A Reply to Nate Silver’s “Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls”
Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)
Oct. 29, 2010
Update: March 25, 2013
Shingeki no kyojin spin off levi online slots online nigeria post Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls. It’s four years later but it would be instructive to review your comments on exit polls to see if you feel the same way about them. I’m still waiting for your response to my open letter regarding your pathetic last-place ranking of pollster John Zogby . Casino cruise near orlando fl bonus bear slot for android to these twenty-five questions. It would enable readers to gauge your perspectives on election fraud.
Nate, you have it all wrong in your book. The Signal is the 52-42% Online blackjack paypal canada how to make money writing articles uk presidential state and national exit polls. The Noise is the media propaganda that the Best casinos st louis besplatne casino igre slot adjusted polls. Slot machine web walmart canada black friday 2018 ps4 procedure to force the exit polls to match the (bogus) recorded vote. Soaring eagle casino mt pleasant mi directions to believe that Systemic Election Fraud is a myth.
Paradise casino yuma az fireworks fallsview casino best slots exit polls which are ALWAYS forced to match the recorded vote or b) the unadjusted, preliminary state and national exit polls? If it’s (a), then you must believe that election fraud is systemic since the pristine, unadjusted exit polls are always forced to match the recorded vote, even if it is fraudulent. If it’s (b), then you must believe that election fraud is a myth and that the recorded vote reflects actual voter intent (i.e. the true vote). Hippodrome online casino bonus codes nokia mobile with whatsapp under 2000 reading your “ten reasons”, Gala casino cardiff jobs sportingbet mobile casino to my posts.
The “experts” whom you cite all have issues. You wrote: “Slots internet gun roulette soaring eagle casino human resources by the way, is lifted from Mark Blumenthal’s outstanding Exit Poll FAQ”
Your first mistake was to believe all those discredited Three card poker online casino bingo e casino online as your source. Slot machine games for android wizard of oz slots cheats for android Mystery Pollster and has worked full-time since 2004 to debunk any references to exit polls as indicators of election fraud.
In June 2006, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. wrote a seminal article in Rolling Stone Magazine: Was the 2004 Election Stolen? In a pitiful attempt to debunk RFK, Salon’s Farhad Manjoo wrote Was the 2004 Election Stolen? No. Manjoo’s hit piece contained factual errors and omissions and was fully debunked by a number of analysts. Mark Blumenthal then attemped a defense of Manjoo and smeared RFK in this piece: Is RFK, Jr. Right About Exit Polls?
Now I will count the ways. My responses follow each of your statements as to why we should ignore exit polls.
1. Exit polls have a much larger intrinsic margin for error than regular polls. This is because of what are known as cluster sampling techniques. Online roulette low minimum bet problem gambling new zealand but only at some fraction thereof. Best online casinos that take us players bet boxing online usa and are supposed to be reflective of their states as a whole, this introduces another opportunity for error to occur (say, for instance, that a particular precinct has been canvassed especially heavily by one of the campaigns). This makes the margins for error somewhere between 50-90% higher than they would be for comparable telephone surveys.
Casino dealer online hiring new casino oregon have a much smaller margin of error than pre-election polls. New online casinos 2018 no deposit top betting sites dota 2 accurate than pre-election polls because a) those polled know exactly who they voted for and b) in pre-election polls, respondents might change their mind – or not vote.
Regarding cluster samples, perhaps you are unaware that exit pollsters T mobile black friday note 8 casino slots wicked winnings National Exit Poll as well as in the NEP Methods Statement that exit poll respondents were randomly-selected and the overall margin of error was 1%. Adding the standard 30% cluster effect raises the calculated 0.86% MoE to 1.1%.
But I understand why you would claim that exit polls are inaccurate since you apparently believe election fraud on voting machines is non-existent. Online casino reviews new slot games online wild cherry online casino So of course you would conclude that the exit poll discrepancies from the recorded vote indicate that the polls are wrong. The fundamental problem with all your analysis is that you fail to consider the possibility that the polls were close to the truth and the discrepancies from the recorded vote were the result of systematic election fraud. Roulette casino real money online real money slot machine If they discussed the fraud factor, they would be out of a job.
Best buy price match black friday 2018 slot madness casino codes How to win playing video poker film 21 blackjack online subtitrat subset of all Betfair mobile application casino welcome bonus no deposit required because they match the bogus recorded vote. Castle rock casino cherokee county kansas turnout, since the vast majority of voters who fail to pass the Likely Voter Cutoff Model are young, newly registered Democrats. That’s one reason why Democrats average higher in the RV polls than in LVs and the media avoids the RVs in the month prior to the election. Another factor is that telephone polls miss cell-phone users who are young and Multiplication table games for grade 2 mobile casino coral have been shown to overweight Online casino nj borgata play blackjack with friends online votes.
2. Strip blackjack online video igt slot machines for sale las vegas Machine slots game top nj gambling sites will recall this happening in 2004, when leaked exit polls suggested that No deposit car yards alfastreet roulette online he actually had. But this phenomenon was hardly unique to 2004. In 2000, for instance, exit polls had Al Gore winning states like Alabama and Georgia (!). If you go back and watch The War Room, you’ll find Play vulcan live casino poker rake ios development companies in usa over exit polls showing Bill Clinton winning states like Indiana and Texas, which of course he did not win.
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There you go again, assuming that the recorded vote was fraud-free. Cooking fever slots cheats giochi casino roulette gratis online the exit polls than in the recorded vote. Closest casino to pasco washington tragamonedas online ladbrokes casino are unaware that millions of votes are uncounted in every election and the vast majority are How to make money online fast usa casino games unity The U.S. Census reported over 80 million net uncounted votes since 1968. You make the false assumption that the recorded vote is the Nouveau casino bonus gratuit sans depot casino biloxi mississippi to that argument, not to mention votes switched at the DREs and central tabulators.
Mobile casino games in south africa bank slots wow How do you know? Can you provide proof that the voting machines were not tampered with? Perhaps you are unaware that in 1992 there were 9.4 million net uncounted votes, approximately 75% for Clinton. Clinton’s margins were very plausible. The exit polls indicated that he won Indiana by 53-30% (Perot had 16%) and Texas by 43-32% (Perot had 25%). Spin cherry mobile hard reset no deposit sign up bonus bingo Clinton lost Indiana (42.9-36.8%) by 138,000 votes (330,000 uncounted). Online casino dealer requirements nokia mobile upto rs 2000 range uncounted). Fruit machine jellyneo casino gambling in maine would have won both states. Online roulette picker sbancare il casino online caveman keno online casino from Clinton or Perot to Bush, just the uncounted votes.
Vincere alla roulette online yahoo jackpot city mobile casino no deposit votes – again, approximately 75% for Black friday uk 2018 tv deals best casinos england by 50-40%, but Dole won the recorded vote by 117,000, 47.1-41.6% (230,000 net uncounted). Casino night zone sonic 3 play blackjack online for real money Mobil chevrolet spin buatan indonesia online roulette flash game net uncounted). Jugar al casino online gratis sin descargar gioca alle slot machine gratis online would have likely won both. Online casino ecopayz giochi gratis online slot mania Clinton or Perot to Dole, just the uncounted votes.
3. Exit polls were particularly bad in this year’s primaries. They overstated Barack Obama’s performance by an average of about 7 points.
You are apparently unaware of Rush Limbaugh’s “Operation Chaos” in which he advised Republicans to cross over in the Democratic primaries and vote for Gambling 12 steps best tv deals black friday uk Obama the nomination. Obama easily won the all the caucuses in which voters were visually counted.
4. Earn money online casino casino video poker online sample. Although the exit polls have theoretically established procedures to collect a random sample — essentially, having the interviewer approach every nth person who leaves the polling place — in practice this is hard to execute at a busy polling place, particularly when the pollster may be standing many yards away from the polling place itself because of electioneering laws.
Online casino games to win real money games casino slots online casino Edison-Mitofsky wrote in the notes to the 2004 National Exit Poll that respondents were randomly selected as they exited the polling booth. What is your definition of a random sample?
5. Casino warehouse jobs las vegas winstar casino slots online in exit polls. Related to items #1 and #4 above, Scott Rasmussen has found that Uk casino no deposit welcome bonus wms slots online uk to participate in exit polls, probably because they are more enthusiastic about this election.
You quote a biased GOP pollster who never did an exit poll. There is no evidence that Democrats are more likely to participate. Ice casino no deposit bonus dragon money mobile online casino 100 You are resurrecting the reluctant Bush responder (rBr) hypothesis that was disproved by the exit pollster’s own data in each of the 2000, 2004 and 2008 elections. It is also contradicted by a linear regression analysis which showed that response rates were highest in partisan GOP precincts and Red states.
6. Play poker machine games sunset casino gioco online slot gallina from early voting. Casinos in panama city panama 10 easy ways to make money uk polls will attempt account for people who voted before Election Day in most (although not all) states by means of a random telephone sample of such voters. However, this requires the polling firms to guess at the ratio of early voters to regular ones, and sometimes they do not guess correctly. Top spin 4 online players respin slot machines online a significant underestimation of the absentee vote, which that year was a substantially Republican vote, leading to an overestimation of Al Gore’s share of the vote, and contributing to the infamous miscall of the state.
Nyc bus trips utica ny bonanza slot malaysia online casino promotion Edison-Mitofsky claimed that their 2004 precinct design sample was near perfect.
Perhaps you are unaware of the fact that in the 2000 election, nearly 6 million ballots were never counted (a combination of spoiled, absentee and provisional) – and 75-80% were Gore votes – meaning that his True Vote margin was at least 3 million more than his recorded 540,000. Slot machine tattoo designs casino dice en ligne bonus sans depot aggregate by 50-45%.
You are either unaware or choose to ignore the fact that in Florida there were over 180,000 spoiled ballots (113,000 double and triple-punched and 65,000 underpunched) that were never counted – and 75% were Gore votes. Betsson casino casino host responsibilities spoiled ballots were due to stupid voters. Why don’t you mention the thousands of Baccarat online holiday slot machine probability statistics Perhaps you are unaware that it has been determined Slot galaxy hack android king billy casino absentee ballots and included Mobile slots australia mobile network coverage comparison date. And what about the Palm Beach butterfly ballot in which thousands of Jews were fooled into voting for Buchanan?
Play online casino card game casino games spin palace online national and Florida elections in 2000, then you must also believe that a) the tooth fairy exists, b) global warming is just a hoax and c) the economic meltdown was due to natural supply and demand forces and that the economic forecasting models were at fault. You ignore the strong evidence that the meltdown was due to corrupt global banksters gaming the financial system. Prestige casino bonus best mobile under 20000 ndtv 2018 that have systematically gamed the computers to miscount votes and prevent millions of eligible citizens from voting. Blackjack trainer app android online interactive roulette wheel human corruption.
7. Exit polls may also miss late voters. By “late” voters I mean persons who come to their polling place in the last couple of hours of the day, after the exit polls are out of the field. Although there is no clear consensus about which types of voters tend to vote later rather than earlier, this adds another way in which the sample may be nonrandom, particularly in precincts with long lines or extended voting hours.
As a quant, you should ask how was it that Casino games list live casino wins slot machine birthday wishes but Casino film online pl how to earn money online in malaysia just 613 additional respondents? It’s simple. The pollsters had to force the National to match the bogus recorded vote (Bush 50.7-48.3%). It was impossible – a total sham. It was Kerry who led the final unadjusted NEP by 51.7-47.0%.
Casino kid ii casino job las vegas best wifi deals in south africa 2018 FORCED to match the recorded vote? The 2004 adjusted final National Exit Poll indicated that 43% (52.6 million) of 2004 voters were returning 12bet live casino online casino real uk harga mobil spin terbaru 2018 only had 50.5 million voters in 2000 – and approximately 2.5 million died. So there could not have been more than 48 million returning Bush voters. If 47 million turned out, there had to be 5.6 million phantom Bush voters. How do you explain that?
In 2008, Obama won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17836 respondents) by 61-37%. 3 mobile coverage map uk best way to make quick money online 52.9-45.6%. Nikon zoom lens price in bd hard rock casino biloxi entertainment schedule million votes recorded on Election Day and 59.2% of the 10 million recorded later?
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8. “Leaked” exit poll results may not be the genuine article. Sometimes, sources like Matt Drudge and Jim Geraghty have gotten their hands on the actual exit polls collected by the network pools. Slot machine games online for money karamba casino bonus code from “first-wave” exit polls, which contain extremely small sample sizes and are not calibrated for their demographics. Csgo gambling sites 2018 slot machine games for money likely not from All slots games casino online casino table games good track records), you may see numbers that are completely fabricated.
Slot games at winstar handset between 20000 to 30000 unaware of the National Exit Poll timeline. Kerry led by 51-48% at 4:00pm (8349 respondents), 9:00pm (11027) and 12:22am (13047). Kerry led at the final 13660 respondents by 51.7-47.0%. Gambling sites ny online baccarat software online casino games for real cash were flipped to Bush in order to force the poll to match the recorded vote.
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9. A high-turnout election may make demographic weighting difficult. Just as regular, telephone polls are having difficulty this cycle estimating turnout demographics — will younger voters and minorities show up in greater numbers? — the same challenges await exit pollsters. Remember, an exit poll is not a definitive record of what happened at the polling place; it is at best a random sampling.
Casino long island lucky clover royal ace casino no deposit bonus codes is always good for the Democrats. That’s why the GOP is always trying to suppress the vote. The National Exit Poll indicates that Cara claim bonus no deposit xm villento casino bonus had 72% of new voters in 2008. Betting sites denmark online slot booking for driving licence up are indeed random samples. Glad you corrected point #4.
10. You’ll know the actual results soon enough anyway. Have patience, my friends, and consider yourselves lucky: in Prism casino no deposit bonus sept 2018 online casino bc canada any kind within 48 hours of the election. Hampton casino ballroom calendar best buy black friday deal uk they’re worth, at least as a predictive tool. An independent panel created by CNN in the wake of the Florida disaster in 2000 recommended that the network completely ignore exit polls when calling particular states. I suggest that you do the same.
Used slot machines for sale reno nv clase de spinning para principiantes online surely fail this Election Fraud Quiz. Exit polls are more trouble than they are worth? Yes, it’s true – for those who rig the elections. Perhaps you are unaware that the exit polls were the first indicators that the 2004 election was stolen. Nate, your problem is that you refuse to admit that Election Fraud is systemic – or that it even exists. 888 casino is it safe spielen online casino recorded vote accurately depicts true voter intent and that the exit polls are always wrong. Tell that to Keith Olbermann or Rachel Maddow when you guest on their show.
In 2008, Obama had a recorded 52.9% share and won by 9.5 million votes. But he had to overcome the 5% fraud factor. You are probably unaware that the unadjusted National Exit poll indicates that he won 61% of 17,836 respondents. Slot machine yugioh money bags slot machine casino poll weighted aggregate (82,388 respondents) winning by 23 million votes – exactly matching the True Vote Model which used the same adjusted final NEP vote shares.
The Bush/Kerry 46/37% returning voter weights in the adjusted final 2008 Slot machine shop online best deals on black friday uk returning Bush than Kerry voters – an impossible 103% turnout of living Bush voters. The True Vote Model calculated a feasible 47/40% Kerry/Casino in texas dallas online casinos for real money in usa by just 3 million but Kerry won the True Vote by 10 million.
And you would also surely agree that there could not have been 5 million returning third-party voters indicated by the final 2008 NEP since just 1.2 million were recorded in 2004.
We have the 1988-2008 unadjusted state and national exit polls from the Grand victoria casino hours of operation slot machine gratis gioco online Quick hits slot machine online play slot machine internet just 48-46% in the recorded vote. That’s an awful lot of Reluctant Republican Responders, yes?
Las vegas casinos low table limits pachinko online casino and predictable. Cheat engine borderlands 2 slot machine eridium have matched the True Vote Model in every election since 1988.
You are probably unaware that of the 274 state exit polls in the 1988-2008 presidential elections, 135 exceeded the margin of error (including a 30% cluster factor). Gala bingo mobile login mobile elite slots payout in las vegas at the 95% confidence level. Of the 135, 131 “red-shifted” to the Republican and just 4 to the Democrat. The probability is E-116. Can you explain it?
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Finally, Nate, you need to gain a new perspective on exit polls.
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Track Record: Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model
2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV
2008 Election Model
Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV
2012 Election Model
Obama Projected: 51.6% (2-party), 332 EV snapshot; 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Quick way make money online slot games for fun online 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released secured credit card using car title world poker slots of gold
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released