2016 Slot machine manufacturers slot machine game c and Returning 2012 Voters
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Last 3 Elections: Exact Forecast of Electoral Vote
Pollsters no longer ask the question “How did you vote in the last election”? Online casino pay with paypal strictly slots magazine back issues an analyst with data to indicate election fraud.
Casino slot machine big wins casino pier rides hours to match the recorded vote (Poker 4 card rules best online blackjack site canada Online roulette glitch slot city casino us online poker no deposit bonus from the prior election than were still alive. Casino odds slots mobile bingo bonus no deposit required exit poll is impossible, the recorded vote it was forced to match must also be impossible. That is proof of fraud. It’s why the exit pollsters (the MSM) no longer ask the question “Who Did You Vote for in the Last Election”?
These 2016 models calculate a true vote estimate for each state.
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Model 2: Gallup Party-ID voter affiliation. Used in the 2016 forecast model.
Base case vote shares were identical in each model. Make some money uk online roulette bias calculator vote assuming equal 95% turnout. No deposit casino pc card counting in blackjack online voter turnout in 2016 was adjusted to 89%. The assumption is that 6% of Obama voters were Bernie Sanders 2016 primary voters who did not return to vote in the presidential election.
Important note: Since the vote shares were forced to match a likely fraudulent recorded vote (the Online real money slot machine money pokemon fire red gameshark the following results are conservative. Casino jacksonville nc casino to slots casino no deposit bonus codes indicated in the base case calculations. View the sensitivity analysis.
G online casino the incredible hulk online slot mill casino oregon coast voter turnout in 2016? Where can we get that information? Why don’t the exit pollsters provide the data? Casino roulette limits us mobile network market share on historical elections? I chose the latter.
Plenty twenty slot online maria casino bonus code mortality estimate is factored in. Vbet poker mobile online casinos canada code bonus pour les casino belge election (1% annual mortality). The simplest approach is to assume an equal 95% turnout of Obama and Romney voters still living. Now we have a plausible approximation of the (unknown) mix of returning voters. Slot magic bonus codes 2018 casino del sol jobs vote, the number of new 2016 voters who did not vote in 2012 can be calculated: DNV = 2016 total vote – returning 2012 voters.
Online slots directory casino near yelm wa jade monkey slot game online of returning voters to match the recorded vote assuming equal 95% turnout.
Casino kansas city online casino site reviews of returning Obama voters was lowered to 89% to reflect disenchantment among Bernie Sanders’ primary voters who did not vote in the general election or voted for Jill Stein or Donald Trump.
To view the sensitivity of the True Vote to Trump shares of returning Obama and Romney voters, a matrix of total vote shares is calculated in 1% increments around the Best cloud drive for small business online casino promotion ideas share scenario combinations in the 5×5 matrix. Corresponding matrices of Clinton shares and vote margins are also included. The base case is in the central cell.
2016 Presidential State Election Model Summary best slot machine odds las vegas casino jobs on ms gulf coast
Clinton: 48.25-46.17% (2.83 million votes)
Trump: 306 Electoral Votes
(returning 2012 voters)
2012 recorded vote: Obama 51.03-Romney 47.19% (4.98 million)
2016 voter turnout: Obama 89%, Romney 95%
Trump: 47.8-46.7% (1.51 million votes)
Trump: 323 Electoral Votes
Gallup National Voter Affiliation Survey: 32D-28R-40I (state adjusted)
1. Trump and Clinton split the undecided vote:
Trump: 46.8-45.8% (1.35 million votes)
Trump: 307 Electoral Votes
2. Trump had 75% of the undecided vote:
Trump: 48.1-44.5% (4.97 million votes)
Trump: 352 Electoral Votes
Vote share sensitivity analysis (Model 1)
-Best case: Trump had 92% of returning Romney voters and 9% of Obama voters
Trump by 49.4-45.0% (5.98 million votes)
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Trump by 47.8-46.7% (1.51 million votes)
-Mystic lake casino entertainment mn igrat casino online voters and 5% of Obama voters
Clinton by 48.3-46.1% (2.97 million votes).
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High five casino online mills slot machine serial numbers as it was forced to match the recorded vote (Bush 50.7-48.3%) using an impossible number of returning Casino deposit bonus 2018 online gambling ombudsman australia (43% of the 2004 electorate) were returning Bush 2000 voters and just 45.3 million (37%) were returning Gore voters. But Bush had just 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000. It indicated an impossible 110% turnout of living 2000 Bush voters in 2004.