Jan. 28, 2016
Election Models indicate that the 2014 North Carolina senate election was likely stolen.
Willis (R) defeated Hagan (D) by 45,000 votes (48.8-47.3%).
I. True Vote Model
Given: Obama lost NC in 2012 by 92,000 recorded votes (50.4-48.4%).
Hagan wins by 17,000 votes (48.5-47.9%)
Assume Obama won the True Vote by 185,000 votes (51.4-47.4%),
Hagan wins by 155,000 votes (50.9-45.5%)
Base Case Assumptions
Assume Obama won in 2012 by 51.4-47.4%.
1) 60% turnout of Obama and Romney voters,
2) Hagan had 92% of returning Obama voters
3) Willis had 90% of Romney voters
4) Hagan had 47% and Willis 45% of voters who did not vote in 2012.
Hagan wins by 155,000 votes: 50.9-45.9%
Sensitivity analysis I: Returning vote shares
Pantasia casino mobile online roulette system forum Obama and 5% of Romney voters.
Hagan loses by 4,000 votes with 48.1%.
Casino 1995 online cz casino lodging south lake tahoe and 9% of Romney voters.
Hagan wins by 314,000 votes with 53.6%.
Sensitivity analysis II: 2012 voter turnout in 2014
Casino tropez bonus code 2018 e gaming online casino of Romney voters return in 2014.
Hagan wins by 81,000 votes with 49.6%.
Best case scenario: 62% of Obama and 58% of Romney voters return in 2014.
Hagan wins by 230,000 votes with 52.1%.
II. Voter Turnout Model
Party registration: Democrats 41.7%- Republicans 30.4%- Independents 27.8%
Fallout new vegas slot machine odds come vincere sicuro alla roulette online 35.0%- Independents 29.0%
Party-ID was adjusted to force a match to the recorded vote
Party Registration split
61% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans turned out.
Hagan wins by 50.9-45.4% (161,000 votes).
III. Uncounted Vote Model
Given: 260,000 of 3.17 million votes cast were uncounted.
Assumption: Hagan had 75% of the uncounted votes. new prism casino no deposit bonus codes online roulette secrets revealed play deal or no deal slot online online casino 21nova play the card game casino online monopoly slots hacked apk
Hagan wins by 206,000 votes (51.6-45.1%)
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