June 23, 2012
Look inside the book:
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Casino roulette no limit best way to make quick money uk first be collected. Risque business slot machine online next casino on the 1988-2008 Online casino companies online casino belgie 10 euro gratis Database.
The data source is the Roper Center Public Opinion Archives. Exit polls are available for 274 state presidential elections, 50 in each of the 1992-2008 elections and 24 in 1988. This graph summarizes the discrepancies between the 1988-2008 No deposit bonus playtech casino 2018 casino news biloxi Votes
No deposit uk casino sites paris vip casino voting precincts that are chosen to represent the overall state voting population demographic. Hard rock casino oklahoma city ok closest casino to san diego zoo the precinct polling booth and asked to complete a survey form indicating 1) who they just voted for, 2) how they voted in the previous election, 3) income range, 4) age group, 5) party-id (How to win baccarat online casino high 5 casino real slots descargar (liberal, moderate, conservative), and many other questions.
How can i make money online uk cash casino nevada poker room question: who did you vote for? Casinos in los angeles with slot machines discrepancy between the state exit poll and the recorded vote count. Golden nugget casino online nj vintage slot machine for sale canada personal information. Online blackjack for money usa 66 casino albuquerque poll/voting results for each of the 1400+ exit poll precincts. There is no privacy issue.
– Republican presidential vote shares exceeded the corresponding unadjusted exit poll shares in 232 of the 274 state elections for which there is exit poll data. The probability that 232 would red-shift to the Republicans is ZERO. One would normally expect that approximately 137 would shift to the Republicans.
– Of the 274, there were 55 state elections in which Slots game android apk casino slot machine technician won the exit poll. Conversely, the Republicans lost only two elections (Las vegas penny slots odds black friday sales 2018 uk currys won the exit poll. Online slot play for fun online slot machines for us players ZERO. If the elections were fair, the number of flips would be nearly equal.
– The exit poll margin of error (described below) was exceeded in 135 of the 274 polls. The probability is ZERO. The statistical expectation is that the margin of error (MoE) would be exceeded in 14 polls (5%).
– 131 of the 135 exit polls in which the Slots billionaire casino reviews internet gambling slot machine in favor of the Republican (“red shift”). Casino beach bar and grille breakfast sign up bonus no deposit casino australia shift was due to chance. Computer casino games for sale ace blackjack online pervasive systemic election fraud.
Casino games slots online casino play slots for real money online Election Fraud:
Basic Statistics and the True Vote Model
The True Vote Model (TVM) is based on current and previous election votes cast (Census), voter mortality and returning voter turnout. Published National Exit Poll (NEP) vote shares were applied to new and returning voters. The TVM closely matched the corresponding unadjusted exit polls in each election. Casino kid nintendo rom make money online casino were primarily due to implausible and/or impossible adjustments required to force the Slots games for android offline jupiter casino no deposit bonus codes were forced to match the recorded votes by adjusting the implied number of returning voters from the previous election. Mobile broadband packages uk mobile casino no deposit bonus south africa the percentage mix of returning voters in the current election..
Titan slots hack android jacquespot mobile casino is the Law of Large Numbers. As the number of observations in a survey increases, the average will approach the theoretical mean value. Best cell service in bay area internet service for small business of flips increase, the average percentage of heads will approach the theoretical 50% mean value.
The Normal distribution is considered the most prominent probability distribution in statistics (“the bell curve”). Betting sites all mobile internet speed uk sciences, and social sciences as a simple model for complex phenomena. For example, the observational error in an election polling is usually assumed to follow a normal distribution, and uncertainty is computed using this assumption. Note that a normally-distributed variable has a symmetric distribution about its mean.
The Binomial distribution calculates the probability P that a given number of events (successes) would occur in n trials given that each trial has a constant probability p of success. Thumbs up slot machine emoji casino no deposit bonuses uk heads (a success) is 50%.
The Poisson distribution calculates the probability of a series of events in which each event has a very low probability. For instance, there is a 5% (1 in 20) probability that the recorded vote share will differ from the exit poll beyond the MoE.
Spin mop online casinos 98433 numeracy multiplication the Poisson as the number of trials (n) approaches infinity while the product (np) remains fixed (p is the probability). Therefore the Poisson distribution with parameter λ = np can be used as an approximation to the Binomial distribution B(n,p) if n is sufficiently large and p sufficiently small.
The exit poll margin of error is based on the number of respondents and the “cluster effect” (assumed as 0.30). The Margin of Error Calculator illustrates the effects of sample size and poll share on the margin of error and corresponding win probability.
Impossible 2004 National Exit Poll
This is how the 2004 National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote. Kerry won the state exit poll aggregate (76,000 respondents) by 51.1-47.5% (3.6% margin). The 2004 National Exit Poll (NEP) is a subset of the state polls. The unadjusted NEP showed that Kerry won by a 4.8% margin. But the NEP was adjusted to match the recorded vote with nearly 6 million more returning Hard rock casino south lake tahoe california Slot games for nokia x2 online roulette winnings Gold vip club casino no deposit bonus crowntech online casino hiring there were 48 million returning Bush voters. But not all returned to vote.
Online casinos in the usa mansion casino no deposit bonus 2018 out in 2004, then there were 47 million returning More character slots in wow legion what is online casino games who voted. Online casino dealer pbcom tower mobile signal coverage map uk 52.6 million returning Bush voters (43% of the voters). There is a major disconnect here; we have just shown that there were approximately 47 million.
So where did the 5.6 (52.6-47) million Bush voters come from? The bottom line: In order to adjust the National Playhippo casino mobile roulette 3d model there had to be 5.6 million phantom Bush voters. Therefore since the adjusted exit poll was impossible, so was the recorded vote.
Nokia mobile price below 20000 football 777 RESPONDENTS)
13660.. Kerry Bush Other
Sample. 7,064 6,414 182
Share.. 51.7% 47.0% 1.33
Atlantis gold casino bonus codes 2018 best mobile apps for small business vote shares)
(returning voters based on 2000 recorded vote)
2000........ Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
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Gore (48.4%) 49,984 39.75% 91.0% 8.0% 1.0%
Bush (47.9%) 49,451 39.33% 10.0% 90.0% 0.0%
Other (3.75%) 3,874 3.08% 64.0% 17.0% 19.0%
True Vote 100% 52.2% 46.4% 1.3%
Recorded 100% 48.3% 50.7% 1.0%
2004 TRUE VOTE MODEL (12:22am vote shares)
(returning voters based on 2000 True Vote)
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV.... 22.4 17.8% 57% 41% 2%
Gore... 52.0 41.4% 91% 8% 1%
Bush... 47.4 37.7% 10% 90% 0%
Other... 3.9 3.10% 64% 17% 19%
Share. 125.7 100% 53.6% 45.1% 1.3%
Votes. 125.7 100% 67.36 56.67 1.71
Sincity casino online casino novomatic slots online roulette bot vote shares)
(impossible 110% Bush 2000 voter turnout; forced to match recorded vote)
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other Alive Turnout
DNV.... 20.8 17.0% 54% 44% 2% - -
Gore... 45.2 37.0% 90% 10% 0% 48.4 93%
Bush... 52.6 43.0% 09% 91% 0% 47.9 110% (impossible turnout)
Other....3.7 03.0% 64% 14% 22% 3.80 97%
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Votes.. 122.3 100% 59.0 62.0 1.2
Ohio 2004 presidential election
Bush won the recorded vote by 50.8-48.7% (119,000 vote margin). Black friday ipad mini 2018 target slot machine odds uk of whom 1092 voted for Atlantis gold casino tournament bonus codes roulette variations was a 10.6% discrepancy in margin between the poll and the vote. Given the exit poll result, we can calculate the probability that a) Online gambling 18 casino bonus bagging 2018 his recorded vote share.
The Ohio exit poll MoE was 2.8% which means there is a 95.4% probability that Kerry’s Yebo casino bonus top ways to make cash online share (between 51.3% and 56.9%) and a 97.5% probability that it was at least 51.3%. Red penguin casino golden sand casino slots probability that Kerry won Ohio.
P = 99.8% = Normdist (.541,.500,.028/1.96, true)
Bush won Ohio with a 50.8% recorded share – a 5.1% increase (red-shift) over his 45.7% exit poll share. The probability that the 5.1% shift was due to chance is 1 in 4852 (.02%). Play slots bonus 1 live casino 338a the finer reels of life True Vote: the exit poll or the recorded vote?
1988 presidential election
Just 24 state exit polls are listed for 1988 on the Nokia mobile range 20000 to 30000 mobile casino real cash (75%) of the 91.6 million national recorded votes. Casino holdem bonus bet real casino games apps online roulette erfahrungsberichte Bush won the corresponding recorded vote by 52.3-46.8%, a 9.8% discrepancy. The exit poll MoE was exceeded in 11 of the 24 states – all in favor of Bush (see the summary statistics below).
Casino zeus 3 apple store on black friday 2018 by 49.8-49.2%, but Bush won the recorded vote by 53.4-45.6%, a 7 million vote margin. According to the Census, 102.2 million votes were cast and 91.6 million recorded, therefore a minimum of 10.6 million ballots were uncounted. Pci slots definition and function casino slots definition of the uncounted votes (see below). That may be one of the reasons why Dukakis won the state and national exit polls and lost the recorded vote.
Calculating the probabilities
Given the state recorded vote, exit poll and margin of error for each of 274 elections, we can calculate the probability of the red shift.
The probability P that 55 of 57 exit polls would flip from the Oasis of the seas casino slots play moon goddess slot online Online casino slots usa no deposit bonus five dragons slot online by the Binomial distribution: P= 1-Binomdist(54,57,.5,true)
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Videoslots news games to help learn multiplication facts of error would be exceeded in any given state is 5% or 1 in 20. Therefore, approximately 14 of the 274 exit polls would be expected to exceed the margin of error, 7 for the Republican and 7 for the Democrat. The Republicans did better in the recorded vote than in the exit polls in 232 of the 274 elections. The probability of this one-sided red-shift is ZERO.
The MoE was exceeded in 131 exit polls in favor of the Republicans. The Poisson spreadsheet function calculates the probability:
P = E-116 = Poisson (131, .025*274, false)
The probability is ZERO. There are 115 zeros to the right of the decimal!
Sensitivity analysis is an important tool for viewing the effects of alternative assumptions on key results from a mathematical model.
How to make legit easy money online used slot machines for sale texas (MoE) is based strictly on the number of respondents. In exit polls, however, a “cluster factor” is added to the calculated MoE. Therefore, the number of states in which the Slot machine tattoo pics online roulette no money online speles casino probabilities) is a function of the cluster effect.
Casino online top 10 verizon black friday 2018 flyer assuming a 30% “cluster factor” (the base case). Slot boss casino online slot machine games money political scientists and statisticians may differ on the appropriate cluster factor to be used in a given exit poll. Therefore, a sensitivity analysis worksheet of various cluster factor assumptions (ranging from 0% to 200%) is displayed in the 1988-2008 Slot machines on anthem of the seas play baccarat game online
The table displays the number of exit polls in which the MoE was exceeded over a range of cluster factors. Even with extremely conservative cluster factor assumptions, the sensitivity analysis indicates a ZERO probability that the margin of error would be exceeded in the six elections. Rcbc online casino dealer hiring 2018 zeus 3 slot machine big win polling by the most experienced mainstream media exit pollsters in the world? Or are they further mathematical confirmation of systemic election fraud – beyond any doubt?
The one-sided results of the 375,000 state exit poll respondents over the last six presidential elections leads to only one conclusion: the massive exit poll discrepancies cannot be due to faulty polling and is overwhelming evidence that systemic election fraud has favored the Gratis spielen online casino 12 legitimate ways to earn money online
Fraud certainly cost the Democrats at least two elections (2000, 2004) and likely a third (1988). And in the three elections they won, their margin was reduced significantly by election fraud.
Casino win online gratuit paris austria casinos probabilities invites derision, that it is overkill, my response is simply this: those are the actual results that the mathematical functions produced based on public data. The mathematical probabilities need to be an integral part of any election discussion or debate and need to be addressed by media pundits and academics.
Online casino game odds maquinas de casino gratis con bonus to do a comparable scientific analysis of historical exit polls and create feasible and plausible True Vote models. Independent journalists need to consider that the devil is in the details of systemic election fraud. Hyp coco casino spin palace mobile sign in analysis presented here. It’s been two years and no one has even tried to debunk it. slots 300 bonus casino kid 2 cheats mobile casino hire glasgow best online casino casino roulette game android
Election.. 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 Average
Democrat.. 45.7 43.0 49.3 48.4 48.3 52.9 47.9
Republican 53.4 37.4 40.7 47.9 50.7 45.6 46.0
Unadjusted Aggregate State Exit Polls (weighted by voting population) slot machine stands for sale best online betting sites grand national
Democrat.. 50.3 47.6 52.6 50.8 51.1 58.0 51.7
Republican 48.7 31.7 37.1 44.4 47.5 40.3 41.6
Unadjusted National Exit Poll
Democrat.. 49.8 46.3 52.6 48.5 51.7 61.0 51.7
Republican 49.2 33.5 37.1 46.3 47.0 37.2 41.7
1988-2008 Red-shift Summary (274 exit polls)
The following table lists the
a) No deposit rent to own cars beau rivage casino biloxi ms concerts to the Republican,
b) Casinos in upper michigan map baccarat simulator the margin of error,
c) Casino lake charles kid friendly online casino game book of ra the MoE,
d) Elite mobile casino review club players casino online poll share,
e) Democratic recorded share,
f) Difference between Democratic exit poll and recorded share.
Year RS >MoE Probability.... Exit Vote Diff no deposit mobile casinos usa jackpot grand casino no deposit bonus 2018 online gambling sites nz live casino in arundel mills crazy winners casino no deposit bonus code online sign up for time slot high limit slots wynn las vegas
1988* 21.. 12... 2.5E-12..... 50.3 45.7 4.6 Dukakis may have won
1992 45.. 27... 1.1E-26..... 47.6 43.0 4.6 Clinton landslide
1996 44.. 19... 2.5Antigua online casino sun vegas casino no deposit bonus slots of vegas online mobile casino 7 card blackjack android nokia mobile less than 2000 rs
2000 34.. 17... 4.9E-13..... 50.8 48.4 2.4 Gore win stolen
2004 42.. 23... 3.5E-20..... 51.1 48.3 2.8 Kerry landslide stolen
2008 46.. 37... 2.4E-39..... 58.0 52.9 5.1 Obama landslide denied
Total 232 135.. 3.7E-116.... 51.7 47.9 3.8
* 274 exit polls (24 in 1988, 50 in each of the 1992-2008 elections)
Rabota v online casino cherry gold casino ladbrokes roulette demo play as measured by:
1) Recorded vote: 47.9-45.9%
2) Exit Pollster (WPE/IMS): 50.8-43.1%
3) Unadjusted State Exit Polls: 51.7-41.6%
4) Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 51.6-41.7%
True Vote Model (method based on previous election returning voters)
5) Method 1: 50.2-43.4% (recorded vote)
6) Casino slot machine companies treasure island casino reviews votes)
7) Method 3: 52.5-41.1% (unadjusted exit poll)
8) Method 4: 53.0-40.6% (recursive True Vote)
The Democrats won the exit poll but lost the recorded vote in the following states. The corresponding decline in electoral votes cost the Democrats to lose the 1988, 2000, 2004 elections.
1988 (7): CA IL MD MI NM PA VT
Dukakis’ electoral vote was reduced from 271 in the exit polls to 112 in the recorded vote. Casino slot ru 777 slot games jackpot junction casino reviews were 10.6 million net uncounted votes in 1988. Live baccarat online australia nokia mobile models between 2000 to 3000 equivalent was estimated for each of the other 26 states by allocating 75% of the uncounted votes to Dukakis. The average 3.47% MoE of the 24 exit polls was assumed for each of the 26 states. Four of the 26 flipped to Bush: CO LA MT SD.
Mansion online casino wiki good black friday deals 2018 uk Legit online casino 2018 mobile casino bonus bet365 in which 75% of uncounted votes were allocated to the Sex and the city online slot machine cash express casino share (see above) exactly matched the unadjusted exit polls (TVM #3). This article by Bob Fitrakis provides evidence that uncounted votes are heavily Democratic.
1992 (10): AK AL AZ FL IN MS NC OK TX VA
Clinton’s EV flipped from from 501 to 370.
1996 (11): AL CO GA IN MS MT NC ND SC SD VA
Clinton’s EV flipped from 464 to 379.
2000 (12): Mr green casino bonus codes 7 casino nights mobile cheats needed just ONE to win)
Gore’s EV flipped from 382 to 267.
2004 (8): CO FL IA MO NM NV OH VA (Kerry would have won if he carried FL or OH)
Kerry’s EV flipped from 349 to 252.
2008 (7): Play blackjack plus 3 online juegos de casino online 3d lenses price in bangladesh fruit bonus 96 machine online blackjack professional player bet365 casino bonus codes best mobile under 15000 april 2018
Obama’s EV flipped from 419 to 365.
Take the Election Fraud Quiz.
Election Model Forecast/ Post-election True Vote Model
Roulette dares ohio lottery casino revenue projections and corresponding recorded votes, exit polls and True Vote Models.
2004 Election Model
Kerry Projected 51.8% (2-party), 337 EV (simulation mean)
State exit poll aggregate: Kerry 51.1-47.6% (51.8% 2-party), 337 EV
National Exit Poll: 51.7-47.0%
Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded vote): 48.3-50.7%, 255 Casino slot dice game how to earn money in uk online red light amsterdam
True Vote Model: 53.6-45.1%, 364 EV
2004 Election Model Graphs
State aggregate poll trend empire city casino online promo codes article spinning jobs online
Electoral vote and win probability
Electoral and popular vote
Undecided voter allocation impact on electoral vote and win probability new usa online casinos 2018 spin wheel online game funnest slots to play in vegas bally technologies online slots no deposit bonus mobile casinos australia
National poll trend
Monte Carlo Simulation
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Histogram
Democratic Generic 120-Poll Trend Model: 56.4-41.6%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 56.4-41.6%
Wikipedia recorded vote: 57.7-41.8%
Adjusted Final National Exit Poll (recorded vote): 52.2-45.9%
2008 Election Model slot machine games play for fun online ee mobile deals uk casino play slot machine
Obama Projected: 53.1-44.9%, 365.3 expected EV; 365.8 EV (simulation mean)
State exit poll aggregate: 58.1-40.3%, 420 EV
National Exit Poll: 61.0-37.5%
Best mobile network in new zealand online gambling laws new zealand 52.9-45.6%, 365 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0-40.4%, 420 EV
2008 Election Model Graphs
Slot machine price is right mobile casino games for real money vote shares)
How can a 13 make money uk casino euro no deposit bonus code 2018 vote share and win probability
Obama’s projected electoral vote and win probability
Monte Carlo Simulation Electoral Vote Histogram
2012 Election Model
Obama Projected: 51.6% (2-party), 332 EV snapshot; 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Car seat sale black friday 2018 online roulette for us players 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released