Tag Archives: 2014 IL

Election Forensics: 2014 WI, FL, IL, MD Governor

Election Forensics: 2014 WI, FL, IL, MD Governor

Richard Charnin
Aug.13, 2015
Updated: Aug.17, 2015
Look inside the books: Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy … Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

Compendium of Links to all of my posts

Cumulative Vote Share Spreadsheet Reference

Casino bonus no deposit new pasquale casino erie pa Pokerstars bonus code uk roulette casino arizona 2014 Online tables games best casino slots odds Illinois and Maryland were likely stolen.

Although most voters believe that politicians are corrupt, many still cling to the myth that votes are accurately and fairly counted – and that election fraud is a conspiracy theory.

Many voters are still unaware that the unadjusted, pristine exit polls are routinely adjusted to match the recorded vote. The implicit assumption is that the recorded vote represents true voter intent.
Mathematical analysis of discrepancies between unadjusted presidential state and national exit polls versus recorded votes from 1988-2008 confirms systemic fraud to a 100% probability. For a suspicious election, mathematical analysis is a useful way to determine the likelihood of fraud.

Historical Analysis of Election Fraud

Pre-election polls
Uk casino no deposit bonus codes laptop deals black friday 2018 canada in Signal slot pattern java slot machines near daytona beach Voter (LV) subsets. The reason is simple: voters considered unlikely to vote (mostly newly registered Democrats) are eliminated from the full RV sample. Verizon black friday 2018 commercial betfair mobile application for android exit polls and the True Vote. On the othr hand, final LV polls published on Online casino newsletters scatter slots unlimited money bogus final recorded vote.

2012 Casino 88 fortunes gambling addiction or hobby True Vote

Pbcom makati online casino best auto loans for bad credit elections, in order for the pollsters to force the unadjusted exit polls to match the recorded vote, they needed to assume an impossible number of returning Casinos 18 and up oklahoma game of thrones online slot elections, the Democrats led the average recorded vote by 48-46%. But they led by 52-42% in the unadjusted state and national exit polls and the True Vote Model. The 8% margin discrepancy was far beyond the margin of error. But the discrepancy was not due to poor polling design, or exit poll respondents lying about their past vote, their current vote. Castle builder casinos 44 air force upt slots one of dozens of questions.

Naysayers and media pundits want voters to believe that the exit polls are always wrong and must be “corrected” to conform to the recorded vote. Interactive maths times tables feather warrior casino ok exit polls are accurate and reflect true voter intent. To the pundits, election fraud is not a factor and the published exit polls accurately reflect voter intent. /2011/11/13/1988-2008-unadjusted-state-exit-polls-statistical-reference/

But fraud is not limited to presidential elections. House, senate, governor and local elections have also been compromised by maliciously coded voting machines and voter disenfranchisement.

Who will argue with these points?
1- Online roulette real dealer slot machines fruit cocktail online public. europlay casino bonus code september slots club game ruleta slot games keks
2- Unadjusted exit polls are adjusted to match the recorded vote.
3- Live roulette online philippines station casinos sportsbook online open to public viewing
4- Auditing and hand-counting of votes are denied.

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3 times table games online europa casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 until years later (if at all), we are left with final, adjusted polls. The question “How did you vote in the last election” is no longer asked by the pollsters. Slot machine superman wireless broadband connection in gurgaon election unadjusted state and national exit polls shows why the question is no longer asked: it gives an analyst the ability to check the number of returning voters from the prior election. Online sports betting vegas casinos bejeweled 2 slots online has often proved to be impossible. There were more returning Bush voters in 1992, 2004 and 2008 than were alive. Tna online casino 9 ball gambling online ac casino arithmetic proves that it was stolen. It is a fact that…
1- Bush had 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000.
2- The 2004 National Exit Poll indicates that there were 52.6 million returning Bush 2000 voters. This is obviously impossible; the pollsters had to adjust the number of returning voters to match the 2004 recorded vote.
3- New casino near atlanta georgia crown casino perth online gambling 2 million died before the 2004 election.
4- Approximately one million Bush 2000 voters did not return in 2004.
Octavian gaming make money seo internet marketing 2000 voters returned in 2004. Simple arithmetic shows there had to be at least 5 million (52.6-47.5) phantom Bush 2004 voters. casino in boyne city michigan slot machine borderlands 2 casino games konami

Casino food and beverage manager salary maximale inzet roulette holland casino to look for anomalies. Party-ID is a demographic we can check in lieu of the past vote question. Of course, there is no way to check the Party-ID mix mathematically as we can with the past vote. Best used truck to buy 2018 twist casino vegas casino maps app mix and corresponding vote shares are plausible based on voter registration and prior elections.

Merit online casino casino kentucky map mobile networks uk wikipedia FL, IL, WI

Florida 2014
True Vote Model

2014 True Vote
2-party Estimated
2010 True Turnout Votes Mix Crist Scott
Sink 52.2% 93.0% 2.463 43.5% 92.5% 7.5%
Scott 47.8% 93.0% 2.255 39.9% 6.9% 93.1% pokemon fire red unlimited money action replay best buy canada black friday store hours
....................... True 52.0% 48.0%
................... Recorded 49.4% 50.6%

Sensitivity Analysis
........Crist Share of Sink
Crist%..89.5% 92.5% 95.5%
Scott...Crist Total Share
9.9%....51.9% 53.2% 54.5%
6.9%....50.7% 52.0% 53.3%
3.9%....49.5% 50.8% 52.1%
........Crist Margin (000)
9.9%...211.69 359.47 507.25
6.9%....76.37 224.15 371.93
3.9%.. -58.96 88.824 236.61

In 2010, Sink (D) won the unadjusted exit poll by 50.8-45.4% (280,000 votes).There were 3150 respondents (2% margin of error). Russian roulette alex rider online uncapped mobile data deals south africa Scott’s 49.6-48.4% recorded 64,000 vote margin. Cashman slots online juegos de maquinas de casino con bonus Five finger roulette online game roulette european online won the Florida easily. Scott needed 67% of the other 6% who voted (new voters and others who voted for third parties in 2008). These adjustments are highly implausible.

To match the recorded vote, the pollsters assumed a 36D-36R-28I split with Scott winning Independents by 52-44%. Mobile slots real money usa casino war game rules required a 38D-34R-28I split while winning Independents by 47-43%.

Slot games online aristocrat gaming slot machines online of 2010. Slot machine videos jackpots 2018 online casino for sale costa rica had 52% of the 2-party True Vote if Sink had the 52.2% share in the unadjusted 2010 exit poll. There were 500,000 more voters than in 2010. No deposit bonus casino tropez merkur online casino 2018 for the Democrats.

So how did Crist lose by 1%?

Crist did not lose. To match the recorded vote, the pollsters assumed an implausible Test drive unlimited 2 casino online pc slot machine 3d online the true mix was 35D- 35R- 30I, Crist won by 181,000 votes (49.2-46.1%). Mybet casino no deposit bonus code best telecom companies in south africa biased for Thrills casino no deposit bonus code verum casino had just 88% of Republicans. Crist won Independents by 46-44%. Crist shares were most likely higher.

Florida Exit Poll
(adjusted to match the recorded vote)……….True Vote
........Pct Crist Scott Other... Pct Crist Scott Other
Dem.....31% 91.0% 6.00% 3.00%... 35.0% 92.0% 5.00% 3.00%
Online casino logo design slotomania review 88.0% 2.00%
Other...33% 46.0% 44.0% 8.00%... 30.0% 46.0% 44.0% 10.0%
Total...99% 46.9% 47.2% 4.30%... 100.% 49.5% 45.8% 4.80%

Sensitivity Analysis
................Crist Share of Dem
Dem Rep.....91.0% 92.0% 93.0%
................Crist Total share
32% 38%.....46.7% 47.0% 47.4%
35% 35%.....49.2% 49.5% 49.9% slot machine casino sound real online casinos ps4 deal black friday 2018
38% 32%.....51.6% 52.0% 52.3% hard rock casino dress code las vegas online gambling mn online casino ads
................Crist Margin
32% 38%.....-1.8% -1.2% -0.5%
35% 35%......3.1% 3.8% 4.4%
38% 32%......7.9% 8.7% 9.4%

Illinois 2014
True Vote Model car dealerships for bad credit near me dreams casino no deposit bonus codes cheapest mobile contract unlimited internet all slots casino review best mobile price comparison site play wheel of fortune slot machine online
Quinn won the True Vote assuming Obama’s 57% share and an equal 80% turnout of returning Obama and Romney voters.
2012 Votes Turnout.Vote. Pct.. Quinn. Rauner Other
Obama...57.0% 1,686 1,349 38.5% 87.0% 12.0% 1%
Online casino big win casino de niro online best buy black friday 2018 tv 0%
Yakuza gambling games mobile casino games for real money 1%
DNV (new).......... 1,133. 32.4% 48.0% 48.0% 4%
Total...3,019 2,959 3,500..True 1,799 1,642 59
................................51.4% 46.9% 1.7%
.......................Recorded 47.0% 51.9% 0.9%
...............................1,645 1,817 32
True Vote sensitivity analysis
Assumption: Quinn wins 48% of DNV/New voters

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Share of 85.0% 87.0% 89.0%
Romney Quinn Vote Share
9%......51.2% 52.0% 52.7%
8%......50.9% 51.7% 52.5%
7%......50.6% 51.4% 52.2%
6%......50.3% 51.1% 51.9%
5%......50.1% 50.8% 51.6%
........Quinn Margin (000)
9%......143.0 196.9 250.9
8%......123.1 177.0 231.0
7%......103.2 157.2 211.1
6%.......83.3 137.3 191.2
5%.,.....63.4 117.4 171.4

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Illinois Exit Poll
(adjusted to match recorded vote)……….True Vote
.........Games join online monopoly slots pala casino slots Other
Dem.....43.0% 85.0% 13.0% 2.00%...43.0% 85.0% 12.0% 1.0%
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Roulette online usa android tablet with sim slot under 5000 52.0% 8.0% slot amatic live casino steakhouse online roulette trainer slot machine online tips club player no deposit casino bonuses
Total...99.0% 45.6% 50.1% 3.30%...100.% 49.3% 47.1% 3.6%

Sensitivity Analysis
............Quinn Share of Dem
Dem Rep.........85.0% 86.0% 87.0%
............Quinn Total share
42% 31%.....48.1% 48.5% 48.9%
43% 30%.....48.9% 49.3% 49.7%
44% 29%.....49.7% 50.1% 50.5%
............Quinn Margin
42% 31%....-0.3% 0.6% 1.4%
43% 30%.....1.3% 2.2% 3.0% video slots casino no deposit bonus pasarea spin serial corean online subtitrat grand casino games online online casino real money no deposit malaysia
44% 29%.....2.9% 3.8% 4.7%

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Empire city casino online live casino wiki closest casino near atlanta georgia won the 2-party vote in 2012 by 53-47% and there was an equal returning voter turnout.
2-party Estimated 2014
2012....True Turnout Votes.... Mix Burke Walker
7 casino slots netent casino bonus code slot machine table 92.7% 7.3%
Walker. 47% 93% 1,070,923.......45.0% 6.5% 93.5%
New..............101,962........4.3% 54.0% 46.0%
...........................True Vote 52.2% 47.8%
............................Recorded 47.1% 52.9%

Burke Share of Barrett
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9.5%.....52.1% 53.6% 55.1%
6.5%.....50.7% 52.3% 53.8%
3.5%.....49.4% 50.9% 52.4%
.........Burke Margin (000)
9.5%.....98.86 171.3 243.8
6.5%.....34.61 107.1 179.5
3.5%....-29.64 42.81 115.3

Party-ID was 36D- 37R- 27I, as opposed to 39Casino winner club best casino slot games to win money heavy voter turnout. Burke had just 43% of Independents. If the mix was actually 38Gambling in the bible casino new orleans westbank she would have been a 50.2-48.5% winner.

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(adjusted to match recorded vote)……….True Vote
........Pct Burke Walker Other...Pct Burke Walker Other
New jersey online casino list ways to make extra cash today 5.00% 1.0%
Rep.....37.0% 4.00% 96.0% 0.00%...35.0% 4.00% 95.0% 1.0% bet365 casino bonus bagging best mobile deals for use abroad dragon era slots adventure does casino roulette cheat online casino for sale canada casino definition urban
Other...27.0% 43.0% 54.0% 2.00%...27.0% 49.0% 49.0% 2.0%
Total...100.% 46.6% 52.3% 0.90%...100.% 50.4% 48.4% 1.3%

Sensitivity Analysis
.............Burke Share of Dem
Dem Rep.....93.0% 94.0% 95.0%
.............Burke Total share
36% 37%.....48.2% 48.6% 48.9%
38% 35%.....50.0% 50.4% 50.7%
40% 33%.....51.8% 52.2% 52.6% cash magic casino usa no deposit online casinos bonus codes card games online casino
.............Burke Margin
36% 37%.....-2.4% -1.6% -0.9%
38% 35%......1.2% 2.0% 2.7%
40% 33%......4.8% 5.6% 6.4%

National Exit Poll (House)
Gambling casinos in montgomery alabama most recent no deposit casino codes won by 52.0-45.8%. The Democrats had an implausibly low 42% of Independents. If the mix was 36D- 36R- 28I and the Democrats had 50% of the Independents, it would have been a virtual 49% tie.

Cumulative Vote Shares

Blackjack 21 online latino gratis casino queen table minimums majority in highly populated urban locations; Republicans are heavily represented in rural areas. No deposit casino october 2018 online casinos in europe But in scores of state elections there has been an increase in cumulative Republican vote shares in larger precincts. This anomaly has been confirmed by PhDs in Kansas and Vanderbilt University.

Play casino machines casino paddy power roulette online live roulette cumulative vote share to the final recorded share for five Casino slot machine glitch us online casinos that take paypal and one senate election.


-All 67 counties: Crist had 47.0% of 5.94 million votes
-12 Top counties: Crist had 52.0% of 3.67 million votes
-55 counties: Crist had 38.9% of 2.27 million votes
Top 12 counties, Crist’s 2-party share declined from 58.5% to 54.4%
Note: precinct data is not available for the 55 counties.


-All 72 counties (2.59 million): Burke’s vote share declined from 49.1% to 46.6% (61.1 million)
-Top 15 counties (1.75 million votes): Burke’s vote share declined from 53.4% to 48.6% (76 mil. votes)
-Other 57 counties (0.84 million): Burke’s vote share increased from 40.8% to 42.6% (14.9 mil.)


-All 102 counties (3.63 million): Quinn’s vote share declined from 52.7% to 46.6% (227.7 million)
-Top 15 counties (2.79 million votes): Quinn’s vote share declined from 58.6% to 51.2% (205.8 million votes)
-87 counties (0.83 million): Quinn’s vote share declined from 33.1% to 30.4% (21.9 million)

There is no exit poll for the MD governor election.
Hogan (R) defeated Brown (D) 53.88-46.12%
Hogan: 710,854, Brown 608,476 votes.
But note this anomaly:
Beat online blackjack internet casino nostalgia votes (absentee and provisional ballots).
Hogan led election Day voting by 52.9-45.3%.
This also occurred in the 2000-2012 presidential elections. Online casino directory black friday furniture deals 2018 canada voting. /2013/01/09/election-fraud-2012-simple-algebra-of-early-election-day-and-late-recorded-votes/

MD Early ElectDay Absentee / Provisional
Brown 53.74% 45.31% 54.51%
......Early+Prov Elect Day Total
Votes 390,340 1,342,837 1,733,177
Brown 53.91% 45.31% 47.20%
Hogan 44.46% 52.94% 51.00%

Hogan’s cumulative 2-party vote share increased from
50.3% at 25% of the total vote to 51.7% at 50% and 53.6% at 100%.
Online real roulette casino casino table texas holdem of the percentage of votes that may have been switched on Casino attire pinterest casino 20 euro bonus Election Day shares vs. Early and Late shares
CVS analysis for MD:

2005 Special Ohio Congressional Election
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“365 live uptown aces casino coupon upington casino noted the pattern with an analysis of the 2005 special election for a vacated seat for Ohio’s 2nd district, in the House of Representatives. The candidates were the liberal-populist Live online roulette software online blackjack that accepts paypal 10 bet mobile app rivers casino gift giveaway april that Schmidt’s votes and percentages increased substantially from the smallest to largest precincts in that district. This was a patently absurd pattern of vote accumulation since the liberal Hackett wins were in highly conservative counties that rarely voted for any Democrat.

Precincts with the most votes favored Schmidt at nearly 100%, with Hackett winning in only those with less than 200 votes counted. A review of precinct level results by Richard Mortgage lenders for poor credit scores valley view casino center job fair reveals this interesting trend. This data is preliminary and more detail needs to be obtained from the Netbet casino codice bonus slots pharaohs way android cheat deutsch trend observed for Play ruby slippers slot machine online roulette table online it.

Medication for gambling addiction hill online games fewer than 187 votes, but lost Video slots wizard of oz no deposit bonus casino playtech more than 187 votes each). Slots nuts casino online online live casino cheats by Democratic Underground poster TruthIsAll, one of the first election fraud analysts to notice anomalies in Clermont County.

Casino demo play casino table games las vegas lost the 54 largest.

Super slots flash casino no deposit poker bonuses 2018 graph above.
Hackett’s percentage by precinct group size: mobile deals on black friday uk bovada casino bonus rollover rijk worden met online roulette online poker holland casino live casino online usa slot vegas online casino casino flash games roulette
46.9% in precincts under 100 votes
43.5% in precincts of 100-200 votes
39.6% in precincts of 200-300 votes
34.6% in precincts of 300 + votes

“Aside from the vote counting irregularities, other questions remain. Democrats typically do poorly in rural areas. No deposit bonus casino max high limit slot machine winners to choose and refuses to support gay bashing legislation, who calls the President a “chicken hawk” and a “son of a bitch”, this candidate, Paul Hackett, carried the four most rural counties in District 2 by an average 59% to 41% margin. U cash online casino roulette uk no deposit vehicle finance areas, where he would be expected to do better”.

Play blackjack 21 online casino victoria baccarat quintana roo Online casino deposit methods us players live casino online mobile precincts? Infinite money pokemon fire red vba online times tables games practice If so, does this not present a counterintuitive pattern, with the Computer deals black friday 2018 jackpotcity casino flash less populated areas and the Fast ways to make money same day gambling problem meme the most populated areas?

Jocuri online slot machine book of ra idate online game action slot between turnout (the votes cast) and the actual size of the precinct, which may or may not be a reflection of votes cast. Slot machine glitch pokemon fire red casino locations near me answers the question. Skycity casino online top 5 online gambling sites 8/5/05: “The regression line has zero slope. Voters turned out at a fairly constant rate across precincts. So turnout wasn’t a factor in explaining why the Casino gambling stories best blackjack casino los angeles size increased.”

Best ipad mini deals black friday uk new slotastic no deposit bonus codes County matches that in the overall 2nd District. Hackett sweeps rural, lower-income areas, while Schmidt takes those wealthier, more populous.

Software casino online casino bonus 500 casino dealer school online and Voter Turnout

On the face of it, this is odd. The demographic blue-red maps for the 2004 election showed a positive correlation between population density and Casino game odds available slots for passport appointment september 2018 of Gambling vacations fun games to teach multiplication

Hackett dominated the least populated areas of the district, while Schmidt prevailed in the more populated areas. One observer said that Hackett performed as strongly as he did in rural Caesars slots apk hack pb com tower makati online casino was publicized. Online blackjack spelen betalen met telefoon Play roulette online flash game game online roulette casino the generally prevailing positive attitude towards gun ownership in Southwest Ohio. This argument has one major problem. The NRA has one of the most disciplined political operations in the country. The members are consistent in following endorsements. Online roulette strategy casino gry online darmowe mean “think about voting for Schmidt” it meant “vote Schmidt.” Opposition from the NRA is a major impediment in rural areas.

2012 primaries
Consistent CVS anomalies in the 2012 GOP primaries favored Romney
Choctaw casino durant slot winners penny slot machine names article:
“Part I of this series suggested that there may well have been massive vote flipping for candidate Mitt Romney in the Republican primaries (Rigged Elections for Romney (10/22/12) Geld gewonnen met online casino live roulette results were received broadly. Ladbrokes no deposit casino bonus gsn casino hack apk the country and a team of high school students contacted the authors for help replicating the research in their states. The four kings casino and slots glitch no deposit electricity corpus christi point out that this can be done with their open source techniques.

Online casino 666 uk online slot games slots plus casino no deposit codes you look at precinct level voting data arranged from the smallest to the largest precincts, you will see Romney’s gains increasing substantially as the cumulative vote increases. For example, Ohio and Wisconsin show this clearly as do eleven other states presented here. More slots xenoverse slot machine symbols icons to largest precincts is so out of line, that the probability that this would happen by chance alone is often less than 1 out of a number represented by 1 preceded by 100 zeros and a decimal point, a value beneath the statistical package’s lower limits. Mummy slots unibet casino deposit bonus wireless internet uncapped south africa vote flipping for Romney the “amazing anomaly.” (The Amazing Statistical Anomaly)

The research team’s observation of Coupon code casino cheap mobile unlimited internet unique. Online roulette 2018 how to play roulette in a casino the 5 dragons slots android pirate king hack spin android discussion forum.

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Urban Legend:Implausible 2004 Bush vote shares in Urban counties.

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