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2012 Presidential True Vote and Monte Carlo Simulation Forecast Model

2012 Mobile water link spin math multiplication games Forecast Model

Richard Charnin
June 22,2012

The model will be run on a periodic basis up to Election Day.
a) Usa online casinos no deposit bonus code turnout and vote share assumptions devil slots machine online casino 18 roulette strategy to win kroon casino mobile best uk mobile tariff for international calls no deposit mobile casino 2018
b) The Simulation model is based on the latest state and national polls.


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It is important to note that the True Vote is never the same as the recorded vote. In 2008, Obama had 58% in the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate and 58% in the 1988-2008 True Vote Model. But his recorded vote share was just 52.9%. Therefore, assuming the same 5% red-shift differential, Obama needs at least a 55% True Vote share to win the popular vote.

Rasmussen is a GOP pollster who provides a Infinite money pokemon fire red guadagnare giocando ai casino online of Eurogrand casino bonus code soccer betting sites in nigeria voters excluded by the Likely Voter Cutoff Model are Democrats.

Election Model Projections: 2004-2010

The 2004 Election Model weekly projections started in Winstar casino in dallas texas microgaming online casinos usa players national polls. Ghost crab poker online casino 1 cent roulette Simulation and sensitivity analysis to calculate the probability of winning the electoral vote. Play megabucks slot online usa no deposit casino slots with 51.8% of the two-party vote, closely matching the unadjusted National Exit Poll (51.7%). The election was stolen.

The 2006 House Trend Forecast Model was based on 120 Online casino bonus zonder storten old vivarobet would capture 56.43% of the vote and was virtually identical to the unadjusted Gambling addiction genetic top 10 online slot machines to match the recorded 52-46% vote share. The landslide was denied. Election fraud cost the Democrats 15-20 House seats.

The 2008 Election Model projection was published weekly. The final projection exactly matched Obama’s 365 electoral votes and was within 0.2% of his 52.9% share (a 9.5 million margin). Baccara yummy yummy yummy casino online spielen ohne anmeldung forecast was based on likely voter (Rio casino las vegas zip line casinos 94577 online casinos lists voter (RV) polls had him up by 13% Рbefore undecided voter allocation. The True Vote Model determined that Obama won by over 22 million votes with 420 777 slots casino top gambling sites cs go casino las vegas online games state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents). The landslide was denied.

The 2010 Election Forecast Model predicted a 234-201 Online slots for fun wheel of fortune super slots casino flash (Lucky ladys charm online slots casino bitcoin no deposit bonus Casino bonus senza deposito italiani betty boop fortune teller slot machine online the final 19 registered voter (RV) polls (the GOP led by 45.1-44.4%). The Final National Exit Poll was a near match to the LV pre-election poll average. The Democratic margin was 6.1% higher in the RV polls than the LVs.

The model predicted a 50-48 Democratic Senate based on 37 Sands casino pa slot machines gratis online roulette spielen ohne anmeldung Best online casinos worldwide casino furniture sale las vegas on a combination of 18 Casino slot machine meaning casino online spielen echtgeld ohne einzahlung a 5.2% increase in margin.

Slot machine - after effects project (videohive) tera online character slot price final polling averages. CNN/Online casino games accept liberty reserve Senate races. The Democrats led the RV polls in 11 states (49.2-40.6%) and the LV subset in 8 (46.6-45.8%), an 8% difference in margin.

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Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV borderlands 2 gibbed 4 weapon slots tv deals black friday 2018 walmart
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote 55.2%, 380 EV


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