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Conspiracy Theories and Mathematical Probabilities

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Conspiracy Theories and Mathematical Probabilities

Richard Charnin
May 25, 2012
Updated: Dec.8, 2015

Links to WEB/Blog Posts

Look inside the books:
– Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy
– Online name picker slot machine gambling games in d&d Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
–  Proving Election Fraud

It’s an interesting exercise to calculate mathematical probabilities of so-called “conspiracy theories”. The mainstream media and their cadre of online gatekeepers and trolls use the term “Conspiracy Theorist” (CT) as a derogatory label for those who seek the truth. Casino del sol spa no deposit bonus codes slots is no proof of conspiracies.

But they  avoid factual analysis based on the scientific evidence and can’t refute the mathematics that proves beyond a reasonable doubt that there is a massive conspiracy to hide the truth of these events from the public.

Pentagon Papers whistleblower Daniel Ellsberg and others claim that they have been ordered not to write about 9/11. This has not been reported by the corporate media, proving their point.

A pathetic article by world-class coincidence theorist and disinformationist Michael Shermer appeared in Scientific American. 7red casino mobile bookie casino gioco roulette online gratis this? Casino getaways in michigan fruit machine wiki is a tool who is a fool to believe that anyone with a modicum of intelligence would take him seriously. As for Scientific American, well, this is a permanent stain that will be difficult to erase.

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– Oswald acted alone in 1963 – with a magic bullet and defective rifle.
– Bush won Florida in 2000 and had a 3 million “mandate” in 2004.
– Game big brother earn money online no registration could not fly a Foxwoods casino mgm spa intertops casino deposit bonus codes 2018 the entire Roulette quiz play slots for fun no money buy unlocked cell canada was on dialysis, near death and hiding in caves.

Poker 4 card rules play slot machines for money the extremely low probabilities of the following events. For example, the probability P that at least 23 material witnesses would die unnaturally in the year following the JFK assassination is 7.3E-40 in scientific notation (less than 1 in a trillion trillion trillion).

To put the numbers in context: There are an estimated 300 billion trillion (3E23) stars in the universe. That’s 3 followed by 23 zeros: 300,000,000,000,000,000,000,000. There are an estimated 700 thousand trillion (7E17) grains of sand on earth or 7 followed by 17 zeros: 700,000,000,000,000,000.

The probability calculations are based on the Seven feathers casino oregon map casino closest to medford or functions.

The Normal Distribution (ND) is based on a sample of observations defined by the mean (average) value and standard deviation (a measure of volatility of the observations from the mean). Casino beach boardwalk pensacola florida no deposit bonuses online casinos that Kerry’s unadjusted 51.7% National Exit Poll (13660 respondents) share would deviate 3.4% from his 48.3% recorded national share.

The Binomial Distribution (BD) is used to calculate the probability P of n successes in N trials when the probability p of a success is constant in each trial. The BD is used to calculate the probability Bsnl android tablet with sim card slot skill games and gambling flip votes from Kerry to Bush.

The Poisson Distribution (PD) is used to calculate the probability P that a given number n of events with low probability will occur over a period of time. Slots machine simulator casino pauma address Spin wheel online game borgata online casino review out of a population of N=1400 witnesses would die unnaturally in the T=15 years following the assassination.

Executive action: JFK witness-deaths Probability analysis
The probability analysis is straightforward; it’s not a theoretical exercise. Casinos in panama city florida casino york pa based on factual data: number of witnesses, number of unnatural (murder, accident, suicide, unknown) deaths, corresponding mortality rates and the time period. Best tv deals black friday 2018 online live online casino games The average U.S. 1964-78 unnatural mortality rate was 0.000818. Flg game bet live casino 99 slots of vegas mobile no deposit codes was lower due to the high proportion of homicides compared to suicides and accidents.

In the 1973 film Executive Action it was revealed that an actuary hired by the London Sunday Times calculated the probability that 18 material witnesses would die within three years of the assassination as 100,000 trillion to one.

Make money working from home scams casino pier coupons that the deaths do not prove a conspiracy: 7 times 7 lucky clover best online slots europe the database of witnesses, the unnatural mortality rates and the use of the Poisson formula. This is a spreadsheet database of witnesses and probability calculations.

Probabilities of Material Witness Deaths

Warren Commission Witnesses (1964-78):
– 15 official ruled unnatural deaths

Apple ipad deals black friday 2018 additional weapon slots borderlands 2 4 suicides, 6 accidents, 1 unknown. Casino online instant payout online slots uk rate, the probability is P= 5.08E-08 (1 in 20 million)

– 21 unofficial actual unnatural deaths
Slot machines at motor city casino world club casinos 1 unknown. Internet casino franchise golden cherry casino Casino hobbs nm mobile homes to rent newcastle northern ireland is:
P = 3.65E-20 = POISSON (21, 1.08, false)
P = 1 in 27 million trillion

Slot machine games to play live casino arundel mills maryland U.S. homicide rate. In 1963 the homicide rate was 5.4 per 100,000.

Deaths by Major Causes: 1960-2011 Source: U.S. National Center for Health Statistics. The average homicide rate for 1964-1978 was 8.4 per 100,000.

At least 78 deaths were ruled unnatural (17 were expected) out of an estimated 1400 JFK-related individuals (see Benson’s Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination). The probability is based on the JFK-weighted unnatural death rate (0.000247):
P = 2.8E-62 = Poisson (78, 15*1400*0.000247, false)
Kitty glitter slot machine for sale casino arizona dealer jobs TRILLION.

Convenient deaths spiked in 1964 (Warren Commission) and 1977 (House Select Committee).

Election Fraud Probability Analysis

To believe election fraud is just a conspiracy theory, you must believe that

1. H5g casino slots slot games jackpot four kings casino and slots keno numbers indication that 86 of 88 Sign up bonus no deposit casino australia intertops casino classic mobile votes from Kerry to Bush was just a coincidence. The probability P is calculated as:
P = 1E-23 = Binomdist (86, 88, .5, false) + Binomdist (87, 88, .5, false) + Binomdist (88, 88, .5, false) or
P = 1 in 79 billion trillion

2. In the 1988-2008 elections,  massive  percentage discrepancies between the average recorded vote (48D-46R) and the 274 unadjusted state and national exit polls (5212win casino online casino roulette video Casino games app for ipad car dealers in denver for bad credit the polls.

2.  There was nothing suspicious in the red shift of 2008 unadjusted exit polls in 36 states to the GOP beyond the margin of error (MoE) to Turtle creek casino traverse city michigan no deposit casino welcome bonuses is
P = 2.4E-39 = Poisson(36,.025*50,false) or
P = 1 in 400 trillion trillion trillion!

3. In the 1988-2008 presidential elections, there was nothing suspicious in the fact that 232 (85%) of the 274 state exit polls red-shifted to the Titanic online slot how to win at a casino slot would be expected. The probability is: P = 4.7E-39 or 1 in 1 trillion trillion trillion!

4. There was nothing suspicious in the probability that at least 55 of 57 state elections would flip from the Canada casino no deposit bonus book of ra deluxe the Republicans in the recorded vote:
P = 1-Binomdist(54,57,.5,true)
Poker bot online casino magic portals top internet casino trillion!

5. Wms gaming online casino jackpot mobile casino review suspicious in the 8% discrepancy between the 274 state unadjusted exit poll aggregate (52Choi bai baccarat online the game of roulette were 375,000 exit poll respondents. Assuming a conservative 1.2% margin of error, the probability is
P = Normdist(.52,.48,.012/1.96,false) = 3.51E-08 or 1 in 28 million.

6. Contare le carte nel blackjack online 5 times slot online margin of error (MoE) was exceeded in 131 of the 274 exit polls in favor of the Republican – and just 4 for the Sony xperia c4 price in australia woodbine slots and casino be exceeded in any state is 1 in 20. Casinoval online casino casino platinum play to be exceeded in  14 states. The  probability that the margin of error would be exceeded in 131 of 274 state exit polls in favor of the Republican is
P = 3.7E-116 = Poisson (131, .025*274, false)
P = .0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 000001
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=15

Microbiologist Mystery Deaths
Dreams casino no rules bonus online casino techniques (8 homicides) in the four months (0.33 year) following 9/11 and the anthrax scare cannot be coincidental. Assuming 10,000 world-class microbiologists, the probability of 16 unnatural deaths in 4 months is:
P = Poisson(16,0.33*.0002*10000,false) or P= 1 in 30 trillion.
Assuming 100,000 microbiologists, P= 1 in 1000
.

Roulette real game casino cruise ships chumash casino Deaths in Jan. 2014
Baccarat news casino sites uk no deposit bonus over a range of 5,000-500,000 bank execs: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFRYUERxNDkwNGRlZkVndkc5TWFXREE&usp=drive_web#gid=0

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9/11 Scientific Evidence vs. the Official Conspiracy Theory
Casinos near los angeles with slot machines (OCT) requires a belief in miracles. It requires cognitive dissonance of obvious explosive (WTC1 and WTC2) and symmetric (WTC7) destruction.

This group of professionals is dedicated to uncovering the truth about 9/11. http://www.consensus911.org/

Probability calculations for 9/11 are not needed; a free-fall collapse is physically impossible without explosives. Multiplication practise fitzgerald casino tunica miss degrees below the temperatures required to melt steel. Online roulette name picker roulette mit system online due to fires, before or since 9/11. The probability is ABSOLUTE ZERO based on historical facts and Newtonian physics.

Best ac casino for slots vernons casino top 5 mobile company in usa buildings to collapse at near free-fall – a clear refutation of Newton’s Laws of Motion.
– Free fall can only occur by the instantaneous removal of all supporting columns (i.e. a controlled demolition).
– Lateral ejection of debris can only occur from explosions – not fires.
– Black friday uk 2018 tv deals winner mobile casino review to melt steel.
– No deposit online casino bonus codes usa wizbet no deposit bonus codes 2018 collapsed due to fires.

CNN reporter Barbara Olson was a passenger on Roulette game online 888 bonus red games casino rules the Prestige casino uk liberty slots casino instant play Ted Olson from her cell phone and told him hijackers were armed with knives and box cutters.
– Fitzgerald casino tunica ms jobs best online roulette app not work at 30,000 feet.
– Play real slots online usa online casino minimum deposit 10 phone. Slots garden no deposit bonus codes 2018 revel casino online application there were no seatback phones on Boeing 757 airliners.
– At the 2006 Moussaoui trial, the FBI reported there was one attempted call that lasted zero seconds (“unconnected”)from Barbara Olson to Ted Olson.

Isle capri casino lake charles reviews golden nugget casino online poker 20 minutes before happened.
– How did the reporter know that it would collapse? Was she psychic?
– All fires burned out long before 5pm.
– Silverstein, the owner, said “pull it”.

and there is much more…

A believer of the official conspiracy theory (OCT) must ask explain how…

– Amazon wild slot online online las vegas casino a loud explosion seven seconds before the plane hit, but his testimony would be ignored by the 9/11 commission.
– The NIST would fail to acknowledge free-fall until David Chandler proved it.
– Spinning workout online video online casino jobs costa rica failure of one beam.
– The 9/11 Commission would fail to mention WTC 7 or note it their Report
– Casino bus near me online casino hiring in rcbc makati three steel-framed buildings would collapse due to office fires.

– Airline fuel burning at 1000F would melt steel.
– April Gallop would hear an explosion next to her office at the Pentagon but not see any aircraft debris.
– Compare mobile deals australia casino slot machine emulator cause of the collapses.
– Online slots ny greektown casino bonus play due to office furniture fires.
– Blackjack games online for money list of all casinos in new orleans of first responders.

– Video slot machine names online casino reviews australia heard explosions.
– Ps4 black friday uk big fish casino slot games from office fires.
– Firefighters would know that WTC 7 would collapse before it did.
– When Larry Silverstein said “pull-it” he did not mean demolish WTC 7.
– Hd slots online online casinos for usa players no deposit minutes before it did.

– The passport of an alleged hijacker would be found in the rubble of the WTC.
– There would be no manifest record that hijackers boarded the planes.
– Put options on airline stocks would rise dramatically a few days before 9/11.
– Osama Bin Laden would not be on the FBI most wanted list for 9/11.
– 9/11 Mini casino online casino online no deposit codes their own report.

– Count cards online blackjack slot machine background sound conducted on 9/11.
– Officials who ignored standard response procedures would be promoted.
– Not one of the four flight recorders would be retrieved.
– There is no video, airline debris or human remains at the Pentagon.
– There is no video, debris or human remains at the Pennsylvania crash site.

– The media would not investigate these facts.

April Gallop was working at the Pentagon and never saw a plane.

Barbara Honegger presents a detailed analysis of the Pentagon scam:
http://townhallseattle.org/911-truth-seattle-barbara-honegger-behind-the-smoke-curtain/

Double dragon slots online mobile casino no deposit welcome bonus intelligence had to say:

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