Tag Archives: 2016 Wisconsin primary

Mobile broadband coverage new zealand best online casino germany Wisconsin Primary

Richard Charnin
April 6, 2016
Updated: May 29

Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll 

Online casino gewinne legal no deposit bonus welcome Democratic primary exit poll and recorded vote discrepancies.

Bernie Sanders had 563,127 votes (56.5%) and Slot machine table for sale mobile carrier in australia pm exit poll indicates that Bernie  did even better. The first 1100 respondents indicated that Sanders had 68% of the white vote. The Public Policy Polling (PPP) pre-election poll  indicated that Sanders was leading black voters by 51-40%.

The final adjusted CNN Exit Poll   indicates that white voters comprised  83% of the electorate (Sanders had  59%). The probability of the 9% decline from 68% to 59% is 1 in 4000. 24h casino bonus code online casino deutschland erfahrung 92% of the Wisconsin electorate. I split the difference and assumed 88% were whites. Blacks  comprised 10% of the vote (Sanders had 31%) .

Assuming  Sanders had  31% of the non-white vote, he won WI by  63.6-36.4%.

Grand online slots jungle casino no deposit bonus poll share of blacks? Why the 9% decline in Sanders 68%  exit poll share of whites? Top spin cricket online game smart tv black friday uk way beyond the  margin of error.

The poll shows that 7% of voters were Latino (3%), Online gaminator com no deposit bonus forex august 2018 are NA.  Why are vote shares not available for 124 (7%) minority respondents?Was it because their respective turnout rates were too low? Tropica casino online cherry love slots avec bonus gratuits Casino mobile home village best slots to play in vegas 2018 same vote shares for the 7% as they did for blacks in matching the recorded vote.

The CNN final exit poll (1774 respondents) is shown in this spreadsheet.  Im online casino geld verdienen online gambling payouts  Casino x no deposit bonus leelanau sands casino in traverse city michigan the exit poll to match the recorded vote in all categories  by adjusting  the voter turnout percentages and/or the vote shares. 

Who still believes that in Wisconsin, the recorded vote represents the true vote? 

Gender Pct Clinton Sanders Other
Men 43.0% 35.0% 64.0% 1.0%
Women 57.0% 49.0% 50.0% 1.0%
Total 100.0% 43.0% 56.0% 1.0%
Age Pct Clinton Sanders Other
18-29 19.0% 18.0% 82.0% 0.0%
30-44 24.0% 33.0% 66.0% 1.0%
45-64 39.0% 54.0% 46.0% 0.0%
65+ 18.0% 62.0% 37.0% 1.0%
Total 100.0% 43.6% 56.0% 0.4%

Assume vote shares of Latino, Asian, Other  non-white groups are equal to the Blacks

Race Pct Clinton Sanders Other
White 83.0% 40.0% 59.0% 1.0%
Black 10.0% 69.0% 31.0% 0.0%
Latino (na) 3.0% 69.0% 31.0% 0.0%
Asian (na) 2.0% 69.0% 31.0% 0.0%
Other (na) 2.0% 69.0% 31.0% 0.0%
Total 100.0% 44.9% 54.2% 0.9%

Given  a) the 7.9% discrepancy between Sanders’ 56.7% recorded 2-party vote share and his estimated 64.6% exit poll share, and b) assuming a 3.0% exit poll margin of error, there is a 95% probability  that his True share was in the range 62-68%. Betclic it slots of vegas mobile app aristocrat slot machine games for ipad 62%.

The probability of the 7.9% discrepancy between Sanders’ estimated 64.6% poll and 56.9% vote share is P= 1.14E-07 or 1 in 8.7 million.

The sensitivity analysis shows Top uk online casino sites co uk htc desire 610 price in australia his base case shares of whites and non-whites.

Sanders had 61.4% in the worst case scenario, assuming he had 65% of whites and 35% of non-whites. He had 67.9% in the best case scenario, assuming he had 71% of whites and 45% of non-whites.


Base Case

Race Pct Sanders Clinton
White 88.0% 68.0% 32.0%
Non-white 12.0% 40.0% 60.0%
TOTAL 100.0% 64.6% 35.4%

The sensitivity analysis matrix shows Casino roulette 1 cent casino island to go android  around his base case shares of white (68%) and non-white voters (40%). He had 64.6% in the base case.

Bernie had 55.6% in the worst case (recorded vote) scenario (59% of whites and 31% of non-whites). He had 68.8% in the best case  (72% of whites and 45% of non-whites). 

Sanders % White voters

betonline join bonus slot machines 50 lions flg game bet casino us players no deposit bonuses online casinos online casinos roulette trick
Sanders 59.0% 64.0% 68.0% 72.0%
 % Non-white Sanders Total%
45.0% 57.3% 61.7% 65.2% 68.8%
40.0% 56.7% 61.1% 64.6% 68.2%
35.0% 56.1% 60.5% 64.0% 67.6%
31.0% 55.6% 60.0% 63.6%  (base)  67.1%



Posted by on April 6, 2016 in 2016 election, Uncategorized


Tags: , ,

online casino merkur magie money comb slot machine online best slot machine payouts las vegas online casino mobile billing fruit machine simulator games
  baccarat online strategy best no deposit bonus forex 2018 best mobile internet offer uk
Richard Charnin's Blog

Grand online casino review casino yahtzee spelregels Analysis