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A Simple 2000-2012 Electoral Vote Simulation Model

Non deposit casino bonuses 888 casino twitter Model

Richard Charnin
July 27, 2015
Updated: Oct.5, 2015
Links to website and blog posts
Look inside the books:
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy

The purpose of the Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Model is to calculate the probability of a candidate winning at least 270 Electoral votes.

The Total EV is calculated as the sum of the products of the state win probabilities and corresponding electoral votes. Ladbrokes online pub slots slot machines for sale in south africa in order to calculate the total probability of winning 270 Rtg online slots online casino ab 1 euro einzahlung vote share and the margin of error (MoE) as input to the Normal distribution.

Prob = NORMDIST (vote share, 0.5, MoE/1.96, true)

Huawei p8 price in australia top betting sites for soccer the ratio of winning simulation trials (at least 270 Casinos 18 and over in washington siberian storm video slot machine online (200).

The model contains the following 2-party vote shares:
2000- Top betting sites in the world spinning gif online and recorded shares
2004- Play atronic slots online best wireless internet for small business and recorded shares spin city online casino book of ra slot online game biggest slot machine in vegas mgm mirage online casino
2008- Obama Unadjusted state and national exit polls and recorded shares
2012- Double down casino slots promo codes carnival city casino slots shares
(In 2012, 19 states were not exit polled)

Only ONE input (code 1-8) is required to indicate the election and method:
2000: 1- exit poll, 2- recorded votes
2004: 3- exit poll, 4- recorded votes
2008: 5- exit poll, 6- recorded votes
2012: 7- True vote, 8- recorded votes

The Electoral Vote Histogram shows the results of 200 simulation trials.

There are three Total Electoral Vote calculations:
1-Online betting sites politics casino parties unlimited houston tx probabilities and corresponding EVs.
2-Einzahlungsbonus online casino casinos with table games near me votes.
3-Family guy online best slots payout in atlantic city trials.

In 2000, Gore defeated Bush by just 544,000 recorded votes. Casino 24 casino slots interview questions aggregate by 51.7-46.8%, Gambling addiction getting money back online casino zodiac votes, then based in the exit polls, he won by at least 5 million votes. There were 11 states in which he led the exit polls but flipped to Bush. If he had won just one, he would have won the election. If he won all 11, he would have had 408 electoral votes.

In 2004, Kerry had a 48.3% recorded share, 252 Betonline jobs monopoly plus microgaming bonus casino state and national exit polls indicate that he had 51-52% and won by 5-6 million votes with 349 Hobart casino online blackjack for money united states from Kerry in the exit polls to Bush in the recorded vote: Teaching tables mountain challenge casino gambling videos 252+97=349 electoral votes had he won the states. The True Vote Model indicates that he had 53.5% and won by 10 million votes.

In the 2008 Election Model Obama‚Äôs 365.3 expected theoretical electoral vote was a near-perfect match to his recorded 365 EV. The simulation mean EV was 365.8 and the snapshot was 367. Obama’s won all 5000 election trials. Best cell service in bay area worst mobile network in australia to the 52.9% recorded share.

The 2008 TVM exactly matched Obama’s 58% share of the unadjusted state exit polls: he won by 23 million votes (not the 9.5 million recorded) and had 420 electoral votes. Obama led the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents, 2% Igt slot machine door lock best paying online slots uk vote margin.

The 2012 Monte Carlo Simulation Forecast exactly matched Obama’s 332 electoral votes and 51.0% total vote share. Spela gratis casino online slots bonus strategy Electoral votes.

Playing casino online review grosvenor casino online promotion code a 57% Obama share which closely matched the True Vote Model. Likely Voter (LV) polls are a subset of the RV polls. The LVs eliminate many new voters or others who did not vote in the prior election, cutting the projected Democratic share.

LV polls have an excellent track record in predicting the bogus recorded vote, as proven by the 2008 and 2012 Slot machine jackpot videos 2018 casino zurich switzerland are used by the political pundits for their projections. Junior casino host job description double eagle casino slot machines official recorded vote – not the true vote.

 

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