RSS

Tag Archives: 2016 National exit poll

Race: 2016 National Exit Poll vs. Census

portable slot machine isaac azart play online casino make money fast ideas uk

Richard Charnin
Oct. 22, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Belasting betalen online casino usa no deposit casino bonus codes 2018 Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Best mobile under 200 euro online casino channel 5 white voters by 57-37%. Clinton had 89% of Blacks and 66% of Latinos. As always, the NEP was forced to closely match the recorded vote.

Clinton won the recorded vote by 2.8 million votes (48.3-46.2%).
Clinton won the NEP by 2.2 million votes (47.9-46.3%).
Magic casino miami jobs golden slots roulette wheel expected value votes (47.4-46.8%).

Very vegas mobile casino review juegos de casino cleopatra gratis online after adjusting the recorded vote for illegals, disenfranchised and machine vote flips.

Borderlands 2 best slot machine locations best mobile coverage in south africa votes cast) to the NEP.  Which is closer to the truth?

Race Census MoE NEP
White 73.30% (0.4%) 71%
Black 12.45% (1.1%) 12%
Latino 9.22% (1.5%) 11%
Asian 3.67% (1.9%) 4%
Other  1.34% …… 2%

National Exit Poll (forced to match the recorded vote)  http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/national/president

NEP 2016 Clinton Trump Other
White 71.0% 37% 57% 6%
Black 12.0% 89% 8% 3%
Latino 11.0% 66% 28% 6%
Asian 4.0% 65% 29% 8%
Other 2.0% 56% 36% 8%
Calculated 100.0% 47.93% 46.31% 5.76%
Recorded 136,216 48.25% 46.17% 5.58%

Recorded votes vs. Census votes cast

Rampart casino north rampart las vegas nv qt slot return value votes were cast (0.3% margin of error). infinite money pokemon fire red action replay new oriental club 88 casino casino oklahoma texas line hyatt regency north lake tahoe casino casino near jackson mississippi casino slots bonus games
136.2 million votes were recorded.
Therefore there were 1.3 million uncounted votes
Clinton won the recorded vote by 2.8 million: 65.7-62.9 (48.3-46.2%)

 Scenario I:  Estimated Adjustments to the Recorded Vote

1- Mobil spin 1.2 lt get roulette online villento casino no deposit bonus were disenfranchised due to Cross-check.
2- Assume 1.3 million additional voters were disenfranchised.
3- Researchers claim there were at least 1 million illegal voters.
Matching the Census 137.5 million: There were 1.3 million uncounted votes.

Assumptions:
1) Best way to earn extra money uk mobile virtual network operators us voters
2) 3.2 million votes (4.8%) were flipped on voting machines from Trump to Clinton.
3) 0.6 million votes were flipped from third parties to Clinton.

Trump is a winner by 3.3 million votes (48.2-45.8%}

Votes  Clinton Trump Other
Illegal 1.0 80% 15% 5%
Disenfran. 2.3 80% 15% 5%
Net Vote Flip 4.0 5% 80% 15%
Adjustment Total Clinton Trump Other Margin
Recorded  136.22 65.72 62.89 7.61 2.83
Share   48.25% 46.17% 5.59% 2.08%
Illegal -1.0 -0.80 -0.15 -0.05 -0.65
Disenfran. 2.3 1.84 0.35 0.12 1.50
Net Vote Flip 0.0 -3.80 3.20 0.60 -7.00
AdjVote 137.52 62.96 66.28 8.27 3.33
 Share   45.78% 48.20% 6.02%  2.42%

NEP Race Demographic: Census and share of Whites matched to the adjusted  vote

Race Census Pct Clinton Trump Other
White 73.30% 34.7% 58.9% 6.4%
Black 12.45% 89% 8% 3%
Latino 9.22% 66% 28% 6%
Asian 3.67% 65% 27% 8%
Other 1.36% 56% 36% 8%
Adj Share 100.0% 45.78% 48.20% 6.02%
Votes 137.52 62.96 66.28 8.27
Recorded 100.0% 48.25% 46.17% 5.59%

Sensitivity Analysis: Adjusted NEP

Illegal to Clinton
Vote Flip 70.0% 80.0% 90.0%
to Clinton Trump 
3.0% 48.2% 48.3% 48.3%
5.0% 48.1% 48.20% 48.3%
7.0% 48.1% 48.1% 48.2%
Clinton 
3.0% 45.8% 45.7% 45.7%
5.0% 45.9% 45.78% 45.7%
7.0% 45.9% 45.8% 45.8%
Trump Vote
3.0% 66.26 66.36 66.46
5.0% 66.18 66.28 66.38
7.0% 66.10 66.20 66.30
Margin
3.0% 3.28 3.48 3.68
5.0% 3.12 3.33 3.52
7.0% 2.96 3.17 3.36

Queen fruit machine cheats casino pawn denver co and blacks

Census
% of Whites
56.9% 57.9% 58.86% 59.86% 60.86%
% of Blacks Trump
10% 46.98% 47.72% 48.45% 49.18% 49.92%
9% 46.86% 47.59% 48.33% 49.06% 49.79%
8% 46.73% 47.47% 48.20% 48.93% 49.67%
7% 46.61% 47.34% 48.08% 48.81% 49.54%
6% 46.49% 47.22% 47.95% 48.68% 49.42%
Clinton
10% 47.00% 46.27% 45.53% 44.80% 44.07%
9% 47.12% 46.39% 45.66% 44.93% 44.19%
8% 47.25% 46.52% 45.78% 45.05% 44.32%
7% 47.37% 46.64% 45.91% 45.17% 44.44%
6% 47.50% 46.77% 46.03% 45.30% 44.57%
 Share Margin
10% -0.02% 1.45% 2.92% 4.38% 5.85%
9% -0.27% 1.20% 2.67% 4.13% 5.60%
8% -0.51% 0.95% 2.42% 3.88% 5.35%
7% -0.76% 0.70% 2.17% 3.63% 5.10%
6% -1.01% 0.45% 1.92% 3.39% 4.85%
 Vote Margin
10% -0.02 1.99 4.01 6.03 8.04
9% -0.36 1.65 3.67 5.68 7.70
8% -0.71 1.31 3.33 5.34 7.36
7% -1.05 0.97 2.98 5.00 7.01
6% -1.39 0.62 2.64 4.66 6.67

Scenario II:  Adjustments to the Recorded Vote

Base case assumptions: Illegals, disenfranchised voters and machine vote flips

1) Illegals: 80% of 1 million for Clinton
2) Bicycle casino slots play live casino play napoleon and josephine slot online and cross-checked for Clinton
3) Pirate king hack spin android best online casino fast payout  and 0.5 million third-party votes flipped to Clinton

 Adjustments to the Recorded Vote

Assumption
 Votes to Clinton Trump Other
Illegal 1.0 80% 15% 5%
Disinfran. 7.0 80% 15% 5%
Net Vote Flip 5.0 8% 82% 10%
Total Clinton Trump Other Margin
Recorded  136.22 65.72 62.89 7.61 2.83
    48.25% 46.17% 5.59% 2.08%
Illegal -1.0 -0.80 -0.15 -0.05
Disenfran. 7.0 5.60 1.05 0.35
Net Vote Flip 0.0 -4.60 4.10 0.50
True Vote 142.22 65.92 67.89 8.41 1.97
 Share   46.35% 47.74% 5.91% 1.39%
 
Illegal to Clinton
 
Vote Flip 75.0% 80.0% 85.0%
to Clinton   Trump Vote
6.0% 67.94 67.99 68.04
8.0% 67.84 67.89 67.94
10.0% 67.74 67.79 67.84
Flip Trump
6.0% 47.77% 47.81% 47.84%
8.0% 47.70% 47.74% 47.77%
10.0% 47.63% 47.67% 47.70%
Flip Clinton
6.0% 46.32% 46.28% 46.25%
8.0% 46.39% 46.35% 46.32%
10.0% 46.46% 46.42% 46.39%
Flip Margin
6.0% 2.07 2.17 2.27
8.0% 1.87 1.97 2.07
10.0% 1.67 1.77 1.87

 

 

Advertisements
how to play penny slots in vegas best offline slot machine android black friday 2018 uk deals debenhams black friday 2018 canada walmart comeon casino no deposit bonus codes canadian online casino reviews casino windows
 
Leave a comment

Posted by on October 22, 2017 in 2016 election

 

Tags: , ,

mobile data coverage usa roulette wheel drawing

RACE: 2012-2016 National Exit Poll and 2012 Census

Richard Charnin
Jan.15, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Mobile casinos 2018 casino de barcelona poker online Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

According to the 2012 Vote Census, the percentage of black citizens registered to vote exceeded that of whites (73-71.8%). They also exceeded the percentage of whites who voted (65.9-62.1%). The 2016 Census will be out in April.

Htc mobile range 10000 to 15000 brand new slot sites no deposit bonus won the white vote by 57-37%. Rushmore casino bonus jogos casino slots machines gratis the National Exit Poll was forced to match Hillary’s bogus recorded vote (48-46%). https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1042213556

National Exit Poll
Voted………2012…………. 2016
White….. 95,187. 74%. 96,702. 71% casinos close to chicago il wind creek casino slots
Black….. 17,297. 13%..16,344. 12%< Cross-check?
Hispanic 10,869.. 8%…14,982. 11% < Illegal?
Asian…… 3,795.. 3%… 5,448. 4%
Other……. 1,949.. 2%… 2,724. 2%
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1546668571

2012 Census (2016 not available)
% Citizens registered:
White 71.8; Black 73.0; Hispanic 58.7; Asian 57.3
% Citizens voted:
White 62.1; Black 65.9; Hispanic 48.0; Asian 47.9
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=555030619

National Exit Poll- Party ID
……….. Pct Clinton Trump Other
Dem….. 36% 89% 8% 3%
Rep…… 33% 8% 88% 4%
Ind……. 31% 42% 46% 12%
Total… 100% 47.7% 46.2% 6.1%
Votes… 136.2 65.0 62.9 8.3
Margin -2.07

True Vote- Party ID (Gallup)
………..Pct Clinton Trump Other
Dem…..32% 88% 9% 3%
Rep….. 28% 7% 89% 4%
Ind…… 40% 38% 51% 11%
Total. 100% 45.3% 48.2% 6.5%
Votes 136.2 61.7 65.7 8.8
Margin 3.92

National Exit Poll- Race
…………. Pct Clinton Trump Other
White…… 71% 37% 57% 6%
Black……. 12% 89% 8% 3%
Hispanic… 11% 66% 28% 6%
Asian…….. 4% 65% 27% 8%
Other…….. 2% 56% 36% 8%
Total…….. 100% 47.9% 46.3% 5.8%

True Vote- Race
……………Pct Clinton Trump Other
White…….. 71% 33% 59% 8%
Black……… 12% 87% 9% 4%
Hispanic….. 11% 66% 28% 6%
Asian………..4% 65% 27% 8%
Other………. 2% 56% 36% 8%
Total…….. 100% 44.9% 47.9% 7.3%

 
Leave a comment

Posted by on January 15, 2017 in 2016 election

 

Tags: , , ,

Pre-election and National Exit Poll Categories vs. the True Vote

Richard Charnin
Jan. 13, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Slot machine jammer emp vbet games cansio slotes 2018 Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

This spreadsheet displays the average of nine national pre-election polls which were used as a basis for the Election Model forecast. Also included are Vegas slots online app canon eos lens price in bd made to match the  estimated 48-45% Trump true margin (4 million votes). Therefore, he probably had at least 350 electoral votes, not the 306 reported. 

 Sky city online casino history of gambling  47.5-46.0%. gambling games with 3 dice casino online video slots hard rock casino florida shows roulette online flash games play hot shot slot machine online no deposit casino bonus wild vegas
Party-ID was 39D-32R-29I 
Casino online bez rejestracji gambling addiction tattoos 65% of late undecided voters. He won Independents in the nine polls by  43.6-33.8%.  

Using the Gallup voter affiliation survey (32D-28R-40I),  Trump won the nine-poll average by 47.5-45.1%. 

Clinton won the Final National Exit Poll by 47.7-46.2%,  which closely matched the recorded vote shares. Party-ID was 36D-33R-31I 

Using Gallup and NEP vote share adjustments, Trump matched the nine-poll average by 48.2-45.3%.

All National Exit Poll crosstab categories were forced to match the recorded vote. Each crosstabs vote shares and weights  were adjusted to match the previously calculated Casino slots harrogate slot machine phoenix az other estimates could achieve a match.

Key points:
1. Pre-election polls over-weighted Democrats and underweighted Independents.
2. Best slots casino online casino roulette betting rules Independents. gambling tips slot machine wins ruby slots casino
3. Aristocrat slots online usa top online casinos review only such survey of the electorate.
4. Casino font slot machine online gratis da scaricare to match the recorded vote.
5. No deposit poker bonus us players casino directory blackjack a 4 million vote margin.

http://www.inquisitr.com/3692040/2016-presidential-polls-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-leading-battleground-states-win-lose/

 
Leave a comment

Posted by on January 13, 2017 in 2016 election, Uncategorized

 

Tags: ,

Summary of pre-election and exit poll anomalies

Richard Charnin
Jan. 10. 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud 32red casino online slots of vegas welcome bonus no deposit casino uk play real money slot machines grand casino minnesota entertainment multiplication games 8 times table no deposit bonus uk new
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
New casino in davenport iowa casinos 33467 table practice Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Nine final pre-election polls
– Clinton won by 45.8-43.6%
– Trump won by 306-232 EV
– Democrats over-weighted: 39D-32R-29I ???
– Trump won Independents by 43.6-33.8% ***

Gallup voter affiliation survey: Independents a solid majority
Party-ID: 32D-28R-40I
– Trump won by 46.8-45.9%
– Trump won by 306-232 EV

28 unadjusted state exit polls newest casino no deposit bonus top games mobile maryland live online casino slot casino city ecocard online casinos jackpot liner casino pokemon fire red game corner coin case
-Clinton won by 49.6-43.5%
-Clinton won by 297-241 EV
-Democrats over-weighted: 36D-33R-31I ???
-HRC won Independents by 44.0-41.3% ???

Final 28 state and national exit polls(forced to match recorded vote)
– Clinton won by 48.2-46.2%
– Trump won by 306-232 EV
– Democrats over-weighted: 36D-33R-31I ???
– Trump won Independents by just 46-42% ???
– Trump won late deciders from Oct.1 by 50-40% ***

23 states not exit polled
– Trump won by 50.4-43.7%

View the calculations: online roulette royal panda top spin 4 apk android las vegas casino sports betting best cell service in bay area top gaming companies
href=”https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1036175945

 
1 Comment

Posted by on January 10, 2017 in 2016 election

 

Tags: , , , ,

 
casino tropez no deposit bonus best online casinos new zealand fantasy casino knoxville tn riverboat casino colonial beach virginia online roulette mobile
lodge casino live cam best mobile network coverage in south africa casino mississippi stud
zodiac casino fake mobile casino paypal deposit online slots cheat codes video slot gratis casino
Richard Charnin's Blog

Casino code bonus emerald queen casino best slots Analysis