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Sensitivity of 2016 Electoral and Popular Vote to Registered Voter Turnout

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Sensitivity of 2016 Electoral and Popular Vote to Registered Voter Turnout

Richard Charnin
Oct.4, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Online casino real money nj online slots real money bonus Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll best asian online casino blackjack online real money treasure island casino rewards online blackjack guide best android mobile under rs 20000 telstra mobile use in new zealand
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Eight voter turnout scenarios:
Trump wins the base case (86% Dem, 91% Rep) by 328-210 EV and 1.15 million votes.

Trump needs 89% Dem and 88% Rep turnout to match his 306 EV. online casino deposit goldbet casino bonus code
Nouveau jeux casino bonus sans depot fruit machine for sale essex Rep turnout to tie Trump at 269 EV.
Clinton needs 93% Dem, 87% Rep turnout to win by 298-240 EV and 3.12 million.
Clinton needs 92.5% Dem, 84.5% Rep turnout to match her 2.8 million margin.

Live online blackjack casino legal ways to make money fast uk the calculations are based on state exit poll vote shares forced to match the recorded vote.

Sensitivity analysis (assume constant 87% Independent voter turnout)

Turnout Trump Votes (000) Vote Shares
Dem Rep EV Trump Clinton Margin Trump Clinton
0.85 0.92 332 64,647 62,885 1,762 47.5 46.2
0.86 0.91 328 64,347 63,195 1,152 47.2 46.4
0.87 0.90 321 64,047 63,505 542 47.0 46.6
0.88 0.89 315 63,747 63,815 -68 46.8 46.9
0.89 0.88 305 63,447 64,125 -678 46.6 47.1
0.90 0.87 289 63,147 64,435 -1,288 46.4 47.3
0.91 0.86 289 62,847 64,745 -1,899 46.1 47.5
0.92 0.85 269 62,546 65,055 -2,509 45.9 47.8
0.93 0.84 240 62,246 65,365 -3,119 45.7 48.0
0.94 0.83 240 61,946 65,675 -3,729 45.5 48.2

Given these facts:
– Census 2016 registered voter turnout of 87%.
– Gallup national voter affiliation (Party-ID) on Election Day:
(41% Independents, 31% Democrats and 28% Republicans) how to play video slots machines soaring eagle casino monster truck show slot bonanza tips and tricks
– 28 exit poll states: vote shares forced to match recorded vote.
– 23 non-exit poll states recorded vote shares .

Assumptions: Bernie Sanders defectors…
– 5% of registered Democrats stayed home
– 4% voted for Jill Stein and 1% for Trump.
Then….
1. Adjusted Voter Turnout: 78.6% Dem, 91.6% Rep, 91.6% Ind
2. Adjusted Gallup Party-ID: 29.5% Dem, 29.1% Rep, 41.4% Ind
3. Lasseters casino online no deposit casino bonus wild vegas 28 exit polled states
4. Trump wins by 48.13-45.33% (3.81 million votes) with 332-206 EV

Since the 28 state exit polls were forced to match the recorded vote and likely inflated for Online casino new uk argosy casino kansas city new years eve Pokemon leaf green slots tips online slots jackpot odds 

…………..Clinton Trump online casino blackjack minimum bet gambling addiction toronto
28 states 45.67% 47.67% Exit polls (Gallup/NEP-adjusted)
Votes…… 50,664 52,776

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23 states 43.71% 50.40% Not exit polled. Assume recorded vote.
Votes…… 11,079 12,777
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51 states 45.33% 48.13% (conservative- Trump may have done better)
Votes…… 61,744 65,554

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=857963642

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Posted by on October 4, 2017 in 2016 election

 

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