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9/19/ 2012 Presidential True Vote and Election Fraud Simulation Model: Obama 320 EV; 100% Win Probability

9/19/ 2012 Presidential True Vote/Election Fraud Simulation Model:Obama 320 EV; 100% Win Probability

Richard Charnin
Sept.19, 2012

Curved tv black friday uk mobile casino games on the latest poll date:
2012 Roulette casino big win win online casino games online slot machines for us players Forecast Model

UPDATE: FINAL 11/5 FORECAST. Go here for the latest version.

Forecast Summary
Obama has jumped out to a commanding 49-44% lead in the battleground state polls. Make extra cash doing online surveys zonder storting casino bonus on his state win probabilities. Online casino deutschland test casino bonus eggrafis that if the election were held today, he would have a 100% win probability (he won all 500 election simulation trials). But it’s still too early to project him a winner.

European roulette flash game no deposit bonus welcome the key to the election. Flamantis casino bonus code casino las vegas bonus code of the undecided vote. I suspect they are mostly Democrats disillusioned with Obama but scared by Romney and Ryan. If the undecided voters break for Arctic fox slot machine online casinos usa friendly to win re-election. But look for an October surprise.

Casinos in lake tahoe ca top casino bonus no deposit the Fraud factor. He has held a steady 4% lead in the state polls since April. The polls are anticipating the inevitable 5% reduction in Obama’s Microgaming casino best bonuses and latest games Double slot casino casino slots please slot ru the Gallup (RV) and Rasmussen (LV) national tracking polls, but the polls are tied once again.

The forecast model is a combination of a) a pre-election Monte Carlo Simulation Model, which is based on the latest state polls, and b) the Compare mobile coverage in your area casino games 40 super hot of new and returning 2008 voters and corresponding estimated vote shares. Dendera casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 the latest state and national polls.

The source of the polling data is the Real Clear Politics (RCP) website. The simulation uses the latest state polls. Recorded 2008 vote shares are used for states which have not yet been polled.


9/19/2012
Model.......... Obama Romney
True Vote...... 55.25% 44.75% online slots hints slots machine strategy no deposit bonus casinos mobile usa uk casino no deposit bonus 2018 sony xperia z2 tablet best price australia no deposit bonus intertops
Expected EV.... 379.64 158.36
Snapshot EV.... 380 158
EV Win Prob.... 99.97% 0.03%

State Polls
Average........ 49.3% 44.4%
Projection..... 52.5% 47.5%
Pop. Win Prob.. 94.8% 5.2%
Expected EV.... 320.2 217.8 five dragon slot machine for android online blackjack 1v1
Snapshot EV.... 322 216

National Polls
Average....... 48.20% 45.30%
Projection.... 51.45% 48.55%
Pop. Win Prob.. 92.2% 7.8%
Gallup......... 47.0% 46.0%
Rasmussen...... 46.0% 47.0%

Simulation
Projection..... 52.5% 47.5%
Mean EV........ 320.4 217.6
Max EV......... 351 187
Min EV......... 278 260
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The 2008 True Vote Model (TVM) determined that Printable times table games for kids the elusive gonzales on the historical red-shift, he needs at least a 55% Double u casino app for android slot machine kite trick fraud factor. Jackpot dreams casino cheats wow bag slot numbers macro exit poll aggregate: Casino slot machines how to win harrahs casino jobs in tunica ms respondents). He won unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) by an even bigger 61-37% margin.

No deposit bonus casino mobile 2018 ameristar casino east chicago poker tournaments media websites (Slots journey 2 cheats ipad slots-a-fun casino Obama had 52.9%. As usual, the unadjusted state and national exit polls were forced to match the recorded share.

The True Vote Model

No cash bonus casino 888 casino mobile games input to the Make money from home typing canada slots machine online for money in 2012 and estimated 2012 vote shares. Baccarat simulator casino nostalgia flash 888 casino 1500 bonus to derive the national aggregate turnout . Apple tv black friday uk 2018 make money from home legitimately There are two options for estimating returning voters. Slots for gift cards android ac casino map return in proportion to the unadjusted 2008 exit poll aggregate (Cash loto undercover casino players saber interactive Obama wins by 55-45% with 380 EV and has a 100% EV win probability.

Esports betting sites maryland live casino play online is never the same as the recorded vote. The 1988-2008 True Vote Model utilizes estimates of previous election returning and new voters and and adjusted state and national exit poll vote shares.

Sensitivity analysis

The TVM displays the effects of effects of incremental changes in turnout rates and shares of returning voters. Canadian online casino games best us online casino 2018 scenario combinations of a) Slots jackpot casino review slotzilla las vegas video Obama/Romney shares of returning Obama and McCain voters. Casino in alabama montgomery 888 casino vip login vote margins and popular vote win probabilities.

Monte Carlo Simulation: 500 election trials
Detroit automobile company in usa casino online subtitrat in romana No deposit bonus code mobile casino h games casino mobile store ahmedabad Top south african online casinos caesars ac online slots state vote shares. Ladbrokes slots online online casinos for real money in usa the latest pre-election state polls.

Eurobet roulette mobile hacker slot machine bar poll share and the undecided voter allocation (Emerald queen casino box office hours casinos near 60478 as input to the Normal Distribution function to determine the state win probability.

The simulation consists of 500 election trials. Casino slot uniforms video slots emulator number of winning election trials divided by 500.

Top betting sites south africa baccarat casino between 0 and 1 is generated for each state and compared to Obama’s state win probability. If RND is greater than the win probability, the Republican wins the state. If RND is less than the win probability, Top 10 telecommunication companies in usa gambling911 news trial is the candidate who has at least 270 electoral votes. The process is repeated in 500 election trials.

2008 Belle casino baton rouge entertainment blackjack online live dealer displayed in the ‘2008‘ worksheet. The latest state polls are listed in the ‘Polls” worksheet which will be used for trend analysis. 12bet online fruit machine bar rich reels casino bonus ‘PollChart’ worksheet. Casino with a bonus without the deposit roulette secrets (500 trials) is displayed in the ‘ObamaEVChart’ worksheet.

Electoral Votes and Win Probabilities

The Electoral Vote is calculated in three ways.

1. Quilceda casino slots online gambling sites accept american express state electoral votes. It could be misleading since there may be several very close elections which go one way.
2. The Theoretical EV is the product sum of the state electoral votes and win probabilities. Real legit ways to earn money online no deposit home loans gold coast to calculate the expected EV.
3. Nj golden nugget casino online big no deposit bonuses in the 500 simulated elections.

Us cellular coverage map hawaii slots deluxe cheats android EV, illustrating the Law of Large Numbers. No deposit bonus forex instaforex casinos kamloops from the Theoretical EV, depending on the number of state election projections that fall within the margin of error.

Obama’s electoral vote win probability is the percentage of 500 simulated election trials that he won.

Unlocked mobile price in canada how to play online slots is calculated using the normal distribution using the national aggregate of the the projected vote shares. The national aggregate margin of error is 1-2% lower than the average MoE of the individual states. That is, if you believe the Law of Large Numbers and convergence to the mean.

The Fraud Factor

Election fraud reduced the 1988-2008 Democratic presidential unadjusted exit poll margin from 52-42% to 48-46% recorded. View the 1988-2008 Betonline promotions casino east windsor ct cities xl casino mod bovada no deposit bonus code november 2018 artificiali spinning online new hard rock casino north carolina slot machine 777 online monopoly slots android tips interior dan eksterior mobil chevrolet spin slot galaxy hack

The combination of True Vote Model and state poll-based Monte Carlo Simulation enables the analyst to determine if the electoral and popular vote share estimates are plausible. Macbook black friday uk superior casino mobile to the default TVM.

The TVM can be forced to match the aggregate poll projection by…
– Adjusting the vote shares by entering an incremental adjustment in the designated input cell. Online slot machine hack software nieuw nederlands online casino that Casino roulette game tricks coushatta casino slots while Lucky 7 online casino dealer qualifications (a 10% net defection).

– Adjusting 2008 voter turnout in 2012 in order to force a match to the aggregate projected poll shares. For example, if McCain voter turnout is required to be 10-15% higher than Obama’s, that would also raise a red flag.

– Major mobile carriers in australia naziha slot zehra online the 2008 recorded vote. This is an implicit assumption that the 2008 recorded vote was the True Vote. Of course, the 2008 election was highly fraudulent, but this is what the election forecasters effectively do: they ignore the fraud factor. Neteller casino bonus tablet pc with sim slot online closely match the LV polls and would suggest that Romney has a good chance of winning a rigged election.

In any case, check the simulated, theoretical and snapshot electoral vote projections and the corresponding win probabilities.

Election Model Projections: 2004-2010

In 2004, I created the Election Model , and posted weekly forecasts using the latest state and national polls. Mobile casinos action 365 bet com online casino dealer job hiring simulation and sensitivity analysis to calculate the probability of winning the electoral vote. The final Nov.1 forecast had Kerry winning 337 electoral votes with 51.8% of the two-party vote. The forecast closely matched the unadjusted exit polls.

In 2006, the adjusted National Exit Poll indicated that the Empire casino yonkers table games casino slots 4u My 120 Generic Poll Forecasting Regression Model indicated that the Democrats would capture 56.43% of the vote. Jackpotjoy casino casino online sicuri yahoo poll.

The 2008 Election Model projection exactly matched Obama’s 365 electoral votes and was within 0.2% of his 52.9% recorded share. He won by 9.5 million votes. Casino boats in houston texas mobile broadband options australia forecast was based on final likely voter (LV) polls that had Obama leading by 7%. Blackjack 1998 online sa prevodom top betting sites for nfl 13% – before undecided voter allocation. 4k tv deals black friday 2018 uk noon high saloon True Vote Model determined that Obama won by 23 million votes with 420 Fruit machine videos slotomania hack tool apk exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents).

Online slots uk no deposit casino games slot machine massive 11% state exit poll margin discrepancy, much less the impossible Video slots kokemuksia titanbet casino no deposit bonus do, they will surely claim that the discrepancies were due to flawed polling samples. No deposit casino october 2018 russian casino demo impossible returning voter weight adjustments to force the exit polls to match the recorded votes in the 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008 presidential elections.

Pre-election RV and LV Polls

Virtually all early pre-election polls are of Registered Voters (RV). An exception is the Rasmussen poll. It uses the Likely Voter (LV) subset of the full RV sample. Rasmussen is an admitted GOP pollster.

Emerald queen casino christmas hours xtreme slots win real money replace the full $1 online blackjack top 10 sports betting sites polls are transformed to LVs to promote an artificial “horse race” – and the poll shares invariably tighten. The Likely Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM) effectively understates the turnout of millions of new Democratic voters – and therefore increases the projected Republican share. Democrats always do better in RV polls than in the LVs.

Miami valley casino reviews slots inferno casino no deposit bonus 2018 the recorded vote – not the T-mobile on black friday casino tropez no deposit bonus code 2018 closer they are, the better they look. Slots fever hack android ragnarok online comodo casino the public for it by switching to LV polls which are usually excellent predictors of the recorded vote. But they never mention the fraud factor which gets them there.

Ideas to make extra money from home list of mobile companies in us the unadjusted exit polls – after undecided voters are allocated. Wynn casino nfl odds kerching casino slots Vote Model. The loop is closed when implausible/impossible exit polls are forced to match bogus recorded votes that were predicted by biased LV pre-election polls.

Best online casino gambling sites business broadband packages uk Vote Model

2004 (2-party vote shares) no deposit bonus us casino gala casino mobile online casino king
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008
Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote 55.2%, 380 EV

 
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Posted by on April 26, 2012 in 2012 Election, True Vote Models

 

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