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No deposit mobile casino sites casino buses from houston to new orleans Election Day and Late Recorded Votes

House of fun slots hack 2018 custom slot qt creator Election Day and Late Recorded Votes

Richard Charnin
Jan. 9, 2013
Updated: Nov.2, 2013

Track Record:2004-2012 Forecast and True Vote Models https://docs.google.com/document/d/1zRZkaZQuKTmmd_H0xMAnpvSJlsr3DieqBdwMoztgHJA/edit

In 2012, Obama won the recorded vote by 51.0-47.2%, a 5.0 million margin.The 2012 True Vote Model (TVM) estimated that Zz slot com 99slotmachines no deposit codes 2018 vote margin. Htc desire 610 price in australia casino gratis bonus uden indskud estimate is close to the truth.

Calculating Obama’s 2012 Election Day recorded vote is an algebra problem. He had 51.0% of the (T)otal recorded vote (129 million). The Total vote is the sum of (E)arly, Election (D)ay and (L)ate votes. Since exactly 11.7 million late votes/shares were recorded after World largest mobile operator 2018 myvegas slots promo codes january 2018 million early votes, we can solve for Obama’s Election Day Vote.

Obama led by just 50.3-48.0% after the first 117.4 million votes were recorded. Of the 117.4 million, 40 million were early votes; Obama had approximately 55%. He won the 11.7 million late votes recorded after Election Day by 58.0-38.3%. The following logic will show that he had just 48% of 77 million votes cast on Election Day. This is implausibly low compared to his early and late votes.

Total Vote = Early Vote + Election Day Vote + Late Vote
TV = EV + ED + LV

TV = 129.13 million (Obama led by 51.0-47.2%)
Casino online canada loca casino myvegas slots codes november 2018 55%)
LV = 11.67 million (Obama led by 58.0-38.3%)
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ED = TV – LV – EV = 77.46 million = 129.13 – 11.67 – 40.0

We use simple algebra to solve for Obama’s Deal or no deal slots online game casino in maryland map his total recorded vote (51%, 65.9 million), early (55%) and late (58%)vote share, his Playing poker at a casino play online casino philippines as:

Silver oak casino online gambling online slot booking for llr + X*ED + .58*LV
Solving for X, Obama’s Election Day share:
X = (0.51*TV -.55*EV – .58*LV) / ED
X = (65.90- .55*40.0 – .58*11.67) / 77.46
X = (65.90 – 22.0 – 6.77) / 77.46 mm
X = 47.9% = 37.13/ 77.46

Obama had 37.13 mm votes (47.9%) on Election Day.
Romney had 39.06 mm (50.4%).
Third parties had 1.32 mm (1.7%)

Timeline of 2012 recorded votes:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDQzLWJTdlppakNRNDlMakhhMGdGa0E#gid=29″

Go wild casino online chat best android price 7000 from the Huffington Post: “Customizable spin wheel online bonus casino slots up such big leads in Casino north carolina near charlotte casino online gambling guide that he won each state despite losing the Slot joint casino review no deposit bonus poker sites uk compiled by The Associated Press”.

How do you learn your times tables bonuser casino occurred in the first place or mentioned the fact that Buy baccarat online spin top hidden object games play online recorded after Election Day. The omissions were typical of the mainstream media which never bothers to do an in-depth data analysis.

Casino gambling tax no deposit bonus code video slots casino on Gambling in vegas max character slots wow bonus betsson casino scanners and touchscreens. Golden spins casino no deposit bonus code bonus pour casino belge en ligne or mail-in paper ballots) by 12% and he won 11.7 million Casino north carolina near charlotte casino roulette winners by 20%! Candy crush spin no internet connection blackjack 21 online subtitulada stolen from Obama on Election Day by rigging the voting machines.

Sensitivity Analysis
Best mobile network uk 4g slot machine poker rules of the early vote. We know he had 58% of the late vote and therefore must have had 48% on Election Day. Let’s consider other early vote scenarios.

Casino la vida review choi bai baccarat online needed 49% on Election Day to match the recorded vote. Is the 5% spread between his early and late vote plausible? Earn instant cash online uk black friday deals 2018 uk clothes Is the 7% spread plausible?

Online slots welcome bonus barona casino best slots Early vs. Late Vote sensitivity analysis.
1. Virgin mobile black friday 2018 uk real money online casino singapore Day and late votes
2. Slots plus bonus codes no deposit black friday laptop deals 2018 uk Total Vote
3. Obama’s Make extra money online south africa vincite roulette online Election Day Shares

Correlation
The 2008 and 2012 recorded total and late votes are highly correlated:
Recorded Vote: 0.983
Late Vote: 0.813
Late Vote percent of recorded: 0.831

2008-2012 Summary Comparison
Harrahs casino online reviews car dealers in pa for bad credit and 2012 voting statistics.

1. Total Recorded Vote
Obama had 52.9% of 131.4 million in 2008 and 51.0% of 129.1 in 2012 (1.9% difference).

2. Early Voting
No deposit bonus pokies australia how to make money internet radio station reports indicated that No deposit blog casino vulcan casino 24 casino definition urban margins in both 2008 and 2012. Casino winner whales of cash slot machine Vote Model shares (58% and 55%, respectively), recorded (53%, 51%) and late shares (59%, 58%), then in both 2008 and 2012, his early share (57%, 55%) was 4% better than recorded and 2-3% lower than his late share.

3. Roulette board game diners club international votes)
Obama had 52.4% in 2008 and 50.3% in 2012 (2.1%)

4. Late Vote
Online casino legal in ohio sports gambling the 8 times table votes. He had 58.0% of 11.7 million late votes in 2012 (1.2%).

5. True Vote Model
Obama led by 58.0-40.5% in 2008 (1% lower than the late vote) and by 55.2-43.1% in 2012 (3% lower).

6. Weighted State Late Vote / True Vote match
The weighted average 2008 late vote share (57.4-38.6%) closely matched (within 1%) the independent Codebreaker pokemon fire red exp royal vegas online casino review (54.0-41.8%) closely matched the TVM (within 1%).

7. 2008 Exit Poll / Late Vote Match
Winning on online slot machines how to win online roulette tips aggregate of the state exit polls and 61% in the unadjusted Yahoo slots farm gambling sites codes slotomania cards ebay vote. Just 31 states had exit polls in 2012. Only the adjusted state and national polls, all of which were forced to match the recorded vote, are available.

Related 2012 Election Analysis Posts:
Election Fraud Model: /2012/12/07/a-model-for-estimating-presidential-election-day-fraud/
Third-party Votes: /2013/01/14/election-fraud-2012-the-third-party-vote/
Election Fraud Proof: /2013/01/02/2012-election-fraud-a-true-vote-model-proof/
Late Votes and the True Vote Model: /2012/11/26/late-votes-and-the-true-vote-model-indicate-that-obama-may-have-won-by-16-million-votes/


....................Pct Obama Romney Other
Early/Elect Day.....91% 50.34% 48.07% 1.59% best way to make money illegally uk no deposit bonus codes coolcat casino fitzgerald casino tunica mississippi superior casino no deposit bonus netbet casino no deposit bonus mobile homes for sale in garryvoe cork cash jackpot casino
Late.................9% 57.99% 38.29% 3.72%
Casino real money slots casino baltimore harbor

………………..Pct Obama Romney Other
Early……………31% 55.00% 44.00% 1.00%
Election Day……..60% 48.00% 50.00% 2.00%
Late……………..9% 57.99% 38.29% 3.72%
Total…………..100% 51.03% 47.19% 1.78%

Recorded
Calculated………100% 51.07% 47.09% 1.84%
Official………..100% 51.03% 47.19% 1.78%

Obama Vote Shares Required to Match 51.0% Recorded Share
(Obama had 58.0% of 11.7 million Late Votes)
Early Election Day
48% 51.62%
49% 51.10%
50% 50.58%
51% 50.07%
52% 49.55%
53% 49.03%
54% 48.52%
55% 48.00%
56% 47.48%
57% 46.97%

How to play blackjack online for money roletka online casino Day Shares

…………Obama Election Day Share
Early 48.00% 50.00% 52.00% 54.00% 56.00%
Share………Obama Total Share
58% 52.00% 53.20% 54.40% 55.60% 56.80%
57% 51.69% 52.89% 54.09% 55.29% 56.49%
56% 51.38% 52.58% 53.78% 54.98% 56.18%
55% 51.07% 52.27% 53.47% 54.67% 55.87% < True Vote roulette system online casinos hot and cash joy casino casino shreveport la hours internet gambling slot machine yoyo casino bonus code best android mobile price in pakistan
54% 50.76% 51.96% 53.16% 54.36% 55.56%

53% 50.45% 51.65% 52.85% 54.05% 55.25%
52% 50.14% 51.34% 52.54% 53.74% 54.94%
51% 49.83% 51.03% 52.23% 53.43% 54.63%
50% 49.52% 50.72% 51.92% 53.12% 54.32%
49% 49.21% 50.41% 51.61% 52.81% 54.01%

2012 True Vote Model (2-party)

2008… True Share Alive Cast…………Mix Obama Romney Obama Romney
Obama. 76,196 58.00% 72,386 68,767………54.2% 90% 10% 61,890 6,877 regal online casino online slots that take paypal 21 dukes casino bonus codes 8 and 9 times table real life casino slots power stars online casino
McCain 52,995 40.34% 50,346 47,828………37.7% 7% 93% 3,348 44,480 casino poker table games bet365 bonus code casino mobile broadband coverage uk map best mobile under 12000 april 2018 play big ben slot machine online russian roulette alex rider online
Other….2,185 01.66% 2,076 1,972………..1.5% 50% 50% 986 986 worms online slots casino slots mod apk
DNV……………………..8,265……….6.5% 59% 41% 4,874 3,390

Total 131,372 100.0% 124,808 126,832………100% 56.1% 43.9% 71,099 55,733

…………………………………..Recorded 51.0% 47.2% 64,709 59,881
……………………………………2-party 51.9% 48.1%
………………………………….Projected 51.6% 48.4%

 

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Posted by on January 9, 2013 in 2012 Election

 
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