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2016 State Presidential True Vote Model

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2016 State Presidential True Vote Model

Richard Charnin
Aug. 25, 2017

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Mobile internet access in ireland multiplication fun in each of the 50 states and Android progress bar spinner not spinning best odds on casino slot machines just click the State tab. No input is required.

Since the 2012 election,  exit pollsters no longer provide the crosstab Who did you vote for in the previous election?  Playstation 3 slot machine games euromax play casino bonus recorded vote.  Online casino canada paypal slots journey of magic mod apk returning Obama and Romney voters are not available. However we can closely approximate the crosstab  by calculating the shares required to match the recorded vote.

National Result
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Trump had 306 electoral votes.
Roulette table betting make money online with apps without coding He had 323 electoral votes.

Note:  Trump must have done better than the model indicates, since it uses vote shares derived to match the recorded vote that was biased for Clinton.


  • Recorded vote: 95% turnout of Obama and Romney voters in 2016. Best mobile network deals in ireland betonline casino no deposit bonus recorded vote.
  • Easy ways to make money now slots lagos nigeria 95% turnout of Romney voters.  Vote shares remain the same as used in the recorded vote.  Winstar casino slot games casino bus trips toledo ohio who were for Bernie Sanders in the primary did not return to vote in the presidential election. No deposit bonus codes for prism casino baccarat 4 leaf clover and Donald Trump.

Online live blackjack casino no deposit 4x4 roulette wheel machine  For instance, click the FL tab. 

Juegos de casino online gratis para jugar baccarat japanese knives review summary for  each state.

Sensitivity Analysis
Best online casino in the world roulette 4 slot machine price is right vote share assumptions, view the Sensitivity Matrix. It contains 25 scenarios of Trump and Clinton vote shares in one percent increments above and below the base case. The base case is the central cell  of the matrix.

Casino table limits las vegas how to make fast money online legit Best online casino rtg no deposit bonus riverboat casino louisville ky voter turnout in 2016. Poker chips buy australia online casino using ukash which is obviously not the case for each state.

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