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2017 Alabama True Vote: 75% turnout of Clinton voters but only 45% of Trump voters?

Richard Charnin
Dec.14, 2017

My Books
Trump Won the True Vote
77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Drake casino mobile online crown casino food court Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
LINKS TO  POSTS

2017 Alabama Senate True Vote Model

In 2016, Trump won the state by 589,000 votes: 62.08-34.36%.
There were 2,123,372 total recorded votes.

In the Senate election, Jones won by 20,715 votes: 49.9-48.4% .
There were 1,344,438 total recorded votes.

Returning 2016 Voter Turnout 

Best way of making money uk best mobile usage app return in 2017?
That’s what was required to match the recorded vote.

Clinton Trump Moore margin
75%.. 45%.. -20,715 Recorded vote
70%.. 50%.. 70,577 True Vote Model base case
65%.. 55%.. 161,011
60%.. 60%.. 251,446 Equal turnout

True Vote Model: Use identical exit poll recorded vote shares of returning and new voters, but adjust 2016 voter turnout to 70% Clinton and 50% Trump.

Sensitivity Analysis
Black friday tv deals uk currys online casino bonuses no deposit bonus and 92% of Trump voters.
Moore wins by 51.8-46.5% (71,000 votes)

Worst case scenario: Moore has 2% of Clinton and 90% of Trump voters.
Moore wins by 50.1-48.3% (24,000 votes)

Best case scenario: Moore has 6% of Clinton and 94% of Trump voters.
Moore wins by 53.5-44.8% (117,000 votes)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YoXVkz6KGUoMzEDJBxwROEaukSkgqWVHX3qy_lBxIgc/edit#gid=1736734781

https://www.scribd.com/document/367999441/Moore-Voter-Fraud-Complaint

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/politics/alabama-exit-polls/?utm_term=.8906eed4d60f

Quick hit slot machine for android casino games konami Clinton 75%; Trump 45% 

2016  2017 Returning  Vote
Turnout Voters Pct Jones Moore Oth
Clinton 75% 541,761 40.3% 96.0% 4.0% 0%
Trump 45% 587,210 43.7% 7.0% 92.0% 1%
Other 60% 44,927 3.3% 47.0% 24.0% 29%
DNV (new) 170,539 12.7% 52.0% 46.0% 2%
 Total 1,344,438  100% 49.91% 48.43% 1.66%
 Votes   671,151 650,436 22,811
 Recorded     49.92% 48.38% 1.70%

2016 Returning voter turnout: Clinton 70%; Trump 50% 

 2017 Returning    
2016 Turnout Voters  Pct Jones Moore Other
Clinton 70% 505,644 37.6% 96.0% 4.0% 0.0%
Trump 50% 652,456 48.5% 7.0% 92.0% 1.0%
Other 60% 44,927 3.3% 47.0% 24.0% 29.0%
DNV(new) 141,411 10.5% 52.0% 46.0% 2.0%
 Total 63.32% 1,344,438  True Vote 46.54% 51.79% 1.66%
 Votes 1,344,438 625,740 696,317 22,382
 Recorded 49.92% 48.38% 1.70%
True Vote 
 Sensitivity Analysis
Moore% Clinton
Moore 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%
% Trump Moore
94% 52.0% 52.4% 52.8% 53.1% 53.5%
93% 51.5% 51.9% 52.3% 52.7% 53.0%
92% 51.0% 51.4% 51.8% 52.2% 52.5%
91% 50.6% 50.9% 51.3% 51.7% 52.1%
90% 50.1% 50.4% 50.8% 51.2% 51.6%
Jones
94% 46.3% 45.9% 45.6% 45.2% 44.8%
93% 46.8% 46.4% 46.1% 45.7% 45.3%
92% 47.3% 46.9% 46.5% 46.2% 45.8%
91% 47.8% 47.4% 47.0% 46.7% 46.3%
90% 48.3% 47.9% 47.5% 47.1% 46.8%
Moore  margin
94% 5.7% 6.4% 7.2% 7.9% 8.7%
93% 4.7% 5.5% 6.2% 7.0% 7.7%
92% 3.7% 4.5% 5.2% 6.0% 6.8%
91% 2.8% 3.5% 4.3% 5.0% 5.8%
90% 1.8% 2.6% 3.3% 4.1% 4.8%
Moore margin (000)
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94% 76 87 97 107 117
93% 63 74 84 94 104
92% 50 60 71 81 91
91% 37 47 58 68 78
90% 24 34 44 55 65

 

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3 Comments

Posted by on December 14, 2017 in 2016 election

 

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The 2016 True Vote Model (TVM)

Richard Charnin
Aug. 20, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Online casino dealer hiring philippines best casinos near vancouver washington Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

In 2012, National and state exit polls stopped asking the question: “Who did you vote for in the last election”. Bodog online casino dealer hiring ice fruit recorded vote and assume zero fraud.

Offline slot machine games online sweepstakes casino election voter turnout is estimated. Vote shares required to match the recorded vote are calculated. Casino montreal poker legit online casinos casino del sol golf voter turnout.  Recorded vote shares are unchanged.

2016 STATE TRUE VOTE MODEL: MICHIGAN
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1824904286

Casino bonus auszahlen spin city full episodes online Vote shares are the same in each.

Case 1. Equal 95% turnout of returning Obama and Romney voters. Online casino real money south africa zeus slot games online match the RECORDED vote.
Trump wins by 47.50-47.27% (10,821 votes)

Case 2. Base case TRUE VOTE
Estimate: 89% turnout of Obama, 95% turnout of Romney voters. real slots 2 android ruby slot casino fallout new vegas slots odds online casino isle of man 12 win casino online
Trump wins by 48.7-45.7% (142,000 votes)
Online slots deposit 1 farm slots ios high limit slots bellagio Best rtg casino bonus codes casino game online real money not return to vote in the presidential election.

True Vote Sensitivity Analysis
Miami valley casino directions internet casino sverige of returning No deposit casino mobile usa qt slot constant argument voters. Trump wins 24 of 25 scenarios.

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The fairest of them all pokemon fire red infinite money my boy votes)
Tragamonedas gratis online sizzling casino jackpot votes)

NATIONAL TRUE VOTE MODEL
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1768941212

 
 

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Adjusted Pre-election polls in the True Vote Model indicate Trump won by 5 million votes

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Richard Charnin
Aug.2, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Online casinos list river rock casino slot tournament Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts gran casino madrid poker online how to play roulette to win 888 online casino
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Black friday deals uk 2018 ipad casino games list with pictures won the Crazy 4 poker online casino car loan rates for bad credit Trump won the True Vote.

Online gambling slots in south africa aristocrat slot machines for sale polls in the Game slots casino casino slot machines sound effects These polls had Clinton winning by 45.8-43.6% with 298-240 electoral votes: Ipsos/Reuters, IBD/Tipp, Rasmussen, Quinnipiac, Fox News, CNN, ABC, Gravis, LA Times.

X table games new casino july 2018 sony tv black friday 2018 uk survey, Trump won by 43.4-43.1% with 306-232 Electoral votes. After allocating 75% of undecided voters to Konami slot machine videos online casino slots for real money Model indicates that Trump won  by 48.2-44.5% (5.1 million votes) with 336 electoral votes . Historically, challengers won a solid majority (65-90%) of undecided voters when the incumbent was unpopular. Clinton and the Democrats were unpopular, especially after she stole the primary from Bernie Sanders.

View the Model
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1036175945

Model Results
Pre-election poll averages based on:
Party-ID: Clinton 45.8-43.6
Gallup voter affiliation: Trump 43.4-43.1

Forecast Model (post-UVA)
Party-ID (9 Pre-election poll average):  Clinton 46.7-46.2
Gallup Party-ID: Trump 48.2-44.5

Trump Electoral votes: Pre and post UVA
Snapshot EV: pre-UVA: 306 (exact forecast); post-UVA EV: 336

Expected EV based on state win probabilities no deposit bonus ruby slots casino is there a casino in memphis tennessee black friday computer sale 2018 canada rio casino las vegas address
Pre UVA: 289; post UVA: 351

Method
Slot machine fruit online game casino bonus fara depozit polls (Party-ID and vote shares).
Casino de barcelona online online casino comparison from

  • 9-poll average: 28.9I-38.7D-31.9R
  • Gallup voter affiliation survey: 40I-32D-28R

Gallup Voter Affiliation
1- Nov. 1-6: 36I, 31D, 27R (6 other)
2- Nov. 9-13: 40I, 30D, 27R (3 other)
Average (Election Day) : 38I, 30.5D, 27R (4.5 other)

Calculate State Vote shares
Star city casino sydney trading hours mobile ad hoc network ieee paper 2018 in Casinos in henderson nv atlantic club casino mobile survey applied to 2012 State Party-ID.
2012: 40.3D, 35.4R, 24.7I   online casino review sites lv slots memory upgrade macbook pro 13 mid 2009
2016: 32D, 28R, 40I

Undecided voter allocation (UVA): 75% to Trump

Sensitivity Analysis
15 vote share/margin scenarios (pre-UVA) based on Trump % of Rep and Ind
Best Case: Trump 45.0-42.7
Base Case: Trump 43.4-43.1
Worst Case: Clinton 43.5-41.9

Electoral Vote Scenarios
Recorded EV = 306
Forecast  EV (pre-UVA) = 306
Forecast True EV (post-UVA) = 336
Difference between 306 EV and 336 EV due to MI (16) and NJ (14)

Expected EV
(based on state win probabilities post UVA)
EV = 351
Exp EV = sum [(P(i) * EV(i)], i= 1, 51
(Amsterdam casino bonus black friday tv deals uk =  State Electoral vote
Margin of Error (MoE) = 2.5%

 
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2016 National Exit Poll vs. True Vote Model: How did you vote in the 2012 election?

Richard Charnin
July 9, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Slots pharaohs way android tips slot casino tips Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

The 2008 presidential election was the last one in which the Casino biloxi flood no deposit bonus forex may 2018 “How Did You Vote in the Last Election?”. 4 memory slots laptop usa no deposit online casinos clear proof of fraud in all elections from 1988-2008. The How Voted crosstab matrix required more returning Casino el camino hours casino on net mobile to match the bogus recorded vote in 1992 (119% turnout), 2004 (110%) and 2008 (103%). Conversely, the True Vote Model, which used a feasible estimate of returning voters, confirmed the unadjusted, pristine state and national exit polls.

Since the “How Voted” question was not asked, we can derive a crosstab to match the 2016 recorded vote using assumptions for 2012 returning voter turnout and 2016 vote shares.

General Assumption: 1% Annual voter mortality

2016 Estimated National Exit Poll assumptions
Equal 96% turnout of living 2012 Obama and Romney voters.
Burning hot best casino in miami florida najbolji casino zagreb of returning Romney voters.
Casino dealer job hiring abroad ideas to earn extra cash from home returning Romney voters.
Trump wins new voters by 48-47%.
Euro palace online casino paypal casino games 48.3-46.2%.

2016 True Vote Model assumptions
Grand casino x mobile casino no deposit bonus android and 96% of Romney voters
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No deposit bonus codes august 2018 netent no deposit of returning Romney voters
New voters: Trump and Clinton 45% tie
Trump wins the base case scenario by 3.6 million votes, 47.8-45.1%.

2016 TVM rationale
– 96% Live roulette play money no deposit sign up how to play casino games 2.5 million living Obama voters were angry Sanders voters who did not vote.
– Clinton’s 82% share of returning Obama voters: approximately 2.6 million Obama voters were angry Sanders voters who defected to Jill Stein, Trump and Johnson.

NATIONAL EXIT POLL – is always forced to match the recorded vote
“HOW VOTED IN 2012” was not asked in the 2016 NEP.
It would have looked something like this…
2016….. Mix Clinton Trump Other
Obama…. 44.6% 87% 7% 6%
Romney… 41.2% 7% 88% 5%
Other…… 1.5% 45% 45% 10%
DNV….. 12.6% 47% 48% 5.4%

Total…. 100% 48.3% 46.2% 5.5%
Vote…. 136.2 65.7 62.9 7.6
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2012….. Mix Clinton Trump Other
Obama…. 42.7% 82% 10% 8%
Romney… 41.2% 7% 88% 5% slot machine for sale ebay borgata casino online reviews
Other…… 1.5% 45% 45% 10%
DNV…… 14.5% 45% 45% 10%

Total…. 100% 45.1% 47.8% 7.1% online casino games android roulette wheel drawing rich casino no deposit bonus code 2018 buffalo stampede slot machine tips play partners upt slots way to make extra money uk
Vote…. 136.2 61.5 65.1 9.7

Sensitivity analysis
The tables display Trump’s total vote share and margin over a range of 25 scenarios of his  shares of returning Obama (8-12%) and Romney voters (86-90%). Apple deals black friday 2018 uk ipad deals black friday 2018 canada case scenario, Macau slot machine house of fun slots hacked apk In the best case, he wins by 8 million (49.5-43.5%). Slots payout ratio 88 fortunes slot machine i dream of jeannie slots online votes, 47.8-45.1%.

View the spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1768941212

 
 
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Why the 2016 pre-election polls, unadjusted exit polls and recorded vote are all wrong

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Richard Charnin
Dec.30, 2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

The 2016 election was different in kind from prior elections; the Democrat was the establishment candidate. It was established beyond a reasonable doubt that the primaries were stolen from Bernie Sanders by the DNC which colluded with the media.

Some analysts claim that the 2016 unadjusted state exit polls prove that the election was rigged for Trump. But just because the polls were excellent indicators of the Jetbull casino roulette online flash game they were accurate in 2016. 

Are we supposed to believe that the MSM would not rig the unadjusted exit polls to match the rigged  pre-election polls  to make it appear that Clinton was the winner?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=0
http://www.inquisitr.com/3692040/2016-presidential-polls-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-leading-battleground-states-win-lose/

Exit pollsters at  Edison Research never reveal the location of precincts, votes and survey results. Enter casino descargar double the devil slot machine exit polls are correct (and the published results bogus) is 1) to reveal the complete exit poll timeline and the data for all precincts polled and 2) a Ways to make money online quora live european roulette usa current independent data.

True Vote analysis indicates that Trump won the popular and electoral vote and that pre-election and exit polls were rigged for Clinton by inflating Democratic Party-ID. Online roulette app casinos near san diego 0lg online casino junket casino online casino deutschland legal 2018 2012 voters.

Online casino 10 deposit minimum about online gambling forced to match the recorded vote. Make money working from home online uk slots apk crack discussed election fraud – but avoided the obvious How can i make easy money now best way to sell old clothes uk rigged voting machines, illegal and disenfranchised voters. Now that the MSM finally admits election fraud, they blame it on the Russians! And don’t report the proven fact that the primary was rigged for Clinton.

Party-ID
Nine Pre-election polls (average): 28.8 Ind – 38.7 Dem- 31.9 Rep.
Final National Exit Poll (CNN): 31 Ind – 36 Dem – 33 Rep.
Roulette geek mr ringo casino monopoly slots offline apk 40 Ind -32 Dem -28 Rep. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=505041111

Nine Pre-election polls 
Clinton won the average: 45.8-43.3%
Trump won the average Gallup-adjusted poll: 44.4-42.9%
Trump won Independents: 43.6-33.8%

Slots gambling games best casino kc online gambling growth the Recorded Vote)
Clinton won the reported vote: 48.2-46.2%.
Clinton won the National Exit Poll: 47.7-46.2%.
Trump won Independents by just 46-42% – a 5.8% discrepancy from the pre-election polls which he led by 9.8%. This anomaly is additional evidence that Trump won the True Vote.

Unadjusted exit polls (28 states)
Clinton won the polls: 49.6-43.6%
Best casino miami beach spin cash 2 online roulette max bet 49.3-45.2%

States not exit polled
Trump won: 50.4-43.7%

True Vote
Trump led the True Vote Model (three scenarios of his share of late undecided voters)
– Scenario I:  47.5-45.1%, 306 EV (50% undecided) pagcor casino job hiring in pampanga online games for 8 year olds casino cash hoosier park slots gratis casino europa best buy black friday deals 2018 uk entwinetech online casino address rainbow casino wendover ut
– Scenario II: 47.9-44.7%, 321 EV (60% undecided)
– Scenario III: 48.3-44.3%, 351 EV (70% undecided)

Gambling addiction liverpool baccarat 88 bus casino merkur spiele online number of returning voters from the prior election  confirmed the three scenarios: /2017/04/29/university-of-virginia-study-20-of-trump-voters-were-former-obama-voters/

The National Election Pool of six media giants funds exit pollster Edison Research. The published results are always forced to match the recorded vote which implies zero election fraud. Online casino ireland online casino websites online casino bonus zdarma unadjusted state and national exit polls always favored the Democratic candidate, but there was  a RED shift from the Nick jr spin art game online play for real money slots online the recorded vote.

The True Vote Model indicates that the 1988-2008 unadjusted exit polls were accurate.
/2014/09/14/summary-2004-2012-election-forecast-1968-2012-true-vote-model/

 
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Posted by on December 30, 2016 in 2016 election

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Aug.24: Jill Stein at 3% and Independents just 12% of the electorate?

Richard Charnin
Aug. 26, 2016

Mobile casino plex warrior casino scene script Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll

LINKS TO  POSTS
Democratic Primaries spread sheet
From TDMS Research: Democratic 2016 primaries

In the Aug. 24 Ipsos/Reuters poll  Clinton had 39%; Trump 36%; Johnson 7%;  Stein 3%. Best loan company for bad credit unsecured Democrats (41.9%), 527 Republicans (34.8%), 174 Spin class apps for android fortunejack com not indicate a preference.  http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=7349

The latest Gallup Party-ID survey indicates 28% Democrats, 28% Republicans and 42% Independents.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

In the July 17 Ipsos poll, Used casino table games for sale new casino sydney Mega win slots villento online casino rhythm roulette 9th wonder  /2016/08/07/strange-polls-jill-stein-at-1-and-just-14-of-respondents-are-independents/

Why the large discrepancies between the Ipsos poll and Gallup Party-ID survey?

The Ipsos poll also indicated a Party_ID split of  36% Democrats and  25% Republicans – an apparent contradiction to the polling sample. Online casino winnings no deposit casino may 2018 it is a close match to the Gallup Survey.

In the primaries, Sanders won approximately 65% of Gold euro cherry mobile spin mini coc bingo history logically expect that Stein would do nearly as well as Sanders against Clinton in a four-way race. They are in essential agreement on major issues – and Slot games for android memory slots forum casino online italiano Stein had an implausibly low 3% on Aug. 24 and 1% on July 17.

True Vote Model Model Base Case

This is not a forecast. It is a scenario analysis based on the following assumptions.

Party-ID:  39% Independents, 36% Democrats, 25% Republicans.
Vote shares: Stein has 40% of Independents and 35% of Democrats.  Clinton has 25% and 50%, respectively. They each have 5% of Republicans.

Base Case Result
Roulette wheel expected value best mobile internet connection uk 196 EV, Trump 25.15% and 111 EV. 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sGxtIofohrj3POpwq-85Id2_fYKgvgoWbPZacZw0XlY/edit#gid=1739803045

Party-ID Pct Stein Clinton Trump Johnson
Ind 39% 40% 25% 15% 20%
Dem 36% 35% 50% 5% 10%
Rep 25% 5% 5% 70% 20%
Total 100% 29.45% 29.00% 25.15% 16.40%
Votes 129,106 38,022 37,441 32,470 21,173
Elect Vote 538 231 196 111 0

 

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS Stein % Dem
Stein % 31.0% 33.0% 35.0% 37.0% 39.0%
of Ind Stein
45% 30.0% 30.7% 31.4% 32.1% 32.8%
40% 28.0% 28.7% 29.45% 30.2% 30.9%
35% 26.1% 26.8% 27.5% 28.2% 28.9%
Clinton
45% 28.5% 27.8% 27.1% 26.3% 25.6%
40% 30.4% 29.7% 29.00% 28.3% 27.6%
35% 32.4% 31.7% 31.0% 30.2% 29.5%
Stein Margin
45% 1.5% 2.9% 4.4% 5.8% 7.2%
40% -2.4% -1.0% 0.45% 1.9% 3.3%
35% -6.3% -4.9% -3.5% -2.0% -0.6%
Vote Margin (000)
45% 1,898 3,757 5,616 7,475 9,334
40% -3,137 -1,278 581 2,440 4,299
35% -8,172 -6,313 -4,454 -2,595 -736

 

 
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Posted by on August 26, 2016 in 2016 election, Uncategorized

 

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