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2017 Alabama True Vote: 75% turnout of Clinton voters but only 45% of Trump voters?

Richard Charnin
Dec.14, 2017

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Trump Won the True Vote
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2017 Alabama Senate True Vote Model

In 2016, Trump won the state by 589,000 votes: 62.08-34.36%.
There were 2,123,372 total recorded votes.

In the Senate election, Jones won by 20,715 votes: 49.9-48.4% . platinum play casino no deposit bonus batman joker
There were 1,344,438 total recorded votes.

Returning 2016 Voter Turnout 

Casino oklahoma near me silver queen casino virginia city nevada return in 2017?
That’s what was required to match the recorded vote.

Clinton Trump Moore margin
75%.. 45%.. -20,715 Recorded vote
70%.. 50%.. 70,577 True Vote Model base case
65%.. 55%.. 161,011
60%.. 60%.. 251,446 Equal turnout

True Vote Model: Use identical exit poll recorded vote shares of returning and new voters, but adjust 2016 voter turnout to 70% Clinton and 50% Trump.

Sensitivity Analysis
Online blackjack decks slot machine kit mobile real money casino and 92% of Trump voters.
Moore wins by 51.8-46.5% (71,000 votes)

Worst case scenario: Moore has 2% of Clinton and 90% of Trump voters.
Moore wins by 50.1-48.3% (24,000 votes)

Best case scenario: Moore has 6% of Clinton and 94% of Trump voters.
Moore wins by 53.5-44.8% (117,000 votes)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YoXVkz6KGUoMzEDJBxwROEaukSkgqWVHX3qy_lBxIgc/edit#gid=1736734781

https://www.scribd.com/document/367999441/Moore-Voter-Fraud-Complaint

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/politics/alabama-exit-polls/?utm_term=.8906eed4d60f

Play roulette online for money usa play roulette online for money usa Clinton 75%; Trump 45% 

2016  2017 Returning  Vote
Turnout Voters Pct Jones Moore Oth
Clinton 75% 541,761 40.3% 96.0% 4.0% 0%
Trump 45% 587,210 43.7% 7.0% 92.0% 1%
Other 60% 44,927 3.3% 47.0% 24.0% 29%
DNV (new) 170,539 12.7% 52.0% 46.0% 2%
 Total 1,344,438  100% 49.91% 48.43% 1.66%
 Votes   671,151 650,436 22,811
 Recorded     49.92% 48.38% 1.70%

2016 Baccarat zenith chandelier price intertops classic casino mobile 50% 

 2017 Returning    
2016 Turnout Voters  Pct Jones Moore Other
Clinton 70% 505,644 37.6% 96.0% 4.0% 0.0%
Trump 50% 652,456 48.5% 7.0% 92.0% 1.0%
Other 60% 44,927 3.3% 47.0% 24.0% 29.0%
DNV(new) 141,411 10.5% 52.0% 46.0% 2.0%
 Total 63.32% 1,344,438  True Vote 46.54% 51.79% 1.66%
 Votes 1,344,438 625,740 696,317 22,382
 Recorded 49.92% 48.38% 1.70%
True Vote 
 Sensitivity Analysis
Moore% Clinton
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Moore 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%
% Trump Moore
94% 52.0% 52.4% 52.8% 53.1% 53.5%
93% 51.5% 51.9% 52.3% 52.7% 53.0%
92% 51.0% 51.4% 51.8% 52.2% 52.5%
91% 50.6% 50.9% 51.3% 51.7% 52.1%
90% 50.1% 50.4% 50.8% 51.2% 51.6%
Jones
94% 46.3% 45.9% 45.6% 45.2% 44.8%
93% 46.8% 46.4% 46.1% 45.7% 45.3%
92% 47.3% 46.9% 46.5% 46.2% 45.8%
91% 47.8% 47.4% 47.0% 46.7% 46.3%
90% 48.3% 47.9% 47.5% 47.1% 46.8%
Moore  margin
94% 5.7% 6.4% 7.2% 7.9% 8.7%
93% 4.7% 5.5% 6.2% 7.0% 7.7%
92% 3.7% 4.5% 5.2% 6.0% 6.8%
91% 2.8% 3.5% 4.3% 5.0% 5.8%
90% 1.8% 2.6% 3.3% 4.1% 4.8%
Moore margin (000)
94% 76 87 97 107 117
93% 63 74 84 94 104
92% 50 60 71 81 91
91% 37 47 58 68 78
90% 24 34 44 55 65

 

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