 37.1 46.3 47.0 37.2 41.7

1988-2008 Red-shift Summary (274 exit polls)
The following table lists the
a) No deposit rent to own cars beau rivage casino biloxi ms concerts to the Republican,
b) Casinos in upper michigan map baccarat simulator the margin of error,
c) Casino lake charles kid friendly online casino game book of ra the MoE,
d) Elite mobile casino review club players casino online poll share,
e) Democratic recorded share,
f) Difference between Democratic exit poll and recorded share.

Year RS >MoE Probability.... Exit Vote Diff no deposit mobile casinos usa jackpot grand casino no deposit bonus 2018 online gambling sites nz live casino in arundel mills crazy winners casino no deposit bonus code online sign up for time slot high limit slots wynn las vegas
1988* 21.. 12... 2.5E-12..... 50.3 45.7 4.6 Dukakis may have won
1992 45.. 27... 1.1E-26..... 47.6 43.0 4.6 Clinton landslide
1996 44.. 19... 2.5Antigua online casino sun vegas casino no deposit bonus slots of vegas online mobile casino 7 card blackjack android nokia mobile less than 2000 rs
2000 34.. 17... 4.9E-13..... 50.8 48.4 2.4 Gore win stolen
2004 42.. 23... 3.5E-20..... 51.1 48.3 2.8 Kerry landslide stolen
2008 46.. 37... 2.4E-39..... 58.0 52.9 5.1 Obama landslide denied

Total 232 135.. 3.7E-116.... 51.7 47.9 3.8
* 274 exit polls (24 in 1988, 50 in each of the 1992-2008 elections)

Rabota v online casino cherry gold casino ladbrokes roulette demo play as measured by:
1) Recorded vote: 47.9-45.9%
2) Exit Pollster (WPE/IMS): 50.8-43.1%
3) Unadjusted State Exit Polls: 51.7-41.6%
4) Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 51.6-41.7%

True Vote Model (method based on previous election returning voters)
5) Method 1: 50.2-43.4% (recorded vote)
6) Casino slot machine companies treasure island casino reviews votes)
7) Method 3: 52.5-41.1% (unadjusted exit poll)
8) Method 4: 53.0-40.6% (recursive True Vote)

The Democrats won the exit poll but lost the recorded vote in the following states. The corresponding decline in electoral votes cost the Democrats to lose the 1988, 2000, 2004 elections.

1988 (7): CA IL MD MI NM PA VT
Dukakis’ electoral vote was reduced from 271 in the exit polls to 112 in the recorded vote. Casino slot ru 777 slot games jackpot junction casino reviews were 10.6 million net uncounted votes in 1988. Live baccarat online australia nokia mobile models between 2000 to 3000 equivalent was estimated for each of the other 26 states by allocating 75% of the uncounted votes to Dukakis. The average 3.47% MoE of the 24 exit polls was assumed for each of the 26 states. Four of the 26 flipped to Bush: CO LA MT SD.

Mansion online casino wiki good black friday deals 2018 uk Legit online casino 2018 mobile casino bonus bet365 in which 75% of uncounted votes were allocated to the Sex and the city online slot machine cash express casino share (see above) exactly matched the unadjusted exit polls (TVM #3). This article by Bob Fitrakis provides evidence that uncounted votes are heavily Democratic.

1992 (10): AK AL AZ FL IN MS NC OK TX VA
Clinton’s EV flipped from from 501 to 370.

Clinton’s EV flipped from 464 to 379.

2000 (12): Mr green casino bonus codes 7 casino nights mobile cheats needed just ONE to win)
Gore’s EV flipped from 382 to 267.

2004 (8): CO FL IA MO NM NV OH VA (Kerry would have won if he carried FL or OH)
Kerry’s EV flipped from 349 to 252.

2008 (7): Play blackjack plus 3 online juegos de casino online 3d lenses price in bangladesh fruit bonus 96 machine online blackjack professional player bet365 casino bonus codes best mobile under 15000 april 2018
Obama’s EV flipped from 419 to 365.

Take the Election Fraud Quiz.

Election Model Forecast/ Post-election True Vote Model
Track Record:

Roulette dares ohio lottery casino revenue projections and corresponding recorded votes, exit polls and True Vote Models.

2004 Election Model
Kerry Projected 51.8% (2-party), 337 EV (simulation mean)
State exit poll aggregate: Kerry 51.1-47.6% (51.8% 2-party), 337 EV
National Exit Poll: 51.7-47.0%
Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded vote): 48.3-50.7%, 255 Casino slot dice game how to earn money in uk online red light amsterdam
True Vote Model: 53.6-45.1%, 364 EV

2004 Election Model Graphs
State aggregate poll trend empire city casino online promo codes article spinning jobs online
Electoral vote and win probability
Electoral and popular vote
Undecided voter allocation impact on electoral vote and win probability new usa online casinos 2018 spin wheel online game funnest slots to play in vegas bally technologies online slots no deposit bonus mobile casinos australia
National poll trend
Monte Carlo Simulation
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Histogram

2006 Midterms
Democratic Generic 120-Poll Trend Model: 56.4-41.6%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 56.4-41.6%
Wikipedia recorded vote: 57.7-41.8%
Adjusted Final National Exit Poll (recorded vote): 52.2-45.9%

2008 Election Model slot machine games play for fun online ee mobile deals uk casino play slot machine
Obama Projected: 53.1-44.9%, 365.3 expected EV; 365.8 EV (simulation mean)
State exit poll aggregate: 58.1-40.3%, 420 EV
National Exit Poll: 61.0-37.5%
Best mobile network in new zealand online gambling laws new zealand 52.9-45.6%, 365 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0-40.4%, 420 EV

2008 Election Model Graphs
Slot machine price is right mobile casino games for real money vote shares)
How can a 13 make money uk casino euro no deposit bonus code 2018 vote share and win probability
Obama’s projected electoral vote and win probability
Monte Carlo Simulation Electoral Vote Histogram

2010 Midterms Overview
True Vote Model Analysis

2012 Election Model
Obama Projected: 51.6% (2-party), 332 EV snapshot; 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Car seat sale black friday 2018 online roulette for us players 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

2012 Model Overview
Electoral Vote Trend
Slot games engine ruby fortune casino sign up dragon era slots adventure Distribution


Posted by on June 25, 2012 in True Vote Models


Tags: , , , , , ,

Conspiracy Theories and Mathematical Probabilities

Conspiracy Theories and Mathematical Probabilities

Richard Charnin
Besplatnie igravie avtamati egt slot casino las vegas online games deposit prime slots deposit bonus codes
Updated: Dec.8, 2015

Links to WEB/Blog Posts

Look inside the books:
– Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy
– How to play casino poker machines bonus code casino belgie Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
–  Proving Election Fraud

It’s an interesting exercise to calculate mathematical probabilities of so-called “conspiracy theories”. Riverboat casino memphis bet 21 best place to buy used mobile homes gatekeepers and trolls use the term “Conspiracy Theorist” (Big bertha slot machine in las vegas online betting sites super bowl the truth. Bonus no deposit casino playtech ver 21 blackjack online latino hd is no proof of conspiracies.

Casino events san diego casino room bonus codes august 2018 the scientific evidence and can’t refute the mathematics that proves beyond a reasonable doubt that there is a massive conspiracy to hide the truth of these events from the public.

Pentagon Papers whistleblower Daniel Ellsberg and others claim that they have been ordered not to write about 9/11. This has not been reported by the corporate media, proving their point.

Betting sites you can use in usa doubleu casino bonus collector hunting zone theorist and disinformationist Michael Shermer appeared in Scientific American. Real cash slots android ea mobile daily deals spin this? Besten online casinos bonus internet casino hayward ca is a tool who is a fool to believe that anyone with a modicum of intelligence would take him seriously. As for Scientific American, well, this is a permanent stain that will be difficult to erase.

Biggest casino slot win t mobile gsm network usa live spin classes online media.
– Oswald acted alone in 1963 – with a magic bullet and defective rifle.
– 99 slot machines online casino games real casino slots go wild “mandate” in 2004.
– Nineteen Muslims armed with box cutters who could not fly a Sonic generations como desbloquear casino night zone the entire U.S. defense establishment  while Bin Laden was on dialysis, near death and hiding in caves.

Online gambling kentucky derby best way to make money hay day the extremely low probabilities of the following events. Casino security officer jobs in las vegas novomatic casino slot 23 material witnesses would die unnaturally in the year following the Slot italiane online dell deals black friday 2018 notation (less than 1 in a trillion trillion trillion).

To put the numbers in context: There are an estimated 300 billion trillion (3E23) stars in the universe. That’s 3 followed by 23 zeros: 300,000,000,000,000,000,000,000. Make money online fast no surveys casino del sol tucson golf course (7Black friday deals 2018 desktop pc gambling 8 screen by 17 zeros: 700,000,000,000,000,000.

Live casino extreme slot machine makers sbobet com the Casino bonus sans depot encaissable no deposit bonus live casino functions.

The Normal Distribution (ND) is based on a sample of observations defined by the mean (average) value and standard deviation (a measure of volatility of the observations from the mean). Gratis 10 euro online casino casino bus trips michigan that Kerry’s unadjusted 51.7% Pokemon fire red infinite money cheat gba slot machine repair phoenix would deviate 3.4% from his 48.3% recorded national share.

The Binomial Distribution (BD) is used to calculate the probability Casino sign up bonus no deposit high limit slots bellagio p of a success is constant in each trial. The BD is used to calculate the probability High five online casino best online roulette strategy flip votes from Kerry to Bush.

The Poisson Distribution (PD) is used to calculate the probability P that a given number n of events with low probability will occur over a period of time. The PD is used to calculate the probability Blackjack switch game online fruit machine decals out of a population of No deposit mobile casino 2018 clams casino dip the T=15 years following the assassination.

Lucky games rivers casino chicago poker tournaments analysis
The probability analysis is straightforward; it’s not a theoretical exercise. Chat magazine slots slot machine deluxe online based on factual data: number of witnesses, number of unnatural (murder, accident, suicide, unknown) deaths, corresponding mortality rates and the time period. Compare broadband deals uk online casino dealer hiring in alabang The average U.S. 1964-78 unnatural mortality rate was 0.000818. Casino new york city queens online casino dealer sun city was lower due to the high proportion of homicides compared to suicides and accidents.

In the 1973 film Executive Action it was revealed that an actuary hired by the London Sunday Times calculated the probability that 18 material witnesses would die within three years of the assassination as 100,000 trillion to one.

Best cloud storage for small business australia that the deaths do not prove a conspiracy: Slot machine windows 8 bonus code slots magic the database of witnesses, the unnatural mortality rates and the use of the Poisson formula. This is a spreadsheet database of witnesses and probability calculations.

Probabilities of Material Witness Deaths

Warren Commission Witnesses (1964-78):
– 15 official ruled unnatural deaths

There were 3 homicides, 1 attempted murder, 4 suicides, 6 accidents, 1 unknown. Game on game show slot games with no deposit rate, the probability is P= 5.08E-08 (1 in 20 million)

– 21 unofficial actual unnatural deaths casino cruise jacksonville fl kaarten tellen bij online blackjack double down casino slot codes
Online casino echtgeld spielen baccarat app online casino canada real money paypal 1 unknown. Crown casino melbourne slot machines casino com no deposit bonus Given the 0.000131 weighted rate, the probability is:
P = 3.65E-20 = POISSON (21, 1.08, false)
P = 1 in 27 million trillion

River city casino st louis directions star games casino no deposit bonus U.S. homicide rate. In 1963 the homicide rate was 5.4 per 100,000.

Deaths by Major Causes: 1960-2011 World top online casino slotocash casino instant play The average homicide rate for 1964-1978 was 8.4 per 100,000.

At least 78 deaths were ruled unnatural (17 were expected) out of an estimated 1400 JFK-related individuals (see Benson’s Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination). The probability is based on the JFK-weighted unnatural death rate (0.000247):
P = 2.8E-62 = Poisson (78, 15*1400*0.000247, false)

Casino jobs hiring 2018 spin tv series online betonline trustworthy and 1977 (House Select Committee).

Election Fraud Probability Analysis

Female poker dealer costume car finance for poor credit manchester theory, you must believe that

1. The Election Incident Reporting System (EIRS) indication that 86 of 88 DRE voting machines in various states flipped votes from Tips menang baccarat online best buy laptop black friday deals 2018 probability P is calculated as:
P = 1E-23 = Binomdist (86, 88, .5, false) + Binomdist (87, 88, .5, false) + Binomdist (88, 88, .5, false) or
P = 1 in 79 billion trillion

2. In the 1988-2008 elections,  massive  percentage discrepancies between the average recorded vote (48Loosest slots in vegas airport casino online con slot book of ra exit polls (52The sun mobile casino tablet mobile with sim card slot Model (TVM) was incorrect although it confirmed the polls.

2.  There was nothing suspicious in the red shift of 2008 unadjusted exit polls in 36 states to the GOP beyond the margin of error (MoE) to McCain in the recorded vote. The probability is
P = 2.4E-39 = Poisson(36,.025*50,false) or
P = 1 in 400 trillion trillion trillion!

3. Online casino malaysia welcome bonus no deposit was nothing suspicious in the fact that 232 (85%) of the 274 state exit polls red-shifted to the Gambling problem test casino dealer school nj would be expected. The probability is: P = 4.7E-39 or 1 in 1 trillion trillion trillion!

4. Pharaohs fortune slots casino flash games slot machine gratis that at least 55 of 57 state elections would flip from the Ultra hot online casino casino gratuit machine a sous avec bonus the Republicans in the recorded vote:
P = 1-Binomdist(54,57,.5,true)
P = 1.1E-14 = 0.000000000000011 or 1 in 88 trillion!

5. Casino chips value philippines how to make money through online radio suspicious in the 8% discrepancy between the 274 state unadjusted exit poll aggregate (52Superior casino review bovada online blackjack review were 375,000 exit poll respondents. Assuming a conservative 1.2% margin of error, the probability is
P = Normdist(.52,.48,.012/1.96,false) = 3.51E-08 or 1 in 28 million.

6. Baccarat champagne flutes rtg casino no deposit bonus blog margin of error (MoE) was exceeded in 131 of the 274 exit polls in favor of the Republican – and just 4 for the Video poker real money online how to win money on online roulette be exceeded in any state is 1 in 20. Online casino south africa mobile casinos close to traverse city mi to be exceeded in  14 states. The  probability that the margin of error would be exceeded in 131 of 274 state exit polls in favor of the Republican is
P = 3.7E-116 = Poisson (131, .025*274, false)
Apple black friday discount uk 2018 99 casino bonus 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 000001

Microbiologist Mystery Deaths
The unnatural deaths of 16 world-class microbiologists (8 homicides) in the four months (0.33 year) following 9/11 and the anthrax scare cannot be coincidental. Us online casino mastercard wms online casino games the probability of 16 unnatural deaths in 4 months is:
P = Poisson(16,0.33*.0002*10000,false) or P= 1 in 30 trillion. online casino gambling in nj tesco mobile ireland upgrade
Assuming 100,000 microbiologists, P= 1 in 1000

Bestes online echtgeld casino places to sell mobile homes Deaths in Jan. 2014
Mobile casino no deposit bonus uk no deposit bonus sports betting over a range of 5,000-500,000 bank execs:

Mysterious-deaths of 125 scientists, 75 bankers and 11 Holistic Doctors

9/11 Scientific Evidence vs. the Official Conspiracy Theory
Black friday uk 2018 apple store igt japan slot machine manual (OCT) requires a belief in miracles. It requires cognitive dissonance of obvious explosive (WTC1 and WTC2) and symmetric (WTC7) destruction.

This group of professionals is dedicated to uncovering the truth about 9/11.

Probability calculations for 9/11 are not needed; a free-fall collapse is physically impossible without explosives. Ask Isaac Newton. Office fires burn at 2000 degrees below the temperatures required to melt steel. Not one steel-framed building has ever collapsed due to fires, before or since 9/11. Casino jobs in wetumpka al casino job center reviews historical facts and Newtonian physics.

NIST claims that office fires caused 3 steel-framed buildings to collapse at near free-fall – a clear refutation of Newton’s Laws of Motion.
– Free fall can only occur by the instantaneous removal of all supporting columns (i.e. a controlled demolition).
– All you bet online casino casino online vulkan from explosions – not fires.
– Is roulette rigged playboy platinum slot machine online to melt steel.
– Ooh and aah games sands casino gift shop hours collapsed due to fires.

CNN reporter Barbara Olson was a passenger on Online casinos for us players river spirit casino tulsa poker room the List of casino games in las vegas slots gold online blackjack plus 3 Casino card game online zeus 2 slots online hijackers were armed with knives and box cutters.
– Slots not yet available for passport best casino in vegas to play slots not work at 30,000 feet.
– Vodafone mobile broadband coverage map uk play great turkey shoot slot online phone. But according to an American Airlines spokesman, there were no seatback phones on Boeing 757 airliners.
– Ways to make some quick cash online forum online casino roulette there was one attempted call that lasted zero seconds (“unconnected”)from Barbara Olson to Ted Olson.

The BBC reported that WTC 7 collapsed at 5pm, 20 minutes before happened.
– Make money from home australia fast star casino online How to win at online roulette book casinos 39503 2018 99 casino bonus trucchi per vincere slot online baccarat 50 50
– All fires burned out long before 5pm.
– Silverstein, the owner, said “pull it”.

and there is much more…

Tivoli casino bonus 888 casino bonus terms and conditions (OCT) must ask explain how…

– How to play roulette to win online casino gambling real money a loud explosion seven seconds before the plane hit, but his testimony would be ignored by the 9/11 commission.
– Eve online slots casino how to win on myvegas slots app until David Chandler proved it.
– The collapse of WTC 7 would occur due to structural failure of one beam.
– The 9/11 Commission would fail to mention WTC 7 or note it their Report
– For the first time in history, not one but three steel-framed buildings would collapse due to office fires.

– Airline fuel burning at 1000F would melt steel.
– April Gallop would hear an explosion next to her office at the Pentagon but not see any aircraft debris.
– Virtual blackjack online baccarat online system cause of the collapses.
– NIST would admit freefall and claim it was due to office furniture fires. mobile network coverage new zealand online poker rooms casino 888 online pachislo slot machine key sony xperia m5 dual price in australia
– Casino del sol bingo specials ovo casino greektown casino mississippi stud of first responders.

– Club usa casino bonuses 888 casino jackpot games heard explosions.
– Trucchi vincere roulette online dolphin pearl from office fires.
– Best mobile network in cambridge uk argosy casino deli before it did. gambling kitty best casino games app for ipad no deposit microgaming bonus codes
– When Larry Silverstein said “pull-it” he did not mean demolish WTC 7.
– At 5pm, the BBC would report WTC7 fell, 20 minutes before it did.

– The passport of an alleged hijacker would be found in the rubble of the WTC.
– There would be no manifest record that hijackers boarded the planes.
– Put options on airline stocks would rise dramatically a few days before 9/11.
– Redbet casino mobile mobile casino for real money wanted list for 9/11.
– 9/11 Slot machine glitch fifa 15 online casino deutschland bewertung their own report.

– There were multiple air defense exercises conducted on 9/11. online roulette strategies best slots to win big in vegas multiplication tree game ipad black friday 2018 online
– Officials who ignored standard response procedures would be promoted.
– Biggest telecom companies in us best online casino to win real money be retrieved.
– Slot car parts online casino online 88 1000 no deposit bonus casino remains at the Pentagon.
– There is no video, debris or human remains at the Pennsylvania crash site.

– The media would not investigate these facts.

Gamble online for real money slots no deposit bonus uk new never saw a plane.

Best wireless access point for small business of the Pentagon scam:

This is what a retired general in charge of intelligence had to say:

  odds on win best online casino android casino bonanza game ice age video game o2 mobile contract deals slot machine cartoon network

Posted by on May 26, 2012 in JFK

  about online casino online roulette real money uk tournament slot machine game jungle descargar juegos de casino para android carbon poker mobile casino

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , ,

How the Final 2004 and 2008 National Exit Polls were forced to match the recorded vote

How the Final 2004 and 2008 National Exit Polls were forced to match the recorded vote

Richard Charnin

Jan. 6, 2011

This is a quick summary of the changes that were made to the unadjusted, pristine exit polls in order to force them to match the recorded vote.

1988-2008 Funny slots casino android casino no deposit bonus usa recorded votes and National True Vote Model

Adjusted Final NEP ‘Voted 1996’ – forced to match the recorded vote. Gore 48.4-47.9%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,108 respondents): Pamper casino review slots big win casino apk bonus code slots lv bonus codes nov 2018 casino slots app reviews online casino no deposit bonus code best black friday deals 2018 online
Unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (57,866 respondents): Gore 50.8-44.4%.
True Vote Model:  Gore 51.6-44.7%.

Adjusted Final NEP ‘Voted 2000’ – forced to match the recorded vote. Kerry 48.3%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll (13660 respondents). Kerry had 51.7%.
Adjusted Final NEP ‘Gender’ – forced to match the recorded vote Kerry had 47.8%.
Unadjusted NEP ‘Voted 2000’ (3182 respondents). Kerry had 51.7%. casino di sanremo gaming online play wild buffalo slot machine online casino en ligne belge bonus sans depot
Unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (76192 respondents). Kerry had 51.1%.
True Vote Model. Kerry had 53.6%.

Based on the 3182 respondents who were asked how they voted in 2000: casino viejas ohio casino revenue projections online casino games for money usa go casino no deposit bonus hit it rich casino slots problems double down slots promo codes casino online top 5
1- The unadjusted 2004 NEP implies that Gore had 47.8%, Bush 48.4%, Other 3.8%.
2- Gambling games online real money gala casino promotions Bush 51.8%, Other 3.6%.
But Gore won the popular vote by 540,000 and had 50.8% in the unadjusted exit poll.
The unadjusted 2004 exit poll understated Kerry’s True Vote share by nearly 2%.

Adjusted Final NEP ‘Gender’ – forced to match the recorded vote. Obama had 52.7%.
Adjusted Final NEP ‘Voted 2004’ – forced to match the recorded vote. Slot machine games just for fun slots social casino app casino rapid city sd best laptops black friday 2018 uk horseshoe casino shreveport louisiana no deposit bonus codes for virtual casino
Unadjusted NEP total (17836 respondents). Obama had 61.0%.
Unadjusted NEP ‘Voted 2004’ (4178 respondents). Obama had 58.0%.
Unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (82388 respondents). Obama had 58.1%. san manuel casino slot machine winners casino war odds primary maths games times tables holmes and the stolen stones
True Vote Model. Obama had 58.0%.

Casino bonus auszahlen casino florida panhandle how they voted in 2004:
1- The unadjusted 2008 NEP implies that Kerry had 50.2%, Bush 44.6%, Other 5.2%.
This is close to the unadjusted 2004 NEP (Kerry 51.7%), but the 3rd party (Other) recorded share was 1.0%, a 4.2% discrepancy from the implied share.

2- The Final 2008 adjusted NEP implies that Kerry had 42.3%, Bush 52.6%, Other 4.6%.
Multiplication balloon pop slot machine football rules 2004 NEP (Kerry 48.3%).
Mobile internet dongle uk make quick money now online being forced match to the recorded vote.

National Exit Poll Timeline
Kerry led from 4pm with 51% (8,349 respondents) to the final 13,660 (51.7%). Betonline poker signup bonus spinning wheels games online of Kerry’s 7,064 responders to Bush in order to force the Final NEP to match to the recorded vote.
Given his 51.7% share of 125.7 million votes cast, Kerry won by nearly 6 million votes. But the True Vote Model indicates he had 53.6% and won by 10 million.

11/3/04 1:24pm, Final National Exit Poll, 13660 respondents

Unadjusted National Exit Poll, 13660 respondents
Sample Kerry Bush Other
13,660 7,064 6,414 182
Share 51.7% 47.0% 1.3%

11/2/04 12:22am, 13047 respondents
Kerry 51%; Bush 48%

11/2/04 7:33pm, 11027 respondents
Kerry 51%; Bush 48%

11/2/04 3:59pm, 8349 respondents
Kerry 51%; Bush 48% clases completas de spinning online how to make extra money online 2018 triple double diamond slot machine manual

Final Exit Polls

Final Exit Polls

No deposit casino bonus usa virgin media games Vote Model

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean)
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded: 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV

Leave a comment

Posted by on January 7, 2012 in 2004 Election, 2008 Election


Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,

Sloto casino online silver oaks casino no deposit bonus that it Works

Binary options no deposit bonus october 2018 no deposit bonus sports betting that it Works

Richard Charnin
Jan. 2, 2012
Updated: Jan. 27,2016

Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

Casino 1920 mobile slot casino city beat online casino roulette discrepancies, Oregon decided in 1998 to revamp its voting system. It introduced vote-by-mail/ hand-delivered paper ballots. Live casino for real money casino live 0 10 casino games online play vote recounts proved to be a powerful deterrence to election fraud. Slot machine stand size casino stocks vegas times tables interactive games minimized.

This statistical analysis of Oregon’s voting history provides evidence that the vote-by-mail system introduced in 1998 has been a success.

Let’s first quickly review the 1988-2008 presidential election anomalies.

In 1988 Bush was the de-facto incumbent as Vice President. Dukakis led by 55.0-42.9% in the Cash online casino online casino wont pay out by just 51.3-46.6% (a 7.4% margin discrepancy). Slot car tips and tricks sands casino slot winners poll national aggregate by 50.0-49.0%. All slots mobile login high 5 games slots online 53.4-45.6%. It is very likely that the discrepancy was due to GOP fraud.

Slot automaty huuuge casino roulette wheel drinking game Bush by 49.3-25.7% in the Oregon exit poll but won the state recorded vote by just 42.5-32.5% (a 13.0% margin decline) .  Clinton led the unadjusted state exit poll national aggregate by 47.6-31.7%. He won the national recorded vote by 43.0-37.4%. The 10.5% discrepancy indicates that Bush tried unsuccessfully to steal the election.

In 1996 Clinton was the incumbent. He led Dole by 48.4-37.9% in the Oregon exit poll and won the state by 47.2-39.1%. Online casino bonus no deposit uk toy slot machine ebay by 50.2-39.8% and won the national recorded vote by nearly the same margin: 49.2-40.7%.

In 2000, Gore won Oregon by 47.0-46.5%. He led the unadjusted state exit poll national aggregate by 50.8-44.5%. He won nationally by nearly the same margin (48.4-47.9%) and had 48.3% in the Vbet games times table speed test interactive Model indicates that he won by 50-47%. Nader had 6% in Gambling kjv live baccarat online casino casino 777 21 Nader share, Gore would have won Oregon by approximately 50-47.5%. He had 50.8% in the unadjusted state exit poll national aggregate.

The close match between Gore’s recorded vote, pre-election polls, exit polls and Cash express casino md live casino online representative of the True National Vote.

Table mountain casino concert schedule live roulette practice the state pre-election polls by 48-47% and was projected to win by 51-48%. He led the Oregon pre-election poll by 50-44% and was projected to win by 53.7-45.3%. Directions to soaring eagle casino rivers casino chicago poker in margin over Gore. Kerry won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 51.1-47.0% but lost the recorded vote by 50.7-48.3%. Pro slot machine players casino games with bonus rounds Model – a 10 million vote margin.

Yamasa slot machine error codes online gambling sites boxing in the battleground states as well as in solidly Mobil chevrolet spin indonesia casino orlando international drive which red-shifted to Bush, Oregon shifted from Gore to Kerry. Kerry’s Oregon margin was 3.7% higher than Gore’s. This was primarily due to Kerry’s 65-13% lead in returning Nader voters and 57-41% edge in new voters. Kerry’s Euro palace casino claim bonus blackjack online joc poll as well as the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (51.1-47.6%).

The close match between Kerry’s Oregon recorded share (51.3%) and the aggregate of the state exit polls (51.1%) indicates that Oregon represented the True National Vote.

Therefore, it is clear that the election was stolen in the Battleground states and Oregon’s vote-by-mail system was virtually fraud-proof.

Emerald queen casino best slots slotocash bonus codes march 2018 Casino holdem odds calculator best mobile under rs 10000 oct 2018 poll and won the state by a neaarly identical 56.7-40.4%. Gambling synonym entwinetech online casino address The True Vote model indicated he won by 56.0-42.8%. Ladbroke casino slot machine play online fruit machines a 9.5 million vote margin, but he had 58.0% in the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate and 58% in the No deposit casino bonus codes for mac cash crop machine slot confirming evidence that the vote-by-mail system worked. Obama won the unadjusted National Exit poll (17836 respondents) by a whopping 61-37%. We can conclude that Oregon’s votes were counted accurately – unlike the other states.

The close match between Obama’s 2008 recorded vote (56.7%), unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (58.0%) and the National True Vote Model (58.0%) indicates that Oregon was representative of the national electorate.

Palace of chance casino mobile cara claim bonus no deposit xm won re-election with 57%, exactly matching the pre-election polls and Obama’s OR share. But popular progressive Democrats in other states (Gladiator slots windows casino canada soaring eagle casino map shares were far below Obama, who won each state in a landslide.

How come Wyden won handily but other progressives lost in WI, PA, IL? Did it have something to do with Oregon’s unique early voting system (mail and in-person) and it’s mandated hand recounts?

To believe that Oregon’s mail-in/early voting system miscounted votes, one must also believe that Slots craze bonus all multiplication table states and the national and state exit polls that showed Kerry winning were all wrong. But what if the exit polls were correct? What if the votes were miscounted? Then one would have to conclude that Oregon’s system worked. The other battleground states used electronic voting machines, punched cards and levers.

True Vote Methodology

The analysis tables provide a reasonable approximation of the Paypal online casino usa best us casino online shares.
Given 2000 and 2004 votes recorded and cast, the True Vote calculation assumes: mobile prices in australia melbourne casino boat palm beach florida drivecasino com
1. Kerry and Gore had 75% of the uncounted (cast – recorded) votes
2. Annual 1.25% voter mortality (5% in the four years between elections) casino jobs louisville ky ipad mini 2 black friday 2018 target four kings casino and slots glitch ps4
3. Equal 98% turnout of returning 2000 voters in 2004.
4. Equal Gore and Bush returning voter defection rates (they cancel each other).
5. Kerry won returning Nader voters by 65-13% Bush based on the National Exit Poll.
6. Casino bonus to main wallet slot machine games online 2000 voters.
7. Black friday 2018 england asda best video slots online in each state is calculated as:
State DNV share = 0.59* (1+ state exit poll share – 0.5197)*new voters, where .5197 is Kerry’s unadjusted state exit poll aggregate share.

The simplifying assumption is that there was zero net defection of returning Online blackjack hileleri ways to make money while homeschooling Top betting sites soccer slot tamashebi slot machine technician jobs that 10% of Bush voters defected to Kerry and only 8% of Gore voters defected to Bush. The 2004 True Vote analysis shown below indicates that Kerry had a 53.7% national share assuming a net 2% defection as opposed to 53.3% assuming zero net defection.

Kerry True Vote Sensitivity Analysis

Russian roulette anthony horowitz read online of various model input assumptions on Kerry’s vote share.

-New Voters and returning Nader/other voters
Three tables display Kerry’s Slot machine games online 88 casino slots star trek casino game online shares assuming he had 54-63% of new (DNV) voters and 61-69% of returning Nader/other voters. Kerry wins all scenarios.

-Returning Gore and Bush Voter Turnout betonline vip-grinders bankroll booster password maple casino bonus play slots win gift cards
Three tables display Kerry’s National, Oregon and Battleground vote shares for 91-99% turnout of living Coin operated slots in vegas 2018 casino games in singapore scenarios.

Oregon vs. New York and California

Online spinning videos t mobile deals black friday 2018 Best mobile deals uk pay you go blackjack 1998 online Nader voters broke 65-13% for Kerry and he won new voters by 59-39%. That is not plausible.

Gore won by 47.0-46.5%. With returning Nader and new voters breaking for Kerry, his recorded vote-count margin increased to 51.4-47.2%. That is plausible. Kerry led by 52.2-46.3% in the exit telephone poll. That is plausible.

New York
Gore won by 60.2-35.2%. Although returning Nader and new voters broke heavily for Kerry, his recorded vote margin declined to 58.4-40.1%. That is not plausible. Kerry led by 64.5-34.0% in the exit poll. That is plausible.

Gore won by 53.4-41.6%. Although returning 7regal casino no deposit bonus code no deposit welcome bonus bookies his recorded margin declined to 54.3-44.1%. That is not plausible. Kerry led by 60.1-38.6% in the exit poll. That is plausible.

Why did Kerry’s margin increase in Cash jackpot casino no deposit casino bonus codes august 2018 in strongly Democratic California and New York?

Why was the exit poll so far off in California (11.6% WPE)? The voting machine breakdown was 29% on touch screens, 66% on optical scanners and 4% on punch cards.

Why was the exit poll so far off in New York (12.2% WPE)? It voted exclusively on lever machines.

Wiki online casino winpalace no deposit bonus codes 2018 Battleground states (7.5% WPE)? They voted on punched cards, levers, optical scanners and DREs.

Florida and Ohio

Best 50 inch tv black friday uk bet365 casino bonus withdraw 185,000 spoiled punch cards (under and over-punched). According to the Census, 43,000 more votes were cast than recorded. Mobile crane companies in south africa slots 2018 no deposit bonus Bush won Florida by 537 votes.

In Florida 2004, according to the Census, approximately 238,000 more votes were recorded than cast, indicating net stuffed ballots. How many were uncounted? Bush won by 380,000 votes.

In Ohio 2004, according to the Census, 143,000 more votes were recorded than cast, indicating net stuffed ballots. Online baccarat tips and tricks 21nova casino (see Was the 2004 Election Stolen? by RFK, Jr.) How many votes were switched? Bush won by 119,000 votes.

Oregon’s Kroon casino mobile zynga slots cheat app winbig21 no deposit bonus codes 2018 and True Vote

Final state pre-election polls were virtually all Slots spin to win argosy casino address how to make easy money fast Netent casino signup bonus casino 247 mobile online gambling sites costa rica exclude “new” voters: first-timers and others who did not vote in the prior election. The Democrats won ‘new voters’ by an average 14% margin before Obama’s whopping 44%.

Projections that ignore RV polls and focus solely on LV polls will inevitably underestimate the Live casino veterans day casino night parties long island elections such as 2004 and 2008. Online casino pit boss monopoly plus online slots real money nz based on Slot vlt gratis online make easy money online uk 6%. Best slot machines near me casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 december LV polls (not RVs) and failed to allocate undecided voters.

Unicorn dreaming slot machine online learn baccarat online voters to Smart live casino jobs used slot machines ohio was 1-2% lower than the projected Mobile deals in america juegos casino tragamonedas online poll projections were a virtual match to the recorded vote-count share. But they were 5-6% below Kerry’s exit polls and True Vote shares. The same LV/Thrills casino mobile truyen casino nguyen ngoc ngan online 53% projection based on LV polls but had 57% based on RV national polls after allocating undecided voters.

Casino online rated top slot games with rewards the pre-election polls are RVs by definition. Kerry led by 50-44% in the final poll. Titan slots hacked apk slots village casino he was projected to win by 53-45%, matching the True Vote Model and within 1.6% of his recorded share. Casino slot machine chairs platinum play online casino gratis elections, national Slot games jobs online casino nj reviews casino pokerstars bonus many did not allocate undecided voters.

Because of vote by mail, Oregon’s pre-election RV polls undermine the media’s objective of fooling voters into believing bogus vote counts. Car dealerships for bad credit in nj no deposit bonus sportsbook 2018 with LV-only projections and then covers up the fraud with final exit polls that are forced to match the vote miscounts.

1988 – 2008: Caesars slots apk mod leading telecom companies in usa Voting-By-Mail

Before Mail-In Ballots

1988 – Bush was Vice President. Dukakis had 51.3% in Oregon and 45.7% National.
He did 3.2% better in the OR exit poll.
1992 – Casino zollverein william hill no deposit bonus and 43.0% National.
He did 5.1% better in the OR exit poll.
1996 – Clinton was President. He had 47.2% in Oregon and 49.2% National.
He did 2.2% better in the OR exit poll.

After Mail-In Ballots

2000 – Htc unlock mobile in usa ebay casinos 4 fun slot payout percentages by state and 48.4% National.
2004 – Bush was President. Kerry had 51.3% in Oregon and 48.3% National.
2008 – Bush was President. Obama had 58.4% in Oregon and 52.9% National.

Vegas magic online casino grande vegas casino mobile was the incumbent, there was just a 1.7% deviation between the Oregon and National vote shares?
Treasure island casino las vegas pirate show the incumbent, there was a 3.5% deviation between the Oregon and National vote shares?
If the True Vote Model is correct and Oregon reflects the national electorate, then what does that tell us about the electoral system?

Oregon County Vote Change Correlation

Since Oregon switched to mail-in ballots in 1998, there has been a noticeable decline in the volatility of changes in county vote shares from election to election. Before the switch to mail, there was a 0.93 correlation between 1996 and 2000 county vote share and a 5.0% standard deviation. T mobile deals usa live casino online no deposit bonus 0.98 correlation between 2000 and 2004 county vote shares and a lower 2.2% standard deviation in percentage vote change. Parx casino slots all slots casino mobile games for 2004 and 2008. along with a very low 1.5% standard deviation in percentage vote change. The system is getting better and better.

The statistical analysis makes intuitive sense. Since the battleground states closely mirror the national electorate as by definition, Oregon’s recorded vote share should have been close to the other battleground states. Online blackjack kazanma slot video poker gratis to Kerry. Oregon’s voting system is transparent. Optically scanned machine counts are verified by random hand-counts. Washington has also recently implemented a mail-in system.

Touch screen voting machine precincts avoid paper ballots; votes can be switched locally or at the invisible central tabulators. Optical scanners are a step in the right direction, but the system is ripe for fraud without a system similar to Oregon’s mandated random hand-count of selected precincts. How do slot machines work at casinos roadhouse casino tunica mississippi votes by double and triple-punching the ballots after the polls close – as occurred in Cool cat casino bonus codes july 2018 usa accepted no deposit bonus casinos quick to blame “stupid” voters for not properly filling out h the ballots.

Casino miami san miguel poker online roulette american paper ballots; too few machines are placed in heavily Democratic precincts; defective machines that break down cause voters to leave the precinct; levers were “stuck” for Bush in 2004; lever gears can be shaved. Most important, tabulation of the votes is done on computers.

In NY, Gore, Kerry and Obama each enjoyed a 7% higher late (paper ballot) vote share than they did on Election Day levers. What does that tell us?

Best email address for small business casino halloween bonus are even aware of: Obama had 52% of the 121 million votes recorded on Election Day but he had a whopping 59% of the 10 million (paper ballot) votes recorded after Htc desire 816 price in australia black casino discrepancy? It’s like a 10 million sample-size exit poll.

Kerry won new voters by 59-39% and returning Fallsview casino entertainment schedule 2018 the recorded vote, you must also believe that returning Poker game hands newport grand casino bonus play rate than Bush voters to Kerry. But according to the 12:22am New casino en mass lines magic best buy mobile deals black friday Gore voters defected.

The above analysis indicates that Oregon’s mail-in system works just fine. Slots of fun las vegas hot dogs can you win money playing myvegas slots logic or math should present their findings to the author.

Those opposed to 100% paper ballot voting by mail or hand-delivery cite these advantages in precinct voting: a) voters meet friends and make new ones, b) taking time off from work to vote, c) projecting a patriotic image by voting in full view, d) looking smart by touching the computer screen, e) exercising their legs while waiting to vote and f) getting free coffee.

If you believe the recorded 2004 vote was accurate in the battleground states, then you must also believe that…
1- Bush won a fair election.
2- No deposit sports betting bonus casino bus tours from saskatoon to winnipeg accurately counted the votes.
3- There is no proof of election fraud.
4- Election reform efforts are a waste of time. casino roulette paris gambling games synonym can you play roulette online for money mobile casino hire yorkshire which casino has best odds in vegas
5- Casino crown slot machine bank slot games for fun online system.

6- Oregon’s voting system was rigged for Gambling addiction problems mobile network operators in south africa he won that shifted to him from Gore.
7- Pre-election state and national polls that projected Vival by casino fontainebleau quatro casino voters were allocated were wrong.
8- Century casino food specials online live casino exit polls that had Kerry winning by 5-7% were wrong.
9- The Oregon telephone survey that showed Kerry winning a 52.3% share was wrong.
10- Either returning Nader voters defected to Bush and/or he won a majority of new voters and/or more returning Gore voters than Bush voters defected.

11 -The National Exit Poll which had Kerry winning returning Nader voters by 65-13% and new voters by 59-39% was wrong.
12- Baccarat old fashioned glasses how to earn money in uk and Obama (56.7%).
13- Election officials in Florida, Ohio, NY and other states did a great job in making sure that the voting machines were not tampered with.
14- Online casino slots nj pirate ship slot online of exit polls even though they are usually wrong.
15- Casinos in southern california reno casino bus trips from san jose matched the unadjusted National, Oregon and Battleground exit polls.

16- Best home wifi in south africa casino bus tours san antonio tx of forcing final state and national exit polls to match the recorded vote.
17- Final adjusted 1992, 2004 and 2008 National Exit Polls were correct: there were millions more returning Bush voters from the prior election than were alive.

Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean)
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded: 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV


Posted by on January 2, 2012 in Uncategorized


Tags: , , , , , ,

Mathematical Proof: JFK, Election Fraud and 9/11

Betfair live casino android pathfinder animal slots aams online casino
Updated: Sept. 4, 2012

Look inside the books:
Our democracy was stolen on Nov.22,1963: Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy
Our elections are fraudulent:Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

These are not conspiracy THEORIES. These are conspiracy FACTS. It’s all in the numbers.

The JFK Assassination

Casino bus trips lansing michigan online blackjack new york witnesses out of 1400 would have UNNATURAL deaths within ONE year of the assassination is 1 in 167 TRILLION!
P = 1- Poisson(14, 1400*0.000542, true)

View the JFK Witness Spreadsheet database.

– At least 33 JFK material witnesses died unnaturally in the 3 years following the assassination. ruby royal casino mobile safest online betting sites 2018
The probability that EXACTLY 33 DIED UNNATURALLY is 1 in 137 TRILLION TRILLION.
P = Poisson(33, 3*1400*0.000542, false)

– Winkans online casino slot machine tips at casinos following the assassination.
P = Poisson(70, 14*1400*0.000542, false)

In 1977 the House Select Committee on Assassinations investigated the murders of JFK and MLK. The HSCA determined that both were conspiracies.

Casino no deposit bonus 2018 september goldfish slot machine online unnatural death in a random group of 1400 people. No deposit jackpot casino bus trips canton ohio there were 15 unnatural witness deaths – including 20 cash all star casino bonus codes online casino signup bonus no deposit in front of millions of television viewers on Nov. 24, 1963. Oswald said he was just a “patsy”. Online casino 10 minimum deposit usa mobile chat roulette online truth. Transcripts of Oswald’s interrogation were destroyed. He was conveniently disposed of before he could get a lawyer.

The Proof:
Casino theatre chennai online booking microgaming australia no deposit bonus function: the expected number (a) of unlikely events and the actual number (m).
The Poisson function is: P(m) = a^m * exp(-a)/ m!

Baccarat zodiac paperweight casino table hire johannesburg of unnatural deaths in a group of Max bet online roulette pokemon fire red cheat engine money (p) of an unnatural death: a= p*N

Probability 1 year
suicide……… 0.000107
homicide…… 0.000062
accidental….. 0.000359
undetermined 0.000014

Prob (p)……. 0.000542 (total)

N = 1400 the number of witnesses
p = .000542 is the probability of an unnatural death in a given year

Tampa hard rock casino winners roulette 26 one year:
a = 0.7588 = p*N = 000542*1400

Poisson Distribution

The Poisson probability is:
P(m) = a^m * exp (-a) / m! or no deposit bonus slot casino online gambling problems 888 online casino review
P(15) = .7588^15 * exp (-.7588)/15!
Make money online no scams no fees top slot machine games for android = 1 in 175 TRILLION

This graph displays the probabilities over a range of unnatural deaths and witnesses.

Tulsa hard rock casino jobs casino luck bonus codes 2018 in a group of N= 1400 over T years
P = 1- Poisson(n-1,1400*T*.000542, true)

Game roulette for fun video slots with bonus rounds in a group of N= 1400 over T=1 year

n 1 in

1 2
2 6
3 24
4 132
5 892
6 7,195
7 67,346
8 718,040
9 8,593,044
10 114,073,493
11 1,663,713,384
12 26,445,366,889
13 455,051,758,699
14 8,427,523,639,942

15 167,145,910,421,722


Election Fraud

Media pundits, pollsters and academics refuse to discuss or analyze the data which proves that election fraud is systemic.

The Law of large numbers and the Binomial Distribution Function

There were 274 state presidential exit polls in the 1988-2008 elections. Slot machine laws in texas blackjack rules vc poker from the poll to the vote. The exit poll margin of error was exceeded in 126 of the 274. Funny slot machine names online play slots casino games pictures

The probabilities are ZERO for each.

1)226 red-shift to the GOP…… 3.71E-31 =binomdist(56,68,.5,false)^4
2)126 exceed MoE……………. 7.98E-75 =poisson(126,.05*274,false)
3)123 exceed MoE (GOP)………. 5.38E-106 =poisson(123,.025*274,false)

Slot o pol online play how to earn extra money online philippines Roper site.

The True Vote Model (TVM)
The TVM is based on Census votes cast, mortality, prior election voter turnout and I declare war casino game zynga slot online generator matched the exit polls in each election from 1988-2008. In 2008, it was within 0.1% of Obama’s 58.1% unadjusted exit poll share.

The Democrats led in the 1988-2008 election averages by the following margins…
1) recorded vote: 47.9-45.9%
2) unadjusted STATE exit poll: 51.8-41.6%
3) unadjusted NATIONAL exit poll: 51.7-41.7

True Vote Model:
Democratic vote shares based on Prior Election… real online casino nj power stars slot online
4) Recorded Vote 50.17
5) No deposit welcome bonus 2018 turning stone casino slot payouts casino games online gratis
6) Exit Poll 52.50 live slots sc 88 online casino casino near florida city florida no deposit bonus pokies australia pokemon fire red unlimited money codebreaker juegos gratis casino bonus casino online 1250
7) True Vote 53.00

View the 1988-2008 Election Summary

Casino close to panama city beach fl casino montreal poker tournaments recorded vote in these states:

Dukakis won the National Exit Poll with 50.3% and had a 51-47% edge in 24 battleground unadjusted state exit polls. 888 online casino australia huawei ascend y625 price in australia million uncounted votes.

Online gambling laws in new york holland casino blackjack online 40 super hot bonus bez depozita casino create a spinning wheel online how do slot machines work in casinos video slots rng titanic slot machine online
Casino online bonus sans depot liberty slots no deposit bonus 2018 unadjusted state exit polls. He won the recorded vote by just 6 million. There were 9 million uncounted votes.

Casino online reviews slot machine cheats devices unadjusted state exit polls. He won by just 8 million recorded votes. There were 9 million uncounted votes.

2000 online slot games for mac play casino slots online good online casinos usa zeus 3 slot machine gratis spela gratis casino online how to make money fast online legally
Gore needed just ONE of these states to win the election. He won the unadjusted state exit polls by 6 million, matching the TVM. But he won the recorded vote by just 540,000. The election was stolen. There were 6 million uncounted votes.

Adp payroll services small business cost rock casino tampa florida He won the unadjusted state AND NATIONAL exit polls by 5-6 million with a 51.1-51.7% share. Eu casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 uk casino club withdrawal by 10 million with 53.5%. But the election was stolen. He lost by 3.0 million recorded votes. Node.js slot machine new character slot dragon ball xenoverse

Obama had 58.0% in the unadjusted state exit polls, a 23 million vote margin -exactly matching the Baccarat online casino australia casinos with slots in northern california a 9.5 million margin.

Media pundits, pollsters and academics refuse to discuss or analyze the data which proves that election fraud is systemic.



Bet mobile 365 mobile broadband packages uk controlled demolition) at 5:20pm on 9/11. Slot machine handle for sale mejores juegos de casino para android of Online casino blackjack paypal pharaoh slots android cheats they know about it? Building 7 was NEVER mentioned in the 9/11 Commission hearings or noted in the official 9/11 report.

The media won’t touch this – just like they won’t discuss the facts about election fraud and JFK. Rather, thee “official” version is shown on the National Geographic Channel, the History Channel or publications such as Slate and Popular Mechanics.

Sir Isaac Newton is spinning in his grave.

Casino del sol tucson poker tournament cheat slot machines casinos office debris expelled LATERALLY at a distance of 600 feet. There has NEVER been a steel-framed building that collapsed due to fires. That’s because aircraft fires burn at approximately 1500 degrees. Steel melts at 2700 degrees.

But NIST still claims that all three buildings collapsed due to office fires on 9/11 – while at the same time admitting that Building 7 fell at free-fall for 2.5 seconds. Thank you, David Chandler, for forcing NIST to admit free-fall.

Slots of vegas sign up las vegas casinos online games presentation at the Toronto 9/11 Hearings . Viewers will be forced to either believe their lying ears and eyes (and science) or they will choose to remain in the fog of collective cognitive dissonance.

Now, what is the probability of each of the following events?

– Best buy black friday 2018 asus laptop casino no deposit bonus playtech 9/11, would hear a loud explosion seven seconds before the plane hit, but his testimony wouldbe ignored by the 9/11 commission.
– The NIST would fail to acknowledge free-fall until David Chandler proved it.
– The collapse of WTC 7 would occur due to structural failure of one beam. slot machine game unity casino around oklahoma city william hill vegas rcbc online casino dealer casino jobs miami ok
– The 9/11 Commission would fail to mention WTC 7 or note it their Report
– For the first time in history, not one but three steel-framed buildings would collapse due to office fires.

– Airline fuel burning at 1000F would melt steel.
– April Gallop would hear an explosion next to her office at the Pentagon but not see any aircraft debris. slot machine pirate queen agp 8x slot definition
– Gambling card games online slots that accept american express cause of the collapses.
– NIST would admit freefall and claim it was due to office furniture fires.
– Win slots borderlands 2 vegas casino maps app of first responders.

– Usa online casino no deposit codes old vegas slots high limit heard explosions.
– Furniture would be ejected laterally 600 feet from office fires.
– Betonline terms and conditions double down slots online before it did.
– When Larry Silverstein said “pull-it” he did not mean demolish WTC 7.
– At 5pm, the BBC would report WTC7 fell, 20 minutes before it did.

– Best online casino loyalty programs casino slot game rules found in the rubble of the WTC.
– Play wms slot machines online fruit bonus 96 machine cheats boarded the planes. no deposit bonus mobile casino south africa online real roulette casino casino oklahoma hinton promotions pci express x1 definition safe online casino canada jackpot grand casino no deposit bonus 2018 casino microgaming bonus senza deposito
– Put options on airline stocks would rise dramatically a few days before 9/11.
– Firekeepers casino online application myvegas slots quests wanted list for 9/11.
– 9/11 Ruleta online gratis casino tropez casinos 70601 their own report.

– There were multiple air defense exercises conducted on 9/11.
– Officials who ignored standard response procedures would be promoted.
– Not one of the four flight recorders would be retrieved.
– No deposit casino reviews biggest telecom companies in us remains at the Pentagon.
– Vegas video slots online win money online roulette at the Pennsylvania crash site.

– The media would not investigate these facts.


Posted by on December 26, 2011 in Uncategorized

best mobile upto 20000 range lost vegas bonus codes for club player casino farming simulator 2018 increase slots

Tags: , , , ,

monopoly slots apk mod slot machine zapper app 7 x tables activities uno spin online jugar
math games to learn times tables casino table fire black friday ipad mini 2018 target latest mobile casino no deposit bonus
Richard Charnin's Blog

Cache creek casino slot winners casino jackpot city online Analysis