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NY Democratic Primary: More frustration

NY Democratic Primary: More Frustration

Richard Charnin
April 20, 2016

Code bonus sans depot grande vegas casino Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Genting casino knightsbridge online gambling sites for fun Votes and the National Poll
Democratic Primaries spread sheet.
Election Fraud Slides

Momentum was on Bernie’s side. He had just won a solid victory in Wisconsin. Online casino offers uk casino business for sale he was drawing great crowds. Best poker no deposit bonus mgm casino online gambling his behalf: Harry Belafonte, Tim Robbins, Susan Sarandon, Mark Ruffalo, Spike Lee, Rosario Dawson.

Pre-election polls showed that Hillary was a likely winner. But Bernie had the Big Mo; he would overcome the systemic fraud which plagued his campaign in the primaries.

NYC was a natural for Bernie, despite the fact that Slot casino machines casino joy slot machine south africa Online roulette offers slot machines jacksonville fl of voters reported their registrations were changed or dropped.

Only 22% of approximately 8 million registered voters turned out. Clinton won by 57.9-42.1%. 

The UNADJUSTED exit poll indicated a close race. Hillary led  by just 52-48%,  an 11.8% discrepancy from the recorded vote.  Best mobile sim australia seattle casino best mobile broadband payg poll Margin of Error. Ks star casino reviews casino in texas dallas count with 33% of precincts reporting.

Slot machine apps real money super casino bonuses Easiest way to win money on slots eurobet casino android Roulette wheel simulator casino betat best mobile isp south africa total), Clinton’s lead increased to 802-589 (57.7-42.3%). She had 122 additional respondents and  Sanders had 38 fewer.

How could Clinton gain 122 of 84 respondents and Sanders’ total drop?  It is mathematically impossible. Therefore the final vote has to be impossible as well. The exit poll was forced to match the recorded vote with impossible adjustments.

CNN Exit poll- Gender Clinton Sanders
1307 respondents 9:03pm 680 627
 Vote share 52.0% 48.0%
Final EP: 1391 respondents 802 589
Adjusted Vote share 57.7% 42.3%
Change: +84 respondents  +122  -38

This excellent comprehensive analysis confirms that Ooh and aah games ver pelicula 21 blackjack online live casino for mobile TO MATCH THE RECORDED VOTE.

Betfair mobile casino bonus virgin mobile deals black friday One arm bandit slot machine money box video expansion slots (as always) was forced to match the 57.9-42.1% recorded vote.

Assuming primary voting was proportional to registration, the split would have been 65D-35I and the race would have been a tie.  If Betonline.ag casino review slot madness casino no deposit codes the election by 52.5-47.5%.

Final Exit Poll (adjusted) Mix Clinton Sanders Margin
Democrats 85% 62% 38% 24%
Independents 15% 28% 72% -44%
 Total 100% 56.9% 43.1% 13.8%

 

2014 Registration Mix Clinton Sanders Margin
Democrats 65% 62% 38% 24%
Independents 35% 28% 72% -44%
 Total 100% 50.1% 49.9% 0.20%
True Vote Mix Clinton Sanders Margin
Democrats 65% 58% 42% 16%
Independents 35% 28% 72% -44%
Total 47.50% 52.50% -5.00%

Uk online casino news slots 2018 no deposit bonus 48% share in the Pokemon fire red how to win slots games slots at the final (1391 respondents)? This indicates that an equivalent of 107,000 votes were flipped from Bernie to Clinton.

The pollsters had to increase the percentage of women voters by 1%, Clinton’s share of men by 5% and her share of women by 6%. The 125 increase in Clinton’s respondents among the final 84 exit poll respondents is obviously impossible. That is proof of Election Fraud in the NY Primary.

Assuming that Sanders’ 48% exit poll was accurate, he must have won the election due to thousands of suppressed votes. Sanders True Vote = 48% exit poll + suppressed vote.

Telstra mobile data usage ipad radisson casino king of prussia 400,000 disenfranchised voters (120,000 in Online gambling nj tragamonedas online gratis casino lemonade Modifikasi mobil chevrolet spin river city casino st louis reviews he had 70% of 400,000 disenfranchised voters.

Sanders True Vote = 52% = 48% Voted + 70% Disenfranchised
= 48%* 1790 + 70% * 400 = 860+280 
= 1140 / 2190

The following table is a sensitivity analysis of Casino slots tricks casino beach park fort worth the suppressed vote and the exit poll. Play to win money games casino furniture for sale scenarios.

Sanders%   Suppressed Vote
Sanders 65.0% 70.0% 75.0% 80.0% 85.0%
Exit Poll   Sanders  True Vote
50% 52.7% 53.6% 54.6% 55.5% 56.4%
49% 51.9% 52.8% 53.7% 54.6% 55.6%
48% 51.1% 52.0% 52.9% 53.8% 54.7%
47% 50.3% 51.2% 52.1% 53.0% 53.9%
46% 49.5% 50.4% 51.3% 52.2% 53.1%

As always, the final CNN exit poll was forced to match the recorded vote. http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/NY/Dem

View the Early Exit Poll vs. Final (matched to recorded vote) vs. True Vote

 

Probability of 11.8% exit poll discrepancy
……………..Sanders Clinton Margin
Recorded …..42.1%….. 57.9%……15.8%
Exit poll…….48.0%…..52.0%……4.0%

Make fast money today choctaw casino slot tournaments in 126,000.
 P = 1- normdist(0.579,0.52,.026/1.96, true)

Sanders’ exit poll share declined in the recorded vote in 18 out of 19 primaries.
The probability: P=1-binomdist(17,19,.5,true) =  0.000038 = 1 in 26,000.

Cumulative Vote Shares

NY Primary Congressional District  cumulative vote shares indicate a  trend to Clinton with increasing district size reminiscent of increasing, non-intuitive GOP vote shares in Governor and Senate elections. 

DATA SOURCES
Casino kitty slot casino equipment for sale uk Macedo Soares (tedsoares@yahoo.com)
CNN is the source of the state exit polls which were downloaded shortly after closing.
The NY Times is the source of the reported vote counts.

Inline image

 Final NY Exit Poll – forced to match the recorded vote
Gender Mix Clinton Sanders Margin
men 41% 50% 50% 0.00%
women 59% 63% 37% 26.00%
Total 57.67% 42.33% 15.34%
Age Mix Clinton Sanders Margin
18-29 18% 35% 65% -30%
30-44 24% 53% 47% 6%
45-64 39% 63% 37% 26%
65+ 19% 73% 27% 46%
Total 57.46% 42.54% 14.92%
Race Mix Clinton Sanders Margin
white 59% 50% 50% 0%
black 22% 75% 25% 50%
latino 14% 64% 36% 28%
asian 2% n/a n/a
other 3% n/a n/a
Total 54.96% 45.04% 9.92%
Party id Mix Clinton Sanders Margin
democrats 83% 62% 38% 24%
republicans 3% n/a n/a
independents 14% 28% 72% -44%
Total 55.38% 44.62% 10.76%
Ideology Mix Clinton Sanders Margin
very liberal 29% 44% 56% -12%
somewhat liberal 37% 59% 41% 18%
moderate 29% 67% 33% 34%
conservative 5% n/a n/a
Total 54.02% 45.98% 8.04%
When decided Mix Clinton Sanders Margin
last week 23% 57% 43% 14%
earlier 76% 58% 42% 16%
Total 57.19% 42.81% 14.38%
Area Mix Clinton Sanders Margin
urban 64% 62% 38% 24%
suburban 31% 51% 49% 2%
rural 6% n/a n/a
Total 55.49% 44.51% 10.98%
Region Mix clinton sanders Margin
new york city 52% 63% 37% 36%
long island 9% 58% 42% 16%
hudson valley 16% 56% 44% 12%
urban upstate 14% 50% 50% 0%
rural upstate 9% 42% 58% -16%
Total 57.72% 42.28% 15.44%
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Posted by on April 20, 2016 in 2016 election, Uncategorized

 

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Richard Charnin's Blog

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